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[Mato]

Why is PSP hardware so high? What happened to Nintendo's domination?

 

[jj984jj]

Why is PSP hardware so high? What happened to Nintendo's domination?

They ran out of colors.

 

[PantherLotus]

Well, Smash went:

816K
266K
165K
81K


MK Wii has gone:

608K
201K
143K


So it already looks to me like MK Wii is starting to show better legs.

"Better legs" is not the conclusion I would have come up with.

 

[Paracelsus]

I can name plenty of platform centric precedents if you'd like though?

It'd be interesting to know which ones. Please name them.

 

[Gaborn]

Why is PSP hardware so high? What happened to Nintendo's domination?

Nintendo still has around a 13 million unit hardware lead.

 

[jarrod]

It'd be interesting to know which ones. Please name them.

Sure...


Ridge Racer 7
Gundam Crossfire
Virtua Fighter 5
Gundam Musou
Armored Core 4
Mingol 5
Shin Sangoku Musou 6
GT5 Prologue
Disgaea 3
RGG Kenzan

...I could keep going if you like? :lol

 

[kottila]

"Better legs" is not the conclusion I would have come up with.

Really? The drop is higher week-to-week for SSB than for MKW. (Drawing conclusions from small datasets FTW)

 

[Mato]

Nintendo still has around a 13 million unit hardware lead.

Yes, obviously I'm talking about weekly sales.

 

[test_account]

Sure...


Ridge Racer 7
Gundam Crossfire
Virtua Fighter 5
Gundam Musou
Armored Core 4
Mingol 5
Shin Sangoku Musou 6
GT5 Prologue
Disgaea 3
RGG Kenzan

...I could keep going if you like? :lol

Please keep going, i want the full list

 

[PantherLotus]

Really? The drop is higher week-to-week for SSB than for MKW. (Drawing conclusions from small datasets FTW)

yeah, exactly. of all the weeks to say 'better legs', the 3rd week in a row it has posted lower sales than its comparison isn't it. maybe next week, but i'll be surprised if it hits more than 80k.

to the point, i was saying that "having a feeling" when in truth there probably IS a little bit of logic there isn't a great point. but drawing a conclusion from smaller drops, comparable sales and continued success (shocking success at that) on the DS, that would be something not worth debating after 3 weeks.

the point stands. we can debate this next week, or even better, after 8-12 weeks of data.

 

[Forgotten Ancient]

"Better legs" is not the conclusion I would have come up with.

There are multiple conclusions one could draw from this chart. MK having better legs being one of them.

 

[PantherLotus]

i think we have a fundamental disconnect on what "better legs" means here on gaf. anybody care to take a stab at it before i get extra schmucky?

 

[Forgotten Ancient]

Well, it would obviously be nicer to have more data points in the future, but when I think of legs I think of % drop from weeks previous.

If a game that started out with 10,000,000 sales dropped to 500,000 to 100,000 to 0, would you say that had better legs than a game that went from 400,000 to 350,000 to 300,000, to 250,000?

I don't care how schmucky you can get...you just make an ass of yourself.

 

[DNF]

MKWII is clearly "closing the gap"

 

[Phife Dawg]

Two months from TP's release would be between the weeks where it was 394K and 404K. Current highest PS3 game is Hot Shots 5 at 384K as of February 11. From the end of 2007 to that point it was averaging ~1.7K a week. If that rate didn't drop it might have passed the ~400K TP was at by now.

Which is rather funny thinking back and remembering people proclaiming TP as a failure and the death of gaming imminent etc.

Didn't they only ship like a 100,00 copies of Valkyria. So how is selling 78000 copies in its first week a failure. Why is there one standard for Wii/DS games as far as weather a game is a success and and a different one for Ps3/PsP games?

Selling 40k on the first day was rather meh, even if it was to be expected. Most people (myself included) thought it would follow the usual pattern and that most first week sales would consist of its first day sales, to actually double first day sales is not bad at all. OK start for sure.

 

[kottila]

i think we have a fundamental disconnect on what "better legs" means here on gaf. anybody care to take a stab at it before i get extra schmucky?

I've seen people shouting about legs if a game sells any copies in week 2.

 

[AnimeTheme]

Okay... but how "high end" was ASH in terms of production value? What previously successful SRPG series did we get from Mistwalker or Racjin? What sort of promotion and advertising did ASH get?

It is definitely "high end" as a DS project. Mistwalker is new yeah, but we all know (or at least a significant portion of the target gamers know) who are behind this company. Lastly, the game was published by Nintendo, and you can say for sure that this game wouldn't go unpromoted and unnoticed.

 

[PantherLotus]

Well, it would obviously be nicer to have more data points in the future, but when I think of legs I think of % drop from weeks previous.

If a game that started out with 10,000,000 sales dropped to 500,000 to 100,000 to 0, would you say that had better legs than a game that went from 400,000 to 350,000 to 300,000, to 250,000?

...but that's not what is happening. we can talk % drops all day but when a title has sold fewer titles each week that its been on the board then we're really not comparing similar things at all.

i see your point (of futility) but it appears we're in a meta conversation about the meaning of legs and the semantics of percentage drops when we all know that there hasn't been enough data to say much, except for "MKW is clearly selling less."

if your assertion that it has "better legs" is just another way saying "it isn't dropping as quickly," you're saying that you're content with non-statements and can't make further analyses, especially after looking at the same chart that i'm looking at.

 

[jarrod]

It is definitely "high end" as a DS project. Mistwalker is new yeah, but we all know (or at least a significant portion of the target gamers know) who are behind this company. Lastly, the game was published by Nintendo, and you can say for sure that this game wouldn't go unpromoted and unnoticed.

Eh, basically every impression was that the game feels cheap (8bit map graphics and all) and assumptions were made that Racjin was hired specifically because they *are* cheap. It also started the trend of Nintendo's famous nondisclousure and days-before-release halfhearted promotion for (promising) external products. See also; Soma Bringer.

This really isn't at all like Valkyria frankly, ASH wasn't exactly a gorgeous HD game from the makers of the most popular last gen SRPG series.

 

[Forgotten Ancient]

...but that's not what is happening. we can talk % drops all day but when a title has sold fewer titles each week that its been on the board then we're really not comparing similar things at all.

i see your point (of futility) but it appears we're in a meta conversation about the meaning of legs and the semantics of percentage drops when we all know that there hasn't been enough data to say much, except for "MKW is clearly selling less."

if your assertion that it has "better legs" is just another way saying "it isn't dropping as quickly," you're saying that you're content with non-statements and can't make further analyses, especially after looking at the same chart that i'm looking at.

I'm saying that a title that sold 200k less versus another title that'll end up "crossing streams" that the better selling game at week 4 or 5 has better legs. I'm not saying either have great legs, but there is one that's better of the two and it isn't Brawl.

As far as "being content with making non-statements", you succeeded in your shmuckery.

 

[Tmac]

SSB second week drop: 67,4%
MKW second week drop: 66,9%

SSB third week drop: 37,9%
MMK third week drop: 28,8%


Both are very close. MMK have only a sigtly smother drop. I don't think (with that numbers so far) you can make any conslusion about mmk having better legs.

 

[Jocchan]

There are multiple conclusions one could draw from this chart. MK having better legs being one of them.

Is "no conclusion yet" another?

what "better legs" means here on gaf

philharrison_lookalike_woman.jpg

 

[kswiston]

Here, I made a quick chart tracking the cumulative sales of the top three 2008 releases by week:

As you can see, while MKWii is dropping better percentage-wise than SSBB, it is still losing ground each week. We'll see if this changes in the future.

 

[jarrod]

How's MKWii compare to MKDS?

 

[PantherLotus]

nice chart! it shows the futility of talking about legs at this point, especially when the orginal assertion by shuelma is that its "legs" would carry it to a better lifetime total.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

How's MKWii compare to MKDS?

Mario Kart group. More specifically Mario Kart DS, since I've only got up one week of the data for Mario Kart Wii.

First few weeks for DS version:

224,411
159,994
285,170
130,149
150,383

Thanks to the early December release it had a pretty big post-launch bump there, but it seems MKWii has done in three weeks what it took MKDS five weeks to reach, so it's got a head start. From week six out MKDS is below 100K, it's just kept going and going.

 

[kswiston]

How's MKWii compare to MKDS?

MKWii is about 280k units ahead after Week 3. MKDS had the advantage of launching in December, so while it opened at only 224k units, it was past 1M units by Week 7.

EDIT: Beaten with a better explanation.

 

[Pureauthor]

nice chart! it shows the futility of talking about legs at this point, especially when the orginal assertion by shuelma is that its "legs" would carry it to a better lifetime total.

It's 'schuelma', BTW.

 

[sticksave]

I think the upcoming Gran Turismo Mobile game will really cement its position as a gaming system. Atleast I hope it does.

I missed that, Gran Turismo Mobile is actually going to become a reality? I'm stunned I thought it had completely turned into vaporware

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

15. Vantage Master Portable (PSP) 12.000 [12.000]

3k first day, 12k first week? Here's some hope Falcom is happy and after Sora no Kiseki The 3rd we get Ys Origins and Ys Oath in Felghana. And that someone actually brings them overseas...that requires lots more hope though, sadly.

 

[schuelma]

nice chart! it shows the futility of talking about legs at this point, especially when the orginal assertion by shuelma is that its "legs" would carry it to a better lifetime total.

I really don't know why you are all of a sudden being a complete ass (oh wait I do- you're still being pissy about Amirox taking your charts away :lol :lol ) but it is really getting annoying. My initial statement was a statement that has been made by numerous sales agers before the fucking game even came out ("I bet MK:Wii will sell more than Smash in the long run. It's much more casual friendly, etc."). I made my statement after seeing Smash really slow down and after perceiving what to me is the start of legs for MK, especially given Golden Week hitting. I see no reason you picked on my statement, other than to just feed your ego a bit after Amirox made you cry. It wasn't a statement based on the Console Wars, or Wii bias, or fuck even Mario Kart bias. IT WAS A PREDICTION.

Yes, this is Sales Age, where we like our logic and facts. But that doesn't mean we have to qualify every fucking prediction with graphs and numbers- that is part of the fun of these threads- making observations and predictions, then seeing if the data bears them out.

 

[schuelma]

It's 'schuelma', BTW.

Damn straight! :lol :lol

 

[Forgotten Ancient]

schuelma > panterlothus

 

[charlequin]

PSP is never going to pull developers away from the DS, but hopefully the moderately improved sales of PSP games (when PSP games are actually released) during the last six months will encourage more publishers to actually develop PSP games.

Yes. In the ideal situation, the steadily improved performance of the PSP will pull developers away from the PS3 and Xbox 360.

I'm starting to agree with others that Mario Kart might just beat out Smash Bros. over its lifetime.

Oddly enough, Smash seems about ready to come out of the oven.

So, what's the last new franchise SRPG title that sold significantly more than 78k copies in its opening week in Japan?

Good question. Moor-Angol's site only takes PS2 sales down to 200k, so I can't check what might qualify. My questions would be, though: a) how many new IP RPGs in general beat that number last generation (I see three: Drakengard, Radiata Stories, and Rogue Galaxy) and b) how many new IP SRPGs were there in total last generation (did anyone launch a new SRPG IP besides NI and Idea Factory?)

Anyway, it's one thing to suggest that perhaps SPRGs sell worse than RPGs (this is a believable conclusion, though one I'm skeptical has the level of correlation you're suggesting) but to hold this up as having a dramatically more relevant effect on a title's sales than the extremely well-documented effects of its platform strikes me as... odd, at very least.

 

[jarrod]

3k first day, 12k first week? Here's some hope Falcom is happy and after Sora no Kiseki The 3rd we get Ys Origins and Ys Oath in Felghana. And that someone actually brings them overseas...that requires lots more hope though, sadly.

I thought they were holding off on Ys specifically because it's more bankable for licensing? After the Konami disaster though, maybe everyone's afraid to bite? :lol

They should do Xanadu Next too if possible, if those old N-Gage agreements don't block it.

 

[icecream]

This really isn't at all like Valkyria frankly, ASH wasn't exactly a gorgeous HD game from the makers of the most popular last gen SRPG series.

Really? What last gen SRPG game would that be?

 

[Durante]

Anyway, it's one thing to suggest that perhaps SPRGs sell worse than RPGs (this is a believable conclusion, though one I'm skeptical has the level of correlation you're suggesting) but to hold this up as having a dramatically more relevant effect on a title's sales than the extremely well-documented effects of its platform strikes me as... odd, at very least.

I don't think I did any of the things you allege here (suggesting a level of correlation beyond "more than 0" or holding it up as dramatically more relevant). I merely contested the assertion that "This isn't an issue of genre". In fact I'm quite convinced that a comparable game would have sold significantly better on PS2 during its heyday. (I'm less sure that any current platform would have been much better though) It's a lamentable state of affairs really -- but 78k (out of 100) first week is somewhat above abject failure at least.

 

[jarrod]

Really? What last gen SRPG game would that be?

Sakura Taisen obv. What console SRPGs sold better last gen... not Fire Emblem, Arc Lad or Front Mission afaik?

Actually, I guess SRT must've been the reigning champ, but license derivitaive IPs sort of have an unfair advantage. Still, Sakura Taisen would've come in second, despite seeing a generational decline from the series heights on Saturn.

 

[Laguna]

100k were retail-orders. Who knows what Sega´s expectations were. I doubt any publisher would greenlight a relative high budget for a game and then be happy with 150k. Does anyone know how it was marketed? At least there is Golden Week to sustain its sales.

 

[icecream]

Sakura Taisen obv. What console SRPGs sold better last gen... not Fire Emblem, Arc Lad or Front Mission afaik?

As you stated Sakura Taisen is from the Sega Saturn era, where it made the bulk of its sales... not quite last gen.

And I'm not sure with labeling it an SRPG either.

 

[ksamedi]

Yes. In the ideal situation, the steadily improved performance of the PSP will pull developers away from the PS3 and Xbox 360.

The ideal situation would be that software houses hire new fresh talent, expand there development teams and develop more software. That way, software houses won't have to pull developers away from 360 or PS3. Thats what growth is all about.

 

[jarrod]

As you stated Sakura Taisen is from the Sega Saturn era, where it made the bulk of its sales... not quite last gen.

And yet, it was still the 2nd best selling SRPG series last gen. ST5 sold around 250k iirc, and was continually delayed and generally panned. Sakura was on the decline sure, but so were nearly all of SEGA's games after they went 3rd party.

 

[PantherLotus]

Damn straight! :lol :lol

kinda gettin bent out of shape for a simple prediction, aren't ya? i'm not attacking your character or abilitities, just making logical points. i apologize if i hurt your feelings though and not sure why you would attempt an ad hom against me. you of all people are above that.

that being said, i should have known "i have a feeling" meant "i've done all the research and have come to a logical conclusion and thus make the following prediction..."

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

And yet, it was still the 2nd best selling SRPG series last gen. ST5 sold around 250k iirc, and was continually delayed and generally panned. Sakura was on the decline sure, but so were nearly all of SEGA's games after they went 3rd party.

I think you mean ST4 on DC (or the original ST on PS2) because ST5 did pretty poorly...

　▼　Sakura Taisen: Atsuki Chishio Ni  	      	03.02.27  	PS2  	235,622
　▼　Sakura Taisen Monogatari 	  	  	04.03.18 	PS2 	73,091
　▼　Sakura Taisen V Episode 0 	      	 	04.09.22 	PS2 	61,879
　▼　Sakura Taisen 3  	  	  	  	05.02.24  	PS2  	51,563
　▼　Sakura Taisen 5: Saraba Itoshiki Hito Yo 	05.07.07 	PS2 	145,647

 

[charlequin]

I don't think I did any of the things you allege here

I think I must have accidentally confused your position with someone else's. Sorry about that!

I agree that an equivalent last-gen version of this game would have sold much better on PS2, and that it wouldn't have performed any better on any other currently available platform. If it actually hits ~150k lifetime sales that would probably be the absolute ceiling the game could have achieved in Japan no matter what platform(s) it went on this gen -- that'd put it in the top 10 HD games, if I'm not mistaken.

The ideal situation would be that software houses hire new fresh talent, expand there development teams and develop more software.

To a large degree, developers can't afford that. Each additional team you have is constantly costing you large set amounts of money on a weekly basis that can only be recouped upon release of your software. In the current environment, way more titles are just fighting to break even, which means the number of software companies who can afford to float extra $5-10 million development budgets out there in the hopes of eventually recouping are a lot smaller than they used to be.

I say HD -> PSP because thus far most games being released could be done within the PSP's restrictions, but with lower operating budgets; the PSP seems to drastically undersell its install base but I don't think it's underselling PS3 software in absolutee units.

 

[Forgotten Ancient]

kinda gettin bent out of shape for a simple prediction, aren't ya? i'm not attacking your character or abilitities, just making logical points. i apologize if i hurt your feelings though and not sure why you would attempt an ad hom against me. you of all people are above that.

that being said, i should have known "i have a feeling" meant "i've done all the research and have come to a logical conclusion and thus make the following prediction..."

You...what's your deal man? At least when ethel is being condescending he's sometimes funny.

And predictions are little more than hunches based on historical data and a gut feeling. Asking someone to substantiate everything they say in a sales age thread (or most anything gaming related) is blatant douchebaggery.

 

[PantherLotus]

last comment on the subject: it wasn't a "prediction" until holes were poked in it. but if you want that last word on it, be my guest.

 

[Minsc]

Asking someone to substantiate everything they say in a sales age thread (or most anything gaming related) is blatant douchebaggery.

Wow. Just wow. God forbid someone wants a discussion and cares enough to debate an issue on a point.

If you don't want your comments to be discussed, perhaps keep them to yourself?

 

[Pureauthor]

Here's my suggestion: You're all douchebags, for reasons which may not be in the slightest way related to anything happening in this thread.

 

[Forgotten Ancient]

Wow. Just wow. God forbid someone wants a discussion and cares enough to debate an issue on a point.

If you don't want your comments to be discussed, perhaps keep them to yourself?

I don't want any kind of discussion if that means it has to begin with "wow. just wow."

And debate is fine. I love it. But the semantical dissecting of terms like "game x has legs" ruins discussion. So do comments like "you're above that" when spoken in condescension.