Redd said:I don't get it. Maybe the Japanese(no offense) didn't notice the online portion of MGS4.
Ah, didn't notice that. Thanks for info.Stumpokapow said:
OokieSpookie said:Anyone who actually played MGS4 definitely feel it is the year of the PS3, people who spend their days jerking off over numbers instead of playing games can do what they want.
norinrad21 said:I always expect good games to sell regardless of console. Just because a game didn't sell well last gen, doesn't mean a new installment won't bring about change.
The game was too awesome for them them to keep in their possessionMinsc said:Ok, so then explain all the used copies in a week...
On the less popular consoles it's some what common to see gamers buy the new big game, beat it as quickly as possible and then sell it back so they can minimize the cost. Happened quite a bit with the GC.Minsc said:Ok, so then explain all the used copies in a week...
Edit: Wow this thread picked up a little. I see I won't be getting an answer.
Minsc said:So as of this thread, rough %s of a game's sales to the console's userbase (at least the easiest and biggest ones I could find, any NDS games able to claim 20%+?),
MGS4 - 21.5%
MHP2G - 22.9%
Wii Fit - 35.8%
Wii Sports - 27.4%
Pretty good showing for MGS4, and really makes Wii Fit's sales look amazing, wonder how long until games using the balance board make some more appearances in the charts.
Jaruru said:looks like MGS4 = not a million seller @ JP? :x
Minsc said:So as of this thread, rough %s of a game's sales to the console's userbase (at least the easiest and biggest ones I could find, any NDS games able to claim 20%+?),
Wii Fit - 35.8%
Wii Sports - 27.4%
That's easy: MGS4 is one of the greatest games of all time, but the singleplayer portion is not particularly long, and many Japanese gamers have little or no interest in MGO.Minsc said:Ok, so then explain all the used copies in a week...
lowlylowlycook said:A million seller
on PS3; almost like
waiting for Godot.
Stumpokapow said:Wii Sports should be almost 50% (2.97 million sales on a userbase just over 6 million). Pokemon Diamond/Pearl is at a hair over 25%. NSMB is at 22% or so, Brain Age 2 just behind that, Animal Crossing is ~18% or so. Blue Dragon on the 360 is ~40%. Dead or Alive 4 and Lost Odyssey both around 20%.
charlequin said:Japanese gamers have never been particularly interested in multiplayer shooter games, so I'm not particularly surprised that MGS4 didn't buck the trend on that.
Japan hates HD gaming confirmed. At least MGS4 sold in line with 2 and 3.
Rocksteady33 said:I'm unaware of how used sales works in Japan, so could someone clarify something? Do major retailers (like our Best Buy's) sell used games as well? It boggles my mind that used game sales can be such a huge factor in Japan when I don't really see it as a huge issue in the States. When I go to buy a game I simply never have the option of a used copy because I always go to Best Buy/Target/Wal-Mart/Circuit City, etc. However if major electronic retailers carried used games as well in Japan then I could see it.
Durante said:That's easy: MGS4 is one of the greatest games of all time, but the singleplayer portion is not particularly long, and many Japanese gamers have little or no interest in MGO.
Anyway, I think the dropoff is within expectations for a historically "hardcore" series, especially on a secondary console.
Cheesemeister said:No, they don't. Sofmap, Yodobashi, Bic Camera, Ito Yokado, and so on only sell new games. You have to go to a "recycle shop" along the lines of GameStop to buy used. The amazing thing about such shops, though, is that they're like video game history museums and stock all previous generations.
cvxfreak said:Some Sofmap locations do sell used games. Shinjuku's branch for example does.
duckroll said:Reality bites.
Cheesemeister said:No, they don't. Sofmap, Yodobashi, Bic Camera, Ito Yokado, and so on only sell new games. You have to go to a "recycle shop" along the lines of GameStop to buy used. The amazing thing about such shops, though, is that they're like video game history museums and stock all previous generations.
Cheesemeister said:No, they don't. Sofmap, Yodobashi, Bic Camera, Ito Yokado, and so on only sell new games. You have to go to a "recycle shop" along the lines of GameStop to buy used. The amazing thing about such shops, though, is that they're like video game history museums and stock all previous generations.
Rocksteady33 said:Well then why is it that when a game is front loaded and doesn't seem to do well their second week (which I don't feel the case is for MGS4, it's doing along the lines of previous MGS games) people always jump to the used copies conclusion in the Media Create sales. Yet in NPD sales threads I don't think I've ever seen someone bring up the used copy argument when a game fails to meet expectations.
Rocksteady33 said:Well then why is it that when a game is front loaded and doesn't seem to do well their second week (which I don't feel the case is for MGS4, it's doing along the lines of previous MGS games) people always jump to the used copies conclusion in the Media Create sales.
Stumpokapow said:[ code ]stuff goes here--don't include the spaces in the quote tags [ / code ]
Inside those BBCode tags, you can paste in data with the tab character in it, to line stuff up.
Game Wk 1 Wk 2 LTD r pLTD Error:
MGS3 487k 123k 820k 1.99 801k ~2.3%
MGS2 457k 88k 798k 2.37 635k ~20.4%
GT3 468k 263k 1429k 0.83 3982k ~178.6%
Kingdom Hearts 411k 103k 830k 1.99 673k ~18.9%
Super Robot Wars Impact 436k 75k 633k 2.54 578k ~8.7%
Tales of Destiny 2 498k 64k 739k 2.97 601k ~18.7%
Hot Shots Golf 4 475k 163k 1051k 1.55 1107k ~5.3%
Super Robot Wars MX 403k 54k 521k 2.91 491k ~5.6%
Dragon Ball Z Budokai 3 414k 90k 642k 2.20 614k ~4.5%
MGS4 476k 67k ??? 2.83 589k ???
liuelson said:Sorry for the formatting - don't know how to make things line up.
Stumpokapow said:Also, given that The Tower DS (ie Sim Tower DS) is releasing tomorrow, I assume we can pretty much write off next week's numbers. The Tower is predicted to break all launch records. I heard the first shipment is fifty million billion copies because they expect the game to be so awesome and popular that it re-ignites DS hardware sales and every current DS owner will by multiple copies.
... if it breaks 50,000 lifetime I'll be astounded
Anyone importing? I'm giving it around 4 months, and if there's no localization announcement, I'll grab it then. The Tower SP was an exceptionally low-profile post-DS release GBA loclaization, so if that can make it, anything can.
Jaruru said:I'm waiting for the localization announcement as well. this game is addictive. I don't mind playing it over and over. :lol
is there new resto/entertainment facilities? :O :O :O
Kagari said:No one answered my previous question... do we know how many copies of MGS4 got shipped to Japan?
Ye, the fanbase is one thing i didnt think about, but still i'm suprised that the difference is that big. Maybe most store ordered more PS2 copies and maybe that is one reason why the numbers for the Wii version are low, but i dont know. It might be as you say that the fanbase is on PS2 and that is where they played some of their previous Harukanaru Toki no Naka games.botticus said:As with most games, I assume the fanbase is on the PS2, so there's little reason for the Wii game. That said, looking at the previous games (all PS2) on Garaph (thanks Joshua!), this one had a big opening:
2004-12-22 Harukanaru Toki no Naka de 3 - 22,496
2005-04-01 Harukanaru Toki no Naka de ~Hachiyoushou~ - 9,480
2005-09-22 Harukanaru Toki no Naka 3 - 36,663
2006-03-23 Harukanaru Toki no Uchi de 3: Unmei no Meikyuu - 33,621
It's LTD is already beyond any of those.
Ah, the Tower, a really good game i remember playing back in the days on our old computer, i have some good memories from this game I also played the GBA version alittle bit. This game is really cool in my opinion. Thanks for the new screenshots by the way!Stumpokapow said:What we know so far:
- Touch screen control
- Less sluggish than SP (YES!)
- Many different scenarios, expanding on The Tower SP
- Some building can be creatively shaped like monuments; example is a tower monument to Mario.
- Pre-order Japanese game to get mega 128 page booklet.
New screenshots.
I read somewhere that Wii didn't get any "limited edition" version, which could account for part of it since the so-called limited edition is often the better selling in many games.test_account said:Ye, the fanbase is one thing i didnt think about, but still i'm suprised that the difference is that big. Maybe most store ordered more PS2 copies and maybe that is one reason why the numbers for the Wii version are low, but i dont know. It might be as you say that the fanbase is on PS2 and that is where they played some of their previous Harukanaru Toki no Naka games.
Ah ok, i didnt know that, if that is the case then that might be the reason why the PS2 version sold much better indeed. Thanks for the info!Jokeropia said:I read somewhere that Wii didn't get any "limited edition" version, which could account for part of it since the so-called limited edition is often the better selling in many games.
chris0701 said:What do the gamers in Japan want nowady ?
Laguna said:I guess, more games appealing to Japanese? PS3 2008 lineup isn´t looking so bright, the only notable and known exclusive game for the rest of 2008 so far is Gran Tourismo 5. Sonys lackluster efforts aren´t helping the situation in Japan either. Where is Whight Knight Chronicles releasedate for example? People saw what happened with PS, PS2 and NDS and are expecting a similar development for Wii, while PS3 took the place of this gens Saturn/GC in their mind. Also many people including myself are expecting the returning backwardscompatibility with PSthree.
Laguna said:I guess, more games appealing to Japanese? PS3 2008 lineup isn´t looking so bright, the only notable and known exclusive game for the rest of 2008 so far is Gran Tourismo 5. Sonys lackluster efforts aren´t helping the situation in Japan either. Where is Whight Knight Chronicles releasedate for example? People saw what happened with PS, PS2 and NDS and are expecting a similar development for Wii, while PS3 took the place of this gens Saturn/GC in their mind. Also many people including myself are expecting the returning backwardscompatibility with PSthree.
Laguna said:I know it isn´t confirmed but I wanted to name atleast one game... I´m sorry
Redd said:Yeah I just though Kojimas game would be the exception. I'm also surprised about the used copies one week. Eh doesn't matter to me, I did my part and bought a copy.
Funny I thought they had a hell of a first week.
RJT said:I think Joshua's database has the famitsu top30 number for many years, so we do have a lot of data points. He just needs to add extra fields to classify the game (platform and publisher should already be there, Franchise/Genre/Famitsu would have to be added). Of course, the work required to classify each game would be monster...
Another variable I think is useful is hardware sales on the last 6/12/x months. A game on a platform that is spiking (e.g. PSP) should do better than a game on a platform that is dying (e.g. PS2).
liuelson said:Great list KajunW.
For other independent variables, what about developer (not just publisher), and whether the title is bundled with anything (console or accessory)? Also, as you said, it would be nice to capture information about marketing or even budget, but it would be nearly impossible to gather that kind of data systematically from public sources. Really, the "marketing" variable is an attempt to quantify awareness of the title by potential purchasers (assuming that greater marketing correlates with greater awareness, and greater awareness correlates with higher probability of purchase). One might try to use google search data or even Amazon pre-order data as a proxy for consumer awareness.
Edit: I just read the posts about how X360 games are high on Amazon.jp, but low in sales. Oh well!
liuelson said:For the heck of it:
garaph database of PS2 games with 400k < Week 1 < 500k
Compare against inverse function y = C/t^r
Calculate predicted LTD up to y < 100 or t = 156, whichever comes first.