Support NeoGAF

[Allan Holdsworth]

Ouch at Bomba Wario

Doesn't bode well for a 2D console Kirby/Yoshi/Mario/Metroid in this style. Better for me actually :lol, I want them on DS. Gimme Wario Land 5!

Or is it the second victim of Nintendo's new announcement strategy after Starfi? Personally I don't see announcing games close to release making much of a difference for the average consumer, and Starfi as a series was trending down anyway, but Wario's low sales are unexpected. Maybe it'll have some sort of legs and surpass 100K.

Captain Rainbow at 6800 yen is sent out to die. 1k first day believe.

 

[loosus]

Why so much surprised with Wario's sales? What exactly WOULD BE the appeal of the game? It looks fucking cheap.

 

[Tron 2.0]

Why so much surprised with Wario's sales? What exactly WOULD BE the appeal of the game? It looks fucking cheap.

You shut up.

Hopefully it sells better in Europe and the US.

 

[Bizzyb]

if those Wario sales stop in any way the development of a 2D Metroid, i'll get a seizure...

also, Nintendo's new policy about revealing games so close to launch sucks. it's the opposite of the old one where they unveil a game too early but it is bad for different reasons. games should be revealed 6 or more months before launch and have moderate ads to build the hype until release.

seeing Wario's sales, i expect captain rainbow to open at 2k.

We'll have to let Nintendo know asap. Wouldn't want you getting any seizures

and yes, it's like Nintendo totally forgot what hype was and how that helps SELL things.
They need to stop releasing games after only a few months of announcing them. it's stupid.

 

[[Nintex]]

seeing Wario's sales, i expect captain rainbow to open at 2k.

Nintendo needs to seriously rethink their core strategy.It seems that now that they can't fall back on Mario , Metroid, Smash Bros. that they're pretty much clueless. Maybe they should start hyping some titles instead of announcing them when they're ready but not ready to ship because they need to fill out their release list.

Ever since this gen started they've had problems reaching their core audience with marketing. I can see them launching a Zelda game tommorow with about 100 copies sold the first day. They must've hired the genius who came up with the E3 Saturn launch.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Why so much surprised with Wario's sales? What exactly WOULD BE the appeal of the game? It looks fucking cheap.

That kind of animation quality, background work and animated cutscenes from a team like Production IG does not come cheap, and it certainly doesn't look it. That's as bad as the people claiming the game looked no better than WL4 when the first (shitty) scans appeared.

Ever since this gen started they've had problems reaching their core audience with marketing.

More so in Japan, I'd say. NoA seem to have a better handle on that audience (or the audience is more receptive to "core" games?) but are less successful in pushing the Touch Gen line. NoE seems to be fairly good at hitting both segments of the market.

 

[test_account]

1. Konamis expectations were 1 M

2. MGS 1 did and MGS 2 did nearly 1 million..

Does anyone have a source of Konami's expectations to sell 1 million copies of Metal Gear Solid 4 in Japan? I mean i've seen several of people saying this, but i cant recall seeing any source on it (i've searched as well, but unfortunately i cant find anything :\)

Do we have any sale numbers for MGS 1 in Japan by the way?

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Quick question:

What are we expecting Wario to sell and why?

 

[jj984jj]

Anyone know what did Kaitou Wario/Wario Thief/Master in Disguise do on day 1? I think it was better than this.

Edit: Kaitou Wario did 60k on day 1.

 

[botticus]

Quick question:

What are we expecting Wario to sell and why?

				1st Week	LTD
GCN Wario World			49,851		142,845
NDS Wario: Master of Disguise	87,731		289,872

For comparison.

 

[JaMarco]

maybe Master in Disguise left a bad taste in people's mouths about Wario?

 

[[Nintex]]

				1st Week	LTD
GCN Wario World			49,851		142,845
NDS Wario: Master of Disguise	87,731		289,872

For comparison.

7 days left, 10k a day it could still hit 70.000k in it's first week(BELIEVE!)

 

[lopaz]

Is wario selling full priced? Looks sexy but I wouldn't be willing to spend that much for it

 

[Datschge]

Any reliable numbers for the other Wario Land titles?

 

[Kagari]

Slow times~

 

[donny2112]

Pawapro 15 Wii sales are just a huge disappointment- another full year on the market, a price reduction, and its still going to sell less than last year.

It's worth noting that Power Pro 15 is not the sequel to MLB Power Pros 2 (i.e. the game we got in the U.S.). It doesn't make the sales look any better, but some people may be getting the two confused.

Fatal Frame is gunna bomb to heck

Nah. It's following is probably more hardcore, so they'll buy it whereever it's at. It'll do its 40-70K LTD and be done.

Spoiler

Come on and get > 100K, please!

I'd say around 30k would be a decent number for FF4's first week, which falls between the debuts of the first and second/third games.

If it sells < 40K first week, the fanbase didn't follow the game and that's bad news for the Wii.

The last 2 opened at around 45K or so.

Anything significantly less would be a disappointment IMO.

This.

WarioLand. We hardly knew ye.

We don't know thee, yet. How many numerous Wii games has someone said "bomba" to based on the first day sales only to see it continue to sell and sell and sell and sell? At least wait and see if it sold another 10K or more through the weekend. That would be a good sign for its legs.

As for other 2D platformer games, DK:JB debuted at 81K.

Do we have any sale numbers for MGS 1 in Japan by the way?

PS1 MGS 317K (706K)

Core games typically have stronger debuts and weaker legs as the series progresses.

Any reliable numbers for the other Wario Land titles?

GBOY Wario Land 2 28K (261K)
GBOY Wario Land 3 67K (255K)
GBA Wario Land 4 103K (485K)
GCN Wario World 50K (143K)
NDS Wario: The Seven 88K (290K)

 

[Datschge]

GBOY Wario Land 2 28K (261K)
GBOY Wario Land 3 67K (255K)
GBA Wario Land 4 103K (485K)

Thanks. Didn't know WL4 improved this dramatically over the previous entries. (Does the WL2 number refer to the GB, the GBC or both versions?)

 

[jimbo]

Hardware

PSP 74,024
DS Lite 54,531
Wii 40,803
PS3 11,253
PS2 9,535
Xbox 360 4,208

What's up with the 360? It's hovering quite a bit higher than I expected it, especially with no games coming out.

 

[test_account]

PS1 MGS 317K (706K)

Core games typically have stronger debuts and weaker legs as the series progresses.

Ok, thanks for the info! I guess the 706k is its LTD?

 

[Brofist]

What's up with the 360? It's hovering quite a bit higher than I expected it, especially with no games coming out.

I think some people are starting to notice the nice pile of game the system has accumulated, plus Tales coming soon and the RPG announcements help too.

 

[donny2112]

(Does the WL2 number refer to the GB, the GBC or both versions?)

GameFAQs only lists a GBC release for Japan, so I guess it's the GBC total. Famitsu never gave GBC games a different system abbreviation, so all GBC games are listed as GBOY.

I guess the 706k is its LTD?

Yes.

 

[ccbfan]

While WArio sales is bad but I'm more worried about Pawapro 15.

Didn't we get reports that Konomi was doing everything they could to make the Wii version outsell the PS2 version with more advertising and a lower price? To get demolished again even with all these advantages is concerning.

 

[schuelma]

While WArio sales is bad but I'm more worried about Pawapro 15.

Didn't we get reports that Konomi was doing everything they could to make the Wii version outsell the PS2 version with more advertising and a lower price? To get demolished again even with all these advantages is concerning.

Yup. Wouldn't be shocked if they can the Wii version altogether next year.

 

[boiled goose]

i think the wii version is priced at twice the ps2 version actually...

 

[laserbeam]

i think the wii version is priced at twice the ps2 version actually...

I know its been announced at much more in the US. 19.99 for the PS2 version and 39.99 for the Wii version.

I dont know what the fuck they are thinking

 

[schuelma]

i think the wii version is priced at twice the ps2 version actually...

Nope

Edit- you're thinking of MLB Power Pros and its U.S price.

 

[test_account]

Yes.

Ok, i just had to ask to be sure that it wasnt the first week's number Thanks again for the info!

 

[botticus]

I know its been announced at much more in the US. 19.99 for the PS2 version and 39.99 for the Wii version.

I dont know what the fuck they are thinking

As I alluded to earlier, Power Pros Wii outsold the PS2 version 4:1 in the US, even at a $10 higher price tag.

If it sells < 40K first week, the fanbase didn't follow the game and that's bad news for the Wii.

For better or worse, I don't really expect the entire fanbase to show up, at least not first week. That is to say, I don't count on them being as rabid as the MGS4 core. But there are significantly less of them, so I could be wrong. Just so there's no confusion, these are my expectations, not what I think Nintendo/Tecmo's are, and if they pan out, I don't really consider it a terrific result for anyone.

I will be interested to see if FF4 is less front-loaded on the Wii. The first three games dropped like a rock after release.

 

[Busaiku]

7 days left, 10k a day it could still hit 70.000k in it's first week(BELIEVE!)

2 days actually.
The "first week" number usually accounts for only 2-3 days of sales.

 

[blu]

And all those sold exponentially greater than Wario with a smaller userbase. So why isn't Wario tracking higher? Some Nintendo IPs belong exclusively on handheld, while others deserve a home console counterpart. A big Zelda game belongs on the Wii; a big Mario game belongs on the Wii; hell, even a big Metroid game could squeeze a place on the Wii (although I think it could find a permanent home on the DS and find greater success if implemented correctly). However, titles like Nintendogs, Brain Age, Tingle, and Wario just won't find as much success on a home console, simply because their concepts can be captured sufficiently on a handheld.

great line of thought. how did you miss the castlevania judgement thread?

 

[apujanata]

2 days actually.
The "first week" number usually accounts for only 2-3 days of sales.

Most game (not all, but most) are released on thursday in Japan, and the week is up until Sunday. So, if Fatal Frame 4 (I thought we were talking about Final Fantasy 4) is released on Thursday, then it have 3 remaning days (Friday, Saturday and Sunday).

 

[BishopLamont]

Why so much surprised with Wario's sales? What exactly WOULD BE the appeal of the game? It looks fucking cheap.

Cheap? You have the shittest taste in the world. Lemme guess, you love bald space marines and 3d bewbs?

 

[justchris]

Same as above, now with Xb360, Wii and PS3.

This chart is brilliant, and deserves to be quoted. I find it fascinating that the best fit line for tie ratio for all 3 systems is virtually the same. I would be interested in seeing something similar for the PS2 & GC, to see if they share the same trajectory.

 

[justchris]

If Fatal Frame 4 bombs, then Third Parties cannot be the only ones to blame to not bring more hardcore titles on Wii.
It's definitely the big difference between the DS and the Wii: the former has an installed base of both casual and hardcore gamers. An equilibrated mix.
Wii's balance is most of all directed to the casual audience. And it's not a good thing for Nintendo and neither for Third Parties. And even with these facts, Nintendo is more and more milking this type of audience, let hardcore gamers in a corner, but I'm convinced that it's not a move without bad second effects.

This is a ridiculous perception, and it's mostly Nintendo's fault.

While I agree with Nintendo's new marketing strategy of only showing games a few months before they debut, it does have some bad side effects. I don't think it really affects sales of the game one way or another. Hype affects sales based on the amount of hype you build, not how long you build it. What's worse, the longer a game takes to come out, the quicker the hype dies, to the point there are games that were announced when the PS3/360 launched that at this point I've forgotten about. I'll remember them when the pre-lauch hype begins, but it's unlikely to reach the heights of the first announcement. Realistically, the greastest hype for a game comes when we first find out about it, and the longer it takes for that game to arrive the more steam the hype train loses.

The downside to this is, Nintendo is building two different types of games for two different audiences. While it is a provable fact that Nintendo has released more games for core gamers than they have for casual gamers, there's still this impression that Nintendo focuses more on casual gamers. And the reason it seems this way is because core games take longer to develop than casual games by a fair margin, and are more likely to have problems in development that lead to delays. This means that, with their new marketing tactics, they have found themselves in a position where the only games they're really ready to show are casual games, so everyone gets the impression that that's all they're working on, when the more likely reality is that they've nearly finished these casual games and core games are almost definitely taking the majority of their resources right now.

In the long run, I don't see this affecting their game sales, but in the short run it could affect their hardware sales, as it creates a perception problem for the console.

 

[Gaborn]

So, going by Media Create's numbers (and Joshua's amazing data collection as usual) from this point the PS3 needs to average at least 68, 574.6 units a week until the end of the calendar year to have a LTD that is equal to the Wii after week 53 (used because that's almost literally 365 days, and similarly the PS3's year end is derived from taking the number of weeks so far and subtracting them from 53, then using that number to divide the remaining weeks by the number from (WiiAfter53 weeks-PS3LTD). I'm not holding my breath.

 

[schuelma]

So, going by Media Create's numbers (and Joshua's amazing data collection as usual) from this point the PS3 needs to average at least 68, 574.6 units a week until the end of the calendar year to have a LTD that is equal to the Wii after week 53 (used because that's almost literally 365 days, and similarly the PS3's year end is derived from taking the number of weeks so far and subtracting them from 53, then using that number to divide the remaining weeks by the number from (WiiAfter53 weeks-PS3LTD). I'm not holding my breath.

That war's been over for a while.

The only thing of interest I'm looking at is software sales- Will Wii sell enough 3rd party software to convince publishers to shift towards the Wii, or will publishers keep to handhelds/PS2, or will they keep their big franchises on the PS3. That's the interesting thing to look for IMO.

 

[Sage00]

That war's been over for a while.

The only thing of interest I'm looking at is software sales- Will Wii sell enough 3rd party software to convince publishers to shift towards the Wii, or will publishers keep to handhelds/PS2, or will they keep their big franchises on the PS3. That's the interesting thing to look for IMO.

We need some more case studies before we can draw any of those conclusions. The reason Wii doesn't appear to be selling a lot of third party software could be because the only big third party game has been DQS, or it could be because Nintendo games just overshadow everything.

Either way we need another big third party game to show us. But who is going to take the gamble?

 

[schuelma]

We need some more case studies before we can draw any of those conclusions. The reason Wii doesn't appear to be selling a lot of third party software could be because the only big third party game has been DQS, or it could be because Nintendo games just overshadow everything.

Either way we need another big third party game to show us. But who is going to take the gamble?

I agree. But that's the problem. If no one takes the gamble, might that PS2 core userbase never transition to Wii? The core userbase outside of Nintendo properties has not been at all built up on the Wii. Whether that's 3rd parties fault or Nintendo's, who knows..but that's the reality at the moment, and I don't see much on the horizon that's going to change things. I think Monster Hunter could be that game, but I haven't seen any indication that it is coming out anytime soon.

 

[JaMarco]

This is a ridiculous perception, and it's mostly Nintendo's fault.

While I agree with Nintendo's new marketing strategy of only showing games a few months before they debut, it does have some bad side effects. I don't think it really affects sales of the game one way or another. Hype affects sales based on the amount of hype you build, not how long you build it. What's worse, the longer a game takes to come out, the quicker the hype dies, to the point there are games that were announced when the PS3/360 launched that at this point I've forgotten about. I'll remember them when the pre-lauch hype begins, but it's unlikely to reach the heights of the first announcement. Realistically, the greastest hype for a game comes when we first find out about it, and the longer it takes for that game to arrive the more steam the hype train loses.

The downside to this is, Nintendo is building two different types of games for two different audiences. While it is a provable fact that Nintendo has released more games for core gamers than they have for casual gamers, there's still this impression that Nintendo focuses more on casual gamers. And the reason it seems this way is because core games take longer to develop than casual games by a fair margin, and are more likely to have problems in development that lead to delays. This means that, with their new marketing tactics, they have found themselves in a position where the only games they're really ready to show are casual games, so everyone gets the impression that that's all they're working on, when the more likely reality is that they've nearly finished these casual games and core games are almost definitely taking the majority of their resources right now.

In the long run, I don't see this affecting their game sales, but in the short run it could affect their hardware sales, as it creates a perception problem for the console.

never thought of it that way

 

[Gaborn]

That war's been over for a while.

The only thing of interest I'm looking at is software sales- Will Wii sell enough 3rd party software to convince publishers to shift towards the Wii, or will publishers keep to handhelds/PS2, or will they keep their big franchises on the PS3. That's the interesting thing to look for IMO.

The thing is, I think big franchises will sell ANYWHERE. The real question is where will the mid tier franchises go. THAT to me ultimately determines which console gets the big games because that indicates a more viable platform. Which platform is more likely to have a breakout hit or an unexpectedly positive performance from a title? (and I recognize that war has been over for a while, I just like that particular stat because it's so remarkable)

 

[justchris]

never thought of it that way

There's more to it than that, really. The Wii is really fascinating from a marketing perspective, both for what Nintendo does right and what they do wrong. Sometimes it's hard to classify which is which until long after we've seen the results.

Another part of this perception problem is that: It's easier to sell games to a core gamer than it is to a casual gamer or especially to a non-gamer. Two of the best examples ever: FFXIII & Captain Rainbow.

The basic premise is, Nintendo has to spend more money and time marketing to casual gamers, because it's harder to get their attention. I wouldnt' be surprised if their marketing budget for casual games is 3 times their budget for core games. Whereas casual gamers have to be convinced, core gamers actively search for information on games.

FFXIII has been in production for, what 2 1/2 years now, and we've gotten maybe 3 whole entire trailers out of it, and some of those have had to be pirated out of private showings. And yet every core gamer with an interest in Final Fantasy has seen all of those trailers, and then basically begs Square Enix for more marketing. See how easy that is?

But that's an established franchise, let's see how it works with a brand new franchise, like, say, Captain Rainbow. Here, on neogaf, a board primarily populated by American & European posters, has only show up in Japanese magazines and sites, has very little chance of getting localized, and yet most people on this board with any interest in the Wii already know what it is. Nintendo hasn't directed any marketing at us at all, and yet we all still know about this game, and have made some decisions on what we think about it.

So Nintendo understands that core gamers market to themselves, and all they have to do is make the information available when they're ready. Whereas casual gamers have to be bombarded with marketing to make sure they even notice a game exists. The problem is, this creates the impression that Nintendo only cares about casual gamers, when really they probably care about all gamers equally, they just know some are harder to convince than others.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Considering the active involvement of Nintendo on Fatal Frame 4, I think Nintendo do have some kind of positive expectation on this game. The opening week should have at least 40-50k, or I would consider it a bomba.

Ehhh, they have their minor releases, too, like Eternal Ocean.

What's the SRP difference (if any) between the DQ5 PS2 and DS? I've seen Square-Enix's price gouging stated as reasons for DQ8 and FF12 not out-performing their predecessors.

DQV PS2 was 8190, DQV DS is 5490.

Looks like FF XII released at the same price as FF X, once we adjust for the shift in tax (or at least displaying it as part of the price) that happened a few years back.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

.

 

[justchris]

Oh my, Lotuscharts? :lol

I like that he added the handhelds, but no YoY charts?

 

[Mr. Pointy]

I think Wario is still gonna pass 250k. The fat bastard has legs.

 

[_Alkaline_]

There's more to it than that, really. The Wii is really fascinating from a marketing perspective, both for what Nintendo does right and what they do wrong. Sometimes it's hard to classify which is which until long after we've seen the results.

Another part of this perception problem is that: It's easier to sell games to a core gamer than it is to a casual gamer or especially to a non-gamer. Two of the best examples ever: FFXIII & Captain Rainbow.

The basic premise is, Nintendo has to spend more money and time marketing to casual gamers, because it's harder to get their attention. I wouldnt' be surprised if their marketing budget for casual games is 3 times their budget for core games. Whereas casual gamers have to be convinced, core gamers actively search for information on games.

FFXIII has been in production for, what 2 1/2 years now, and we've gotten maybe 3 whole entire trailers out of it, and some of those have had to be pirated out of private showings. And yet every core gamer with an interest in Final Fantasy has seen all of those trailers, and then basically begs Square Enix for more marketing. See how easy that is?

But that's an established franchise, let's see how it works with a brand new franchise, like, say, Captain Rainbow. Here, on neogaf, a board primarily populated by American & European posters, has only show up in Japanese magazines and sites, has very little chance of getting localized, and yet most people on this board with any interest in the Wii already know what it is. Nintendo hasn't directed any marketing at us at all, and yet we all still know about this game, and have made some decisions on what we think about it.

So Nintendo understands that core gamers market to themselves, and all they have to do is make the information available when they're ready. Whereas casual gamers have to be bombarded with marketing to make sure they even notice a game exists. The problem is, this creates the impression that Nintendo only cares about casual gamers, when really they probably care about all gamers equally, they just know some are harder to convince than others.

This is very true.

Wii Fit required Nintendo's biggest marketing effort to date. The reason you hear about the game so much is because Nintendo spent a massive amount of money into informing the casual audience about the game. Without this advertising, the game wouldn't have done nearly as well, because its intended audience doesn't check gaming websites or keep themselves updated on gaming news.

Compare it to something like Twilight Princess. That game has sold millions but was barely advertised. I don't even remember seeing a commercial for the game. Why? It didn't need it. It's intended audience (us) already knew about the game and were always going to purchase it.

Unfortunately, Nintendo's reliance on getting the word out there for their casual games has created a stigma that they are focussed solely on casual games. Those with at least some knowledge no this is not the case, but those with a predispositioned hate or ignorance towards Nintendo clearly believe it to be.

 

[Neo C.]

So Nintendo understands that core gamers market to themselves, and all they have to do is make the information available when they're ready. Whereas casual gamers have to be bombarded with marketing to make sure they even notice a game exists. The problem is, this creates the impression that Nintendo only cares about casual gamers, when really they probably care about all gamers equally, they just know some are harder to convince than others.

I don't think it's really a problem per se, because most of us 'get it'. If the E3 aftermath is any indication, I believe any reasonable gamer understands the situation just fine, and they know gamers games are on the way. Certainly some guys took the E3 a bit too seriously, it's unfortunate.

 

[justchris]

I don't think it's really a problem per se, because most of us 'get it'. If the E3 aftermath is any indication, I believe any reasonable gamer understands the situation just fine, and they know gamers games are on the way. Certainly some guys took the E3 a bit too seriously, it's unfortunate.

Eh, I don't know, I think the fact that Nintendo had to do so much damage control on their E3 showing is rather telling. They all but came right out and said, "Look, we know if we slap the name Mario or Zelda or Metroid on a game, you guys are going to buy it, and that's why we didn't bother wasting our valuable mainstream media time on you." Although they came pretty damn close.

(Which actually brings to mind an interesting though. I wonder if Wii Sports Resort is a test case to see if they can get the same kind of attention to something just because it has Wii Sports in the name? Maybe testing their new audience...?)

And while I understand the reasoning behind Nintendo's marketing strategies, I still think there are several ways they could do better, and could keep all their customers happy. Of course, I wonder if it even matters, since the same people who are whining now will probably still be first in line to pick up Nintendo's core games when they release.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

dp

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

				1st Week	LTD
GCN Wario World			49,851		142,845
NDS Wario: Master of Disguise	87,731		289,872

For comparison.

Warioworld was one of the worst GC games ever. So boring. If Warioland didn't break 50k in its first week, it's really a scandal. But at this point, it's unlikely.

This is a ridiculous perception, and it's mostly Nintendo's fault.

While I agree with Nintendo's new marketing strategy of only showing games a few months before they debut, it does have some bad side effects. I don't think it really affects sales of the game one way or another. Hype affects sales based on the amount of hype you build, not how long you build it. What's worse, the longer a game takes to come out, the quicker the hype dies, to the point there are games that were announced when the PS3/360 launched that at this point I've forgotten about. I'll remember them when the pre-lauch hype begins, but it's unlikely to reach the heights of the first announcement. Realistically, the greastest hype for a game comes when we first find out about it, and the longer it takes for that game to arrive the more steam the hype train loses.

The downside to this is, Nintendo is building two different types of games for two different audiences. While it is a provable fact that Nintendo has released more games for core gamers than they have for casual gamers, there's still this impression that Nintendo focuses more on casual gamers. And the reason it seems this way is because core games take longer to develop than casual games by a fair margin, and are more likely to have problems in development that lead to delays. This means that, with their new marketing tactics, they have found themselves in a position where the only games they're really ready to show are casual games, so everyone gets the impression that that's all they're working on, when the more likely reality is that they've nearly finished these casual games and core games are almost definitely taking the majority of their resources right now.

In the long run, I don't see this affecting their game sales, but in the short run it could affect their hardware sales, as it creates a perception problem for the console.

Good post. But take Super Paper Mario for example: it was very hyped for a time that we an define as "preatty long" in both Japan and USA. And because of that, it sold very well. I don't think that hype is always a factor that counts only at the announcement and for a small interval of time. Sure, for many cases, this is true. But hype can be build during a reasonable amount of time. Of course when ou exceed a certain limit, then the effect start to disappear, and it could transform into a negative effect. I think that Twilight Princess can be a nice example for what conern Japan.

But IMHO, hype is not always an unveiling effect. In our case, Warioland dind't had enough time to make people conscious that a new Wario game is available on the Wii. The hype effect that tend to disappear quickly during time in in equilibrium with the semi-casual audience that don't know about its existence. How can you find the right equilibrium and the right amount of time to commercialise it? 10k in 1 week says that even fans weren't that aware of the game after all.

Btw: great graphs JJ. This is the most interesting one:

Interesting because even with PSP Slim. Even with all the incredible hardware sales since ca. 8 months, PSP increased its hardware share from ca. 24 % to ca. 30 %. The real impression following Media Create threads was really way different....