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[offshore]

I don't see it being over 400k.

300-350k seems reasonable enough though.

 

[gerg]

So we're going with the 200k figure as true?

 

[ksamedi]

So we're going with the 200k figure as true?

Didn't SE report that?

 

[Nirolak]

Didn't SE report that?

I think it was a 2ch rumor that lined up with the 1.8 million statement Square Enix made. The rumor came out before the statement though I believe.

 

[cvxfreak]

I'm just trying to wrap my mind around this in case it comes true.

This would literally be a 10% increase in the PS3's userbase in a single week, three years into its life.

This strikes me as something truly astounding. Has anything like it ever happened before?

DS in December 2005. Sold over 1 Million across two weeks. I can't remember if it hit 5 or 6 Million at the time, but clearly it was a huge jump.

 

[gerg]

Didn't SE report that?

I thought it was a rumour from 2chan or 4chan.

SE reported first-day sales of over a million unbundled units, and at some point we were wondering how the bundled figures worked into that. I don't think it's actually been confirmed.

 

[Nirolak]

DS in December 2005. Sold over 1 Million across two weeks. I can't remember if it hit 5 or 6 Million at the time, but clearly it was a huge jump.

That is a pretty huge jump, but it was still pretty early in the system's life.

I think I was more surprised by just how late this was happening in the PS3's life, but now that I think about it, the PS3 really hasn't been selling that much for most of the past three years so it's not actually all that implausible.

Thanks for the info though.

 

[Dalthien]

So we're going with the 200k figure as true?

I suppose cvxfreak or someone there in Japan could roughly compare the FF13 bundled units in stores at launch with those of MH3. Get a rough idea if the 200k number makes sense compared with the MH3 launch size. I don't even remember the amount of MH3 bundles at the moment, but if someone knows the number, then cvxfreak could quickly see if the approximate ratio between them in stores seems about right for a number of 200k to be plausible.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

What? Please don't start making up bullshit arguments.

If two systems were in similar places the prior year, and trended in the same direction the following year, then yeah - I think it probably makes it likely that they had a similar performance.

The Wii and PS3 were in vastly different places in the US last year, so comparing their YOY would be absolutely meaningless. You are smart enough to know that. We can have a civil discussion without resorting to make-believe arguments.

I don't think I'm smart enough if I'm having this conversation, you want to say PSP has done as bad as or as good as the Wii because the YOY percentage is the same? Very well. But its not to me, and its not because they weren't in similar places last year, and they aren't in this one either. PSP had its best year ever last year, and a good one this year. Wii had a bad year last year, and an even worse this one. A YOY percentage has nothing to do with that and while I don't talk for GAF, if I ever qualify how good/bad a year has been for a platform, a YOY percentage comparison between them has nothing to do with it.

Not going to discuss this further btw, so I'll throw it in the bin and ignore it for the rest of the discussion.

 

[Dalthien]

Not going to discuss this further btw, so I'll throw it in the bin and ignore it for the rest of the discussion.

Ha ha. Well then, I guess we can't have a civil discussion then. Not sure why you brought it up if you didn't want to discuss it. Oh well...

And no, YOY is not the only reason. It is one of many.

The PSP was #2 system last year, #2 this year.
The Wii was #3 last year, #3 this year.
The PSP has fallen 40% YOY so far this year.
The Wii has fallen 40% so far this year.
The Wii sold more software than the PSP last year.
The Wii sold more software than the PSP this year.
The PSP sold mostly 3rd-party software last year.
The PSP sold mostly 3rd-party software this year.
The Wii sold mostly 1st-party software last year.
The Wii sold mostly 1st-party software this year.
The two systems are within only a few hundred thousand units for the year.

And on and on and on.

Very similar performances from one year to the next.

For me anyone who says that the PSP had a good year this year, but the Wii had a bad one is being disingenuous. Likewise, anyone who thinks the Wii had a solid year, but the PSP had a crummy one is also being disingenuous.

There's not a whole lot to separate their performances from 2008 to 2009.




I think everyone wants to talk about PS3 selling 400k anyway.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

All 4 Wii titles you listed were released the 2nd half of the year. And guess what - the 2nd half of the year has held up quite well year-over-year for the Wii. Big surprise.

Hmm, you're righter than I realized. I'm so used to seeing that stat of it being down 40+% YTD YOY, but past week 30 things have been prety even or favorable to 2009.

DS in December 2005. Sold over 1 Million across two weeks. I can't remember if it hit 5 or 6 Million at the time, but clearly it was a huge jump.

Hard to tell the individual weeks here, but yeah, it pretty much cruised from 3.5 to 5.5 that month.

 

[gerg]

Just an fyi JJS, but the graph you posted shows Wii 2007 against Wii 2008, not Wii 2008 against Wii 2009.

 

[Durante]

Just an fyi JJS, but the graph you posted shows Wii 2007 against Wii 2008, not Wii 2008 against Wii 2009.

I thought so as well initially because of the labeling, but I believe it's actually correct. It's just that the "first week" of each of those years started in the previous year.

 

[gerg]

I thought so as well initially because of the labeling, but I believe it's actually correct. It's just that the "first week" of each of those years started in the previous year.

Ah. I see.

 

[Road]

Ha ha. Well then, I guess we can't have a civil discussion then. Not sure why you brought it up if you didn't want to discuss it. Oh well...

And no, YOY is not the only reason. It is one of many.

The PSP was #2 system last year, #2 this year.
The Wii was #3 last year, #3 this year.
The PSP has fallen 40% YOY so far this year.
The Wii has fallen 40% so far this year.
The Wii sold more software than the PSP last year.
The Wii sold more software than the PSP this year.
The PSP sold mostly 3rd-party software last year.
The PSP sold mostly 3rd-party software this year.
The Wii sold mostly 1st-party software last year.
The Wii sold mostly 1st-party software this year.
The two systems are within only a few hundred thousand units for the year.

And on and on and on.

Very similar performances from one year to the next.

For me anyone who says that the PSP had a good year this year, but the Wii had a bad one is being disingenuous. Likewise, anyone who thinks the Wii had a solid year, but the PSP had a crummy one is also being disingenuous.

There's not a whole lot to separate their performances from 2008 to 2009.




I think everyone wants to talk about PS3 selling 400k anyway.

PSP was never a record breaking market leader outselling its direct competitors more than 3:1 then collapsed to a position where it struggles to keep its lead being outsold even by the irrelevant last place system in some weeks.

You're being disingenuous.

 

[Datschge]

Hmm, you're righter than I realized. I'm so used to seeing that stat of it being down 40+% YTD YOY, but past week 30 things have been prety even or favorable to 2009.

Might as well post a graph showing this as running sum (starting week 29):

Holidays look to make the actual difference.

 

[cvxfreak]

I suppose cvxfreak or someone there in Japan could roughly compare the FF13 bundled units in stores at launch with those of MH3. Get a rough idea if the 200k number makes sense compared with the MH3 launch size. I don't even remember the amount of MH3 bundles at the moment, but if someone knows the number, then cvxfreak could quickly see if the approximate ratio between them in stores seems about right for a number of 200k to be plausible.

There is absolutely zero comparison in terms of availability between the two. The availability of the Lightning PS3 vastly outnumbers the MH3 Wii pack.

Everyone here probably remembers that I was photographed by Famitsu during the MH3/Black Wii launch. But in actuality, I had initially gone into the store to get the bundle. There was a stack of them (maybe around 50 units), but they were all pre-ordered through. So, I settled for the standalone unit, and was photographed for it. Had I gotten the bundle, I probably would not have been photographed.

I keep hearing there were perhaps 20K MH3 Wii bundles. That makes sense, especially seeing Wii HW sales that week. Can the Lightning bundle be 10x that? It's possible. 100K is at least a given by now.

Speaking of bundles, I think SW3 is pretty much gone from stores, and the Graces bundle is dwindling.

 

[Road]

I think FFXIII's momentum, by comparison, isn't anywhere near that of NSMB.

While this is the weakest indicator one can have, I was surprised to see NSMBWii already ahead of FFXIII on Amazon yesterday. With what you said, I guess that might not be so distant from the actual market situation.

Nevertheless, it is really a bad evidence because, on top of Amazon being a drop in the ocean in the Japanese market, both games were apparently out of stock when I checked... Now NSMBWii is in stock costing 6,300 yen (MRSP is 5,800).

 

[BishopLamont]

PSP was never a record breaking market leader outselling its direct competitors more than 3:1 then collapsed to a position where it struggles to keep its lead being outsold even by the irrelevant last place system in some weeks.

You're being disingenuous.

...That happened like once or twice, it doesn't mean anything..

The Wii is not market leader, handhelds are, specifically the DS.

 

[Zoe]

I thought it was a rumour from 2chan or 4chan.

2ch is completely different from 2chan or 4chan, BTW.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

PSP was never a record breaking market leader outselling its direct competitors more than 3:1 then collapsed to a position where it struggles to keep its lead being outsold even by the irrelevant last place system in some weeks.

No, that was DS.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

PSP was never a record breaking market leader outselling its direct competitors more than 3:1 then collapsed to a position where it struggles to keep its lead being outsold even by the irrelevant last place system in some weeks.

You're being disingenuous.

So it has to have a record selling year to be having a good year?

 

[dolemite]

The PSP is selling very well despite the lack of killer software.

 

[obonicus]

So it has to have a record selling year to be having a good year?

Apparently, since the PSP being down from its best-selling year has you and Dalthien focusing only on the 'down' part.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Apparently, since the PSP being down from its best-selling year has you and Dalthien focusing only on the 'down' part.

I'm not focusing. I haven't even really woken up yet. I'm just enjoying the fissure in the giant black monolith. Now that it's there, I can criticize it and laugh at it.

 

[Road]

No, that was DS.
http://garaph.info/linecompare.php/.../sys-0/DS/date-0/2007-03-05/gr-0/hf/sys-1/PSP

Oh, you're right. I fell on the trap of comparing Wii's performance to previous home consoles and excluded portables. I am sorry.

So, the Wii is doing much, much better than last generation's 3rd place (GC), while the PSP is doing worse than the GBA. Thanks for making clear to me why we should focus on the PSP decline.

Who knew it was so easy? Let's discuss how the PSP is having a 40% decline in its 5th year and is still outperforming everyone but the DS.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

 

[schuelma]

FFXIII bundle now sold out everywhere as far as I'm concerned.

If there were 200K bundles, then I'd expect PS3 sales to exceed 400K this week.

I think the PS3 will indeed come out on top over the Wii this week based on my observations. I think FFXIII's momentum, by comparison, isn't anywhere near that of NSMB.

Has any system ever done 400K in a single week? I just can't get my head wrapped around 200K bundles selling out in 4 days.

Tomorrow morning should be interesting.

 

[Elios83]

So could we get Famitsu FFXIII and PS3 hardware numbers tomorrow?
They usually give early updates on Monday when something big happens, if I remember correctly.

 

[gerg]

Has any system ever done 400K in a single week? I just can't get my head wrapped around 200K bundles selling out in 4 days.

Tomorrow morning should be interesting.

Someone has already highlighted the DS selling the best part of two million (if not more) in a month in 2005, but that was the DS.

 

[Road]

Has any system ever done 400K in a single week? I just can't get my head wrapped around 200K bundles selling out in 4 days.

Tomorrow morning should be interesting.

Didn't the DS do 600k in one week? (Edit: checking actual numbers, it was 597,628 according to MC.)

400k is a bit too much, especially when you take into account that's pretty much 1/3rd of what FFXIII will sell. That'd be more hardware selling power than any Sony fanboy could ever imagine.

 

[schuelma]

So could we get Famitsu FFXIII and PS3 hardware numbers tomorrow?
They usually give early updates on Monday when something big happens, if I remember correctly.

If everything goes according to plan, yes- it will be the highest selling PS3 game in its first week and that is something Famitsu usually treats as its own article. NSMB Wii got the Monday morning treatment for simply having the biggest first Wii week.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Someone has already highlighted the DS selling the best part of two million (if not more) in a month in 2005, but that was the DS.

And this is Final Fantasy - which is kinda like Dragon Quest. I think that there was an assumption that most of the audience for FFXIII in Japan picked up the system over the course of the last 3 years. I think it's coming out that this isn't the case, and a (possibly) a few hundred thousand Japanese are picking up the system just for that game. The question is, what size of a chunk of those systems get sold back to the used games stores over the course of the next month....? We won't know.

 

[MassiveAttack]

I'm just trying to wrap my mind around this in case it comes true.

This would literally be a 10% increase in the PS3's userbase in a single week, three years into its life.

This strikes me as something truly astounding. Has anything like it ever happened before?

Unprecedented for a console, yes, but then there hasn't been anything like FFXIII on PS3 in Japan since launch. Several GAF members had predicted this would happen well over a year ago - i.e. a PS3 Slim shipping in Fall 2009 with a FFXIII bundle that would become a massive sales catalyst. Not only did this come true but it's exactly what Sony needed to turn the tables. If they really did do 400K for the week, it's an astounding achievement but not completely unforeseen, at least not on GAF. :lol

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Has any system ever done 400K in a single week? I just can't get my head wrapped around 200K bundles selling out in 4 days.

Tomorrow morning should be interesting.

PSP biggest is 264k (PSP-2000 proper launch), its only week above 200k ever too.
Wii biggest is 372k, its launch week. Second best, 285k, week 4.
360, well, we get the idea.
PS2 biggest, 631k, launch week too. Never above 300k again.

So no, lets see if it breaks 200k for the first time ever...and its second time ever above 100k too.

 

[charlequin]

Also any reason that 13 hour number is still being thrown around for the length of game?

Y'see.

Has anyone stopped to notice that 2009 is about to finish with the PSP suffering an even greater year-over-year decline than the Wii for the entire year?

We actually had a conversation almost exactly like this around... two months ago maybe? where someone was like "hey, did you notice the PSP is sucking it up right now?" and a whole bunch of us were like "holy shit, you're right." :lol

I don't think it really went much farther than that because unlike with the Wii I don't think people really had much to disagree with about why the PSP was sucking it up now, but yeah, the PSP is definitely sucking it up.

(Personally, I harsh a lot on the Wii this year because I was such a huge advocate of it at launch and have spent so much time describing the strategies that I believed could have made it much more successful than it is -- plus I made all kinds of dire warnings years ago that I feel the need to establish I was correct about now. :lol With the PSP I really never expected it to be successful as anything other than "the Monhan box.")

Not sure if sarcasm. Help.

I live in New England. Always assume sarcasm.

Of course it is Sony's fault, you're just thinking of it wrong.The "fault" isn't that they haven't put their games on the PSP, the "fault" is that their first party franchises are weak and comparatively unappealing to the consumer.

On the Big Fault-O-Meter, this comes in somewhere well below the fault I ascribe to both Nintendo (for failing to attract third-party support for Wii) and third-parties (for failing to develop for Wii.) Broadly speaking, expecting first-party software to provide the primary motive force for your system is simply a poor strategy unless you have the level of core competency at mass-market software development that Nintendo do -- and literally no one but Nintendo has that level of competency, which would suggest that no one but Nintendo should release a system, by this standard.

Sony made a variety of unforced errors with the PSP, but before the Go fiasco they mostly fall into two categories: insufficient aggressiveness after launch (a problem that can ultimately be traced back to the PS3-launch clusterfuck and the ripple effects it had on the rest of Sony gaming) and an insufficiently unique vision for the system. I really don't think the relative quality of PSP's first-party software (shitty GT excepted) is really a particularly significant problem in comparison.

Honestly, I think the issue is that Sony has no idea what their audience wants.

Well, this is the underlying conceptual problem with the PSP. It was pitched as "it's like console gaming -- but portable!" which is a deeply problematic concept because no one actually wants that. The market who is into high-tech AV and fancy graphics were able to briefly pretend to like the PSP while it was up against an aging PS2 and therefore looked "fancy," but the second HD systems were on the market that particular sheen came off the pear and the PSP found itself faced with a quandary similar to the Wii -- it was trying to attract "home console games" but was manifestly unsuitable to the biggest 18-35 year old meathead genres like sandbox games and shooters.

The fact that PSP became successful in Japan and never did anywhere else is directly traceable to the fact that an unintended market arose that it was suited for: local multi amongst teens. No console could remotely match that (one screen, have to go to someone's house to do it), online gaming isn't popular in Japan so it couldn't serve as an imperfect substitute, so the PSP could become popular by being the only system that could deliver this specific niche.

Funny thing is, I've been asking if that was possible for a couple of weeks ago and people said that it was impossible. Would be a good laugh if it did turn out to be true :lol

Well, again, people were operating under the assumption that there were 40k bundles at that point. You have to take the predictions a lot of us made under that assumption and add like 160k to them. :lol

The PSP is selling very well despite the lack of killer software.

"The PSP is selling poorly because of the lack of killer software." </pureauthor>

 

[schuelma]

Unprecedented for a console, yes, but then there hasn't been anything like FFXIII on PS3 in Japan since launch. Several GAF members had predicted this would happen well over a year ago - i.e. a PS3 Slim shipping in Fall 2009 with a FFXIII bundle that would be massive sales catalyst. Not only did this come true but it's exactly what Sony needed to turn the tables. If they really did do 400K for the week, it's an astounding achievement but not completely unforeseen, at least not on GAF. :lol

As far as I remember, the discussion was whether PS3 could reach 200K when FF13 launched (I thought it was possible). I never remember anyone claiming it would reach 400K or something that insane.

I'm still skeptical it will get that high, but if it does, I will be eating some delicious crow as my 2009 YTD Wii/PS3 prediction comes crashing down to Earth.

 

[gerg]

And this is Final Fantasy - which is kinda like Dragon Quest.

I thought it was highlighted, earlier in this thread in fact, how much the two series have divulged.

I think that there was an assumption that most of the audience for FFXIII in Japan picked up the system over the course of the last 3 years. I think it's coming out that this isn't the case, and a (possibly) a few hundred thousand Japanese are picking up the system just for that game.

Even if 200,000 bundled units of the game were sold, and even in FF XIII only sold 1.2 million units, over 80% of the people would not have bought a PS3 to play the game. I think that figure constitutes "most". It's simply a matter of how large "most" really is.

I'm still skeptical it will get that high, but if it does, I will be eating some delicious crow as my 2009 YTD Wii/PS3 prediction comes crashing down to Earth.

I'm not sure I really understand why this would be the case in regards to the PS3's sales this week.

"You made a reasonable assumption when operating under the limited information we had at the time! Boy do you look stupid now!"

 

[cvxfreak]

Pic proving that Bic Camera sold out of the Lightning PS3, thus rendering me unable to find the bundle at a non-used retailer:

And I thought this was pretty amusing:

...and this, which I saw at a convenience store. RE fans will be amused :

 

[charlequin]

And this is Final Fantasy - which is kinda like Dragon Quest. I think that there was an assumption that most of the audience for FFXIII in Japan picked up the system over the course of the last 3 years. I think it's coming out that this isn't the case

I don't really see that as particularly evident. Bundle sales of a limited-edition special design console simply don't map to new system purchasers the same way -- they're far more likely to go to dedicated fans buying an additional system, which is why they historically far outstrip "normal" demand for a given year.

I'm kind of doubtful that we're seeing an abnormally large surge of people who have waited all this time to buy a PS3 so they could play FFXIII on it (the "regular" surge of people, based on previous games, is still pretty big, of course) -- I think we're seeing basically separate holiday + slim + FFXIII + bundle bumps all stacked on top of each other.

 

[Jocchan]

OH MY GOD someone decapitated Leon!

 

[schuelma]

"You made a reasonable assumption when operating under the limited information we had at the time! Boy do you look stupid now!"

I try and make it a habit of admitting when I get predictions really wrong. I think its important in a land of anonymous message boards to try and be accountable.

 

[i_am_ben]

I try and make it a habit of admitting when I get predictions really wrong. I think its important in a land of anonymous message boards to try and be accountable.

You should do what woodsy does in OT and just run from the thread when you're proved wrong.

 

[gerg]

I try and make it a habit of admitting when I get predictions really wrong. I think its important in a land of anonymous message boards to try and be accountable.

Fair enough. But that doesn't mean laughing vindictively when people make mistakes that were reasonable to make.

Now, when someone says something completely outlandish? Then we laugh.

 

[schuelma]

PSP biggest is 264k (PSP-2000 proper launch), its only week above 200k ever too.
Wii biggest is 372k, its launch week. Second best, 285k, week 4.
360, well, we get the idea.
PS2 biggest, 631k, launch week too. Never above 300k again.

So no, lets see if it breaks 200k for the first time ever...and its second time ever above 100k too.

Thanks for those numbers. Yeah..I'm still having a hard time seeing anything over 325K or so, which would still represent the biggest non-launch week of any system not named the DS if I'm reading everything correctly. I'm going to say the 200K bundle number is a bit inflated. Guess we'll find out!

 

[faridmon]

how can you take a pic of someone cvx? do you sneak behind them and snap a photo of them? why don't anyone find it strange and stop you when you walk Solid Snake-like and then take pic?

 

[cvxfreak]

how can you take a pic of someone cvx? do you sneak behind them and snap a photo of them? why don't anyone find it strange and stop you when you walk Solid Snake-like and then take pic?

iPhone.

 

[TTP]

iPhone.

with shutter sound effect turned off I guess (if there is any. I dont have an iPhone)

 

[cvxfreak]

with shutter sound effect turned off I guess (if there is any. I dont have an iPhone)

I've never heard it sound when a set of headphones are plugged in.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

with shutter sound effect turned off I guess

Stealthier than that; he downloaded the iNvisibility app.