Media Create Sales: October 4-10

wrowa

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What's the buzz around Kirby? Is it going to sell similar to the DS ones or do people expect it to sell much worse?
 

duckroll

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wrowa said:
What's the buzz around Kirby? Is it going to sell similar to the DS ones or do people expect it to sell much worse?
Expect a slower than normal start and a large shipment relative to the first week of sales. How well the game eventually does will depend on word of mouth and continued advertising. Also expect Lord of Arcana to do much better than expected. It doesn't look like it's going to bomb at all. S-E probably undershipped a little bit (on purpose?).
 

Orgen

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[WII] Super Mario Collection: Special Pack - 342k
[PS3] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Storm 2 - 77k
[PS3] Vanquish - 91k
[360] Vanquish - 38k
 

Busaiku

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Apr 5, 2006
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Chris1964 said:
WII

11/11/10
Wii Super Mario 25th Anniversary Edition (unknown if limited, possibly is)
Red Wii, 1 Red Wiimote Plus and Super Mario Bros.
¥20.000
I still don't understand why NCL doesn't bundle it with Wii Sports/Wii Sports Resort.
 

Aru

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Predictions:

[WII] Super Mario Collection: Special Pack - 270k
[PS3] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Storm 2 - 53k
[360] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Storm 2 - 17k
[PS3] Vanquish - 75k
[360] Vanquish - 25k
 

Chris1964

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Dec 17, 2008
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Aru said:
First week ? Maybe. I'd say a little more, though.
And between 100 and 120k LTD for the final numbers.
That's very low.
Word of mouth for Birth by Sleep was great and previous Final Mix did far better numbers.

[PS2] Kingdom Hearts (Square) - 411.492 / 838.323
[PS2] Kingdom Hearts: Final Mix (Square) - 163.668 / 358.130

[PS2] Kingdom Hearts II (Square Enix) - 737.652 / 1.129.196
[PS2] Kingdom Hearts II: Final Mix+ (Square Enix) - 182.162 / 337.091

[PSP] Kingdom Hearts: Birth by Sleep (Square Enix) - 456.453 / 728.286
 

duckroll

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2002-03-28 - Kingdom Hearts
2002-12-26 - Kingdom Hearts Final Mix
2004-11-11 - Kingdom Hearst Chain of Memories
2005-12-22 - Kingdom Hearts II
2007-03-29 - Kingdom Hearts II Final Mix + (w/Re:Chain of Memories)
2009-05-30 - Kingdom Hearts 358/2 Days
2009-06-03 - Kingdom Hearts Coded Episode 1
2009-07-08 - Kingdom Hearts Coded Episode 2
2009-08-05 - Kingdom Hearts Coded Episode 3
2009-09-17 - Kingdom Hearts Coded Episode 4
2009-10-15 - Kingdom Hearts Coded Episode 5
2009-11-26 - Kingdom Hearts Coded Episode 6
2009-12-26 - Kingdom Hearts Coded Episode 7
2010-01-09 - Kingdom Hearts Birth by Sleep
2010-01-28 - Kingdom Hearts Coded Episode 8
2010-10-07 - Kingdom Hearts Re:Coded
2011-01-xx - Kingdom Hearts Birth by Sleep Final Mix

That's the list of every single new release of Kingdom Hearts content in Japan. From 2002 to 2009, it was mainly one title a year, with two releases in the first year, and none in 2006 and 2008. Starting from 2009 though, they started a huge push with 3 original titles (and a remake of one of those titles) within 2 years.

In fact, if you count from the time 358 was released, then within 2 years of that, it would be 3 original titles, a remake of one of those titles, and an expanded re-release of another one of those titles. That's a huge sudden saturation for the series which had until then not seen so many titles released in such a short time.

This could very well result in a continued decline in KH sales in the years to come if they keep it up.
 

Pureauthor

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Well Final Fantasy went through its crazy milking phase, now it looks like KH's turn is coming up.

The primary difference being that all the KH stories are connected somehow so each individual entry that's not a 'main' one has increasingly piecemeal and nonsensical plots. YAY
 

duckroll

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By the way, I did some math on Coded, and one of the reasons Re:Coded might be selling poorly is because of the cost. Re:Coded is being sold for 5,490yen in Japan. Coded charged 315yen for the first episode, and 525yen for each subsequent episode. This means that those KH fans who played Coded on their phones would have paid 3,990yen for the entire game, not including data charges (which can increase the price significantly depending on your plan).

Would someone who paid 3,990yen for the game over the course of 8 months (which concluded in Jan 2010) really want to shell out another 5,490yen just 9 months later for a remake on the DS?
 

Chris1964

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Dec 17, 2008
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duckroll said:
Expect a slower than normal start and a large shipment relative to the first week of sales. How well the game eventually does will depend on word of mouth and continued advertising. Also expect Lord of Arcana to do much better than expected. It doesn't look like it's going to bomb at all. S-E probably undershipped a little bit (on purpose?).
I don't know how close to reality YSO is at this but I read a comment at predictions thread's OP saying that Kirby was a little scarce and additional shipment was expected to stores yesterday.
 

duckroll

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Chris1964 said:
I don't know how close to reality YSO is at this but I read a comment at predictions thread's OP saying that Kirby was a little scarce and additional shipment was expected to stores yesterday.
That's interesting. I read some retailer comments on release day, where they felt that Kirby wasn't really moving very much, especially compared to Arcana which seemed to be selling faster than expected. Maybe things changed over the weekend?
 

Chris1964

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There are the estimates for the initial shipments:

[WII] Super Mario Collection: Special Pack (Nintendo) - 300.000 (sinobi)

[PS3] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Storm 2 (Bandai Namco) - 100.000 (azalyn)
[360] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Storm 2 (Bandai Namco) - unknown

[PS3] Vanquish (Sega) - 100.000 (azalyn)
[360] Vanquish (Sega) - 30.000 (azalyn)

*[PSP] Lord of Arcana (Square Enix) - 150.000 (azalyn)
 

Cygnus X-1

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Chris1964 said:
There are the estimates for the initial shipments:

[WII] Super Mario Collection: Special Pack (Nintendo) - 300.000 (sinobi)

[PS3] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Storm 2 (Bandai Namco) - 100.000 (azalyn)
[360] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Storm 2 (Bandai Namco) - unknown

[PS3] Vanquish (Sega) - 100.000 (azalyn)
[360] Vanquish (Sega) - 30.000 (azalyn)

*[PSP] Lord of Arcana (Square Enix) - 150.000 (azalyn)
Low numbers for Super Mario Collection. Do we have Kirby's shipment?
 

Chris1964

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Cygnus X-1 said:
Low numbers for Super Mario Collection. Do we have Kirby's shipment?
We hardly get estimates for Nintendo shipments. Azalyn never gives them and this number came from sinobi.
 

BishopLamont

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Apr 22, 2007
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Is DKC coming out this year in Japan? I'm really anxious to see how well it does, the original game was a million seller and its been so long, wonder how well it'll do.
 

Chris1964

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Dec 17, 2008
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Azalyn first week estimates

[PSP] Lord of Arcana (Square Enix) > 100.000
[WII] Kirby's Epic Yarn (Nintendo) ~ 100.000
 
Dec 18, 2004
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Chris1964 said:
Azalyn first week estimates

[PSP] Lord of Arcana (Square Enix) > 100.000
[WII] Kirby's Epic Yarn (Nintendo) ~ 100.000

Not really important, but the estimates are backwards,.

___

Predictions:

[WII] Super Mario Collection: Special Pack - 300,032
[PS3] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Storm 2 - 84,343
[PS3] Vanquish - 57,034
[360] Vanquish - 18,432k
 

Road

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Chris1964 said:
Famitsu September top 20 + DS top 10 + PS2 top 10 (30/08/10-26/09/10)

13. [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 3: World Challenge!! Spark / Bomber (Level 5) - 34.452 / 836.341
1.1 million copies shipped according to Level 5 on today's Vision event.
 

Chris1964

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Dec 17, 2008
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Road said:
1.1 million copies shipped according to Level 5 on today's Vision event.
Here we go again. Same thing happened with Inazuma Eleven 2. Level 5 and retailers must expect strong holiday sales (again).
 

Spiegel

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Chris1964 said:
Here we go again. Same thing happened with Inazuma Eleven 2. Level 5 and retailers must expect strong holiday sales (again).
Strong holiday sales when the new title is being released in December?

That's not a good plan.
 
Apr 17, 2005
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Predictions
[WII] Super Mario Collection: Special Pack - 330k
[PS3] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Storm 2 - 90k
[PS3] Vanquish - 70k
[360] Vanquish - 20k
 

Chris1964

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Dec 17, 2008
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Level 5
[NDS] Inazuma Eleven + Inazuma Eleven 2: Threat of the Invaders - Fire / Blizzard (Level 5) - 1.600.000
Famitsu
[NDS] Inazuma Eleven 2: Threat of the Invaders - Fire / Blizzard (Level 5) - 1.129.681
[NDS] Inazuma Eleven (Level 5) - 396.284

Level 5
[NDS] Inazuma Eleven 3: World Challenge!! Spark / Bomber (Level 5) - 1.100.000
Famitsu
[NDS] Inazuma Eleven 3: World Challenge!! Spark / Bomber (Level 5) - 840.348

Also the trading card adaptation of the game has topped 100 million cards.
 

Road

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And Prof. Layton - 9.5 million worldwide (was 9.18 million by Feb.).

Apparently these shipments are at least 1 month old, which means L5 started thinking of the holidays a long time ago. haha

ETA: I need someone with a better Japanese than mine to help out: http://www.nikkei.com/tech/news/article/g=96958A9C889DE3E4E4EAE2E7E3E2E0E2E3E2E0E2E3E28698E3E2E2E2;da=96958A88889DE2E0E2E5EAE5E5E2E3E7E3E0E0E2E2EBE2E2E2E2E2E2

Does that mean Sony will sell PS3+3DTV kits together or that they'll just start some marketing fluff for the two together this holiday season in Japan?
 

Ratba

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Red Dead seemed to be getting a pretty big push. They had quite a few big billboards in the Hankyuu station in Umeda, I was surprised.
 

duckroll

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Predictions:

[WII] Super Mario Collection: Special Pack - 375k
[PS3] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Storm 2 - 95k
[PS3] Vanquish - 60k
[360] Vanquish - 30k
 

cw_sasuke

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Kittonwy said:
Console hardware sales is getting so weak, and we're getting close to the holiday season.
Japan is already savin money for the 3DS.
 

duckroll

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So, what titles are worth predicting for next week? God Eater Burst (both Append and Regular) should be a lock, along with Winning Eleven 2011 PS3 and Golden Sun DS. Should we also include Solatorobo and Chris1964's favorite upcoming game Zack and Ombra? What about stuff like Dream Club Portable and Winning Eleven 2011 360?
 

test_account

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Does anyone know what happend to Garaph.info? It hasnt been updated for month, at least the hardware numbers.
 

Cygnus X-1

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Spiegel said:
Pokemon - 168,541 / 4,161,397
Kirby - 92,280
Lord of Arcana - 69,932

Top 20
http://www.4gamer.net/games/117/G011794/20101020050/

PSP 37,127
PS3 22,201
DSi LL 21,084
DSi 20,749
Wii 12,810
DS Lite 5,268
Xbox 360 2,342
PS2 1,715
PSP go 1,590
Very low. Japan really has no taste. And absolute no effect on Wii's sales. It seems that either DS owners did not buy a Wii for Kirby or they already have a Wii.

It's better saying that the entire world hasn't, since this game is going to sell less than what it deserves everywhere