Support NeoGAF

[Chris1964]

Famitsu first day says

[WII] The Last Story (Nintendo) {2011.01.27} - 75.490 / 59,8%
[360] Dream Club Zero (D3 Publisher) {2011.01.27} - 14.382 / 43,5%
[360] Gal Gun (Alchemist) {2011.01.27} - 7.056 / 59,7%

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

And how do you know this?

The game supposedly got an initial shipment of 120k. Early reports indicated a quick sellout. The game sold almost 120k in its first week.

Seems pretty cut and dry to me.

 

[mugurumakensei]

Famitsu first day says

[WII] The Last Story (Nintendo) {2011.01.27} - 75.490 / 59,8%
[360] Dream Club Zero (D3 Publisher) {2011.01.27} - 14.382 / 43,5%
[360] Gal Gun (Alchemist) {2011.01.27} - 7.056 / 59,7%

So ~126k units were shipped for The Last Story.

That means roughly 90% sell-through

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Famitsu first day says

[WII] The Last Story (Nintendo) {2011.01.27} - 75.490 / 59,8%

So, Famitsu says TLS had a 125k first shipment then. Shame Nintendo/retailers didn't arrange for a larger first shipment, as it would have been interesting to see how far it could go. Hopefully a prompt second shipment and good word of mouth will keep it going, as the impressions I've seen suggest it deserves to sell well.

 

[ivysaur12]

Famitsu first day says

[WII] The Last Story (Nintendo) {2011.01.27} - 75.490 / 59,8%
[360] Dream Club Zero (D3 Publisher) {2011.01.27} - 14.382 / 43,5%
[360] Gal Gun (Alchemist) {2011.01.27} - 7.056 / 59,7%

So that would put it around 126k? Sales-age, is 90% sell-out good?

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

Edit:

 

[Cosmonaut X]

So that would put it around 126k? Sales-age, is 90% sell-out good?

Why wouldn't it be?

 

[ivysaur12]

Why wouldn't it be?

Because it could indicate undershiping and losing some potential business to used copies before there is a second shipment. I have no idea what the ideal target range that publisher like to go for during the first week, but I would think 90% would be a bit too high.

 

[heringer]

"Good" would be a high sell through of a larger shippment.

The numbers are definitely disappointing, but at least there will be another shippment.

I just hope this doesn't factor too much in their localization plans (if there are any at all).

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Because it could indicate undershiping and losing some potential business to used copies before there is a second shipment. I have no idea what the ideal target range that publisher like to go for during the first week, but I would think 90% would be a bit too high.

Fair point, although the mention upthread of a speedy second shipment - if correct - would probably take care of that concern.

 

[Rolf NB]

supposedly Early reports indicated

Seems pretty cut and dry to me.

Smh.

 

[king zell]

so tales well end up being the best selling RPG game for the Wii

 

[frankie_baby]

so tales well end up being the best selling RPG game for the Wii

If last story has a half decent week next week I think it should pass it when all is said and done

 

[Road]

so tales well end up being the best selling RPG game for the Wii

If you exclude Nintendo and Square Enix games, yes.

 

[DXB-KNIGHT]

so tales well end up being the best selling RPG game for the Wii

Until DQX hits and its about time...DO YOU HERE ME SQEX

 

[Stumpokapow]

So that would put it around 126k? Sales-age, is 90% sell-out good?

90% is essentially a total sellout. Because of the way inventory is distributed (relatively few units per store spread across relatively many stores), once you get to 90% it's likely that most stores are totally sold out.

It seems like Nintendo did a second shipment relatively quickly, so that helps blunt any "undershipping" effect.

Undershipping is tough as a term because we're never privy to conversations between retailers and platform holders. The final quantity shipped is an agreement between the two. Maybe it's the case that Nintendo was aiming for a 120k first shipment, maybe it's the case that they were aiming for 200k and retailer interest was lower.

I don't think 120k was a bad guess though. Considering Xenoblade's eventual LTD, the general performance of RPGs across the generation, the performance of Nintendo's mid-low tier titles, and general Wii performance, I kinda feel like 120k is a pretty safe middle between having rotten stock everywhere and being totally and utterly supply constrained. I'm sure knowing what they know now they'd probably have a slightly larger first shipment.

 

[Chris1964]

Next week's releases {2011.02.10}

[NDS] Dengeki School RPG: Cross of Venus Special (ASCII Media Works)

[PSP] Tales of the World: Radiant Mythology 3 (Bandai Namco)
[PSP] Gakuen Heaven: Okawari! (Prototype)
[PSP] Uta no Prince-Sama: Sweet Serenade (Broccoli)
[PSP] Mahjong Haoh Portable: Dankyuu Battle Special [Mycom Best] (NCS)

[WII] Samurai Warriors 3: Xtreme Legends (Koei Tecmo)

[PS3] Samurai Warriors 3 Z (Koei Tecmo)
[PS3] LittleBigPlanet 2 (SCE)
[PS3] Red Dead Redemption: Undead Nightmare (Take-Two Interactive)

[360] Red Dead Redemption: Undead Nightmare (Take-Two Interactive)
[360] Entaku no Seito: Students of Round (Chunsoft)


3 more weeks until 3DS appears in these lists.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

Next week's releases {2011.02.10}

Don't forgot the Monster hunter PSP bundle!

Undershipping is tough as a term because we're never privy to conversations between retailers and platform holders. The final quantity shipped is an agreement between the two. Maybe it's the case that Nintendo was aiming for a 120k first shipment, maybe it's the case that they were aiming for 200k and retailer interest was lower.

Last thread I translated an interesting piece about this, but undershipping in Japan(thus chance loss) has a much higher occurrence due to the fact retailers pay at shipping point and no returns are accepted. I like the term "Lost Sales/ opportunity/ chance loss) better then undershipping

 

[Effect]

Perhaps Nintendo held back the shipped on purpose. Make it hard to get at first. That might create more buzz around it and make people wonder if it's really that good if that it sold out. Most won't look that threads like this or sales information to find out how many were initially shipped. So they'll look for it more the next time they are in the store as their interest has been peaked. Then again maybe not.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Perhaps Nintendo held back the shipped on purpose. Make it hard to get at first. That might create more buzz around it and make people wonder if it's really that good if that it sold out. Most won't look that threads like this or sales information to find out how many were initially shipped. So they'll look for it more the next time they are in the store as their interest has been peaked. Then again maybe not.

The way used games rapidly propagate in Japan and cause massive and quick price erosion, it's highly unlikely anyone would be crazy enough to intentionally make something scarce to create hype/demand.

 

[Chris1964]

Don't forgot the Monster hunter PSP bundle!

19.800 yen

 

[Kafel]

More 360 games in this top 20 than DS, Wii or PS3. Now that's not common.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Quite disappointed for last story, but not surprised. In the end, Wii's audience in one of the least sensible to core games ever.

is this the year when ps3 overtake wii?

Who knows? Schedule for Wii seems awful right now, but Iwata stated that they have lot of games under way and that they will announce them...some months before shipment, like Pandora's Tower of Rythm Heaven Wii.

 

[Zoe]

Don't forgot the Monster hunter PSP bundle!

Is that the source of the shortages?

 

[Hcoregamer00]

I am happy for Valkyria Chronicle 3's first week sales, but I want to see how the sales trend before making any assumptions about success.

I do hope it means that the franchise will migrate to the PSP2 along with Phantasy Star Portable.

 

[duckroll]

I am happy for Valkyria Chronicle 3's first week sales, but I want to see how the sales trend before making any assumptions about success.

I do hope it means that the franchise will migrate to the PSP2 along with Phantasy Star Portable.

I'm not sure what the point of putting VC exclusively on the PSP2 would be though. With VC3, they removed multiplayer entirely and it still sold well. If production values on the PSP2 would be similar to the PS3, why not just put it back on the PS3 since that's what a large part of the fanbase really wants? There's no more excuse about how development costs and time will be much lower and shorter on the portable.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

I'm not sure what the point of putting VC exclusively on the PSP2 would be though. With VC3, they removed multiplayer entirely and it still sold well. If production values on the PSP2 would be similar to the PS3, why not just put it back on the PS3 since that's what a large part of the fanbase really wants? There's no more excuse about how development costs and time will be much lower and shorter on the portable.

Why not both?

Spread dev costs between both systems and emphasize different aspects to appeal to the markets. If Sega could somehow make it for the 3DS they should also do it just to expose the franchise to many markets.

 

[Jokeropia]

Smh.

It's funny that you post this after it was shown that he was right.

Quite disappointed for last story, but not surprised. In the end, Wii's audience in one of the least sensible to core games ever.

115k is not a bad number, especially considering the ~126k shipment.

 

[ivysaur12]

90% is essentially a total sellout. Because of the way inventory is distributed (relatively few units per store spread across relatively many stores), once you get to 90% it's likely that most stores are totally sold out.

It seems like Nintendo did a second shipment relatively quickly, so that helps blunt any "undershipping" effect.

Undershipping is tough as a term because we're never privy to conversations between retailers and platform holders. The final quantity shipped is an agreement between the two. Maybe it's the case that Nintendo was aiming for a 120k first shipment, maybe it's the case that they were aiming for 200k and retailer interest was lower.

I don't think 120k was a bad guess though. Considering Xenoblade's eventual LTD, the general performance of RPGs across the generation, the performance of Nintendo's mid-low tier titles, and general Wii performance, I kinda feel like 120k is a pretty safe middle between having rotten stock everywhere and being totally and utterly supply constrained. I'm sure knowing what they know now they'd probably have a slightly larger first shipment.

That's probably true. It'll easily outsell Xenoblade, but I'd really like it to outsell ToS2, as well. It's already tracking under ToS2's and Graces's first week.

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

I think this was realistically the best that could have been expected for The Last Story to do in its first week. If it has legs like Xenoblade, it should sell over 200,000, which would be pretty good sales for a console RPG this generation.

Valkyria Chronicles 3 is showing positive trends, although it will probably have lesser legs than the first 2 games.

DKCR is a monster.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

115k is not a bad number, especially considering the ~126k shipment.

Well, a 90% sell through is in practice a sell-out. So, I suppose you're right. I just hope that people will not lose interest because of shortages.

DKCR is a monster.

Retro should be glad their game can sell so well even in Japan.

 

[Spiegel]

Well, a 90% sell through is in practice a sell-out. So, I suppose you're right. I just hope that people will not lose interest because of shortages.

There is no shortage.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

There is no shortage.

Thus is the demand matching exactly the offer?

 

[jj984jj]

Thus is the demand matching exactly the offer?

We probably won't find out until next week how it's doing now, but it isn't sold out anymore.

 

[Parmenides]

is this the year when ps3 overtake wii?

-PS3’s threat is 3DS not Wii.

Andriasang:A Visual Guide to February's Console Releases


-To be fair,Wii was never a threat;in fact the PS3 has lived under the shadow of DS/PSP.

-The PS3 was forced to adjust.The system spent four years creating a software market for third-party developers.

- Both DS and PSP will be gone soon.The NGP might have trouble gaining traction,but 3DS will be massively successful because consumers love Nintendo games.Make no mistake,Nintendo's next-gen handheld is where the real threat lies.

- However,as far as I know,Japanese third parties are moving slowly towards the PS3.In my opinion,PS3 third-party software sales will obliterate sales on handhelds.In addition, there are some problems worth discussing:

- As the new generation of handhelds emerged,development costs skyrocketed (*)

- PS3 development costs are declining

- PS3 user base stands at 6.2 million (PS360 sold 7.8 million)

- Sony will likely cut the price of the PS3 in 2011.If I'm right,the new generation of handhelds will be more expensive than the PS3.


(*) Marvelous caps 3DS game development at $1.8M per title

During a recent investor call,a Marvelous representative said that, "while costs vary based on game content," the company would spend an estimated ¥50 million to ¥150 million ($600K to $1.8M) on the development of a single 3DS game

Marvelous' 3DS spending money is significantly higher than the ¥4.4 million to ¥43.9 million per title (roughly $50K–525K) Japanese companies spent on developing (regular) DS games last year, according to data gathered by TGS sponsor and promotional organization CESA. More interestingly, Marvelous' ¥150-million cap for a 3DS game represents a figure more than double the cost of the last year's most expensive Japanese PSP title, which, while unnamed, cost ¥59.2 million to developby CESA's account. (The cheapest PSP game cost its maker just ¥3 million.)

If Marvelous' budget is indicative of other companies' 3DS game costs -- and, certainly, some of these guys are likely to splurge -- then developing for the platform could prove more expensive than for Wii

It will never overtake the Wii, it's too far behind.

Third Party Community is way more powerful than you realize.

Media Create Sales: (Jan 22,2007 - Jan 28,2007)

Wii 86,395
PS3 19,996

Media Create Sales: (Jan 24,2011 - Jan 30,2011)

PS3 25,149
Wii 19,448

However,the PS3 will have to deal with 3DS.Third party software sales will decide the winner.

 

[Chris1964]

-PS3’s threat is 3DS not Wii.

However,the PS3 will have to deal with 3DS.Third party software sales will decide the winner.

You learn something new every day.

 

[Deku]

^

Mountain out of a molehill?

Development money is limited, and in that universe, yes it is a zero sum game. But in the context of JPN sales, It's pretty clear handhelds have the upper hand, and will likely continue to have the upper hand.

A maturing PS3 market will obviously compete for some of 3DS support and dev resources, but to say it is a primary threat or conversely, that 3DS is a primary threat to the PS3 is a little over the top.

This would be like saying the Gamecube was a threat to the PSP.

 

[Cipherr]

Third party software sales will decide the winner.

Lets not kid ourselves. The hardware sales competition between Wii and PS3 ended years ago. PS3 can take a YTD victory perhaps, but it wont ever overtake the Wii. The ship has sailed on that front.

 

[Stumpokapow]

That's probably true. It'll easily outsell Xenoblade, but I'd really like it to outsell ToS2, as well. It's already tracking under ToS2's and Graces's first week.

A few notes:
1) Tales is frontloaded as a series in a way that pretty much no other series is.
2) Existing IPs are more frontloaded than new IPs
3) Nintendo games as a whole tend to be less frontloaded although obviously certain subsets of the games (particularly mega-bomba games) might end up being frontloaded.

So I wouldn't necessarily say "Tales did 200k and started at 150k so TLS will only do 150k".

 

[Diffense]

Seems I was pretty much on target.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=25637006&postcount=272

It's a decent opening for a new RPG ip on Wii; TLS is not FF or DQ.
Xenoblade was able to double its initial sales on legs so we'll see how this one does.

 

[test_account]

When trackers shows how big percentage sell-through a game has, is this based on the 1st shipment only? If a game gets a 2nd shipment within the first tracking week, is the 2nd shipment taken into account for the percentage sell-through?

 

[Chris1964]

When trackers shows how big percentage sell-through a game has, is this based on the 1st shipment only? If a game gets a 2nd shipment within the first tracking week, is the 2nd shipment taken into account for the percentage sell-through?

Full shipment sell-through obviously.

 

[VerTiGo]

I'm trying to wrap my head around how some are knocking The Last Story's debut sales as if they are low, when the game has sold through its initial shipment... What's the logic? Other than being -- ignorant.

 

[Meier]

More 360 games in the top 20 than Wii. Has to be a first, right?

 

[Chris1964]

More 360 games in the top 20 than Wii. Has to be a first, right?

Νο, 360 came out one year earlier than Wii, bwahaha.

 

[icecream]

08. / 00. [360] Dream Club Zero (D3 Publisher) {2011.01.27} - 21.734 / NEW

13. / 00. [360] Gal Gun (Alchemist) {2011.01.27} - 12.419 / NEW

If it wasn't evident before, it should be now: the 360 is definitely so far troubled and in decline that even the niche crowd won't save it anymore. The original Dream C Club opened up with more than double the first week sales that the prequel has gotten. This is not even mentioning the crazy amount of features that have been added to Dream Club Zero over the first. Gal Gun seemed like it should have done around what DC:Z did, so Alchemist might not be too happy either.

All of this points to Idolm@ster 2 completely bombing upon release. It'll be curious to see in the following year who is still be foolish enough to stick around for the console once everyone realizes the 360 isn't even the niche console of choice anymore.

It's almost comedic how MS is completely letting everything slip away from them over the past few years. Hopefully they don't intend on pushing in Japan at all next generation, because they'll be hard pressed finding a fraction of the goodwill all the Japanese developers gave them that they squandered this generation.

 

[TheFLYINGManga_Ka]

Great for Last Story and VC3.

These are the two games I want localized! Hope this is a good sign!

 

[Chris1964]

All of this points to Idolm@ster 2 completely bombing upon release. It'll be curious to see in the following year who is still be foolish enough to stick around for the console once everyone realizes the 360 isn't even the niche console of choice anymore.

There many upcoming Japanese developed Kinect games that look kinda high profile.

 

[Spiegel]

Great for Last Story and VC3.

These are the two games I want localized! Hope this is a good sign!

http://www.play-asia.com/Valkyria_C...d_Chronicles/paOS-13-71-b9-49-en-70-421d.html

 

[test_account]

Full shipment sell-through obviously.

Ok, so we dont know the full shipment of The Last Story since Famitsu only reported the 1st day sellthrough (assuming that the 2nd shipment (if there was a 2nd shipment) came after the 1st day)?