Media Create Sales: Week 04, 2011 (Jan 24 - Jan 30)

Apr 18, 2005
18,797
0
0
Parmenides said:
-PS3’s threat is 3DS not Wii.
PS3 is mainly the recipient of 360 ports (not going to 3DS instead) and Japanese-focused, console-focused titles (probably not going to 3DS instead). In short, there is no realistic "battle" between handhelds and PS3 brewing except in the sense that they both take consumers time in the overall video game marketplace.

Parmenides said:
-To be fair,Wii was never a threat;in fact the PS3 has lived under the shadow of DS/PSP.
To be fair, third-parties pretty much never tried on Wii, and in terms of total software, Wii doubles PS3 from Nintendo's graph. It then follows that is Wii can sell so much software that if third-parties had tried harder to bring the experiences they are used to making to the Wii early on to build an audience, then they would've done much better on the platform, very likely selling a whole lot more than they ever did on PS3, in total.

To say it was "never" a threat in terms of third-party potential is ignoring what actually happened in terms of development and "push" from publishers.

Parmenides said:
- However,as far as I know,Japanese third parties are moving slowly towards the PS3.In my opinion,PS3 third-party software sales will obliterate sales on handhelds.
They've been moving toward the PSP, in terms of number of releases, since early last year. Chris1964 and myself have both discussed the strange lack of DS releases since early last year. Not sure where you see a movement toward PS3, though. As for your "opinion," *shrugs* we'll see, but that seems exceedingly unlikely.

Parmenides said:
- PS3 user base stands at 6.2 million (PS360 sold 7.8 million)
DS reached 6.2m in 15 months from launch, and it hardly rocketed out of the gate to begin with. And as we've seen with the more popular systems, low total userbase doesn't prevent games from selling big. PS3 has a declining FF title as its only million-seller after 4 years. I wouldn't be surprised to see one or more million-selling 3DS title(s) in 2011.

Parmenides said:
Third party software sales will decide the winner.
They didn't with either "winner" this generation, though. PSP had better third-party sales than NDS early on, and the Wii situation is already discussed.
 
Jan 13, 2007
16,573
107
1,145
However,as far as I know,Japanese third parties are moving slowly towards the PS3.In my opinion,PS3 third-party software sales will obliterate sales on handhelds.
Actually, I suspect that Japanese third parties knew the new handhelds were coming, so slowed down on releases.

Handhelds > Consoles in Japan. I suspect that the handhelds will once again get a shit load of RPGs.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
He could have the sell-through only if he was a Famitsu/Media Create/Dengeki subscriber. 150k is a logic number but it looks more for a guess. Has this blog given any other leaked numbers before?
 
Dec 5, 2005
12,212
0
0
France
icecream said:
If it wasn't evident before, it should be now: the 360 is definitely so far troubled and in decline that even the niche crowd won't save it anymore. The original Dream C Club opened up with more than double the first week sales that the prequel has gotten. This is not even mentioning the crazy amount of features that have been added to Dream Club Zero over the first. Gal Gun seemed like it should have done around what DC:Z did, so Alchemist might not be too happy either.

All of this points to Idolm@ster 2 completely bombing upon release. It'll be curious to see in the following year who is still be foolish enough to stick around for the console once everyone realizes the 360 isn't even the niche console of choice anymore.

It's almost comedic how MS is completely letting everything slip away from them over the past few years. Hopefully they don't intend on pushing in Japan at all next generation, because they'll be hard pressed finding a fraction of the goodwill all the Japanese developers gave them that they squandered this generation.
Look in the top 20 what was released at the same time, they were competing for the same niche. Maybe the games will sell the same in the long term.
 
Apr 10, 2007
2,528
0
875
Indiana
ivysaur12 said:
Because it could indicate undershiping and losing some potential business to used copies before there is a second shipment. I have no idea what the ideal target range that publisher like to go for during the first week, but I would think 90% would be a bit too high.
Apparently, the sales are beyond the publisher's expectations. That's a good thing, but they do need to ship more very fast before they permanently miss out on potential sales.
 
Feb 20, 2007
7,957
0
970
Spain
Chris1964 said:
He could have the sell-through only if he was a Famitsu/Media Create/Dengeki subscriber. 150k is a logic number but it looks more for a guess. Has this blog given any other leaked numbers before?
I got the link from 2ch. Never visited that blog before.
 

Saiyar

Unconfirmed Member
Dec 12, 2007
1,969
0
0
Zoe said:
PS2 sold more than PSP in Q1? :lol
Sold more than the xbox 360 that quarter aswell. It just keeps on selling.

Software numbers
PS3: 57.6m
PSP: 16.5m
PS2: 5.3m

PSP figures crap as expected. PS3 has best ever quarter.
 
Jun 7, 2004
114,759
1
0
37
Parmenides said:
(*) Marvelous caps 3DS game development at $1.8M per title
During a recent investor call,a Marvelous representative said that, "while costs vary based on game content," the company would spend an estimated ¥50 million to ¥150 million ($600K to $1.8M) on the development of a single 3DS game

Marvelous' 3DS spending money is significantly higher than the ¥4.4 million to ¥43.9 million per title (roughly $50K–525K) Japanese companies spent on developing (regular) DS games last year, according to data gathered by TGS sponsor and promotional organization CESA. More interestingly, Marvelous' ¥150-million cap for a 3DS game represents a figure more than double the cost of the last year's most expensive Japanese PSP title, which, while unnamed, cost ¥59.2 million to developby CESA's account. (The cheapest PSP game cost its maker just ¥3 million.)

If Marvelous' budget is indicative of other companies' 3DS game costs -- and, certainly, some of these guys are likely to splurge -- then developing for the platform could prove more expensive than for Wii
I want to reply to this because this is the first time I've seen this version of the article, and the translation is not entirely accurate.

The part that caught my attention was when they said that Marvelous' 3DS budget will be higher than the most expensive Japanese PSP title in 2009, which cost 59.2 million yen. This is inaccurate.

What CESA does in regards to polling development costs for each year, is that they will poll a certain number of titles for each platform for their development costs, and then average it out. It is the average cost which is released in their findings, along with how many titles were polled for that average each year.

For each platform they do two types of polling: high-end and low-end. For 2009, the high-end cost of PSP development averaged out to 59.2 million yen based on 56 higher cost titles polled. The lower end cost of PSP development average out to 3 million yen, based on 26 titles polled.

Now, this doesn't change the meaning of the article, which is basically that Marvelous plans on spending significantly more on 3DS development than the average high-end cost of making a PSP game, but I felt the need to clarify that there isn't a specific "most expensive" title in 2009 which cost 59.2 million yen to develop. Instead it is far more likely that the most expensive title in 2009 cost far more than 59.2 million, and the average was lowered by many other lower costing (but not budget level) games.
 
Jun 7, 2004
114,759
1
0
37
Actually looking at the yearly numbers, I think CESA is polling every single game released on that platform. They're split such that a "budget title" is defined as a title which costs 3000yen or less, and/or is a budget re-release. Everything else is a normal title. Maybe Chris or someone else can run a database check to see how many PSP games were released in Japan in 2009?
 

Dash Kappei

Not actually that important
Apr 8, 2005
15,737
1
0
twitter.com
Effect said:
Perhaps Nintendo held back the shipped on purpose. Make it hard to get at first. That might create more buzz around it and make people wonder if it's really that good if that it sold out. Most won't look that threads like this or sales information to find out how many were initially shipped. So they'll look for it more the next time they are in the store as their interest has been peaked. Then again maybe not.
Hardware, NO.
New Hardware, maybe.
Software, NO.
New software, NEVER.
 
Jan 16, 2007
42,665
3
1,040
It's perhaps a little early to say, but it looks like DKCR sales are levelling off, and doing so at a pretty healthy value. While I don't think it's a NSMBWii or a Mario Kart, I think we'll see it back in the charts during quiet weeks.
 
Apr 17, 2005
6,476
0
1,200
Bit late but results, congratulations to Road on the ranking by units and onken in the ranking by points/percentages.
Code:
Results	By Units			By Points	
1	 53887	Road			 58,39%	onken
2	 56000	onken			 59,46%	Road
3	 57886	FINALFANTASYDOG		 63,50%	Kurosaki Ichigo
4	 60000	Kurosaki Ichigo		 69,19%	FINALFANTASYDOG
5	 71000	ULTROS!			 78,68%	ULTROS!
6	 86000	duckroll		 94,39%	duckroll
7	 91145	Chris1964		 95,34%	Kenka
8	 93100	Kenka			103,12%	Chris1964
9	111000	cw_sasuke		113,73%	cw_sasuke
10	116000	Baki			125,14%	Baki
11	123000	Orgen			128,66%	Orgen
12	134000	Cygnus X-1		136,30%	Cygnus X-1
13	154000	Spiegel			164,79%	Spiegel
14	226000	RurouniZel		254,22%	RurouniZel

01/24-01/30	Sales	Chris	Baki	Spieg	Rurou	Kenka	Cygnu	Orgen	duckr	Road	Kuro	cw_sa	FINAL	ULTRO	onken
PSP Valkyria 3	103000	123456	155000	163000	125000	111500	161000	141000	120000	133333	147000	127000	113232	120000	130000
PSP Kenka 5	59000	78901	72000	80000	90000	63000	58000	69000	70000	66666	67000	55000	72543	70000	60000
PSP Oreimo	88000	67890	57000	60000	200000	49700	39000	52000	55000	99999	87000	45000	63123	65000	65000
WII Last Story	115000	145678	135000	160000	176000	157300	89000	154000	90000	111111	122000	155000	124234	95000	110000													
															
Difference	0	91145	116000	154000	226000	93100	134000	123000	86000	53887	60000	111000	57886	71000	56000												
Difference (%)	0,00%	103,12%	125,14%	164,79%	254,22%	95,34%	136,30%	128,66%	94,39%	59,46%	63,50%	113,73%	69,19%	78,68%	58,39%
															
PSP Valkyria 3	0	20456	52000	60000	22000	8500	58000	38000	17000	30333	44000	24000	10232	17000	27000
PSP Kenka 5	0	19901	13000	21000	31000	4000	-1000	10000	11000	7666	8000	-4000	13543	11000	1000
PSP Oreimo	0	-20110	-31000	-28000	112000	-38300	-49000	-36000	-33000	11999	-1000	-43000	-24877	-23000	-23000
WII Last Story	0	30678	20000	45000	61000	42300	-26000	39000	-25000	-3889	7000	40000	9234	-20000	-5000
Past Predictions Results:
12/20-12/26 Predictions Results
12/06-12/12 Predictions Results
11/29-12/05 Predictions Results
Prediction League Results 2009-2010
 

Road

Member
Jan 21, 2008
7,602
0
0
Brazil
sites.google.com
duckroll said:
Actually looking at the yearly numbers, I think CESA is polling every single game released on that platform. They're split such that a "budget title" is defined as a title which costs 3000yen or less, and/or is a budget re-release. Everything else is a normal title. Maybe Chris or someone else can run a database check to see how many PSP games were released in Japan in 2009?
http://geimin.net/da/expense.php

I don't think they get numbers for every game released: http://www.gamefaqs.com/search/inde...her=&dist=0&sort=4&link=0&res=1&title=0&adv=1
 
Jun 7, 2004
114,759
1
0
37
Yeah that was the site I pulled to get all the yearly averages. And yes, it's clear that they don't poll every single game. It is like I initially thought: they poll a decent number of games released that year, but not every single one. I would venture to guess that the numbers they get will all be from CESA members as well. Afaik, Nintendo is not a member of CESA, right?

Anyway, congrats to Road and onken! :D
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
Saiyar said:
Sold more than the xbox 360 that quarter aswell. It just keeps on selling.

Software numbers
PS3: 57.6m
PSP: 16.5m
PS2: 5.3m

PSP figures crap as expected. PS3 has best ever quarter.
Mixing famitsu software marketshare with Media Create total software sales PSP sold 7 million software for the quarter in Japan. Shipments are obviously higher and it's safe to assume that Japan accounted for almost 50% of worldwide shipments or even more.
 
Dec 18, 2004
1,611
1
1,295
Spiegel said:
http://translate.googleusercontent....le.com&usg=ALkJrhi0vmpH1WpASIlps0yXYR7n5xKm1w

This blog says the first week shipment for The Last Story was ~150k (70% sell-through).
In any case, M-C will probably mention the shipment number tomorrow, but it's not uncommon for games to get a weekend re-stock
Considering that blogger is a media personality, and ascii's figures now give us last story shipment of around 160k and 65% sell-through, i assume him to be correct.

Which means his info that both MindJack versions are out of the top 50 and combined sold less then 3000(less then 30% sell through) is probably correct. I would not be surprised if it's the poorest selling non-limited edition square-enix game since the early 80's(Or perhapses Major Minor’s Majestic March)
 
Nov 26, 2009
3,344
0
0
Australia
FINALFANTASYDOG said:
Which means his info that both MindJack versions are out of the top 50 and combined sold less then 3000(less then 30% sell through) is probably correct. I would not be surprised if it's the poorest selling non-limited edition square-enix game since the early 80's
Wow, so it managed to underperform even though SE expected a total failure. No definite details, but it certainly seems to have been a similar disaster internationally. Well done, SE.
 
Feb 20, 2007
7,957
0
970
Spain
FINALFANTASYDOG said:
Considering that blogger is a media personality, and ascii's figures now give us last story shipment of around 160k and 65% sell-through, i assume him to be correct.
So The Last Story did get a weekend re-stock and wasn't sold out.


Shipment forecast from azalyn for games released in February:

[NDS] Ace Attorney Investigations 2 - 180k
[PSP] Macross Frontier - 100k
[PSP] WKC Portable - 70k
[PS3] Sengoku Musou Z - 200k
[PSP] Tales RM3 - 250k
[PS3] Catherine - 130k [360] - 20k
[PS3] Marvel VS Capcom - 80k [360] - 30k
[PS3] Disgaea 4 - 90k
[PS3] Killzone 3 - 70k
[PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 Infinity - 330k
[PSP] SD Gundam G Generation World - 200k [Wii] - 40k
[360] Idolmaster 2 - 50k
 

Saiyar

Unconfirmed Member
Dec 12, 2007
1,969
0
0
Chris1964 said:
Mixing famitsu software marketshare with Media Create total software sales PSP sold 7 million software for the quarter in Japan. Shipments are obviously higher and it's safe to assume that Japan accounted for almost 50% of worldwide shipments or even more.
Won't Monster Hunter alone be about 25% of shipments?
 
Apr 17, 2005
6,476
0
1,200
Easy week to choose titles, btw there was some discussion about Samurai Warriors 3, the Wii one here is cheapo (3990Y) because its the expansion meanwhile the PS3 one is both the original game and the expansion, thus retailing for 7140Y. The wii re-release a week or two ago was the original game in budget pricing. This way, those who bought the Wii game already (271k from Famitsu) aren't forced to buy a bundle to get the expansion while the PS3 base can get both combined. One could say, what about those who got the Wii one but only want the expansion on the PS3, well, those have to fork more money or get the Wii expansion.

Prediction League (02/07-02/13)

[PSP] Tales of the World: Radiant Mythology 3 (Bandai Namco) -
[WII] Samurai Warriors 3: Xtreme Legends (Koei Tecmo) -
[PS3] Samurai Warriors 3 Z (Koei Tecmo) -
[PS3] LittleBigPlanet 2 (SCE) -
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
21. / 16. [PSP] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2011 (Konami) {2010.11.18}
22. / 24. [PS3] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2011 (Konami) {2010.10.28}
23. / 15. [WII] Wii Sports Resort (w/ Remote Plus) (Nintendo) {2010.11.11}
24. / 21. [WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) {2009.10.01}
25. / 12. [WII] Momotaro Railway 2010: Sengoku Ishin no Hero Daishuugou! no Maki [Everyone's Recommendation Selection] (Hudson) {2011.01.20}
26. / 04. [NDS] Monster Busters: Powered (Bandai Namco) {2011.01.20}
27. / 13. [NDS] Magician's Quest: The Merchant’s Store of Sorcery (Konami) {2010.11.11}
28. / 14. [WII] Mario Sports Mix (Nintendo) {2010.11.25}
29. / 17. [WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii 3 (Bandai Namco) {2010.12.02}
30. / 18. [WII] Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo) {2008.04.10}
31. / 26. [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) {2009.12.03}
32. / 00. [NDS] Scribblenauts (Konami) {2011.01.27}
33. / 00. [PS3] Wizardry (Twin Pack) (Acquire) {2011.01.27}
34. / 30. [NDS] Super Fossil Fighters (Nintendo) {2010.11.18}
35. / 00. [NDS] Sora no Otoshimono Forte: Dreamy Season (Kadokawa Shoten) {2011.01.27}
36. / 28. [WII] Super Mario All-Stars (Nintendo) {2010.10.21}
37. / 20. [NDS] Eigo de Tabisuru: Little Charo (Nintendo) {2011.01.20}
38. / 23. [PS3] Arcana Heart 3 (Arc System Works) {2011.01.13}
39. / 29. [PS3] Call of Duty: Black Ops (Dubbed Edition) (Square Enix) {2010.12.16}
40. / 35. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) {2006.05.25}
41. / 34. [NDS] Mario Vs. Donkey Kong: Miniland Mayhem (Nintendo) {2010.12.02}
42. / 31. [PS3] Tales of Graces F (Bandai Namco) {2010.12.02}
43. / 11. [PSP] Another Century's Episode Portable (Bandai Namco) {2011.01.13}
44. / 22. [PSP] The 3rd Birthday (Square Enix) {2010.12.22}
45. / 38. [NDS] Friend Collection (Nintendo) {2009.06.18}
46. / 36. [WII] Samurai Warriors 3 [Everyone's Recommendation Selection] (Koei Tecmo) {2011.01.20}
47. / 19. [NDS] Love Zombies (Chunsoft) {2011.01.20}
48. / 42. [WII] Shape Boxing 2: Enjoy the Diet on Wii! (Rocket Company) {2010.12.16}
49. / 33. [NDS] Momotaro Railway: World (Hudson) {2010.12.02}
50. / 39. [PS3] Resident Evil 5: Gold Edition [PlayStation 3 the Best] (Capcom) {2010.11.11}

00. / 00. [ALL] Software Sales 2011 (All Publishers) {2011.01.24} - 1.094.937 / 3.940.557 (+61%)


NDS - 14
WII - 13
PSP - 12
PS3 - 7
360 - 4
3DS - 0
PS2 - 0
 

Road

Member
Jan 21, 2008
7,602
0
0
Brazil
sites.google.com
Dengeki Sales, Jan 24 - 30, 2011:

01. / 00. [WII] The Last Story (Nintendo) - 108,243 / 108,243
02. / 00. [PSP] Valkyria Chronicles III (SEGA) - 102,341 / 102,341
03. / 00. [PSP] Ore no Imouto ga Konna ni Kawaii Wake ga Nai Portable (Bandai Namco) - 95,415 / 95,415
04. / 00. [PSP] Kenka Banchou 5: Otoko no Housoku (Spike) - 64,570 / 64,570
05. / 00. [PSP] Toaru Majutsu no Index (ASCII Media Works) - 57,903 / 57,903
06. / 02. [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (Capcom) - 40,589 / 4,184,888
07. / 00. [PS3] Dragon Age: Origins (Spike) - 39,723 / 39,723
08. / 03. [WII] Donkey Kong Country Returns (Nintendo) - 20,961 / 788,511
09. / 01. [PSP] Kingdom Hearts: Birth by Sleep Final Mix (Square Enix) - 20,020 / 100,460
10. / 00. [360] Dream Club Zero (D3 Publisher) - 15,547 / 15,547
11. / 00. [PSP] Tsuku Monogatari (FuRyu) - 13,880 / 13,880
12. / 00. [360] Dragon Age: Origins (Spike) - 11,480 / 11,480
13. / 04. [PSP] AKB1/48: Idol to Koishitara... (Bandai Namco) - 11,106 / 367,443
14. / 07. [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 3: Sekai e no Chousen! The Ogre (Level 5) - 11,037 / 385,927
15. / 00. [360] Gal*Gun (Alchemist) - 10,727 / 10,727
16. / 13. [PSP] Pro Evolution Soccer 2011 (Konami) - 9,994 / ?
17. / 09. [WII] Wii Party (Nintendo) - 9,647 / 1,734,332
18. / 08. [NDS] Ni no Kuni: Shikkoku no Madoushi (Level 5) - 9,226 / 451,300
19. / 10. [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 8,969 / 2,279,215
20. / 00. [360] Monster Hunter Frontier Online: Season 10 - Premium Package (Capcom) - 8,406 / 8,406


Other software (first week / LTD):
2010-01-21 [PSP] Valkyria Chronicles II (Sega) - 91,000 / 146,000


Sell-through
[WII] The Last Story ~65%
[PSP] Valkyria Chronicles III ~70%



Code:
Hardware |  This Week |  Last Week |   YTD    |    LTD
------------------------------------------------------------
PSP      |     32,471 |     32,949 |  239,301 | 16,539,626
PS3      |     24,473 |     24,646 |  213,867 |  6,305,490
NDS      |     22,459 |     22,278 |  264,368 | 32,151,743
WII      |     17,494 |     14,040 |  189,337 | 11,463,464
360      |     	2,942 |      2,281 |   17,498 |  1,463,078
PS2      |     	1,527 |      1,353 |    8,449 | 	
------------------------------------------------------------
Total    |    101,366 |     97,547 |  925,898 |
http://ascii.jp/elem/000/000/586/586134/
http://news.dengeki.com/elem/000/000/342/342549/
http://research.ascii.jp/elem/000/000/066/66143/
http://megalodon.jp/2011-0204-2231-53/news.dengeki.com/soft/ranking/ranking.html



Week 4 - 2011-01-17~2011-01-23
Week 3 - 2011-01-10~2011-01-16
Week 2 - 2011-01-03~2011-01-09
Week 1 - 2010-12-27~2011-01-02
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
May 21, 2006
17,232
3
0
FINALFANTASYDOG said:
Which means his info that both MindJack versions are out of the top 50 and combined sold less then 3000(less then 30% sell through) is probably correct. I would not be surprised if it's the poorest selling non-limited edition square-enix game since the early 80's(Or perhapses Major Minor’s Majestic March)
Provided you exclude their DS casual lineup (Pingu, Snoopy, those wine tasting guides, etc) this is definitely true.
 
Aug 30, 2009
16,882
0
680
Did N1 give any numbers for the sales Disgaea 4 would have to do to save them. 100k , 150k , 200k ? wonder how much it would take.
Hope the NA sales also help and they don't shut down before then .
 
Jun 7, 2004
30,398
1
0
37
Orange County, CA
N1 is so dead. Everything added in the D4 trailer looks like it does nothing to expand on the Disgaea fanbase at all. Online vs.? Yeah, that'll really add any sales in Japan and not be a waste of resources @_@

Just remaking same-old Disgaea with bigger, cleaner sprites was not the answer to saving the company. Would have been better to focus on more low budget creative games for PSP like Zettai Hero 2.
 
Apr 22, 2007
12,914
0
0
antonz said:
Following the trends they will fall short of the 15 million goal in reality but extra channel stuff to reach it.
People keep saying this every year, then CQ2 comes along without any sign of an "unstuffing" dip to prove it, nobody apologizes, a new generation is born, and the same shit comes up again the year after.
 
So hey guys. Last time I had a hard drive fail on me, I lamented losing Primary Source Data, even if I or others still had the same information stored in some other fashion. At the time I said in the future I should be sure to share this stuff more often, but I have never got around to doing this. Why not now? Here is a 1.1 MB RAR which for the tail end of 2009 through the present has almost all of the saved HTML of Media Create software/hardware, Dengeki software, Famitsu software, Famitsu hardware, the Yahoo version of Famitsu's listings, and the images of Famitsu's hardware and software pie data from before they had them automatically generated. There was still the rare week when I wouldn't remember to save things before they'd been replaced, and I couldn't find the old version through a Google cache or something.

Cygnus X-1 said:
Retro shouled be glad their game can sell so well even in Japan.
It sure isn't hurting their average!

(Few weeks out of date, but the point remains)
Chris1964 said:
32. / 00. [NDS] Scribblenauts (Konami) {2011.01.27}
Super Scribblenauts, yes?