Media Create Sales: Week 2, 2015 (Jan 05 - Jan 11)

Aug 7, 2013
12,280
0
0
PS4 topping out at 5 million? I think that's way too low.

It won't set the charts on fire, but there basically has been no interesting software on PS4 other than GTAV in Japan, and it has sold past the 1 million mark already. Even if you're going by averages, it's already selling at a higher rate than 1 million PS4s/year without any compelling software.

I know that there's the initial launch week sales, but even then, good games are going to make a huge difference and March will be a big example of that.
 
Jan 25, 2012
22,624
0
0
PS4 topping out at 5 million? I think that's way too low.

It won't set the charts on fire, but there basically has been no interesting software on PS4 other than GTAV in Japan, and it has sold past the 1 million mark already. Even if you're going by averages, it's already selling at a higher rate than 1 million PS4s/year without any compelling software.

I know that there's the initial launch week sales, but even then, good games are going to make a huge difference and March will be a big example of that.
But that includes launch as well and a lot of the Japanese devs are probably going to go multiplat when it comes to Sony platforms.
 
PS4 topping out at 5 million? I think that's way too low.

It won't set the charts on fire, but there basically has been no interesting software on PS4 other than GTAV in Japan, and it has sold past the 1 million mark already. Even if you're going by averages, it's already selling at a higher rate than 1 million PS4s/year without any compelling software.
Those people are presumably buying it based on future potential though, no?

At that point, it becomes the Smash/Mario Kart issue. How many people who want the big announced games will already own the system by the time those come out?

We're a bit early for that to be an astronomical impact yet, but it is an example of how a system can slow down significantly if most of the people who want a big game already own the system, despite that big game releasing.
 
Aug 7, 2013
12,280
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0
Those people are presumably buying it based on future potential though, no?

At that point, it becomes the Smash/Mario Kart issue. How many people who want the big announced games will already own the system by the time those come out?

We're a bit early for that to be an astronomical impact yet, but it is an example of how a system can slow down significantly if most of the people who want a big game already own the system, despite that big game releasing.
The DQ Heroes console for one showed how a demand or interest for an actual game that people care for can make a big difference. I believe it comes with the promise of the game itself, and the March retail release should have similar numbers.

I see the PS4 having a pretty consistent ride with low sales but there are going to be spikes here and there for the games that people care for. It won't be great, but it certainly won't be 5 million in my opinion. That's also assuming that the system would top out at 5 years which it likely won't.
 
Aug 25, 2013
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Honestly the PS3 on average sold a bit more than 1M (around and a bit above 1.5M in its better years) each year, so it was slow but steady.
hmm, now that I look at it (using Media Create):
2006: 457,558
2007: 1,184,118
2008: 980,797
2009: 1,764,531
2010: 1,586,122
2011: 1,548,895
2012: 1,223,699
2013: 849,590
2014: 459,317

and as a bonus, Wii as well:
2006: 919,643
2007: 3,696,517
2008: 2,862,818
2009: 1,962,367
2010: 1,674,438
2011: 883,583
2012: 475,615
2013: 72,082 (lol)
2014: N/A
If I may ask, what is ALTTP2? I can't place the abbreviation and its confusing me as to what people are discussing on this page, lol.
ALTTP2=ALBW
 
Sep 2, 2014
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0
A Link To The Past 2, or A Link Between Worlds.
Oh. Alright that makes more sense.

The DQ Heroes console for one showed how a demand or interest for an actual game that people care for can make a big difference. I believe it comes with the promise of the game itself, and the March retail release should have similar numbers.

I see the PS4 having a pretty consistent ride with low sales but there are going to be spikes here and there for the games that people care for. It won't be great, but it certainly won't be 5 million in my opinion. That's also assuming that the system would top out at 5 years which it likely won't.
The DQH bundle took weeks to sell through... a limited edition, mind you. There's more obviously a LACK of demand even with a big IP slapped on the thing.

I must be overly pessimistic in thinking that the PS4 will not do much better than the WiiU for much the reasons that Nirolak stated, people who want anything on the system now or future have already likely started buying, have bought, or will buy before any big titles hit. Leaving those big titles to have minimal effects that are further stifled by the multi-platform nature of many of the titles. It'll end up higher than the WiiU but higher than the 7th level of Hell is still Hell.
 
Sep 25, 2008
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Oh. Alright that makes more sense.



The DQH bundle took weeks to sell through... a limited edition, mind you. There's more obviously a LACK of demand even with a big IP slapped on the thing.

I must be overly pessimistic in thinking that the PS4 will not do much better than the WiiU for much the reasons that Nirolak stated, people who want anything on the system now or future have already likely started buying, have bought, or will buy before any big titles hit. Leaving those big titles to have minimal effects that are further stifled by the multi-platform nature of many of the titles. It'll end up higher than the WiiU but higher than the 7th level of Hell is still Hell.
The bundle costs more than the game and PS4 combined because it has some USB cover or something.
 
Mar 9, 2012
3,567
0
445
Spain
As crinale says, the DQH bundle was overpriced. That's why it took so many weeks to sell through, i think.

Prices (taxes not included)

PS4 - 39,980¥
Dragon Quest Heroes - 7,800¥
Total - 47,780¥

DQH PS4 Bundle - 49,990¥

So, the console + retail game is cheaper than the themed version of PS4 plus the download code and the Lime USB.

I guess the Lime USB was 2.210¥ then.
 
Jul 28, 2012
26,651
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0
That without the first two weeks (launch weeks), PS4 is barely above the WiiU as far as sales go and is tracking significantly behind the WiiU launch aligned so.. what exactly are YOU trying to say?

You do realise that they prety much sold the same amount of units overall since april right? So if the WiiU is dead (which it is), what does that say about the PS4?

Sony should be thankfull that the PS4 is selling so well in the west, otherwise they'd have a serious problem as far as japanese third party support goes (which has prety much dwindled to franchises that sell well if not better in the west than in Japan now).
I was going to reply but Shinra explained it better.

The Wii U sold what it sold in the presence of two of the biggest games it will get in the cycle. It has saturated most of its market potential. Those are the distinctions.

The PS4 is overall going to do poorly in Japan. It will probably top out at around 5M or thereabouts. But it has yet to receive much in the way of locally appealing software, it is still set to receive software support beyond that of the hardware vendor, and has not shown as yet that it is reaching product saturation that would lead one to ascribe dead system status.
WiiU is a dead system in Japan. PS4's future is still up in the air as we don't know how it will react when it does get its big sellers. Its future is also more promising due to third party support.
 
Feb 28, 2009
9,062
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0
Tokyo
WiiU is a dead system in Japan. PS4's future is still up in the air as we don't know how it will react when it does get its big sellers. Its future is also more promising due to third party support.
The problem with the PS4 is that the big sellers are still years away. It is very possible to lose what little momentum there is before the needed software is released. That's why it is crucial to have a strong launch with desirable titles.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Sep 9, 2006
27,410
1
0
So Pokemon Shuffle hits next month worldwide ? Im really interested to see how it performs, for me its one of the most important Nintendo releases this year. The download numbers for this one will be very interesting - "First Party", Mayor IP and using a proven a mobile/web proven F2P mechanic.

We already saw 3rd party f2p title like Denpa Men breaking the million mark in Japan alone. Pokemon Shuffle is more or less what a current mobile Pokemon Puzzler would be, it will be interesting to see how big the overlap is between gamers who play such mobile games and those who are willing to try it on a handheld.

Multiple million download would be the best way to show big mobile developers that they need get their development pipelines ready for 3DS and more importantly for the follow up. Of course with launch date, feature parity and updates hitting all three mobile systems at the same time.
 

L~A

Member
Jan 19, 2013
12,188
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So, looks like Legend of Legacy is a N3DS-enhanced games, if that I'm reading that tweet corectly. From the looks of it, loading are slightly (but only slightly) better due to the more powerful CPU.

That's pretty cool. All games released in 2015 should take advantage of the N3DS that way.
 
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
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www.wiitalia.it
So Pokemon Shuffle hits next month worldwide ? Im really interested to see how it performs, for me its one of the most important Nintendo releases this year. The download numbers for this one will be very interesting - "First Party", Mayor IP and using a proven a mobile/web proven F2P mechanic.

We already saw 3rd party f2p title like Denpa Men breaking the million mark in Japan alone. Pokemon Shuffle is more or less what a current mobile Pokemon Puzzler would be, it will be interesting to see how big the overlap is between gamers who play such mobile games and those who are willing to try it on a handheld.

Multiple million download would be the best way to show big mobile developers that they need get their development pipelines ready for 3DS and more importantly for the follow up. Of course with launch date, feature parity and updates hitting all three mobile systems at the same time.
Pokémon games are very popular on the eShop: Pokémon Radar, Pokémon Link Battle and Pokémon TGC all topped the rankings, and in some countries are the best-selling games so far. Shuffle should do just fine, but it will hardly be a money-maker, in my opinion.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Sep 9, 2006
27,410
1
0
Pokémon games are very popular on the eShop: Pokémon Radar, Pokémon Link Battle and Pokémon TGC all topped the rankings, and in some countries are the best-selling games so far. Shuffle should do just fine, but it will hardly be a money-maker, in my opinion.
"just do fine" isnt enough for this kind of game. Of course Pokemon games do well compared to most other games on the eShop. But this is the first f2p game using a proven mechanic. How much money it makes in short term is less important, than how many users they can reach and get to download the title, how often it will be updated and how many events the game will have...just to how far they will go when adopting the mobile trends of the the past years.

Performance will be more interesting to watch than what Zelda, Xenoblade 3DS and co. will sell.


btw. LoL should clear +100k, otherwise it would be disappointing considering the system it is on and the production values/target demographic.
 
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
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www.wiitalia.it
Production values might seem higher than an average FuRyu game, but it's not comparable to other jRPGs such as Bravely Default or even Atlus' games. The game is doing well on Amazon and Comgnet, and if it's good it'll have wom so it can have legs.
 
Jul 28, 2012
26,651
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0
The problem with the PS4 is that the big sellers are still years away. It is very possible to lose what little momentum there is before the needed software is released. That's why it is crucial to have a strong launch with desirable titles.
I wonder what the rest of PS4's 2015 lineup is going to look like. MGSV, Persona 5, iirc there should be a Gundam and Idolmaster game, possibly a Tales of Zestiria port and Hot Shots golf.

The big sellers like FF, RE, DQ, KH are certainly looking like 2016+ games.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Sep 9, 2006
27,410
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0
Bigger Atlus games or BD sell way more than 100k anyway, sounds like a realistic goal even if it ends up falling short a bit.
 
Mar 13, 2013
12,412
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I'm honestly not seeing what makes LoL notably higher production values than Lost Dimension or Exstetra. For one both of those titles have extensive voice work which LoL doesn't.
LoL also looks like a DS game, whilst Exstetra looks like a PSP game

It's definitely been better received and better promoted but I don't think its budget is that much higher to expect it to sell several times what those titles did. Well it would several times Lost Dimension even if it uber-bombed.
 
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
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www.wiitalia.it
I'm honestly not seeing what makes LoL notably higher production values than Lost Dimension or Exstetra. For one both of those titles have extensive voice work which LoL doesn't.
LoL also looks like a DS game, whilst Exstetra looks like a PSP game

It's definitely been better received and better promoted but I don't think its budget is that much higher to expect it to sell several times what those titles did. Well it would several times Lost Dimension even if it uber-bombed.
I feel sometimes people misunderstand online (also viral) marketing, and typical advertising with how much the development costed. FuRyu has been good in raising awareness in Legend of Legacy, by hitting the right "nostalgia" notes in those SaGa fans, and those jRPG players that miss a more traditional experience. FuRyu opened a Twitter account, released many beautiful trailers, let Famitsu covering the game in previews, did a few ads in train stations.

The fact that people talk a lot about the game is because it might be the right game at the right time, and not because FuRyu pushed a lot in marketing and advertising. The same was true for Bravely Default.
 
Mar 13, 2013
12,412
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I feel sometimes people misunderstand online (also viral) marketing, and typical advertising with how much the development costed. FuRyu has been good in raising awareness in Legend of Legacy, by hitting the right "nostalgia" notes in those SaGa fans, and those jRPG players that miss a more traditional experience. FuRyu opened a Twitter account, released many beautiful trailers, let Famitsu covering the game in previews, did a few ads in train stations.

The fact that people talk a lot about the game is because it might be the right game at the right time, and not because FuRyu pushed a lot in marketing and advertising. The same was true for Bravely Default.
Well the train stations ads and Famitsu coverage are more than they did for LD and Exstetra but as you said it's nothing compared to big advertising pushes.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
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YSO predictions

Week 4, 2015 (Jan 19 - Jan 25)

Tales of Zestiria (wk1) < Tales of Xillia 2 (wk1)
Legend of Legacy (wk1) > 1/3 * Bravely Default: Flying Fairy (wk1)
 
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
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www.wiitalia.it
YSO predictions

Week 4, 2015 (Jan 19 - Jan 25)

Tales of Zestiria (wk1) < Tales of Xillia 2 (wk1)
Legend of Legacy (wk1) > 1/3 * Bravely Default: Flying Fairy (wk1)
So more than 50k.

Well the train stations ads and Famitsu coverage are more than they did for LD and Exstetra but as you said it's nothing compared to big advertising pushes.
LD and Exstetra got Famitsu coverage. We don't know how much they were advertised through the general public.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Sep 9, 2006
27,410
1
0
I don't quite get the BD comparison, we are talking about a small publisher title where gotten 100k would be a success. While Bravely Default was surprise hit, it still was a SE RPG unveiled on the mayor Fall 2011 Direct.

But we will now for sure in a couple of days... Start +50k sounds to be in line with my 100k prediction/goal.
 
May 24, 2010
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I'm honestly not seeing what makes LoL notably higher production values than Lost Dimension or Exstetra. For one both of those titles have extensive voice work which LoL doesn't.
LoL also looks like a DS game, whilst Exstetra looks like a PSP game

It's definitely been better received and better promoted but I don't think its budget is that much higher to expect it to sell several times what those titles did. Well it would several times Lost Dimension even if it uber-bombed.
The game is probably low budget however it looks good and the marketing, while not expensive, has been well received by the target audience. Might be a bit soon to say that, but to me it seem FuRyu has spent their money wisely.

YSO predictions

Week 4, 2015 (Jan 19 - Jan 25)

Tales of Zestiria (wk1) < Tales of Xillia 2 (wk1)
Legend of Legacy (wk1) > 1/3 * Bravely Default: Flying Fairy (wk1)
Reminder, first week of sale (MC number) :
Tales of Xillia 2 : 364.439
Bravely Default: Flying Fairy : 141.529

[EDIT] Famitsu number :
Tales of Xillia 2 : 331.533
Bravely Default: Flying Fairy : 144.909
 
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
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www.wiitalia.it
I don't quite get the BD comparison, we are talking about a small publisher title where gotten 100k would be a success. While Bravely Default was surprise hit, it still was a SE RPG unveiled on the mayor Fall 2011 Direct.

But we will now for sure in a couple of days... Start +50k sounds to be in line with my 100k prediction/goal.
Sure, but people were saying that BD was heavily advertised by SQEX while all marketing activites were basically in the hands of the team.
 
Aug 7, 2011
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I don't quite get the BD comparison, we are talking about a small publisher title where gotten 100k would be a success. While Bravely Default was surprise hit, it still was a SE RPG unveiled on the mayor Fall 2011 Direct.
BD also had five, yes FIVE, different demos on the eshop prior to release, significantly increasing hype and player awareness over many months. The last demo was put on the eshop just 2 days before the game's release. LoL has had ZERO demos. Also note LoL scored well in Famitsu (9/8/9/8), but not as well as BD (10/9/9/10).
 
Sep 2, 2014
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So, looks like Legend of Legacy is a N3DS-enhanced games, if that I'm reading that tweet corectly. From the looks of it, loading are slightly (but only slightly) better due to the more powerful CPU.

That's pretty cool. All games released in 2015 should take advantage of the N3DS that way.
Looks like we're definitely going down the GBC route of how the two co-platforms will live on in history. Some limited exclusives to the higher tier console but the general boon is the enhanced play. Before it was color, now its the general end-user environment being enhanced and smoother.
 
Feb 20, 2007
7,957
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Spain
Namco sure is managing that Tales franchise well.

Maybe one day they can debut a new mainline entry at half of what the original Xellia did even without picking a difficult platform.
What were you expecting them to do?

PS3 (main Tales platform) with an expanded PS4 release (only place where they will port it) late this year/next year seems like the best option.

Vita and 3DS are outside of the scope of the game.
 
Mar 13, 2013
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What were you expecting them to do?

PS3 (main Tales platform) with an expanded PS4 release (only place where they will port it) late this year/next year seems like the best option.

Vita and 3DS are outside of the scope of the game.
They could probably have bigger gaps between releases and concentate more on quality. That might help in the long run.
 
Mar 13, 2013
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I would say that there has been enough time between releases. It's been more than 2 years since Xillia 2 and almost 3 and a half years since Xillia 1.
Oh, you are right there. I forgot the west had to catch up. I would say it might have been worth taking a couple of months and making it PS4-exclusive but they probably have made the best choice.
 
What were you expecting them to do?

PS3 (main Tales platform) with an expanded PS4 release (only place where they will port it) late this year/next year seems like the best option.

Vita and 3DS are outside of the scope of the game.
I don't think platforms or release timing are the problem.

I feel they're just fundamentally failing to excite their audience with the content they're making.
 
Sep 2, 2014
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I don't think platforms or release timing are the problem.

I feel they're just fundamentally failing to excite their audience with the content they're making.
The Tales series feels like its fallen into a common trap of sameyness that befalls a lot of established series. Which is a shame since Tales games tend to be different from one another but recent installments have been getting homogenized more and more. I wonder if this has to do with Bamco's just recent flurry of titles not succeeding much at all, and they are simply sticking to "what works" for fear of failure.
 
Mar 9, 2012
3,567
0
445
Spain
Tsutaya's Ranking Week 3 2015

01./01. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2: Shin Uchi <RPG> (Level 5)
02./00. [3DS] Kenka Bancho 6: Soul & Blood (Spike Chunsoft)
03./02. [3DS] Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS (Nintendo)
04./03. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate (Capcom)
05./04. [3DS] Pokemon Alpha Sapphire <RPG> (Pokemon Co.)
06./06. [WIU] Super Smash Bros. for Wii U <FTG> (Nintendo)
07./05. [3DS] Pokemon Omega Ruby <RPG> (Pokemon Co.)
08./07. [PSV] Gundam Breaker 2 <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games)
09./08. [3DS] Final Fantasy Explorers <RPG> (Square Enix)
10./09. [PS3] Gundam Breaker 2 <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games)
11./10. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan)
12./11. [PS3] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2015 (Konami)
13./12. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf <ETC> (Nintendo)
14./13. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2: Honke (Level 5)
15./14. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2: Ganso (Level 5)
16./18. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto V [Bargain Edition] <ACT> (Rockstar Games)
17./17. [PS3] Resident Evil HD Remaster <ADV> (Capcom)
18./21. [3DS] Attack on Titan: The Last Wings of Mankind - Chain <ACT> (Spike Chunsoft)
19./19. [3DS] Derby Stallion Gold <SLG> (Kadokawa Games)
20./16. [PSV] Phantasy Star Nova <RPG> (Sega)
 
Jul 6, 2012
2,187
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www.japanesenintendo.com
I'm intrigued whether One Piece Super Grand Battle X and Derby Stallion Gold have some price reductions? The former started slow and the latter had dire word of mouth.

And is Final Fantasy Explorers supply retrained at all as the digital version is holding up surprisingly well (although it is significantly cheaper on the eShop)?

Future Card Buddyfight is dated for 16 April btw.
 
Mar 9, 2012
3,567
0
445
Spain
FF Explorers is fully available.

Kenka Bancho 6 might have sold better than the worst predictions, but being above Smash for 3DS (23k this week according to MC) doesn't mean a great succes either.
 
Jan 25, 2012
22,624
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I don't think platforms or release timing are the problem.

I feel they're just fundamentally failing to excite their audience with the content they're making.
The Tales series feels like its fallen into a common trap of sameyness that befalls a lot of established series. Which is a shame since Tales games tend to be different from one another but recent installments have been getting homogenized more and more. I wonder if this has to do with Bamco's just recent flurry of titles not succeeding much at all, and they are simply sticking to "what works" for fear of failure.
Xillia did a lot of things wrong IMO and I'm personally getting tired of Tales games doing the same story over and over, but with a different source of artes involved.
 
Sep 2, 2014
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Xillia did a lot of things wrong IMO and I'm personally getting tired of Tales games doing the same story over and over, but with a different source of artes involved.
Vesperia was the last good one, imo. After that I felt like I was playing the same game with a swap on skins/origins but seemingly the same central idea retread over and over.

Seeing as how it was on X360, Imma blame Xbox. Damn Xbox! *shakes fist*
 
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
0
0
www.wiitalia.it
BD also had five, yes FIVE, different demos on the eshop prior to release, significantly increasing hype and player awareness over many months. The last demo was put on the eshop just 2 days before the game's release. LoL has had ZERO demos. Also note LoL scored well in Famitsu (9/8/9/8), but not as well as BD (10/9/9/10).
Demos do not necessarily have a positive effect on sales. Releasing 5 demos is risky, and might put off potential purchasers (as was stated for PS Nova).

FF Explorers is fully available.

Kenka Bancho 6 might have sold better than the worst predictions, but being above Smash for 3DS (23k this week according to MC) doesn't mean a great succes either.
KB6 might have sold around 20-30k after all.
 
Jan 25, 2012
22,624
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Vesperia was the last good one, imo. After that I felt like I was playing the same game with a swap on skins/origins but seemingly the same central idea retread over and over.

Seeing as how it was on X360, Imma blame Xbox. Damn Xbox! *shakes fist*
The issue you're describing goes back further than Vesperia, but the other issues started with the move to PS3 IMO.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Sep 2, 2011
18,552
3
0
Square needs to push harder the FFXV demo if they want to sell that game.
I agree.

About Tales of: I think they probably wasn't able to match the quality of Vesperia, maybe because there was no "backing" behind the project? Don't know. And they did a mistake in dropping the Radiant series at all.