Media Create Sales: Week 4, 2015 (Jan 19 - Jan 25)

Oct 10, 2007
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Fire Emblem ended with an LTD of 460,568 so it's certainly not impossible. It will need growth, which isn't always a guarantee, but at least it's close.

However, Bravely Default did 295,841 and the re-release (which conceivably sold to some of the same people) did 61,799, so predicting 500K+ seems very optimistic.
For the Sequel was also available as an eShop upgrade for those who had the first game, at a budget price; hence, in my opinion, only a tiny portion of those who bought the game in stores also bought the original one (For the Sequel never had a limited edition or something like that). Also, the Ultimate Hits probably cracked the 20k mark.
 
For the Sequel was also available as an eShop upgrade for those who had the first game, at a budget price; hence, in my opinion, only a tiny portion of those who bought the game in stores also bought the original one (For the Sequel never had a limited edition or something like that). Also, the Ultimate Hits probably cracked the 20k mark.
Even if we assume there's zero overlap and Ultimate Hits sold 20K, that's still a large jump to 500K+ in the Japanese market.
 
Jan 25, 2014
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Bundle with Move at second reprint added more than 100k though. There isn't Move anticipation this time
True, but that still leaves another 100k worth of sales we'd need to get rid of.

By the way, I think a new HSG won't get close to 500k on PS4, I was just pointing out that PSP wasn't the last time it reached that number.
 
Aug 25, 2013
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Fire Emblem ended with an LTD of 460,568 so it's certainly not impossible. It will need growth, which isn't always a guarantee, but at least it's close.

However, Bravely Default did 295,841 and the re-release (which conceivably sold to some of the same people) did 61,799, so predicting 500K+ seems very optimistic.
oh yeah, isn't Fire Emblem coming out this summer in Japan?

then I wait months for localization :(
 
Oct 10, 2007
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This also shows that you might also get out from nowhere and be there; see Disney Magic Castle, Run for Money, Yo-kai Watch.

Anyway, not saying BS will get to 500k for sure (even though I believe it will sell more than BD given how well the game was received and is still popular among gamers), but that overall the game sold way more than 300k over time, probably closer to 400k.
 
Jun 6, 2012
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I think Fire Emblem: IF has a shot of crossing the 500k mark. Following Awakening, I think we'll see more interest in the franchise in general, and on the higher 3DS install base I don't think 500k is unreasonable.
 
This also shows that you might also get out from nowhere and be there; see Disney Magic Castle, Run for Money, Yo-kai Watch.
That's kind of the thing though, no?

They were not franchises prior, so we had no barometer for how they sold before.

Usually when something notably goes up in sales it either had incredibly good legs on the first entry and then got a lot of momentum from that, or made significant changes that appeal to more people.

Like Fire Emblem for example made notable departures from previous entries with the inclusion of things like casual mode and a new art style much more in line with the tastes of the day.

Bravely Second on the other hand looks really similar to the previous game.

Given that leaves legs, could there have been a lot of used game churn on Bravely Default we're not seeing here that suggests there's going to be a much larger fan base for the next one? Sure, but I don't feel we're seeing that telegraphed.

Edit: To note, with legs I usually mean something more like Yokai Watch or Demon's Souls than a more standard "good legs" situation for a core game.
 
May 13, 2014
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Is it the last number we get from Persona 4 golden is 300k?
If a enhanced port doing that number i don't see why an new game in the serie will fail to sold 500k in 2 consoles
 
Jun 6, 2012
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That is... quite a stretch.
A "remaster" of Persona 4 with new content on a much lower userbase sold 300K+, right? I'd expect a new entry on 2 consoles, one of which has a userbase that is likely pretty thirsty for such games, to at least hit 750k in its first few months (and its first holiday). I'd also argue the Persona brand has grown significantly since P4G's release. I don't think, that over a couple of years perhaps with a best release, it's completely unreasonable to say that it could crawl to 1 million LTD if it actually turns out to be a good game.

In Japan rather impossible but WW should be near certain.
I really don't think it's impossible. I think Persona Q, a mishmash of 2 Persona games and EO is a pretty good indicator that Persona is extremely healthy in Japan. Typically a crossover sells less than both the franchises, unless one franchise is a lot stronger than the other. PL v AA sold less than both mainline games because they both sell similar numers wheras Pokemon Conquest sold significantly less than a Pokemon game, but more than a Nobuanga's ambition game because Pokemon is so strong. There's no strict mathematical calculation for how a crossover should sell, but for argument's sake let's a crossover should roughly sell the average of each series less 20%-40%.

I admit this is an argument made on shaky ground, but the fact Persona Q was a strong seller despite not only being a crossover, but also being on a platform that hadn't seen a Persona release prior suggests to me that the Persona series is extremely strong right now.
 

L~A

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Jan 19, 2013
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I'd be surprised if Persona 5 sold 1m.... WW? Definitely. Just in Japan?....

It seems that many people (now targeting specific persons, just something to be noticed) believe that releasing on both PS3 and PS4 automatically means higher sales, even though past launches and the PS3/PSV releases have showed us that in fact, it actually splits the userbase.

Reason there's so many cross-gen releases is because publishers (and Sony, most of all) wants people to switch to the new gen, not because they're expecting an increase in sales/userbase.
 
Aug 7, 2013
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You wouldn't guess like Final Fantasy XV instead?

I mean, FFXV is very likely not releasing in 2015, and the brand is in decay, but if it were.
The brand itself is still much stronger than the Persona brand, and I think they're both equally likely to break that barrier.

The problem that FFXV faces is that it'll only be on PS4 where P5 is releasing on both PS3 and PS4. That's a massive advantage.

Famitsu conducts a poll on what games people are anticipating the most. I would assume that the readership for Famitsu would have dedicated console players. FFXV for PS4 leads and P5 for PS3 is right behind, and P5 for PS4 actually trails behind that version. If dedicated players are looking forward to P5 on PS3, then that makes me think that the sales on PS3 is going to be a pretty big deal.

I usually don't look too much into small sample sizes and polls, but I think having multiple platforms is a pretty big deal in this case.
 
Apr 5, 2006
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I don't think there's evidence to show Persona 4 Golden to be an entirely new audience.
I'd guess the vast majority of buyers were Persona fans already.

I do think sales could grow, but not practically double.
 
Jul 24, 2012
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I don't think there's evidence to show Persona 4 Golden to be an entirely new audience.
I'd guess the vast majority of buyers were Persona fans already.

I do think sales could grow, but not practically double.
You're comparing a Vita remake of a then 4 year old game to a new mainline release on the PS3.
 
May 13, 2014
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I don't think there's evidence to show Persona 4 Golden to be an entirely new audience.
I'd guess the vast majority of buyers were Persona fans already.

I do think sales could grow, but not practically double.
I find dificult to believe that all people who bought the original game bought Golden
 
Apr 5, 2006
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I'm not comparing releases.
I'm just not seeing the franchise to have grown that much.

Besides the original Persona, they've never been that big.
But they've always been relatively consistent.
 
May 13, 2014
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I'm not comparing releases.
I'm just not seeing the franchise to have grown that much.

Besides the original Persona, they've never been that big.
It's pretty rare that a remake sold as much as the original one,i think the remake reach the original because many people didn't buy the original and want to try it know.
 
Apr 5, 2006
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I think a handheld release down the line could sell similarly to the PS3 game, but I just don't see the console game alone doing 500k+.
Given stuff like Miku, it was smart of Atlus to not have a multiplatform handheld release, instead saving a port for later.
 
Sep 13, 2013
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Just wait until Final Fantasy 15 launches on the PS4!!

The sales of the console should sky rocket
No one in this thread said or implied that. What are you talking about?
people were asking how the PS4 is still selling with no big releases.

Then I posted the above comment. Whats with the snarky comment?
I thought your post was going to be based on another one of those sarcastic [insert word that I can NOT remember right now]. Sorry, ignore what I said.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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A "remaster" of Persona 4 with new content on a much lower userbase sold 300K+, right? I'd expect a new entry on 2 consoles, one of which has a userbase that is likely pretty thirsty for such games, to at least hit 750k in its first few months (and its first holiday). I'd also argue the Persona brand has grown significantly since P4G's release. I don't think, that over a couple of years perhaps with a best release, it's completely unreasonable to say that it could crawl to 1 million LTD if it actually turns out to be a good game.
Persona has definitely grown a lot. That's why it is likely to break 500k. The growth is the only reason that would even be possible. 1 million is not. I don't think you realize how hard it is to sell 1 million in Japan today. Especially on consoles. Could Persona 5 sell over a million if we count the future re-releases with extra content over the years? Sure. But that'll be mostly double dipping from a dedicated fanbase. Since the PS3 and PS4 versions are simultaneous and have the same content, the initial release is not going to sell a million.

I'm not comparing releases.
I'm just not seeing the franchise to have grown that much.

Besides the original Persona, they've never been that big.
But they've always been relatively consistent.
Persona 5 definitely has a good chance of doing over 500k. If you're not seeing it, well, then I just think you're bad at seeing these things.
 
Jun 6, 2012
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Persona has definitely grown a lot. That's why it is likely to break 500k. The growth is the only reason that would even be possible. 1 million is not. I don't think you realize how hard it is to sell 1 million in Japan today. Especially on consoles. Could Persona 5 sell over a million if we count the future re-releases with extra content over the years? Sure. But that'll be mostly double dipping from a dedicated fanbase. Since the PS3 and PS4 versions are simultaneous and have the same content, the initial release is not going to sell a million.



Persona 5 definitely has a good chance of doing over 500k. If you're not seeing it, well, then I just think you're bad at seeing these things.
I very much understand how difficult it is to sell 1 million in Japan. I'm often in these threads and know pretty well that to sell a million, even over multiple consoles, is very difficult. Outside of the big Nintendo, Square and Capcom franchises, only Yokai watch and something like Puzzles & Dragons Z can really hit a million.

I'm willing to accept that I'm overshooting the popularity of Persona a bit, but I really think it has become big enough to at least get very close to 1 million. I think it's probably the biggest RPG franchise outside of Square and Pokemon/Yokai (is Yokai an RPG?) at this moment in time. It's really hard to gauge a game that hasn't seen a mainline release in 7 years, but has seen numerous spin offs, animes and merch, but I'm betting that it's a lot stronger than people think.

I think 1 million is possible, and a best case scenario following some budget re-issues, but I'm willing to accept it's unlikely. I am, however, willing to bet it'll hit 750k by the end of it's first holiday season (assuming it's not released in the middle of said holiday season.)
 
Sep 11, 2013
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I'm not comparing releases.
I'm just not seeing the franchise to have grown that much.

Besides the original Persona, they've never been that big.
But they've always been relatively consistent.
Since the release of the original ps2 game and now the franchise has seen a crazy marketing push for the past 3 years or more.

It had 2 anime series, an enchanted port of a ps2 game that sold almost as well as the original, an anime movie (or 2 I don't remember) and a really successful fighting game spin off that no one asked for but performed a lot better than established 2d fighting game franchises. Also atlus saw enough market or interest in the franchise to try to release a dancing game as well.

A new mainland game should have the potential to sell over 500k After all exposure the franchise had the past years.
 
Jul 24, 2012
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A new mainland game should have the potential to sell over 500k After all exposure the franchise had the past years.
Yeah. Since the release of Persona 4:
  • Persona 1 PSP remake
  • Persona 2 Duology PSP remake
  • Persona 3 PSP remake
  • Persona 4 Vita remake
  • Two Persona 4 anime series
  • Two Persona 3 anime movies (third coming out in April; five in total)
  • 2 Successful fighting game spin-offs
  • Successful Persona Q spin-off
  • 4 concerts
  • Stage shows, Pachinko machines, a Persona dedicated talk show, an Escape game, etc.
That all happened, and there wasn't even another mainline release. It's kind of hilarious to think someone could look at all that and think the audience for Persona hasn't expanded, especially when P Studio have said as much, and that that has been their goal with various projects they've started.
 
Persona 5 definitely has a good chance of doing over 500k. If you're not seeing it, well, then I just think you're bad at seeing these things.
Persona I think is one of those series that actually has shown the kind of legs that suggest notable future growth.

Similarly the spin-off products perform unusually well for what they are, again suggesting notable strength building in the core brand.

It's not one of those "50-60% of the copies sold were after Week 1" type of scenarios, but a situation where we see re-releases selling very significant amounts of units, a significant upswing in multimedia, a market that can sustain spin-offs and even have the brand lift the spin-offs, and even less tangible things like the simple awareness caused by all of this activity.

The brand itself is still much stronger than the Persona brand, and I think they're both equally likely to break that barrier.

The problem that FFXV faces is that it'll only be on PS4 where P5 is releasing on both PS3 and PS4. That's a massive advantage.

Famitsu conducts a poll on what games people are anticipating the most. I would assume that the readership for Famitsu would have dedicated console players. FFXV for PS4 leads and P5 for PS3 is right behind, and P5 for PS4 actually trails behind that version. If dedicated players are looking forward to P5 on PS3, then that makes me think that the sales on PS3 is going to be a pretty big deal.

I usually don't look too much into small sample sizes and polls, but I think having multiple platforms is a pretty big deal in this case.
I guess my feeling is just that even without the PS3, at least Final Fantasy XV has tremendous publisher backing from a strong vendor, and is one of the very last "event games" left on consoles anymore.

Persona, while a brand in clear upswing, still needs to face a market where it's coming in as a more niche, grass roots type of product in a greatly reduced market and can't use its legacy to try and bring in as many customers and eyeballs as possible in the same way Final Fantasy can.
 
Apr 8, 2010
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Metal Gear Solid V
Dragon Quest Heroes
Puzzle & Dragons Super Mario
Persona 5
Rhythm Heaven 3DS
Yokai Watch 3
Pokemon X2/Y2/Z
Final Fantasy XV
Dragon Quest XI


Is there any other game that you think if released this year, it could sell more than 500k?

I want to finalize the list for 2015 full year predictions.
Might as well put KH3 on the list.
 
Aug 22, 2013
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twitter.com
Metal Gear Solid V
Dragon Quest Heroes
Puzzle & Dragons Super Mario
Persona 5
Rhythm Heaven 3DS
Yokai Watch 3
Pokemon X2/Y2/Z
Final Fantasy XV
Dragon Quest XI

Is there any other game that you think if released this year, it could sell more than 500k?

I want to finalize the list for 2015 full year predictions.
Pirate Warriors 3 has a shot.
 
Jul 28, 2012
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Metal Gear Solid V
Dragon Quest Heroes
Puzzle & Dragons Super Mario
Persona 5
Rhythm Heaven 3DS
Yokai Watch 3
Pokemon X2/Y2/Z
Final Fantasy XV
Dragon Quest XI

Is there any other game that you think if released this year, it could sell more than 500k?

I want to finalize the list for 2015 full year predictions.
DDO will have 500k+ downloads :p

Maybe HSG.

From everything I hear about ToZ, it seems like it'll bomb the upcoming week even more spectacularly.
ToZ did fine. If it has an LTD of 400-450k it will be fine.

Oh yeah I forgot that GT5 only sold better than GT4 if you count the GT 5 prologue. My bad. I guess then that GT7 really has no chance in hell to be relevant again in Japan, which I find interesting since GT lost popularity in America because of the 360 and Forza but it seems that in Japan the audience just evaporated.
GT5: 600k
GT5 + XL = 730k
GT5 Prologue (incl Spec III ) = 534k

Last time I saw GT6 it was 400k+

This franchise has declined significantly but its hardly irrelevant. It will be disappointing if GT7 does not do 500k+

What. Between PS3 and PS4 I could see this being a million seller over it's lifetime.
Lol

I cannot see Persona 5 doing 500k.
Really?

With how much Persona has grown I think it has a reasonably good chance to do 500k+.
 
Apr 5, 2006
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The budget release and reception following actual details will make it clearer, but I'm of the opinion that the audience is still mostly the core, given how everything has remained relatively consistent.
I definitely expect more than Persona 4 or Golden, but around like 400k to 450k.
At this point, I just don't think it'll more than double.
 
May 23, 2013
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Tecmo Koei Q3 Results:

Net Sales: 7.965 Billion yen
Operating Income: 1.565 Billion yen
Net Income: 2.327 Billion yen

Overseas sales from Hyrule Warriors improved bottom line (forex) considerably.

https://www.koeitecmo.co.jp/e/fh/FH_FY143Q.pdf
The CEO wasn't wrong when he said the western sales for HW would be great. All according to keikaku*, it seems.

* keikaku means plan, btw.
Just a random fact but DLC sales for Koei Tecmo games is expected to exceed 1,200m yen in FY2014. No doubt HW has played a part in that.
 
Jun 22, 2012
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Tecmo Koei Q3 Results:

Net Sales: 7.965 Billion yen
Operating Income: 1.565 Billion yen
Net Income: 2.327 Billion yen

Overseas sales from Hyrule Warriors improved bottom line (forex) considerably.

https://www.koeitecmo.co.jp/e/fh/FH_FY143Q.pdf
Dynasty Warriors 8: Empires, Samurai Warriors: Chronicles 3 and Nobunaga's Ambition: Souzou with Power Up Kit did well too.
https://www.koeitecmo.co.jp/php/pdf/news_20150130.pdf
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