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[Doc Holliday]

The thing that annoys me is the silence coming out from Nintendo. It seemed that when the 3DS was struggling Nintendo was announcing shit left and right in addition to the price cuts. We can't even get release dates on "launch Window" games! The Wii U is a lot worse shape yet Nintendo is acting everything is fine.

If I were Nintendo I would have shown Zelda, mario, and Smash teasers by now. All of them playable at e3!

 

[Nirolak]

Frankly, I think Sony showing off FF13 and MGS4 so early (relatively speaking of course) is the only reason PS3 sales in Japan were not worse than they would have been. If you look at PS3's actual release schedule in Japan its first year, it was absolutely dreadful. Hell, it didn't have a single game that outsold NSMB U until a year and a half after it released- but it had huge titles people knew were coming.

Wii U had a few decent launch titles, but it still lacks a single truly high profile title that people and look to and know is coming.

I feel the 3DS executed pretty well on this strategy as well.

They launched with a pretty bad line-up, but they had already made it clear at E3 that basically all of the major third party Japanese publishers were on board in a meaningful way and if you bought the system you would be pleased eventually.

 

[ambientmystic]

Dragon Quest games already all seem to be on Nintendo platforms. Perhaps they already signed a deal like this. Monster Hunter is also present (and decidedly not present elsewhere), so perhaps they signed that deal too.

This is a very, very good point that I often forget when it comes to the DQ franchise.

Since my journey into console gaming proper didn't start until the PSX (being a primarily PC gamer before that), I often think of DQ as a Sony/Enix collaboration until I remember that all of the previous DQs were on Nintendo based consoles.

IX on DS was a homecoming of sorts, and X just sealed the deal. No longer was Sony going to get a DQ game made for their platform ever again after the brilliant VII for the PS1, the V remake and the incomparable VIII for the PS2.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

aside from huge games like GTA, paying for ports is the worst business decision Nintendo could make. Rather than paying out of pocket they can incentivize in numerous other ways.

But that's not working. Speaking more internationally, the Wii U just had a terrible two weeks where the game releases it did have didn't get any real attention because it was drowned out by the chorus of votes of no confidence of almost every newly announced game period. I say almost because it got Duck Tales.

This trickles down to Japan, too. Third parties in Japan are looking to be international. If newly announced games don't get Wii U versions, the message Japanese publishers might get are "Well, they don't think their game is worth the investment for the western audience, so we'll follow that."

Nintendo needed to change the narrative more than they needed to worry about investment precedent.

 

[Road]

The release schedule overall in Japan is so anemic that the no. 20 on Comgnet has only 9pt. I don't even remember the last time it was so low.

Candidates for April prediction:

[PS3;360] Naruto Shippuden Ultimate Ninja Storm 3
[PSP] 7th Dragon 2020 II
[3DS] Tomodachi Collection Shin Seikatsu
[PS3] Dragon's Dogma Dark Arisen
[3DS] Cardfight!! Vanguard Ride to Victory

Anything else that might sell more than 50k?

 

[schuelma]

There's still some games down the pipeline that I don't know have been cancelled.

Smash going to Namco was the big thing that made me think Nintendo was working with third parties.

Gotcha. Yeah, I was sure Namco would be big on board- instead there has been nothing after Tekken and Tanks! Weird, because they had some decent Wii successes.

 

[Nirolak]

But that's not working. Speaking more internationally, the Wii U just had a terrible two weeks where the game releases it did have didn't get any real attention because it was drowned out by the chorus of votes of no confidence of almost every newly announced game period. I say almost because it got Duck Tales.

This trickles down to Japan, too. Third parties in Japan are looking to be international. If newly announced games don't get Wii U versions, the message Japanese publishers might get are "Well, they don't think their game is worth the investment for the western audience, so we'll follow that."

Nintendo needed to change the narrative more than they needed to worry about investment precedent.

To me the most surreal part of all of this is that in the last few months it feels we've gotten notably more Japanese third party announcements for Steam/PC than we have for Wii U.

That could very much be the result of your second paragraph.

 

[schuelma]

I feel the 3DS executed pretty well on this strategy as well.

They launched with a pretty bad line-up, but they had already made it clear at E3 that basically all of the major third party Japanese publishers were on board in a meaningful way and if you bought the system you would be pleased eventually.

Yup. Great point.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Gotcha. Yeah, I was sure Namco would be big on board- instead there has been nothing after Tekken and Tanks! Weird, because they had some decent Wii successes.

I was sure Konami was on board. I thought that was the entire point behind the push behind Mirror of Fate. When I heard a bridge game to Lords of Shadow 2 was being made for 3DS, I sort of just assumed that meant Lords of Shadow 2 on the Wii U.

That one might flabbergast me more than any other. I have to imagine it was cancelled before announcement.

 

[serplux]

The release schedule overall in Japan is so anemic that the no. 20 on Comgnet has only 9pt. I don't even remember the last time it was so low.

Anything else that might sell more than 50k?

Could the Meitantei Conan (Case Closed, 3DS) game do anything? The manga/anime's rather popular.

 

[Mpl90]

I feel the 3DS executed pretty well on this strategy as well.

They launched with a pretty bad line-up, but they had made it clear at E3 that basically all of the major third party Japanese publishers were on board in a meaningful way and if you bought the system you would be pleased eventually.

Yes. That strategy had a big problem in the end though: they showed too many titles not available at launch or not even in the launch window. So, big hoped for the future but not much for the immediate launch / post launch. And many titles announced too soon (Kid Icarus, Animal Crossing, even Luigi).

With Wii U, they went in the opposite direction: announcements just for the launch / launch period, with basically no long term perspective, with some of them done just too near the launch ( MH3U, Warriors Orochi,...) And that's hurting right now.

They tried two different directions, failing with both at launches. Next time, they need a medium policy between what they did with 3DS's build up and Wii U's: a good amount of announcements for both immediate and not so immediate future.

 

[schuelma]

I was sure Konami was on board. I thought that was the entire point behind the push behind Mirror of Fate. When I heard a bridge game to Lords of Shadow 2 was being made for 3DS, I sort of just assumed that meant Lords of Shadow 2 on the Wii U.

That one might flabbergast me more than any other. I have to imagine it was cancelled before announcement.

Interesting. I personally never really believed LoS2 was Wii U bound and never expected more than scraps from Konami. Of course, right now we don't even have the scraps.

I think going forward Capcom and Tecmo Koei are the best bets for Wii U support.

SE, Konami, and Sega will give nothing.

Namco who knows.

Persona 5 wouldn't shock me because of the Fire Emblem collaboration, but that's probably unlikely.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Sega is weirdly absent.

I question the lack of a Sonic game since Generations but I question the lack of a Wii U Sonic game at launch even harder.

 

[Zero148]

Interesting. I personally never really believed LoS2 was Wii U bound and never expected more than scraps from Konami. Of course, right now we don't even have the scraps.

I think going forward Capcom and Tecmo Koei are the best bets for Wii U support.

SE, Konami, and Sega will give nothing.

Namco who knows.

Persona 5 wouldn't shock me because of the Fire Emblem collaboration, but that's probably unlikely.

isn't Sonic (Racing) selling best on Nintendo consoles? shouldn't at least Sonic games be on WiiU then?

 

[Nirolak]

Interesting. I personally never really believed LoS2 was Wii U bound and never expected more than scraps from Konami. Of course, right now we don't even have the scraps.

I think going forward Capcom and Tecmo Koei are the best bets for Wii U support.

SE, Konami, and Sega will give nothing.

Namco who knows.

Persona 5 wouldn't shock me because of the Fire Emblem collaboration, but that's probably unlikely.

Tecmo Koei is kind of an odd one to me.

They had something at launch, but One Piece Musou (technically also Namco) and Dynasty Warriors 8 aren't on the platform, and Yaiba: Ninja Gaiden Z doesn't seem to be announced for it either unless I missed something.

Capcom at least is still announcing games for the platform even if some of them are digital.

 

[Thorgal]

Frankly, I think Sony showing off FF13 and MGS4 so early (relatively speaking of course) is the only reason PS3 sales in Japan were not worse than they would have been. If you look at PS3's actual release schedule in Japan its first year, it was absolutely dreadful. Hell, it didn't have a single game that outsold NSMB U until a year and a half after it released- but it had huge titles people knew were coming.

Wii U had a few decent launch titles, but it still lacks a single truly high profile title that people and look to and know is coming.

this always seems strange to me

Ps3 even though it seemed like it was DOA we always knew big hitters like MGS4 and FFXIII would be coming eventualy and so it still sold (bad of course but still).

3DS came out pretty poorly at the beginning but everyone knew games like mario kart and co where comming and therefore sustained it sales pre price cut explosion.

Now the wii u is the stranger one here.

We know games like mario , mash bros melee ,zelda ,yoshi
are coming to wii u yet almost nobody seems to care about those .and/or everyone seems to want those games played on 3ds instead

could we argue that the success of the 3ds has made the Wii u in the eyes of the developer and customers irrelevant as as a nintendo device ?

 

[NotLiquid]

Sega is weirdly absent.

I question the lack of a Sonic game since Generations but I question the lack of a Wii U Sonic game at launch even harder.

All-Stars Racing Transformed?

Sonic games always launch at Q4 with a bi-yearly gap. Generations came out a year before the U. They've been most likely working on the next Sonic game since Generations, fans have been awaiting an announcement for quite some time now.

 

[schuelma]

Tecmo Koei is kind of an odd one to me.

They had something at launch, but One Piece Musou (technically also Namco) and Dynasty Warriors 8 aren't on the platform, and Yaiba: Ninja Gaiden Z doesn't seem to be announced for it either unless I missed something.

Capcom at least is still announcing games for the platform even if some of them are digital.

I think One Piece is more Namco, and they did have 4 titles come out in the launch window. DW8 is the one real omission (well, that and a late port of Dead or Alive).

 

[schuelma]

We know games like mario , mash bros melee ,zelda ,yoshi
are coming to wii u yet almost nobody seems to care about those .and/or everyone seems to want those games played on 3ds instead

Well, other than a screen or two of Yoshi and Wind Waker there is nothing concrete to look forward to other than promises from Nintendo that they are coming.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

All-Stars Racing Transformed?

Sonic games always launch at Q4 with a bi-yearly gap. Generations came out a year before the U. They've been most likely working on the next Sonic game since then. Fans have been awaiting an announcement for quite some time now.

Racing sold well but I have to imagine a Sonic title from the Colors team (who put that game out in 2010, giving them two years for a new game even if it was mostly built on the Wii) would have sold quite a bit better.

 

[Road]

Could the Meitantei Conan (Case Closed, 3DS) game do anything? The manga/anime's rather popular.

http://garaph.info/gamesearch.php?titleenglish=&stte=0&titlejapanese=%コナン%

Couple ones that did eventually go over 50k, but in a week or two.

Speaking about Comgnet, what did One Piece Musou 2 PS3 and Miku F PS3 end up with in Comgnet points?

DIVA F - 177pt
OPM2 - 267pt

 

[michaelius]

Sega is weirdly absent.

I question the lack of a Sonic game since Generations but I question the lack of a Wii U Sonic game at launch even harder.

Hmm?

We know there's next Sonic game coming to PS3/PSV/X360/WiiU/3DS.

 

[Soriku]

this always seems strange to me

Ps3 even though it seemed like it was DOA we always knew big hitters like MGS4 and FFXIII would be coming eventualy and so it still sold (bad of course but still).

3DS came out pretty poorly at the beginning but everyone knew games like mario kart and co where comming and therefore sustained it sales pre price cut explosion.

Now the wii u is the stranger one here.

We know games like mario , mash bros melee ,zelda ,yoshi
are coming to wii u yet almost nobody seems to care about those .and/or everyone seems to want those games played on 3ds instead

could we argue that the success of the 3ds has made the Wii u in the eyes of the developer and customers irrelevant as as a nintendo device ?

PS3 came off the PS2, arguably the best console of all time. The Wii U came of the Wii, which is a good console but lacking and not the main platform choice for most gamers.

Still, PS3 went off to a very slow start. Most people won't care for games that aren't already released, so until those Wii U games arrive people won't buy it and have it sit there for months or a year. It's just a waste of money, and there could be a price cut later.

 

[metalslimer]

Racing sold well but I have to imagine a Sonic title from the Colors team (who put that game out in 2010, giving them two years for a new game even if it was mostly built on the Wii) would have sold quite a bit better.

It's Sonic. They dont need to be at launch to sell well. Im sure one will be announced for all platforms soon enough. Its not surprising Sega is being cautious. I do wonder what the two separate teams are doing

 

[Nirolak]

We know games like mario , mash bros melee ,zelda ,yoshi
are coming to wii u yet almost nobody seems to care about those .and/or everyone seems to want those games played on 3ds instead

could we argue that the success of the 3ds has made the Wii u in the eyes of the developer and customers irrelevant as as a nintendo device ?

Well, other than a screen or two of Yoshi and Wind Waker there is nothing concrete to look forward to other than promises from Nintendo that they are coming.

This is a bit of an aside, but while those definitely are good titles for people who already like Nintendo to look forward to, they also aren't really titles that will sell third parties on supporting the system.

I would say the most on target game for doing that is X (seemingly a multiplayer focused action RPG with hunting elements), but by the time that comes out and proves whether or not it can be a notable seller, I feel most Japanese publishers will have picked their horses for their core games.

That at launch and advertised since 2011 on the other hand could have been an interesting test of whether Nintendo could take a lesser selling and/or new IP and use it to help fuel third party support with similar games to theirs.

 

[Soriku]

I don't know about Japan, but if they position and market it right, X could be a game that brings a lot of attention to the Wii U at least in the West. The trailer has 730k+ views on YouTube.

Won't make the Wii U people's primary console, or change third party outlook, but it's something.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Hmm?

We know there's next Sonic game coming to PS3/PSV/X360/WiiU/3DS.

We know this?

 

[Scum]

I wish Iwata all the best. Hope he has something up his sleeve that will light a spark under the WiiU's abysmal sales thus far.

 

[Graphics Horse]

We know this?

Yes it will be announced in February!

 

[shinra-bansho]

One note on the Game Cube- this might be off, but I'm pretty sure the reason Game Cube looks so good on that graph is it launched earlier and is just now hitting its first holiday spike.

Meh. People have been doing launch aligned comparisons for most of these charts despite the different launch dates making them poor comparisons for a long time. There really isn't any avoiding it - other comparisons have similar flaws, e.g. calendar week alignment, won't actually provide LTDs.

 

[schuelma]

Meh. People have been doing launch aligned comparisons for most of these charts despite the different launch dates making them poor comparisons for a long time.

Cool

 

[pieatorium]

Just something I was thinking on after MGS finally had a proper reveal but what other big or at least decent selling 3rd party home console franchises are likely to get a new announcement in the near future?

We know there is something Final Fantasy at E3 and Dark Souls 2 has been announced but it seems like alot of other franchises hit within the last 18 months to a year. Yakuza, Resident Evil, Tekken, Dynasty Warriors, OP musou, DMC, Dragons Dogma, DOA, DQ (more likely to be 3ds anyway i think) are unlikely to have anything until next year at the earliest.

All I can think of off the top of my head is Street Fighter(or a Capcom fighter at least), Sonic, Tales of and Persona.

What am I missing?

 

[metalslimer]

Just something I was thinking on after MGS finally had a proper reveal but what other big or at least decent selling 3rd party home console franchises are likely to get a new announcement in the near future?

We know there is something Final Fantasy at E3 and Dark Souls 2 has been announced but it seems like alot of other franchises hit within the last 18 months to a year. Yakuza, Resident Evil, Tekken, Dynasty Warriors, OP musou, DMC, Dragons Dogma, DOA, DQ (more likely to be 3ds anyway i think) are unlikely to have anything until next year at the earliest.

All I can think of off the top of my head is Street Fighter(or a Capcom fighter at least), Sonic, Tales of and Persona.

What am I missing?

This the main reason I see the PS4 struggling initially in Japan. Who exactly is going to making exclusive games for it and the strategy of cross gen is not going to do well for a 40k+ yen system

 

[Nekki]

If it was an actual retail release I think it could possibly make a hardware dent. Since its download only and IIRC the toys are only being sold at Pokemon Centers I doubt it will do much of anything.

Pokemon Centers, huh. I.. yeah, that's not gonna get them everywhere. I still think it will make a decent profit, 3DS Rumble sold around 250k, this can easily do at least 80k and if only 10% buy figurines, that should be headed in a good direction.

I think Nintendo's strategy right now, as some have pointed out, is wait it out until they have something properly organized.

New fiscal year, new clean slate and start slowly releasing games. That's probably the best (and likely, the only) scenario right now since they won't drop the price.

In my opinion they have to start reaching out more to third parties. I have no idea what they're doing behind the scenes, but I hope they're out giving good incentives to third parties. It's really the only thing they can do, until at least the platform becomes more viable as the installed base grows.

It's funny, because even Vita gets game annonuncements, even if they're not big hitters and don't sell in big amounts, they're all mostly break-even, slight profit ventures.

The Wii U right now has to carve a niche for itself. So do that in the meanwhile, and when the other consoles launch expand aggressively to not be left behind.

Whatever they do, they have to keep a constant stream of games, and that's also one of the hardest parts of it all.

 

[pieatorium]

This the main reason I see the PS4 struggling initially in Japan. Who exactly is going to making exclusive games for it and the strategy of cross gen is not going to do well for a 40k+ yen system

Yeah I can see it having a slow start, whatever Final Fantasy comes will give a spike but even an announcement at E3 are we really expecting a new one to hit before next year when 13-3 is still upcoming for this year? Personally i think it's unlikely.

Somewhere between slow and awful seems to be the norm for the first 9 - 18 months of new systems in Japan now it seems.

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

Does anyone else think Square Enix almost has to make the next mainline Dragon Quest a multiplatform console game if they want it to be successful globally? It seems like such a large IP for them to keep only on the 3DS and lose out on capitalizing on the western markets. Then again Monster Hunter being a 3DS exclusive doesn't make much sense. Really any 3rd party game being exclusive makes little sense, unless it is a niche game, or game made by a small team.

We should want that really. The more units sold the more games we could get in the future. Put Persona 5 on everything, then hopefully we won't have to wait 5-6 years for Persona 6. -

 

[metalslimer]

Does anyone else think Square Enix almost has to make the next mainline Dragon Quest a multiplatform console game if they want it to be successful globally? It seems like such a large IP for them to keep only on the 3DS and lose out on capitalizing on the western markets. Then again Monster Hunter being a 3DS exclusive doesn't make much sense. Really any 3rd party game being exclusive makes little sense, unless it is a niche game, or game made by a small team.

We should want that really. The more units sold the more games we could get in the future. Put Persona 5 on everything, then hopefully we won't have to wait 5-6 years for Persona 6. -

Er..MH is a 4 million selling series and DQ is at least 3 million. They dont need it to be big globally because most games dont hit those numbers WW. Once again, the cost of porting the game and the fact that sales probably wont be much different is why things stay exclusive and of course deals

 

[Takao]

Long live the king?

http://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/bestsellers/videogames/ref=pd_dp_ts_vg_1

#17

Okay, it's just Amazon. I wonder if it'll chart in the top 20? The PS2's last release :'(

 

[JordanLMiller]

Does anyone else think Square Enix almost has to make the next mainline Dragon Quest a multiplatform console game if they want it to be successful globally? It seems like such a large IP for them to keep only on the 3DS and lose out on capitalizing on the western markets. Then again Monster Hunter being a 3DS exclusive doesn't make much sense. Really any 3rd party game being exclusive makes little sense, unless it is a niche game, or game made by a small team.

We should want that really. The more units sold the more games we could get in the future. Put Persona 5 on everything, then hopefully we won't have to wait 5-6 years for Persona 6. -

I am struggling to find an example of a game I actually enjoy more because it's multiplatform, while I can think of plenty of games that I've loved that are exclusives. Why does everyone want all 3 of the consoles to be so similar? Every one of them has their advantages - features that won't get taken advantage of when development resources get stretched too thin. I struggle to see why as both someone who enjoys games as a hobby and as a creator why you would want to target as many boxes as you can. Unless you're just in it for the cash.

 

[Nekki]

Does anyone else think Square Enix almost has to make the next mainline Dragon Quest a multiplatform console game if they want it to be successful globally? It seems like such a large IP for them to keep only on the 3DS and lose out on capitalizing on the western markets. Then again Monster Hunter being a 3DS exclusive doesn't make much sense. Really any 3rd party game being exclusive makes little sense, unless it is a niche game, or game made by a small team.

We should want that really. The more units sold the more games we could get in the future. Put Persona 5 on everything, then hopefully we won't have to wait 5-6 years for Persona 6. -

MH being exclusive makes a lot of sense. And well, DQ doesn't matter much outside of japan sadly, so.. multiplat would be nice, but it's not necessary. It will likely stay 3DS exclusive this gen. In fact, it may be already in the planning stages.

 

[Takao]

DQX being Nintendo exclusive is dumb, but wada you gonna do.

 

[metalslimer]

MH being exclusive makes a lot of sense. And well, DQ doesn't matter much outside of japan sadly, so.. multiplat would be nice, but it's not necessary. It will likely stay 3DS exclusive this gen. In fact, it may be already in the planning stages.

Planning stages? I'm expecting the game to be out next year. Remember DQX has nothing to do with 11 as X was done internally

DQX being Nintendo exclusive is dumb, but wada you gonna do.

Now this one has moneyhat writte all over it. The fact that X as an MMO has no PC version is quite strange

 

[Soriku]

Does anyone else think Square Enix almost has to make the next mainline Dragon Quest a multiplatform console game if they want it to be successful globally? It seems like such a large IP for them to keep only on the 3DS and lose out on capitalizing on the western markets. Then again Monster Hunter being a 3DS exclusive doesn't make much sense. Really any 3rd party game being exclusive makes little sense, unless it is a niche game, or game made by a small team.

We should want that really. The more units sold the more games we could get in the future. Put Persona 5 on everything, then hopefully we won't have to wait 5-6 years for Persona 6. -

They make MH/DQ primarily for the Japanese market. They could have better sales on other systems in the West, but would that make up for Japanese sales? I don't think multiplat is necessary for every game either.

Also, you really think sales are the reason we don't get new Persona games frequently? Don't you think it has more to do with the PS2 being viable for Atlus for a few years even after the current gen consoles released, and that the uptake for HD development has just been slow for them? There wasn't a big gap between P3 and P4 in Japan. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if Atlus puts P6 on current gen consoles after P5 to reuse/recoup their PS3/360 assets and get a new game out fast too (so we have a shortened gap).

 

[crinale]

DQX being Nintendo exclusive is dumb, but wada you gonna do.

Wada was in his position because he repaired the messed up relationship with Ninty ever since Yamauchi banned Squaresoft from making GB/GBA games.
He sure wouldn't mess with Nintendo while he was the CEO. I'm wondering what the next CEO would do.
(I'm guessing SE will focus more on smartphones from now on).

 

[Nekki]

Planning stages? I'm expecting the game to be out next year. Remember DQX has nothing to do with 11 as X was done internally

Hmm I'm not too familiar with how DQ is handled. I know 9 and... 8? were done by level-5, but they must be overseen by SE.

So the next entry (being 11) can go to anybody who's up for bids?? Then yeah, it may be coming closer than I thought. No earlier than late next year though.

 

[ohlawd]

Platinum Games for DQ11.

 

[Soriku]

3DS is definitely getting DQ XI.

But in my dream world I'd like to see it on the PS4 because I really want to see the cel-shading capabilities of a next-gen console in a JRPG with a large budget. Wii U would be fine too though.

I wonder that if there's no suitable console for DQ next gen that they'll keep mainline DQ games on the 3DS exclusively. Hopefully not though.

 

[Road]

http://www.m-create.com/ranking/

LM2 sell-through 84.79%

Also massive difference on LM1 LTD: 604k (Famitsu has it ~350k)

Edit: I just remembered this from when I was searching for old data. Luigi's Mansion first week:

Media Create: 230,132
Dengeki: 133,677
Famitsu: 116,784

 

[Scum]

http://www.m-create.com/ranking/

LM2 sell-through 84.79%

Also massive difference on LM1 LTD: 604k (Famitsu has it ~350k)

Excellent! I look forward to Super Mario Luigi Universe.

 

[donny2112]

Also massive difference on LM1 LTD: 604k (Famitsu has it ~350k)

Was just coming here to ask if I was misreading that as it was so far out from what was known before. :lol