Media Create Sales: Week 14, 2014 (Mar 31 - Apr 06)

Parakeetman

No one wants a throne you've been sitting on!
Feb 22, 2012
23,672
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A little too soon to announce a sequel, but they need to start building some hype for a late 2014 release, so it's understandable.

GO HINO!
Little too soon? The game has been out for a while now. Its only gained popularity recently due to the show finally being on TV. Came out July, last year.
 
Ouch.

If Japan goes down, would this have an effect on other territories?
Well, I guess it depends what you mean by this.

Obviously Japan can no longer sufficiently support a home console on its own, so if a home console only had support from Japan, it wouldn't be feasible to release.

If Japanese support were to significantly decrease on handhelds even more than it already has, that would put a lot of strain on the device. For example, the Vita not getting sufficient software support has left it as an almost universally dead system, and it's unlikely Sony will follow it up, especially with something notably resembling a traditional gaming handheld.

The 3DS however is selling primarily on Nintendo's first party in the West. It's not really doing super amazing by any means, but you could probably still run the business like that. It would result in a major drop in Japan though which is currently the source of a lot of Nintendo's 3DS revenue, and given it's the local market, it's also higher margin.

Basically I would see this kind of scenario resulting in a lot of traditional Japanese games disappearing in favor of mobile, browser, f2p, etc and Nintendo's revenue/profit lines continuing to decrease. As for consoles, things are already catatonic to the point of irrelevance so I'm not sure that would really change anything.
 
Jun 6, 2012
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PS3 will be over 100 million worldwide when all's said and done.
That's really extremely optimistic given how it's sales seem to have plumetted since the PS4 launch in Europe and the US. If they CAN make the cell smaller and make manufacturing cheaper then maybe they'll hit 100? I'd say it would be lucky to hit 90 million though at the pace it's going now.

It's also fairly irrelevent to what he asked. The PS3 will almost certainly hit 10 million in JP before it's over.

I'd think 11 million isn't unsafe, but not much more.
11 million isn't unsafe? No 11 million is pretty nuts... The PS3 sold 824,000 last year and will be down to probably around 500,000-600,000 this year and then should be waaaaaaaaaaay down next year. That in mind, even on the more generous tracker (if we assume it hits 600k this year), it'll be at 10.3 million. It's not getting another 700,000.
 
Aug 24, 2011
6,928
0
500
Finland
That's really extremely optimistic given how it's sales seem to have plumetted since the PS4 launch in Europe and the US. If they CAN make the cell smaller and make manufacturing cheaper then maybe they'll hit 100? I'd say it would be lucky to hit 90 million though at the pace it's going now.
Well if they can get the price down it could have still rather long life in developing markets. When PS2 was already pretty much dead in traditional markets its was still shipping quite nice amount of consoles per quarter solely by the strenght of developing world. Sony has one advantage over Nintendo and MS and it's their supply network as a global electronics giant.
 
May 23, 2013
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twitter.com
That's really extremely optimistic given how it's sales seem to have plumetted since the PS4 launch in Europe and the US. If they CAN make the cell smaller and make manufacturing cheaper then maybe they'll hit 100? I'd say it would be lucky to hit 90 million though at the pace it's going now.

It's also fairly irrelevent to what he asked. The PS3 will almost certainly hit 10 million in JP before it's over. 11 million isn't unsafe? No 11 million is pretty nuts...
I agree. 90 million is optimistic but I think it can do it. Hitting 100m is out of the question tbh. But getting over 90m isn't too much of a task.

11m for LT in Japan isn't out of the question though. Esp if PS3 is still selling 2/3 years from now.
 
Jun 6, 2012
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Well if they can get the price down it could have still rather long life in developing markets. When PS2 was already pretty much dead in traditional markets its was still shipping quite nice amount of consoles per quarter solely by the strenght of developing world. Sony has one advantage over Nintendo and MS and it's their supply network as a global electronics giant.
I have thought about this, but I'm honestly not sure how much developing markets are going to propel the PS3. The PS2 was the market leader and significantly cheaper at this point in it's lifetime. There are now also other alternatives, like PC and smartphones that are more available. It's possible, but I have my doubts that the PS3 can be even half as popular in developing markets this time around. We'll see what happens and it'll be great if sony does manage to climb to 100 mil, but I find it hard to believe.
 
May 31, 2013
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That's really extremely optimistic given how it's sales seem to have plumetted since the PS4 launch in Europe and the US. If they CAN make the cell smaller and make manufacturing cheaper then maybe they'll hit 100? I'd say it would be lucky to hit 90 million though at the pace it's going now.
Not that it's really relevant to a media creates thread but I am curious if Sony might have a new PS3 slim in the works for reveal this E3.

The PS Now servers basically comprise 8 PS3's hardware into one server rack and some of the linked in profiles suggest Sony recently shrunk cell's size. I think it's not entirely unlikely that a newer slimmer, cheaper PS3 is on the horizon

That being said I think the PS3 will hit 90M WW, but even assuming the new SKU is real, I'm not sure on 100M WW, we'll see though.
 
Aug 24, 2011
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Finland
I have thought about this, but I'm honestly not sure how much developing markets are going to propel the PS3. The PS2 was the market leader and significantly cheaper at this point in it's lifetime. There are now also other alternatives, like PC and smartphones that are more available. It's possible, but I have my doubts that the PS3 can be even half as popular in developing markets this time around. We'll see what happens and it'll be great if sony does manage to climb to 100 mil, but I find it hard to believe.
Well yeah definitely the situation is little different to last time and I too personally think that 100 million is quite stretch. We shall see though like you said.
 
Oct 3, 2012
20,160
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United Kingdom
That's really extremely optimistic given how it's sales seem to have plumetted since the PS4 launch in Europe and the US. If they CAN make the cell smaller and make manufacturing cheaper then maybe they'll hit 100? I'd say it would be lucky to hit 90 million though at the pace it's going now.

It's also fairly irrelevent to what he asked. The PS3 will almost certainly hit 10 million in JP before it's over.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=535647
 
Aug 19, 2006
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That's really extremely optimistic given how it's sales seem to have plumetted since the PS4 launch in Europe and the US. If they CAN make the cell smaller and make manufacturing cheaper then maybe they'll hit 100? I'd say it would be lucky to hit 90 million though at the pace it's going now.

It's also fairly irrelevent to what he asked. The PS3 will almost certainly hit 10 million in JP before it's over.



11 million isn't unsafe? No 11 million is pretty nuts... The PS3 sold 824,000 last year and will be down to probably around 500,000-600,000 this year and then should be waaaaaaaaaaay down next year. That in mind, even on the more generous tracker (if we assume it hits 600k this year), it'll be at 10.3 million. It's not getting another 700,000.
We'll see, 600k would be 10k average for the rest of the year.
 
Aug 10, 2012
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Their line-up doesn't have any strong exclusive franchises that appeal to large segments of the Western market either. And yet, it's outperforming most historic launches.
In the west people mostly buy multiplats. Here in Gaf we talk about exclusives all time (Titanfall, Infamous etc) but in reality exclusives actually make a very small part of overall software sales. Here a slide from a Ubisoft financial report showing best selling franchises at retail (NA and EU) last gen:



We know from Creamsugar leaks that the best PS4/X1 sellers in the US are multiplats too. In Japan the best sellers are almost all exclusives.
 
Aug 25, 2013
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Thanks.

New fiscal year, new rules.

- no more top 3 for PSP, Wii and DS.
- no more software sales for Wii and DS.
- no more hardware sales for Wii and Vita TV; 3DS is now combined.

=\

Dengeki signing the death certificate of DS, Wii and Vita TV. They are also trying to kill Wii U and PS4 faster than anyone else:

HARDWARE
Code:
-------------------------------------------
| SYSTEM | THIS WEEK | LAST WEEK | CHANGE |
-------------------------------------------
| 3DS+   |    30,398 |    54,242 |   -44% |
| PSV    |    18,870 |    40,064 |   -53% |
| PS4    |    11,609 |    21,285 |   -45% |
| PS3    |    10,061 |    16,713 |   -40% |
| WIU    |     6,982 |    12,164 |   -43% |
| PSP    |     2,597 |     4,130 |   -37% |
| 360    |       251 |       359 |   -30% |
-------------------------------------------
| ALL    |    80,768 |   150,814 |   -46% |
-------------------------------------------
Not sure if they're including Vita TV sales with PSV. I don't think so. It seems too low.
why are Dengeki numbers lower all around
also PS4 is definitely plunging under 10k next week in this tracker
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
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I forgot to post this week's "PS4 crush and burn dreams" edition.

PS3 first 15 weeks

01. 81.639 / 81.639
02. 42.099 / 123.738
03. 32.662 / 156.400
04. 31.436 / 187.836
05. 50.171 / 238.007
06. 70.942 / 308.949
07. 76.882 / 385.831
08. 71.727 / 457.558
09. 69.944 / 527.501
10. 25.531 / 553.032
11. 21.105 / 574.137
12. 19.996 / 594.133
13. 18.727 / 612.860
14. 23.431 / 636.291
15. 20.676 / 656.967


PS4 first 7 weeks

01. 309.154 / 309.154
02. 65.685 / 374.839
03. 35.294 / 410.133
04. 29.677 / 439.810
05. 30.201 / 470.011
06. 23.327 / 493.338
07. 13.401 / 506.739

When I started the comparison I was thinking something close to 15 weeks for steams to cross but PS4 collapsed much quicker than that.
 
Jul 28, 2012
26,651
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0
I forgot to post this week's "PS4 crush and burn dreams" edition.

PS3 first 15 weeks

01. 81.639 / 81.639
02. 42.099 / 123.738
03. 32.662 / 156.400
04. 31.436 / 187.836
05. 50.171 / 238.007
06. 70.942 / 308.949
07. 76.882 / 385.831
08. 71.727 / 457.558
09. 69.944 / 527.501
10. 25.531 / 553.032
11. 21.105 / 574.137
12. 19.996 / 594.133
13. 18.727 / 612.860
14. 23.431 / 636.291
15. 20.676 / 656.967


PS4 first 7 weeks

01. 309.154 / 309.154
02. 65.685 / 374.839
03. 35.294 / 410.133
04. 29.677 / 439.810
05. 30.201 / 470.011
06. 23.327 / 493.338
07. 13.401 / 506.739

When I started the comparison I was thinking something close to 15 weeks for steams to cross but PS4 collapsed much quicker than that.
What week do you think they will cross?
 

Parakeetman

No one wants a throne you've been sitting on!
Feb 22, 2012
23,672
0
0
Its obviously not really going to go anywhere for a while with the current line up. And its not like anything big has been announced here lately which would drive sales at the moment. So there really is nothing to see for a while. People really should not be surprised that it does not seem to be going anywhere currently.
 
Jul 17, 2006
11,517
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Denver, CO
The question is if they want or need home console presence at all. A lot of the PS3 games that were steady flowing games that helped PS3 along its way in Japan, got most of their sales (or at least a huge chunk of them in Japan.) The series that appealed to the west too will get the PS4 some sort of recognition (Resi Evil, MGS, FF, KH), but they're essentially viable because western PS4 sales are healthy enough.

All the "mid tier" devs are, as of right now, split between 4 platforms that are much more viable to develop for due to lower costs and higher install base (3DS, Vita, Phones, PS3.) The question is, will the big names of MGS, RE, FF attract these mid-tier devs to PS4? The PS3 was in a very different ecosystem in Japan where alternatives were sparse, but now that handhelds are much more capable and phones are more viable, I really don't think it's a given they'll just jump over. Some of them will, and I think a lot of them very will could, but again it's not something I'd put money on.



Fair enough. I just assumed your "it's over" was in reference to the Wii U vs. PS4 part of quote. Sorry about that.
It's possible you maybe right, but I feel like if people were fine with only handhelds and phones, PS3 wouldn't still be such a presence on the software sales charts.

Make fun of "no competition" on that chalkboard all you want, but that's the best bet for the PS4. The PS3 can't last forever. If the PS3 falls off the software chart without either the Wii U or the PS4 taking its place, that's when I'll completely give up on japanese console sales.
 
Jul 28, 2012
26,651
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0
Its obviously not really going to go anywhere for a while with the current line up. And its not like anything big has been announced here lately which would drive sales at the moment. So there really is nothing to see for a while. People really should not be surprised that it does not seem to be going anywhere currently.
Yeah this is how I see things for now.
 
Jul 29, 2010
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So out of curiosity, since it looks like a lot of Japanese developers are staying on PS3 for the short term, where do you think they migrate to after that and when? If let's say the Wii U version of One Piece: Unlimited World Red starts selling better than the usual Wii U cross-plats (it is the first title after Mario Kart 8 on the Wii U in Japan), you think the Wii U might get a couple more titles thrown its way, kind of like how the Vita has? I think if the Wii U continues to sell as it does, eventually things like MGS5 and FF15 may get the PS4 rolling and developers may slowly move there, but in the meantime, you think they'll just happily sit on the PS3 for even longer and develop for nothing else?
 
Japanese developers will remain on PS3 as much as they can. Active install base is many times the sum of Wii U and PS4, development for PS3 is mastered by both large and small companies, and costs are lower.

Apart from developers looking into the western market as their main market, or bound by deals enforced by hardware manufacturers, there is no reason for a Japanese studio to develop for either Wii U or PS4. Sales have been abysmal for 3rd parties on Wii U and PS4 install base is negligible right now.
 
Nov 4, 2012
15,052
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0
on a related note holy goddamn shit i didn't know this was the ps4's release schedule in japan through june:

april 14: final fantasy xiv
may 22: infamous second son
may 27: watch_dogs
june 05: wolfenstein the new order
june 12: thief
june 26: musuo orochi 2 ultimate

and it's bookended by the only two games that have a whisper of a chance of increasing hardware sales by at least a couple thousand the weeks they release.
I think a whisper of a chance is generous for that one.
 
Dec 5, 2012
20,948
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Toronto
Its obviously not really going to go anywhere for a while with the current line up. And its not like anything big has been announced here lately which would drive sales at the moment. So there really is nothing to see for a while. People really should not be surprised that it does not seem to be going anywhere currently.
That's definitely the reason, but it shouldn't be an excuse for bad sales.
 
Oct 21, 2007
3,202
0
0
Deutschland
I forgot to post this week's "PS4 crush and burn dreams" edition.

PS3 first 15 weeks

01. 81.639 / 81.639
02. 42.099 / 123.738
03. 32.662 / 156.400
04. 31.436 / 187.836
05. 50.171 / 238.007
06. 70.942 / 308.949
07. 76.882 / 385.831
08. 71.727 / 457.558
09. 69.944 / 527.501
10. 25.531 / 553.032
11. 21.105 / 574.137
12. 19.996 / 594.133
13. 18.727 / 612.860
14. 23.431 / 636.291
15. 20.676 / 656.967


PS4 first 7 weeks

01. 309.154 / 309.154
02. 65.685 / 374.839
03. 35.294 / 410.133
04. 29.677 / 439.810
05. 30.201 / 470.011
06. 23.327 / 493.338
07. 13.401 / 506.739

When I started the comparison I was thinking something close to 15 weeks for steams to cross but PS4 collapsed much quicker than that.
PS3 will be doing 70k for each of Week 8 and 9, while PS4 will be doing 10k or so. The numbers will be really close by Week 10.
 
Nov 13, 2011
16,595
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0
In the west people mostly buy multiplats. Here in Gaf we talk about exclusives all time (Titanfall, Infamous etc) but in reality exclusives actually make a very small part of overall software sales. Here a slide from a Ubisoft financial report showing best selling franchises at retail (NA and EU) last gen:

We know from Creamsugar leaks that the best PS4/X1 sellers in the US are multiplats too. In Japan the best sellers are almost all exclusives.
I'm aware of what the best sellers are, I've made note of the same point: that too much value is placed on exclusives in these discussions.

However, it's still a point worth noting in the sales performance disparity - in Western markets people simply seem more willing to pay the price of entry of a new system to play games they could get on systems they already own because of the visual and performance delta that the new systems offer over the old. I think it's reasonable to contend that the Japanese market differs from the US market in this regard.
 
Jun 7, 2004
74,677
2
1,405
I'm aware of what the best sellers are, I've made note of the same point: that too much value is placed on exclusives in these discussions.

However, it's still a point worth noting in the sales performance disparity - in Western markets people simply seem more willing to pay the price of entry of a new system to play games they could get on systems they already own because of the visual and performance delta that the new systems offer over the old. I think it's reasonable to contend that the Japanese market differs from the US market in this regard.
western gamers are also getting console games that appeal to them a lot quicker and with more regularity.
 
Nov 13, 2011
16,595
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0
western gamers are also getting console games that appeal to them a lot quicker and with more regularity.
Of course, and of course if there were more titles releasing from both Sony and third parties more tailored to the Japanese market that would presumably improve the fortunes of the PS4.

But I'm still opining that even if there were more titles releasing, and as with Western titles they were largely cross-generational, the impetus for transition still wouldn't be as strong. I simply think the threshold of "good enough" when it comes to visual spectacle is lower.
 

Parakeetman

No one wants a throne you've been sitting on!
Feb 22, 2012
23,672
0
0
That's definitely the reason, but it shouldn't be an excuse for bad sales.
Why not? Its the exact reason why shit isnt selling. Not that hard to understand. People wont buy something that does not have anything they are interested in playing now or later down the road.

No amount of marketing is going to change the fact that the table set out for current upcoming releases is pretty bare and generally folks here dont give two shits about Western games either for the most part so its not like the Japanese release of Infamous SS is going to be a huge help for example.
 
Jan 16, 2014
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Of course, and of course if there were more titles releasing from both Sony and third parties more tailored to the Japanese market that would presumably improve the fortunes of the PS4.

But I'm still opining that even if there were more titles releasing, and as with Western titles they were largely cross-generational, the impetus for transition still wouldn't be as strong. I simply think the threshold of "good enough" when it comes to visual spectacle is lower.
I think the disparity can also be explained by Sony's PR and Marketing, the hype surrounding their e3 conference may have not been as well recieved as it was in the west
 
Jul 28, 2012
26,651
0
0
So out of curiosity, since it looks like a lot of Japanese developers are staying on PS3 for the short term, where do you think they migrate to after that and when? If let's say the Wii U version of One Piece: Unlimited World Red starts selling better than the usual Wii U cross-plats (it is the first title after Mario Kart 8 on the Wii U in Japan), you think the Wii U might get a couple more titles thrown its way, kind of like how the Vita has? I think if the Wii U continues to sell as it does, eventually things like MGS5 and FF15 may get the PS4 rolling and developers may slowly move there, but in the meantime, you think they'll just happily sit on the PS3 for even longer and develop for nothing else?
JP devs are obviously going to move to PS4 with the big franchises. Definitely not going to WiiU. It selling horribly WW and has poor history with such franchises. I really see no reason for third parties to go to WiiU unless Nintendo pays for it.

That's definitely the reason, but it shouldn't be an excuse for bad sales.
Umm but its THE reason PS4 isn't selling well. You can't surely expect people to buy a system when its has very few games coming out. Its just like the WiiU in that case. However the only difference, which makes the PS4's future much brighter than the WiiU's, is that its a matter of when are third parties going to come not are they coming.
 
Feb 15, 2014
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Ugly Week.

Well if nothing else, at least this proves that all the talk of the PS4 being the savior of consoles in Japan was faulty at best. I usually don't like it when most systems suffer, but I'm not entirely above gloating about being right.

Also, its a strange world indeed where the Vita is looking more like the 3DS in sales figures and vice versa. Still shitty for both of them.

Also, lets drop the "well the Wii U sucked cause they had awesome games and still bombed!" revisionist bullshit. I could not go a day last year without hearing how the Wii U was dead because there was literally nothing on the system worth playing.
 
Apr 26, 2013
9,001
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bit OT but does importing a japanese ps4 to europe come with disadvantages outside the need to buy a new powercord? im sitting in akihabara right now and the availability and price is just too tempting.
Also, lets drop the "well the Wii U sucked cause they had awesome games and still bombed!" revisionist bullshit. I could not go a day last year without hearing how the Wii U was dead because there was literally nothing on the system worth playing.
first half was pretty bad but second half was really good imho..
In the west people mostly buy multiplats. Here in Gaf we talk about exclusives all time (Titanfall, Infamous etc) but in reality exclusives actually make a very small part of overall software sales. Here a slide from a Ubisoft financial report showing best selling franchises at retail (NA and EU) last gen:



We know from Creamsugar leaks that the best PS4/X1 sellers in the US are multiplats too. In Japan the best sellers are almost all exclusives.
that chart doesnt seem entirely right
 
Oct 4, 2009
12,563
7
710
Japanese developers will remain on PS3 as much as they can. Active install base is many times the sum of Wii U and PS4, development for PS3 is mastered by both large and small companies, and costs are lower.
Not only that but many japanese developer are fine enough with the graphical fidelity the PS3 can muster.
The bigger japanese developers that can push graphics (like Kojima production) have IPs which success depend heavily on the american and european market, not Japan.

I expect that traits like a minor number of retail titles and more cross-gen games compared to what happened last gen to be even more severe in Japan.
 
Mar 25, 2005
35,145
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Canada
Its a value, not a unit chart - seems perfectly reasonable to me.
I would imagine that it doesn't include handhelds either based on the position of Mario Kart. Goes without saying that pack-ins aren't included, explaining Wii Sports.

Even then, I'd like to see how they calculated some of the totals. Elder scrolls seems sort of low, given that Skyrim moved 20M copies, and Oblivion is somewhere over 5M. Even with all of the releases, I have a hard time believing that WWE did better than that.