Media Create Sales: Week 16, 2014 (Apr 14 - Apr 20)

Yea, it is. I don't think a handheld should be above $170 and launching at $150 would be the best possible price.

I got my XL at $150 and a Vita for $99 (used, could have gotten a new one for $130). I hope both Nintendo and Sony learned their lesson this gen for their possible future handhelds.
The problem is not the price per se. PSP, for example, launched at $250. But it offered a lot of media capabilities that were not available in other formats. 3DS and Vita, however, do not offer anything besides exclusive software and games, so their value is much lower.
 

Soriku

Junior Member
Aug 22, 2012
15,519
0
455
It is so cute seeing you guys fighting over DQXI for lesser consoles, aka handhelds, when in reality the game is in development for PS4/WiiU.
Would you like to make a bet?

If the game is exactly on PS4/Wii U (both as you claim, not just one or the other), you win. Otherwise, I win. If you want me to claim a platform, I think it'll be on 3DS.

1 month avatar bet.
 
Dec 5, 2012
20,948
0
0
Toronto
The problem is not the price per se. PSP, for example, launched at $250. But it offered a lot of media capabilities that were not available in other formats. 3DS and Vita, however, do not offer anything besides exclusive software and games, so their value is much lower.
Well the PSP was pretty much a first for its time. It played good retail games, was a multimedia player (music and video), and a web browser. It also had a nice big display compared to other devices. Those were actually selling points for the PSP. So $250 was an amazing price.

There really was no other device like it at that time, but now those are just common features found nearly in all portable electronic devices.

Though I guess I'm kinda repeating what you said lol. Basically, I'm saying there really is no feature that handhelds will have to warrant a high price.
 
Mar 3, 2010
17,373
0
0
Do you really not get that the market attractiveness of a single region market that in total is valued at ~$5B (2012) and shrinking, including all platforms software and hardware, with a strong, growing impact of substitute products is poor. And that the opportunity cost of investing into competing solely for that relatively low margin market isn't an efficient use of resources?

Do you not get that breakeven or marginal ROI is not the intent of investing resources?
Do you really not get that you don´t get your competitor 100% of the portal, and by default, the absolute majority of the market? Do you not get that even though the hardware lose money, if the ecosystem is profitable than the project is profitable? Do you really not get that not releasing a new system will have effect on their relation with Japanese devs and publishers? The cost opportunity can and does get recouped by third party licensing, and the rest of the ecosystem. It has always been like this for Sony, are you new here?

Do you not get that not investing money, they lose the whole market?

Hey but Nintendo can't have that market! And handheld gaming is the gateway to Japan which is the gateway to....er...
No, Nintendo should get the whole market and games because er....
 
Jan 11, 2012
16,582
3
0
Do you really not get that you don´t get your competitor 100% of the portal, and by default, the absolute majority of the market? Do you not get that even though the hardware lose money, if the ecosystem is profitable than the project is profitable? Do you really not get that not releasing a new system will have effect on their relation with Japanese devs and publishers? The cost opportunity can and does get recouped by third party licensing, and the rest of the ecosystem. It has always been like this for Sony, are you new here?

Do you not get that not investing money, they lose the whole market?
Profit isn't the only thing. Opportunity cost has to be taken into account. And for Sony, I think there are far more profitable ways to invest money. And by judging with their handling of Vita, they think the same.
 
Nov 13, 2011
16,595
0
0
Do you really not get that you don´t get your competitor 100% of the portal, and by default, the absolute majority of the market? Do you not get that even though the hardware lose money, if the ecosystem is profitable than the project is profitable? Do you really not get that not releasing a new system will have effect on their relation with Japanese devs and publishers? The cost opportunity can and does get recouped by third party licensing, and the rest of the ecosystem. It has always been like this for Sony, are you new here?

Do you not get that not investing money, they lose the whole market?
No, Nintendo should get the whole market and games because er....
Sony's whole business model in gaming is built on Gilette's razor and blade, I'm well aware that the margins come from software.

A profit margin does not amount to an overall return on investment. The PS3 is currently profitable. As an overall venture it will have a negative return. The PSV may be generating net income, there's nothing to actually suggest this, but as a venture it will have a negative return as it wasn't borne out of the ether. The project was meant to breakeven year three, iirc, based on much higher projections of sales.

Exiting handhelds will have no impact on relations with Japanese publishers, whose relevance has diminished anyway, as those who aren't eying Western markets are eying mobile. Because everyone sees where the wind is blowing.

By not investing, they have capital to invest in better projects. Nintendo can have the whole market, because strategically it is not important.
 
Mar 3, 2010
17,373
0
0
Sony's whole business model is built on Gilette's razor and blade, I'm well aware that the margins come from software.

A profit margin does not amount to an overall return on investment. The PS3 is currently profitable. As an overall venture it will have a negative return. The PSV may be generating net income, there's nothing to actually suggest this, but as a venture it will have a negative return as it wasn't borne out of the ether.

Exiting handhelds will have no impact on relations with Japanese publishers, whose relevance has diminished anyway, as those who aren't eying Western markets are eying mobile. Because everyone sees where the wind is blowing.

By not investing, they have capital to invest in better projects. Nintendo can have the whole market, because strategically it is not important.
You don´t know if the Vita is profitable or not. You don´t know if the whole Vita project will be/or already profitable or not. Throwing these kind of statements without figures to back them up, and make a call about the future of the project is very silly. The matter of the fact is that 48% of software on the Vita is purchased through PSN, and nets higher margin on software, not to mention the ridiculously expensive memory cards.

How do you know that the project that they invest in instead of next handheld would be better, or more profitable? You are just projecting without any data, and just doing guess work. The Japanese market is very important for Japanese publishers which reflects on what to localize to the west since a big chunk of said software is sold in Japan.
 
Nov 13, 2011
16,595
0
0
You don´t know if the Vita is profitable or not. You don´t know if the whole Vita project will be/or already profitable or not. Throwing these kind of statements without figures to back them up, and make a call about the future of the project is very silly. The matter of the fact is that 48% of software on the Vita is purchased through PSN, and nets higher margin on software, not to mention the ridiculously expensive memory cards.

How do you know that the project that they invest in instead of next handheld would be better, or more profitable? You are just projecting without any data, and just doing guess work. The Japanese market is very important for Japanese publishers which reflects on what to localize to the west since a big chunk of said software is sold in Japan.
I didn't say whether it was profitable or not, I said the Vita may be currently profitable. You have no idea the composition of that software, whether it's units, whether it's revenue, and as a percentage it has no meaning without some form of reference. 48% of a small number is an even smaller number. So your statements earlier in the thread about how the Japanese handheld market is some sort of cash cow utopia and your current critiques seem somewhat ironic.

Hirai stated in interviews that they expected Vita to have a breakeven time of 3 years based on much more optimistic projections, twice of thrice current sales from memory. It hasn't been 3 years and sales have been atrocious.

They've just released a product that will be a more profitable venture than the Vita, it's called the PS4. There are opportunities outside gaming to pursue in much more lucrative medical imaging. The cash flow necessary may be better served in reducing liabilities.

The Japanese market at it's peak was worth ~$5-7B yen annually including all hardware and software at the height of the NDS and Wii era. It now stands at less than half that. There's plenty of data on how much it has shrunk and how much mobile has grown. There's plenty of data indicating it will continue to shrink.

Your whole argument seems premised on some emotional reasoning that Nintendo shouldn't be the only one eating the shrinking Japanese handheld pie, when again, ceding that market does not matter from a holistic standpoint in terms of Sony's wider business.
 

heidern

Junior Member
Jun 7, 2004
2,288
0
0
You don´t know if the Vita is profitable or not. You don´t know if the whole Vita project will be/or already profitable or not.
There's a good chance the project as a whole will make a loss. Handhelds have lower tie-ratios than consoles and Sony rely more on third parties so their software revenue is more limited than if they had higher first party sales. There's a lot of fixed costs in terms of R&D, manufacturing and all the marketing costs to cover.

I get what you're saying about not wanting to give up the entire market to Nintendo. Japanese games like Final Fantasy and Tekken have been important to giving Sony the diversity in game library. If Japanese publishers start putting more projects like Fatal Frame out for Nintendo because they don't have a viable alternative then some of that could filter through to global impact.

But I'm not sure how a new Sony handheld would be viable. It will have less publisher support coming off a failed Vita. If it's a generation ahead in hardware the developments costs will be too high for games to be viable on a modest userbase. If it isn't a generation ahead then it will struggle to interest the consumer.

Only option I see is if they try to do something innovative. But looking at the Wii U it suggests innovative hardware without innovative software doesn't sell. And Sony have not done the innovative hardware/software angle. I don't see the big cultural shift to enable this happening within SCE and I don't see third parties likely to step up to the plate as likely either.
 
Jun 8, 2004
10,138
0
1,305
Mar 3, 2010
17,373
0
0
I didn't say whether it was profitable or not, I said the Vita may be currently profitable. You have no idea the composition of that software, whether it's units, whether it's revenue, and as a percentage it has no meaning without some form of reference. 48% of a small number is an even smaller number. So your statements earlier in the thread about how the Japanese handheld market is some sort of cash cow utopia and your current critiques seem somewhat ironic.

Hirai stated in interviews that they expected Vita to have a breakeven time of 3 years based on much more optimistic projections, twice of thrice current sales from memory. It hasn't been 3 years and sales have been atrocious.

They've just released a product that will be a more profitable venture than the Vita, it's called the PS4. There are opportunities outside gaming to pursue in much more lucrative medical imaging. The cash flow necessary may be better served in reducing liabilities.

The Japanese market at it's peak was worth ~$5-7B yen annually including all hardware and software at the height of the NDS and Wii era. It now stands at less than half that. There's plenty of data on how much it has shrunk and how much mobile has grown. There's plenty of data indicating it will continue to shrink.

Your whole argument seems premised on some emotional reasoning that Nintendo shouldn't be the only one eating the shrinking Japanese handheld pie, when again, ceding that market does not matter from a holistic standpoint in terms of Sony's wider business.
More profitable does not mean the other product is worthless.

My whole argument is based at you don´t give your competitor the whole market, and that there is money to be made in handheld business, even with a shrinking pie.

There's a good chance the project as a whole will make a loss. Handhelds have lower tie-ratios than consoles and Sony rely more on third parties so their software revenue is more limited than if they had higher first party sales. There's a lot of fixed costs in terms of R&D, manufacturing and all the marketing costs to cover.

I get what you're saying about not wanting to give up the entire market to Nintendo. Japanese games like Final Fantasy and Tekken have been important to giving Sony the diversity in game library. If Japanese publishers start putting more projects like Fatal Frame out for Nintendo because they don't have a viable alternative then some of that could filter through to global impact.

But I'm not sure how a new Sony handheld would be viable. It will have less publisher support coming off a failed Vita. If it's a generation ahead in hardware the developments costs will be too high for games to be viable on a modest userbase. If it isn't a generation ahead then it will struggle to interest the consumer.

Only option I see is if they try to do something innovative. But looking at the Wii U it suggests innovative hardware without innovative software doesn't sell. And Sony have not done the innovative hardware/software angle. I don't see the big cultural shift to enable this happening within SCE and I don't see third parties likely to step up to the plate as likely either.
There´s a good chance that the project as a whole will be profitable. Some Japanese pubs are satisfied with how their software perform on the Vita. They have stated it several times, which makes the Vita not failure to some Japanese publishers.

The WiiU is not innovative as the tablet does not offer stuff that did not/does not exist in the market.
 
Apr 20, 2005
670
0
1,095
Barcelona
Prediction League May 2014

[3DS] Mario Golf World Tour (25 days) - 146.000
[PS3] Idolmaster One for All (11 days) - 82.000
[PS3+PSP+3DS] Winning Eleven 2014 Blue Samurai (4 days) - 54.000
[PSV] To LoveRu Darkness Battle Ecstasy (4 days) - 36.000
[PS4] inFamous Second Son (4 days) - 29.500
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
Dec 17, 2011
16,592
0
570
More profitable does not mean the other product is worthless.

My whole argument is based at you don´t give your competitor the whole market, and that there is money to be made in handheld business, even with a shrinking pie.



There´s a good chance that the project as a whole will be profitable. Some Japanese pubs are satisfied with how their software perform on the Vita. They have stated it several times, which makes the Vita not failure to some Japanese publishers.

The WiiU is not innovative as the tablet does not offer stuff that did not/does not exist in the market.
There is money to be made in a lot of things business don't invest in everything profitable venture because there is concept of opportunity cost. It's not worth your time if the same money you invested in one project makes 5 per cent of the profit invested in another, unless there is a vast, vast amount of non stated factors in said project. There's a significant chance the Vita hasn't even broke even. Let alone a potential successor in a far worse position (the Vita came off of the PSP, a Vita successor will come of well the vita.)
 
Mar 19, 2009
51,003
0
0
Toronto, Canada
Prediction League May 2014

[3DS] Mario Golf World Tour (25 days) - 160,000
[PS3] Idolmaster One for All (11 days) - 85,000
[PS3+PSP+3DS] Winning Eleven 2014 Blue Samurai (4 days) - 62,014
[PSV] To LoveRu Darkness Battle Ecstasy (4 days) - 36,000
[PS4] inFamous Second Son (4 days) - 40,000

PS4 owners have nothing to play. Infamous will get a bump thanks to that.
 
Jan 21, 2008
7,602
0
0
Brazil
sites.google.com
Prediction League May 2014

[3DS] Mario Golf World Tour (25 days) - 155,555
[PS3] Idolmaster One for All (11 days) - 99,999
[PS3+PSP+3DS] Winning Eleven 2014 Blue Samurai (4 days) - 88,888
[PSV] To LoveRu Darkness Battle Ecstasy (4 days) - 33,333
[PS4] inFamous Second Son (4 days) - 44,444
 
Nov 17, 2011
4,152
0
0
Prediction League May 2014

[3DS] Mario Golf World Tour (25 days) -187K
[PS3] Idolmaster One for All (11 days) - 58K
[PS3+PSP+3DS] Winning Eleven 2014 Blue Samurai (4 days) - 70K
[PSV] To LoveRu Darkness Battle Ecstasy (4 days) - 25K
[PS4] inFamous Second Son (4 days) - 38K
 
Mar 22, 2007
23,613
2
1,000
Regarding opportunity costs, what exactly is this referring to? In this generation, there might be sold about 25 million "dedicated" gaming handheld system in Japan. What would it be better to invest in in the next generation?


Let alone a potential successor in a far worse position (the Vita came off of the PSP, a Vita successor will come of well the vita.)
I dont think this means too much. A new product means a new idea. Gamecube -> Wii -> WiiU is a pretty good example of this, it shows that it is the idea itself that really matters, being a predecessor or a successor to something doesnt necessarily mean much. Nintendo will also make a new console despite how bad the WiiU is selling. It gives them a new chance to make something different.
 
Nov 4, 2012
15,052
0
0
My whole argument is based at you don´t give your competitor the whole market, and that there is money to be made in handheld business, even with a shrinking pie.
I don't know where you get this notion. Sony is looking out for Sony. They want to know how best to turn their money into more money. Since they operate in many businesses, it's easy for them to decide that some venture isn't making enough and they're rather put the money elsewhere.

They do not care who owns the handheld business. They don't care how much money Nintendo is making in the handheld business, because they know they can't keep up the same performance. They probably don't even care how third parties perform on the Vita, though at least that helps maintain a good relationship. Sony cares about how Sony will perform.

Regarding opportunity costs, what exactly is this referring to? In this generation, there might be sold about 25 million "dedicated" gaming handheld system in Japan. What would it be better to invest in in the next generation?
How many of those would Sony expect to have next generation? Consider that the market will likely shrink and that Nintendo isn't going to disappear.
 
Jan 21, 2008
7,602
0
0
Brazil
sites.google.com
Prediction League March 2014 Results

Congratulations twice to:

- XDDX, for winning by units and mean error %!

Code:
BY UNITS                                           BY MEAN ERROR %                                   
                                                                                         
  1      382,076  XDDX                               1    20.38%  XDDX                   
  2      383,949  strangedopamine                    2    20.39%  strangedopamine        
  3      387,986  Orgen                              3    27.42%  Orgen                  
  4      487,406  Ty4on                              4    28.16%  Bruno MB               
  5      493,986  Kandinsky                          5    28.27%  Ty4on                  
  6      513,626  Bruno MB                           6    28.31%  Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule
  7      518,732  RalchAC                            7    28.56%  Kandinsky              
  8      522,434  DrWong                             8    29.50%  Jamix012               
  9      562,368  michaelius                         9    30.33%  DrWong                 
 10      563,052  Gianni Merryman                   10    31.33%  sörine                 
 11      565,602  sörine                            11    31.87%  1st Course             
 12      584,076  Jamix012                          12    32.27%  RalchAC                
 13      586,333  Chris1964                         13    32.34%  Chris1964              
 14      589,005  Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule           14    33.29%  Road                   
 15      608,444  bakman21                          15    34.39%  Gianni Merryman        
 16      627,476  Road                              16    34.66%  michaelius             
 17      628,088  1st Course                        17    36.69%  SwiftDeath             
 18      634,528  SwiftDeath                        18    36.98%  bakman21               
 19      635,086  Yeshua                            19    38.12%  Yeshua                 
 20      734,592  Melkr_                            20    39.57%  Melkr_                 
 21      762,114  MasterSheen                       21    43.26%  MasterSheen            
 22      810,736  Hexa                              22    44.97%  Hexa                   
 
 
                                        |FAMITSU  |Hexa     |SwiftDeat|michaeliu|Yeshua   |bakman21 |Orgen    |Gianni Me|MasterShe|Melkr_   |sörine   |Daphnes N|Chris1964|Ty4on    |Road     |Jamix012 |XDDX     |DrWong   |strangedo|Bruno MB |RalchAC  |Kandinsky|1st Cours
[PS4] Hardware                          |   169806|   200000|   350000|   250000|   200000|   225000|   163000|   150000|   250000|   198888|   348765|   190000|   210987|   200000|   222222|   227000|   185000|   180000|   154703|   240000|   220000|   125000|   200000
[3DS] Harvest Moon Tsunagaru Shintenchi |   188502|   100000|   125000|   140000|   170000|   155000|   202000|   200000|   150000|   166666|   167439|   167439|   123456|   100000|   144444|   105000|   120000|   135000|   128420|   155000|   205000|   225000|   180000
[PSV] Soul Sacrifice Delta              |    78006|   125000|   100000|   145000|   150000|   150000|   176000|   210000|   140000|   233333|   128543|   100000|   123456|   200000|   111111|    93000|   100000|   150000|   101101|   130000|   175000|   175000|    50000
[PS3+360] Dark Souls II                 |   309854|   375000|   300000|   350000|   250000|   305000|   308000|   290000|   250000|   321111|   245328|   200000|   234567|   350000|   222222|   249000|   300000|   250000|   322500|   235000|   310000|   390000|   230000
[PS3+PSV] J Stars Victory Versus        |   256033|   150000|   140000|   180000|   100000|   130000|   264000|   200000|    75000|    66665|   193627|    60000|    98765|   250000|    66666|    96000|   170000|   125000|   185450|   125000|   135000|   185000|   130000
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid V Ground Zeroes  |   187798|   350000|   275000|   120000|   100000|   210000|   245000|   300000|    40000|   100000|   239534|   200000|   234567|   200000|   111111|   185000|   125000|   220000|   140085|   145000|   260000|   195000|   120000
[PS4] Metal Gear Solid V Ground Zeroes  |   114702|    80000|    40000|    60000|    50000|    78000|    70000|    80000|    35000|    49999|   112329|    84000|    67890|   130000|    66666|    78000|   100000|    95000|   104085|   115000|    90000|   115000|    80000
[PS3+PSV] Samurai Warriors 4            |   248495|   300000|   250000|   200000|   250000|   285000|   289000|   260000|   150000|   130000|   298492|   280000|   210987|   150000|   222222|   165000|   180000|   230000|   154500|   235000|   270000|   310000|   150000
[3DS] Mario Party Island Tour           |   209523|   300000|   175000|   160000|   130000|   336000|   211000|   240000|   200000|   165555|   279593|   320000|   234567|   150000|   222222|   189000|   200000|   300000|   201889|   255000|   240000|   187000|   100000
[PS3+PSV] Hatsune Miku Project Diva F 2n|   165019|   300000|   120000|   195000|   230000|   260000|   281000|   300000|   160000|   177777|   178954|   200000|   210987|   150000|   222222|   229000|   190000|   200000|   207500|   215000|   250000|   238000|   210000
[360] Titanfall                         |        -|        -|        -|        -|        -|        -|        -|        -|        -|        -|        -|        -|        -|        -|        -|        -|        -|        -|        -|        -|        -|        -|        -
  
TOTAL ABS. DIFF.                        |         |  810,736|  634,528|  562,368|  635,086|  608,444|  387,986|  563,052|  762,114|  734,592|  565,602|  589,005|  586,333|  487,406|  627,476|  584,076|  382,076|  522,434|  383,949|  513,626|  518,732|  493,986|  628,088
MEAN ERROR %                            |         |   44.97%|   36.69%|   34.66%|   38.12%|   36.98%|   27.42%|   34.39%|   43.26%|   39.57%|   31.33%|   28.31%|   32.34%|   28.27%|   33.29%|   29.50%|   20.38%|   30.33%|   20.39%|   28.16%|   32.27%|   28.56%|   31.87%
 
STATISTICS                              |  FAMITSU|  GAF_AVG|      MIN|      MAX|    UNDER|     OVER|  CLOSEST BY      
[PS4] Hardware                          |  169,806|  213,208|  125,000|  350,000|      18%|      82%|  163,000 Orgen
[3DS] Harvest Moon Tsunagaru Shintenchi |  188,502|  152,948|  100,000|  225,000|      82%|      18%|  180,000 1st Course
[PSV] Soul Sacrifice Delta              |   78,006|  139,388|   50,000|  233,333|       5%|      95%|   93,000 Jamix012
[PS3+360] Dark Souls II                 |  309,854|  285,806|  200,000|  390,000|      68%|      32%|  310,000 RalchAC
[PS3+PSV] J Stars Victory Versus        |  256,033|  142,099|   60,000|  264,000|      95%|       5%|  250,000 Ty4on
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid V Ground Zeroes  |  187,798|  187,059|   40,000|  350,000|      45%|      55%|  185,000 Jamix012
[PS4] Metal Gear Solid V Ground Zeroes  |  114,702|   80,953|   35,000|  130,000|      86%|      14%|  115,000 Bruno MB
[PS3+PSV] Samurai Warriors 4            |  248,495|  225,918|  130,000|  310,000|      55%|      45%|  250,000 SwiftDeath
[3DS] Mario Party Island Tour           |  209,523|  218,038|  100,000|  336,000|      50%|      50%|  211,000 Orgen
[PS3+PSV] Hatsune Miku Project Diva F 2n|  165,019|  214,793|  120,000|  300,000|      14%|      86%|  160,000 MasterSheen

Note: Titanfall was delayed

That was a close call.

GAF_AVG almost nailed PS3 Ground Zeroes.

The bottom half of the chart is starting to feel like home to me...


where's the April prediction results?
Only after this week's sales.
 
Nov 13, 2011
16,595
0
0
More profitable does not mean the other product is worthless.

My whole argument is based at you don´t give your competitor the whole market, and that there is money to be made in handheld business, even with a shrinking pie.
Why on earth do you think Sony cares about ceding the tiny part of a shrinking handheld market that they occupy. Sony are divesting Vaio, they're spinning out television likely for eventual divestment. But handhelds are clearly a sacred cow.

You can be the only one with blinders on who's surprised when Sony don't announce a successor if you want I guess.
 
Jun 6, 2012
5,419
0
0
Prediction League May 2014

[3DS] Mario Golf World Tour (25 days) - 110,000
[PS3] Idolmaster One for All (11 days) - 65,000
[PS3+PSP+3DS] Winning Eleven 2014 Blue Samurai (4 days) - 88,000
[PSV] To LoveRu Darkness Battle Ecstasy (4 days) - 13,500
[PS4] inFamous Second Son (4 days) - 39,000
 
Aug 2, 2011
2,529
0
0
Your whole argument seems premised on some emotional reasoning that Nintendo shouldn't be the only one eating the shrinking Japanese handheld pie, when again, ceding that market does not matter from a holistic standpoint in terms of Sony's wider business.
It's Phoenician_Viking. The word Nintendo immediately sets him on a blind rage.
 
May 31, 2013
23,628
0
0
I don't see Sony reaching 100 mil with Japan out of the market.

Not gonna happen.
PS3 Japan LTD: 9.932M

360 US LTD: ~41.3M
PS3 US LTD: ~25.7M
% Diff of +60.7% in favor of Xbox

XB1 US LTD: 2.527M
PS4 US LTD: 2.908M
% Diff of +15.1% in favor of Playstation

Scaling it up assuming the market for these consoles remain relatively the same in the US [~67M]

Projected Final LTD

XB1 US LTD: 31.16M
PS4 US LTD: 35.86M

Sony stands to gain roughly ~10.16M consoles in the US assuming the gap continues [considering the PS4 has been outselling the XB1 by about 28% for 2014 in the US, I don't find it unlikely] Sony can easily hit 100M WW while only selling half as much in Japan as the PS3 did
 
Dec 31, 2012
4,856
0
0
RPI
Prediction League May 2014

[3DS] Mario Golf World Tour (25 days) - 140,000
[PS3] Idolmaster One for All (11 days) - 61,000
[PS3+PSP+3DS] Winning Eleven 2014 Blue Samurai (4 days) - 85,000
[PSV] To LoveRu Darkness Battle Ecstasy (4 days) - 22,500
[PS4] inFamous Second Son (4 days) - 35,000
 
Jun 9, 2012
26,506
0
0
Why on earth do you think Sony cares about ceding the tiny part of a shrinking handheld market that they occupy. Sony are divesting Vaio, they're spinning out television likely for eventual divestment. But handhelds are clearly a sacred cow.

You can be the only one with blinders on who's surprised when Sony don't announce a successor if you want I guess.
#MonsterHunter4failure
No, Nintendo should get the whole market and games because er....
Because Nintendo owns the vast majority anyway in a shrinking market that will soon only be supported by Nintendo's large properties and large 3rd party games that aren't popular in the west. But yes Sony should continue to invest in this market for the honor of not ceding it to Nintendo.
 
Feb 28, 2009
9,062
0
0
Tokyo
DQXI will sell 4 million PS4s by itself
I'm a huge DQ fan, but I'm not going to waste 43,000 yen for a system to play a single game. Most DQ fans buy the games cause they already have the system, and history has shown that the games always get released on the largest platform at the end of their life. It won't be for PS4, to believe it is, is irrational.
 
Nov 13, 2011
16,595
0
0
Bullshit.

Japan is more important to Sony than the UK.
I'm not really sure how that changes what I wrote. Japan is no longer as relevant to the global market for home consoles. It is just another market among many.

Furthermore, I'm not even sure if what you assert is accurate. While Sony only sold 5M PS3 last gen in the UK as second fiddle to the 360, to the 10M in Japan, I expect that will essentially reverse - EDIT: or at least draw even. And Japan traditionally has a lower tie ratio than Western counterparts, iirc.

If Japan was such an important market to Sony then that importance would have been apparent in launch scheduling.
 
Feb 28, 2009
9,062
0
0
Tokyo
I'm not really sure how that changes what I wrote. Japan is no longer as relevant to the global market for home consoles. It is just another market among many.

Furthermore, I'm not even sure if what you assert is accurate. While Sony only sold 5M PS3 last gen in the UK as second fiddle to the 360, to the 10M in Japan, I expect that will essentially reverse. And Japan traditionally has a lower tie ratio than Western counterparts, iirc.

If Japan was such an important market to Sony then that importance would have been apparent in launch scheduling.
And development, the PS4 was pretty much totally outsourced. The console market here in Japan is a lost cause, the writing is on the wall.
 
Jun 22, 2011
11,588
0
520
Norway
Prediction League May 2014

[3DS] Mario Golf World Tour (25 days) - 180k
[PS3] Idolmaster One for All (11 days) - 50k
[PS3+PSP+3DS] Winning Eleven 2014 Blue Samurai (4 days) - 50k
[PSV] To LoveRu Darkness Battle Ecstasy (4 days) - 20k
[PS4] inFamous Second Son (4 days) - 60k

Even more of a guess this time than last. Looks like I was lucky last time. I had to laugh out loud at my J Stars result because I had never heard of the game before I made the guess :p
 
Jul 28, 2012
26,651
0
0
I'm not really sure how that changes what I wrote. Japan is no longer as relevant to the global market for home consoles. It is just another market among many.

Furthermore, I'm not even sure if what you assert is accurate. While Sony only sold 5M PS3 last gen in the UK as second fiddle to the 360, to the 10M in Japan, I expect that will essentially reverse - EDIT: or at least draw even. And Japan traditionally has a lower tie ratio than Western counterparts, iirc.

If Japan was such an important market to Sony then that importance would have been apparent in launch scheduling.
Oh shit I forgot how PS4 is effectively reversing trends. My bad. I still think its relatively on par with UK which is a big market (in terms of how much playstation hardware is sold not sure about software). Sure its relevance has notable declined but its still as relevant as the biggest markets in EU.

I thought the point of the launch being later was to ensure there were more titles were there at/near the launch.
 
Feb 28, 2009
9,062
0
0
Tokyo
Oh shit I forgot how PS4 is effectively reversing trends. My bad. I still think its relatively on par with UK which is a big market (in terms of how much playstation hardware is sold not sure about software). Sure its relevance has notable declined but its still as relevant as the biggest markets in EU.

I thought the point of the launch being later was to ensure there were more titles were there at/near the launch.
You're probably right about that, but I'd hate to see what less than 0 would look like, which is effectively how many games PS4 had at launch in Japan.