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[Road]

The month of June will be the 5 weeks from May 29th to July 1st (yes, a month in three months).

Some games released in the period candidates for the monthly prediction:

05/31 - [3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Terry's Wonderland 3D
06/07 - [PSV] Gundam Seed: Battle Destiny
06/07 - [PS3] Tokyo Jungle
06/14 - [PSV] Persona 4: Golden
06/14 - [PSP] Akiba's Trip Plus
06/14 - [PS3] Lollipop Chainsaw
06/21 - [PS3] K-On! Houkago Live!! HD Ver
06/23 - [NDS] Pokemon Black 2/ White 2
06/28 - [PS3] Atelier Ayesha
06/28 - [PS3] Resident Evil Chronicles HD Selection
06/28 - [PS3] .hack: Sekai no Mukou ni+ Versus - Hybrid Pack
06/28 - [PS3] Robotics;Notes
06/28 - [PSV] Metal Gear Solid HD Edition
06/28 - [3DS] Culdcept
06/28 - [WII] Project Zero 2: Wii Edition

Obviously we're not predicting for everything, so we'll choose a few, like half of that list. Although not necessarily only from that list. If you have any game that you think it'll sell something and I forgot, please tell us.

The predictions must be made until next Wednesday.

 

[muu]

Media Create top50 for this week has zero Vita titles.

 

[Dalthien]

Media Create top50 for this week has zero Vita titles.

There might not be a single Vita title that sold even 1,000 units this week. Wow.

 

[AniHawk]

There might not be a single Vita title that sold even 1,000 units this week. Wow.

it's just a little airborne. it's still good, it's still good!

 

[LOCK]

First day sales are Dragon's Dogma > Mario Tennis Open with high sellthrough for DD.

I'm actually happy for Capcom.

 

[DGRE]

Just a little thing I noticed. The 3DS-PSV difference recently passed the Wii-PS3 difference at its peak (5.2m).

BUT! PS3 actually launched BEFORE the Wii in Japan, and the Wii still rose that far from it. I think the gap will widen between the 3DS and PSV much further before it starts to get closer, but I think we're all forgetting how much of a beast the Wii was and how much the PS3 struggled for awhile.

 

[nordique]

Fixed

lol oh wow

yeah see I know nothing about that series portable sales


so good to see Samurai 2nd is off to a promising indication

 

[extralite]

What exactly did they do? I'm planning on picking up IS since we never got it before but I don't want more dumbed down nonsense.

I wouldn't call it dumbing down, I consider Nocturne the best SMT and it made the same adjustment: replacing first person exploring with a 3rd person one (but the square unit based dungeon layouting remains the same). The other changes aren't actually gameplay ones (sorry for my misleading choice of words) and made Persona big on PS2 again: more anime cut scenes, more voice work. Traditional SMT games still don't utilize those.

Edit: I would also like to add that the PS1 Personas have the best demon negotiation systems of all Atlus games, even better than the traditional SMTs. P1 has the most complex one, though IS is still complex but has more interesting dialogue options and group talks. EP was just a little too streamlined for my taste, complexity was starting to be lacking. SMT games tend to have less dialogue options in general, doesn't hurt the concept though.

 

[jj984jj]

There might not be a single Vita title that sold even 1,000 units this week. Wow.

Well at least Persona 4 is less than a month away now.

 

[marc^o^]

Media Create top50 for this week has zero Vita titles.

It's a chance the industry/seemingly everyone loves the vita, because from a rational business perspective its situation is scary, to say the least.

 

[electroplankton]

The month of June will be the 5 weeks from May 29th to July 1st (yes, a month in three months).

Some games released in the period candidates for the monthly prediction:

05/31 - [3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Terry's Wonderland 3D
06/07 - [PSV] Gundam Seed: Battle Destiny
06/07 - [PS3] Tokyo Jungle
06/14 - [PSV] Persona 4: Golden
06/14 - [PSP] Akiba's Trip Plus
06/14 - [PS3] Lollipop Chainsaw
06/21 - [PS3] K-On! Houkago Live!! HD Ver
06/23 - [NDS] Pokemon Black 2/ White 2
06/28 - [PS3] Atelier Ayesha
06/28 - [PS3] Resident Evil Chronicles HD Selection
06/28 - [PS3] .hack: Sekai no Mukou ni+ Versus - Hybrid Pack
06/28 - [PS3] Robotics;Notes
06/28 - [PSV] Metal Gear Solid HD Edition
06/28 - [3DS] Culdcept
06/28 - [WII] Project Zero 2: Wii Edition

Obviously we're not predicting for everything, so we'll choose a few, like half of that list. Although not necessarily only from that list. If you have any game that you think it'll sell something and I forgot, please tell us.

The predictions must be made until next Wednesday.

Well, I guess that with such low numbers, even poor releases will enter in the chart... So I'd consider all of them
If I have to choose:

05/31 - [3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Terry's Wonderland 3D
06/07 - [PS3] Tokyo Jungle
06/14 - [PSV] Persona 4: Golden
06/14 - [PS3] Lollipop Chainsaw
06/23 - [NDS] Pokemon Black 2/ White 2
06/28 - [PS3] Atelier Ayesha
06/28 - [PS3] .hack: Sekai no Mukou ni+ Versus - Hybrid Pack
06/28 - [PS3] Robotics;Notes
06/28 - [3DS] Culdcept

 

[Kenka]

I read that many times in past thread but does GAF think Terry's Wonderland will actually top 1M ? How sure are we of this eventually happening ?

I know the original sold >2M in Japan alone but is this indicative of the mark to which we should set our anticipations ? mpl90, does anything in the preorders indicate that Terry may be a 1M+ success ?

 

[electroplankton]

I read that many times in past thread but does GAF think Terry's Wonderland will actually top 1M ? How sure are we of this eventually happening ?

I know the original sold >2M in Japan alone but is this indicative of the mark to which we should set our anticipations ? mpl90, does anything in the preorders indicate that Terry may be a 1M+ success ?

Well, Dragon Quest Monsters is a strong IP.
On DS, Joker and Joker 2 are well above the million mark (about 1.5 and 1.3 respectively) and even the Joker 2 Professional expansion did well, around 500k; therefore, there are some bases for a strong performance.

Now, I don't think there's the certainty Terry's Wonderland 3D will reach the million seller status, because it's a remake and not a new game in the series. But I think preorders on Comgnet are tracking way above Joker 2 Professional and just behind Joker 2, which opened at 682k.

 

[michaelius]

The month of June will be the 5 weeks from May 29th to July 1st (yes, a month in three months).

Some games released in the period candidates for the monthly prediction:

06/07 - [PSV] Gundam Seed: Battle Destiny
06/14 - [PSV] Persona 4: Golden
06/28 - [PSV] Metal Gear Solid HD Edition
06/28 - White PSV

This will be interesting to see what happens to Vita hardware sales.

 

[Kenka]

Well, Dragon Quest Monsters is a strong IP.
On DS, Joker and Joker 2 are well above the million mark (about 1.5 and 1.3 respectively) and even the Joker 2 Professional expansion did well, around 500k; therefore, there are some bases for a strong performance.

Now, I don't think there's the certainty Terry's Wonderland 3D will reach the million seller status, because it's a remake and not a new game in the series. But I think preorders on Comgnet are tracking way above Joker 2 Professional and just behind Joker 2, which opened at 682k.

That's a good indication. Thank you.


There will be quite a gap between Terry and KH.

 

[electroplankton]

This will be interesting to see what happens to Vita hardware sales.

What do you think about that?
13-15k may be a possibility.

 

[michaelius]

What do you think about that?
13-15k may be a possibility.

I think more like 20k on Gundam release week, 30k on Persona , then 10-15k and another 25-30k on white vita and MGS

 

[electroplankton]

I think more like 20k on Gundam release week, 30k on Persona , then 10-15k and another 25-30k on white vita and MGS

Is this Gundam release so strong?

 

[mclem]

it's just a little airborne. it's still good, it's still good!

Vita owners have gone all-DD! BELIEVE!

 

[Count Dookkake]

Media Create top50 for this week has zero Vita titles.

Wow.

 

[Erethian]

Is this Gundam release so strong?

It's part of the Gundam Battle series. Best-selling one was Battle Universe in 2008, ended up with an LTD of 250k. The last one in 2010 (Assault Survive) did a fair bit less than that, though, about 166k.

Should do over 100k at least, unless the market has dropped out for those sorts of games.

 

[michaelius]

Is this Gundam release so strong?

Well if Ciel no surge gave 4k boost then smething with Gundam in name should push at least 10-15k more Vitas than normally

 

[Bruno MB]

Gundam Seed: Battle Destiny will be lucky to sell over 50k units during its opening (and I'm being very optimistic). In fact I don't expect its lifetime sales to be much higher.

 

[duckroll]

What's the current highest first week debut for a Vita game so far?

 

[Mpl90]

What's the current highest first week debut for a Vita game so far?

Probably still Tales of Innocence R.

EDIT: No, it's Minna no Golf.

 

[electroplankton]

Probably still Tales of Innocence R.

Highest PSVita opening weeks (not just launch titles)

Minna no Golf 6 - 51,577
Tales of Innocence R - 47,312
Uncharted: Golden Abyss - 43,042
Gravity Rush - 40,466

 

[duckroll]

Thanks. It'll be interesting to see if the wave of "bigger" titles this Summer can break that barrier.

 

[electroplankton]

Thanks. It'll be interesting to see if the wave of "bigger" titles this Summer can break that barrier.

Persona 4 The Golden will do that for sure. As for MGS and Gundam, they may join the club 40-50k OW.

 

[michaelius]

Minna no Golf 6 - 51,577
Tales of Innocence R - 47,312
Uncharted: Golden Abyss - 43,042
Gravity Rush - 40,466

MinGol and GR we know are above 100k lifetime - anyone remembers if there was any word about Uncharted ?

 

[StoppedInTracks]

Media Create top50 for this week has zero Vita titles.

Umm... why is Sony doing THE FUCK NOTHING about this?

 

[maquiladora]

Vita needs dat Soul Sacrifice and some other big announcements at E3.

 

[test_account]

Umm... why is Sony doing THE FUCK NOTHING about this?

It is not much use to drop the price right now. And they need more games, and that takes months, maybe years, so it isnt something that can be done in an instance, so to speak.

 

[electroplankton]

MinGol and GR we know are above 100k lifetime - anyone remembers if there was any word about Uncharted ?

Those are just opening weeks.

 

[king zell]

Dragon’s Dogma (this week biggest release)

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/73771/

Mario Tennis Open

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/73763/

more releases for the week

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/73750/

 

[Anustart]

Minna no Golf 6 - 51,577
Tales of Innocence R - 47,312
Uncharted: Golden Abyss - 43,042
Gravity Rush - 40,466

Wow, seeing that blows my mind. I knew the vita was struggling in japan, but I figured it had some higher first week numbers than that...

 

[test_account]

What is the highest opening week for a game at a system launch? Wii Sports with ~177k?

it's just a little airborne. it's still good, it's still good!

 

[Opus Angelorum]

Minna no Golf 6 - 51,577
Tales of Innocence R - 47,312
Uncharted: Golden Abyss - 43,042
Gravity Rush - 40,466

Really? Wow.

And the highest 3DS software week 1 one is?

 

[Bruno MB]

What is the highest opening week for a game at a system launch? Wii Sports with ~177k?

I think it's Ridge Racer V (PS2) - 233,391. Nothing impressive considering PS2 sold 630,552 units in its launch.

Dragon’s Dogma (this week biggest release)

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/73771/

I'll buy it tomorrow, hopefully it will do good enough to guarantee a sequel.

 

[test_account]

Really? Wow.

And the highest 3DS software week 1 one is?

Professor Layton and the Mask of Miracle - 117,589

EDIT: I read that as you asked for launch titles only.

I think it's Ridge Racer V (PS2) - 233,391.

Ah, i checked quick earlier and completely forgot about the PS2 hehe, so i didnt check for that system. Thanks

 

[Anustart]

Professor Layton and the Mask of Miracle - 117,589



Ah, i checked quick earlier and completely forgot about the PS2 hehe, so i didnt check for that system. Thanks

How is that? 3D Land debuted at 343,392? Or are we looking at something else?

 

[test_account]

How is that? 3D Land debuted at 343,392? Or are we looking at something else?

Sorry, i thought he asked for launch titles.

 

[electroplankton]

Really? Wow.

And the highest 3DS software week 1 one is?

Since we were talking about opening weeks in general, and not just opening weeks of launch titles... The biggest one on 3DS was Monster Hunter 3G with 471,055, followed by Mario Kart 7 with 451,932 units.

 

[Anustart]

Sorry, i thought he asked for launch titles.

Ah, maybe he did, I'm probably just reading it wrong.

 

[test_account]

Ah, maybe he did, I'm probably just reading it wrong.

Reading it again, i guess it can be about both things But he probably ment 1st week in general because the Vita list contains games that arent launch titles, so i misunderstood it most likely.

In comparison with the Vita timeframe (about 5 months), the biggest first week on the 3DS was Zelda: Ocarina of Time with 182,998.

 

[ScreenSplitter]

it's just a little airborne. it's still good, it's still good!

What is the highest opening week for a game at a system launch? Wii Sports with ~177k?

I don't think there's ever been a better analogy for what Sony are probably saying to themselves right now.

 

[electroplankton]

I don't think there's ever been a better analogy for what Sony are probably saying to themselves right now.

Guys, I was simply answering to duckroll's question: "What's the current highest first week debut for a Vita game so far?", no words on launch line-up; we were talking about opening weeks during PSVita lifetime, and wondering whether June releases could top them.

 

[michaelius]

If P4 can't top them that would really be time to hit panic mode

So far software sales were ok for the games that were released on PSV and woudn't be much higher if released on other platforms.

 

[RurouniZel]

Miku will save the Vita!

Spoiler

Believe!

 

[Chris1964]

Media Create: 3DS hit 6 millions 65 weeks after launch, same time as DS. Hw/sw ratio for that period is 2,06 for 3DS and 3,16 for DS.


Media Create Sales: Week 20, 2012 (May 14 - May 20)

01./00. [PSP] My Little Sister Can't Be This Cute Portable Can't Be Continuing # <ADV> (Bandai Namco Games) {2012.05.17} (¥6.280) - 53.175 / NEW <80,31%>
02./01. [WII] Mario Party 9 <ETC> (Nintendo) {2012.04.26} (¥5.800) - 25.123 / 359.943 (-33%)
03./00. [PSP] Persona 2: Eternal Punishment <RPG> (Atlus) {2012.05.17} (¥6.279) - 24.547 / NEW
04./02. [3DS] Fire Emblem: Awakening <SLG> (Nintendo) {2012.04.19} (¥4.800) - 14.913 / 376.703 (-10%)
05./00. [PSP] Brothers Conflict: Passion Pink # <ADV> (Idea Factory) {2012.05.17} (¥6.090) - 10.911 / NEW
06./05. [3DS] Super Mario 3D Land # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2011.11.03} (¥4.800) - 10.450 / 1.585.238 (-7%)
07./07. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 <RCE> (Nintendo) {2011.12.01} (¥4.800) - 8.569 / 1.712.918 (-5%)
08./06. [3DS] Monster Hunter 3G # <ACT> (Capcom) {2011.12.10} (¥5.800) - 8.334 / 1.450.809 (-8%)
09./03. [PS3] Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City <ACT> (Capcom) {2012.04.26} (¥6.990) - 6.625 / 326.130 (-54%)
10./08. [3DS] Kid Icarus: Uprising <ACT> (Nintendo) {2012.03.22} (¥5.800) - 6.232 / 275.752 (-18%)
11./00. [3DS] PachiPara 3D: Ooumi Monogatari 2 - Pachi Pro Fuuunroku Hana - Kibou to Uragiri no Gakuen Seikatsu <TBL> (Irem Software Engineering) {2012.05.17} (¥6.090) - 6.144 / NEW
12./09. [3DS] Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games <SPT> (Nintendo) {2012.03.01} (¥4.800) - 5.041 / 167.311 (+2%)
13./04. [PS3] Starhawk <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2012.05.10} (¥5.980) - 4.522 / 17.395 (-65%)
14./11. [WII] Wii Sports Resort with Wii Remote Plus # <SPT> (Nintendo) {2010.11.11} (¥5.800) - 4.416 / 944.388 (+0%)
15./13. [WII] Wii Party # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2010.07.08} (¥4.800) - 3.309 / 2.352.193 (-3%)
16./12. [PSP] Pro Baseball Spirits 2012 <SPT> (Konami) {2012.03.29} (¥5.980) - 3.266 / 135.716 (-19%)
17./17. [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (PSP the Best) <ACT> (Capcom) {2011.09.22} (¥2.990) - 2.807 / 255.572 (-10%)
18./18. [3DS] Harvest Moon: The Land of Origin <SLG> (Marvelous AQL) {2012.02.23} (¥5.040) - 2.718 / 184.906 (-11%)
19./00. [PSP] Bunmei Kaika: Aoiza Ibunroku Saien <ADV> (FuRyu) {2012.05.17} (¥6.090) - 2.694 / NEW
20./25. [NDS] Pokemon Black / White # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2010.09.18} (¥4.800) - 2.551 / 5.471.875
21./10. [PSP] Conception: Please Give Birth to My Child! <RPG> (Spike Chunsoft) {2012.04.26} (¥6.279)
22./14. [PS3] Pro Baseball Spirits 2012 <SPT> (Konami) {2012.03.29} (¥7.980)
23./23. [WII] Mario Kart Wii <RCE> (Nintendo) {2008.04.10} (¥5.800)
24./21. [WII] Just Dance Wii <ACT> (Nintendo) {2011.10.13} (¥5.800)
25./16. [3DS] Kingdom Hearts 3D -Dream Drop Distance- # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2012.03.29} (¥6.090)
26./20. [NDS] Pokemon Conquest <SLG> (Pokemon Co.) {2012.03.17} (¥5.800)
27./22. [3DS] Nintendogs + Cats: French Bulldog / Shiba / Toy Poodle & New Friends <ETC> (Nintendo) {2011.02.26} (¥4.800)
28./19. [PSP] 2nd Super Robot Wars Z: Saisei-hen <SLG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2012.04.05} (¥7.330)
29./28. [WII] Go Vacation <ETC> (Bandai Namco Games) {2011.10.20} (¥5.800)
30./15. [3DS] Dynasty Warriors Vs. <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) {2012.04.26} (¥6.090)
31./24. [3DS] Cho-ricchi! Tamagotchi no Puchi Puchi Omisecchi <ETC> (Bandai Namco Games) {2012.04.19} (¥5.040)
32./26. [WII] Kirby's Return to Dream Land <ACT> (Nintendo) {2011.10.27} (¥5.800)
33./30. [PS3] Gran Turismo 5 XL Edition <RCE> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2012.02.02} (¥4.980)
34./33. [PS3] Battlefield 3 <ACT> (Electronic Arts) {2011.11.02} (¥7.665)
35./38. [PSP] Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories (Rockstar Classics) <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2011.07.21} (¥2.500)
36./31. [3DS] Hatsune Miku and Future Stars: Project Mirai # <ACT> (Sega) {2012.03.08} (¥6.090)
37./34. [WII] Family Fishing # <SPT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2011.08.04} (¥5.040)
38./32. [PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2011.12.15} (¥7.980)
39./45. [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii <ACT> (Nintendo) {2009.12.03} (¥5.800)
40./39. [WII] Super Smash Bros. Brawl <FTG> (Nintendo) {2008.01.31} (¥6.800)
41./37. [PS3] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 - Dubbed Edition <ACT> (Square Enix) {2011.12.22} (¥7.980)
42./48. [PS3] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2012 <SPT> (Konami) {2011.10.06} (¥7.980)
43./00. [PSP] Steins;Gate: Hiyoku Renri no Darling # <ADV> (5pb.) {2012.04.26} (¥6.090)
44./40. [3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy <ACT> (Square Enix) {2012.02.16} (¥6.090)
45./36. [PS3] Winning Post 7 2012 <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) {2012.03.15} (¥7.560)
46./46. [PSP] God Eater: Burst (PSP the Best) <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2011.09.15} (¥2.800)
47./35. [NDS] Detective Conan: Prelude from the Past <ADV> (Bandai Namco Games) {2012.04.19} (¥5.040)
48./00. [PS3] Resident Evil 5: Gold Edition - Twin Pack <ADV> (Capcom) {2012.03.15} (¥5.490)
49./00. [PSP] Persona 3 Portable (PSP the Best) <RPG> (Atlus) {2011.08.25} (¥2.940)
50./00. [PSP] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2012 <SPT> (Konami) {2011.11.03} (¥4.980)

Top 50

3DS - 14
PSP - 13
PS3 - 10
WII - 10
NDS - 3

SOFTWARE

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
|System | This Week  | Last Week  | Last Year  |     YTD    |  Last YTD  |
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
|  ALL  |    422.000 |    381.000 |    462.000 | 17.352.000 | 17.573.000 |
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

HARDWARE

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|System | This Week  | Last Week  | Last Year  |     YTD    |  Last YTD  |     LTD     |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|  3DS  |     45.752 |     46.425 |     17.240 |  1.719.443 |  1.013.259 |   6.001.586 |
|  PS3  |     12.026 |     12.996 |     12.935 |    543.761 |    517.914 |   8.180.146 |
| PSP # |     10.652 |     12.247 |     30.528 |    383.112 |    949.693 |  19.112.496 |
|  PSV  |      6.347 |      6.340 |            |    263.460 |            |     703.446 |
|  WII  |      5.956 |      6.073 |      6.269 |    218.146 |    278.994 |  12.381.367 |
|  PS2  |      1.166 |      1.212 |      1.129 |     23.862 |     33.287 |  21.797.969 |
| NDS # |      1.108 |      1.206 |     10.272 |     38.575 |    434.179 |  32.847.061 |
|  360  |        825 |      1.023 |      2.186 |     29.190 |     49.960 |   1.565.235 |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|  ALL  |     83.832 |     87.522 |     80.559 |  3.219.549 |  3.277.286 | 102.589.306 |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| DSiLL |        683 |        819 |      5.176 |     22.150 |    224.106 |   2.316.469 |
|  DSi  |        425 |        387 |      4.938 |     16.425 |    191.859 |   5.850.475 |
|  PSP  |     10.652 |     12.247 |     30.463 |    383.112 |    934.621 |  18.936.509 |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[electroplankton]

If P4 can't top them that would really be time to hit panic mode

So far software sales were ok for the games that were released on PSV and woudn't be much higher if released on other platforms.

Well, Minna no Golf 6 clearly underperformed; Disgaea 3 apparently did fine for the publisher, but Disgaea ports were used to sell much more on PSP (the first one sold better even on DS); Tales of Innocence R is simply one of the worst result for the series, and Katamary sold way lower than, let's say, the 360 entry.

But sure, Little King's Story sold better than on Wii