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[Opiate]

won't really call it a flourishing ecosystem it's basically the same as consoles if you work the number of hits to failure .
Of course the entry level is much easier \ lower but that happening now on consoles that to all indies and PC ports .

Let's just say the success ratio is the same, as you suggest.

If that's the case, that means iOS is in a much better position, because the market is much larger with a vastly larger number of titles being released. By contrast, there are far fewer consoles releases, and that number is decreasing steadily rather than increasing. Fewer and fewer titles are being released on consoles overall. By contrast, mobile has been growing very rapidly with increasing numbers of titles and rapidly increasing overall revenues.

 

[phanphare]

PS4 sales are hardly surprising. Combine the lack of appealing software with the state of Japan's home console market...
MS shouldn't even bother releasing the X1 there.
Weird how they're still tracking the 360, feels kinda pointless. Look at this: 100 units sold!
Hopefully the Vita will continue to manage staying above 10k even during slow weeks.

I'm pretty surprised with how bad they are. did anyone honestly think the PS4 would be flirting with the Wii U's baseline so soon?

 

[Matesamo]

Just think back to all the PS2 era games for everyone. Scooby doo, puzzle games, Barbie, and so on. Sure a lot of them were crap but you could walk into a store and see such a wide variety of titles that a PS2 would offer something to everyone. Swing by a Gamestop that still carries PS2 game and you will see so many games that used to come to consoles that go to tablets and phones now leaving the consoles for the hardcore gamers. I have a PS4 and with the exception of of the LEGO games there is not much that my kids would be interested in and that hurts the industry.

 

[MagiusNecros]

I'm pretty surprised with how bad they are. did anyone honestly think the PS4 would be flirting with the Wii U's baseline so soon?

I did considering Japan is more handheld oriented. They have been drifting from home console systems for a while. So it really isn't surprising. And then there are the mobile markets you have to take into consideration.

 

[Augemitbutter]

nothing surprising about those PS4 numbers. you'll have to look closer to spot japanese software on that thing. give it time.

 

[Dragonborn]

I'm pretty surprised with how bad they are. did anyone honestly think the PS4 would be flirting with the Wii U's baseline so soon?

I didn't think the PS4 would light Japan on fire but a I also didn't think it'd fall to Win U levels. Sony needs some Japanese games and at this point I don't see them coming any time soon. The only big system seller that comes to mind is FFXV and that's probably years off.

 

[Linkark07]

Couldn't stop laughing after seeing this.

Sadly, that's the situation in Japan.

Gotta add some space for Xbox One when it releases on Japan.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Is the success:failure ratio the same on iOS/Android.
If the number of releases on the platforms overwhelmingly outnumber the number of releases on a console or consoles, then that would seem unlikely.

I'm curious whether there'll eventually be the same escalation of expectations that has occurred in the [Western] console space, that will lead to technical barriers to entry in the same manner.

 

[Kurtofan]

SEGA sure stuck with the dumbest possible time to release Sonic Racing Transformed in Japan.

They seriously released it one week before MK?!

 

[Frodo]

That, let-us-pretend-eveyone-knew-PS4-would-flop-right-ou-of-the-gates narrative is getting tiring.

We can go back and re-visit other threads, there were a few people anticipating it wouldn't be so hot at least until 2015, but I doubt most people knew or predicted it would sink so fast so soon.

Sony should drop the gamepad

Best post.

OH NO YOU DIDN'T! LOL

 

[phanphare]

They seriously released it one week before MK?!

they bought into the GAF hype of that game

 

[Anth0ny]

All of my friends are dead

 

[DaSorcerer7]

That, let-us-pretend-eveyone-knew-PS4-would-flop-right-ou-of-the-gates narrative is getting tiring.

We can go back and re-visit other threads, there were a few people anticipating it wouldn't be so hot at least until 2015, but I doubt most people knew or predicted it would sink so fast so soon.

This.

 

[Miles X]

Why are MC threads taking so long to go up?

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Let's just say the success ratio is the same, as you suggest.

If that's the case, that means iOS is in a much better position, because the market is much larger with a vastly larger number of titles being released. By contrast, there are far fewer consoles releases, and that number is decreasing steadily rather than increasing. Fewer and fewer titles are being released on consoles overall. By contrast, mobile has been growing very rapidly with increasing numbers of titles and rapidly increasing overall revenues.

I would say it's the reverse at least in the west more and more titles are coming consoles thanks to F2P , indies and PC ports , it's the AAA market that getting cut down .
Of course since we talking about Japan the problem over is there is nothing coming out at all from AAA along the way down to indies on consoles .
Then again i see everything merging into one after tech get better so it's only matter of time .

 

[Ansatz]

I'm pretty surprised with how bad they are. did anyone honestly think the PS4 would be flirting with the Wii U's baseline so soon?

Yes, in the same way PS3 and Wii have similar LTD considering PS4 and Wii U are direct successors in terms of software lineups. Whatever is wrong with Wii U applies to the seemingly perfectly designed PS4 as well. Japan is more in line with how I thought the consoles would perform relative to each other.

 

[Metallix87]

You say this "no games only hype" every week on every mc thread and every week is still false because you fáil to realize it has exactly the games the western audience (not gaf) wants to play. Next october there will be another CoD, Fifa, AC, etc. and they will sell gangbusters just like every year.

Unfortunately, those games are all also on systems consumers already own, so while the games will sell gangbusters, it's unlikely that the consoles will.

 

[TheSpaceBetween]

Wow. Pathetic numbers all around. Seriously, I question whether it is even worth it for Microsoft to launch the Xbone there... It probably couldn't even do a million there.

 

[Opiate]

I would say it's the reverse at least in the west more and more titles are coming consoles thanks to F2P , indies and PC ports , it's the AAA market that getting cut down ..

Not just the AAA market, but the AA and A markets are completely dried up. Further, as you can see, indies are not particularly embracing consoles. Overall, the release list for PS2 LTD was larger than PS3 LTD and PS4 is off to a very sparse start.

Anything could happen, of course. Predictions even a year out are difficult without solid release lists. If you want a comparison to iOS releases, look to PC. Please keep in mind that both PC and iOS see literally hundreds if not thousands of released games every year, and it's entirely possible that more games will release on iOS just this year than will release on PS4 in its lifetime.

 

[emb]

It is mostly the AAA market that is getting cut down, but as you can see, indies are not particularly embracing consoles. The release lists for PS2 LTD was larger than PS3 LTD and PS4 is off to a very sparse start.

Anything could happen, of course. Predictions even a year out are difficult without solid release lists. If you want a comparison to iOS releases, look to PC. Please keep in mind that both PC and iOS see literally hundreds if not thousands of released games every year.

Opiate
Depressingly Realistic

 

[Massa]

Unfortunately, those games are all also on systems consumers already own, so while the games will sell gangbusters, it's unlikely that the consoles will.

Consumers are playing the much better versions of those games on the new systems.

 

[Vashetti]

HD development killed console gaming in Japan.

Notice how the two "succeeding" platforms at the moment - 3DS and Vita, are still using PS2-era assets in most of their games. That's why they're succeeding, because games are coming out for them on a regular basis.

PS4, Wii U and soon to be XB1 are floundering in Japan because they can't get to grips with HD development.

That's why the migration to mobile over there has been swift, they can still use those PS2-era style assets. The screens are small enough that the quality of the graphics isn't of utmost importance.

It's also cheaper and simpler for them.

 

[Metallix87]

Consumers are playing the much better versions of those games on the new systems.

Most consumers are not.

 

[Oemenia]

GodStation 4 is so awesome the Japanese just don't get it.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Unfortunately, those games are all also on systems consumers already own, so while the games will sell gangbusters, it's unlikely that the consoles will.

And again, a third of the people who bought Battlefield 4 and Assassin's Creed IV in 2013 bought them on new platforms. 20% of people who bought COD in 2013 did so on new platforms.

That proportion will grow further this year. I expect AC:Unity will sell as well if not better than AC:Comet. People will buy PS4s and XBOs to play the better versions of Destiny.

 

[Dragon1893]

Wow such a target you've placed there,

It's called realism.

 

[Metallix87]

And again, a third of the people who bought Battlefield 4 and Assassin's Creed IV in 2013 bought them on new platforms. 20% of people who bought COD in 2013 did so on new platforms.

Indeed, thus proving that most people who traditionally buy those games chose not to upgrade, feeling that the current gen versions were good enough. Now, factor in how many people upgraded simply because of the hype surrounding the launches, and the picture is very bleak for cross gen content.

 

[KillerMan91]

Unfortunately, those games are all also on systems consumers already own, so while the games will sell gangbusters, it's unlikely that the consoles will.

Currently online in BF4 (Mostly Europeans currently because of timezones):

PC: 26,462
PS3: 28,504
X360: 9,489
PS4: 34,559
Xbox One: 7,837

More people playing with this gen consoles.

 

[Ironjam]

Well the ps4 is in the shitter. Japan is handheld/mobile land now and the few big Japanese publishers that make console games seem to be lttp this generation as well, they are very confortable on the ps3 right now it seems. However sony had to launch in Japan, even with very few games. Launching in holiday 2014, when the games start coming, obviously couldnt happen so they just have to deal with sub 10k sales till something big hits and im not really sure whats coming before FFXV.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Indeed, thus proving that most people who traditionally buy those games chose not to upgrade, feeling that the current gen versions were good enough. Now, factor in how many people upgraded simply because of the hype surrounding the launches, and the picture is very bleak for cross gen content.

Do you think generational transitions typically happen within the space of two months? A third of the audience for some of the biggest titles has already moved.

Cross-gen content is selling systems. New, sparkly graphics and better performance in these titles is selling systems.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Not just the AAA market, but the AA and A markets are completely dried up. Further, as you can see, indies are not particularly embracing consoles. Overall, the release list for PS2 LTD was larger than PS3 LTD and PS4 is off to a very sparse start.

Anything could happen, of course. Predictions even a year out are difficult without solid release lists. If you want a comparison to iOS releases, look to PC. Please keep in mind that both PC and iOS see literally hundreds if not thousands of released games every year, and it's entirely possible that more games will release on iOS just this year than will release on PS4 in its lifetime.

The AA and A market are indies titles and PC ports .
If you look at the first year of of titles on PS3 and compare it to PS4 first year i sure PS4 will have more games out .
Now games wise i know there is no way consoles can compete with PC and iOS the level of entry just so much cheaper and easier .

 

[Otakumegane]

I wonder if the double whammy of Wii not being in HD and the PS3 being too hard to develop for set back Japan's HD development a couple of years.

The PS3 must have taken ages to figure out and they couldn't just take those assests and move development to the Wii or anything.

 

[Vashetti]

Indeed, thus proving that most people who traditionally buy those games chose not to upgrade, feeling that the current gen versions were good enough. Now, factor in how many people upgraded simply because of the hype surrounding the launches, and the picture is very bleak for cross gen content.

Not upgrading =/= not wanting/having the means to upgrade

 

[Fularu]

serious question, Can the PS4 beat the Wii U LTD by the end of the year?

Not a chance with both MK8 and smash this year.

PS4 will have a hard time selling a million units this year, let alone 2.3 to 2.5

 

[Sesha]

Wow. Pathetic numbers all around. Seriously, I question whether it is even worth it for Microsoft to launch the Xbone there... It probably couldn't even do a million there.

It probably won't do great, but it undoubtedly has an audience. I'm speculating, but software sales are maybe enough to justify it Microsoft. There's a lot of Americans, expats and military, living there who want to play the new Halo and Gears, as well as multiplats since most of them are probably unlikely to buy a second current-gen console. MGS5:TPP coming to Xbox I think is significant, in addition to other potential heavies like FF15. Besides that there is a small but mostly steady number of native Xbox enthusiasts who buy a lot of the same games as the Americans, in addition to an even smaller few who buy games in whatever niche franchise or genre Microsoft will hook in order to slightly more justify the Xbox release.

 

[Metallix87]

Do you think generational transitions typically happen within the space of two months? A third of the audience for some of the biggest titles has already moved.

Cross-gen content is selling systems.

I disagree. Hype is selling systems, and the cross gen content is selling because there's not much else to play. I think your prediction that this Fall's titles outsell their last gen counterparts is beyond absurd.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, though, since I feel we're going in circles on the matter.

 

[Metallix87]

Currently online in BF4 (Mostly Europeans currently because of timezones):

PC: 26,462
PS3: 28,504
X360: 9,489
PS4: 34,559
Xbox One: 7,837

More people playing with this gen consoles.

You might want to re-check your math, unless you think PC doesn't count. Also, isn't that game utterly broken on certain systems?

EDIT: Sorry for the double post. At work, on my mobile.

 

[AniHawk]

i had to read that order a couple of times before i saw that it was ps3 > ps4 > wii u and not ps4 > ps3 > wii u.

conventional wisdom says the ps4 will pick up once big games come out (probably sometime next year), but i didn't expect the wii u to be so close in sales even without its biggest software for the year.

the 3ds doing what the vita does on a good day is also pretty terrible. as much as i'm sure they would hate to start from zero, nintendo's gotta be itching to get a new platform out there.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I disagree. Hype is selling systems, and the cross gen content is selling because there's not much else to play. I think your prediction that this Fall's titles outsell their last gen counterparts is beyond absurd.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, though, since I feel we're going in circles on the matter.

All generational transitions are driven by hype. They're also driven by content, because people don't buy systems just to look at them being shiny and new.

My prediction is that Unity may outsell Comet in the US market. Not that every title will sell more on current gen.

An active collective installed base of ~3.8M bought about a third of some of these titles in 2013, compared to a more passive/lapsed collective installed base of ~65M combined systems. The former will have roughly doubled come Oct/Nov, while the latter will be buying even less software than last year.

 

[KillerMan91]

You might want to re-check your math, buddy. Also, isn't that game utterly broken on certain systems?

EDIT: Sorry for the double post. At work, on my mobile.

Eh. Maybe you should re-check your math =P

PS3+X360: 37 993
PS4+Xbone: 42 396

It was pretty broken during launch (as far as I understand for this gen systems mostly) but nowadays it works fine.

Edit. Why would PC count? Its not a console. It doesn't have a ''gen''.

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

Japanese market is weird. Deverlopers are reluctant to make games for low install base systems but then shoot themselves in the foot because they are not helping to build said install base.

It's a bunch chickens waiting for eggs to hatch and eggs waiting for chickens to birth them.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

You might want to re-check your math, unless you think PC doesn't count. Also, isn't that game utterly broken on certain systems?

EDIT: Sorry for the double post. At work, on my mobile.

PC does not have a gen .

Japanese market is weird. Deverlopers are reluctant to make games for low install base systems but then shoot themselves in the foot because they are not helping to build said install base.

It's a bunch chickens waiting for eggs to hatch and eggs waiting for chickens to birth them.

Japanese companies are so sacred \ running after mobile they not even making cross gen stuff that should cheap as hell to do .
I mean how hard could be to port a game like TOZ it already look like PS2.5 game and sure it hardly using the system .

 

[Metallix87]

Unity may be the big exception, mostly because they're actually totally separate games, both in content and title, though I wonder how the marketing will showcase that.

PC does not have a gen .

I never said it did. I did say, though, that these games could already be played on hardware consumers already owned, and PC counts for that.

 

[NTIETS13A_Superiority]

As depressing as japan console market is, I hope it makes sony drop ps4 price sooner rather than later.

 

[Metallix87]

Eh. Maybe you should re-check your math =P

PS3+X360: 37 993
PS4+Xbone: 42 396

It was pretty broken during launch (as far as I understand for this gen systems mostly) but nowadays it works fine.

Edit. Why would PC count? Its not a console. It doesn't have a ''gen''.

PC counts as hardware consumers already own that can play the software.

 

[tilinelson2]

Now the company-lovers look like two beggars laughing at the misfortunes of each other and boasting their competence when they receive a dime while the other receives a 5 cent coin.

There is also a permanent "chalkboard" mentality. "Things are slow now, but will change when game-X-that won't-move-significant hardware is released" is the only market analysis for every system.

On the good side, I am happy with Moero Chronicles numbers, I was afraid that it wouldn't repeat Monster Monpiece success, but it did. Compile Heart is very niche and most people don't care about their output, but I like the way they are managing their output with a good balance of mainline titles from IPs, experimental spin-offs and new IPs.

 

[Mpl90]

If I have to express my opinion on how Western titles will do in the Western market:

All of them will debut better on PS4 and One, and could have first two-three weeks of strong sales, BUT then sales will go down very quickly, while PS3 and 360 SKUs will see lower sales from start, but more consistent through time. Some titles more (COD), others less, but that should be the pattern. Look at Titanfall and (especially) inFAMOUS drops from March to April as an example.

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

Now the company-lovers look like two beggars laughing at the misfortunes of each other and boasting their competence when they receive a dime while the other receives a 5 cent coin.

There is also a permanent "chalkboard" mentality. "Things are slow now, but will change when game-X-that won't-move-significant hardware is released" is the only market analysis for every system.

On the good side, I am happy with Moero Chronicles numbers, I was afraid that it wouldn't repeat Monster Monpiece success, but it did. Compile Heart is very niche and most people don't care about their output, but I like the way they are managing their output with a good balance of mainline titles from IPs, experimental spin-offs and new IPs.

The only chalkboard thing I have is games, plural. A steady stream of meaningful games. Otherwise if you lived in Japan why should you buy a PS4 right now? The biggest release of the year there is only on PS3, Persona 5, and I don't know of a single title coming to only PS4.

 

[Metallix87]

The only chalkboard thing I have is games, plural. A steady stream of meaningful games. Otherwise if you lived in Japan why should you buy a PS4 right now? The biggest release of the year there is only on PS3, Persona 5, and I don't know of a single title coming to only PS4.

The biggest releases of the year in Japan are on 3DS.

 

[Tripon]

Japanese market is weird. Deverlopers are reluctant to make games for low install base systems but then shoot themselves in the foot because they are not helping to build said install base.

It's a bunch chickens waiting for eggs to hatch and eggs waiting for chickens to birth them.

Its not the 3rd party publishers to build install base. That's the job of first party and they need to convince them to do it either by offering to help with dev/marketing costs or lower royalty rates.

If Sony wanted faster PS4 development, they should have done the steps to process that further.