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Media Create Sales: Week 27, 2015 (Jun 29 - Jul 05)

Sakura

Member
Feb 13, 2012
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550
705
Fukuoka, Japan
I mean...MAYBE as a single SKU, but the sales of Persona 5 and MGSV on all systems they're available on will surely both outdo Splatoon.
Not really sure about Persona 5 outselling it.
I could also see Splatoon doing well during Christmas depending on how popular it still is.
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
0
0
If they're going for the Minecraft audience then I'm sure they'll make creativity a major factor in the game. It'd be a bit weird if they didn't.
You'd think that but Minecraft is expansive to an almost prohibitive degree, and is why you never really see full-on clones from any large publishers. Or why Microsoft didn't just make their own.

I don't think retailers had much expectation with an MMO expansion. Most sales will be digital, especially with FFXIV ARR that came free in digital format if you had 1.0.
In Japan, retailers are the ones buying the copies and they do so under their own expectations. And this is bad sell-through to those expectations:

05./00. [PS4] Final Fantasy XIV: Heavensward # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2015.06.23} (¥4.104) - 35.830 / NEW <40-60%>
12./00. [PS3] Final Fantasy XIV: Heavensward # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2015.06.23} (¥4.104) - 8.509 / NEW <40-60%>
16./00. [PS4] Final Fantasy XIV: The Complete Experience {Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn \ Final Fantasy XIV: Heavensward} <RPG> (Square Enix) {2015.06.23} (¥6.264) - 4.726 / NEW <40-60%>
 

Jamix012

Member
Jun 6, 2012
5,419
0
0
Not really sure about Persona 5 outselling it.
I could also see Splatoon doing well during Christmas depending on how popular it still is.
Persona 5 will be huge for Atlus. I really think this is going to be the break out hit the series has been waiting for. All numbers of spinoffs are unusally high, especially considering how many of them there are. The main game will really put asses in seats, I feel.
 

random25

Member
May 23, 2014
12,784
0
0
I mean...MAYBE as a single SKU, but the sales of Persona 5 and MGSV on all systems they're available on will surely both outdo Splatoon.
MGSV...probably. Depending on how strong it will open FW and its legs. Who knows how much Splatoon has made by the time MGSV debuted.

As for Persona 5, do we know when it will arrive? It may not have enough time to catch up to Splatoon numbers if it will launch during the late holidays.
 

Jigorath

Banned
Aug 22, 2013
12,903
2
0
twitter.com
You'd think that but Minecraft is expansive to an almost prohibitive degree, and is why you never really see full-on clones from any large publishers. Or why Microsoft didn't just make their own.
If you're talking about size then creating an endless procedurally generated world isn't actually impossible for Square to accomplish.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
I mean...MAYBE as a single SKU, but the sales of Persona 5 and MGSV on all systems they're available on will surely both outdo Splatoon.
I don't see MGS5 having the hype or sales of MGS4. P5 is wait and see but I doubt it will top Splatoon either.
 

Sakura

Member
Feb 13, 2012
8,742
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705
Fukuoka, Japan
Persona 5 will be huge for Atlus. I really think this is going to be the break out hit the series has been waiting for. All numbers of spinoffs are unusally high, especially considering how many of them there are. The main game will really put asses in seats, I feel.
While I'm sure Persona 5 will do well, by the time it comes out, Splatoon could be sitting at 500~600k for the year. I'm not that confident Persona 5 will do better than that in the time it is out this year.
 

noshten

Member
Oct 20, 2014
3,845
1
400
Sofia
MGSV...probably. Depending on how strong it will open FW and its legs. Who knows how much Splatoon has made by the time MGSV debuted.

As for Persona 5, do we know when it will arrive? It may not have enough time to catch up to Splatoon numbers if it will launch during the late holidays.

I was under the impression that MGSV is expected to be the worst selling game in the franchise in Japan. I guess we will find out in a few months.

I don't think Persona 5 will have enough time to catch up provided Splatoon continues to chug a long and has some surges in the Holidays.
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
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0
If you're talking about size then creating an endless procedurally generated world isn't actually impossible for Square to accomplish.
No, not size. Complexity and player freedom. What you can do in Minecraft is astounding (let me tell you, I spend way to much time in it). The breadth of gameplay/building possibilities is nothing short of a happy accident.

But if its just a matter of size and building? Sure. SE can do that. (My point was, also, that a lot of pubs can get that done, but they don't bother because that's not really where Minecraft's legs and community draw come from.)
 

hiska-kun

Member
Mar 9, 2012
3,567
0
515
Spain
Splatoon has a constant sellthrough rate of 80 - 100 % according to the Famitsu charts, I wonder if they're actually undershipping and if the game would be selling much better with a better availability
I don't know if you realize that almost every game (except the overshipments) has a 80-100% weekly sell-through.

Stock problems for Splatoon ended a few weeks ago.
 
Why does everyone forget about Mario Maker? That'll outsell Splatoon.
I think it depends on Splatoon being bundled or not. If it is, forget about Mario Maker having higher LTD. Anyway, we really don't know the commercial potential of Mario Maker. Maybe it can really take Splatoon sales. Surely, Wii U will take lot of profit from these games, this year.
 

Pennywise83

Banned
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
0
0
www.wiitalia.it
07./10. [3DS] Dragon Ball Z: Extreme Butoden <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2015.06.11} (¥6.145) - 7.573 / 103.186 <60-80%> (-18%)

DB is doing ok. Wonder whether the anime + Obon can sustain its sales; it alread outsold the Butoden DS game (which was a bit late in the DS lifecycle, though).
 

Spiegel

Member
Feb 20, 2007
7,957
0
970
Spain
I don't see MGS5 having the hype or sales of MGS4. P5 is wait and see but I doubt it will top Splatoon either.
MGS is a consistent seller franchise. No reason why MGS5 should sell less than MGS4, which sold less than what Peace Walker did (original releases only)
 

noshten

Member
Oct 20, 2014
3,845
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400
Sofia
People are seriously overestimating Mario Maker in Japan, I can see that title maybe making 250-300k by the end of the year and having great legs depending on how the Online is Flushed out.
Splatoon is being marketed for free in Japan, just looking at those miiverse posts in Japan I regret not being able to see them in my game. On top of that it appears plenty of artists drawing manga have jumped on the InkTrain

MGS is a consistent seller franchise. No reason why MGS5 should sell less than MGS4, which sold less than what Peace Walker did (original releases only)
There is certainly reasons for this installment of the franchise to sell less in Japan, I expect it to do great WW but in Japan I get the feeling there isn't much chance of it selling as much as MGS4.
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
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0
People are seriously overestimating Mario Maker in Japan, I can see that title maybe making 250-300k by the end of the year and having great legs depending on how the Online is Flushed out.
A couple of years from now, it will be interesting to see how DQB and SMM end up performing/comparing to each other. At least the WiiU version of SMM, anyway.

Splatoon is being marketed for free in Japan, just looking at those miiverse posts in Japan I regret not being able to see them in my game. On top of that it appears plenty of artists drawing manga have jumped on the InkTrain
Nintendo hasn't stopped advertising it, either.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Sep 2, 2011
18,552
8
0
Why does everyone forget about Mario Maker? That'll outsell Splatoon.
Uhm...probably. But I'm still a bit cautios about seeing how Nintendo will promote the game. and I don't know if the game will be more "system seller" than Splatoon, being a third iteration of Mario platform on the Wii U.
Plus, Baisaku said that Mario is dead.

You can predict a trend watching the MK8 - Spltn comparison.
The game might get a bump on week 9 (start summer vacations), and another one on week 12 (Obon).
Interesting approach. let's see if the August update will match with those weekly event to sustain Wii U sales too.

No surprise - when Tropical Freeze barely made it to 100k. At least the Amiibos will sell well...lol.
Famitsu:
Kirby: 33.334 - 68.371 (after 7 weeks)
Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze: 43.301 - 116k (from the recent updates)

Let's say that I was expecting a debut in between those two, with a possible LTD around 100K.
 

mclem

Member
Jan 16, 2007
42,665
3
1,060
Splatoon is amazing. It barely even dropped this week.
Something I wondered last week was whether it'll get its first +x% week-on-week sales before it drops below five figures, because I don't think that's a particularly common occurrence these days. It's getting close.
 

Wynnebeck

Banned
Aug 5, 2012
13,025
0
0
Not really sure about Persona 5 outselling it.
I could also see Splatoon doing well during Christmas depending on how popular it still is.
Uh Persona 5 will easily outsell Splatoon. The hype will be real as they get closer to release.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
MGS is a consistent seller franchise. No reason why MGS5 should sell less than MGS4, which sold less than what Peace Walker did (original releases only)
All things end some time. I have no data to back up my theory for MGS5 except from personal feeling.
 

Wiggy

Member
Jul 10, 2014
1,159
0
305
Manchester, UK
I wake up to a DQ:Minecraft...

Safely say I didn't expect that...
or the Microsoft cease and desist letter.
Haha same here, Verendus was right telling us how little we know of their plans.

That said, I question the relevance against actual Minecraft which is a largely community driven, creative powered tool. I don't imagine that DQB will actually have any of this outside of the paperthin skin layer on top... which you can do in Minecraft with proper modding.
You dont think it will be a big seller?
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
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Uhm...probably. But I'm still a bit cautios about seeing how Nintendo will promote the game. and I don't know if the game will be more "system seller" than Splatoon, being a third iteration of Mario platform on the Wii U.
Plus, Baisaku said that Mario is dead.
SMM exists for the same reason that DQB exists, its for the creative kids/crowd that Minecraft is growing. SE went about chasing said crowd with making not-quite-Minecraft, while Nintendo went about it with romhack tools.

Both will get heavy advertising, and Mario will almost certainly get a ton of advertising. Its Mario after all.

Something I wondered last week was whether it'll get its first +x% week-on-week sales before it drops below five figures, because I don't think that's a particularly common occurrence these days. It's getting close.
Minecraft and AC:NL are the only ones I can think of doing it with any sort of consistency in the four figure range.

Uh Persona 5 will easily outsell Splatoon. The hype will be real as they get closer to release.
Nothing "easy" about it. By the time P5 hits, Splatoon will be over half a million, and possibly makings its way into a holiday bundle. At which point...

You dont think it will be a big seller?
As a huge Minecrafter (admittedly on PC, with admittedly a lot of mods), the draw of Minecraft is in part its enormous and creative community and in part its utter freedom, neither of which I foresee in this title. This looks like a building game... I doubt the in-depth logic circuits of Minecraft around going to be in here, for instance. I'll draw a better conclusions when we hear more but my original point was and will remain: there's a reason other pubs haven't bothered making a Minecraft clone.

When we get more info on the title (and I ask my friend what is in the Famitsu article for a better idea on what they are planning here) I may make a bigger post with regards to what I think about this vs. minecraft and its appeal. No doubt DQ will be a strong lure, though.
 

Scum

Junior Member
Jun 8, 2004
23,430
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0
London, England
If only Nintendo could afford a £$199.99 Yen equivalent Splatoon bundle...

...but still, here's hoping for more IPs in popular genres from the Garage Car Hole teams. Take note, Iwata!
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
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0
Not only that, but it's selling more Wii Us than MK8 was doing at the same timeframe. Fantastink!
This is the known-quantity release vs. unknown-quantity release affect.

People knew Mario Kart (and Smash) were inevitabilities as well as Mario. That's why these sorts of titles don't usually see large or long lasting bumps (we'll see the same with the PS4 eventually, and its why the "wait for X" or chalkboard discussions are jokes).

Its the weird, out of nowhere titles that spur on actual hardware interest outside of the bare baseline. Huge IPs bring in spikes, but people know those IPs are eventually coming, so affects of this variety are spread far and thin. New titles and new IP can't have been anticipated (for obvious reasons) and so see their affects take hold after their release rather than before, and look much more "effective". Now, generally, these sorts of affects don't tend to last two months... but squid.
 

hiska-kun

Member
Mar 9, 2012
3,567
0
515
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Uh Persona 5 will easily outsell Splatoon. The hype will be real as they get closer to release.
It will outsell Splatoon so easily that it will never happen.

Something I wondered last week was whether it'll get its first +x% week-on-week sales before it drops below five figures, because I don't think that's a particularly common occurrence these days. It's getting close.
Check my post about summer holidays and Obon.
 

Wiggy

Member
Jul 10, 2014
1,159
0
305
Manchester, UK
As a huge Minecrafter (admittedly on PC, with admittedly a lot of mods), the draw of Minecraft is in part its enormous and creative community and in part its utter freedom, neither of which I foresee in this title. This looks like a building game... I doubt the in-depth logic circuits of Minecraft around going to be in here, for instance. I'll draw a better conclusions when we hear more but my original point was and will remain: there's a reason other pubs haven't bothered making a Minecraft clone.
Warner is making a minecraft clone - lego one. And i think it wont have minecraft legs, but will still be a big seller.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
865
29
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
This is the known-quantity release vs. unknown-quantity release affect.

People knew Mario Kart (and Smash) were inevitabilities as well as Mario. That's why these sorts of titles don't usually see large or long lasting bumps (we'll see the same with the PS4 eventually, and its why the "wait for X" or chalkboard discussions are jokes).

Its the weird, out of nowhere titles that spur on actual hardware interest outside of the bare baseline. Huge IPs bring in spikes, but people know those IPs are eventually coming, so affects of this variety are spread far and thin. New titles and new IP can't have been anticipated (for obvious reasons) and so see their affects take hold after their release rather than before, and look much more "effective". Now, generally, these sorts of affects don't tend to last two months... but squid.
And this is why, ladies and gentlemen, NX at launch needs Kid Icarus: Uprising 2 by Platinum Games. Who the fuck would expect that? And how awesome would it be?
 

random25

Member
May 23, 2014
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I was under the impression that MGSV is expected to be the worst selling game in the franchise in Japan. I guess we will find out in a few months.

I don't think Persona 5 will have enough time to catch up provided Splatoon continues to chug a long and has some surges in the Holidays.
I have no way in gauging the interest in MGSV in Japan right now, but having 2 platforms (+1 for whatever XBO version will give, +1 if Konami bothers to sell the 360 version there) would surely help increase total sales for the game. But then again, it will really depend on how big it will open and for how long it will sell good numbers this year because right now Splatoon would probably be over 600k units by the time MGSV launches, plus Splatoon has proven to have strong weekly sales post launch that will further improve its numbers in the long run. So far, every new main line MGS game outside of MGS1 and Ground Zeroes have opened above 400k FW. If MGSV PP combined FW sales can do better than its predecessors' opening weeks then it may have a chance. Otherwise, I don't think it can catch up.
 

Jigorath

Banned
Aug 22, 2013
12,903
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Uhm...probably. But I'm still a bit cautios about seeing how Nintendo will promote the game. and I don't know if the game will be more "system seller" than Splatoon, being a third iteration of Mario platform on the Wii U.
Plus, Baisaku said that Mario is dead.
It definitely won't be a system seller. It's the third Mario game on the platform. Splatoon, being a new IP, has the benefit of reaching an entirely different audience than the usual Nintendo crowd. Like I'm sure Brain Age sold more DS systems than almost any other game on the system despite being a new IP. Same for Wii Sports on the Wii.

I still think the game will sell very well though.

Not as well as DQ Builder though Vena :p
 

Dash Kappei

Not actually that important
Apr 8, 2005
15,737
2
1,500
twitter.com
I wake up to a DQ:Minecraft...

Safely say I didn't expect that... or the Microsoft cease and desist letter.[/SPOILER]
.
Wait what?

Uh Persona 5 will easily outsell Splatoon. The hype will be real as they get closer to release.
Is this a serious post?
I call for an avatar bet if so. Is a 100k difference between the two ok? You said "easily", so surely it can't be less than that?
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Sep 9, 2006
27,410
1
0
So we are comparing Persona 4 and Splatoon now? Erm okay.
 

Sakura

Member
Feb 13, 2012
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705
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Uh Persona 5 will easily outsell Splatoon. The hype will be real as they get closer to release.
???
Persona 4 did like, ~300k first year.
Splatoon will likely be at 500~600k when Persona 5 comes out.
I know Persona seems to be pretty strong these past years, but I don't think it has gotten so big that it will do more than double the sales of the last instalment.
And even if it does outsell Splatoon, it will be close, not 'easily'.
 

Interceptor

Banned
Nov 10, 2012
5,853
0
0
We are so used to these numbers now but it still blows my mind that there is fairly steady number of 30K people buying a handheld (or a console, doesnt really matter) every week.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Sep 2, 2011
18,552
8
0
LEGO is not that strong in Japan. I meant something a la Splatoon, where even manga creators have been involved. Something GTA-ish but with a japanese appeal. NX would do well, if it was released with a game like that.
and still City on Wii U was able to sell 106k!
On Wii U!!! in Japan!
Astonished.