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[AOC83]

Too soon to say that, honestly.

Not necessarily. The Vita was dead before it was even released.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Hmm, I wonder how Dangan Ronpa 1 & 2 on Vita will perform ... The anime is obviously helping.

Depends on whether the anime will gain popularity and a huge following. The PSP games are bumping back in the Top 30 and the pre-orders for the VITA version are also charting in Amazon Top 10.

 

[Bruno MB]

Congratulations to hiska-kun for winning by both units and percentages!

BY UNITS                             BY PERCENTAGE

  1    98,501 hiska-kun                 1   65.1% hiska-kun
  2   185,133 Kenka                     2  118.9% XDDX
  3   193,133 XDDX                      3  144.1% Kenka
  4   203,001 Yeshua                    4  152.5% saichi
  5   207,961 Bruno MB                  5  156.6% Yeshua
  6   245,760 strangedopamine           6  163.6% strangedopamine
  7   250,001 metalslimer               7  164.0% metalslimer
  8   252,961 MasterSheen               8  168.4% Bruno MB
  9   255,338 saichi                    9  170.1% MasterSheen
 10   278,539 Kandinsky                10  171.4% Orgen
 11   285,223 Road                     11  175.1% Road
 12   293,001 DrWong                   12  185.4% DrWong
 13   298,001 Zeer0id                  13  185.6% Chris1964
 14   301,197 Chris1964                14  197.8% Nekki
 15   323,001 fek                      15  198.2% deathcobra
 16   334,339 Nekki                    16  199.3% Kandinsky
 17   358,001 deathcobra               17  199.7% fek
 18   363,000 lunchwithyuzo            18  210.4% michaelius
 19   369,471 michaelius               19  214.2% lunchwithyuzo
 20   386,193 L Thammy                 20  224.2% Zeer0id
 21   390,001 Orgen                    21  234.0% L Thammy
 22   433,001 ohlawd                   22  254.8% ohlawd
 23   673,063 Gianni Merryman          23  500.0% Gianni Merryman

                                     Famitsu    Bruno MB  Gianni Me Zeer0id   MasterShe deathcobr strangedo metalslim Nekki     Chris1964 ohlawd    L Thammy  michaeliu lunchwith fek       Orgen     DrWong    Kandinsky Yeshua    Kenka      Road      hiska-kun XDDX      saichi
[3DS] Donkey Kong Country Returns 3D    154,296    225000         0    300000    240000    375000    250000    310000    325000    321098    400000    297151    350000    333333    320000    417000    305000    109900    180000    212000    222222    166000    180000    199999
[3DS] New Etrian Odyssey                 92,566    100000         0    125000    105000    105000    101500     95000    105000     89012    130000     93142     70000     99999    100000     93000    100000     55202    100000     65000     99999     93000     85000    101000
[PS3] Gundam Breaker                    170,020    177000         0    150000    200000    155000    150079    163000    120000    123456    170000     62281    100000     88888    150000    129000    130000    160600     80000    170000     88888    145000    110000     99000
[PS3] Atelier Escha & Logy               58,169     98000         0     85000     75000     75000     42500     70000     55000     67890     90000     50583     55000     66666     70000     61000     65000     82900     90000     80000     66666     67500     65000     53000
[PSP+PSV] Toukiden                      198,012    115000         0    125000     90000    105000     92500    125000    100000    123456     80000     70575    120000    111111     80000    115000    110000    360640    150000    120000     77777    146000    105000     73000

UNIT DIFF                                     0    207961    673063    298001    252961    358001    245760    250001    334339    301197    433001    386193    369471    363000    323001    390001    293001    278539    203001    185133    285223     98501    193133    255338
PERCENTAGE DIFF                            0.0%    168.4%    500.0%    224.2%    170.1%    198.2%    163.6%    164.0%    197.8%    185.6%    254.8%    234.0%    210.4%    214.2%    199.7%    171.4%    185.4%    199.3%    156.6%    144.1%    175.1%     65.1%    118.9%    152.5%

STATISTICS
                                        Famitsu   GAF-AVG   MIN       MAX       OVER      UNDER     CLOSEST   BY
[3DS] Donkey Kong Country Returns 3D    154,296   274,487   109,900   417,000       91%        9%   166,000 hiska-kun
[3DS] New Etrian Odyssey                 92,566    95,948    55,202   130,000       74%       26%    93,000 Orgen
[PS3] Gundam Breaker                    170,020   132,827    62,281   200,000        9%       91%   170,000 ohlawd
[PS3] Atelier Escha & Logy               58,169    69,623    42,500    98,000       74%       26%    61,000 Orgen
[PSP+PSV] Toukiden                      198,012   117,957    70,575   360,640        4%       96%   150,000 Yeshua

- Quite the convincing lead by hiska-kun this month.
- I was ready to say everybody underestimated Toukiden, but Kandisky bet 360k...
- Gundam was also underestimated, but not as much in average.
- DKR went in the opposite direction, with most people overestimating.
- Gianni Merryman edited after the deadline...

The results are here, thanks Road for all the work

¡Enhorabuena hiska-kun!

I hadn't overestimate a Nintendo first-party title for 3DS since New Super Mario Bros. 2, it was about time! Let's see how Mario & Luigi Dream Team does. I 'm pretty conservative with this title (255.000) but it doesn't seem it will set the charts on fire.

New Etrian Odyssey was the most predictable game ever sales-wise, no wonder we nailed its sales.

My worst prediction goes to Atelier Escha & Logy since it was evident going by pre-orders that it wouldn't reach Atelier Meruru: The Alchemist of Arland 3. It even did way worse than Atelier Ayesha: The Alchemist of the Land of Twilight.

Toukiden is the big surprise here, and to think that I felt I was being very optimistic when I predicted it would debut selling 115.000 units. A big win for Koei Tecmo, a company that was in need of a success after Dead or Alive 5 and Ninja Gaiden 3 did so bad.

 

[StoppedInTracks]

Blaming low Wii U sales on the weather. Now I've seen everything.

 

[Kenka]

hiska-kun you sneaky (and glorious) bastard.
Awesome job Road !

 

[Metallix87]

Not necessarily. The Vita was dead before it was even released.

Not really. It had the right momentum for months before release. What went wrong afterwards was a combination of Nintendo's aggressive pricing, Sony misreading the market, and the wrong software being the primary focus of the launch window and beyond.

 

[SgtCobra]

Too soon to say that, honestly.

Because?

 

[Metallix87]

Because?

Are we really going to base the entire life of the Wii U on seven months of no releases, then the first release being from one of Nintendo's lesser-selling franchises?

If Mario 3D, Donkey Kong, and Mario Kart meet similar results, then we can call the system dead. Pikmin 3, while likely an amazing game, was never going to be a major system seller, and the fate of the system should not be tied to it's performance.

 

[pieatorium]

Are we really going to base the entire life of the Wii U on seven months of no releases, then the first release being from one of Nintendo's lesser-selling franchises?

If Mario 3D, Donkey Kong, and Mario Kart meet similar results, then we can call the system dead. Pikmin 3, while likely an amazing game, was never going to be a major system seller, and the fate of the system should not be tied to it's performance.

Bus
NSMBU

 

[Metallix87]

NSMBU is but one game, and it came out almost a year ago. Did you really expect that game to carry the system alone for a year, especially since it launched so close to NSMB2, a release on a platform seeing a great deal of growth in terms of both sales and releases?

 

[Pie and Beans]

Are we really going to base the entire life of the Wii U on seven months of no releases, then the first release being from one of Nintendo's lesser-selling franchises?

If Mario 3D, Donkey Kong, and Mario Kart meet similar results, then we can call the system dead. Pikmin 3, while likely an amazing game, was never going to be a major system seller, and the fate of the system should not be tied to it's performance.

It all depends what you count as a dead system. I'd say between Saturn, Dreamcast and Gamecube. Which is where WiiU is undoubtedly heading.

Once again, to reach Gamecube lifetime, Kart, 3D World, and Smash will have to sell around 5 million pieces of hardware EACH off of their own backs because third parties won't be showing up and theyre undoubtedly the only big console games Nintendo produce that pulls crowds. Do you think thats feasible? I don't.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Not really. It had the right momentum for months before release. What went wrong afterwards was a combination of Nintendo's aggressive pricing, Sony misreading the market, and the wrong software being the primary focus of the launch window and beyond.

What went wrong was that they made a product for which there really isn't any market. People don't want a high end, expensive dedicated handheld. The market for dedicated handhelds as a whole is shrinking, let alone that for one like the Vita. It's a product flawed in its very conception.

 

[DaBoss]

I don't understand where the problem is. Wii U was the second best selling console last week.

Come on Chris, Road already pointed that out.

But hooray, Chris is back.

 

[Aostia]

Too soon to say that, honestly.

I honestly can't see any reason why it would become able to sell more than 4 millions in Japan LTD. And knowing the struggles Nintendo always has with third party support, I really thing that it could at maximum become a Nintendo box (satisfying, just to clarify my position on the system: I'm not trolling in any way possible): good amount of good sellers from Nintendo.
To become this, N should be able to increase the weekly sales of the HW and put on the market a good amount of satisfying softwares able to register good attach ratio.
Similar to the GC back in the days.
More than this to me seems like a delusional dream.

 

[Metallix87]

Once again, to reach Gamecube lifetime, Kart, 3D World, and Smash will have to sell around 5 million pieces of hardware EACH off of their own backs because third parties won't be showing up and theyre undoubtedly the only big console games Nintendo produce that pulls crowds. Do you think thats feasible? I don't.

I absolutely do think it's feasible, and doable. Nintendo just needs to market the device better, and actually release the damn games. Plus, you forgot one big system seller that Nintendo still has, even if it's one that many of us would like to ignore: Wii Sports.

 

[Aostia]

I absolutely do think it's feasible, and doable. Nintendo just needs to market the device better, and actually release the damn games. Plus, you forgot one big system seller that Nintendo still has, even if it's one that many of us would like to ignore: Wii Sports.

Just to clarify: I didn't mean "they'll retire it from the market", with "dead system".
read my previous post.
It will also increase its weekly average sales (it would be weird not to do it, considering how N abandoned the system on the market without promotion and support after the lauch. that was indeed positive, btw, considering the first weeks on the market)
but it will not be able to reach a turning point, becoming an "hot item"
I think about something similar to the last quarter of Vita's behaviour on the market, for example

 

[Metallix87]

I don't think it'll become a hot item, but I do think it ends up surpassing the Gamecube's Japanese LTD, so long as Nintendo continues to do what needs to be done to rectify the situation moving forward.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

Once again, to reach Gamecube lifetime, Kart, 3D World, and Smash will have to sell around 5 million pieces of hardware EACH off of their own backs because third parties won't be showing up and theyre undoubtedly the only big console games Nintendo produce that pulls crowds. Do you think thats feasible? I don't.

Is that how you actually think video game sales work? That games are released in some kind of bubble?

 

[marc^o^]

you forgot one big system seller that Nintendo still has, even if it's one that many of us would like to ignore: Wii Sports.

Donkey Kong Returns sold 5 millions on Wii as of april 2011. I don't have more recent figures, but people certainly like their Donkey Kong.

Wii Party U and WiiFit U have a lot of potential to be supportive titles for parents/decision makers, that seal the deal with Mario 3D World, Donkey or Zelda requested by their kids.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

I don't think it'll become a hot item, but I do think it ends up surpassing the Gamecube's Japanese LTD, so long as Nintendo continues to do what needs to be done to rectify the situation moving forward.

You are really being optimistic here.

It was easy to churn out games on Gamecube because it wasn't HD and looking at Pikimin 3, i don't think Nintendo is still ready for swift HD development. You won't be seeing Nintendo titles for a long while. The question is whether Wii U will survive until the end of 2014. Unless there is a price cut, it is going to continue selling bomba numbers.

GameCube had a pretty amazing and diverse software line-up from Nintendo, it also enjoyed third party support but it still ended up selling what? 20-22 million units. Not really a impressive figure.

 

[Metallix87]

Donkey Kong Returns sold 5 millions on Wii as of april 2011. I don't have more recent figures, but people certainly like their Donkey Kong.

Wii Party U and WiiFit U have a lot of potential to be supportive titles for parents/decision makers, that seal the deal with Mario 3D World, Donkey or Zelda requested by their kids.

What does that have to do with Wii Sports?

 

[marc^o^]

What does that have to do with Wii Sports?

Donkey Kong = a 2013 system seller, when Wii Sports has not been announced yet?

 

[ILoveBish]

I don't understand where the problem is. Wii U was the second best selling console last week.

I tip my hat to you, sir.

 

[Metallix87]

You are really being optimistic here.

Not really. Gamecube sold 4.04 million units in Japan. I think surpassing that is doable, with the right releases, aggressive pricing, and aggressive marketing, and I fully expect Nintendo to go above and beyond to make sure the Wii U isn't a total disaster, despite it's disastrous start out of the gate.

Donkey Kong = a 2013 system seller, when Wii Sports has not been announced yet?

I'm not seeing your point? My point was that he said that Nintendo had no more system selling franchises, and I said that they did, with Wii Sports being my primary example.

 

[michaelius]

Are we really going to base the entire life of the Wii U on seven months of no releases, then the first release being from one of Nintendo's lesser-selling franchises?

If Mario 3D, Donkey Kong, and Mario Kart meet similar results, then we can call the system dead. Pikmin 3, while likely an amazing game, was never going to be a major system seller, and the fate of the system should not be tied to it's performance.

Well yes - it shows consumer apathy toward device when strong sales impulse is ignored by market and results in only a moderate boost.

There was game selling 90-100k which is rather big for Japan first week sales.
There was advertising for Pikmin and Wii U first time in months
There was Luigi expansion for 2D Mario - 3DS Luigi game sold amazingly well so there should be plenty of fans

And all of that supported by new SKU - and all you got was <20k increase in sales.

If you put this together with total consumer apathy toward 3rd party software when anything is released it's quite clear people are simply not that interested. And Wii U < Gamecube curve is clear sign even Nintendo fans don't care too much.

 

[Metallix87]

I guess it all boils down to this: How much do you think the system should have sold courtesy of Pikmin 3? It seems obvious, to me, that it's not a system seller at all.

 

[marc^o^]

I'm not seeing your point? My point was that he said that Nintendo had no more system selling franchises, and I said that they did, with Wii Sports being my primary example.

Don't see any contradiction in what I said, my point being Wii Sports is not the only system seller Nintendo has among its 40 or so franchises.

 

[Metallix87]

Don't see any contradiction in what I said, my point being Wii Sports is not the only system seller Nintendo has among its 40 or so franchises.

I know, but I had already mentioned Donkey Kong, so I fail to see what your point was.

 

[Pie and Beans]

Is that how you actually think video game sales work? That games are released in some kind of bubble?

On a Nintendo console with no third party support beyond 2013, and with the same old franchises lined up? Yes. This isn't like other consoles where the amassed players arrive and decide that after GTA, MGS, Final Fantasy, Halo, Gran Turismo, COD and more release, people jump on board. With a Nintendo console, its always going to be one of their biggies that is the push, and these days thats Kart and Smash. Theres no RE4 situation on its way here either.

I also think anyone espousing Wii Sports as a solution and big seller perhaps hasn't paid attention to Nintendogs and Cats and Brain Training these days.

 

[NZer]

Funny, the thing this thread made clear to me was just how bad the ps3 started. Amazing that it slowly turned that around.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

On a Nintendo console with no third party support beyond 2013, and with the same old franchises lined up? Yes. This isn't like other consoles where the amassed players arrive and decide that after GTA, MGS, Final Fantasy, COD and more release, people jump on board. With a Nintendo console, its always going to be one of their biggies that is the push, and these days thats Kart and Smash. Theres no RE4 situation on its way here either.

I also think anyone espousing Wii Sports as a solution and big seller perhaps hasn't paid attention to Nintendogs and Cats and Brain Training these days.

Your post seemed to indicate that you think those three titles would need to push 5 million hardware, independent of what else is on the platforn. There are not three different consoles, each with one big "system seller" game. There is one console with all three of those games. These are very different things. Games don't exist in a bubble.

 

[SmokyDave]

Don't see any contradiction in what I said, my point being Wii Sports is not the only system seller Nintendo has among its 40 or so franchises.

Wii Sports was a system seller for the Wii. It ain't gonna happen again because the novelty buzz dissipated long, long ago.

 

[Scum]

I think the same, but aren't Nintendo fanatical about company loyalty? I understand that but maybe let NoA and NoE run the wage-bitch mills.

EDIT: or kind of what you said. I understand why NCL is so careful and select about who it hires and works with, but I don't get why the western branches can't get their own studios for the thankless work every platform holder needs people to do.

NCL have been all too comfortable running the entirety of Nintendo from Japan HQ. They need NoA and NoE to chip in nowadays, whether NCL likes it or not. I'm sure Shibata and Reggie are more than capable if they were running the wage bill.

Theyre all working in Ubisoft sweatshops making the next 4 Assasins creed games

The sad thing is, as funny as this may seem, it's probably true. I'm sure NCL could find some to help with HD remakes of their IPs.

They need more than HD remakes. I agree though, Nintendo needs to drastically increase the number of development teams it has under its belt. It cannot rely on third party developers, and it cannot allow huge stretches of time with no game releases.

Third parties will be gone from the WiiU by the end of the year, I reckon. Having their own teams chucking out these remakes will be so much better than the crappy schedule that NCL has right now.

There's a very solid reason why Nintendo avoids making HD remakes. Their games aren't story based so releasing HD version would be remainding people how little have changed.

So the only ones that qualify are Zelda , Operation rainfall trio, Wii Fire Emblem and maybe some more smaller series.

 

[Chris1964]

Plus, you forgot one big system seller that Nintendo still has, even if it's one that many of us would like to ignore: Wii Sports.

Wii Sports is not a big seller on Wii U.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Funny, the thing this thread made clear to me was just how bad the ps3 started. Amazing that it slowly turned that around.

It also cost Sony Billions of dollars. Something that Nintendo is not going to risk.

 

[pieatorium]

Your post seemed to indicate that you think those three titles would need to push 5 million hardware, independent of what else is on the platforn. There are not three different consoles, each with one big "system seller" game. There is one console with all three of those games. These are very different things. Games don't exist in a bubble.

Thats not what his post was about, he proposed all of those games would need to sell 5 million copies individually as software worldwide for the hardware to do gamecube level sales

 

[Metallix87]

Wii Sports is not a big seller on Wii U.

How do you know that when Wii Sports hasn't even been announced for the Wii U (yet)?

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

Thats not what his post was about, he proposed all of those games would need to sell 5 million copies individually as software worldwide for the hardware to do gamecube level sales

I think you're the one misinterpreting his post. 5 million software sales =/= 5 million hardware sales, as Pikmin 3 has kindly demonstrated for us.

 

[Pie and Beans]

Your post seemed to indicate that you think those three titles would need to push 5 million hardware, independent of what else is on the platforn. There are not three different consoles, each with one big "system seller" game. There is one console with all three of those games. These are very different things. Games don't exist in a bubble.

Thats also the point as well though. The 5 million people that buy into hardware on a Mario Kart, are pretty likely to be a huge percentage of the same people that would be going to buy Smash.

When people say "wait til ____", they are assuming that game is going to kickstart shit into the stratosphere through meteoric sales. When we lay it out that their heavy hitters are going to have to push 5 mill hardware uptake each to reach Gamecube while the rest of the library picks up the week to week slack, people should really beginning to realise just where this console is headed definitively.

 

[Nibel]

How do you know that when Wii Sports hasn't even been announced for the Wii U (yet)?

Don't give Nintendo any ideas

The Wii Sports phenomenon was lightning in a bottle, and they can't count on the IP to save Wii U - Wii Fit U and Wii Party U will probably bomb

 

[Metallix87]

Don't give Nintendo any ideas

The Wii Sports phenomenon was lightning in a bottle, and they can't count on the IP to save Wii U - Wii Fit U and Wii Party U will probably bomb

It's an option worth exploring regardless. The franchise was a mega hit, and personally, I'd be interested to see how Nintendo utilizes the Game Pad for it.

 

[pieatorium]

nvm im tired and cantread

 

[marc^o^]

Wii Sports was a system seller for the Wii. It ain't gonna happen again because the novelty buzz dissipated long, long ago.

Wii Sports Resort sold 32 millons. People have fond memories of this franchise from my observation. If Nintendo makes a worthwhile sequel, it will be a system seller: this franchise recognition still is a major asset.

 

[Scum]

Don't give Nintendo any ideas

The Wii Sports phenomenon was lightning in a bottle, and they can't count on the IP to save Wii U - Wii Fit U and Wii Party U will probably bomb

Yep, and I reckon someone at NCL knows this too. Maybe that's why it's taken so long to come out. :lol

 

[Scum]

Wii Sports Resort sold 32 millons. People have fond memories of this franchise from my observation. If Nintendo makes a worthwhile sequel, it will be a system seller: this franchise recognition still is a major asset.

Wii Sports U will fail miserably. Unless it becomes NIntendo Sports Online with Miiverse Community integration much like Mario Kart 7.

 

[marc^o^]

Wii Sports U will fail miserably.

Or it will succeed tremendously. Or anything in between. Because seriously, who knows with what we know of the game/release date?

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

Thats also the point as well though. The 5 million people that buy into hardware on a Mario Kart, are pretty likely to be a huge percentage of the same people that would be going to buy Smash.

When people say "wait til ____", they are assuming that game is going to kickstart shit into the stratosphere through meteoric sales. When we lay it out that their heavy hitters are going to have to push 5 mill hardware uptake each to reach Gamecube while the rest of the library picks up the week to week slack, people should really beginning to realise just where this console is headed definitively.

I think you're misunderstanding my point. A console with just, for example, Super Mario 3D World looks very different to consumers when compared to one with Super Mario 3D World, Mario Kart 8, Donkey Kong, and other announced games.

I think when people say "wait for", most probably don't think it'll reach "meteoric levels" (that is just hyperbolic straw man on your part). It's that we have a very recent example of those games - specifically Mario Kart and 3D World - jumpstarting the 3DS (which of course was never selling as bad but had a price cut), partuclarly in Japan. It shouldn't be shocking to assume the same games might have a similar effect (and Wii U doesn't even need to sell like the 3DS to achieve GameCube sales)

 

[Metallix87]

Wii Sports U will fail miserably. Unless it becomes NIntendo Sports Online with Miiverse Community integration much like Mario Kart 7.

Well, it would definitely have Miiverse Community integration, but I have no idea what "Nintendo Sports" means, exactly. It won't get a name change. They'll call it either Wii Sports U or Wii Sports Online.

 

[Scum]

Well, it would definitely have Miiverse Community integration, but I have no idea what "Nintendo Sports" means, exactly. It won't get a name change. They'll call it either Wii Sports U or Wii Sports Online.

I don't like the idea of having to name the console by a letter, but "Wii" needs to be disassociated with the console as soon as. Which is why I say Wii [anything] U will fail miserably and mentioned the name change to Nintendo Sports Online, or perhaps something more appropriate.

 

[Metallix87]

I don't like the idea of having to name the console by a letter, but "Wii" needs to be associated with the console as soon as. Which is why I say Wii [anything] U will fail miserably and mentioned the name change to Nintendo Sports Online, or perhaps something more appropriate.

No chance of that happening. It might get it as a subtitle, with the goal to eventually phase out the title, but if and when a Wii Sports game is released on Wii U, it'll definitely have "Wii Sports" in the name.