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Media Create Sales: Week 34, 2015 (Aug 17 - Aug 23)

PREDICTION LEAGUE SEPTEMBER 2015

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Aug 31 to Sep 27):
[PS4] Hardware (28 days) - 81,000
[PS4] Metal Gear Solid V (26 days) - 392,000
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid V (26 days) - 212,000
[WIU] Super Mario Maker (18 days) - 214,000
[3DS] Monster Hunter Diary: Felyne Village DX (18 days) - 163,000
[3DS] Pokémon Super Mystery Dungeon (11 days) - 276,000
 
sörine;176959793 said:
The complete failure of secondary hunting games on PS4 also makes me wonder where those franchises will eventually migrate. It was a little surprising no one followed the genre king to 3DS this generation, although I get the sense Sony had a heavy hand in that behind closed doors. As Vita winds down will things like God Eater, Toukiden and Phantasy Star try to jump to NX? Go mobile? Stick it out on PS4? Or will these series just end and see the creators move to something else?

This will be interesting to watch. It is worth noticing that FFEX, which was not a great game, sold close to 300k units on 3DS, counting eShop sales as well. I could have seen a 3DS AA hunting action game selling on par with GE on PSP.

I'm not sure Black and White 2 would have been DS games in 2012 if it was Nintendo's choice.

Pokémon Emerald was released a few months before the DS; Pokémon Crystal a few months before the GBA. Nintendo always want to squeeze the current-gen Pokémon fanbase because there are a lot of kids which are typically late-adopters.

3DS never had shortage of big games. Having the next mainline MH game announced and the exclusive MH3 expansion released within 6-9 months of the launch of the system is incredible. Few systems have that early support.

NX needs to improve on the amount of smaller releases (100-300k) and with the Vita gone in one year or so it certainly can do it.

3DS did have a shortage of games during the first months after launch, until November. From March 2011 to November 2011, best-selling 3DS third party games were One Piece (300k units - most of which sold later on), Resident Evil The Mercenaries 3D and Tales of the Abyss (both around 140-150k units). Of course the future line-up was promising but at that time PSP was having 90% of the support.
 

Oregano

Member
I don't think the local market can afford that. If certain parties can trip over themselves to save/support the Vita/PS4 for Sony, they can do it for the 3DS replacement.

Right but I think developers view the two families differently due to the strength of Nintendo's software. Third party developers don't build audiences on Nintendo platforms because that's Nintendo's job.

Nintendo's third party problems in a nutshell folks

sörine;176959793 said:
The situation in 2012 isn't the situation today, and the results from Black/White 2 could also provide an argument for not lingering in last gen too long. Besides, going cross-gen mitigates any real risk for GF in jumping in too early. They get to take advantage of the giant 3DS base but also corner early NX adopters and have a safe release to start transitioning their core base over with.

I wouldn't be surprised if Capcom, Level 5 and Square Enix were all also thinking along those lines.


The complete failure of secondary hunting games on PS4 also makes me wonder where those franchises will eventually migrate. It was a little surprising no one followed the genre king to 3DS this generation, although I get the sense Sony had a heavy hand in that behind closed doors. As Vita winds down will things like God Eater, Toukiden and Phantasy Star try to jump to NX? Go mobile? Stick it out on PS4? Or will these series just end and see the creators move to something else?

That is a good point. BW2 didn't do too great. Maybe the game wouldn't run like crap as well(who am I kidding?).

The Hunting Genre question is an interesting one. I think they clearly planned on transitioning to PS4 and God Eater Resurrection is still on there. Also isn't Attack on Titan being billed as a Hunting Action game and is a primarily PS4 game?
 

DrWong

Member
Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Aug 31 to Sep 27):

[PS4] Hardware (28 days) - 107K
[PS4] Metal Gear Solid V (26 days) - 399K
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid V (26 days) - 255K
[WIU] Super Mario Maker (18 days) - 220K
[3DS] Monster Hunter Diary: Felyne Village DX (18 days) - 170K
[3DS] Pokémon Super Mystery Dungeon (11 days) - 199K
 
Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Aug 31 to Sep 27):

[PS4] Hardware (28 days) - 110k
[PS4] Metal Gear Solid V (26 days) - 400k
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid V (26 days) - 200k
[WIU] Super Mario Maker (18 days) - 280k
[3DS] Monster Hunter Diary: Felyne Village DX (18 days) - 150k
[3DS] Pokémon Super Mystery Dungeon (11 days) - 250k
 

horuhe

Member
PREDICTION LEAGUE SEPTEMBER 2015

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Aug 31 to Sep 27):

[PS4] Hardware (28 days) - 93.462
[PS4] Metal Gear Solid V (26 days) - 464.776
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid V (26 days) - 211.209
[WIU] Super Mario Maker (18 days) - 206.045
[3DS] Monster Hunter Diary: Felyne Village DX (18 days) - 191.825
[3DS] Pokémon Super Mystery Dungeon (11 days) - 241.278
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Predictions

[PS4] Hardware (28 days) - 98.765
[PS4] Metal Gear Solid V (26 days) - 432.109
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid V (26 days) - 234.567
[WIU] Super Mario Maker (18 days) - 210.987
[3DS] Monster Hunter Diary: Felyne Village DX (18 days) - 123.456
[3DS] Pokémon Super Mystery Dungeon (11 days) - 321.098
 

Orgen

Member
PREDICTION LEAGUE SEPTEMBER 2015

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Aug 31 to Sep 27):
[PS4] Hardware (28 days) - 86.000
[PS4] Metal Gear Solid V (26 days) - 411.000
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid V (26 days) - 233.000
[WIU] Super Mario Maker (18 days) - 235.000
[3DS] Monster Hunter Diary: Felyne Village DX (18 days) - 176.000
[3DS] Pokémon Super Mystery Dungeon (11 days) - 218.000​
 

Wiggy

Member
COMG Weekly ranking:

Index Period: August 24 to August 30, 2015 2015

  1. 3DS] Dragon Quest VIII - 1094pt
  2. [PS4] Dragons Dogma Online Limited Edition - 84pt
  3. [3DS] Yokai watch Busters white dog Corps - 66pt
  4. [WiiU] Splatoon - 53pt
  5. [PS4] UntilDawn - 53Pt
  6. [3DS] Yokai watch Busters Akaneko-dan - 48pt
  7. [3DS] Super Robot Wars BX - 46Pt
  8. [3DS] Animal Crossing Happy Home Designer (Soft Only) - 42Pt
  9. [PS3] Dragons Dogma Online Limited Edition - 36pt
  10. [Vita] Main Craft: PlayStation Vita Edition - 32Pt
  11. [3DS] NES Remix Best Choice - 32pt
  12. [3DS] rhythm heaven The Best + - 30pt
  13. [3DS] Shiatorizumu Dragon Quest - 26pt
  14. [3DS] Animal Crossing Happy Home Designer Nintendo 3DS NFC reader / writer set - 21pt
  15. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 11pt
  16. [WiiU] Super Smash Bros. for WiiU - 8pt
  17. [PS3] Main Craft (English) - 8pt
  18. [3DS] GIRLS MODE 3 Glitter ☆ Corde - 8pt
  19. [Vita] Sunflower -Pebble in the SKY - 7Pt
  20. [Vita] Taiko Drum Master V version - 7pt
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
[3DS] Dragon Quest VIII - 1094pt
o_O

[WiiU] Splatoon - 53pt
NOTHING STOP THIS SQUID!!!!!!!!!! :D :D :D

[PS4] UntilDawn - 53Pt
That's... ok. better than i expect. not bad, i believe...
 
For the last year or so the plan for Sony has been for the Vita to be successful enough to get games that can be released on PS4, but not that successful that it renders a possible multi PS4/PSV release useless. When PS4 gains some tracktion third parties will drop the system fast. Mid-2016 and beyond I bet.

Sony doesn't want the Vita to grow outside of its niche because it would compete with the potential success of the PS4 in Japan.

Maybe the PRE-TGS conference will prove me wrong with a redesign and a price drop but what's more likely is that this will be a repeat of last year. A PS4 focused show with trailers of games announcing only a PS4 version and then 5 minutes later we will discover that these will be coming to Vita too.
Being brutally honest, I see it way more likely to hear Sony at TGS announcing Vita production is discontinued due to strategic reasons ("following plans to restructure the division, new rapidly-changing market directions, focus on PlayStation® long-time domestic strength, ambassador program to get you on board on a future-proof, market-leading PS4, Sony's word on working with 3rd party partners upcoming software releases being adapted to PS4...." yadda yadda PR writes itself) than any kind of new push be it HW and/or 1st party SW wise.
 

FluxWaveZ

Member
Being brutally honest, I see it way more likely to hear Sony at TGS announcing Vita production is discontinued due to strategic reasons ("following plans to restructure the division, new rapidly-changing market directions, focus on PlayStation® long-time domestic strength, ambassador program to get you on board on a future-proof, market-leading PS4, Sony's word on working with 3rd party partners upcoming software releases being adapted to PS4...." yadda yadda PR writes itself) than any kind of new push be it HW and/or 1st party SW wise.

That sounds just as unlikely, if not more so.
 

beril

Member
I am rolling with the assumption that it's a handheld in which case a downport of a UE4 version might (EDIT:)not be possible. Also we are talking about the publisher and franchise which released these games on the 3DS:



Publishers have also been fine with upporting PSP games to Vita and PS3 games to PS4 and it doesn't rule out graphical upgrades.

The NX version is of DQXI pretty much guaranteed to be the PS4 game.

Regardless of how powerful the NX is; the UE4 game is bound to be a lot more scalable and easier to port than the 3DS version, which seems very much tailored to the system, and as long as the NX is even slightly more powerful than the 3DS a downport should be possible.

And the announcement only makes sense if it's the PS4 version. The 3DS installbase is big enough to support DQXI on it's own, PS4 is not, so they're making that version cross platform. Also the overlap between 3DS owners and NX owners is bound to be bigger than PS4-NX, so that way they're giving as many people as possibly the option to buy either, or both versions, rather than just giving Nintendo owners the choice of an upressed 3DS game.

I'm personally much more interested in the 3DS game though.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Hatsune Miku: Project Diva X confirmed. PS4/Vita
They're back to the spread release of F
Vita SKU: March 2016
PS4 SKU: Fall 2016

Possible that they saw what happened with sales of F2 coming from F, and they thought it would be better to go back to the different releases for both versions.

One thing that also stuck out to me here is that the trailer is of the Vita version. They used PS3 footage for advertising Diva F 2nd usually since the IQ improvements have a pretty notable impact on quality.

I wonder if they're actually planning anything to make the PS4 version look better than just running the Vita game in 1080p given the delay or if it's solely a business decision.
 
Being brutally honest, I see it way more likely to hear Sony at TGS announcing Vita production is discontinued due to strategic reasons ("following plans to restructure the division, new rapidly-changing market directions, focus on PlayStation® long-time domestic strength, ambassador program to get you on board on a future-proof, market-leading PS4, Sony's word on working with 3rd party partners upcoming software releases being adapted to PS4...." yadda yadda PR writes itself) than any kind of new push be it HW and/or 1st party SW wise.

What the hell did I just read? I mean I guess it could happen but it would be asinine.
 

sense

Member
One thing that also stuck out to me here is that the trailer is of the Vita version. They used PS3 footage for advertising Diva F 2nd usually since the IQ improvements have a pretty notable impact on quality.

I wonder if they're actually planning anything to make the PS4 version look better than just running the Vita game in 1080p given the delay or if it's solely a business decision.
i think most likely the ps4 version will have morpheus support which will probably release in the fall in japan. it was demoed in vr somewhere recently like at e3 or china
 

FluxWaveZ

Member
i think most likely the ps4 version will have morpheus support which will probably release in the fall in japan. it was demoed in vr somewhere recently like at e3 or china

The VR Miku project will also be shown off at Magical Mirai next week.
 

hiska-kun

Member
Tsutaya's Ranking Week 35 2015

01./00. [3DS] Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King <RPG> (Square Enix)
02./02. [3DS] Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer <ETC> (Nintendo)
03./03. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch Busters: White Dog Squad <ACT> (Level 5)
04./04. [WIU] Splatoon <ACT> (Nintendo)
05./00. [PS4] Until Dawn <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment)
06./00. [PS4] Dragon's Dogma Online <RPG> (Capcom)

07./01. [3DS] Super Robot Wars BX <SLG> (Bandai Namco Games)
08./00. [3DS] Famicom Remix Best Choice <ETC> (Nintendo)
09./05. [3DS] Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer (NFC Reader / Writer Set) <ETC> (Nintendo)
10./07. [3DS] Rhythm Heaven: The Best+ <ACT> (Nintendo)
11./08. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch Busters: Red Cat Team <ACT> (Level 5)
12./06. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition <ADV> (Mojang AB)
13./00. [PS3] Dragon's Dogma Online <RPG> (Capcom)
14./12. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate [Best Price!] <ACT> (Capcom)
15./10. [PSV] Taiko no Tatsujin: V Version <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games)
16./14. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf <ETC> (Nintendo)
17./09. [PSV] Luminous Arc: Infinity <SLG> (Marvelous)
18./16. [3DS] Great Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney - Naruhodou Ryuunosuke no Bouken <ADV> (Capcom)
19./00. [PS4] Dishonored: Definitive Edition <RPG> (Bethesda Softworks)
20./13. [PS3] Sengoku Basara 4: Sumeragi <ACT> (Capcom)
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
I began the move of Media Create threads before the last month into the Sales Archive forum, which I had previously asked for community input on a few weeks ago. Three or four years have been moved. I tried to leave any non-weekly summary threads that I thought Chris or Road or others might need to update in the future since you can't edit or reply in the archive forums. I think mid-2015 back to 2011 is moved.

Thread posters if you need to go back and edit or reply to anything that's in the archive, please PM me, Nirolak, or duckroll or any other mod and we'll help you out.

Thanks.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Those YSO predictions for MGSV are pretty good, imho, and significant for PS4, PS3-to-4 transition and Japanese home consoel market as a whole, imho.

The road to TGS is shaping up very Sony-oriented, as it has been for awhile (I think the last time it was more oriented toward Nintendo was for the announcement of NMH2 for the Wii, maybe). I don't know why but Nintendo seems always not-so-supported around this period/event (I'm talking about DS/3DS, because the Wii U ISN'T supported, ditto).

Few weeks ago I tried to listed all the recent announcements for 3DS, because I was surprised by the number and the importance of those games, coming end '15/'16, for such an "old" console, while the road to TGS cut the 3DS announcement going toward the PS environment (shifting toward PS4/Vita games, it seems).

I don't know if there is a reason for that, like Nintendo ditching the TGS by himself, or 3DS shorter timings from announcements to release, or the "incoming" NX announcement that somehow "anticipated" the 3DS new games from April (L5 event) to July, passing through the E3.

Or maybe Nirolak deliberately faked the road to TGBS dates to cut the 3DS games off!!! cospiracy!!! ;p
 
3DS got plenty of announcements prior the E3, and furthermore some games might come outside the radar because they target children or a female audience (and therefore they don't get much attention over here) but eventually sell quite well. On a yearly basis, Aikatsu by Namco is a consistent 120k+ seller on 3DS, for example, but it is hardly mentioned - Aikatsu! My No. 1 Stage was announced at the end of June and will be released on 3DS in November.

I didn't follow the way how games for the Road to TGS were chosen though :)
 
I still feel like L5 should try to exploit the IP with a new mainline entry on 3DS; something like Modern Life or Space Life. Keep the sequel on mobile to exploit F2P monetization technique, and advance the IP in some manner on dedicated devices.
 

L~A

Member
Fixed.

And GF ain't ditching the 3DS install base for next year's mainline installment.

That'd be quite hard for GF to ditch the 3DS even before its successor even comes out.

***

Next mainline entry is most definitely the third version of XY, all the signs point to that. Since teasing has already started, a reveal before the end of the year is 100% guaranteed (next month is my guess), which means a release during 1st Half is inevitable.

And it's unlikely the 3DS successor will come out during the first half of 2016, not without all those high profile games announced for that period, so I doubt there'll be any cross platforms shenanigans.

Besides, I really don't think you can use BW or BW2 to determine anything.

BW came out in 2010, a year before the 3DS. There was no way the game was going to be delayed for six months just for the 3DS with how tight the whole marketing machine is (games / movies / series / etc...). Besides, that huge userbase was nothing to sneeze at, and I really doubt GFwould have been able to make something satisfactory on 3DS (on a technical level).

X and Y are already suffering from "technical issues" on 3DS, so just imagine what it would have been like 3 years earlier. Would have been a distrous way to start the new gen.

For B2W2, it came out on DS for two reasons:

1) the first game on the 3DS wasn't going to be the usual "third" version. Each gen always started with a brand new game on a brand new platform (exception of Black and White). And BW wasn't going to be denied the usual 3rd entry just because of the 3DS.
2) again, big userbase on DS.

This time around, everything is different, and the whole gen transition works just fine for Pokémon. Next hanheld will be launched sometime next year (seconf half seems the most likely).

We should get:

- first half of 2016: Pokémon Z or whatever it's called.
- 2017 (October or something): new gen in time for the first full Christmas of the new handheld. Also, not expecting a cross-gen game at all (even for Z), because Pokémon is a true system-seller so Nintendo will not want to dilute its sales potential for a dead platform. Besides, the 3DS was no sale juggernaut like the DS, so software sales are bound to drop faster than the DS (which wasn't doing to hot near the end).

TLDR: BW and BW2 came out on DS because the gen transition wasn't favouring a 3DS game. Things are quite different this time around.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I asked for submissions before I started the list, but apparently people didn't care to complain until now. Probably didn't fit well with their agendas. ¯\_(&#12484;)_/¯

If people want to submit them in a non asinine fashion, I'll include them in the next update.
 
I do wonder why 7th Dragon III and Taiko Wii U are really the only major Nintendo-related Road to TGS news we've had. This wouldn't be an issue if Nintendo would revive their Fall Conferences where they announce like a dozen games.

Even if we get another Direct, it feels like that would only yield a couple at most, and after their awful E3 showing, hope seems lost on that end, like if they had stuff to show, they would've (then again Pokken, no reason whatsoever to hold back that announcement...).

And a lot of key 3DS 3rd-party folks have NOTHING lined up for 3DS. Where's Atlus' lot? Marvelous? Atlus have nothing aside from maybe Etrian Odyssey 5, but their absence of a platform mention is puzzling if it was always meant to be 3DS. But IMO, they need to take a break from the series on 3DS, I personally think EO4, EOU, EMD, and EO2U are enough. :p

Bandai Namco are also empty on 3DS games for 2016, and honestly the only two notable games coming up on 3DS IMO are Project X Zone 2 and Disney Magic Castle 2.
 
I asked for submissions before I started the list, but apparently people didn't care to complain until now. Probably didn't fit well with their agendas. ¯\_(&#12484;)_/¯

If people want to submit them in a non asinine fashion, I'll include them in the next update.

To be fair, I think I was banned back then ;) I will contribute on the list in the future.
 

mao2

Member
am I wrong or this is not the first title switched to a November release ?

as usual the last two months are filled by a lot of titles, so the "bomba risk" is getting more and more plausible
Atelier Sophie was also delayed from September to November.
 

L~A

Member
am I wrong or this is not the first title switched to a November release ?

as usual the last two months are filled by a lot of titles, so the "bomba risk" is getting more and more plausible

You're right, I believe a couple of games getting delayed (including Atelier Sophie) and/or having a November release date announced recently.
 

sörine

Banned
I do wonder why 7th Dragon III and Taiko Wii U are really the only major Nintendo-related Road to TGS news we've had. This wouldn't be an issue if Nintendo would revive their Fall Conferences where they announce like a dozen games.

Even if we get another Direct, it feels like that would only yield a couple at most, and after their awful E3 showing, hope seems lost on that end, like if they had stuff to show, they would've (then again Pokken, no reason whatsoever to hold back that announcement...).

And a lot of key 3DS 3rd-party folks have NOTHING lined up for 3DS. Where's Atlus' lot? Marvelous? Atlus have nothing aside from maybe Etrian Odyssey 5, but their absence of a platform mention is puzzling if it was always meant to be 3DS. But IMO, they need to take a break from the series on 3DS, I personally think EO4, EOU, EMD, and EO2U are enough. :p

Bandai Namco are also empty on 3DS games for 2016, and honestly the only two notable games coming up on 3DS IMO are Project X Zone 2 and Disney Magic Castle 2.
I really think EOV will end up on NX. As for nothing on 3DS right now, I'm sure Atlus are busy enough as is trying to get two console JRPGs done before the year's over.

Marvelous idk? I figured we'd have gotten Rune Factory 5 by now?
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
I asked for submissions before I started the list, but apparently people didn't care to complain until now. Probably didn't fit well with their agendas. ¯\_(&#12484;)_/¯

If people want to submit them in a non asinine fashion, I'll include them in the next update.

I was just jokin' with my "cospiracy" post :\
 
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