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[bluedawgs]

MGSV sells on par with previous entries, but is now the best the console has to offer in terms of sales by a country mile. That wasn't the case even on the PS3. How is it not sad?

MGS 4 was the best selling PS3 game until Final Fantasy 13 or Resident Evil 5 came out so it's the same exact situation. Unless you mean MGS V is the highest any game will sell in Japan for the entirety of the generation, which of course is wrong.

 

[Pennywise83]

It had one at launch. A Layton exclusive game was still a big release back in 2011.

For comparison, ~4 years after the launch of the system no third party publisher have released a franchise that big on Vita. Closest were God Eater 2 and FFX, but shared with another system.

Layton was big back then; problem is, it was the right franchise at the wrong moment (as Nintendogs was) because the platform was expensive and therefore lacking a causal audience (which, I'm pretty sure, was a sizeable part of the sales on DS). After Layton, and before Monster Hunter, there wasn't such a big third party support (not even Nintendo's).

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

MGSV sells on par with previous entries, but is now the best the console has to offer in terms of sales by a country mile. That wasn't the case even on the PS3. How is it not sad?

MGS4 was PS3's 3rd best selling game, the other two being RE and FF, both of which have not released on PS4 yet.

 

[duckroll]

Man, I thought MGS4 came out after FFXIII. Lol. It's been too many years.

 

[Ōkami]

Biggest opening weeks of the generation so far, only counting home consoles.

1. [WIU] Mario Kart 8: 350.749
2. [PS4] Knack: 322.083
3. [PS4] Dragon Quest Heroes: 255.292
4. [WIU] Super Smash Bros. for Wii U: 244.747
5. [WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U: 170.563
6. [WIU] Splatoon: 156.610
7. [PS4] Bloodborne: 150.245
8. [WIU] Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate: 110.149
9. [WIU]Super Mario 3D World: 106.967
10. [WIU] Pikmin 3: 102.188

TPP should open on par with Mario Kart 8.

 

[Wiggy]

YSO predictions

Week 36, 2015 (Aug 31 - Sep 6)

[PS4] Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain < 350k
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain < 150k

Not surprising considering the COMG pre orders, Konami seems to have done a good job peaking interest right around release (I imagine reviews helped as well).

 

[Nirolak]

Man, I thought MGS4 came out after FFXIII. Lol. It's been too many years.

But technically only one traditional mainline entry ago for each!

 

[duckroll]

But technically only one traditional mainline entry ago for each!

Some would say... FFXIV is more traditional than FFXV!

 

[Oregano]

It depends. Portings of multi-million sellers might accelerate the transition rate. 3DS didn't have a big third party release untile Monster Hunter 3G in December, almost a year after launch.



I kept reading this story but which games got actually cancelled because of 3DS initial poor sales? Most of them were cancelled because of external reasons, see Mega Man Legends, Chocobo Legends or DJ Hero. Furthermore, many games (One Piece, Tales of the Abyss, Dead or Alive) were delayed because of the March 2011 earthquake.

There were at least a few. Off the top of my head Natsume delayed some games and Sega delayed Crush 3D due to low 3DS sales.

 

[sense]

Road to TGS™.

not sure if it doesn't fit the criteria but World of Final Fantasy for ps4/vita is missing considering the release date is tentatively spring 2016 if i remember correctly

 

[kuroneko0509]

not sure if it doesn't fit the criteria but World of Final Fantasy for ps4/vita is missing considering the release date is tentatively spring 2016 if i remember correctly

it was announced during e3

 

[Nirolak]

Considering how many games got delayed and/or cancelled early in the 3DS' life and how developers handled the Vita/PS4 transitions I think it's a pretty plausible (& horrible) scenario.

It'll have some smaller exclusives and probably pick up a few Vita games but nothing massive.

Just to make sure we're on the same page here, your prediction for what the early games on the NX will look like, a system so far only billed as a 2016 home console (though I think we both expect it to also be a handheld), is this (simulated larger size):

---

not sure if it doesn't fit the criteria but World of Final Fantasy for ps4/vita is missing considering the release date is tentatively spring 2016 if i remember correctly

I excluded anything announced at E3 or earlier.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

500k is not good for MGS? I honestly expected less.

 

[Serenity]

MGSV sells on par with previous entries, but is now the best the console has to offer in terms of sales by a country mile. That wasn't the case even on the PS3. How is it not sad?

Did it really I only seem to remember RE5 and FF13 doing better on Ps3. Are you saying the MGSV is going to be the best selling game ever on Ps4?

Just doesn't seem like a big indictment that the biggest game released for Ps4 so far would also end up being the biggest selling.

 

[Oregano]

Just to make sure we're on the same page here, your prediction for what the early games on the NX will look like, a system so far only billed as a 2016 home console (though I think we both expect it to also be a handheld), is this (simulated larger size):



---



I excluded anything announced at E3 or earlier.

I am rolling with the assumption that it's a handheld in which case a downport of a UE4 version might (EDITnot be possible. Also we are talking about the publisher and franchise which released these games on the 3DS:

Publishers have also been fine with upporting PSP games to Vita and PS3 games to PS4 and it doesn't rule out graphical upgrades.

 

[sörine]

It had one at launch. A Layton exclusive game was still a big release back in 2011.

For comparison, ~4 years after the launch of the system no third party publisher have released a franchise that big on Vita. Closest were God Eater 2 and FFX, but shared with another system.

Layton 5's cautionary tale is partly why I expect publishers to hedge their bets and try cross-gen next time in the beginning. I think Layton 5 would've sold much better had it been DS/3DS multi.

I also wonder if Nintendo might try this route too with the next Pokémon? Perhaps splitting versions across platforms like they did with the first PMD?

There were at least a few. Off the top of my head Natsume delayed some games and Sega delayed Crush 3D due to low 3DS sales.

Crush3D was a western effort though. We also saw the western localization of Tales of the Abyss pushed back for strategic reasons as another example.

In Japan we didn't see this really, at least not with games we knew about. Iwata did comment on the price drop being a reactionary move to keep developers invested in the system though so I'm sure there were some games behind the scenes that were impacted. The only possibly affected Natsume game I can think of is their Omega-Five port for Hudson, and that was more likely a casualty of fucKonami than anything.

 

[Spiegel]

Layton was big back then; problem is, it was the right franchise at the wrong moment (as Nintendogs was) because the platform was expensive and therefore lacking a causal audience (which, I'm pretty sure, was a sizeable part of the sales on DS). After Layton, and before Monster Hunter, there wasn't such a big third party support (not even Nintendo's).

3DS never had shortage of big games. Having the next mainline MH game announced and the exclusive MH3 expansion released within 6-9 months of the launch of the system is incredible. Few systems have that early support.

NX needs to improve on the amount of smaller releases (100-300k) and with the Vita gone in one year or so it certainly can do it.

 

[Nirolak]

I am rolling with the assumption that it's a handheld in which case a downport of a UE4 version might be possible. Also we are talking about the publisher and franchise which released these games on the 3DS:



Publishers have also been fine with upporting PSP games to Vita and PS3 games to PS4 and it doesn't rule out graphical upgrades.

I guess the difference in my assumption is that I feel those two (and Theatrhythm) were literally DS games that moved platforms mid development instead of someone actively choosing the vastly less technically impressive version of a game to port.

That said, I don't know what's in the system. It could be ancient.

 

[sörine]

3DS never had shortage of big games. Having the next mainline MH game announced and the exclusive MH3 expansion released within 7-10 months of the launch of the system is incredible. Few systems have that early support.

NX needs to improve on the amount of smaller releases (100-300k) and with the Vita gone in one year or so it certainly can do it.

Sort of but there was this weird window after spring and before the holidays that was oddly empty in 2011. I remember Senran Kagura's surprise success being partially attributed to perfectly timing it's release here and taking advantage of the 3DS pricecut. Of course that could also be the regular post-launch drought most systems go though, even DS had one.

 

[Oregano]

Layton 5's cautionary tale is partly why I expect publishers to hedge their bets and try cross-gen next time in the beginning. I think Layton 5 would've sold much better had it been DS/3DS multi.

I also wonder if Nintendo might try this route too with the next Pokémon? Perhaps splitting versions across platforms like they did with the first PMD?


Crush3D was a western effort though. We also saw the western localization of Tales of the Abyss pushed back for strategic reasons as another example.

In Japan we didn't see this really, at least not with games we knew about. Iwata did comment on the price drop being a reactionary move to keep developers invested in the system though so I'm sure there were some games behind the scenes that were impacted. The only possibly affected Natsume game I can think of is their Omega-Five port for Hudson, and that was more likely a casualty of fucKonami than anything.

The issue with Pokémon is that they have to get The Pokémon Company and Gamefreak to play along and that doesn't seem to be easy.

True it might not have been public in Japan but considering Iwata specifically comment on it I'm sure it was happening behind the scenes.

3DS never had shortage of big games. Having the next mainline MH game announced and the exclusive MH3 expansion released within 6-9 months of the launch of the system is incredible. Few systems have that early support.

NX needs to improve on the amount of smaller releases (100-300k) and with the Vita gone in one year or so it certainly can do it.

I'm not sure Vita will be gone any time soon, announcements haven't slowed down at all and software is still selling well.

I guess the difference in my assumption is that I feel those two (and Theatrhythm) were literally DS games that moved platforms mid development instead of someone actively choosing the vastly less technically impressive version of a game to port.

That said, I don't know what's in the system. It could be ancient.

That's definitely plausible but DQXI is a pretty unique case anyway so it's hard to say either way.

 

[Spiegel]

Sort of but there was this weird window after spring and before the holidays that was oddly empty in 2011. I remember Senran Kagura's surprise success being partially attributed to perfectly timing it's release here and taking advantage of the 3DS pricecut. Of course that could also be the regular post-launch drought most systems go though, even DS had one.

It's that. And even then 3DS owners got exclusive Resident Evil, Layton, Kingdom Hearts, Monster Hunter, Miku and IE games, to name some of the franchises released within 13 months of the launch of the system.

I'm not sure Vita will be gone any time soon, announcements haven't slowed down at all and software is still selling well.

Hardware is tanking slowly but surely with Sony doing nothing for a long time, and Vita owners are getting tired of buying the same DRPG games with anime girls released every month. It will catch up eventually

 

[Oregano]

It's that. And even then 3DS owners got exclusive Resident Evil, Layton, Kingdom Hearts, Monster Hunter, Miku and IE games, to name some of the franchises released within 13 months of the launch of the system.



Hardware is tanking slowly but surely with Sony doing nothing for a long time, and Vita owners are getting tired of buying the same DRPG games with anime girls released every month. It will catch up eventually

Right but it's got games like DQ Builders, DQ Heroes 2, Attack on Titan and God Eater Resurrection lined up as well as stuff like God Eater 3, Toukiden 2 and FFXII remaster presumably making an appearance.

It's also not impossible that Sony will release a hardware refresh, they do have a patent for one.

 

[Mpl90]

...what about some Vita/NX multi-releases for the first months, then? That seems a decent possibility to me.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

500k is not good for MGS? I honestly expected less.

THIS!!!!!!!!!!

At first i expect 500k PS3+PS4 ( 225k 3; 275k 4), but many people told me was too huge... at the end seem that i was close. Well, to be fair, i still underestimate PS4 version and overestimate PS3 version.

 

[cw_sasuke]

The issue with Pokémon is that they have to get The Pokémon Company and Gamefreak to play along and that doesn't seem to be easy.

Oregano, your statements when it comes to 3DS or NX 3rdparty support from JP publishers never fail to amaze me ;-)

But why would say that Nintendo coming to an agreement with GameFreak and TPC would be difficult when it comes to supported platforms ?

 

[Hero of Legend]

...what about some Vita/NX multi-releases for the first months, then? That seems a decent possibility to me.

That's obvious IMO, I mean the 3DS did get a few PSP games. One Piece: Romance Dawn and Digimon World: ReDigitize Decode being a couple, I'd expect Digimon World: Next Order to be one (would've guessed Cyber Sleuth but DW:NO was then announced so...).

Who's behind Next Order? Because Media.Vision aren't exactly known for making Nintendo platform games nowadays (just Revenge of King Piccolo and Wizard of Oz), where as Tri-Crecsendo has worked on many so Decode made a lot of sense, they also worked on Smash 4 no less!

I also wonder if we'll see PS360/PS4/XBO ports on the handheld front like Tales of Vesperia following up on Tales of the Abyss 3DS and depending on Sony's hold, Street Fighter 5 following SSFIV 3D Edition which sold extremely well (over 1.2 million worldwide).

 

[Oregano]

Oregano, your statements when it comes to 3DS or NX 3rdparty support from JP publishers never fail to amaze me ;-)

But why would say that Nintendo coming to an agreement with GameFreak and TPC would be difficult when it comes to supported platforms ?

The whole Black and White generation is a pretty big indicator that GF/TPC have no real interest in driving the install base for new handhelds. That's without mentioning stuff like Amiibo where Nintendo has evidently struggled to get TPC to play ball.

 

[Spiegel]

Right but it's got games like DQ Builders, DQ Heroes 2, Attack on Titan and God Eater Resurrection lined up as well as stuff like God Eater 3, Toukiden 2 and FFXII remaster presumably making an appearance.

It's also not impossible that Sony will release a hardware refresh, they do have a patent for one.

For the last year or so the plan for Sony has been for the Vita to be successful enough to get games that can be released on PS4, but not that successful that it renders a possible multi PS4/PSV release useless. When PS4 gains some tracktion third parties will drop the system fast. Mid-2016 and beyond I bet.

Sony doesn't want the Vita to grow outside of its niche because it would compete with the potential success of the PS4 in Japan.

Maybe the PRE-TGS conference will prove me wrong with a redesign and a price drop but what's more likely is that this will be a repeat of last year. A PS4 focused show with trailers of games announcing only a PS4 version and then 5 minutes later we will discover that these will be coming to Vita too.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Biggest opening weeks of the generation so far, only counting home consoles.

1. [WIU] Mario Kart 8: 350.749
2. [PS4] Knack: 322.083
3. [PS4] Dragon Quest Heroes: 255.292
4. [WIU] Super Smash Bros. for Wii U: 244.747
5. [WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U: 170.563
6. [WIU] Splatoon: 156.610
7. [PS4] Bloodborne: 150.245
8. [WIU] Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate: 110.149
9. [WIU]Super Mario 3D World: 106.967
10. [WIU] Pikmin 3: 102.188

TPP should open on par with Mario Kart 8.

Wow the numbers get low. But I guess only 2 consoles are essentially being counted

I wonder what's going to change it in the near future.
MGS, Mario Maker, CoD??, Pokken?
I'm assuming no for Animal crossing and star fox.

 

[frankie_baby]

Wow the numbers get low. But I guess only 2 consoles are essentially being counted

I wonder what's going to change it in the near future.
MGS, Mario Maker, CoD??, Pokken?
I'm assuming no for Animal crossing and star fox.

I could see animal crossing opening to a couple of hundred thousand if it is priced reasonably

 

[Oregano]

For the last year or so the plan for Sony has been for the Vita to be successful enough to get games that can be released on PS4, but not that successful that it renders a possible multi PS4/PSV release useless. When PS4 gains some tracktion third parties will drop the system fast. Mid-2016 and beyond I bet.

Sony doesn't want the Vita to grow outside of its niche because it would compete with the potential success of the PS4 in Japan.

Maybe the PRE-TGS conference will prove me wrong with a redesign and a price drop but what's more likely is that this will be a repeat of last year. A PS4 focused show with trailers of games announcing only a PS4 version and then 5 minutes later we will discover that these will be coming to Vita too.

I think the biggest roadblock is that games like God Eater and Toukiden bombed on PS4. Vita will remain more viable than PS4 for certain (big) releases so it won't lose relevance like that.

Back to your original point if developers plan on dropping Vita releases in favour of just PS4 then that actually bodes worse for NX because PS4 would pick up those mid-size releases instead.

 

[Ōkami]

I could see animal crossing opening to a couple of hundred thousand if it is priced reasonably

Not sure how or if that game will be tracked as its F2P.

People will essentially paying for the amiibos and the packaging.

 

[Chris1964]

The issue with Pokémon is that they have to get The Pokémon Company and Gamefreak to play along and that doesn't seem to be easy.

I think you deserve a tag for your continued predictions.

 

[Oregano]

I think you deserve a tag for your continued predictions.

Huh, I've made some wild ones in the past but that's probably not one of them. We've got a still relatively recent precedent that Pokémon would just stick to the existing/last gen system.

 

[Chris1964]

Pokemon will stick where Nintendo wants it to stick.

 

[Fdkn]

Sony doesn't decide what publishers put on Vita and it keeps getting announcements regularly. Even if hardware could collapse next year (or it could keep slow but steady declining) games won't stop coming for at least another year imo.

 

[BishopLamont]

If Splatoon had been released on Wii, it would have likely been a multi-million seller. While I liked the vast majority of Nintendo Wii games, it is clear they lost the momentum in not proposing a new "core" IP on the same vein.

yeah the end life wii and start life of wii u is pretty tragic

nintendo land was all they could come up with, im not sure how they expected the sales to keep up with just sequels

i understand that they had to give up on wii u early when it was obvious, but it's all on them how it performed in its early life

 

[Mory Dunz]

Not sure how or if that game will be tracked as its F2P.

People will essentially paying for the amiibos and the packaging.

I thought it was "free" but had a retail package with 3 amiibos or something

 

[Chris1964]

A major Japanese crossgen title with a 7:3 sales ratio favoring PS4? Is it finally happening?!

LTD split will be the important.

 

[Ōkami]

I thought it was "free" but had a retail package with 3 amiibos or something

To my understanding the game is a free download on the eshop, it just requires the amiibo to play.

For whatever reason there is also a retail release that indeed come with amiibos, but the price of the bundle is the price of the three amiibos, so as I said, whoever buys that is paying for the amiibos and not really the game.

 

[Oregano]

Pokemon will stick where Nintendo wants it to stick.

I'm not sure Black and White 2 would have been DS games in 2012 if it was Nintendo's choice.

 

[OfficerRaichu15]

Not sure how or if that game will be tracked as its F2P.

People will essentially paying for the amiibos and the packaging.

Could they track it like Dragon Dogma Online?

 

[Vena]

I think the biggest roadblock is that games like God Eater and Toukiden bombed on PS4. Vita will remain more viable than PS4 for certain (big) releases so it won't lose relevance like that.

Back to your original point if developers plan on dropping Vita releases in favour of just PS4 then that actually bodes worse for NX because PS4 would pick up those mid-size releases instead.

I don't think the local market can afford that. If certain parties can trip over themselves to save/support the Vita/PS4 for Sony, they can do it for the 3DS replacement.

 

[Jigorath]

Pokemon will stick where Game Freak wants it to stick.

Fixed.

And GF ain't ditching the 3DS install base for next year's mainline installment.

 

[FluxWaveZ]

PREDICTION LEAGUE SEPTEMBER 2015

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Aug 31 to Sep 27):

[PS4] Hardware (28 days) - 89,000
[PS4] Metal Gear Solid V (26 days) - 379,000
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid V (26 days) - 230,000
[WIU] Super Mario Maker (18 days) - 190,000
[3DS] Monster Hunter Diary: Felyne Village DX (18 days) - 200,000
[3DS] Pokémon Super Mystery Dungeon (11 days) - 212,000​

 

[BlowoverKing]

PREDICTION LEAGUE SEPTEMBER 2015

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Aug 31 to Sep 27):
[PS4] Hardware (28 days) - 129.000
[PS4] Metal Gear Solid V (26 days) - 420.000
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid V (26 days) - 210.000
[WIU] Super Mario Maker (18 days) - 212.000
[3DS] Monster Hunter Diary: Felyne Village DX (18 days) - 222.000
[3DS] Pokémon Super Mystery Dungeon (11 days) - 170.000

 

[sörine]

The whole Black and White generation is a pretty big indicator that GF/TPC have no real interest in driving the install base for new handhelds. That's without mentioning stuff like Amiibo where Nintendo has evidently struggled to get TPC to play ball.

The situation in 2012 isn't the situation today, and the results from Black/White 2 could also provide an argument for not lingering in last gen too long. Besides, going cross-gen mitigates any real risk for GF in jumping in too early. They get to take advantage of the giant 3DS base but also corner early NX adopters and have a safe release to start transitioning their core base over with.

I wouldn't be surprised if Capcom, Level 5 and Square Enix were all also thinking along those lines.

I think the biggest roadblock is that games like God Eater and Toukiden bombed on PS4. Vita will remain more viable than PS4 for certain (big) releases so it won't lose relevance like that.

The complete failure of secondary hunting games on PS4 also makes me wonder where those franchises will eventually migrate. It was a little surprising no one followed the genre king to 3DS this generation, although I get the sense Sony had a heavy hand in that behind closed doors. As Vita winds down will things like God Eater, Toukiden and Phantasy Star try to jump to NX? Go mobile? Stick it out on PS4? Or will these series just end and see the creators move to something else?

 

[Father_Brain]

If the best the NX can receive is up ports of sub-2007 hardware feature set portable games they're going to have a very, very sad generation ahead of them everywhere but Japan.

Given the current state of the market, I don't see much need for the qualifier.

But maybe they'll prove me wrong. You never know.

 

[Chris1964]

Fixed.

And GF ain't ditching the 3DS install base for next year's mainline installment.

Next year's mainline installment belongs to the same generation and the logical is to come to 3DS but since GF being completely independent is a very common statement lately what exactly is the evidence that GF decisions aren't Nintendo's decisions and can act against Nintendo's will.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

[PS4] Hardware (28 days) - 100,000
[PS4] Metal Gear Solid V (26 days) - 350,000
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid V (26 days) - 250,000
[WIU] Super Mario Maker (18 days) - 180,000
[3DS] Monster Hunter Diary: Felyne Village DX (18 days) - 100,000
[3DS] Pokémon Super Mystery Dungeon (11 days) - 120,000

Can i change those prediction right?