I don't remember any discussion like this for TPP and I doubt it ever happened. The only argument was between me and some other posters that MGSV will see a decline comparing to MGS4.
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Media Create Sales: Week 35, 2015 (Aug 24 - Aug 30)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
I don't remember any discussion like this for TPP and I doubt it ever happened. The only argument was between me and some other posters that MGSV will see a decline comparing to MGS4.
Exactly. Still waiting for the threads saying that TPP would sell less than 500.000 LTD
A lot of whisful thinking and some inventions in the last posts... hoping the new thread today brings new discussions to the table
And I'd say that the MGS4 to MGS5 hypotetical decrease would be a legit discussion, in a MC topic.
The only "pro PS4" discussion I could support is that until few months ago many of us expected a way more balanced split between PS3 and PS4, compared to what it could actually be (in PS4 favor)
Interesting to see all this talk about it´s doing better than expected talk, late last year and earlier this year there have been often posters pointing out that 2015 PS4 will be its year often touting the 1Q lineup. Games like Bloodbourne, DQH, Yakuzo 0, Final Fantasy Type 0, MGS5 among others were supposed to raise the weekly baseline considerably for the whole year, and even FFXV was supposed to be a late 2015 release, just to show how optimistic many were. But suddenly it´s supposed to have been the other way around and many expected PS4 to do worse than last year? Please ...
BishopLamont
Banned
im not trying to compare to the ps3/wii era, more just how ps consoles have sold in recent times, how they have more solid sales vs nintendo consoles which have much higher peak years, as third parties games are pretty much responsible these kind of trends.
im assuming by the time dqxi releases that the ps4 userbase will be sufficient enough that it won't hold back software sales for multiplatform games
im also assuming the 3ds will no longer be the defacto platform, as nx should be the main competition, so it is similar to the ps3 vs ps4 multiplatform games, 3ds being the ps3 in this case
not to say nx will be the biggest competition but it will be the new thing but ps4 will be the "younger" platform than the 3ds, i expect it to have the bigger software ratio, so giving the 3ds 50% of it is actually me being bias towards the 3ds
i really hope nx is a success, japan needs it and satoru iwata deserves it
There's no way PS4 having remotely close to 50% share for DQXI. Not even blind Sony fanboys believe this.
BishopLamont
Banned
2016, 2017, 2018, it doesn't make big difference. 30% for PS4 at best.
I'm 100% positive I had that discussion a month or two ago in one of the MC threads. I don't like quote mining other posters as I think that's kinda rude, but you're free to look up the previous MC threads if you think I'm making anything up.
I checked your posting history, nothing came up. Like I said before if there was such a conversation in these threads for super pessimist MGSV predictions I'd remember it.
All there is is this. Who are all these people with the <500k LTD?
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=170880056#post170880056
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Evidently they did raise the baseline so whatever your point is its invalid.
Furthermore, before Q1 this year there were people unsure if PS4 was going to be YOY so please Darius.
I responded to users that said that expectations were the exact opposite, therefore a decline, which wasn´t really the case. please understand my friend. Also to be more precise, expectations surely weren´t as modest as the actual mediocre sub 20k units we ended up seeing for quite some time now.
MatrixMan.EXE
Member
sörine;178053884 said:
What are you even talking about? 'Where a mainline FF game is no longer a multimillion seller' - There hasn't been any mainline FF games since FF XIII, save for FFXIV which was an MMO.
'And direct main sequels are no longer even million sellers' - You must have missed where I said that Final Fantasy XIII was a divisive game. A lot of people didn't like it in the end, so it's no wonder it's sequels didn't sell well. Aside from FFX-2, a sequel to a critically acclaimed game, what direct sequels are you even comparing this to? Either way, that's absolutely no indication of how well a future, well made mainline single player Final Fantasy game will sell.
Now, you're saying the FFX/X-2 HD remaster didn't do well because they didn't stack up to the DS remakes? Christ. Terrible comparison because they were remasters, not full blown remakes like the DS games, which is a much easier sell.
You're looking at sales without given them any sort of context. If Final Fantasy XV comes out, is actually a good game and still underperforms then I think we can conclude that yes, the franchise isn't in the best health, but right now you're really grasping at straws if you think sales of FFXIII-2, Lightning Returns and some remasters are an indictment on XV's sales potential. It just makes no sense to me.
There is a comment from on the page you linked saying 'less than Splatoon'. I agree, it's not a consensus opinion, but there are clearly some people who thought MGSV would debut lower than 500k.
That was the thread I was talking about.
Someone reads differently than what I do. That's exactly one person who wasn't aware there was a PS3 version in the end. There never was a widespread opinion for 500k LTD.
Now that we finished with this serious argument the blog gave PS4 hw hint.
edit: Wait a minute "debut lower than 500k"? Sure, who crazy would think of that.
Pennywise83
Banned
Yeah, if remakes have sold a million on average on 3DS we should expect XI to sell at least 2 million and there's no way the PS4 version is going to sell as much. It'll also be interesting to see when the two versions will be released because SQEX talked about a simultaneous release but plans might change.
MatrixMan.EXE
Member
2.3m for the 3DS SKU, and I expect the PS4 SKU to come in at 400-500k. LTD it may push to around 750k but doubt much more than that. Given the fact that the install base whenever this releases will barely be north of 2m if that, then I think that's the best we can expect.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
^^
About FF. Its hardly conclusive to say FF brand is in decline relative to the PS3 gen when the only games that have released are spin offs, remasters and an MMO even more so when the MMO is doing very well and FFXHD did very well. FF Type 0 HD also performing accordingly.
The biggest questions marks are when will FFXV release, what will the PS4 install base be at that time and will be received well.
I see you moving goalposts.
About FF. Its hardly conclusive to say FF brand is in decline relative to the PS3 gen when the only games that have released are spin offs, remasters and an MMO even more so when the MMO is doing very well and FFXHD did very well. FF Type 0 HD also performing accordingly.
The biggest questions marks are when will FFXV release, what will the PS4 install base be at that time and will be received well.
I see you moving goalposts.
I was referring to the hyperbolic posts about PS4 selling better than PS3 or the other way around with PS4 software, I never said everyone.
Last time I respond because there isn't any point continuing this. I don't know what PS3 and PS4 has to do now with TPP and everyone ended up to be no one.
test_account
XP-39C²
Did the same people say both those things? I know bluedawgs registered less than a month ago, so it couldnt be him at least.
I have to agree that in the past few pages there were some really awkward predictions on the low and also the high side. Especially when it comes to SQEXs output it will highly depend on when their games are actually meant to launch, we have only a little to no idea in the matter. About Splatoon, January will be a very crucial moment for how eventual legs will be, but as of right now +1million seems to be on lock, something that almost no one really expected in the first place-
More like you just misunderstood. Is it really that hard to admit?
More like you just misunderstood. Is it really that hard to admit?
My original post was about some people being hyperbolic about sales for both software and hardware on both sides, nothing more. TPP and PS4 are just recent examples.
Cheesecakebobby
Banned
So, Mario maker out tomorrow but anyone know what time the Japanese Wii U eshop updates?
You seem to have missed that after the poor performance of WiiU, there have been users that expected a rather quick surpassing of lifetime sales by PS4 also in Japan. But here we are almost two years later.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Are you talking about the PS4 install base ?
I mean i don't see DQXI coming anything soon so it should be more than that .
CaviarMeths
Member
My understanding of the situation (someone correct me if I'm wrong):
Right now Nintendo still has stock of Wii Us from 2 years ago, just sitting in a warehouse. Part of the reason why the Wii U is "making money" now is because the manufacturing cost of every unit being sold now was already written in previous financial results.
If Nintendo dropped the price, and by some act of God, actually managed to increase Wii U momentum, they'd be faced with two options.
1) Manufacture more stock to last them until the NX is ready for release.
2) Have no product to sell until the NX is ready for release.
Obviously, both of these options are going to cost them. The best option is (3) not drop the price and ride out sales until the NX. If they still have leftover stock when they have a new product ready for market, then they should drop the price, not sooner.
MatrixMan.EXE
Member
Yeah I don't expect the PS4 install base in Japan to be much higher than 2m, although that depends on when FFXV releases, and I guess, like you say, when DQXI itself actually releases. Either way I think setting an expectation of DQXI on PS4 at 400k-500k is reasonable, but I may even be low balling slightly.
I expect the 3DS version to debut at around 2-2.3m, if DQIX is any indication of things.
Edit: Just did a check and didn't realise PS4 was already at around the 1.7m mark. The install base might be pushing 3m by the time DQXI releases then, especially if we get a decent amount of content between now and whenever it comes out.
gundamkyoukai
Member
I was just about to tell you that PS4 will hit 2 million by year end but i see you check the numbers .
But yeah depending on when DQXI comes out PS4 could be 3 to 3.5 million .
Depending on if other software give it a okay push .
KillerMan91
Member
Eh. There are always people from both camps. Yes there probably were quite few Sony fans that thought PS4 is going to kill it this year (without any clear reason) and overtake WiiU but there really was also people that thought that after stacked Q1 PS4 is going to fall to same sales slump as last year because of summer drought (doing 6k weekly). GAF is no hivemind.
Felessan
Member
Where this is come from? PS4 already up 10% YoY and last year include launch numbers.
To increase by less than 5% PS4 should sell 16.3k consoles on average for the rest of the year, and this would be down 22% from average of this year. (It's actually the same average amount as PS4 sold in summer)
Even without pricecut this is highly improbable.
small44
Member
The Wii had amazing first 4 years then it had a free fall Year over Year,it was selling even faster then PS2 in it's first years but due to ps2 leg the Wii felt behind it,PS3 had less sharp Year over Year drop too
shinra-bansho
Member
So we're at the slap fight portion of the thread, before a new one comes along, where the only thing anyone can find to post about is trying to point out how much more correct one is than another nondescript unidentified GAF user that said something that turned out to be folly.
Good times.
Good times.
Mine:
PS4 Metal Gear Solid V - 315.000
PS3 Metal Gear Solid V - 187.000
3DS Dragon Quest VIII - 98.000
PS4 Hardware - 62.000
typical MC last pages pre-new-topic discussions
PS4 Metal Gear Solid V - 325.000
PS3 Metal Gear Solid V - 135.000
3DS Dragon Quest VIII - 100.000
PS4 Hardware - 55.000
Moor-Angol
Banned
I think you should have quoted the post affirming a 50% split between the two version, not the one that stated your same opinion
I think you should have quoted the post affirming a 50% split between the two version, not the one that stated your same opinion
:]
I think you should have quoted the post affirming a 50% split between the two version, not the one that stated your same opinion
This wouldn´t have made any sense considering the motivation.
BronzeWolf
Banned
is there any updated excel file with the weekly data available?
Or people use their own files?
Or people use their own files?
flaviusconstantius
Member
This strikes me as a somewhat senseless debate. Granted some opinions are more likely than others(moderate ones often are safer) we really do not know enough at this point to speculate about the PS4s final point.
For one thing we do not know how its longterm trajectory will appear. It is up 300% on a weekly basis now, and it is perfectly possible it settles in the 30K+ a week range next year, the PSP after all peaked late in Japan and early in the West. We also have no idea how long it will last, something that in all probability has far more to do with what Microsoft does than anything Nintendo attempts, given the latter's current irrelevance outside Japan.
This leads into another issue. The elephant in the room on Media Crate threads is the NX. Despite having almost no confirmed information, and only rumors regarding a concept, there is enormous faith presented here not just in the system's power but in its success. That is possible for market reasons in Japan, but it worth noting that the speculation about scaling suggests a system far more complicated than anything a video-game company has succeeded in launching. Historically, complicated systems have a really poor record in the industry, and Japanese companies in particular have a history of being really bad at OS design and support. Compare the ease with which Microsoft added BC, with the evident technological hassles Sony has with a feature-lite PS4 OS, Nintendo's account systems, and dreadful Virtual Console support. Theoretically a well-executed NX might be a half-mobile port machine capable of scaling multiple design engines, but it also might be a mess, a handheld which offers crippled UE support(like Unity on the Vita), and another under-powered home console, which due to a divided userbase, gets the former Vita/PS3 supports but continues to lack all Western support.
We may get an idea in the next few weeks(and a hint of one in the next ten minutes) but we are really in the realm of speculation about where the PS4 will be ltd.
For one thing we do not know how its longterm trajectory will appear. It is up 300% on a weekly basis now, and it is perfectly possible it settles in the 30K+ a week range next year, the PSP after all peaked late in Japan and early in the West. We also have no idea how long it will last, something that in all probability has far more to do with what Microsoft does than anything Nintendo attempts, given the latter's current irrelevance outside Japan.
This leads into another issue. The elephant in the room on Media Crate threads is the NX. Despite having almost no confirmed information, and only rumors regarding a concept, there is enormous faith presented here not just in the system's power but in its success. That is possible for market reasons in Japan, but it worth noting that the speculation about scaling suggests a system far more complicated than anything a video-game company has succeeded in launching. Historically, complicated systems have a really poor record in the industry, and Japanese companies in particular have a history of being really bad at OS design and support. Compare the ease with which Microsoft added BC, with the evident technological hassles Sony has with a feature-lite PS4 OS, Nintendo's account systems, and dreadful Virtual Console support. Theoretically a well-executed NX might be a half-mobile port machine capable of scaling multiple design engines, but it also might be a mess, a handheld which offers crippled UE support(like Unity on the Vita), and another under-powered home console, which due to a divided userbase, gets the former Vita/PS3 supports but continues to lack all Western support.
We may get an idea in the next few weeks(and a hint of one in the next ten minutes) but we are really in the realm of speculation about where the PS4 will be ltd.
theprodigy
Member
just start handing out bans
Pennywise83
Banned
Famitsu: http://famitsu.com/biz/ranking
MGSV PS4: 315.288
MGSV PS3: 157.605
DQVIII: 117.844 / 733.495
AC HHD: 27.002 / 1.022.945
Splatoon: 16.074 / 656.454
YW Busters: 39.641 / 1.400.223
PS4: 54.720
3DS: 27.409+2.613
PSV: 10.403
WIU: 10.197
PS3: 2.360
X1: 120
3DS is holding nicely affter Summer. YW Busters is basically constant wrt previous week (YW fading?). Splatoon below 20k for the first time ever. MGSV debut at about 470k units, consistent with previous releases.
MGSV PS4: 315.288
MGSV PS3: 157.605
DQVIII: 117.844 / 733.495
AC HHD: 27.002 / 1.022.945
Splatoon: 16.074 / 656.454
YW Busters: 39.641 / 1.400.223
PS4: 54.720
3DS: 27.409+2.613
PSV: 10.403
WIU: 10.197
PS3: 2.360
X1: 120
3DS is holding nicely affter Summer. YW Busters is basically constant wrt previous week (YW fading
?). Splatoon below 20k for the first time ever. MGSV debut at about 470k units, consistent with previous releases.