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Media Create Sales: Week 37, 2014 (Sep 08 - Sep 14)

and with that i bid you guys good night, its been fun and exhausting.

How it's selling compared to its competitors has nothing to do with saturation.

Take the 3DS and the Xbone for example. Let's say the potential market for 3DS is ~20m. That means roughly 75% of potential owners already have one.

Let's say the potential market for the xbone is 300k. That means roughly 10% of potential owners have one.

The 3DS is clearly more saturated, even though it still handily outsells the xbone weekly.

Unless you want to argue that a 3 year-old system is less saturated than a system that launched 2 weeks ago?

2014 YTD: 1.503.894
2013 YTD: 2.813.463
2012 YTD: 3.245.499
2011 YTD: 1.835.442

Just look at the sales curve, it's not that hard to figure out.
Yes but the potential market for the 3DS isn't 20m and the xbone's isn't 300k.

Breakout games can change a console's fortune drastically.

That list is just the natural cycle for consoles, all consoles eventually sell less and less, it doesn't mean its saturation, it just means you have to appeal to people that doesn't feel like your console warrants a purchase, saturation implies there's nothing more you can do to increase the appeal and sales, and thats rarely ever the case.

the xbone bombed spectacular, and its not gonna sell much through its lifetime, but does that mean its due to saturation? There's a huge difference between lack of appeal and saturation, lack of appeal can lead to saturation but saturation isn't always because of the lack of appeal.

for example, the more games the 3ds receives the faster it saturates, but at the same time its also increasing its appeal, so to that end, saturation isn't a big issue to the market leader, since it always has a bigger potential to increase appeal and decrease saturation through games, despite the fact that its capping out its potential buyers faster.

thats where the whole console sales momentum comes from, once you're in that dominant and safe spot, you're already selling well enough to offset any fear of saturation.

Nobody has said reaching saturation at 20 million devices sold is a bad thing. A bad thing would be reaching saturation when you have sold really few units. If next year we see a similar decline on Vita HW it won't be as good because it means it hasn't been able to become a mainstream machine as Sony initially expected, due to various reasons we already know.

Nintendo can stay for 1 or 2 years with declining hardware sales as long as the software sales remain healthy. They just need to pay attention to software trends in order to launch its successor before nobody gives a shit about the 3DS. Brand recognition, momentum and those things are important too.
I don't think its a bad thing, I just don't think its a big issue, at least not as big as other reasons concerning a consoles health and success.

Vita is gonna sell what it sells, i doubt Sony expects it as much as they hope it becomes more popular, but barring a break out hit, the Vita will also see a decline next year and the lack of notable software is the biggest reason.
 

Darius

Banned
Really don´t see the point in making the argument of saturation right now and it´s really weird that you are actually pointing at a system with the most potential in the next 2-3 years rather than more obvious and clearer choices.

3DS is by far the best selling system, in fact it´s outclassing every current console/handheld and its weekly performance likely also should compare quite well against PS2 back in the day. In fact I have never seen someone making such an argument for a system that was selling 30k-40k units weekly. Another reason is that depending on future software releases and launch date/announcement of the next gen systems there is a potential of selling 4m-6m 3DS systems from now, which at the least makes all this talk about saturation seem very premature.
 
Really don´t see the point in making the argument of saturation right now and it´s really weird that you are actually pointing at a system with the most potential in the next 2-3 years rather than more obvious and clearer choices.

3DS is by far the best selling system, in fact it´s outclassing every current console/handheld and its weekly performance likely also should compare quite well against PS2 back in the day. In fact I have never seen someone making such an argument for a system that was selling 30k-40k units weekly. Another reason is that depending on future software releases and launch date/announcement of the next gen systems there is a potential of selling 4m-6m 3DS systems from now, which at the least makes all this talk about saturation seem very premature.

Indeed.

3DS is now around 3 years and 7 months old, and it's well above 16m. PS2 was at 12-12.5m around the same time from launch, and was averaging around 30k units on a weekly basis.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
You didn't answer my question regarding W36.

I know I'm looking at these numbers in a cramped matter and haven't graphed them, but I don't think a million seller bumping HW sales WoW by 33% is a big impact. Maybe there will be a huge boost when n3DS launches (and seen as a big boost in Smash sales post n3DS). Regarding Yo-Kai Watch I originally said 3DS sales had been mediocre (compared to earlier years) despite Yo-Kai Watch 2.

I answered you many times before: Anticipation for a big title doesn't start the week it releases.

There is at least Phantasy Star Nova

This doesn't change what I said.
 
D

Deleted member 125677

Unconfirmed Member
I guess Capcom failed to attract young gamers because the game is too complex gameplay-wise, and not particularly appealing visually; now kids like Pokémon-like games; epic knights that can turn into robots... Not so much.

But are they decent games?
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Really don´t see the point in making the argument of saturation right now and it´s really weird that you are actually pointing at a system with the most potential in the next 2-3 years rather than more obvious and clearer choices.

3DS is by far the best selling system, in fact it´s outclassing every current console/handheld and its weekly performance likely also should compare quite well against PS2 back in the day. In fact I have never seen someone making such an argument for a system that was selling 30k-40k units weekly. Another reason is that depending on future software releases and launch date/announcement of the next gen systems there is a potential of selling 4m-6m 3DS systems from now, which at the least makes all this talk about saturation seem very premature.
If it sold better in the previous year, you will probably see the same arguement for another system.

Wouldnt it also be more premature to talk about the other system that are younger than the 3DS?
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
So...what else could Square port on Vita? They're bringing many of their mobile titles on the platform, and Agito+ only reinforces this trend.

Also, PS4 is going to have a pretty good Q1 release-wise, if BloodBourne and Type 0 HD (which, let's face it, is a bit like Advent Children back in 2009, given the FFXV demo) are just a part of the upcoming lineup.
 

Darius

Banned
If it sold better in the previous year, you will probably see the same arguement for another system.

Wouldnt it also be more premature to talk about the other system that are younger than the 3DS?

A decline is simply a decline, while stagnation is something much more severe more akin to having reached the maximum attach rate, which at this point is simply hyperbole in my opinion, looking at past weeks sales performances and especially last weeks sales performance despite the announcement of a new model, seeing how we´ll be looking at multimillions of system sold this year alone, and about further millions in the next few years.

If we assume 4m-6m from now on are reachable, we would talk about a sales volume of 25%-37% of its current lifetime sales.
 
So...what else could Square port on Vita? They're bringing many of their mobile titles on the platform, and Agito+ only reinforces this trend.

Also, PS4 is going to have a pretty good Q1 release-wise, if BloodBourne and Type 0 HD (which, let's face it, is a bit like Advent Children back in 2009, given the FFXV demo) are just a part of the upcoming lineup.

Wasn't DQ Heroes also Q1 (march)? Also Persona maybe. Pretty crazy Q1.
 

sörine

Banned
Nova could offset the FF or God eater boost ,vita tv had a good first week then it sell a little
How much more are secondary hunting games really going to boost Vita though? It's sort of like more Mario games on 3DS or Wii U, the market's already well established there.
 

zeromcd73

Member
I wonder what that unannounced game will that the SCEJA President mentioned that will help boost PS4 hardware sales this holiday season will be.
 

zeromcd73

Member
If it's what I've been told, then.. well, let's say: things will get interesting on GAF.
Excited, but seems a little strange unveiling a big game for the holiday season which is only 3 months away.

PS4 need s a holiday game in Japan, so it should hopefully be good :)
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
See Nibel, this is why we don't post things like that without sharing what things are.

The thread has been totally derailed.
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
I think it might be Pokken

Nintendo Betrayalton

I hate you Nibel :(
 

X05

Upside, inside out he's livin la vida loca, He'll push and pull you down, livin la vida loca
Biggest first week for Nintendo games since 1996 (excluding Pokemon):

1. 987,239 / 987,239 - [3DS] Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS {2014-09-13} (2 days)
2. 936,734 / 4,584,787 - [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii {2009-12-03} (4 days)
3. 865,024 / 6,428,457 - [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. {2006-05-25} (4 days)
4. 816,198 / 2,315,401 - [WII] Super Smash Bros. Brawl {2008-01-31} (4 days)
5. 721,786 / 4,171,720 - [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf {2012-11-08} (4 days)
6. 608,147 / 3,717,665 - [WII] Mario Kart Wii {2008-04-10} (4 days)
7. 451,932 / 2,306,431 - [3DS] Mario Kart 7 {2011-12-01} (4 days)
8. 430,185 / 2,290,720 - [3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 {2012-07-28} (2 days)
9. 416,124 / 5,082,322 - [NDS] Brain Age 2: More Training in Minutes a Day {2005-12-29} (4 days)
10. 411,025 / 1,657,909 - [3DS] Tomodachi Life {2013-04-18} (4 days)

Recent Western new IP first week:

137,378 - [PS3, PS4] Destiny {2014-09-11} (SCE)
129,983 - [PS3] The Last of Us {2013-06-20} (SCE) *1
104,690 - [PS3, PS4] Watch Dogs {2014-06-26} (Ubisoft)
93,518 - [PS3, 360] Red Dead Redemption {2010-10-07} (Take-Two Interactive)
93,183 - [WII] Just Dance Wii {2011-10-13} (Nintendo) *2
56,345 - [PS3, 360] L.A. Noire {2011-07-07} (Rockstar)
34,054 - [360] Assassin's Creed {2007-11-29} (Ubisoft)

*1: Sony is Japanese, but TLoU is essentially a Western game.
*2: Just Dance is a Western game, but it was adapted to Japanese music by Nintendo.

Famitsu sales.

---------------

Regarding the FFXV demo download code with FFT-0, looking forward to pictures of bomba bins overflowing with used copies of Type-0.
Thanks for that, was looking for it :)
Also, NSMB was really quite something else.

If it's what I've been told, then.. well, let's say: things will get interesting on GAF.
RE5 coming to X360?!
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
The other things we know is that it should be a SCEJA title, given the other thread. So, we should start thinking about SCEJA's possible candidates fitting the description.
 
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