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Media Create Sales: Week 38, 2015 (Sep 14 - Sep 20)

I knew you were, I was just saying that in general MHX would be the big one. :p

True, but Nintendo always had at least one big hitter for the holiday season: 2011 had Super Mario 3D Land and Mario Kart 7; 2012 had Animal Crossing: New Leaf; 2013 had Pokémon X/Y; 2014 had Pokémon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire. This year, the biggest Nintendo hitter was released in Jule (Happy Home Designer).
 
True, but Nintendo always had at least one big hitter for the holiday season: 2011 had Super Mario 3D Land and Mario Kart 7; 2012 had Animal Crossing: New Leaf; 2013 had Pokémon X/Y; 2014 had Pokémon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire. This year, the biggest Nintendo hitter was released in Jule (Happy Home Designer).

If I'm honest, Nintendo doesn't need one of their own, all they need to worry about is keeping 3DS sales high and Capcom and Level 5 are there to do that job for the moment, Nintendo needs to put their efforts on NX and making sure things are good to go for the console and handheld's launches.

Now if Capcom and Level 5 weren't around on 3DS, THEN Nintendo would've needed a big game for the holidays. :p
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Unless Nintendo or Level 5 surprises this will be a disappointing December for hw and sw. There aren't big hitters for any system.
 

Colombo

Member
While it's a little disappointing that Nintendo themselves don't have a big holiday game this holiday for 3DS, business wise it kind of makes sense to me. This years holiday game is not coming because it's resources are going towards the NX launch! Basically the future success of the NX is a bigger company priority than the 3DS now!
 
MHX will sell well but it'll hardly drive hw sales because it's targeted to existing userbase. The only title that might drive hw sales is AC:HHD because it might induce people to switch over N3DS systems - and holidays might be a good moment to do so - it's still an "old" game though when holidays come but we'll see.

As for Nintendo, perhaps they think Paper Mario & Luigi will sell really well. I still think an amiibo-centered Nintendo game, with all Nintenod characters, could have done well this year.
 
MHX will sell well but it'll hardly drive hw sales because it's targeted to existing userbase. The only title that might drive hw sales is AC:HHD because it might induce people to switch over N3DS systems - and holidays might be a good moment to do so - it's still an "old" game though when holidays come but we'll see.

As for Nintendo, perhaps they think Paper Mario & Luigi will sell really well. I still think an amiibo-centered Nintendo game, with all Nintenod characters, could have done well this year.
thats like saying pokemon omega/alpha won't drive sales though

does it really matter if it releases in november or december? effect on hardware will still be the same

sales will obviously be down compared to last year, but it'll be because of natural decline mainly, software support is pretty decent considering all the main franchises have already appeared

i hope mario & luigi paper picks up the slack, if theres one nintendo game or franchises i want to see do well and grow then it'd be this one

i think they're saving that all amiibo centred game for nx, 3ds is better served with main franchise games as it's a far safer bet and easier to develop on time

If I'm honest, Nintendo doesn't need one of their own, all they need to worry about is keeping 3DS sales high and Capcom and Level 5 are there to do that job for the moment, Nintendo needs to put their efforts on NX and making sure things are good to go for the console and handheld's launches.

Now if Capcom and Level 5 weren't around on 3DS, THEN Nintendo would've needed a big game for the holidays. :p
yeah nintendo could have obviously released another big title this holiday but they chose not to as NX is the far bigger priority

3ds' lineup is beefy enough to carry it for the next few months, especially with MH X expected to do pretty well by early next year
 

Mr Swine

Banned
I think Nintendo is focusing more on NX right now than 3DS and Wii U this holiday. They really need a solid launch for NX next year
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
not sure what ur trying to say, mh x will be there when december comes, so wats the problem?

I don't get it: Chris didn't say that MHX will sell bad, but he said that without particular surprises this year we will have a slower December than usual:

Nintendo (the biggest publisher in Japan, right?) isn't releasing any big hitter for the holidays (their last was Animal Crossing HHD weeks ago)
Level 5 isn't releasing any heavy hitter neither (they postponed YW3 to next year, without "covering" the void with other games)
There will be no new hardware release for the 3DS (unless they are hiding a Japanese launch for the 2DS, but...)
Monster Hunter X is a possible big hit, but it's still a "sequel" to a series that is already present on the console, so probably will not push the HW that much

compared to ohter previous years, the holiday period should be way less impacting in terms of total HW an SW sales.



Of course I'm talking about the 3DS alone, but just because it's pretty clear how it would have been the only relevant console in terms of "big numbers" in Japan this holiday.
 
YSO predictions

Week 40, 2015 (Sep 28 - Oct 4)

[PSV] Tokyo Xanadu < 90k (average 70k)
[PS3] Winning Eleven 2016 < 60k (average 45k)
[PS4] Winning Eleven 2016 < 60k (average 45k)
[PS3+PS4]Arslan: The Warriors of Legend < 50k (average 35k)

No prediction for Yoru no Nai Kuni?

Seems good for Tokyo Xanadu. Notably bigger than Ys, but still a ways off Sen no Kiseki.

Terrible for Arslan Warriors.

Utawarerumono: Itsuwari no Kamen sold over 100K copies in the first 5 days according to Naoya Shimokawa who is the president of Aquaplus.
https://twitter.com/AP_shimokawa/status/648403260093526016

Nice! Much better than the picture COMG/Tsutaya are painting.

420 PS2 Utawarerumono: Chiriyukusha he no Komori Uta 81,751 / 101,123
366 PSP Utawarerumono Portable 23,157 / 38,654
 

L~A

Member
Here' the big december game for the 3DS... Monster Strike, coming out on December 17th in Japan. 4500 Yen.

Source (Famitsu leaks, no scans)
 

horuhe

Member
You'll see the problem when December numbers come.

Well, despite I don't disagree with you, it's true that it's kinda difficult follow your arguments. Aostia almost explained your point, but I think it's a little bit exagerated.
Of course the end of this year won't be as important as others were. However, I can't see it being that bad.
We have some PS4 stuff, and 3DS hardware could make really good numbers. Splatoon and Mario Maker will help Wii U, etc. I mean, it's bad but not that bad.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Well, despite I don't disagree with you, it's true that it's kinda difficult follow your arguments. Aostia almost explained your point, but I think it's a little bit exagerated.
Of course the end of this year won't be as important as others were. However, I can't see it being that bad.
We have some PS4 stuff, and 3DS hardware could make really good numbers. Splatoon and Mario Maker will help Wii U, etc. I mean, it's bad but not that bad.

well honestly:

Xbone: lol
PS3: almost non-existent in terms of HW nowadays. can't see this change in the incoming holidays
PS4: many games were delayed, so I think there will be a bunch of Western games trying to pull its hw: the price cut is the most significant factor, btw, in the incoming holiday period, imho. can't see it putting the charts on fire, considering the actual sw situation.
Wii U: probably up YoY, thanks to Splatoon and SMM possibly better than last years' offer in terms of "new audience", but nothing spectacular (can't see it being able to repeat '13 holidays numbers)
Vita: seems on decline YoY and I don't know if there is something out there able to recover the system for the holidays.
3DS: probably the worst YoY holiday comparison incoming here, due to the launch of the NEW 3DS models last year, and the lack of brand new significant software (the paradox is that it seems that next year is better shaped despite it being its...6th? year on the market)

Every single console seems weaker than last/previous years for the incoming holiday season, for many (and different) reasons. There is the PS4 price cut and the Splatoon effect for the home segment, but seems still not so significant in Japan, honestly.

Software wise too, with the lack of big releases we are probably in to see also a missed opportunity in trying to exploit, for example, the advantages of a very solid/big/healthy install base (the 3DS one) especially during a period of the year that usually is favorable to that console. MH X will probably sell well, but still less than a main entry; Monster Strike imho is a very big question mark. Other games are old games, that probably will have legs, but being old and spinoffs can't compete with previous Decembers.

Lol
Just when I said that probably was delayed to early next year.

they read GAF, obviously, and noted how we underlined an opportunity there!

Here' the big december game for the 3DS... Monster Strike, coming out on December 17th in Japan. 4500 Yen.
Source (Famitsu leaks, no scans)

Very confused about the actual sales potential of this game, honestly. Looking at P&D (continues...)

Will it follow the same trajectory P&D had?

it debuted VERY well, and ended up with a huge LTD imho.
The "sequel" demostrated, on the other hand, that there was a lot of curiosity around this "experiment", that didn't last in the mouth of the consumer. Some IPs are better suited for mobile gaming (for many reason I can't explore here now), so I wonder what will prevail: Monster Strike success or "Mobile gaming on portable bad taste"?

In any case it will be probably the most interesting thing to observe in December sales-wise.
 
Here' the big december game for the 3DS... Monster Strike, coming out on December 17th in Japan. 4500 Yen.

Source (Famitsu leaks, no scans)

Hooray, something interesting to follow in December!

I know it's not going to sell gangbusters, but I'm also interested to see how the Gundam Boost game does on Vita. We had Gundam Breaker 2 last December and it sold okay, but had weirdly good legs for a Vita game into January.
 

L~A

Member
Lol

Just when I said that probably was delayed to early next year.

Yup, it's happened quite a few times in the past (not necessarily with you, though). Maybe you should have said the same about Star Fox Zero and it wouldn't have been delayed :p

Famitsu leaks on a Monday? That's strange.

Strange... nah. It's definitely unusual, but not unheard of.
 

L~A

Member
So apparently, there's a Spike-Chunsoft interview in Famitsu this week. Looked very briefly, so here's some interesting things I found (someone should definitely provided actual translations ;)):

- Shiren the Wanderer (PSV) successful
- Kenka Bancho 6 (3DS): a "little ("chotto") unsatisfactory
- something about VR (I skipped)
- focus on PS4 from now on. NX name drop. They'd like to start releasing stuff on Steam from now on.
- brand new game in development. They finally acknowledge Zero Escape 3.

More at the link.

Oops, should've checked if someone had posted before posting : /
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
So apparently, there's a Spike-Chunsoft interview in Famitsu this week. Looked very briefly, so here's some interesting things I found (someone should definitely provided actual translations ;)):

- Shiren the Wanderer (PSV) successful
- Kenka Bancho 6 (3DS): a "little ("chotto") unsatisfactory
- something about VR (I skipped)
- focus on PS4 from now on. NX name drop. They'd like to start releasing stuff on Steam from now on.
- brand new game in development. They finally acknowledge Zero Escape 3.

More at the link.

NX name drop? In what way? Like "we'll never ever develop for NX"? :p
Seriously though, I hope a good translation comes up soon enough.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Update on what P&D is making: https://twitter.com/serkantoto/status/648057750711201792

padrecent1qsns.png


So apparently, there's a Spike-Chunsoft interview in Famitsu this week. Looked very briefly, so here's some interesting things I found (someone should definitely provided actual translations ;)):

- Shiren the Wanderer (PSV) successful
- Kenka Bancho 6 (3DS): a "little ("chotto") unsatisfactory
- something about VR (I skipped)
- focus on PS4 from now on. NX name drop. They'd like to start releasing stuff on Steam from now on.
- brand new game in development. They finally acknowledge Zero Escape 3.

More at the link.

I would say Danganronpa and Zero Escape are probably the biggest financial opportunities on Steam, unless I'm forgetting something.

Adventure games pull up pretty strong numbers there.

Life is Strange is at 540K, Valiant Hearts at 400K, TWAU is 700K, Borderlands 200K before too many sales, TWD 1/2 are 1.75M/850K respectively but obviously that's a bit of an anomalous series.

It will be interesting to see if they do cross-platform PS4/NX titles given their comments.
 

sörine

Banned
What about Shiren or other MD games on Steam. Seems like there could be a good audience for a more user friendly roguelike?
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
sörine;180162124 said:
What about Shiren or other MD games on Steam. Seems like there could be a good audience for a more user friendly roguelike?
That's actually a great point now that you mention it. Roguelikes have very strong Steam sales.

Don't Starve: 2,813,320 ± 40,287
Isaac: 2,696,716 ± 39,452
Isaac Rebirth: 1,059,675 ± 24,809
Rogue Legacy: 1,100,174 ± 25,277
Dungeons of Deldrimor: 564,376 ± 18,123
Dungeons of the Endless: 300,909 ± 13,240
Necrodancer: 251,547 ± 12,106

Mind, a lot of these have been pretty cheap at one point or another, but still people are buying up to pretty high numbers.

Edit: I'm kind of astonished at how bad the genre tagging is on Steamspy. I realize it's a problem with the users, but adventure isn't even remotely accurate and I don't see Rogue-Like on the site.
 

Fisico

Member
Hooray, something interesting to follow in December!

I know it's not going to sell gangbusters, but I'm also interested to see how the Gundam Boost game does on Vita. We had Gundam Breaker 2 last December and it sold okay, but had weirdly good legs for a Vita game into January.

Nothing weird when you had the Gundam Build Fighters anime airing at the same time, the fact the series focus was on Gunpla most likely helped a lot considering Gundam Breaker is about customizing your mecha with parts from the Gundamverse (kinda like... a gunpla !).

I don't think the Extreme VS Vita will have as much legs, there will be a new anime series on TV but it does not look like it's aimed at a young audience at all, the same way the Extreme VS subseries isn't aimed at children too, though being an exclusive it could still sell more than the GB2 SKU.
 

Vena

Member
- Shiren the Wanderer (PSV) successful
- Kenka Bancho 6 (3DS): a "little ("chotto") unsatisfactory
- something about VR (I skipped)
- focus on PS4 from now on. NX name drop. They'd like to start releasing stuff on Steam from now on.
- brand new game in development. They finally acknowledge Zero Escape 3.

This is mostly as expected, surprised they'd talk of the NX, though, lol.

What do you mean? Illusory Revelations is surely going to be massive!?/s

Damn it, that's my joke!
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Since it was brought up a bit earlier, what's the idea behind combining M&L and paper Mario into an M&L game?

- is it a one off or a direction for the Franchise?

- sticker star sold better than dream team. Maybe they think PM stuff will increase sales of the M&L while Int Sys is busy with other stuff?

- from what I've seen the gsmeplay doesn't seem to have that many paper Mario elements so it seems more like a name drop/guest character than a combination of games.


Edit:
Orrrr
They wanted to make a new gsme for little money. They thought the audience would notice reused art assets for the first time in the series.
So they put in paper Mario to basically cover it up.
 
Since it was brought up a bit earlier, what's the idea behind combining M&L and paper Mario into an M&L game?

- is it a one off or a direction for the Franchise?

- sticker star sold better than dream team. Maybe they think PM stuff will increase sales of the M&L while Int Sys is busy with other stuff?

- from what I've seen the gsmeplay doesn't seem to have that many paper Mario elements so it seems more like a name drop/guest character than a combination of games.

Well, perhaps they realized it didn't make sense to have two RPG in the same IP (Mario) on the same platform, and they decided to make a cross-over. After all, Alphadream is a small team and Intelligent Systems should be busy in another projects and a cross-over might have minimized the effort.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Well, perhaps they realized it didn't make sense to have two RPG in the same IP (Mario) on the same platform, and they decided to make a cross-over. After all, Alphadream is a small team and Intelligent Systems should be busy in another projects and a cross-over might have minimized the effort.

Hey no one forced them to put it on the same console :)

sörine;180163022 said:
Hopefully IntSys is busy with Paper Mario 3 on Wii U/NX.

Hopefully.

And if they are going to continue to have them on the same console, stagger releases like every 2 years.

Not 6 months after each other. Way to kill your sales

Dream Team should've been delayed to Christmas or somrthing.
 

L~A

Member
NX name drop? In what way? Like "we'll never ever develop for NX"? :p
Seriously though, I hope a good translation comes up soon enough.

Leak summary reads like this:

&#12354;&#12392;&#12399;&#20219;&#22825;&#22530;&#12398;&#26032;&#12495;&#12540;&#12489;NX&#12290;

Literally: "Also, there's Nintendo's new console, the NX". He doesn't say more than that.

I would say Danganronpa and Zero Escape are probably the biggest financial opportunities on Steam, unless I'm forgetting something.

Adventure games pull up pretty strong numbers there.

Life is Strange is at 540K, Valiant Hearts at 400K, TWAU is 700K, Borderlands 200K before too many sales, TWD 1/2 are 1.75M/850K respectively but obviously that's a bit of an anomalous series.

It will be interesting to see if they do cross-platform PS4/NX titles given their comments.

Didn't the Danganronpa creator rule out Danganronpa, though?

And with how hard it was to get ZE3 in development... then again, maybe a PC version is what convinced them to try, but I believe it would have been announced at the same time. Besides, story is crucial, so that would mean porting also ZE2 at least.

Since it was brought up a bit earlier, what's the idea behind combining M&L and paper Mario into an M&L game?

- is it a one off or a direction for the Franchise?

- sticker star sold better than dream team. Maybe they think PM stuff will increase sales of the M&L while Int Sys is busy with other stuff?

- from what I've seen the gsmeplay doesn't seem to have that many paper Mario elements so it seems more like a name drop/guest character than a combination of games.


Edit:
Orrrr
They wanted to make a new gsme for little money. They thought the audience would notice reused art assets for the first time in the series.
So they put in paper Mario to basically cover it up.

You're reading too much into this, I think ;)

It's just a new Mario & Luigi, with a Paper Mario twist (Mega Luigi was the twist in the previous one).
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Didn't the Danganronpa creator rule out Danganronpa, though? And with how hard it was to get ZE3 in development... then again, maybe a PC version is what convinced them to try, but I believe it would have been announcement at the same time. Besides, story is crucial, so that would mean porting also ZE2 at least.
I'm only commenting from a business perspective since I know once you get to smaller Japanese companies, individual producers have lots of sway in terms of doing whatever they want or blocking certain things from happening.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Leak summary reads like this:

Literally: "Also, there's Nintendo's new console, the NX". He doesn't say more than that.

That summary, it seems like the NX name drop was...a bit casual. We need more than just the summary, I assume, because, put it that way (if it's really said while talking about PS4 and Steam support), it seems like they're hinting at NX support in the works. But probably it's just me :p

Oh, right, Steam support. Yeah, it sounds like a pretty good decision. If they're going to release new chapters of already established VN series, I suppose we'll see ports of older titles as well. It would be a good (secondary) place for rogue-like as well, by seeing the numbers Nirolak reported (of course, discounts influenced those numbers - especially specific titles -, but there's a good potential for a decent-size audience).
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
That summary, it seems like the NX name drop was...a bit casual. We need more than just the summary, I assume, because, put it that way (if it's really said while talking about PS4 and Steam support), it seems like they're hinting at NX support in the works. But probably it's just me :p

Oh, right, Steam support. Yeah, it sounds like a pretty good decision. If they're going to release new chapters of already established VN series, I suppose we'll see ports of older titles as well. It would be a good (secondary) place for rogue-like as well, by seeing the numbers Nirolak reported (of course, discounts influenced those numbers - especially specific titles -, but there's a good potential for a decent-size audience).

Beyond that I'm not sure what else they would be considering.

Well, obviously that cat game that looks like a clone of Terraria (over 6.5 million copies) is coming to PC, but I got the impression they meant multiple titles.

Exist Archive is a Tri-Ace game so I don't think they'd really be deciding platforms for that. Similarly while their games published by Namco could show up, that's most Namco's call.

Things like Kenka Bancho would also be a horrible fit IMO.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
You're reading too much into this, I think ;)

It's just a new Mario & Luigi, with a Paper Mario twist (Mega Luigi was the twist in the previous one).

Probably.
Well if it the game is cheaper is get a full fledged game out the door sooner, this was a smart idea. It'll be 2.5 years since dream team. And there's usually a lot more time between M&L games.


And paper bowser talks again.
 

casiopao

Member
Here' the big december game for the 3DS... Monster Strike, coming out on December 17th in Japan. 4500 Yen.

Source (Famitsu leaks, no scans)

DaDAMMMM.^_^

Will it follow the same trajectory P&D had?

Considering how popular Monster Strike right now, i can see it does as well as P&D Z.

Unless Nintendo or Level 5 surprises this will be a disappointing December for hw and sw. There aren't big hitters for any system.

I thought Youkai Watch Three Kingdom is coming this year? Now, lets hope some surprise title too for December.^_^...... wait when is Disney Magical Castle 2(Elsa Edition) is releasing here. Frozen is damn huge right now.^_^
 
Probably.
Well if it the game is cheaper is get a full fledged game out the door sooner, this was a smart idea. It'll be 2.5 years since dream team. And there's usually a lot more time between M&L games.


And paper bowser talks again.

You are overthinking this. The way Nintendo functions they probably thought of the idea, put a quick concept demo together and liked the direction and went with it. I don't think they are the type of company to sit there and plot out exactly when each entry in a series is going to appear beyond the "Hey, lets have one Mario Kart per system" approach.
 

Vena

Member
That summary, it seems like the NX name drop was...a bit casual. We need more than just the summary, I assume, because, put it that way (if it's really said while talking about PS4 and Steam support), it seems like they're hinting at NX support in the works. But probably it's just me :p

I wouldn't read too much into this from S-C. Of their developed games, the vast majority of titles not based on external products (EOMD, Pokemon MD) are Playstation titles or titles they seem to have a hard time acknowledging: ZE3. Otherwise they are fairly prolific in their platform choices, so we'll definitely see them on the NX one way or another but I would expect them to try and transition their own products to the PS4.

Now, how that ends up... only time will tell.

I'm still waiting on Disgaea 5's release in the states to see if the decision to make it a PS4 exclusive can be even remotely redeemed.
 
Here' the big december game for the 3DS... Monster Strike, coming out on December 17th in Japan. 4500 Yen.

Source (Famitsu leaks, no scans)

going to be interesting to see more information released about this

pretty hard to say how well it'll sell since we barely know anything about this game

though also interesting at its price point too

So apparently, there's a Spike-Chunsoft interview in Famitsu this week. Looked very briefly, so here's some interesting things I found (someone should definitely provided actual translations ;)):

- Shiren the Wanderer (PSV) successful
- Kenka Bancho 6 (3DS): a "little ("chotto") unsatisfactory
- something about VR (I skipped)
- focus on PS4 from now on. NX name drop. They'd like to start releasing stuff on Steam from now on.
- brand new game in development. They finally acknowledge Zero Escape 3.

More at the link.

Oops, should've checked if someone had posted before posting : /

huh, good to hear about Shiren on PSV
 

Kudo

Member
Holy smokes the comments on that Spike-Chunsoft interview link..
Good to see Console Wars are still lively as ever even in Japan?

Some people think the NX part is just lip service, while some think NX release will make PS4 "thing of the past" and they'll jump to NX then.
Who knows, but I got headache from reading the comments.
 
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