It depends of the game, for example the blogger is saying that 30% for Mario & Luigi RPG is decent (because it will keep selling), but 30% for Tokyo Clanpool is bad (because it will be frontloaded).
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It depends of the game, for example the blogger is saying that 30% for Mario & Luigi RPG is decent (because it will keep selling), but 30% for Tokyo Clanpool is bad (because it will be frontloaded).
ComG! preorders
Super mario odyssey surprise me, better than I thought, 20 units ahead of super mario land 3ds, i don't know if super mario odyssey will win vs super mario land 3ds but for now it's good, really, best day score (+6, pokémon US/UM +5, MH:W +3 http://www.comgnet.com/ranking/ ):
MARIO 3D
Super mario odyssey switch:
ComG! preorders(22 days left, no bundle included): 93 pt
Hardware: 2 million?
Super mario 3d world wii u:
ComG! preorders (last day): 66 pt
22 days left: -
First week (famitsu): 106.967
LTD: 613.693
Hardware: 1.173.014
Super mario 3d land 3ds:
ComG! preorders (last day): 262 pt
22 days left: 73 pt
First week: 344.698
LTD: 2.111.490
Hardware: 2.356.915
Super mario galaxy 2 wii:
ComG! preorders (last day): 313 pt
22 days left: 72 pt
First week: 337.569
LTD: 1.046.696
Hardware: 11.607.212
Super mario galaxy wii:
ComG! preorders (last day): 201 pt
22 days left: 43 pt
First week: 256.341
LTD: 1.025.664
Hardware: 3.725.999
Super mario sunshine gc:
First week: 280.610
LTD: 789.989
Hardware: 1.453.421
Super mario 64 n64:
First week: 162.111
LTD: 1.646.558
Hardware: 159.943
Best ComG! preorders: Super mario galaxy 2 wii
Best first week: Super mario 3d land 3ds
Best LTD: Super mario 3d land 3ds
I've no doubt that SMO will be the biggest launch of a 3D Mario game in Japan due to Switch demand and bundles. If the bundle is >50% of available Switch units for November it's going to be close to overtaking MK8D before December hits. While if it's >50% of available Switch units for December it will likely clear 1.5 million this year and be well on it's way to catch up to Super Mario 3D Land.
However if it's heavily bundled there will be a ton of used copies floating around after the holidays - so it likely will disappear completely from the charts until next Obon or Christmas. We are seeing the effect of heavily bundled games with Splatoon 2 - on COMG for example last week they sold more used copies than new and this will probably be the norm until used copies from the bundles are sold out.
Its going to be another underestimated Switch game on our annual prediction league - on average GAF predicted that it would sell 711K for 2017.
Are you "worried" about the LTD for the Q4 titles or just the Q4 sales? Let's see the battles (LTD):
Pokemon S&M vs Pokemon US&UM - S&M will win by a landside (let's hope US&UM can reach 2 million)
Yokai 3 Sukiyaki vs Yokai Busters 2 - Is Busters 2 two different SKU like the first one? I see Busters 2 selling 500.000 LTD so I think this battle is going to be close
Mario Party Rush Hour vs Mario Party the Top 100 - Top 100 is going to win
Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball Heroes vs Attack on Titan 2 - Another close one. I see Titan reaching 100.000 LTD even if you don't expect it.
Miitopia vs Girls Mode 4 - 3DS expected life could play against Girls Mode legs... but should be another close one.
Animal Crossing vs Kirby - This I don't know because I haven't been following the Kirby title and I don't know what to expect from it. 300.000 LTD could be too much or not?
Super Mario Maker 3DS vs Mario & Luigi RPG DX - Yep, another no contest. Let's see if M&L can sell more than 10% of Mario Maker's LTD.
The problem is third party games (MH Stories & Momotaro Densetsu) and of course a big Nintendo title like Mario Maker last year. But all in all not a bad holiday line up I'd say.
silpheed-mcd
Member
Because lotteries are stopped early, I think bic camera stops so early their lotteries because they know they will receive big quantities in the next few weeks, maybe I'm wrong, we'll see that soon.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Not really. Bamco just has a larger output of games (same with SE) and still a lot of them are predictably missing the SW.
Clear to you is very different from being evidently clear as well.
Isn't the bundle just a download code? Or is that just North America?
Are you "worried" about the LTD for the Q4 titles or just the Q4 sales? Let's see the battles (LTD):
Pokemon S&M vs Pokemon US&UM - S&M will win by a landside (let's hope US&UM can reach 2 million)
Yokai 3 Sukiyaki vs Yokai Busters 2 - Is Busters 2 two different SKU like the first one? I see Busters 2 selling 500.000 LTD so I think this battle is going to be close
Mario Party Rush Hour vs Mario Party the Top 100 - Top 100 is going to win
Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball Heroes vs Attack on Titan 2 - Another close one. I see Titan reaching 100.000 LTD even if you don't expect it.
Miitopia vs Girls Mode 4 - 3DS expected life could play against Girls Mode legs... but should be another close one.
Animal Crossing vs Kirby - This I don't know because I haven't been following the Kirby title and I don't know what to expect from it. 300.000 LTD could be too much or not?
Super Mario Maker 3DS vs Mario & Luigi RPG DX - Yep, another no contest. Let's see if M&L can sell more than 10% of Mario Maker's LTD.
The problem is third party games (MH Stories & Momotaro Densetsu) and of course a big Nintendo title like Mario Maker last year. But all in all not a bad holiday line up I'd say.
Q4 2016 (last known Famitsu numbers)
2016.10.08 Monster Hunter Stories - 330.576
2016.10.20 Mario Party: Star Rush - 188.795
2016.11.18 Pokemon Sun / Moon - 3.902.672
2016.11.23 Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo - 249.200
2016.12.01 Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS - 1.159.468
2016.12.08 Miitopia - 231.060
2016.12.15 Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki - 751.191
2016.12.15 Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball Heroes - 120.737
2016.12.22 Momotaro Dentetsu 2017: Tachiagare Nippon!! - 408.958
Q4 2017
2017.10.05 Mario & Luigi: Superstar Saga + Bowser's Minions - 100.000
2017.11.02 Style Savvy: Styling Star - 150.000
2017.11.17 Pokemon Ultra Moon / Ultra Moon - 2.000.000
2017.11.30 Kirby Battle Royale - 150.000
2017.11.30 Attack on Titan 2 - 50.000
2017.12.07 Yo-kai Watch Busters 2 - 300.000 (?)
2017.12.28 Mario Party: The Top 100 - 100.000
You can inflate numbers 50% for everything (except Pokemon) and still talk for a >50% drop.
silpheed-mcd
Member
Are your Q4 numbers LTD? If so there are some low predictions there... Are you counting digital? Hahaha
Yeah, there's going to be a drop of course but I'm pretty sure that no one expected a 3DS holiday line up for 2017 like the one we are having. And almost no one thought that 3DS could do more than 1.5m YTD (HW) and here we are...
Next year will see the biggest drop for 3DS, SW and HW wise.
https://twitter.com/nihonfalcom/status/916125714394447872
Falcom says that Sen III had the highest DL sales in the series history and the package version has sold over 100k copies
Falcom says that Sen III had the highest DL sales in the series history and the package version has sold over 100k copies
Laplasakos
Member
TheLegendaryN
Member
That's great!
BrokenJohnCena
Member
Just 2 million?I think its be better than that
This tweet was directed to this thread.
I would have agreed to lower end estimates a week ago, but with the recent trailer, Ultra Sun and Ultra Moon finally seem to have some genuine hype and positive buzz around them. Not sure how well this will translate in the long run, but if the reviews come back saying this is a genuinely different product, I could see it doing better than most 3rd versions.
This thread is last week, one would hope it could sell 10k more copies.
The tweet specifically says its weekly sales surpassed 100k tho
Jarod McChicken
Member
A higher digital sales rate is obvious considering Kiseki I & II were on PS3 & Vita, still it's nice to see Falcom reacting about the launch and being seemingly not so depressed about it. Who would have thought.
We have three trackers.
The wording isn't clear, this is week two of it's release. But either way, it's a minor 10k difference.
kuroneko0509
Member
it's 1st week since it specifically links famitsu in that tweet, not mc or dengeki
Laplasakos
Member
Did you checked the tweet at all? They even have a Famitsu ranking pic.
That's... a big non news lol.
They're basically just showing first week famitsu numbers and stating the obvious with the DL sales.
There are no comments about meeting expectations, if they're happy with the sales or anything else, just a bland PR tweet.
BrokenJohnCena
Member
Falcom Wars Part 2:Nihon Falcom twitter account strikes back
Same,I think it will do good,even though the lack of backward compatibility will hurt it a lot
http://www.level5.co.jp/news/20171006/
Level 5 delayed their Otome Yusha mobile game from Summer to WInter. Hopefully they will be able to put out an internally developed mobile game one day...
Timeline for this game: Announced last year for a 2016 Winter release -> delayed to Spring 2017 -> delayed to Summer 2017 -> delayed to Winter 2017
Level 5 delayed their Otome Yusha mobile game from Summer to WInter. Hopefully they will be able to put out an internally developed mobile game one day...
Timeline for this game: Announced last year for a 2016 Winter release -> delayed to Spring 2017 -> delayed to Summer 2017 -> delayed to Winter 2017
Ahh I see what their angle was.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
So an opening around 120k. Thats good. Should be set for 150k+ LTD.
encephalon
Member
Their highest digital sales yet don't mean the game is suddenly on track to hit 150k. Their highest digital sales yet could be 5k.
Someone correct me if we actually know what their digital sales were for previous titles. Edit: It looks like we do and I'm wrong? Maybe?
The fact that they haven't might be telling.
It's not about being happy or unhappy, they just stated facts already known, nothing more nothing less, it's not bringing any new information and there's nothing to debate about it.
Looking at past similar titles on PS4 CS3 is probably in the 10-15k ballpark for digital, previous CS were all way below 10k due to lower digital sales on PSV and especially PS3.
@encephalon : 6.1k first month for CS1, same ballpark for CS2 (famitsu digital estimates)
If there's too many units, setting up lotteries is not possible (too complicated). If there's no lotteries this week, just means stores are expected to get too big a shipment for lotteries to be viable.
Depends on the game, genre, platform, audience. Family-focused titles: sales focused on the week-end, so low Day 1 sell-through is ok. "Core"-oriented titles (like JRPG): sales focused on first days, so low sell-through: possibly bad news.
Hey, but they did. In July of this year, in fact. Unless Layton's Mystery Journey isn't internal?
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
PS4 usually has 10%+ digital in JP.
TheLegendaryN
Member
No, LMJ is developed internally. In fact, Otome Yusha is being developed by h.a.n.d.
Getting this from Level-5's website in the infographics at the bottom of the games' web pages.
http://www.layton.jp/mystery-journey/
http://www.otome-yusha.jp/
if they generally communicate that after a kiseki game comes out without a major milestone like 'most successful launch ever' then sure, it might be telling. i'm not actually sure, if they tend to and stopped with sen 3, i got too ahead of myself.
either way i doubt falcom feels obligated to relieve any consternation forum posters might have over this. just kinda funny to me that whether falcom breaks the silence or doesn't, there's a cynical reason for either
I think Level-5 would be better off canceling games and starting new ones instead of trying to constantly update their in development projects to modern mobile standards.
I guess it's possible they're trashing existing work on the products a la Layton 7 -> New Layton 7, which would effectively be the same, but the iterative delays make that seem less likely.
I guess it's possible they're trashing existing work on the products a la Layton 7 -> New Layton 7, which would effectively be the same, but the iterative delays make that seem less likely.
Jarod McChicken
Member
Sorry to insist but how is that tweet not indicative of being happy with the sales when the wording is, according to Gematsu translation :
If you're not at least quite happy with the sales of your product, you don't report about it at all usually. We also know via Famitsu and Dengeki that the game sold at least 80% of its shipment first week.
http://www.hand.co.jp/develop/ds/Haha got it the opposite way around. I knew they were involved somehow!
Hand definitely was definitely involved in the development of Lady Layton. They developed it together with Level 5.
No, h.a.n.d. did indeed work on LMJ. Theyve historically been contracted for a lot of Level 5s games like the previous 3DS Laytons and the Yokai Watch trilogy but often go uncredited as shadow devs. I guess theyre big enough now they can get some billing though.
With the mobile era, the balance of power shifted back toward independent developers and the strength of their own brands, especially since they often outperformed major publishers on mobile, so it makes sense that h.a.n.d. would really want credit for whatever they do, and that the people who work with them would allow that to happen.
That said, some still get pushed into the background, or only end up being listed on their own site.
TheLegendaryN
Member
My bad. Sorry. A bit shady that they aren't credited on the LMJ page tho, although that happens more often, I know.
lyrick
Member
The PR statement is simply focusing on the positive facts, It was the best selling title last week and it apparently had a larger margin of Download sales than previous entries.
They obviously don't want to showcase the sales drop-off from previous entries in a PR blurb, but trying to determine whether or not they are "quite happy" with the sales or if they hit internal targets is not possible by the tweet given.
encephalon
Member
So maybe 8-10k. Given that it appears some stores were sold out, it'll be interesting to see how well it does come the next media create thread.
Since when did ever PR said negative thing toward their product there.O_O
Even Capcom tried to spin all their flop title lol.