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Media Create Sales: Week 40, 2011 (Oct 03 - Oct 09)

TruePrime said:
I think Mario Kart 7 has a far higher chance of hitting 1 million by year end then Mario 3D.

As it is Mario 3D is still a Mario 3D game and while it's simpler I'm still not convinced that 3D Land will be able to capture the NSMB audience and Galaxy 1/2 didn't do a million in two months and seemed to have way more hype going into 1.
I don't think Mario 3D land will out perform its predecessors but I do think one advantage it has compared to prior 3D Marios(excluding 64) is that when it launches there isn't really any must have software. It seems most of these people buying the 3DS on hype don't seem to consider Zelda, Nintendogs, Layton, RE or SF as must have software. With hardware seliing as much as it is, I think 3D Land(for a month or so) benefit from being the only must have software available.
 

Dalthien

Member
TruePrime said:
I'm talking about overall numbers when I say disappointed with Galaxy 2 sales which is about half of 1 WW.
Huh?

The difference is nowhere near half.

Through the first fiscal year (ending Mar) of each game:

Galaxy 1 - 6.10 million
Galaxy 2 - 6.36 million

Due to release dates, Galaxy 2 has several extra months in the first fiscal year, but each game had one Christmas in that period, which is the main selling season for Mario.

The only real difference worldwide is that Galaxy 1 has had an extra 2.5 years on the market. Mario has MASSIVE legs (especially in North America). Hell, Super Mario 64DS just sold 1.02 million in this past fiscal year (more than 6 years after release!). Galaxy 1 will finish ahead of Galaxy 2 worldwide, but the difference will almost completely be due solely to those extra 2.5 years on the market with the typical legs that Mario has.
 

Erethian

Member
Don't know about Mario doing a million by the end of the year, but it will easily do better than the Galaxy games.

Partly because it's a bridge game that is designed to introduce those more comfortable with 2D Mario to 3D Mario elements, and partly because the software ecosystem for 3DS will be a lot healthier than it ever was for Wii.
 
Erethian said:
Don't know about Mario doing a million by the end of the year, but it will easily do better than the Galaxy games.

Partly because it's a bridge game that is designed to introduce those more comfortable with 2D Mario to 3D Mario elements, and partly because the software ecosystem for 3DS will be a lot healthier than it ever was for Wii.
Both of the galaxy games were heavily marketed as bridge titles. In particular Galaxy 2 which was heavily marketed on the 2D aspects and the Super Guide function.

Also, I think it's a bit too soon to accurately predict that the 3DS will have healthier software sales than Wii did from 2006-2009 since it was doing unprecedently well.
 

Erethian

Member
Lord_Byron28 said:
Both of the galaxy games were heavily marketed as bridge titles. In particular Galaxy 2 which was heavily marketed on the 2D aspects and the Super Guide function.

Also, I think it's a bit too soon to accurately predict that the 3DS will have healthier software sales than Wii did from 2006-2009 since it was doing unprecedently well.

Galaxy games were bridge titles in as much as Nintendo did post-release marketing in December 2007 to show people how 3D Mario still had equivalent gameplay conventions to 2D Mario. Like this TV commercial.

Whereas 3D Land has as its core gameplay design the idea that it is a 2D Mario in a 3D environment, right down to how it controls. Miyamoto even talked in a Iwata Asks about that being the reason for the name. A Super Mario Land game, but with the Land in 3D.

Not saying it's going to do as well as a 2D Mario, of course, but Nintendo are clearly trying to make a Mario game that can help get 2D Mario fans more comfortable with 3D Mario, because they recognise there's a distinct popularity gap.
 
DR2K said:
So I take it you'll only be posting in the media create threads?

Do you really think it's that unlikely that we could see the 3DS coming out on the top in NPD threads? I don't think it will dominate like the DS but i can see it being on top on a semi regular basis.
 

DGRE

Banned
Glad to start some good discussion.

I don't think PSP will stop selling software this year but what big titles are left for PSP this year?
 

Grimmy

Banned
DGRE said:
Glad to start some good discussion.

I don't think PSP will stop selling software this year but what big titles are left for PSP this year?

Final Fantasy Zero Expressions
Hatsune Miku: Project Diva Extend

Minor hits:
I Have Very Few Friends Portable (LOL)
Over My Dead Body
Photo Kano
7th Dragon 2020
Super Dangun-Ronpa
 

Dalthien

Member
Erethian said:
Partly because it's a bridge game that is designed to introduce those more comfortable with 2D Mario to 3D Mario elements, and partly because the software ecosystem for 3DS will be a lot healthier than it ever was for Wii.
Not to say that the 3DS won't have a healthier software ecosystem than the Wii (because based on 3rd-party support, it sure looks like it has a very good chance of doing just that), but let's not sell the Wii short.

The Wii was definitely disappointing for mid-range titles, but it has been a beast when it comes to the heavy hitters. For a quick comparison of million-sellers (Famitsu):

PS2:

3,555,469 - Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King
2,325,215 - Final Fantasy X
2,322,541 - Final Fantasy XII
1,960,937 - Final Fantasy X-2
1,614,806 - Dragon Quest V: Tenkuu no Hanayome
1,438,743 - Gran Turismo 3: A-Spec
1,197,349 - Dynasty Warriors 4
1,129,196 - Kingdom Hearts II
1,116,786 - World Soccer Winning Eleven 6: International
1,100,238 - World Soccer Winning Eleven 7
1,083,079 - Hot Shots Golf 4
1,066,749 - Gran Turismo 4
1,059,585 - World Soccer Winning Eleven 8
1,050,319 - World Soccer Winning Eleven 10
1,042,819 - Dynasty Warriors 3
1,024,338 - Samurai Warriors
1,003,874 - Onimusha 2: Samurai's Destiny

Total - 25,092,043 - (17 titles)


Wii:

4,264,980 - New Super Mario Bros. Wii
3,688,089 - Wii Sports
3,561,787 - Wii Fit
3,255,433 - Mario Kart Wii
2,801,209 - Wii Play
2,511,745 - Wii Sports Resort
2,278,075 - Wii Fit Plus
2,094,464 - Super Smash Bros. Brawl
1,922,243 - Wii Party
1,427,575 - Mario Party 8
1,221,459 - Animal Crossing: City Folk
1,070,743 - Monster Hunter 3
1,005,649 - Super Mario Galaxy
981,606 - Super Mario Galaxy 2
928,495 - Donkey Kong Country Returns
907,975 - Super Mario All-Stars
?,???,??? - Dragon Quest X

Total - 33,921,527 (+ DQX) - (16 titles (+ DQX))


SMG2 and DKCR will certainly top a million. The only questionable one here is Mario All-Stars. But Media Create has it 50k higher than Famitsu, so if Nintendo decides to ship some more for the upcoming holidays then it may squeeze past a million. But it may very well fall just a bit short.

In any case, this shows that the Wii was extremely competitive with the PS2 when it comes to the top-selling titles. And Mario falls into that category. (and I suspect this helped Square Enix feel comfortable about keeping DQX on the Wii all this time).
 

Truth101

Banned
Dalthien said:
Not to say that the 3DS won't have a healthier software ecosystem than the Wii (because based on 3rd-party support, it sure looks like it has a very good chance of doing just that), but let's not sell the Wii short.

The Wii was definitely disappointing for mid-range titles, but it has been a beast when it comes to the heavy hitters. For a quick comparison of million-sellers (Famitsu):

PS2:

3,555,469 - Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King
2,325,215 - Final Fantasy X
2,322,541 - Final Fantasy XII
1,960,937 - Final Fantasy X-2
1,614,806 - Dragon Quest V: Tenkuu no Hanayome
1,438,743 - Gran Turismo 3: A-Spec
1,197,349 - Dynasty Warriors 4
1,129,196 - Kingdom Hearts II
1,116,786 - World Soccer Winning Eleven 6: International
1,100,238 - World Soccer Winning Eleven 7
1,083,079 - Hot Shots Golf 4
1,066,749 - Gran Turismo 4
1,059,585 - World Soccer Winning Eleven 8
1,050,319 - World Soccer Winning Eleven 10
1,042,819 - Dynasty Warriors 3
1,024,338 - Samurai Warriors
1,003,874 - Onimusha 2: Samurai's Destiny

Total - 25,092,043 (17 titles)


Wii:

4,264,980 - New Super Mario Bros. Wii
3,688,089 - Wii Sports
3,561,787 - Wii Fit
3,255,433 - Mario Kart Wii
2,801,209 - Wii Play
2,511,745 - Wii Sports Resort
2,278,075 - Wii Fit Plus
2,094,464 - Super Smash Bros. Brawl
1,922,243 - Wii Party
1,427,575 - Mario Party 8
1,221,459 - Animal Crossing: City Folk
1,070,743 - Monster Hunter 3
1,005,649 - Super Mario Galaxy
981,606 - Super Mario Galaxy 2
928,495 - Donkey Kong Country Returns
907,975 - Super Mario All-Stars

Total - 33,921,527 (16 titles)


SMG2 and DKCR will certainly top a million. The only questionable one here is Mario All-Stars. But Media Create has it 50k higher than Famitsu, so if Nintendo decides to ship some more for the upcoming holidays then it may squeeze past a million. But it may very well fall just a bit short.

In any case, this shows that the Wii was extremely competitive with the PS2 when it comes to the top-selling titles. And Mario falls into that category.

The Wii will also be adding another million seller when DQX hits.
 

saichi

Member
airmangataosenai said:
Yakuza beat Ni no Kuni too (Yes, it counts as an RPG), and the current batch of RPGs that came out the past few weeks (Dark Souls and Monster Hunter 3rd) are tracking to eventually surpass it too.

Saying "Only those titles" is a bit of a misnomer too given that those two are close to the only major RPGs that have been released for the PS3 to date that aren't late/sloppy ports.

really don't see either title to pass 550K.
 

ULTROS!

People seem to like me because I am polite and I am rarely late. I like to eat ice cream and I really enjoy a nice pair of slacks.
Truth101 said:
The Wii will also be adding another million seller when DQX hits.

Unless it has offline mode, I have a feeling it will do FFXI numbers.
 

Kazerei

Banned
Dalthien said:
Wii:

4,264,980 - New Super Mario Bros. Wii
3,688,089 - Wii Sports
3,561,787 - Wii Fit
3,255,433 - Mario Kart Wii
2,801,209 - Wii Play
2,511,745 - Wii Sports Resort
2,278,075 - Wii Fit Plus
2,094,464 - Super Smash Bros. Brawl
1,922,243 - Wii Party
1,427,575 - Mario Party 8
1,221,459 - Animal Crossing: City Folk
1,070,743 - Monster Hunter 3
1,005,649 - Super Mario Galaxy
981,606 - Super Mario Galaxy 2
928,495 - Donkey Kong Country Returns
907,975 - Super Mario All-Stars
?,???,??? - Dragon Quest X

Nintendo games + Monster Hunter + Dragon Quest

Not really encouraging for third parties...
 
ULTROS! said:
Unless it has offline mode, I have a feeling it will do FFXI numbers.
It's going to move more than FFXI no matter what, it's still Dragon Quest. I ciuld see it doing under a million all the same though.
 

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
3 first party games in a list vs 1 non-first party in a list (+ an expected) ?

#datwiiecosystem


The Wii was definitely disappointing for mid-range titles, but it has been a beast when it comes to the heavy hitters.

for NINTENDO heavy hitters.

The Monster Hunter 3 figures are -disappointing- given what the series does on the PSP (about 1/4th the sales)

It's going to move more than FFXI no matter what, it's still Dragon Quest. I ciuld see it doing under a million all the same though.

... in which case if you see it doing under a million then "no matter what" statement is pretty much cancelled out right?
 
fernoca said:
Mario Kart DS?
Debuted with 220,000 the first week.
Is at over 4 million; so damn fine long legs. :p
MK7 will sell much more in the first week.


... in which case if you see it doing under a million then "no matter what" statement is pretty much cancelled out right?
No, it is subscription based, each 200K added sustainable installed based will add A LOT to their revenue.


The Monster Hunter 3 figures are -disappointing- given what the series does on the PSP (about 1/4th the sales)
lol, what?!
MH Tri has sold 1.9m, no MH has ever sold anywhere near 7.6m, and Tri was also sub based in Japan. Moreover, no MH sold even 3.5m before Tri hitting.
Probably one of the main reasons both DQX and next MHs are going to Nintendo platforms, is exactly because Nintendo can compensate lower sales in Japan (which won't happen for Tri G anyway), with sales outside Japan.
 

Erethian

Member
Not sure why you'd compare Wii MH sales to PSP MH sales unless you just want to willfully ignore the main selling point of MH.

Also while Wii did quite good in its first few years, it never came anywhere near the DS in terms of software. Which was my point.
 

Cipherr

Member
Erethian said:
Not sure why you'd compare Wii MH sales to PSP MH sales unless you just want to willfully ignore the main selling point of MH.

Also while Wii did quite good in its first few years, it never came anywhere near the DS in terms of software. Which was my point.


Yeah I'm not sure why you wouldn't compare it to the previous console version which AFAIK it outperformed (it certainly outperformed it WW) the handheld series is a totally different animal.
 

Dalthien

Member
Kazerei said:
Nintendo games + Monster Hunter + Dragon Quest

Not really encouraging for third parties...
The Wii really hasn't been encouraging for 3rd parties. No arguments. But that wasn't the point of the comparison.

The Wii HAS been very good for top-tier titles, even going so far as to match the PS2 in that category.

Just for fun though, let's do a quick recap of the greener pastures for 3rd-party heavy hitters that broke a million this gen.

PSP - 1 brand (Monster Hunter)
PS3 - 1 brand (Final Fantasy)
360 - Ha ha ha...

The DS was the only system with a broad stable of different 3rd-party brands that cracked a million. And the Wii is the only other system with a broad stable of brands (1st+3rd parties) that broke a million.
 

Erethian

Member
Cipherr said:
Yeah I'm not sure why you wouldn't compare it to the previous console version which AFAIK it outperformed (it certainly outperformed it WW) the handheld series is a totally different animal.

Well the franchise has obviously grown substantially since the PS2 games. But to ignore the huge part handheld-based local co-op plays in its success is to also ignore one of the big trends of the last 3-4 years in Japanese gaming.

There is a reason Phantasy Star Portable is (I think) the best-selling Phantasy Star ever.
 

JWong

Banned
Dalthien said:
The Wii really hasn't been encouraging for 3rd parties. No arguments. But that wasn't the point of the comparison.

The Wii HAS been very good for top-tier titles, even going so far as to match the PS2 in that category.

Just for fun though, let's do a quick recap of the greener pastures for 3rd-party heavy hitters that broke a million this gen.

PSP - 1 brand (Monster Hunter)
PS3 - 1 brand (Final Fantasy)
360 - Ha ha ha...

The DS was the only system with a broad stable of different 3rd-party brands that cracked a million. And the Wii is the only other system with a broad stable of brands (1st+3rd parties) that broke a million.
360 - Icecream approved games
 

LOCK

Member
king zell said:
next week well be the start of one of the biggest lineup's I've seen in the e history of Japan gaming.

starting next week with the release of the new color with Tetris until the end of Jan 2012 it's gonna be insane.
And hopefully demand is high, should be from the lack of software sales so far this year. Like I said in my earlier post, it is the perfect storm.
 
LOCK said:
And hopefully demand is high, should be from the lack of software sales so far this year. Like I said in my earlier post, it is the perfect storm.
Demand will be high, but I am willing to bet my left kidney that Nintendo will not be able to meet the demand, there'll be extreme shortages of 3DS, specially for exotic colors.
 

Kenka

Member
I seriously wonder why the 3DS got the middlefinger from third-parties in Japan so far.
Where the studios waiting for more incentives from Nintendo to finally fully support it ?
 

ULTROS!

People seem to like me because I am polite and I am rarely late. I like to eat ice cream and I really enjoy a nice pair of slacks.
JWong said:
360 - Icecream approved games

Star Ocean 4 is the best selling game (200k~250k). :p
 

BKK

Member
Dalthien said:
Not to say that the 3DS won't have a healthier software ecosystem than the Wii (because based on 3rd-party support, it sure looks like it has a very good chance of doing just that), but let's not sell the Wii short.

The Wii was definitely disappointing for mid-range titles, but it has been a beast when it comes to the heavy hitters. For a quick comparison of million-sellers (Famitsu):

PS2:

3,555,469 - Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King
2,325,215 - Final Fantasy X
2,322,541 - Final Fantasy XII
1,960,937 - Final Fantasy X-2
1,614,806 - Dragon Quest V: Tenkuu no Hanayome
1,438,743 - Gran Turismo 3: A-Spec
1,197,349 - Dynasty Warriors 4
1,129,196 - Kingdom Hearts II
1,116,786 - World Soccer Winning Eleven 6: International
1,100,238 - World Soccer Winning Eleven 7
1,083,079 - Hot Shots Golf 4
1,066,749 - Gran Turismo 4
1,059,585 - World Soccer Winning Eleven 8
1,050,319 - World Soccer Winning Eleven 10
1,042,819 - Dynasty Warriors 3
1,024,338 - Samurai Warriors
1,003,874 - Onimusha 2: Samurai's Destiny

Total - 25,092,043 - (17 titles)


Wii:

4,264,980 - New Super Mario Bros. Wii
3,688,089 - Wii Sports
3,561,787 - Wii Fit
3,255,433 - Mario Kart Wii
2,801,209 - Wii Play
2,511,745 - Wii Sports Resort
2,278,075 - Wii Fit Plus
2,094,464 - Super Smash Bros. Brawl
1,922,243 - Wii Party
1,427,575 - Mario Party 8
1,221,459 - Animal Crossing: City Folk
1,070,743 - Monster Hunter 3
1,005,649 - Super Mario Galaxy
981,606 - Super Mario Galaxy 2
928,495 - Donkey Kong Country Returns
907,975 - Super Mario All-Stars
?,???,??? - Dragon Quest X

Total - 33,921,527 (+ DQX) - (16 titles (+ DQX))

As alluded to, there is a big drop off after Super Mario All-Stars. When the 17th top selling Wii title is included (Taiko no Tatsujin Wii) the number of PS2 titles which have sold more jumps up to 31.

Moving the cut off to 500.000 is even more telling. Wii has 22 titles, 20 of which are first party, whereas PS2 has 70 titles, 7 of which are first party.

I notice PS3 is closing in from the bottom too;

Wii has 71 titles over 100.000 compared to 87 for PS3 (plus another two last week according to MC).

Wii is ahead in 200.000 titles by 45 to 41 (plus WE2012 last week).

For 300.000 titles Wii is ahead by 32 to 26.

It's when we get to 500.000 titles that Wii really pulls ahead; 22 to 8.

Of course, 1.000.000 titles is no contest, 13 (and counting) to 1.

Source: Famitsu via http://gamedatamuseum.web.fc2.com/index.htm
 

Jackano

Member
Kazerei said:
Nintendo games + Monster Hunter + Dragon Quest

Not really encouraging for third parties...

On the contrary. Before that you only had Nintendo and Squarenix games.
Capcom proved that with a good title, on top of that a new IP, you can suceed on a Nintendo/SquarEnix level.
 

noobie

Banned
BKK said:
As alluded to, there is a big drop off after Super Mario All-Stars. When the 17th top selling Wii title is included (Taiko no Tatsujin Wii) the number of PS2 titles which have sold more jumps up to 31.

Moving the cut off to 500.000 is even more telling. Wii has 22 titles, 20 of which are first party, whereas PS2 has 70 titles, 7 of which are first party.

I notice PS3 is closing in from the bottom too;

Wii has 71 titles over 100.000 compared to 87 for PS3 (plus another two last week according to MC).

Wii is ahead in 200.000 titles by 45 to 41 (plus WE2012 last week).

For 300.000 titles Wii is ahead by 32 to 26.

It's when we get to 500.000 titles that Wii really pulls ahead; 22 to 8.

Of course, 1.000.000 titles is no contest, 13 (and counting) to 1.

Source: Famitsu via http://gamedatamuseum.web.fc2.com/index.htm
just show how impressive Wii conversion rate is for converting titles of 100k into a 500k plus seller or a million seller..
and how pathetic PS3 software legs are for converting a 100k games into a 500k+ seller.. and unthinkable for a PS3 game for converting into a million seller.
 

Dash Kappei

Not actually that important
wsippel said:
I'll be very surprised if Mario Kart and Monster Hunter won't hit a million by year's end.
It'll depend on how much stock the 3DS will have really. End of fiscal year is another matter of course.
 
Meanwhile, in nicheville, that's not actually terrible legs for Ao no Kiseki. We all knew it'd be frontloaded, but the Kiseki games are also quite famous for selling four-figures month after month (it's how the first Trails game eventually hit 200k on the PSP, never mind its PC numbers). It really depends on how weeks three and four look, I suppose. That's still a great result for Ao overall, though, and I have to imagine Toshiro Kondo backflippin' into a pool full of money due to how comparatively well it's done for them.

FWIW the number for last week Falcom is trumpeting on Twitter is the number that Famitsu reported, which is over 150k for Ao's first week:

http://www.famitsu.com/news/201110/13051784.html

So for Falcom, that number may be a bit more accurate, which would mean they're closer to 170k this week, making it even more impressive.
 

donny2112

Member
Kazerei said:
Nintendo games + Monster Hunter + Dragon Quest

Not really encouraging for third parties...
Dalthien said:
PS3 - 1 brand (Final Fantasy)
360 - Ha ha ha...

Nintendo games + (probably) incentivized game + always goes to top console game

What can we learn from this? The same thing we've been discussing for years. Third-parties backed the wrong horse and Nintendo didn't give enough of them a reason to change their minds (via hardware power and/or "incentives"). Here's hoping that Wii U won't be in the same boat. It should have the hardware power for porting part taken care of, at least.

BKK said:
I notice PS3 is closing in from the bottom too;

Wii has 71 titles over 100.000 compared to 87 for PS3 (plus another two last week according to MC).

Yes, it's amazing what actually having releases for your console will do.

New Releases in MC Top 50 (i.e. really low bar) in 2011
PS3 - 80
360 - 45
WII - 21

New Releases in MC Top 50 (i.e. really low bar) since beginning of 2010
PS3 - 181
360 - 104
WII - 57
 

BKK

Member
donny2112 said:
Yes, it's amazing what actually having releases for your console will do.

New Releases in MC Top 50 (i.e. really low bar) in 2011
PS3 - 80
360 - 45
WII - 21

New Releases in MC Top 50 (i.e. really low bar) since beginning of 2010
PS3 - 181
360 - 104
WII - 57

Much of that PS3/360 "support" is Western though, which isn't really based on the Japanese market. It would be interesting to see what the release numbers are for Japanese developed titles alone.
 
BKK said:
Much of that PS3/360 "support" is Western though, which isn't really based on the Japanese market. It would be interesting to see what the release numbers are for Japanese developed titles alone.
"Western developed" cuts out some Wii stuff too though (DKCR, Goldeneye, Epic Mickey, Rabbids in Time, NFS HP, Silent Hill SM, Red Steel 2, EA Sports Active, etc). Proportionately it's probably not that different, though the sbsolute numbers are.
 

BKK

Member
lunchwithyuzo said:
"Western developed" cuts out some Wii stuff too though (DKCR, Goldeneye, Epic Mickey, Rabbids in Time, NFS HP, Silent Hill SM, Red Steel 2, EA Sports Active, etc). Proportionately it's probably not that different, though the sbsolute numbers are.

The proportion of Western developed titles released in Japan for Wii is a drop in the Ocean compared to 360.
 
BKK said:
The proportion of Western developed titles released in Japan for Wii is a drop in the Ocean compared to 360.
The number of Wii titles released in Japan is a drop in the Ocean compared to 360 overall though. I'm not so sure there isn't proportional validity at play, especially with PS3.
 
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