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[Nirolak]

Capcom is happy with the start of Dragon's Dogma Online and Monster Hunter Explore.

Actually, there appears to be little they're unhappy with, at least enough to cite it as a problem instead of just omit it.

During the same consolidated cumulative six-month period, in the Digital Contents business repeat sales and digital download sales of titles such as "Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate" and "Resident Evil Revelations 2" were firm, particularly in overseas markets, while sales of "Sengoku BASARA 4 SUMERAGI" were solid in Japan. Additionally, the recently launched online game "Dragon's Dogma Online" and "Monster Hunter Explore" for mobile have both made an excellent start.

http://www.capcom.co.jp/ir/english/news/html/e151029b.html

 

[ZSaberLink]

So... did we get an idea why the Xbox one had a boost in sales since the Halo 5 bundle hadn't released during those weeks? Is it just pre-Halo 5 hype or something?

 

[Pennywise83]

So there's this Miitomo thing and then paid apps.

All right, I'll just file their mobile strategy into the garbage for now.

Wut? Miimoto is a social app + Mii so a good fit for mobile. Pokémon GO is F2P and seems quite a big project. Nintendo seems investing quite a lot in mobile - just in their own unique way, that is likely to pay off.

 

[dakkumauji]

Capcom is happy with the start of Dragon's Dogma Online and Monster Hunter Explore.

Actually, there appears to be little they're unhappy with, at least enough to cite it as a problem instead of just omit it.


http://www.capcom.co.jp/ir/english/news/html/e151029b.html

well they did mention that Dai Gyakuten Saiban sales remained slow

In the Digital Contents business, while sales of "Sengoku BASARA 4 SUMERAGI" (for PlayStation 4 and PlayStation 3) were solid thanks to the well-established brand power, "DAIGYAKUTENSAIBAN" (for the Nintendo 3DS system) remained slow. On the other hand, sales of repeat titles and digital download sales were firm, particularly in overseas markets.

I'm kinda surprised they said that Basara's sales were solid. I'm guessing they kept their expectations in check.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Wut? Miimoto is a social app + Mii so a good fit for mobile. Pokémon GO is F2P and seems quite a big project. Nintendo seems investing quite a lot in mobile - just in their own unique way, that is likely to pay off.

Pokemon Go actually looks interesting. Miitomo.... I think the fact that it seems a bit hard to explain is going to hurt them. Nintendo's projects seem to sell well when the fun easily shows and is easily explained.

 

[DrWong]

Pokemon Go actually looks interesting. Miitomo.... I think the fact that it seems a bit hard to explain is going to hurt them. Nintendo's projects seem to sell well when the fun easily shows and is easily explained.

They won't sell it ;]

Given the team behind the project (I'm expecting something fun in its way), the free entry, Nintendo brand, Mii's appeal to young & female audience (from my ass here), the social nature of the thing and the meta of its integration in the N ecosystem..., I'm expecting success (downloads) more than failure The weirdness is a bonus to differentiate and will maybe be potentially more well received by "casuals" than by the core market and its defined tastes/expectations.

 

[vinnygambini]

I think Miitomo is a title likely to do very well in its native country Japan but may experience difficulties overseas.

Side note, Nintendo & DeNA stock experienced 10% and 15% drops respectively.

Analysts expected way too much of the meeting - I think it was quite obvious the mobile title would be released in Q4 from Iwata's wording...

 

[L~A]

well they did mention that Dai Gyakuten Saiban sales remained slow



I'm kinda surprised they said that Basara's sales were solid. I'm guessing they kept their expectations in check.

A shame about Dai Gyakuten Saiban. We all know what "remained slow" means...

Pokemon Go actually looks interesting. Miitomo.... I think the fact that it seems a bit hard to explain is going to hurt them. Nintendo's projects seem to sell well when the fun easily shows and is easily explained.

Maybe it's just me, but I don't see what's hard to understand/explain about Miitomo? It's an app where your Mii asks you questions, you answer, and the answers are sent to your friends who can then react to them, which triggers discussions.

Now obviously there's definitely more to the app than this, but the basic premise sounds extremely straightforward.

I think Miitomo is a title likely to do very well in its native country Japan but may experience difficulties overseas.

Side note, Nintendo & DeNA stock experienced 10% and 15% drops respectively.

Analysts expected way too much of the meeting - I think it was quite obvious the mobile title would be released in Q4 from Iwata's wording...

I remember the same thing said about Tomodachi Life before the western launch ("too weird", "too Japanese, will not appeal to western players"). We all know how that ended. Not singling you out in particular, but I've seen several people say that today ("it'll only do well in Japan"), but the success of Tomodachi Life in the west shows that they were right to chose Tomodachi Life for that app.

Also, the game was definitely supposed to come out this year:

Although we announced during the last Financial Briefing that we would release the first application by the end of this year, we have rescheduled it to be released in March 2016 with our aim to further improve the application and to optimize the overall smart device business.

Source

 

[Nirolak]

Wut? Miimoto is a social app + Mii so a good fit for mobile. Pokémon GO is F2P and seems quite a big project. Nintendo seems investing quite a lot in mobile - just in their own unique way, that is likely to pay off.

I'm having trouble imagining it compete well in a market dominated by LINE already.

That doesn't strike me as the sort of thing that's going to catch on to an extreme degree (or more importantly, also monetize very well instead of just getting a lot of downloads) when everyone is already hooked on a social platform with a bunch of affiliated games and a similar product to boot. Admittedly that product does make good money, so supplanting would be strong, but it strikes me as an uphill climb given it's been strong and well seated since 2013.

I wasn't counting Pokemon GO though. For The Pokemon Company, I think their mobile strategy is generally okay since there's some decent but not astonishing monetization, and they're also feeding into a very successful merchandizing IP, where simply getting downloads is a big boon.

I don't think Nintendo sells many Mii toys/other merchandizing though, so the desire would be in monetizing the app itself. I could be wrong.

well they did mention that Dai Gyakuten Saiban sales remained slow

Ah I missed that one. Thanks for mentioning it. I'm guessing they wanted something closer to a regular entry given the production values seem to be the same.

I'm kinda surprised they said that Basara's sales were solid. I'm guessing they kept their expectations in check.

Yeah, that series seems so cheap I imagine their expectations are incredibly low.

 

[vinnygambini]

Also, the game was definitely supposed to come out this year:

Source

So odd because according to DeNA's IR, shortly after the capital allience, their presentation seem to imply that it was always aimed starting at the beginning of next year.

http://v4.eir-parts.net/v4Contents/View.aspx?template=ir_material&sid=39239&code=2432

 

[ZSaberLink]

Maybe it's just me, but I don't see what's hard to understand/explain about Miitomo? It's an app where your Mii asks you questions, you answer, and the answers are sent to your friends who can then react to them, which triggers discussions.

Now obviously there's definitely more to the app than this, but the basic premise sounds extremely straightforward.

Sure, but that's exactly it. I don't get what purpose this game/app serves. Why do you need Miis to initiate discussions with folks you're already friends with? They almost phrased it as "if you're shy, you can use this to talk to people", which is kind of weird.

 

[Nirolak]

To clarify what I mean about LINE already having a similar product, this is LINE PLAY: https://www.appannie.com/apps/ios/app/line-play/

LINE PLAY - Create Your Own Avatar & Meet New Friends!

Discover your own special place on LINE PLAY. Create an avatar that looks just like you. Decorate and dress up your avatar with amazing items.
Over 20 million new friends are waiting! Let's hang out and party on LINE PLAY!

◎ Easy start with SNS accounts
• You don’t need to make a separate account.
• Just use LINE, Facebook or Twitter account to start right away.

◎ Become friends with the hottest celebrities and characters
• Be friends with Katy Perry, MIKA, PSY, Hello Kitty, Snoopy, Rilakkuma and more!
• There are new celebrities and characters on LINE PLAY almost every week!

▼ Here are the main features:

◎ Picture Perfect Avatars
• Take a selfie and create an avatar that looks just like you!
• Choose from a wide range of eyes, ears, mouths and noses, as well as tails to create your very own animal avatar!

◎ Be Creative with Endless Items
• Turn your room into a study, flower garden, pool party and more!
• Dress up your avatar in the hottest style today or turn it into a fairytale princess and prince.
• We are continually adding hundreds of new items every week!

◎ Meet, Socialize and Share
• Meet new friends from the Square & the Lounge and have a private chat with friends!
• Enjoy special ways to chat with friends. Use funny actions to express whatever’s on your mind.
• Write on your own diary and share your daily thoughts as well as photos with others.

◎ PLAY Special Games
• Enjoy games that are only available on LINE PLAY.
• Win special prizes that would make your friends jealous!

That said, LINE PLAY does make good money if they managed to successfully compete:

 

[fredrancour]

Sure, but that's exactly it. I don't get what purpose this game/app serves. Why do you need Miis to initiate discussions with folks you're already friends with? They almost phrased it as "if you're shy, you can use this to talk to people", which is kind of weird.

As near as I can tell, it's a way to force yourself to talk to people who'd normally just be chilling in your contacts list for days or weeks at a time. I already use snapchats of stupid shit to keep in touch with people, why not have an app perpetually giving me an excuse to bug people I don't see very often?

I have no idea if that's an accurate interpretation or how a marketing department would run with that, though

 

[Xbro]

I think I prefer the miis...

 

[Orniletter]

Someone got paid to draw those characters. Holy hell.

 

[Nirolak]

Social game art is often horrific yes.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

I don't think miitomo will do good outside Japan honestly.

 

[Nirolak]

If it succeeds in Japan, I think that's still fine. Japan is an astronomically large mobile market.

 

[Vena]

I don't think miitomo will do good outside Japan honestly.

Europe.

If it succeeds in Japan, I think that's still fine. Japan is an astronomically large mobile market.

It has a good chance, but time will tell. They have a 20mil base to advertise it to with "in your pocket" functionality as well as the greater Japanese market which is, as you've noted, astronomically large. There is a large amount of people and money that this app can tap into even if competing products exist (which, let's be serious here, in mobile exist in literally every genre and app demographic).

 

[Nirolak]

It has a good chance, but time will tell. They have a 20mil base to advertise it to with "in your pocket" functionality as well as the greater Japanese market which is, as you've noted, astronomically large. There is a large amount of people and money that this app can tap into even if competing products exist (which, let's be serious here, in mobile exist in literally every genre and app demographic).

Oh, to be clear, I normally think competing with an existing app makes a lot of sense.

I'm just not clear on if competing with this kind of thing will work, especially in the long run.

The main questions for me are:

1.) How many people are going to want to frequently log into and spend money on both their LINE PLAY alternate self and their Miitomo alternate self?

2.) How many people not engaged with LINE PLAY are looking for this kind of thing and will frequently log in to spend money?

3.) How many people would switch over from LINE PLAY if they already have a community there, which presumably the people spending money there already do?

With most games it's easy for me to imagine spending someone spending money on both White Cat Project and Final Fantasy Grandmasters long term if they like action RPGs, but this would be learning about your friends through your alternate self in two separate apps.

Even if they get 20 million downloads in Japan, they need a sizable, money spending community to still be here and engaged in 2017 for the kind of expectations investors will have.

Of course, maybe LINE PLAY just isn't very good, and succeeds via its uniqueness. At that point they could steal a lot given their brand recognition (getting users in the door, and it stems from both Nintendo/The Wii in general and Tomodachi Collection more directly) plus implementation quality/differences.

 

[Fisico]

well they did mention that Dai Gyakuten Saiban sales remained slow

I guess I was right to worry about its sales in the end, despite Pennywise saying multiple times it was ok.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Nice hold for PS4.

 

[dakkumauji]

Of course, maybe LINE PLAY just isn't very good, and succeeds via its uniqueness. At that point they could steal a lot given their brand recognition (getting users in the door, and it stems from both Nintendo/The Wii in general and Tomodachi Collection more directly) plus implementation quality/differences.

well one reason why LINE PLAY is so successful is cause LINE itself is like the biggest messaging app in Japan right now

so its probably more like well I'm already using this to talk to friends, family, etc, might as well see what somebody else is playing on the same platform

kinda like how games on facebook used to be pretty popular

 

[Moor-Angol]

So... did we get an idea why the Xbox one had a boost in sales since the Halo 5 bundle hadn't released during those weeks? Is it just pre-Halo 5 hype or something?

m$ site says Halo 5 bundle and the limited collector edition were released
famitsu says only Halo 5 limited collector edition was released


answer :

Spoiler

NBA2K16 digital

made XBO bumping

 

[uceenk]

sems low number for Zelda out there

 

[Kralamoonard]

This is using the most recent digital data, keep in mind data from some of these games is outdated.


* includes all rereleases

This uses the most recent digital data, but these estimate include retail sales, right?

 

[test_account]

There's a very high possibility (unless I am forgetting upcoming releases) that we're back sub-20k within the week or one after given the current decay rate and the old baseline/soft-drop.

As long as its that much under 20k, i dont think it matters that much. Same with WiiU going sub 10k this week. Wouldnt really matter that much if its 9k or 11k, in my opinion. PS4 could maybe go back to 10k - 15k eventually though.

 

[Vena]

As long as its that much under 20k, i dont think it matters that much. Same with WiiU going sub 10k this week. Wouldnt really matter that much if its 9k or 11k, in my opinion. PS4 could maybe go back to 10k - 15k eventually though.

I mean, its basically confirmation that price hasn't really been the underlying issue (not that there was much mystery there). The product simply isn't for the market. (And that is why the slow demise of the Vita will be very, very interesting to watch from a "what happens to all this software" perspective that hiska was highlighting earlier.)

Of course as you say, these are kind of irrelevant numbers. Whether its at 18k or at 22k, its not much of a difference. Or whether the WiiU is at 9k or 11k.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

PS4 could maybe go back to 10k - 15k eventually though.

yes, it will, but not this year. Probabily in April / May 2016.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Random hypothetical question. If Nintendo had decided to lose money on the Wii U hardware and had cut the price more like a normal console in Japan, do you think it could have sold more than the GC's 4 million? Not saying it would have been worth it, but it's kind of an interesting thought.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Random hypothetical question. If Nintendo had decided to lose money on the Wii U hardware and had cut the price more like a normal console in Japan, do you think it could have sold more than the GC's 4 million? Not saying it would have been worth it, but it's kind of an interesting thought.

Definitive.
The GC in Japan has sold 726,640 in 2004, and Wii U has a strong chance for beat those numbers. I also think it will. If not, will be very close, i really don't see Wii U under 700k this year.

And if Nintendo decided to sell Wii U at the same price of the GC, then, the gap was gonna be way bigger this year.

If Wii U was selling for $99 like GC, it would even outsold it globally, expecially in Japan and Europe. ( maybe not in the US)

But at this price, and with NX incoming, no. No way. Wii U should end at 3.75m in Jp and 16m WW.

 

[vinnygambini]

Jesus investors are really not kind to Nintendo lol - down another 7% today in Osaka.

DeNA also 3.5% down

 

[Scum]

To clarify what I mean about LINE already having a similar product, this is LINE PLAY: https://www.appannie.com/apps/ios/app/line-play/



That said, LINE PLAY does make good money if they managed to successfully compete:

Now I'm more intrigued. Go on, NCL. Do your best LINE PLAY impression!

 

[Vena]

Jesus investors are really not kind to Nintendo lol - down another 7% today in Osaka.

DeNA also 3.5% down

Thid type of movement is expected as its largely investors who didnt understand the plans. The reports from Reuters and Forbea channel this obviously. They were expecting Mario and co..

 

[Father_Brain]

Thid type of movement is expected as its largely investors who didnt understand the plans. The reports from Reuters and Forbea channel this obviously. They were expecting Mario and co.

Was that really so unreasonable, though? It's not like Nintendo couldn't have managed expectations by giving advance notice that the first DeNA "game" and the previously mentioned Mii mobile app were one and the same, and that the actual games based on more character-driven IP wouldn't arrive until the next FY.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Requesting MH Comgnet comparison.

 

[vinnygambini]

Thid type of movement is expected as its largely investors who didnt understand the plans. The reports from Reuters and Forbea channel this obviously. They were expecting Mario and co..

Yup. It feels as though they always overhype what Nintendo will deliver during these financial meetings, and falter when the expectations are not met.

I mean they were saying we would get details on NX, quite frankly with Nintendo, never expect anything ahhaha

Still DeNA lost 17%, and Nintendo 18% in two days, pretty crazy.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I thought they missed analyst earnings expectations, as well as their plans being generally uninspiring. So downward movement doesn't seem particularly out of nowhere.

 

[thestopsign]

I sold my stock in Nintendo on Monday because I wasn't too confident in what they were going to show and I had already made a tidy profit. Feel like I made the right decision now!

 

[KillerMan91]

Jesus investors are really not kind to Nintendo lol - down another 7% today in Osaka.

DeNA also 3.5% down

Well Nintendo developing games for mobile is the reason why the stock has been so high in the first place this year so it's not surprising to see it taking beating now after the delay for the game.

 

[vinnygambini]

I thought they missed analyst earnings expectations, as well as their plans being generally uninspiring. So downward movement doesn't seem particularly out of nowhere.

If I'm not mistaken, they've beaten market expectations for Q2; however the remainder of the year leaves to be desired, no meaningful guidance either - they won't reach their forecast one bit

 

[shinra-bansho]

Bloomberg and WSJ were reporting analyst expectations of net income around 7B yen.

On the whole, from earnings, to plans, to delays, the quarter probably hasn't inspired much investor confidence.

 

[Vena]

Was that really so unreasonable, though? It's not like Nintendo couldn't have managed expectations by giving advance notice that the first DeNA "game" and the previously mentioned Mii mobile app were one and the same, and that the actual games based on more character-driven IP wouldn't arrive until the next FY.

Yes. They already have a popular IP with heavy investment in it, its called Pokemon Go. I was expecting a companion app at best if it was tied to a major IP while others were shooting for a low-end IP (Brain-Age, Picross, or Nintendogs/cats). At no point should the expectation have been Mario this early on, not with multi-millions being funded into Pokemon Go by Nintendo, TPC, and Google.

Just read the reports on it, you can see that analysts were just expecting the easy cash-in as were many investors.

This is a Trojan Horse app if I've seen one but it also provides a potentially good (pending we see more on the app) alternative to LINE PLAY, which has shown that such apps can dominate and reap profits. Nintendo was, no doubt, ready for this reaction but they have, frequently, been at odds with their less... enthusiastic shareholders.

What Shinra said is also true, though, that there is a reaction to the lukewarm performance (while profitable, they were under certain expectations) and lack of inspiring confidence. Its rather convoluted but I'd say that the mobile news/app was the main trigger to the sell-off rather than the lukewarm profitable quarter. Amiibos are probably going to carry them on to profits for Q3/Holidays but they'll not meet any of their software/hardware expectations unless some divine miracle occurs or a game *really* hits it off globally.

That said, the app delay seems strategic for a blow-out announcement (combining app, account/reward services, and the NX reveal) come March rather than because its not actually ready to launch by December.

Well Nintendo developing games for mobile is the reason why the stock has been so high in the first place this year so it's not surprising to see it taking beating now after the delay for the game.

Their stock soared on the mobile news, but they were heavily undervalued for months before that anyway. It was just a dam-breaker (a big one) but their stock will sit around where it has for months, just lower than the highest high of the last few months.

The Pokemon Go news is why we were so high these last few weeks.

 

[Father_Brain]

Yes. They already have a popular IP with heavy investment in it, its called Pokemon Go. I was expecting a companion app at best if it was tied to a major IP while others were shooting for a low-end IP. At no point should the expectation have been Mario this early on, not with multi-millions being funded into Pokemon Go by Nintendo, TPC, and Google.

Just read the reports on it, you can see that analysts were just expecting the easy cash-in as were many investors.

This is a Trojan Horse app if I've seen one but it also provides a potentially good (pending we see more on the app) alternative to LINE PLAY, which has shown that such apps can dominate and reap profits. Nintendo was, no doubt, ready for this reaction but they have, frequently, been at odds with their less... enthusiastic shareholders.

What Shinra said is also true, though, that there is a reaction to the lukewarm performance (while profitable, they were under certain expectations) and lack of inspiring confidence. Its rather convoluted but I'd say that the mobile news/app was the main trigger to the sell-off rather than the lukewarm profitable quarter. Amiibos are probably going to carry them on to profits for Q3/Holidays but they'll not meet any of their software/hardware expectations unless some divine miracle occurs or a game *really* hits it off globally.

That said, the app delay seems strategic for a blow-out announcement (combining app, account/reward services, and the NX reveal) come March rather than because its not actually ready to launch by December.



Their stock soared on the mobile news, but they were heavily undervalued for months before that anyway. It was just a dam-breaker (a big one) but their stock will sit around where it has for months, just lower than the highest high of the last few months.

The Pokemon Go news is why we were so high these last few weeks.

Pokemon Go has nothing to do with the DeNA deal, though. We all know that. So I'm not sure why it should have been a rationale for lowered expectations for the first DeNA title.

 

[Ōkami]

I think one of the blogs mentioned that GE: Ressurection's first day was 1/3 of Rage Burst, at least on his store.

 

[Vena]

Pokemon Go has nothing to do with the DeNA deal, though. We all know that. So I'm not sure why it should have been a rationale for lowered expectations for the first DeNA title.

Doesn't matter if it does or doesn't come from DeNA, that's their major title for mobile and into which they are putting a lot of capital right now.

I'd argue that the fact that they said that DeNA was being hired/used to help them further their infrastructure and backend (accounts and such), on top of Iwata's effective announcement of this app in February (and reassurance of the focus on their hardware), should have been tips enough that the first venture forward was not going to focus on kicking down the door of mobile with the DeNA deal with potent IPs.

It was going to be small, game or app. And in terms of app, they picked one of the best(/most well known) IP for what they wanted.

 

[hiska-kun]

First Day Sell-Through {2015.10.29}

[PSV] [PS4] God Eater: Resurrection <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) - sell-through average is 50-60% being the PS4 Cross Pack the highest and the PS4 standard version the lowest
Sales are mostly concentrated on the Vita version, and it will probably be >100k

[PSV] Yomawari <ADV> (Nippon Ichi Software) - 70-80% and some stock problems

[PS4] [PS3] NBA 2K16 <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) - 40% Good result

[XB1] Halo 5: Guardians # <ACT> (Microsoft Game Studios) (¥7.452) - Sell-through not shared

 

[Nirolak]

well one reason why LINE PLAY is so successful is cause LINE itself is like the biggest messaging app in Japan right now

so its probably more like well I'm already using this to talk to friends, family, etc, might as well see what somebody else is playing on the same platform

kinda like how games on facebook used to be pretty popular

Right, that's a big part of why I'm more skeptical about getting a social networking focused game up (instead of just a social game) when there's already something like this in the market.

 

[tkscz]

Can someone explain the MGSV sales? Are MGS sales in Japan always that low?

 

[Cipherr]

Was that really so unreasonable, though?

Yes, it was unreasonable. As someone who sat through the announcement itself and the GAF thread also (as we mocked the translators); there was no good reason to expect anything more than what they have announced so far. They made their plans clear.

But that night, and every day since then parts of the media, and people themselves have been ignoring what was said, instead substituting in this imaginary scenario where something else would happen.

It's going to get even more rough as their next games are announced and don't fall in line with what some folks have allowed themselves to expect. I don't think many of the investors nor the media are interested in Nintendos actual plan to create these side experiences that encourage people over to their main business of handhelds and consoles; I think those people want mobile to 'become' their main business while handhelds and consoles take a sidecar. They were clear that wasn't their plan, but the slow realization of it for people is going to be pretty wild.