We're seeing a cautionary tale of how being heavily reliant on third parties as a strategy comes with some pretty serious pitfalls. Sony built the PS1 and PS2 off the backs of third parties and it paid huge dividends for them, but I don't think that type of support is something you can rely on long term. To Microsoft's credit, despite all the money they blew getting in the door, it seems like they understood this and as soon as it was viable immediately set out to hit Sony where it hurt the most, and for the most part, they succeeded.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Media Create Sales: Week 51, 2011 (Dec 19 - Dec 25)
- Thread starter Road
- Start date
We're seeing a cautionary tale of how being heavily reliant on third parties as a strategy comes with some pretty serious pitfalls. Sony built the PS1 and PS2 off the backs of third parties and it paid huge dividends for them, but I don't think that type of support is something you can rely on long term. To Microsoft's credit, despite all the money they blew getting in the door, it seems like they understood this and as soon as it was viable immediately set out to hit Sony where it hurt the most, and for the most part, they succeeded.
Smiles and Cries
Member
come on its hard to believe that Vita sold Zero software last week, they did not chart but it does not mean its Zero!
Sony needs to release download numbers too :|
Sony needs to release download numbers too :|
get2sammyb
Member
True, but Sony's also countered the loss of third-party exclusives by building (arguably) the strongest first-party stable of developers in the industry right now. The problem is, that Sony's first-party produces amazing games that target Western gamers.
Perhaps Sony should not have bought Monster Hunter exclusivity, but instead invested in Japanese development, expanding Japan Studio and picking up a selection of familiar faces along the way?
Gravity Rush probably won't do gangbusters, but imagine if there were five or six games of that calibre in the PS Vita's immediate future. Would that make a difference to its fortunes at all, or does the Japanese industry really depend on Final Fantasy, Monster Hunter and Tales Of exclusively?
Yes, but a huge percentage of non gamer buyers usually ask themself a little question before getting a system: "¿can i play Mario in this thing?".
Of course Iwata won't admit that iPhone would be eating 3DS sales, that would make no sense. However he admits that there is a fundamental change going on in the portable market which means Apple and Nintendo are moving closer and closer to each other's markets. That means Nintendo won't probably be able to sustain its current portable console business model forever but for the time being it's the best option.
Every consumer product is competing for people's time and money, and so are iPhone and 3DS. They are competing, but at the moment they're not really direct competitors. That will probably change in the future though.
yurinka
Member
I think he's counting HD gen consoles only. So you'll have to wait for WiiU numbers.
I think Vita with its control ability to play western games will do better... in the west.
I'm also convinced this is the reason why japanese studios see 3DS as a safer environment than Vita.
3DS will get less western mega titles, meaning japanese games will have less competition on this platform.
I'm also convinced this is the reason why japanese studios see 3DS as a safer environment than Vita.
3DS will get less western mega titles, meaning japanese games will have less competition on this platform.
Of course they sold software, I'd think MinGol should be in the 30k range with Uncharted in the 20k range. With everything else dispersed.
Yeah, it basically gave Sony the rights to release Nintendo's software with little to no royalties given to Nintendo IIRC. However, the way Nintendo got out of that agreement at CES was spectacularly evil - they announced their partnership with Philips just as Sony was about to talk about their Nintendo partnership.
djplaeskool
Member
Given that all Vita software is available online now, I hope Sony feels compelled to give up the funk on some numbers. Something more than an unquantified top ten per month. They even noted that download numbers were "higher than expected." I'd like to see some empirical evidence of this.
Smiles and Cries
Member
So since Vita is not doing well we cannot praise the 3DS and give Nintendo some credit...
So we have to throw the iOS bone in this thread? Media Create does not chart iPhones/iPads until they do GTFO with that shit
/typing from my Macbook Pro
So we have to throw the iOS bone in this thread? Media Create does not chart iPhones/iPads until they do GTFO with that shit
/typing from my Macbook Pro
There is a little thing called PS4 in the horizon too. They probably don't want to be too late in the next-gen boat.
Instead they have PS4 to worry about.
If that's the case, then he's being silly.
What makes you think that the majority of gamers in the real world, especially for franchises which sell millions, even have silly prejudices for or against "Nintendo" or "Sony" systems? I'm pretty sure they don't. The question would be whether they own a certain system in the first place, and also whether they like what the game offers in terms of controls and in graphics.
Sure, it'll probably take more than just one game to convince a lot of people who are currently playing MHP3 on the PSP to switch to another platform immediately. But that's why they're releasing MH3G as early as they can, and also announcing MH4 far in advance. This gives the market time to adopt the system before MH4 is released.
I don't really think it will take "a lot more" than just MH to capture the majority of the demographic. After all, the demographic grew on the PSP pretty much entirely on it's own. There are no other PSP games which have sold millions. In fact there isn't even a single PSP game which has sold a million copies outside of MHP titles. That tells me that there isn't a strong focused group of people on the PSP who are all attached to a general group of games which happen to include MH.
Instead it tells me that MHP was somehow extremely appealing in some way no other game on the PSP was, to a huge group of people who probably have varied other tastes spread across the platform. Since we're seeing a lot of the sort of games which appeal to general PSP style audiences also appear on the 3DS, I don't think that it's a matter of if the overall PSP audience eventually goes over to the 3DS, but a matter of when.
Another thing to consider is that I do not believe for a moment that the majority of MHP players are the sort who didn't even own a DS this generation. Most of them certainly did, since the DS is a huge seller. But owning a system doesn't mean you want to play all sorts of games on it. The PSP offered a much better experience for full 3D action games because it had a better screen, and much better 3D capabilities. The 3DS now offers the same thing and at a low competitive price.
Limiting to weeks over 90k, searching pre-Garaph there's only one jump bigger than DQMJ:Let's see...
Match the software sales data against itself. Find instances where there's the same game separated by 7 days, and sort by the ratio of the latter sales to the earlier sales. And no trying to divide by 0!
Dragon Quest Monsters Joker clearly had some supply issues:
Famitsu 1998-11-09 01./27. [NGB] Dragon Quest Monsters: Terry's Wonderland (Enix) {1998-09-25} - 101,044 / 684,296 (+1971%)
Famitsu 2007-01-22 02./00. [NDS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker (Square Enix) {2006-12-28} - 96,496 / 1,036,076 (+758%)
I think those below were under normal circumstances (i.e. no apparent supply constraint or anything that would indulce low sales):
Famitsu 1999-12-27 00./00. [SDC] Shenmue (SEGA) {1999-12-29} - 197,648 / 257,775 (+229%)
Famitsu 2011-02-07 03./04. [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (Capcom) {2010-12-01} - 104,900 / 4,268,460 (+221%)
Famitsu 1998-01-12 01./04. [PS1] Gran Turismo (SCE) {1997-12-23} - 163,496 / 995,281 (+206%)
Famitsu 2007-01-01 07./14. [NDS] Kirby Squeak Squad (Nintendo) {2006-11-02} - 97,932 / 796,065 (+170%)
Famitsu 2006-12-18 02./07. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) {2006-05-25} - 185,021 / 3,737,742 (+156%)
Famitsu 2005-12-19 09./15. [NDS] Big Brain Academy (Nintendo) {2005-06-30} - 94,758 / 875,371 (+145%)
Famitsu 2002-12-16 03./08. [GCN] Mario Party 4 (Nintendo) {2002-11-08} - 132,468 / 551,670 (+141%)
Famitsu 2005-12-19 08./12. [GCN] Mario Party 7 (Nintendo) {2005-11-10} - 103,008 / 329,633 (+137%)
Famitsu 2006-12-18 08./14. [NDS] Animal Crossing: Wild World (Nintendo) {2005-11-23} - 131,806 / 3,600,419 (+134%)
Famitsu 2006-12-18 09./15. [WII] Wii Play (Nintendo) {2006-12-02} - 126,161 / 421,182 (+129%)
Famitsu 2006-12-18 06./10. [WII] Wii Sports (Nintendo) {2006-12-02} - 142,157 / 456,731 (+129%)
And there are indeed a bunch of big % with low unit sales.
Port Persona 5 and Catherine.
Even with a stable of quality developers Sony has the problem of not having much in the way of blockbuster brands. The only IP they have right now off the top of my head that can be called a system seller is Gran Turismo. Uncharted isn't there yet and may never be, stuff like Killzone and LBP are overshadowed by far far more popular properties in their respective genres, and the rest of their stuff has sales that range from decent to eh in comparison to the biggest franchises on other systems.
Will having a bunch of quality developers turn this situation around from a sales perspective? Possibly, but Sony's got some work to do to pull it off. Their attempts to build a strong first-party from a sales perspective this past generation was a minor success at best and its only going to get more difficult as Microsoft and Nintendo continue strengthening their own positions.
The PS4 isn't coming out until Spring 2013 at the very earliest, I believe. That give Sony ample time to make any moves regarding the Vita that they feel should be made. And even so, the PS4 would have to be a 2007/2008 PS3 level bomb early on for them to completely forget about the Vita.
The only reason Japanese game developers love the 3DS is the reason why they loved the PSP: Cheap development costs.
They can keep making their non-hd quality (read PS2) games in the next generation. They just can't seem to get on the HD train like western developers can. I'm sure most of the smaller Japanese devs are going to disappear when HD quality games become the standard.
Lord_Byron28
Member
Even though the 3DS' amazing week and software anounced has made it even stronger and is a big factor to Vita's low sales; the Vita was always going to underperform with the software anounced. Regardless of whether the 3DS was doing good or bad, the Vita was never going to set the world on fire with that price and software lineup. While Vita and 3DS are competitors in the gaming handheld market; I think last gen proved that it isn't so one or the other. The failure of one console doesn't dictate that the competitor's product is succesful likewise the success of one console doesn't dictate that the competitor's product will fail. As evidenced last gen, DS did amazingly well but PSP was able to do extremely well in Japan too. The Wii also set the world on fire but it didn't prevent the PS3 from doing pretty well for itself as well in Japan.
I think the next game Atlus announces for the 3DS will be a Gungnir port.
RE: Revelation and KH will cement what you said. 3DS is the new PSP (on top of being the new DS).
Can't wait for the third teasing beginning with a G from them!
I mean from Japan.
I think the business is a little bit more complicated than just "do everything possible" to secure a top exclusive. Sony could offer its soul to Capcom, and Capcom would still try to somehow enter the 3DS market. I also think the deal was already sealed when MH3 went to Wii. The continuing support of Nintendo will help Capcom to make MH even more popular.
Smiles and Cries
Member
Like Sony needed any more reason to ignore Vita, you remind us of PS4?
Lets push the PS4 to Spring 2014
It's cute to assume Persona 5 is going a console game to begin with.
I mean, it could be, but it's not guaranteed by any means.
SuperSonic1305
Member
Amazing how Capcom's betrayalton completely destroyed Vita.
TheDrowningMan
Member
Vita is primarily much too expensive. They *need* to knock a minimum of $100 / 100 off of the western launch, or 3DS's slow start will look like a hurricane in comparison.
No one gives a shit about handheld power, no one is going to buy it instead of an iPod or iPhone, so let's put that laughable notion to bed. It requires a heavy price cut and a free memory card at the very least. The immediate lack of compelling software can be worked on later.
No one gives a shit about handheld power, no one is going to buy it instead of an iPod or iPhone, so let's put that laughable notion to bed. It requires a heavy price cut and a free memory card at the very least. The immediate lack of compelling software can be worked on later.
Nope. Sony's line-up completely destroyed Vita. If Capcom decided to make MHP3G on PSP instead, it would have destroyed Vita too.
yurinka
Member
Like happened with 3DS, the early 'XXX is doomed' doesn't have anything to do with iOS.So since Vita is not doing well we cannot praise the 3DS and give Nintendo some credit...
So we have to throw the iOS bone in this thread? Media Create does not chart iPhones/iPads until they do GTFO with that shit
/typing from my Macbook Pro
Vita only had these issues, more or less similar the ones PS3 or 3DS had when launched (now fixed):
-No Japan focused big sellers in the launch game lists
-Previous gen system (PSP in this case) still is selling in JP
-Maybe it's too expensive
-3DS just released the traditionally 3 best selling portable games: Mario, Mario Kart and MH
iOS only wll affect the 3DS with the Ubi-like shitty casual games focused to kids. Other than that, won't affect 3DS or Vita sales.
bigtroyjon
Member
wow, just saw the huge nose dive that the Euro took today, sitting under 101 yen per Euro.(They had projected 105 for the rest of the FY back in October)
Wonder if there is any chance they delay the European Vita launch until costs get lower and focus on the US since the dollar has been higher than expected lately(over 77 yen and they projected 75) and they will be more able to afford price promotions there.
Wonder if there is any chance they delay the European Vita launch until costs get lower and focus on the US since the dollar has been higher than expected lately(over 77 yen and they projected 75) and they will be more able to afford price promotions there.
I do not believe the Sony staff will tolerate such a move, they already lost billions with the PS3. They'd rather pull the plug on the Vita then go spent even more money on something that will most probably won't make back enough cash to come break even.
Doesn't even make any sense man, the Euro is still worth a lot more than the dollar. It will not 'cost' them anything, they'd make less money.
manueldelalas
Time Traveler
The difference between the VITA and the PSP is that the PSP had it's own market and wasn't really a competitor to the DS, Nintendo went for a different market with the DS (it wasn't even a GBA successor at first!) and the PSP had an underserved market created by the GBA; so it got games like KH, MGS, MH, etc etc. It didn't even matter that the PSP launched a year later, because the handhelds weren't really competing against each other.
I think that the Smartphone and Tablet penetration in the market that the DS had, made Nintendo go back to the old market, you can see that Nintendogs 3DS wasn't a success like Nintendogs DS was, because the 3DS is not designed for that market, and that market went to look for it's gaming experiences elsewhere.
The problem with VITA is that Sony misread the situation and made a handheld that has very similar performance to the 3DS (bu bu but Uncharted) but failed to grab the 3rd party games (KH, RE, MGS and MH are all going to 3DS), part due to Sony's overconfidence and part because of launching late.
It doesn't help that there is virtually no design behind the VITA, it's a PSP with another analog stick (real analog sticks this time) and a last minute addition of a back touchscreen that isn't convincing anyone, it doesn't work as a R/L 2/3 replacement, and it ends being a useless gimmick (besides Little Deviants, I haven't seen anything interesting from that screen). There is nothing new or groundbreaking about the VITA, it is a boring handheld.
To me it's doomed, and I'm sorry to enter the Doom Train, but the fact that Nintendo went after the same market as the PSP and DS, and the fact that Sony did not secure relevant exclusives, doesn't have hardware selling games (GT Portable is not going to sell the handheld), is letting B teams do the games (bu bu but Bend) instead of their best teams makes the handheld effectively irrelevant.
The only salvation it has, as hardware, is to get hacked to the max, because it just doesn't have the software to be a real competitor in the handheld space. I see another NGP (now I know why it had this codename!) here, and I expect it to be completely irrelevant as any other non Nintendo and non PSP handheld before it.
I think that the Smartphone and Tablet penetration in the market that the DS had, made Nintendo go back to the old market, you can see that Nintendogs 3DS wasn't a success like Nintendogs DS was, because the 3DS is not designed for that market, and that market went to look for it's gaming experiences elsewhere.
The problem with VITA is that Sony misread the situation and made a handheld that has very similar performance to the 3DS (bu bu but Uncharted) but failed to grab the 3rd party games (KH, RE, MGS and MH are all going to 3DS), part due to Sony's overconfidence and part because of launching late.
It doesn't help that there is virtually no design behind the VITA, it's a PSP with another analog stick (real analog sticks this time) and a last minute addition of a back touchscreen that isn't convincing anyone, it doesn't work as a R/L 2/3 replacement, and it ends being a useless gimmick (besides Little Deviants, I haven't seen anything interesting from that screen). There is nothing new or groundbreaking about the VITA, it is a boring handheld.
To me it's doomed, and I'm sorry to enter the Doom Train, but the fact that Nintendo went after the same market as the PSP and DS, and the fact that Sony did not secure relevant exclusives, doesn't have hardware selling games (GT Portable is not going to sell the handheld), is letting B teams do the games (bu bu but Bend) instead of their best teams makes the handheld effectively irrelevant.
The only salvation it has, as hardware, is to get hacked to the max, because it just doesn't have the software to be a real competitor in the handheld space. I see another NGP (now I know why it had this codename!) here, and I expect it to be completely irrelevant as any other non Nintendo and non PSP handheld before it.
Eh, I know, but I wanted however to say it
KH, Revelations, Harvest Moon, Hatsune Miku, Theatryhthm, Love Plus, even If I were sealed with a girl, I'd banana all over her...all of these should do well / in line with predictions.
But I have doubts for Ace Combat, Tekken, especially. I'm starting doubting of DW, but this one is a bit unpredictable given the recent developments, so we'll see.
MGS, instead, has to flop as well as DLC Racer had to flop.
But...one question.
3DS owners: Why Gundam, and not PES 2012?
I'm a bit surprised to see that, after the over 100k sold by WE3DSoccer, 2012 has been completely ignored, not even in top 50, while Gundam have been bought in a good way.
I know, we're talking about a late late late version of a game already available on PS3, Wii, PSP and even PS2 against an exclusive version of a popular Gundam brand, which however, if I've heard correctly, was criticized for the size of the roster...but this difference is still strange for me.
The_Darkest_Red
Member
How do you know that this is the main issue? Why isn't it the software lineup?
Either way, it's clear that Sony designed the portable to be powerful and ahead of the curve from a tech standpoint, so at some point a drastic price-cut this early in the life cycle of the system becomes completely unfeasible.
It was only a few short months ago when everyone was jumping for joy over how "cheap" the Vita was going to be. The reason for that reaction was obvious, it doesn't look like a device that could reasonably be sold for much less out of the gate. Sony made a conscious decision to design a relatively expensive handheld gaming device, and that's simply what the Vita is and will have to be (or at least that's how it looks from my perspective).
If Sony can't sell this thing at $250 then they are most likely in some big trouble. The thing is, I don't believe we will truly know whether or not they can successfully sell it until some very compelling software comes out for it.
That is where I am at. $169 PSVita and I'm in. P4Golden will be a must buy.
Back then, Vita was cheap at $250... when compared to the 3DS at the same price.
If you look back, that Gundam game actually did worse than an entry in the same series on PSP while it had a smaller userbase than the 3DS currently employs.
bigtroyjon
Member
They are losing money on the hardware already, drop the revenue without reducing the costs and they will lose even more money. They will start with a bigger hole to dig themselves out of.
StoppedInTracks
Member
Exactly.
I admit I was the first to call the above "Nintendo slammed the PANIC button, lol!" but now I see it from a different POV.
Some higher up, dunno who maybe Iwata, maybe Miyamoto or the whole board of directors calmed the fuck down, sat and opened MS Excel. They filled in some columns, ran few macros and blamo: the plan to "save" 3DS was prepared. Everything was calculated in it: Iwata's price cut, Ambassador games, 40% price drop etc. everything. They knew all the steps to fix what went wrong.
Nintendo knows its own fucking business.
This would be a great thing to know before we completely take a shiz on these numbers.