bluecowboys
Banned
The CMA is just trying to play who got the biggest penis. CAT and MS has the bigger penis and we all know it.
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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)
- Status
Is it the better option if companies are stucked in the limbo for an other two years with a low chance of winning the appeal anyway and no possibility to make business decisions for their own future?
Is it the better option for Microsoft if for taking all these risks Activision asks much much more?
Again this will have to go through a renegotiation under new terms and market conditions, it's not the contract and situation they announced in early 2022 anymore.
Of course I'm not excluding the possibility they agree on new terms, but it won't be that obvious and easy.
feynoob
Gold Member
Anything can happen. CMA might be a difficult at this moment, but that doesn't mean there are no other option to make them budge without the divestment requirements.
The EU approval might change some of the contract negotiations as the only remaining regulators are now the CMA and FTC.
Astray
Member
Right now they are keeping things on hold from a commercial planning point of view, they can't sign marketing deals with anyone while the merger agreement is on, their COD deal with Sony expires next year, and they need to be either renewing it or finding one with another partner (Nintendo or Microsoft, but the latter is trying to buy them out whole, so beginning talks on a COD marketing deal is gonna be weird).
The same goes for any other things they have cooking but unannounced yet.
This is not an answer to my points though.
You're not considering the business implications of staying stucked for many years in a legal limbo.
You're not considering that Activision won't just extend the current contract, they will ask for a much higher financial protection and compensation.
They have a really low chance against CMA, where is the illegality and irrationality they have to prove to CAT in their appeal? There is none.
Their only point is that CMA has not used a market definition that will make them look as weak as they desire. What is CAT supposed to do with that?
Ar¢tos
Member
The solution addresses your concerns but seems like an epic nightmare to implement.
If a single license gives access to the game on all cloud services then the costumer needs to have all the accounts linked between each others and providers need to implement a way for purchases to verified by each competitor cloud service.
I can see this leading to a ton of issues.
feynoob
Gold Member
Activision will ask for better contract negotiations. That is no brainer like you said. They need to protect their business, if this thing fails.
That low chance is better than abandoning it completely.
Right now, CMA made it very clear about the obstacle of this deal, which is the cloud section.
It's up to MS and Activision to counter that, and overcome the divesment blockade.
Not an easy task, but that doesn't mean it's impossible to overcome.
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Ronin_7
Member
Sure kiddo, don't cry if it doesn't go your way again.
bluecowboys
Banned
CMA already made a bunch of errors and was pointed out by MS and EU. CAT will approve the appeal and CMA will look foolish yet again and will pay for MS appeal.
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Walter Matthau
Gold Member
If this deal goes through, Xbox will rule cloud gaming and all of civilization will be enslaved for eternity.
Ar¢tos
Member
The CAT doesn't change CMA conclusions, only sends back to the CMA for reevaluation, the conclusion can still be the same.
MasterCornholio
Member
That's not true either. If they don't see this going through they can get hurt in the short term. Microsoft can't aquire any more devs while this is going through and ABK can't make any deals either.
The cost of fighting for that low chance is astronomical in terms of business implications and damage to the companies strategies in case of failure.
If Activision asks for a 7-8 billions breakout fee and 105$/share to go through the whole appeal process against CMA which has a low chance of success anyway is it a good deal anymore for Microsoft?
We'll see what happens in July but all options are open for me.
Microsoft is not the only company that Kotick can try to sell Activision to.
Activision is not the only company that Microsoft can buy.
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bluecowboys
Banned
They can't use the same reason to block it. Also, CMA will have to pay for MS appeal and lose a lot of money. There isn't this infinite loop that everyone is hoping.
feynoob
Gold Member
The cost of buying Activision is 67b. That alone is worth it. The stakes are higher for that price tag and both companies knows it.
It won't cost 67b anymore in July.
Ar¢tos
Member
They can use the same reason to block it if they consider the data change irrelevant.
fermcr
Member
"A CMA director, who blocked Microsoft's Xbox-Activision merger, previously worked for a Sony law firm...
Mueller has since claimed that said the senior director was a central voice in getting the ABK deal blocked..."
https://www.windowscentral.com/gami...-previously-worked-for-a-sony-google-law-firm
Something stinks at the CMA.
Mueller has since claimed that said the senior director was a central voice in getting the ABK deal blocked..."
https://www.windowscentral.com/gami...-previously-worked-for-a-sony-google-law-firm
Something stinks at the CMA.
cireza
Member
Making so much sense should be illegal.
EU explains Microsoft Activision deal approval - and why it disagrees with the UK's block
The boss of the European Commission has explained in detail why her agency approved Microsoft's $68.7bn Activision Bliz…www.eurogamer.net
The boss of the European Commission has explained in detail why her agency approved Microsoft's $68.7bn Activision Blizzard deal - and why she thinks the UK was wrong to block it.
In a speech given yesterday, European Commission executive vice president Margrethe Vestager laid out the regulator's own "call of duty" to only block buyouts when really necessary.
"Merger control is by nature a forward-looking exercise," Vestager said. "But that power comes with challenges... And to make things even more complicated, for global deals many authorities are predicting the future, at the same time. Of course we cooperate, but disagreements sometimes happen. No less recently than last week, we cleared the Microsoft/Activision deal, while the CMA decided to block it."
Vestager said she believes regulators such as the EU's European Commission and the UK's Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) should not be concerned with how decisions are perceived.
"Currently, some people think that agencies should either block or clear mergers. Nothing in between. So if you block you are a 'tough' enforcer. If you clear, well, let's just say you are not perceived as tough.
"That is not our policy," Vestager continued. "Framing enforcement in a binary decision (to clear or to block) is limitative. There will be cases where competition issues cannot really be solved by a divestment, and the market will not necessarily be better off if we block the merger.
"Occasionally, we reach decisions that are not aligned with every other jurisdiction. So I'd like to take a few moments to set out why we believe the Microsoft/Activision merger - with appropriate remedies - is not only compatible with the Single Market, but in fact represents a positive development."
Vestager discussed the decision her agency came to when deciding the Microsoft deal's impact on console competition - something the EC and CMA ultimately agreed upon - and the conclusion that Xbox owning Call of Duty would not unfairly impede PlayStation.
"The overall market share for Microsoft and Activision was generally low in Europe. It's only when you look at specific segments like 'shooter games' that you get to above 20 percent. And for consoles, Sony sells about four times more PlayStations than Microsoft sells Xboxes. With this context, we did not think the merger raised a vertical issue.
"I am told Call of Duty is a very popular shooter franchise," Vestager continued. "But we found that Microsoft would probably not shoot itself in the foot by stopping sales of Call of Duty games to the much larger PlayStation player base. Our colleagues at the CMA agreed with us and ultimately reached the same conclusion."
Vestager then discussed the issue of cloud gaming, the other major area of contention for regulators - the one where Europe and the UK ultimately disagreed.
"We accepted a 10-year free license to consumers to allow them to stream all Activision games for which they have a license via any cloud service," Vestager explained. "And why did we do this instead of blocking the merger? Well, to us, this solution fully addressed our concerns. And on top of that, it had significant procompetitive effects.
"Consider the pre-merger situation, where Activision does not license its games to cloud services. So, in this case, the remedy opens the door for smaller cloud services in the EU to offer big games on their platforms, widening choice for gamers. The merits of this remedy was recognised across the spectrum - by developers, by cloud gaming providers, by distributors and of course also by consumer groups. And that is because it unlocked the potential of the cloud market."
The UK's regulator disagreed with this assessment - and has already commented on why it came to a different conclusion to its European colleagues. In short, the CMA did not want to predict and police the cloud gaming market over the next decade and beyond, even with Microsoft's proposed remedies in place.
It's a decision which has left the UK as a global outlier on its assessment of the deal - and something the UK's own politicians do not seem particularly thrilled by - saying it has raised questions over whether the UK is "open for business". Microsoft and Activision, of course, have also made their own feelings clear.
Microsoft has now lodged its formal appeal to the CMA, beginning what will be a lengthy process of seeking a fresh ruling.
As for Europe, Vestager's regulator seems comfortable with its conclusion.
"Our mission is... to find solutions that keep the game fair for all players," Vestager concluded, "working closely together with sister agencies as we do so. That is our Call of Duty."
MasterCornholio
Member
Thats only with the current deal. If the sit down in July make a new one that can change.
bluecowboys
Banned
Highly doubt the CMA has anymore data that they can use that isn't already presented. Which is already a weak case and full of errors being pointed out by everyone. MS will prove the CMA wrong and the CMA will pay for everything.
The Applicant seeks the following relief from the Tribunal:
1. An order pursuant to section 120(5)(a) of the Act quashing the Decision in its entirety;
2. An order that the Respondent pays the Applicant's costs of this Application;
3. Such further or other relief as the Tribunal deems fit
Also, the CMA is looking to stay independent and gaining more power from the government. If it is caught abusing their powers, the government will intervene for sure.
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DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
Too much sense in this from beginning to end. I'm not for tge purchase but UK looks dumb and that's where I'm from.
Bitmap Frogs
Mr. Community
Industry consolidation is bad.
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
So literally - we disagree with this so it’s a procedural/irrational error
I would also have agreed if the CMA hadn't walk back their calculations once before already.
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Ronin_7
Member
Lmao these guys never learn.
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Y'all ... we have a 1000 page OP for all this already.
bluecowboys
Banned
CMA loses about 33% of their appeals which is extremely high for a regulator. MS also has the best lawyers money can buy and a solid case that is better than the average cases that are presented to CAT. If the CMA decision is overturned by CAT they will have to pay for MS appeal and they will have to follow CAT's instructions on how to proceed with their next findings. Which is just a polite way of CAT dictating the CMA's next decision essentially.
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Bernardougf
Gold Member
Feeling Era vibes in this thread ... ewwww
MasterCornholio
Member
I would also have agreed if the CMA hadn't walk back their calculations once before already.
They tossed that argument out the window. Plus they admitted their mistakes. With that said I wouldn't be surprised if they checked everything else for errors in case it pops up in their other argument.
We will just have to wait and see if they made a mistake or not.
CoreyFlawless
Member
Some how, I’m starting to believe this may go thru. I assume once cma block it. It was done. But once reading the eu thing. Idk. Feel like it putting pressure on the cma. But like, isn’t cma say is final. Can the uk gov force the chain or another agency that watch and make sure maybe cma not be crazy or whatever? Idk how all this work. Idk, I guess if the ftc agree to pass it. I assume it some joe gonna get pass. If cma the only one trying to block. Idk
twilo99
Member
something is fishy over at the UK regulatory body
MasterCornholio
Member
No the UK government won't force the CMA to drop this.
First the CAT needs to review the appeal. Once they do they will either accept or deny it. If they accept it they will determine what is wrong with the CMAs decision. Once that happens they will send it back to the CMA. Once that happens the CMA will make a decision on what concessions are necessary. The merger can still fail if Microsoft doesn't accept the concessions required.
drganon
Member
CoreyFlawless
Member
Gotcha. So they’re still a chance. Crazy. Assume this was done when cma block it. Just wish this goes by faster. Like to have this done as fast as possible.
MasterCornholio
Member
There is but it won't work the way some are thinking. Basically the CAT or the UK Goverment won't force the CMA to drop the block without any concessions. It's up to Microsoft to accept the concessions if they are given the chance to.
CoreyFlawless
Member
Gotcha.
MasterCornholio
Member
Yep there's a lot of good information in this thread. Unfortunately its going to be difficult to find some of it due to how long it is.
aries_71
Junior Member
The best thing about this deal is seeing how, all of a sudden, Gaffers are extremely concerned by the future of cloud gaming. Unbelievable, since every post about cloud gaming at Neogaf in the past was generally derided as a totally worthless enterprise no serious gamer would ever consider. Add to that the extreme Gaf concern about the future well being of COD, a franchise that Gaf considers dude-bro territory since it’s initial release. The amazing power of this deal. 
Ar¢tos
Member
The 2 biggest markets for MS are the ones blocking (or moving to block) the deal.
If only that meant something....
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
The fact they labelled every game pass subscribers as a cloud gamer instantly raised eyebrows.
MasterCornholio
Member
The best thing about this deal is seeing how, all of a sudden, Gaffers are extremely concerned by the future of cloud gaming. Unbelievable, since every post about cloud gaming at Neogaf in the past was generally derided as a totally worthless enterprise no serious gamer would ever consider. Add to that the extreme Gaf concern about the future well being of COD, a franchise that Gaf considers dude-bro territory since it’s initial release. The amazing power of this deal.
I think the only thing that matters is if it's approved or denied. And that's up to Microsoft to decide.
CoreyFlawless
Member
Yeah. I didn’t try. Once I heard it was block. I quit paying attention to it for the most part. Till I show the post bout what eu say about it. So I come back here and idk.
MasterCornholio
Member
Honestly what matters is if the CMA block is successful. It doesn't matter what the EC says all it takes is a successful block and it won't go through. We are just waiting to see if the block is successful.
SoloKingRobert
Banned
Why are we listening to some Rookies from the EU. Neogaf experts like
Topher
and
DeepEnigma
knows the fundamental aspects of the law.
Topher
and
DeepEnigma
knows the fundamental aspects of the law.suspicious mind
Member
Nobody knows whats going to happen dont let anyone tell you otherwise. We re pretty much in uncharted territory here so its hard to predict whats going to happen.
Logically the cat intervenes and allows the deal but its the uk were talking bout. That country loves to shoot itself in the foot for some reason.
bluecowboys
Banned
They were trying to block the deal any means necessary just for political reasons.
They know their case is weak and full of flaws. Also, one huge thing everyone is forgetting about is CMA dismissing / ignoring any remedies MS presents. That is unlawful.
reinking
Gold Member
Why are we listening to some Rookies from the EU. Neogaf experts like
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