Ass of Can Whooping
Member
Times didn't change. What changed was who MS was targeting.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)
- Status
Times didn't change. What changed was who MS was targeting.
bentanchorbolt
Banned
There is no evidence to suggest that. You guys realize that ABK is being purchased for $70b USD by one of the largest companies on the entire planet. ABK is the largest 3rd party publisher on the planet, and MS chief rival, Sony, themselves are only worth $20b more than this deal. If you can't see why MS is facing roadblocks and scrutiny here then you aren't being objective to the facts.
Last edited:
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Seriously. Some low ass IQ takes in here.
The_Mike
I cry about SonyGaf from my chair in Redmond, WA
Xbox is the minority of Microsoft, while Playstation is the majority of Sony.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Yes, that is true.
After Zenimax, and the way Microsoft/Xbox behaved in terms of their exclusivity, things have become difficult for Xbox to acquire further studios.
This is Microsoft's own fault, however. Having said that, I expect smaller acquisitions by Xbox to go through easily.
bentanchorbolt
Banned
I'm not sure how that is relevant here.
That's why they'd be fools to trust behavioral remedies. MS won't care about a couple million in fines if that's the cost of making COD exclusive somehow.Yes, that is true.
After Zenimax, and the way Microsoft/Xbox behaved in terms of their exclusivity, things have become difficult for Xbox to acquire further studios.
This is Microsoft's own fault, however. Having said that, I expect smaller acquisitions by Xbox to go through easily.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
bentanchorbolt
Banned
This thread makes me feel bad to be a primary Xbox fan just based on some of the stuff I'm reading from my fellow green rats.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Those behavioral remedies are a long shot anyway.
The CMA has made clear that they don't believe behavioral remedies would work in this case. However, Microsoft is welcome to propose and change CMA's mind.
- So, first of all, Microsoft needs to convince the CMA that behavioral remedies would even work in the first place.
- Then MS needs to propose behavioral remedies that would be in line with the SLC and achieve the same goals
- One part of the SLC is console parity. In other words, the multiplatform existence of all ABK games (including COD) in perpetuity (no 10-year deals).
- The second part is even tricker, which is about the console cloud gaming. They would have to put ABK games, especially COD, on all cloud services: Amazon Luna, GeForce, PS Plus, Ubisoft+, Shadow, etc in perpetuity. In addition, they will also have to put it in writing that ABK games and COD will be available on all future entrants in the cloud gaming market (how do you even write it lol).
X-Wing
Member
The Lies of Phil - a bedtime story - PART I
During the last few years Phil Spencer has spent a lot of time giving interviews trying to build the narrative that Xbox's change of focus from hardware to services was a granted positive to Xbox as well as for the rest of the industry. He also made several other allegations regarding Microsoft's plans for the industry. A lot of the things that Phil Said seem to have blown up on his face yesterday when the CMA released their provisional findings concerning the Activision deal.
Let's dig into some of them.
1. Xbox boss says Facebook and Amazon are its main gaming competitors
Phil has argued before that Xbox's main rival in gaming were other big tech companies. Yet, when looking through CMA's document you will find no remedies targeting any concerns related to Facebook or Amazon. You could make an argument that this is about cloud gaming, but even then the CMA shows that xCloud is the leading game streaming platform. So Microsoft actually has an advantageous position over their rivals and the acquisition wouldn't protect the gaming industry from them but simply strengthen Microsoft's number 1 place.
2. Game Pass drives game sales
Phil has also exhaustively repeated that Game Pass drives game sales. This is only partially true, apparently, yes maybe gamers buy more DLC, but total game sales are, according to Microsoft itself, cannibalized by Game Pass.
3. Xbox MAUs were at 120 million, which is a new all-time high.
This is a tricky one. Microsoft loves to shout out loud that they have record MAUs but apparently this either isn't true or they manipulated numbers and lied to regulators as they have told the CMA that their MAU is lower than PlayStation's.
Stay tuned for Part II as I read through the 277 pages document.
During the last few years Phil Spencer has spent a lot of time giving interviews trying to build the narrative that Xbox's change of focus from hardware to services was a granted positive to Xbox as well as for the rest of the industry. He also made several other allegations regarding Microsoft's plans for the industry. A lot of the things that Phil Said seem to have blown up on his face yesterday when the CMA released their provisional findings concerning the Activision deal.
Let's dig into some of them.
1. Xbox boss says Facebook and Amazon are its main gaming competitors
Phil has argued before that Xbox's main rival in gaming were other big tech companies. Yet, when looking through CMA's document you will find no remedies targeting any concerns related to Facebook or Amazon. You could make an argument that this is about cloud gaming, but even then the CMA shows that xCloud is the leading game streaming platform. So Microsoft actually has an advantageous position over their rivals and the acquisition wouldn't protect the gaming industry from them but simply strengthen Microsoft's number 1 place.
2. Game Pass drives game sales
Phil has also exhaustively repeated that Game Pass drives game sales. This is only partially true, apparently, yes maybe gamers buy more DLC, but total game sales are, according to Microsoft itself, cannibalized by Game Pass.
3. Xbox MAUs were at 120 million, which is a new all-time high.
This is a tricky one. Microsoft loves to shout out loud that they have record MAUs but apparently this either isn't true or they manipulated numbers and lied to regulators as they have told the CMA that their MAU is lower than PlayStation's.
Stay tuned for Part II as I read through the 277 pages document.
bentanchorbolt
Banned
This is why people should spend more time playing games and less time worrying about what Phil and Jim have to say. Giving these CEOs rockstar status and hanging on their every word is a mistake. Their goal is to generate as much revenue as possible generally by whatever means they can get away with, and if that means they smile and say positive things when its not reality, they will.The Lies of Phil - a bedtime story - PART I
During the last few years Phil Spencer has spent a lot of time giving interviews trying to build the narrative that Xbox's change of focus from hardware to services was a granted positive to Xbox as well as for the rest of the industry. He also made several other allegations regarding Microsoft's plans for the industry. A lot of the things that Phil Said seem to have blown up on his face yesterday when the CMA released their provisional findings concerning the Activision deal.
Let's dig into some of them.
1. Xbox boss says Facebook and Amazon are its main gaming competitors
Phil has argued before that Xbox's main rival in gaming were other big tech companies. Yet, when looking through CMA's document you will find no remedies targeting any concerns related to Facebook or Amazon. You could make an argument that this is about cloud gaming, but even then the CMA shows that xCloud is the leading game streaming platform. So Microsoft actually has an advantageous position over their rivals and the acquisition wouldn't protect the gaming industry from them but simply strengthen Microsoft's number 1 place.
2. Game Pass drives game sales
Phil has also exhaustively repeated that Game Pass drives game sales. This is only partially true, apparently, yes maybe gamers buy more DLC, but total game sales are, according to Microsoft itself, cannibalized by Game Pass.
3. Xbox MAUs were at 120 million, which is a new all-time high.
This is a tricky one. Microsoft loves to shout out loud that they have record MAUs but apparently this either isn't true or they manipulated numbers and lied to regulators as they have told the CMA that their MAU is lower than PlayStation's.
Stay tuned for Part II as I read through the 277 pages document.
Last edited:
Orbital2060
Member
So how is that going to work? Activision just going to stop making videogames and refund all stockholders and so on?
I knew what you meant with it, but its such a ridiculous thing to say when all the time its clear you HAVE to say that because its the final piece of argument to make in order to make the whole CMA cabal to work out.
Bye bye then Activision, you made some great videogames.
Thanks CMA and Sony.
Good job.
/s
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
I think they should just sack it off and go buy some really good timed exclusives.
Save the 69 bill and invest in a few loss leaders for a few years.
Invest in SOAs over Xmas period and shave 100 to 150 off a series x. Try that for a few years and if you still can't make a dent in sonys market share just accept defeat lol
Save the 69 bill and invest in a few loss leaders for a few years.
Invest in SOAs over Xmas period and shave 100 to 150 off a series x. Try that for a few years and if you still can't make a dent in sonys market share just accept defeat lol
Poltz
Member
69 billion for ABK doesnt mean 69 billion for Xbox though. ABK offered a unique profile to kickstart Xbox mobile store and A&B drive game pass subs. It’s safe to say Series X is in the minority of the Series consoles so a 100-150 cut could be too much.
Last edited:
gothmog
Gold Member
Why not just go for the gold and buy Sony?
Ezekiel_
Banned
The Lies of Phil - a bedtime story - PART I
During the last few years Phil Spencer has spent a lot of time giving interviews trying to build the narrative that Xbox's change of focus from hardware to services was a granted positive to Xbox as well as for the rest of the industry. He also made several other allegations regarding Microsoft's plans for the industry. A lot of the things that Phil Said seem to have blown up on his face yesterday when the CMA released their provisional findings concerning the Activision deal.
Let's dig into some of them.
1. Xbox boss says Facebook and Amazon are its main gaming competitors
Phil has argued before that Xbox's main rival in gaming were other big tech companies. Yet, when looking through CMA's document you will find no remedies targeting any concerns related to Facebook or Amazon. You could make an argument that this is about cloud gaming, but even then the CMA shows that xCloud is the leading game streaming platform. So Microsoft actually has an advantageous position over their rivals and the acquisition wouldn't protect the gaming industry from them but simply strengthen Microsoft's number 1 place.
2. Game Pass drives game sales
Phil has also exhaustively repeated that Game Pass drives game sales. This is only partially true, apparently, yes maybe gamers buy more DLC, but total game sales are, according to Microsoft itself, cannibalized by Game Pass.
3. Xbox MAUs were at 120 million, which is a new all-time high.
This is a tricky one. Microsoft loves to shout out loud that they have record MAUs but apparently this either isn't true or they manipulated numbers and lied to regulators as they have told the CMA that their MAU is lower than PlayStation's.
Stay tuned for Part II as I read through the 277 pages document.
Thread worthy
This only makes it worse.
mansoor1980
Member
KAZ trained JIM RYAN really well
Ezekiel_
Banned
They could host a really good Sting concert
SneakersSO
Member
Key difference here - Office was already the monopoly marketshare leader in enterprise software/services *before* they turned office into a sub service. There were almost no viable competitors operating in that arena, although right now, GSuite is eating up quite a bit of their pie, and they offer out office services for free even. And as far as big pubs are concerned, its pretty clear based on what we're seeing with the CMA/FTC/EU that they probably, at most, are only going to get away with purchasing one more big pub and thats it.
Also, the big pubs we primarily are talking about all operate, like I said in my original post, in core gaming - console/PC games with AA/AAA budgets. The majority of revenue coming in from gaming, and the overwhelming larger slice of the user pie, is currently in mobile, something that GamePass doesn't offer any incentive for. The consumer has plenty of places to go - Sony is going anywhere, and if we enter a scenario where MS is allowed to just consolidated while uncontested, Sony will also move to massively expand their production output and maintain their position (From/Capcom/SE will all get bought if Sony has to).
These two situations (office/GP) are nowhere near close enough. GP's scope and potential userbase is infinitely more limited than Office, its never been in a market dominant position as Office has been, and Office has never had to operate deep in the red in order for it to sustain itself, which GP currently (and for the foreseeable future) does.
Again, no idea how you convince a mobile user to sub to GP, but nothing either in their slate, or what they'd potentially get from ATVI would move that needle. They don't even have a GP app on the App/Play Store, let alone any meaningful way to put out a Mobile GP tier without having to shell out a cut to Apple/Google, a cut which is currently what is preventing GP from being pushed onto Steam/PSN.
Current analysis i've seen pegs the core gaming audience somewhere around 200-300m users, and thats including Nintendo and Steam in the mix. The larger issue with core gaming is that its user demo has been steadily getting older, and although Nintendo is bringing in a significant number of new users on the young-side of the spectrum, as those users have gotten older, they routinely go into mobile gaming primarily, with some core games coming up as a secondary gaming interest for them. That isn't to say that core games is in anyway doomed, since the revenue this userbase can generate is still unbelievable, and has only gone up as this demo has aged and their disposable income has increased.
As for Cloud - while some analysts continue suggesting that Cloud will become the defacto standard for the core games industry, there has simply never been some market indicator that its being adopted or generating profit. For MS, it makes sense cause it bolsters their Azure vertical integration and serves as a nice test bed for the cloud suite, but as far as a userbase is concerned, Cloud simply may as well not exist.
Last edited:
Banjo64
cumsessed
The timing isn’t there now, but they should have paid the couple of hundred million for the Tomb Raider IP, Crystal Dynamics, Square Enix Montreal and Edios Montreal.
Could have bought a minority stake in Asobo who wanted to retain independence. Instead Asobo sold to an investment firm.
Could have funded small promising teams like Team Cherry, Moon, Playtonic (before Tencent did) and Gears For Breakfast. Just going for the ‘easy win’, what a backfire if indeed they don’t end up with CoD.
X-Wing
Member
Trying to cast shade by making up suspicions of corruption between PlayStation and the UK government because they can't cope.
Back a little in time and Microsoft was caught red handed bribing politicians and is constantly spending money lobbying regulators.
www.reuters.com
www.theregister.com
Back a little in time and Microsoft was caught red handed bribing politicians and is constantly spending money lobbying regulators.
Microsoft to pay criminal fine to settle U.S. anti-bribery charges
Microsoft Corp agreed on Monday to pay about $25.3 million, including a criminal fine, to settle U.S. charges it made improper payments that were used to bribe government officials in Hungary and other countries.
www.reuters.com
Microsoft accused of bribery in Middle East and Africa
Ex-senior director also claims Feds have seen evidence and done nothing
www.theregister.com
Last edited:
FIREKNIGHT2029
Member
Phil is a conman. I don’t want to see anyone quote him again like they are quoting Jesus or something. Everyone shits on Jim Ryan for being a shady character (rightfully so) but Phil is on par and even arguably worse than Jim and people eat up every bullshit he says.The Lies of Phil - a bedtime story - PART I
During the last few years Phil Spencer has spent a lot of time giving interviews trying to build the narrative that Xbox's change of focus from hardware to services was a granted positive to Xbox as well as for the rest of the industry. He also made several other allegations regarding Microsoft's plans for the industry. A lot of the things that Phil Said seem to have blown up on his face yesterday when the CMA released their provisional findings concerning the Activision deal.
Let's dig into some of them.
1. Xbox boss says Facebook and Amazon are its main gaming competitors
Phil has argued before that Xbox's main rival in gaming were other big tech companies. Yet, when looking through CMA's document you will find no remedies targeting any concerns related to Facebook or Amazon. You could make an argument that this is about cloud gaming, but even then the CMA shows that xCloud is the leading game streaming platform. So Microsoft actually has an advantageous position over their rivals and the acquisition wouldn't protect the gaming industry from them but simply strengthen Microsoft's number 1 place.
2. Game Pass drives game sales
Phil has also exhaustively repeated that Game Pass drives game sales. This is only partially true, apparently, yes maybe gamers buy more DLC, but total game sales are, according to Microsoft itself, cannibalized by Game Pass.
3. Xbox MAUs were at 120 million, which is a new all-time high.
This is a tricky one. Microsoft loves to shout out loud that they have record MAUs but apparently this either isn't true or they manipulated numbers and lied to regulators as they have told the CMA that their MAU is lower than PlayStation's.
Stay tuned for Part II as I read through the 277 pages document.
He swindles the gaming media and the throngs of fanboys/fangirls that follow his every word in interviews and social media. He’s the same as Jim, he’s just a lot better at PR than Jim is and that’s why he gets away with it.
New documents in the ftc case
https://www.ftc.gov/legal-library/b...s/2210077-microsoftactivision-blizzard-matter
ABK subpoena'd Nintendo - https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/ft...ing-agreed-motion-for-extension-of-time_0.pdf
MS subpoena'd Google - https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/ft...-or-quash-orotherwise-respond-to-subpoena.pdf
https://www.ftc.gov/legal-library/b...s/2210077-microsoftactivision-blizzard-matter
ABK subpoena'd Nintendo - https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/ft...ing-agreed-motion-for-extension-of-time_0.pdf
MS subpoena'd Google - https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/ft...-or-quash-orotherwise-respond-to-subpoena.pdf
Last edited:
I appreciate your post. And there are certainly differences and hurdles MS would face, plus better competition. Where we fundamentally disagree, I think, is in terms of capacity to trust MS and our tolerance for risk on this. I cannot trust them at all after showing their spots with Bethesda and relying so heavily on PR that often seems suspect at best. And I do not think we should tolerate risk of them consolidating the industry. With enough money hurdles go away. And I'll never believe Phil got MS to spend damn near 100 Billion over what, 2 years, without convincing someone that the investment would pay off with something much more substantial than a boost to market share.
SneakersSO
Member
Except CoD wouldn't really stem the tide on their churn rate. Sure, the MP suite of CoD is still locked behind its yearly price tag, but the far and away bigger deal for CoD is Warzone, the F2P mode. I'm sure they'll come up with something should they need to, but right now, F2P titles just aren't bringing and keeping users in GP. The big value offer GP gives a user is a means by which you can bypass the asking price of brand new, AA/AAA games. F2P games can simply be accessed without issue.
As long as the majority of big MP titles continue releasing with some sort of Free Entry point, they'll never be the magnet for GP that MS would hope they'd be. That isn't to say that we wouldn't see some growth if they did include CoD in it, but at most we'd see a growth spike similar to what the pandemic did in 2020, at most.
jm89
Member
drganon
Member
Trying to cast shade by making up suspicions of corruption between PlayStation and the UK government because they can't cope.
Back a little in time and Microsoft was caught red handed bribing politicians and is constantly spending money lobbying regulators.
Microsoft to pay criminal fine to settle U.S. anti-bribery charges
Microsoft Corp agreed on Monday to pay about $25.3 million, including a criminal fine, to settle U.S. charges it made improper payments that were used to bribe government officials in Hungary and other countries.Microsoft accused of bribery in Middle East and Africa
Ex-senior director also claims Feds have seen evidence and done nothing
That idlesloth guy just seems like a less obnoxious Jez Corden.
Banjo64
cumsessed
Ah yes, blatantly circumventing government regulation - what could go wrong?
Banjo64
cumsessed
SneakersSO
Member
Sure, but Phil Spencer over-promising and under-delivering is a story that can be traced back through his entire tenure at MS circa 2008. And while the pitch he made in 2017 that gave him the room to do all that he's done certainly made it sound like they'd be seeing outrageous growth, the current results are far from where they thought they'd be, and thats with the significant increase in investment he's asked for. MS wanted more Minecraft-type deals, which is the one and only move Spencer did that seemingly went well. Instead, the whole experiment has been a money pit. And with entertainment sub services growth now basically stalling (D+ just announced today they lost something like 2m users!), its pretty clear MS might wind up having a massive, expensive lemon of a business plan on their hands if they can't find a way to turn this whole mess around.
That all said, I appreciate the perspective being shared in this thread by you and many others. No one can truly predict how any of this will play out. I myself worry about the ramifications that all of MS' efforts will have had on the core gaming business once its all said and done. The only upside is seeing the massive gulf in receipts between Sony and Nintendo, and MS. They won't admit it outright, but its clear this direction isn't working out so far.
Last edited:
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Trying to cast shade by making up suspicions of corruption between PlayStation and the UK government because they can't cope.
Back a little in time and Microsoft was caught red handed bribing politicians and is constantly spending money lobbying regulators.
Microsoft to pay criminal fine to settle U.S. anti-bribery charges
Microsoft Corp agreed on Monday to pay about $25.3 million, including a criminal fine, to settle U.S. charges it made improper payments that were used to bribe government officials in Hungary and other countries.Microsoft accused of bribery in Middle East and Africa
Ex-senior director also claims Feds have seen evidence and done nothing
It's a cult.
Thirty7ven
Banned
The MAU number isn’t a lie per say. It’s just outside of their Xbox ecosystem, they count all the people playing Bethesda games and Minecraft on other ecosystems like Steam and PlayStation.
They do this to impress their shareholders who don’t understand where the numbers come from.
It’s MS what do you expect?
They do this to impress their shareholders who don’t understand where the numbers come from.
It’s MS what do you expect?
Last edited:
RCU005
Member
Thread worthy
Agreed, He should make a thread. Probably there’s much more info. This should even be covered by journalists. It’s amazing people praises Phil, when in reality he just says BS and make false promises.
Ass of Can Whooping
Member
Microsoft buys Actibliz. Shareholders get paid. Microsoft then has to sell the Activision segment
Try educating yourself before claiming something is ridiculous? Just a recommendation. It's done well for myself
Last edited:
Orbital2060
Member
Its not a cult when anyone can read and make up their own minds about the statements from competitors in the CADE inquiry.
Sony are the only competitor opposing the deal, and the only company that has a problem with Call of Duty being part of it.
Same competitors as in the CMA inquiry, where they chose to favor Sonys main points and arguments over everyone elses.
Thats not a cult, its common sense.
GHG
Member
So now they're just trying to drag everyone into this.
It will be interesting to see what Nintendo have said regarding this in private to regulators.
In this situation common sense requires reading, which you've clearly failed at.
Last edited:
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
X-Wing
Member
False! Both Google and Nvidia have spoken.
GHG
Member
That's literally what I've thought for a while reading his posts.
Either it's that or he's being briefed by the same people. I'm not sure which situation is more sad to be honest.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Ezekiel_
Banned
Hypothetically, who could actually buy Activision?
We know it can't be a platform holder, for obvious reasons, so Sony, Nintendo, Amazon, Epic, Valve can't be considered, so who's left?
EA, TakeTwo, Embracer Group, Tencent? They're the only ones supporting multiple store fronts and are device agnostics.
Last edited:
Cheezewizz
Banned
That's an interesting question. What if Tencent, EA, Embracer etc... either can't afford or aren't interested in just the Activision part? Would MS be required to keep lowering the price until someone bites? Would it just be spun off into it's own separate company?
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
Probably those names or they just become a new company
Dr_Ifto
Member
Depends on the price, but EA or Ubisoft could merge with them, could be Tencent, could be Sony, Amazon or NetEase
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked