Interesting observation and quite logical with just one caveat...we don't know how bad it's inside the house of Xbox yet (to say they can't afford to make Xbox One exclusives with absolute certainty going forward).
Sure. Like Puddin' said though, all we really have to go by is what Phil said, which was basically, "If this means we can afford to make these games, that's a
good thing, amirite?" He could've given a lot of vague platitudes, like, "Obviously, we want to make as much money, err, bring these amazing experiences to everyone we possibly can," or, "We did say we want you to be able to play your games everywhere, and that obviously includes PC. Please be excited for the upcoming Windows Phone version of Quantum Break."
But he's actually seemingly rather candid, effectively sitting Bone owners down and saying, "I know this seems kinda terrible — and you're not completely wrong — but you gotta believe that I'm doing you a
favor here." Perhaps it's just BS to help sell the transition, but if he was merely painting pictures, you'd think he'd have chosen a nicer landscape than
that one.
We do agree however that at the very least it's bad enough that a shift in strategy (that is going to weaken the Xbox console business) has taken place. No way to sugar coat it. The business is predicated on adoption, PERIOD. Anything that weakens that in a multitude of ways like this does just serves as a signal of things to come. A company in the console business acts actively to improve adoption, not weaken the prospects of hardware adoption. This move plays into competitor hands like Sony's and plays into consumers with PC's who no longer have a need to adopt an Xbox One (hardware cut $$, Xbox Live $$, third-party royalty cut, any other miscellaneous royalty cut aka the business). That and the context in which all of this is developing - Xbox's diminished brand in both the U.S and much worse worldwide.... it all adds up.
Right, and Phil's argument — potentially one he's even making internally — is that rather than simply cut bait as MS would typically do with a failing project, they may be able to capitalize on some of the good will and brand recognition that XBox
does have, by hopefully transitioning some of the console users to the W10 store, but more generally, capitalize on the idea that the general public has that XBox means games. When you want games for your new phone, you go to XBox, because that's where the games are. Even if those XBox console gamers end up becoming PlayStation console gamers rather than XBox computer gamers, MS don't want them saying anything worse than, "XBox is still cool, but it's just not really for me anymore; their phone games are pretty fun for what they are though, so I play those at school and stuff, obviously," to their hundreds of millions of potential XBox phone gamers.
I do believe that if Phil is any sort of savior, he's the savior that saved the public-relations side of the Xbox brand. Cause the Xbox console business is certainly not going to be it by the looks of it.
Yeah, it's kinda hard to say. Like I said, I do sorta get the impression that he's the one campaigning for the existence of AAA development within the XBox program — since Nadella seems to be primarily focused on using gaming to make their mobile offerings more attractive, without so much as a mention of Windows
itself, actually — but it's hard to say whether he's doing that out of a sense of loyalty to the users that MS traditionally see as being one step below their "customers," or whether it's simply a function of the fact that AAA dev teams are what he
has right now, and he wants to seem useful while he puts some mobile offerings together. Of course, salvaging what they can of the mind share factors in here as well. /shrug
Not really. You can apply that logic to any ecosystem regardless of its performance in isolation. Let's for example assume SFV happened, but is reliant on the existence of the PC port in order to make sense. Does this then say a lot about the state (and future) of the PS4?
Err, that's an entirely different situation. First of all, SFV is a Capcom game, and
they decide what platforms they're going to support.
They chose to support PS4 and PC, and they chose
not to support Wii U and Bone. Was any indication given by anyone
ever that the game is only coming to PC because that was the only/best way to ensure it broke even?
An analogous situation would be if Sony announced that Uncharted and Horizon are launching day-and-date on PC, and when asked why, they said it was to ensure they could afford to continue making them. Yes, I would actually be quite concerned if they were to do that.
Maybe a $40m Quantum Break is feasible on the Xbox One alone, but a $40m Sunset Overdrive isn't. Maybe a $60m Quantum Break becomes feasible with the addition of Windows 10. There's no point trying to simplify everything down as far as "the platform can't sustain an exclusive"... that's just stupid.
Well, sorta. Obviously, it's fairly complicated, but at the end of the day, yes, it really does boil down to a yes-or-no decision that needs to be made. Let's say QB cost $40M and it wasn't gonna break even on Bone, but they port it to Windows for free to double their revenues, and that means it will break even. So then that means they
could've made it Bone-exclusive, but they'd have just needed to restrict their budget to $20M instead, right? Except if they only put half as much work in to it, they'll only get half as much game out of it, which will in turn reduce its appeal, and their sales, and now they're back to not breaking even again. You wanna play Quantum Break, not a cut-rate knock-off, right? See the problem here?
That's not to say Bone is incapable of supporting any exclusives whatsoever. A game like Tetris would be cheap to make and have potentially high sales, for example. Ori may well have turned a profit. But lower budget games not only have less initial risk, they don't need many sales to cover that risk. As budgets increase, risk/reward tends to go down, especially when you're trying to offer something "unique," which basically means, "not having broad appeal." While some exclusives would be feasible, Phil said the bigger stuff like Sea of Thieves was coming to W10 to ensure they'd cover their budget, and then games like QB got delayed and are now sim-shipping as well.
But again, I'm mostly just going by what Phil said, because yeah, the
possibilities are sorta endless…
I have to start the Xbox app every time. I just looked at the settings in the app and there is no option to automatically launch it on login.
Huh. I was actually thinking that was a missed opportunity for them, and kind of a PITA for the user, but I just looked at Twitter.app, and it's actually the same. I suppose I could add it to my Login Items myself, but I never really log out anyway, and if I'm forced to for some reason, OS X is pretty good about getting me back to where I was.
I think you're grossly underestimating the potential affects of repeatedly drawing in consumers to a store and cross sells. I remember Jeff Bezos saying like 10 years ago around 35% of their sales were from cross sells. They say the easiest time to upset someone is when they have their wallet open.
No, I'm familiar with how retail and selling in general work, and I'm a happy Prime user. What I'm saying is that there are a lot better things you can spend your money on to lure people in to your store than AAA game development. Any or all of the things you mentioned would be good, for example. That's why we see retailers do that stuff, yes. What we
don't see is retailers making exclusive AAA games to lure people in to their stores. Hell, not even
Valve do that.
Since MS has a strong lineup of game IP it seems like a good place to start building more Windows Store consumers. Over time they may start offering additional exclusives (lord help GAF the first time they do a third-party timed release in there). They're starting at the ground floor with this thing, so it makes sense to leverage what they can to drive as many people in it as possible.
This part I mostly agree with, actually. As I said above, Phil already has a bunch of AAA teams, working on a bunch of AAA projects. There's no sense in flushing all of that money away now that it's already been spent, so may as well use these projects to lure more folks in to the new store. And I've no doubt that these games will indeed lure more users to the store. My only question is whether or not W10 and Bone users combined will spend enough to sustain the
continued development of these games. QB is coming to W10, and that's great, because Bone alone couldn't even justify QB1 much less ensure QB2, but does adding W10 actually ensure a QB2? It'll certainly help, but looking at traditional PC revenue share for games of this sort, I'm skeptical this will really alter the equation greatly.
Additionally, we can't forget that Nadella is the one who pointed out that gaming is the biggest category in terms of time spent and revenue in the mobile world. In other words, a successful digital ecosystem has to have games, so they need to get as many gamers using it as possible to show devs it's worth making more games for.
I sometimes feel like I'm the only one
not forgetting that. He said gaming was important to
mobile. He didn't even say it was important to PC, actually. So I'm really not sure where people are getting, "So obviously, consoles aren't going
anywhere," from that. He said they need to make Candy Crush and Trivia Crack, and that was pretty much it. =/
I read your amusement park analogy like 7 times and it doesn't make sense in any context I can imagine, but couldn't make sense of it.
Roller coasters are exciting and unique and tons of fun, but they're also ridiculously expensive to build and maintain, and while people are eager to ride, nobody wants to spend $100 a pop to do so. That means it's really hard to make money in the roller coaster business; best you can reasonably hope for is to collect enough money that you at least break even. So those are the AAA exclusive games in our analogy; expensive and exciting, but not necessarily super profitable.
So now you're bringing joy to millions, which is great, but you still don't really have much of a
business. Sure, you charge admission to get in the gate for the day, but as expensive as a ticket is, it really mostly just covers the costs of building and maintaining the rides themselves. So you buy a plastic souvenir cup for a nickel, pay someone a dime to fill it with 3¢ worth of soda, and sell it for $7. People buy it not because it's so delicious or just a great bargain, but rather because they're thirsty and they're not gonna leave the park just to go home and get a drink of water. Concessions and souvenirs are the third-party games in our analogy; they're the real source of the platform holder's income, because the product costs them effectively nothing, making it pure profit. They just maintain the coasters and let the real money earn itself.
And we can actually take our analogy a bit further. Through the magic of speed-pass technology, we can actually track individual users throughout the park, and see who rides which rides. Sure enough, we can clearly see that only certain punters are really interested in the steel coasters, while others focus primarily on the woodies. Similarly, most users avoid coasters that go upside-down, but there are some who seem to ride little else. We even have a couple of weirdos that just ride the bumper cars all day, mostly with the other weirdos. Then the wise members of SalesGAF come along and examine the receipts, nod knowingly, and say, "See? These roller coasters get all of the attention, but nobody really
cares about them; even the most popular one was ridden by less than a third of the people who paid to get in. It's pretty clear that everyone is actually here for the over-priced, poorly mixed fountain drinks; they attach at like 90%, son, and that's the same
no matter whose park we look at."
This would still depend on the criteria they're using. You have to launch the Xbox App manually if you want to do something directly with it... however if someone else sends you a message or invite etc, it'll always be ready to notify you, even if you haven't launched the app since the last reboot.
Oh, so you
are always logged in to Live? That actually makes more sense to me; I figured it'd be integrated like iCloud, GameCenter, etc. where you just set up your account, and it tries to make itself as available as it can. Like, I'm pretty sure I can receive iMessages even when the app itself isn't running.
So in some ways, they're too late to the game. Last thing they want is Valve making SteamOS a viable alternative because you basically lose the entire PC gaming audience and their Windows marketshare plummets.
They're certainly going to need to tread lightly, yes. Windows is still dominant, but it doesn't have the stranglehold on the market it had in years past. Someone posted that fanfic saying Windows has a 90% share, but if true, that's actually a pretty significant drop from where they sat a few years ago, and even more troublesome for MS, if 10% of people aren't using Windows, that means that way more than 10% realize it's an
option, and, "There
are no other options," has always been the cornerstone of Microsoft's successes.
IE did come very late to the party and still destroyed Netscape by being bundled in windows back then.
It was only when it become so behind Firefox and Chrome that it lose ground, and even so it took a few years.
Err, it was only when the governments of the world stepped in and forced MS to stop abusing their Windows monopoly that IE started to lose share…
Do you know how their cross-play works?
That should answer you why it took until now to implement.
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They are still strangers though... hell, they don't even speak the same language and require a translator whenever they need to accomplish anything together (i.e. bespoke online solution such as CFN).
Windows is just happy work with absolutely anybody... but it doesn't know them, or give a shit about what they're doing at any other time.
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