I share your view on this issue. They essentially just need a 1 in 15 retention rate to stay revenue neutral I would think. But perhaps
D
DanielsM
is looking at it from a different angle. Perhaps he is implying its not really making money or even losing money currently due to costs. If that were true, then a 1-15 retention rate might be devastating. Or maybe the profitability point requires microtransactions which require large bases.
Personally, I really doubt that gamepass is in any sort of trouble. I think MS gaming side financial health only impacts the company and industry in two possible ways. Staying with or dropping hardware, and bringing gamepass to PlayStation or not. With Sony's move to their servers, and MS removing focus from certain data, I'm starting to believe I might really play Halo on a Playstation someday. If financial metrics show that gamepass will generate huge numbers there, hardware is losing money, and they control the hosting servers, it starts to look like a no brainer.
But no matter what, I do not see any risk to the next Xbox's launch. There's just no way they would pull out now.