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Morgan Stanley raises Battlefield 1 sales estimate to 15M; Titanfall 2 4 million

Theorry

Member
One of Electronic Arts' biggest franchises may have had an even better holiday than many analysts were first expecting.

Morgan Stanley, a Wall Street financial firm, is raising its 2017 earnings forecast for EA by 3 percent based on the performance of the publisher's World War I shooter Battlefield 1 and its mobile Star Wars game. Battlefield was so strong through EA's fiscal third quarter and the gift-giving holidays, that Morgan Stanely now estimates that the game surpassed 15 million copies sold.

”We [are raising] our Battlefield fiscal-third-quarter unit estimate by 2.6 million to 15 million," reads a note from Morgan Stanley's analyst team. ”[That's] based on strong third-party data trends and our proprietary price tracker showing Battlefield was the second least discounted title this holiday season, which we view as a sign of strength."

Battlefield was among the top-selling games of 2016 based on data from industry tracking firms like The NPD Group and GfK Chart-Track. The historical shooter was the No. 2 best-selling game in the United States, according to NPD (based on physical and some digital sales). It was only behind Activision's Call of Duty, which once again topped the charts with the release of Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare. But despite once again failing to overtake Call of Duty — something that few industry analysts expected to happen — Battlefield is in a great position for EA.

”Battlefield's outperformance this year sets up well for next year as it is likely to lead to higher digital map pack revenue," explained Morgan Stanley analysts.

The financial firm is less enthusiastic about Titanfall 2, which it has at 4 million units sold. That was also Morgan Stanley's initial estimate.

http://venturebeat.com/2017/01/23/morgan-stanley-raises-battlefield-1-sales-estimate-to-15-million/
 
There are so many franchises out there that would love to make it to 4 million units sold and these guys are "less enthusiastic" about it.
 

5taquitos

Member
There are so many franchises out there that would love to make it to 4 million and these guys are "less enthusiastic" about it.

Well I'm sure a lot of that 4 million came after the price was essentially cut in half.

Still, that's a great accomplishment and hopefully means we'll keep getting more Titanfall in the future.
 
BF1 was the second least discounted game this holiday season? I feel like it was constantly on sale for $27-35, and usually alongside TF2 for the same price.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
There are so many franchises out there that would love to make it to 4 million units sold and these guys are "less enthusiastic" about it.

They're "less enthusiastic" in that they didn't raise their initial expectation, like they did for Battlefield 1.
 

moai

Member
revenue must not be great for titanfall 2, i got the game for 24 usd just a month from launch.
 
As others have noted 4 million is a solid number on the surface, but revenue for it must be way down due to the extensive price cutting we've seen on TF2. That's not a great thing.

Let's hope the game legs well over the coming months because it's far too good of a game to not perform well. The team deserve to be able to make a 3rd entry.

Also BF1 is an absolute monster of course
 

noshten

Member
As I mentioned about the TF2 launch and the overreaction of GAF once again people overlooked that TF originally did well after being discounted. Being heavily discounted for Nov/Dec ensured it kept getting new players into the multiplayer.



They did the same with Titanfall - that's why I outlined that the launch date actually might make sense for them and people were overreacting. Simply put there were heavy discounts for the original game and that model might have played a role here.

Some much crow to be eaten in the - GI.biz Op-Ed: Titanfall 2 a "commercial failure," "a victim of chest-beating pride." thread
 
I really liked the last few Battlefield games but the recent history of launch issues made me wait, and the setting/time period doesn't appeal to me.

With it's sales success, I guess the wait will be even longer for the price to drop into my impulse buy range.

Edit:$35 in the PSN Essentials sale... might have to bite now lol.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I did the within 1 month price-cut check on Slickdeals back when people were asking about this for PAL thread:

For games that had major price drops within a month of release this Fall:

Final Fantasy XV: $35
Battlefield 1: $35
Titanfall 2: $35
Dishonored 2: $20
Dead Rising 4: $40
Watch Dogs 2: $40
Paper Mario: Color Splash: $40
Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare: $35

If we go slightly over a month, we can add:

Gears of War 4: $30
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided: $20
Forza Horizon: $30
Mafia III: $35

It's plausible Titanfall 2 went on steeper discount after I made that post.

I'm certainly not saying that people are wrong about that meaning less money, just that it wasn't exactly... non-standard this Fall.
 

Theorry

Member
Call me weird. But to know if a MP game is doing good you can also check if a game gets 2xp soon after launch. BF1 didnt have a single 2XP event yet. Where TF2 and for example COD got one soon after launch and i believe some more after that.
 

dlauv

Member
Maybe he'll think twice about releasing it for the Switch. Maybe with split-screen since it's just a source engine game.
 

deadstar72

Neo Member
Not that 4 million is anything to be sneezed at , but it really deserved better. Hopefully it has decent legs like the first one
 
I did the within 1 month price-cut check on Slickdeals back when people were asking about this for PAL thread:



It's plausible Titanfall 2 went on steeper discount after I made that post.

I'm certainly not saying that people are wrong about that meaning less money, just that it wasn't exactly... non-standard this Fall.

It depends how you look at it. At the major retailers that are really going to affect things like NPD FFXV for example didn't go as low as $35. At GameStop, Wal-Mart, etc the lowest it went was $40-45.

Titanfall 2 was steeply on sale everywhere for extended periods of time at all retailers including very cheap on PSN. FFXV also was discounted on PSN but not as low.

The extent of Titanfall 2's drops are what stands out. GameStop and Wal-Mart had FFXV for example at full price very often in December. Outside of launch week TF2 has pretty much always been $40 - $45 or less
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Oh i never said it was a fact. Must say i dont really follow COD alot. But its weird that we didnt have any 2xp yet with BF1.
Wich is a way to get people back online to play. Guess its totally not needed with BF1. Same with a free weekend i believe.

I think one thing worth considering though is that they actually sell you experience boosts in Battlefield 1, so having double XP weekends hurts that: http://i.imgur.com/UKl7ULN.png

It depends how you look at it. At the major retailers that are really going to affect things like NPD FFXV for example didn't go as low as $35. At GameStop, Wal-Mart, etc the lowest it went was $40-45.

Titanfall 2 was steeply on sale everywhere for extended periods of time at all retailers including very cheap on PSN. FFXV also was discounted on PSN but not as low.

The extent of Titanfall 2's drops are what stands out. GameStop and Wal-Mart had FFXV for example at full price very often in December. Outside of launch week TF2 has pretty much always been $40 - $45 or less

Yes, Titanfall 2 obviously had strong price cuts in response to its sales, but I just wanted to note that a lot of games - while they didn't go as deep - do this during the holiday period.

Doom was similarly a game that price cut incredibly aggressively after release in an effort to get a large audience, and Dishonored and Deus Ex did this too.

However, you're still eating a lot into your margin when you do this. It's not a linear scale, so a lot of these games are not making good money on initial sales if they don't have strong post launch content, which I suspect will be impacting the industry going forward in ways beyond just your average DLC season pass.

The biggest giveaway though is not deep price cuts, but deep price cuts that are digital only. Those aren't planned with retailers in advance, and show signs of sales response. These definitely happened for Titanfall 2.
 
Yes, Titanfall 2 obviously had strong price cuts in response to its sales, but I just wanted to note that a lot of games - while they didn't go as deep - do this during the holiday period.

Doom was similarly a game that price cut incredibly aggressively after release in an effort to get a large audience, and Dishonored and Deus Ex did this too.

Oh yeah I agree. Aggressive price drops seem to be becoming more and more standard this year, and its an interesting thing to watch. My guess would be that for many of them they include microtransactions + heavy DLC now, and that publishers are willing to take a bit of a hit up front, to get a larger player base to possible start buying digital add ons for them. That's not obviously universally true, we are seeing single player games discounted as well, but I do think its a factor. Its for sure worth it if you are a major publisher to take maybe a $10 extra hit up front on the boxed game to maybe get someone to buy $20 of DLC for the game.
 

Kill3r7

Member
It depends how you look at it. At the major retailers that are really going to affect things like NPD FFXV for example didn't go as low as $35. At GameStop, Wal-Mart, etc the lowest it went was $40-45.

Titanfall 2 was steeply on sale everywhere for extended periods of time at all retailers including very cheap on PSN. FFXV also was discounted on PSN but not as low.

The extent of Titanfall 2's drops are what stands out. GameStop and Wal-Mart had FFXV for example at full price very often in December. Outside of launch week TF2 has pretty much always been $40 - $45 or less

I think the sale argument is a valid one but there not many IPs that can move 4 million units even if selling at half price. Deus Ex MD was on sale for $15 dollars at different points during the holiday season and it did not sell anywhere close to TF2.
 

Revas

Member
Seems like a pretty decent number all things considered. I can't help but wonder how well it would've done had the Tech Test been better received.
 

ZOONAMI

Junior Member
I did the within 1 month price-cut check on Slickdeals back when people were asking about this for PAL thread:



It's plausible Titanfall 2 went on steeper discount after I made that post.

I'm certainly not saying that people are wrong about that meaning less money, just that it wasn't exactly... non-standard this Fall.

Damn did Dishonored 2 completely bomb?
 

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
BF1 was the second least discounted game this holiday season? I feel like it was constantly on sale for $27-35, and usually alongside TF2 for the same price.

I feel like these quick price cuts are a terrible idea for the industry. It's essentially training us to wait a month.

You used to have to wait 6 months to get these sorts of deep discounts which was a quandary. Now, it's almost an automatic "wait".

I picked up a ton of games during the Xbone new years sale and spent like 120 bucks.
 

samn

Member
There are so many franchises out there that would love to make it to 4 million units sold and these guys are "less enthusiastic" about it.

Investors don't care about big game companies releasing games that can be said to have sold a lot more than indie titles. They care about profits. 4m sold isn't much profit compared to what they expect from EA
 
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