Support NeoGAF

[Kenpachii]

Lol 24Gb of Ram and 1$ per 1Gb aaaaaaaaaa, what tha hell is this, 24Gb is way much, i don't see that happening.
some fusion Drive (HDD + SSD combo)
between 16Gb - 20Gb of Ram
between 9Tf - 11Tf MAX (i'm being very generous right now)

Made a error there, i mostly post then change stuff for a while. so yea should not have posted it directly.

So the 1x had a BOM of about $375?
Yes but the RX5700 xt is retailing at $499, even with the Mark up taken into account, its in a different price league to the 580, the 8 core zen2 will be more expensive then the jaguars.

That's why i said 5700 and not XT. 7870 also wasn't the top model of that gen also.

Pretty sure a 7870 was around the 130-140 watt, the 5700 sits around 180 watt, with a die refresh and some optimisations they could get that probably also down towards 100w or lower clocks etc, like they did with the mobile 7870 which ended up in the PS5. focusing on a 230w 5700 xt seems kinda pointless, they get twice the heat out of that one. Unless they push some aggressive cooling or big box factor forwards and like to crank up performance.

 

[llien]

Cerny mentioned "justified" price increase. So $399 is ruled out, the question is, would it be $449 or $499.
I can't imagine them asking a higher price.

 

[ResilientBanana]

So the 1x had a BOM of about $375?
Yes but the RX5700 xt is retailing at $499, even with the Mark up taken into account, its in a different price league to the 580, the 8 core zen2 will be more expensive then the jaguars.

https://electronics360.globalspec.com/article/12677/teardown-microsoft-xbox-one-x

They are saying $441.

 

[sonomamashine]

Cerny mentioned "justified" price increase. So $399 is ruled out, the question is, would it be $449 or $499.
I can't imagine them asking a higher price.

Yep, that's what i'm thinking, spec wise 449$ gonna be reasonable and since they made a success at 399$ i don't see them moving far from 449$ to 499$ (that Playstation magic, we are the good guys come buy).
EDIT : for the players
probably thinking we need to drop that 449$ at E3 crowd gonna go crazy (mic drop)

 

[DeepEnigma]

Cerny mentioned "justified" price increase. So $399 is ruled out, the question is, would it be $449 or $499.
I can't imagine them asking a higher price.

I keep seeing this get misconstrued in many directions.

This is exactly what was said:

Cerny was asked to define the console’s price range, the veteran designer said, “I believe that we will be able to release it at an SRP [suggested retail price] that will be appealing to gamers in light of its advanced feature set.”

 

[Sosokrates]

Made a error there, i mostly post then change stuff for a while. so yea should not have posted it directly.



That's why i said 5700 and not XT. 7870 also wasn't the top model of that gen also.

Pretty sure a 7870 was around the 130-140 watt, the 5700 sits around 180 watt, with a die refresh and some optimisations they could get that probably also down towards 100w or lower clocks etc, like they did with the mobile 7870 which ended up in the PS5. focusing on a 230w 5700 xt seems kinda pointless, they get twice the heat out of that one. Unless they push some aggressive cooling or big box factor forwards and like to crank up performance.

Yes but if you go back to my original post on the subject I was quoting Somone saying 10tf @ 399.
I agree somthing in the 7-8tflop range would be possible @ 399.
The cost of a GPU is determined by CU count and clock speed, according to Albert pernello anyway.

 

[Sosokrates]

Yep, that's what i'm thinking, spec wise 449$ gonna be reasonable and since they made a success at 399$ i don't see them moving far from 449$ to 499$ (that Playstation magic, we are the good guys come buy).
EDIT : for the players
probably thinking we need to drop that 449$ at E3 crowd gonna go crazy (mic drop)

$449 would only get mic drop if its similar spec to scarlett but scarlett is $499, but It makes no sense that sony can out price Xbox, ps4 might be making around double the profits of xbox, but that does not enable them to make $1/2 billion loss, in the first year, especially considering the huge investment they will already have to make in making a new console, controller, OS, network services and exclusive games.

 

[rəddəM]

U$499,99 people, U$499,99.
And of course R$4.000,00.

 

[Insane Metal]

U$499,99 people, U$499,99.
And of course R$4.000,00.

Pois é rs.

 

[sonomamashine]

$449 would only get mic drop if its similar spec to scarlett but scarlett is $499, but It makes no sense that sony can out price Xbox, ps4 might be making around double the profits of xbox, but that does not enable them to make $1/2 billion loss, in the first year, especially considering the huge investment they will already have to make in making a new console, controller, OS, network services and exclusive games.

Scarlette being stronger than PS5 1% - 7% wont matter anyway Sony has a bigger fan base & better exclusives, what huge investment ?
Making a console doesn't require a huge investment AMD is doing that for them, assembling & the distribution yes (Sony don't manifacture parts exept a few) ... the OS are you kidding me ? this is nothing, Cerney himself said that he was surprised to see that making a new console only required 5 or so people (not a lab full of people) just testing geometry etc...
Don't forget that Sony make money from PS+, Games Digital &CD's, to display your game at the store, i'm sure i'm missing on other stuff they make money but that what i got on top of my head ftm, renting movies well you know.

 

[shenmue mugen]

U$499,99 people, U$499,99.
And of course R$4.000,00.

Puta que pariu....

 

[Sosokrates]

Scarlette being stronger than PS5 1% - 7% wont matter anyway Sony has a bigger fan base & better exclusives, what huge investment ?
Making a console doesn't require a huge investment AMD is doing that for them, assembling & the distribution yes (Sony don't manifacture parts exept a few) ... the OS are you kidding me ? this is nothing, Cerney himself said that he was surprised to see that making a new console only required 5 or so people (not a lab full of people) just testing geometry etc...
Don't forget that Sony make money from PS+, Games Digital &CD's, to display your game at the store, i'm sure i'm missing on other stuff they make money but that what i got on top of my head ftm, renting movies well you know.

Scarlett being more powerful won't matter anyway?
Matter regarding what?
I'm talking about the possibility and effect of a $50 price difference, it seems you are talking about somthing else.
Also the exclusive libary is going to be a lot more even next gen, Sony will probably continue having 1 or 2 more 90+ games but in terms of quantity of 80+ games they will be pretty even.
However which company is more profitable has little importance to me, I just want them both to do well and push each other to make better hardware and games.

 

[diffusionx]

I doubt either company will go past $399. That is a price that has consistently worked across the years. Once you go beyond it it really gets dicey. People are very sensitive to price on things like consoles. if anything MS will be even more eager to hit that price, similar to how they operated with the 360 launch, releasing the Core to go down to $299 as opposed to the $399 pro.

Also the exclusive libary is going to be a lot more even next gen, Sony will probably continue having 1 or 2 more 90+ games but in terms of quantity of 80+ games they will be pretty even.

it's just impossible to know this. The only thing we do know is that all of MS' exclusives, whatever they are, will be playable on PC day one, while Sony's, whatever they are, will not.

 

[Sosokrates]

I doubt either company will go past $399. That is a price that has consistently worked across the years. Once you go beyond it it really gets dicey. People are very sensitive to price on things like consoles. if anything MS will be even more eager to hit that price, similar to how they operated with the 360 launch, releasing the Core to go down to $299 as opposed to the $399 pro.



it's just impossible to know this. The only thing we do know is that all of MS' exclusives, whatever they are, will be playable on PC day one, while Sony's, whatever they are, will not.

And so what if they are?

 

[diffusionx]

And so what if they are?

They are not really exclusives. If Halo Infinite is the best game ever I don't need to buy an Xbox to play it.

 

[llien]

I keep seeing this get misconstrued in many directions.

This is exactly what was said:

Yes, that's it, and that's how I read "in light of its advanced feature set".

 

[bitbydeath]

I’m glad we finally made it to 10TF’s. Just a little further now guys!

 

[sonomamashine]

I’m glad we finally made it to 10TF’s. Just a little further now guys!

I asked you before about your specs, didnt get a response.

 

[bitbydeath]

I asked you before about your specs, didnt get a response.

Sorry, I’m sure I don’t always get the messages pop-up. 11-13TF would be about what I’m expecting out of the 5800.

 

[sonomamashine]

Sorry, I’m sure I don’t always get the messages pop-up. 11-13TF would be about what I’m expecting out of the 5800.

What are you thinking CU count/clocks, ram ...

 

[vpance]

I think $399 is pretty much out of the question with that fancy new controller and all. You just don't include nice to have stuff like that if that's your target price.

 

[ANIMAL1975]

U$499,99 people, U$499,99.
And of course R$4.000,00.

Pois é rs.

Puta que pariu....

Expressando aqui a minha solidariedade irmãos Brasileiros! 4.000 Reais!? Fod****se

 

[psorcerer]

Nobody told me this, there's no way these rops are being fully utilized...….You need bandwidth to push it

http://www.humus.name/Articles/Persson_LowlevelShaderOptimization.pdf

 

[ResilientBanana]

They are not really exclusives. If Halo Infinite is the best game ever I don't need to buy an Xbox to play it.

This argument is tired. If I can get it on Xbox/Windows and not PS5, then it's exclusive to Microsoft's ecosystem. If I subscribe to PS Now, I can stream on the PC, but that doesn't make Playstation exclusives any less exclusive. Not to mention, the average consumer has no idea they can buy Xbox games on PC. But even if they did, that doesn't make a game any better or worse and it doesn't devalue the console if that's your preferred choice for gaming.

 

[bitbydeath]

What are you thinking CU count/clocks, ram ...

The 5700 has 36CU’s and the 5700XT has 40CU’s so I expect 44 to be the base for the 5800 or possibly the 56. The clocks is where it could get interesting given everything that’s flown about. Again given the increase from 5700 to XT I wouldn’t be surprised at 2000mhz.

For RAM either 20 (16+4) or 24 (20+4). The 4 being the OS.

 

[diffusionx]

This argument is tired. If I can get it on Xbox/Windows and not PS5, then it's exclusive to Microsoft's ecosystem. If I subscribe to PS Now, I can stream on the PC, but that doesn't make Playstation exclusives any less exclusive. Not to mention, the average consumer has no idea they can buy Xbox games on PC. But even if they did, that doesn't make a game any better or worse and it doesn't devalue the console if that's your preferred choice for gaming.

It's not tired at all. If you expect exclusives to drive Xbox sales, the existence of those games on other platforms undercuts that. This is unquestionably true. Now it may not matter to MS anymore, in the way it would for Sony, but it's definitely true. As for PS Now, please. It's a worse way to play those games.

I highly doubt customers have no idea about this, considering MS advertises it heavily and, for example, discussed Infinite's existence on PC right alongside Xbox and will continue to do so. I actually think this is a very interesting wrinkle going into next gen that we never saw before.

 

[Sosokrates]

Lol 24Gb of Ram and 1$ per 1Gb aaaaaaaaaa, what tha hell is this, 24Gb is way much, i don't see that happening.
some fusion Drive (HDD + SSD combo)
between 16Gb - 20Gb of Ram
between 9Tf - 11Tf MAX (i'm being very generous right now)

Hopefully they will be able to pay $5 per GB. Enabling 24gb and 10tf for $499.

 

[Negotiator]

Pretty sure 580 RX was launched at 199 usd ( and that's with massive mark ups for consumers ), as its a cutdown version of it its probably even cheaper, 12gb of memory isn't special to say the least and 1tb hdd was probably about 25-50 bucks for them. that cpu is probably not costing them more then 10-15 bucks lets be honest here.

I see no reason why that box wasn't feasible at that time.

Then about the PS5

Cpu wise ryzens that are 8/16 are going next year in there 4th generation of those chips 1700/2700/3700/4700 so honestly i wouldn't be shocked if they just get the cheapest they can get away with from amd that's probably going to cost them 50 bucks at the end, as a 1700 already costs in consumer hands right now 130 which amd gets way cheaper obviously. Probably the same as PS4 bom.

Then about the GPU, the 7870 that got pushed into a mobile chip 7970 for PS4 launched at 350 bucks, the 5700 launched at 350 bucks and probably is going to be pushed into a mobile chip next year with some cuts or additions towards it to push it into the wattage of what they want or where they can get it.

There big costs will be SSD and memory. that can break there bank but also something they have complete control over.

50 bucks? No.

Zen2: Chiplet Quality Examined By Cost

Technology Vision

adoredtv.com

"Based on these estimates, Zen2 CPU Chiplets only cost $14.60/ea to make. The Ryzen IO die is only $12.85."

The I/O die will be part of the 7nm APU, so it's negligible.

AMD right now is selling 3600 (6/12) for $200, which is a rip-off if you think about it. Consoles will get a fully working 8/16 CPU, even if the clocks will be slower. Wider, but slower. That's the console philosophy and it's going to be dirt cheap (as always).

Hell, even during the GameCube era (CPU/GPU transistor budget) it was that way:

GameCube technical specifications - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

It's the Pareto principle all over again. CPU gets a miniscule transistor budget vs the GPU. 25/75 ratio.

That's because consoles are not CPU-centric platforms (unlike PCs).

So the 1x had a BOM of about $375?
Yes but the RX5700 xt is retailing at $499, even with the Mark up taken into account, its in a different price league to the 580, the 8 core zen2 will be more expensive then the jaguars.

Don't get fooled, RX 5700 is a mid-range GPU:

AMD’s RX 5700 XT was called RX 690 in its E3 presentation slides

Evidence of the disregarded graphics card branding comes straight from AMD's E3 press deck

www.pcgamesn.com

250mm2 die size, not much different from RX 480 and its many rehashes.

We're talking about nVidia-style price gouging here. PCMR folks eat it up, so AMD followed suit.

Regarding the CPU, 8-core Zen at 7nm will require the same amount of die space as 8-core Jaguar at 28nm. There's your Zen Lite/Jaguar successor right there.

 

[Sosokrates]

50 bucks? No.

Zen2: Chiplet Quality Examined By Cost

Technology Vision

adoredtv.com

"Based on these estimates, Zen2 CPU Chiplets only cost $14.60/ea to make. The Ryzen IO die is only $12.85."

The I/O die will be part of the 7nm APU, so it's negligible.

AMD right now is selling 3600 (6/12) for $200, which is a rip-off if you think about it. Consoles will get a fully working 8/16 CPU, even if the clocks will be slower. Wider, but slower. That's the console philosophy and it's going to be dirt cheap (as always).

Hell, even during the GameCube era (CPU/GPU transistor budget) it was that way:

GameCube technical specifications - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

It's the Pareto principle all over again. CPU gets a miniscule transistor budget vs the GPU. 25/75 ratio.

That's because consoles are not CPU-centric platforms (unlike PCs).


Don't get fooled, RX 5700 is a mid-range GPU:

AMD’s RX 5700 XT was called RX 690 in its E3 presentation slides

Evidence of the disregarded graphics card branding comes straight from AMD's E3 press deck

www.pcgamesn.com

250mm2 die size, not much different from RX 480 and its many rehashes.

We're talking about nVidia-style price gouging here. PCMR folks eat it up, so AMD followed suit.

Regarding the CPU, 8-core Zen at 7nm will require the same amount of die space as 8-core Jaguar at 28nm. There's your Zen Lite/Jaguar successor right there.

We are talking about 5700xt like performance. And that is a $499 GPU, I doubt the the BOM is the same as the rx480.

 

[Negotiator]

We are talking about 5700xt like performance. And that is a $499 GPU, I doubt the the BOM is the same as the rx480.

Ask yourself why they had to rebrand it from RX 690 to RX 5700 (XT).

Hint:

^ Price gouging during the 40nm era. It has always been a thing, 7nm isn't an excuse.

 

[Sosokrates]

Ask yourself why they had to rebrand it from RX 690 to RX 5700 (XT).

Hint:

^ Price gouging during the 40nm era. It has always been a thing, 7nm isn't an excuse.

So your saying the 5700xt has like a $150 BOM?

 

[Negotiator]

So your saying the 5700xt has like a $150 BOM?

I'm not convinced RX 5700 (XT) is worth 400-500 bucks.

nVidia is even more egregious with their pricing and they use mature 12nm lithography.

There are high markups in both GPU manufacturers.

 

[Sosokrates]

I wonder if MS will sell a version of scarlett with just the console and power cable + minimal packaging for slightly cheaper for people who want to save a bit of money and use there X1 controller.

 

[Sosokrates]

I'm not convinced RX 5700 (XT) is worth 400-500 bucks.

nVidia is even more egregious with their pricing and they use mature 12nm lithography.

There are high markups in both GPU manufacturers.

It's $499 rrp

It probably has a BOM of about $350

Theres no way both amd and nvidia would have such huge margins of like $200 - 350, one of them would settle for a $100 margin and severely undercut the competition.

Anyway, a 5700xt gpu is going to sony/ms more then a downclocked 7870 did in 2013.

 

[Negotiator]

It's $499 rrp

It probably has a BOM of about $350

Theres no way both amd and nvidia would have such huge margins of like $200 - 350, one of them would settle for a $100 margin and severely undercut the competition.

Anyway, a 5700xt gpu is going to sony/ms more then a downclocked 7870 did in 2013.

Dude, it's a duopoly these days. As I said, AMD followed suit.

Maybe Intel will help GPU prices to drop... as ironic as that sounds.

Btw, I gave you the BoM cost of the Zen 2 CPU. There are high markups there too and yet, people are happy to pay $200 for a 6/12 CPU. It costs nowhere near that much.

Feel free to do the calculations yourself if you want: https://caly-technologies.com/die-yield-calculator/

 

[SmokSmog]

Theres no way both amd and nvidia would have such huge margins

Gross Margin % is calculated as gross profit divided by its revenue. NVIDIA's Gross Profit for the three months ended in Jul. 2019 was $1,541 Mil. NVIDIA's Revenue for the three months ended in Jul. 2019 was $2,579 Mil. Therefore, NVIDIA's Gross Margin % for the quarter that ended in Jul. 2019 was 59.75%.

 

[Sosokrates]

Dude, it's a duopoly these days. As I said, AMD followed suit.

Maybe Intel will help GPU prices to drop... as ironic as that sounds.

Btw, I gave you the BoM cost of the Zen 2 CPU. There are high markups there too and yet, people are happy to pay $200 for a 6/12 CPU. It costs nowhere near that much.

Feel free to do the calculations yourself if you want: https://caly-technologies.com/die-yield-calculator/

I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm saying that even a healthy margin taken into account a 5700xt level gpu will cost ms/Sony more then a downclocked 7870. Its not like AMD didn't have big margins in 2013.

5700xt performance in console is going to cost $499, no way they do it for $399.

 

[llien]

We are talking about 5700xt like performance. And that is a $499 GPU, I doubt the the BOM is the same as the rx480.

That is 399 GPU. You have missed the jebaiting story it seems.

AMD pulled off a 'double jebait' to trick NVIDIA into reducing prices of the RTX Super GPUs

AMD's VP of Radeon Scott Herkelman recently revealed in an interview that the company keenly observed NVIDIA's launch of the RTX 20 Super series and revised the pricing of the new RX 5700 series GPUs to undercut NVIDIA's RTX 2060 and 2070 Super GPUs. The initial pricing of the RX 5700 series was...

www.notebookcheck.net

 

[SmokSmog]

There will be no 399$ consoles.
Most likely 500$ with 500$ BOM
Less likely 500$ with 550-600$ BOM

No god please no another 399$ cheap underpowered plastic loud boxes.

 

[ResilientBanana]

It's not tired at all. If you expect exclusives to drive Xbox sales, the existence of those games on other platforms undercuts that. This is unquestionably true. Now it may not matter to MS anymore, in the way it would for Sony, but it's definitely true. As for PS Now, please. It's a worse way to play those games.

I highly doubt customers have no idea about this, considering MS advertises it heavily and, for example, discussed Infinite's existence on PC right alongside Xbox and will continue to do so. I actually think this is a very interesting wrinkle going into next gen that we never saw before.

Well, this is not the thread for this conversation. So we should really end it here.

 

[Negotiator]

I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm saying that even a healthy margin taken into account a 5700xt level gpu will cost ms/Sony more then a downclocked 7870. Its not like AMD didn't have big margins in 2013.

5700xt performance in console is going to cost $499, no way they do it for $399.

There's a reason console manufacturers buy AMD chips at very thin margins:

Xbox One deal worth more than $3 billion to AMD, claims former VP

AMD secured a deal to provide Microsoft with the silicon to power its new Xbox One console, and a former AMD VP claims that the deal is worth in excess of $3 billion.

www.zdnet.com

Someone had calculated that a 400mm2 die at 7nm costs around $140 straight from TSMC fabs.

 

[Negotiator]

There will be no 399$ consoles.
Most likely 500$ with 500$ BOM
Less likely 500$ with 550-600$ BOM

$500 MSRP with $600 BOM. $100 loss isn't a big deal, since their services are highly profitable.

That's $200 higher than PS4/XB1 BOM. You can do wonderful things in the console space with 200 bucks more...

 

[SmokSmog]

$500 MSRP with $600 BOM. $100 loss isn't a big deal, since their services are highly profitable.

That's $200 higher than PS4/XB1 BOM. You can do wonderful things in the console space with 200 bucks more...

I know,
50$ for ssd
50$ for big ass cooling
and additional 100$ for big fat apu

 

[sonomamashine]

There will be no 399$ consoles.
Most likely 500$ with 500$ BOM
Less likely 500$ with 550-600$ BOM

No god please no another 399$ cheap underpowered plastic loud boxes.

I think they could be at 399$
CPU Ryzen 3700 + GPU 5700 xt perf APU - 150$
HDD - 30$
SSD - 70$
Ram - 60$
Controller - 15$
= 325$
74$ for other parts (that cost nearly nothing) + assembly + shippement per unit.
399$ is possible (don't shoot me)
i don't believe for one second that ryzen7 3700x sells for 329$ and cost them 274$.

 

[Negotiator]

I know,
50$ for ssd
50$ for big ass cooling
and 100$ for big fat apu

More like $140-150 for a big fat APU.

If Sony and MS cooperate in terms of hardware R&D and they come up with a common, equal APU (IMHO it will be a necessity for Azure server blades running/streaming PS5/XB2 games), then we're talking about unprecedented economies of scale.

As controversial as that sounds, I don't think we're gonna see traditional (hardware) system wars anymore. It will be all about (exclusive) games and services. The Azure partnership was unexpected, so it's not that far-fetched to expect the unexpected anymore. Maybe the Lockhart APU was ditched because of that, we'll see in due time.

And yes, I know some people are too fixated on Twitter leaks, but who knows who's "feeding" them and why. For all I know, it could be an elaborate red herring to distract us from seeing the big picture.

 

[Sosokrates]

There's a reason console manufacturers buy AMD chips at very thin margins:

Xbox One deal worth more than $3 billion to AMD, claims former VP

AMD secured a deal to provide Microsoft with the silicon to power its new Xbox One console, and a former AMD VP claims that the deal is worth in excess of $3 billion.

www.zdnet.com

Someone had calculated that a 400mm2 die at 7nm costs around $140 straight from TSMC fabs.

Oh my mistake thought 5700xt was $499.
With it being $399, a 10tf, 16gb, 1tb ssd @ $399 is possible.

 

[Little Chicken]

The DF posts ITT are such bullshit lol.

I've seen no conclusive evidence to suggest that DF are at all biased towards any company or platform.

All I'm seeing is cherry picked and heavily editorialized quotes by hyper-emotional fanboys.

Everything on DF up to 2013 must've been ROUGH on you. The PTSD is real.

 

[SmokSmog]

More like $140-150 for a big fat APU.

Sorry, I mean 140$~ from ps4 + additional 100$ = 200-250$ BOM for very fast apu.

 

[Negotiator]

Oh my mistake thought 5700xt was $499.
With it being $399, a 10tf, 16gb, 1tb ssd @ $399 is possible.

You're going to be disappointed if you expect $399 consoles this time around...

The consensus right now in the console market is that most day 1 buyers (mind you: we're talking about enthusiasts, not Fortnite kids) are willing to spend $499. Sony/MS know that and they will act accordingly.

Well, unless someone decides that a $200 loss is acceptable, but it's highly unlikely. $100 loss is a conservative estimation/safe bet. We've seen $300 loss in the past (PS3) and we didn't even have services back then.

Sorry, I mean 140$~ from ps4 + additional 100$ = 200-250$ BOM for very fast apu.

OG PS4 APU was $100, OG XB1 APU was $110 (slighly bigger die due to eSRAM).

https://news.ihsmarkit.com/sites/ihs.newshq.businesswire.com/files/press_release/file/IHS_Table_1_Preliminary_Xbox_One_Cost_Est_By_Subsystem_USD.PNG

$200-250 just for the APU chip is too much, unless you're also counting the GDDR6 BOM.

 

[FrostyJ93]

They're gonna be $499 peeps. Xbox One launched at $499 and PS4 was originally gonna be $499 until the last minute.

It's not cheap but it will be worth it.