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[gerg]

If England really pushes for a hard Brexit it would put London's position as (financial) gateway to the EU under pressure.

Might be an opportunity to push Edinburgh as the alternative. I was pretty impressed by the infrastructure and services they already have in place last time I visited. They would probably have to expand the airport though.

This is all in the case of a hard Brexit and a Scottish independence win.

300,000 people work in the City of London alone. The population in the "local authority area" for Edinburgh is just under 500,000. That would be some investment in infrastructure if such a move were to happen!

(Plus, as much as I enjoyed studying in Edinburgh, it's a bubble compared to London.)

 

[Audioboxer]

Full speech

Before the end of this month - and very possibly as early as tomorrow - the Prime Minister will trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, setting the UK on course to leave the EU in March 2019.

It is important, therefore, for me to report now on the Scottish Government's attempts to find compromise with the UK government and set out our plan to protect Scotland's interests.

Right now, Scotland stands at a hugely important crossroads.

We didn't choose to be in this position.

In common with most people across the country, I wish that we weren't.

But we are, and the stakes are high - so we must have a plan for the way forward.

For better or worse - depending on your point of view - the future of the UK looks very different today than it did two years ago.

As a result of the Brexit vote we face a future, not just outside the EU, but also outside the world's biggest single market.

In addition, the collapse of the Labour Party means that we face a prolonged period of uninterrupted and unchecked Conservative government at Westminster.

Bolded is enough to make some jump off a bridge, let alone vote for independence lol.

Also for those whining about leave is leave

We accepted that Scotland would leave the EU - despite the 62% vote to remain - but argued that the UK should either stay in the single market or seek an outcome that would allow Scotland to do so.

And we set out how greater powers for the Scottish Parliament could help protect Scotland's interests in a post Brexit landscape.

Over the past few months, we have worked hard - really hard - to try to find agreement. The Prime Minister and her government have been given every opportunity for compromise.

But today as we stand, for all we know, on the eve of Article 50 being triggered, not only is there no UK wide agreement on the way ahead - but the UK government has not moved even an inch in pursuit of compromise and agreement.

Our efforts at compromise have instead been met with a brick wall of intransigence.

UK membership of the single market was ruled out with no prior consultation with the Scottish Government or with the other devolved administrations - leaving us facing not just Brexit, but a hard Brexit.

Rest @ https://www.snp.org/nicola_sturgeon_speech_scotland_s_referendum

 

[cabot]

There is still big questions that the SNP can't brush aside this time. Currency needs a final answer, Euro. Scottish deficit is too high I think. Oil revenue can't be depended on. Trading with rest of UK which is more important than the EU, both would be perfect but who knows how Brexit works out and if it does somehow come good with a deal, that probably stops Independence.

I'll be watching the attitude of the UK government eagerly now, they're all about them free trade deals with everyone post Brexit, if they suddenly change rhetoric for Scotland, then we're in real trouble for EU negotiations.

 

[SlickShoes]

People who think that things will get bad if Scotland leaves the UK fail to understand that things are already terrible being part of a UK that leaves the EU.

Prepare for hardship either way, personally I'm for going it alone, paying extra taxes and enduring whatever we have to for the future of the country.

 

[jelly]

I'll be watching the attitude of the UK government eagerly now, they're all about them free trade deals with everyone post Brexit, if they suddenly change rhetoric for Scotland, then we're in real trouble for EU negotiations.

Yeah, never thought about that. That's an interesting point to UK trade being most important to Scotland.

 

[Veidt]

Hope it works for Sturgeon.

 

[Uzzy]

Scotland sold £49.8b to the rUK in 2015. In the same year, they sold £12.3b to the EU. Putting up barriers to trade with the rUK in favour of free trade with the EU isn't going to work out well economically.

Still, this was inevitable.

 

[RaginRoss]

Let's not bottle it this time.

 

[Jackpot]

oof. Poor move on her part. Support for independence hasn't made much movement, crashing oil prices makes the economic case even worse, still no answers on previous questions like currency.

 

[efyu_lemonardo]

oof. Poor move on her part. Support for independence hasn't made much movement, crashing oil prices makes the economic case even worse, still no answers on previous questions like currency.

What exactly are the options in terms of currency?

 

[kmag]

Scotland sold £49.8b to the rUK in 2015. In the same year, they sold £12.3b to the EU. Putting up barriers to trade with the rUK in favour of free trade with the EU isn't going to work out well economically.

Still, this was inevitable.

Haven't you heard, the UK is going to trade freely with everyone.

Lets take back control.

 

[Uzzy]

What exactly are the options in terms of currency?

Adopt the Euro, use the British Pound or create a Scottish Pound.

Haven't you heard, the UK is going to trade freely with everyone.

Lets take back control.

I'm going to laugh if they use 'Let's take back control' as the slogan for the campaign.

 

[gerg]

What exactly are the options in terms of currency?

Individual currency tied to the pound (or use the GBP itself), individual currency on its own, or (as might be mandatory in the case of EU membership) joining the Euro.

Pretty terrible choices all around, unless the EU loosens its fiscal policy.

 

[KingSnake]

As I said, the vote will be in the end "Do you want to be lead by May or Sturgeon through the upcoming storm?". Because there will be quite a severe economic impact for upcoming years anyway.

One additional player in this will be EU, who could promise to offer a helping hand if the negotiation with UK goes into the hard Brexit direction by then anyhow.

 

[Yamauchi]

Can't blame her as her ratings have been sliding recently, but she doesn't have the votes.

 

[Stevey]

I'd be very surprised if this goes the way she wants.

 

[MrMysterio]

Quite liked her approach of "change will happen, no matter what you'll vote for", which is a much better point to start a campaign from then "vote for significant changes or the status quo".

 

[D4Danger]

Adopt the Euro, use the British Pound or create a Scottish Pound.

They won't use the British pound. That was explained last time.

 

[HandsomeCharles]

What exactly are the options in terms of currency?

You can't use "exactly" at this point because these things are not clear, but it's likely:

Keep the pound - currency union with uk.
Take the Euro - Become member of the EU
Create new currency - if neither of the the above are possible

 

[efyu_lemonardo]

Adopt the Euro, use the British Pound or create a Scottish Pound.

The third option is a realistic one? In what scenario would it be acceptable to the UK or the EU?

 

[Joni]

What exactly are the options in terms of currency?

Adopt the Euro, use the British Pound or create a Scottish Pound.

Use the Euro is a possibility as well. They wouldn't be able to become official Euro members for years.

Individual currency tied to the pound (or use the GBP itself), individual currency on its own, or (as might be mandatory in the case of EU membership) joining the Euro.

Pretty terrible choices all around, unless the EU loosens its fiscal policy.

Joining the Euro is a multi-year process that even the complete UK would fail at the moment.

The third option is a realistic one? In what scenario would it be acceptable to the UK or the EU?

An independent Scotland would be an independent Scotland. The UK wouldn't be able to stop it. The EU wouldn't care, you can't immediately jump into the Euro.

 

[Audioboxer]

They won't use the British pound. That was explained last time.

Incorrect, the pound could be used last time (Salmond finally got it admitted openly in a debate as well). That was a smoke screen of fear. This time around, I'm not sure, but I'll await clarification.

 

[JonathanEx]

oof. Poor move on her part. Support for independence hasn't made much movement, crashing oil prices makes the economic case even worse, still no answers on previous questions like currency.

Is this more about trying to pressure No 10 on Brexit strategy though? Not that it'll hugely work, haha May listening to anyone else

And all the other issues will be pushed through the lens of Brexit, and besides, we've seen you don't need serious economic arguments to win independence referendums.

 

[SlickShoes]

Scotland sold £49.8b to the rUK in 2015. In the same year, they sold £12.3b to the EU. Putting up barriers to trade with the rUK in favour of free trade with the EU isn't going to work out well economically.

Still, this was inevitable.

Trade with the UK won't grind to halt though, and the UK is making a big deal about free trading once it leaves the EU, but it will refuse this right to it's friendly neighbor? That doesn't look good to the rest of the world.

 

[SomethingInTheSea]

But if they don't have a clear route into the EU, surely if they have another and they vote for independence this time then they are just doing what the rest of the UK did by voting to leave the EU? - Committing economic suicide.

Didn't the EU say last time that it would take years and they don't meet the requirements yet on their own?



Seriously - fuck this whole country. I'd leave if I could (yeah, I know - that's what Scotland is trying to do).

I've got Irish citizenship through my dad. Seriously considering trying to persuade my other half to move over there.

Plus the SNP recently went on a trip to Spain to try and drum up support for an easy rejoin process and were pretty much completely ignored even when they disavowed Catalonia, who they've been historically supportive of.
http://www.politico.eu/article/no-love-for-scotland-in-spain-2/

A key point that surprised me and showed how hard it will be for Scotland to make progress was that Spain don't even recognise Kosovo as a separate country, one of the only EU countries not to do so, out of fear of encouraging breakaway regions.

 

[Busty]

The very idea of another referendum gives me the dry-heave.

 

[gerg]

Joining the Euro is a multi-year process that even the complete UK would fail at the moment.

So this would suggest that it would take a long while for Scotland to re-join the EU?

 

[IdreamofHIME]

She had no choice, literally nothing to lose.
If Brexit tanks the UK, then she'll get the numbers needed to get over the line.
If Brexit is a success, she won't win and there won't be another referendum for a decade+, but if she didn't call for a referendum now...there still wouldn't be referendum for a generation anyways.
So best to have a bash now while the opportunity is there.

 

[Billy_Pilgrim]

Back to fantasy land politics again. If Scotland leave they will not be allowed to join the EU so what is the point? What currency are they going to have? In this thread alone you've got people claiming the impossible was going to happen last time, none of the questions have been answered at all. This is just negligence.

Absolute fucking nonsense.

 

[Audioboxer]

Plus the SNP recently went on a trip to Spain to try and drum up support for an easy rejoin process and were pretty much completely ignored even when they disavowed Catalonia, who they've been historically supportive of.
http://www.politico.eu/article/no-love-for-scotland-in-spain-2/

A key point that surprised me and showed how hard it will be for Scotland to make progress was that Spain don't even recognise Kosovo as a separate country, one of the only EU countries not to do so, out of fear of encouraging breakaway regions.

As always, all that matters about Spain is dismissing the daft sabre rattling that Spain will be vetoing left, right and center

Maura went on: "The difference between Spain and the UK is the constitutional system. In the UK, there is no constitution to say Scotland cannot leave the United Kingdom or have self-determination. This is not the case in Spain, there is not this possibility.

"If Scotland is independent from the United Kingdom, Scotland can negotiate with the European Union to become part of it. If that's the case, Spain has not anything to do but negotiate in terms of our interests."

Maura added: "If the UK leaves the EU, Scotland in one moment can be part of the EU if Scotland has independence from the UK. It will be a sovereign state."

A spokesperson for the vice chair of the Spanish parliament's EU committee, Jose Cano, told BuzzFeed News that, while the Scottish government is unable to negotiate with any EU member state while it's part of the UK, he was sceptical of claims that Spain would block an independent Scotland's future entry.

"I have never read such comments from any Spanish political leader," said the spokesperson. "If Scotland gets its independence, in a legal referendum in the United Kingdom, if that is legitimate then Scotland will claim independence and be accepted by the international community.

"If that happens, then the discussion will be whether Scotland should or shouldn't join the EU. In that case, Spain would have nothing to complain about at all."

https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/...scotland-joini?utm_term=.srLMbN69x#.ldl94pVnj

It's such a flimsy ground to rest all your bettertogether fear hope on, as it's pointed out time and time again Scotland gaining legal independence is nothing like Catalonia.

 

[Joni]

Spain can be forced in line. They might not recognize Kosovo, but Kosovo is still on the track towards the EU and getting monetary support.

So this would suggest that it would take a long while for Scotland to re-join the EU?

The Euro and the EU are not the same thing. You don't need to immediately meet the criteria for the Euro to join the EU. Joining the EU is a multi-year process as well, but Scotland theoretically already meets all the criteria.

 

[D4Danger]

Incorrect, the pound could be used last time (Salmond finally got it admitted openly in a debate as well). That was a smoke screen of fear. This time around, I'm not sure, but I'll await clarification.

What part of independence lets you use another country's currency? Nobody from the SNP ever explained how this would work even when the BoE made it clear it wouldn't.

This is just one question from the first indyref that still hasn't been sorted.

 

[Bits N Pieces]

The very idea of another referendum gives me the dry-heave.

That's the way I'm leaning as well. Two and a bit years of this..... boak!

 

[gerg]

She had no choice, literally nothing to lose.
If Brexit tanks the UK, then she'll get the numbers needed to get over the line.
If Brexit is a success, she won't win and there won't be another referendum for a decade+, but if she didn't call for a referendum now...there still wouldn't be referendum for a generation anyways.
So best to have a bash now while the opportunity is there.

I think there is a much stronger risk that this damages the SNP's reputation as being a "one-policy" party that focuses on independence to the detriment of its own domestic policies. Additionally, would Sturgeon leave (like Salmond) in the case of another "no" vote?

The Euro and the EU are not the same thing. You don't need to immediately meet the criteria for the Euro to join the EU. Joining the EU is a multi-year process as well, but Scotland theoretically already meets all the criteria.

I thought it was an ambition (whether feasible or not) to have every EU country joining the Eurozone, except for those (like the UK) that gained exemptions at the creation of the Eurozone.

 

[Acorn]

oof. Poor move on her part. Support for independence hasn't made much movement, crashing oil prices makes the economic case even worse, still no answers on previous questions like currency.

What was the other option? Ignore the manifesto commitment and the fact she wanted atleast to be in the single market?

When the first ref was called before they were some 30ish points behind. Now they are 5-10 points behind. Who knows but to do nothing would anger the base plus make her look weak as hell. There is no guarantee they would even have a Indy majority in parliament in 5-10 years.

 

[KingSnake]

If Scotland leave they will not be allowed to join the EU so what is the point?

This not clear one way or another. There is no EU rule to either stop them for joining or allow them to remain while UK leaves. So it's totally up to the decision of EU.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

The third option is a realistic one? In what scenario would it be acceptable to the UK or the EU?

Independent Scotland would almost certainly not join the EU. Scotland trades three times as much with the rest of the UK as it does the entire rest of the EU put together. Being a member of the EU means Scotland couldn't have a bilateral trade deal with the UK other than the one every other EU member gets. This won't be very good because the UK is currently aiming for the hardest rawest Brexit in town. That means joining the EU would tank the Scottish economy incredibly badly - worse than leaving the EU will tank the UK economy.

If Scotland does become independent and people have to face up to the reality of what that entails, this will become obvious quite quickly. An independent Scotland would deal more closely with the EU than the rest of the UK, but ultimately would not join - they'd be something more akin to Switzerland's relationship, only a bit less. Accordingly, they wouldn't adopt the Euro. In the short run, they would probably continue using the GBP, until they could float an independent currency - you don't want to be stuck using the GBP when the rest of the UK's central bank has no reason to consider you when making currency decisions. So in the long run you'd almost certainly have a Scottish pound.

 

[Funky Papa]

Back to fantasy land politics again. If Scotland leave they will not be allowed to join the EU so what is the point? What currency are they going to have? In this thread alone you've got people claiming the impossible was going to happen last time, none of the questions have been answered at all. This is just negligence.

Absolute fucking nonsense.

They most certainly will/could. Just not automatically.

One of the reasons why I think this is a bad call is that we don't even know what kind of Brexit the UK is going to get, so there's no way Scotland can plan for any kind of transition just yet.

 

[moggio]

Yas. Get fucked England.

 

[Audioboxer]

What part of independence lets you use another country's currency? Nobody from the SNP ever explained how this would work even when the BoE made it clear it wouldn't.

This is just one question from the first indyref that still hasn't been sorted.

That was then, this is now, but yeah, even big Alastair had to admit we could in 2014 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nnk2MIBiw-Q

 

[kmag]

What part of independence lets you use another country's currency? Nobody from the SNP ever explained how this would work even when the BoE made it clear it wouldn't.

This is just one question from the first indyref that still hasn't been sorted.

Sterling is a freely tradable floating currency, any country in the world could use it if they wanted to. The term is called Dollarization, it's not ideal but hardly terminal.

Some of the main downsides of Dollarization are already in effect for Scotland (and anywhere in England not within the M25)

 

[IdreamofHIME]

I think there is a much stronger risk that this damages the SNP's reputation as being a "one-policy" party that focuses on independence to the detriment of its own domestic policies.

Except the SNP is a successful and popular government and the only party to ever have a majority at Holyrood.

 

[Acorn]

What part of independence lets you use another country's currency? Nobody from the SNP ever explained how this would work even when the BoE made it clear it wouldn't.

This is just one question from the first indyref that still hasn't been sorted.

The process hasn't even begun. I'd hope their white paper would be clearer on this and the pound isn't even as attractive as it was first time around.

 

[KingSnake]

Spain can be forced in line.

It's not like Spain doesn't have its own issues in a world where a 2 speed Europe is more and more on the table.

 

[DavidDesu]

Yes! (And that is how I will be voting, again).

Last time we started out in the low 30% range. Now it's 50/50. My mum and eldest brother were strong No voters last time, no big fans of the SNP but now have completely turned around. Even I was surprised by this change and I'd not even tried convincing them. Anecdotally hearing a lot of that on Twitter from other Yessers who's parents and relatives couldn't be swayed last time now enthusiastically saying they will Vote Yes.

I hope so.

There was something like 140,000 votes in it last time. The swing could be real and it would make it so.

Remember, pretty much all of the bullet points from the No campaign last time were shown up, some immediately after the last vote, and many have fallen by the wayside since. The platform for a No vote this time risks being instantly attackable if it is full of the same hypocrisy which was shown up after the last vote.

 

[DarthMasta]

Wonder what Trump's response is going to be? Maybe some BS about people wanting their own identity and that maybe other regions will follow through?

Still, the statistics of trade make it look like a financially troublesome decision. Not to mention that after that's done, Scotland joins a fairly economically conservative EU...

Still, if Scotland truly believes it's going to be a rock and a hard place, a regular member of the EU has more independence than Scotland does, and more of a say on how to fix it's problems...

 

[Funky Papa]

Spain can be forced in line.

Wrong.

Spain can be bought. And Rajoy would need some significant reassurances.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I don't understand why people think an independent Scotland would join the EU. It would not be even remotely in an independent Scotland's interests to do so.

 

[gerg]

Except the SNP is a successful and popular government and the only party to ever have a majority at Holyrood.

I am not denying their popularity now, although they have had certain failings in domestic policy, but that this might alienate a not-insignificant portion of their anti-independence voter base and hedge up an idea that they care about independence to the detriment of everything else.

That was then, this is now, but yeah, even big Alastair had to admit we could in 2014 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nnk2MIBiw-Q

No one is denying that Scotland could use the GBP, but that it is a really stupid idea to so. Claiming that Scotland could use the GBP is like highlighting your own capacity to shoot yourself in the foot!

 

[Audioboxer]

Yes! (And that is how I will be voting, again).

Last time we started out in the low 30% range. Now it's 50/50. My mum and eldest brother were strong No voters last time, no big fans of the SNP but now have completely turned around. Even I was surprised by this change and I'd not even tried convincing them. Anecdotally hearing a lot of that on Twitter from other Yessers who's parents and relatives couldn't be swayed last time now enthusiastically saying they will Vote Yes.

I hope so.

There was something like 140,000 votes in it last time. The swing could be real and it would make it so.

Remember, pretty much all of the bullet points from the No campaign last time were shown up, some immediately after the last vote, and many have fallen by the wayside since. The platform for a No vote this time risks being instantly attackable if it is full of the same hypocrisy which was shown up after the last vote.

This time it'll probably boil down to you're fucked without us, to which the reply is we're fucked with you, anyway. The tough position for the No campaign this time around is they aren't campaigning for the status quo, as the status quo doesn't exist anymore.

It's not going to be an easy fight, hence why so many are skittish even before campaigning can start. The vitriol is going to be 10x worse this time around as fear leads into hate.

I am not denying their popularity now, although they have had certain failings in domestic policy, but that this might alienate a not-insignificant portion of their anti-independence voter base and hedge up an idea that they care about independence to the detriment of everything else.



No one is denying that Scotland could use the GBP, but that it is a really stupid idea to so.

The poster I replied to above outright stated "what part of independence lets you use another countries currency".