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[ferrasvansen]

Yes! (And that is how I will be voting, again).

Last time we started out in the low 30% range. Now it's 50/50. My mum and eldest brother were strong No voters last time, no big fans of the SNP but now have completely turned around. Even I was surprised by this change and I'd not even tried convincing them. Anecdotally hearing a lot of that on Twitter from other Yessers who's parents and relatives couldn't be swayed last time now enthusiastically saying they will Vote Yes.

I hope so.

There was something like 140,000 votes in it last time. The swing could be real and it would make it so.

Remember, pretty much all of the bullet points from the No campaign last time were shown up, some immediately after the last vote, and many have fallen by the wayside since. The platform for a No vote this time risks being instantly attackable if it is full of the same hypocrisy which was shown up after the last vote.

Yeah my whole family have changed opinions, I was very much a no voter for all my life. Given now that we face a lifetime of Conservative right wingers hanging over Scotland, I have had enough. I will vote yes, something I never ever thought I would do.

 

[cabot]

Except the SNP is a successful and popular government and the only party to ever have a majority at Holyrood.

Ehhhhh, I'd describe them as mostly competent. Mostly. Let's not forget they lost that majority last year, they are far from bulletproof.


The situation isn't so much different politically up here from England, the other parties are pretty rubbish, aside from the Greens. The SNP have a strong leader and haven't made any catastrophic failures during their time in government, that's why they have their position as party with the most MPs (in Scotland, at least. They benefit from FPTP in the UK elections)


One advantage of independence would be the other non-SNP parties rebooting and untethering from the UK parties, something that's needed really.

 

[KingSnake]

Wonder what Trump's response is going to be?

All Scotland needs is to promise some tax deductions for his golf things there. And to demolish those wind mills.

 

[kmag]

Independent Scotland would almost certainly not join the EU. Scotland trades three times as much with the rest of the UK as it does the entire rest of the EU put together. Being a member of the EU means Scotland couldn't have a bilateral trade deal with the UK other than the one every other EU member gets. This won't be very good because the UK is currently aiming for the hardest rawest Brexit in town. That means joining the EU would tank the Scottish economy incredibly badly - worse than leaving the EU will tank the UK economy.

If Scotland does become independent and people have to face up to the reality of what that entails, this will become obvious quite quickly. An independent Scotland would deal more closely with the EU than the rest of the UK, but ultimately would not join - they'd be something more akin to Switzerland's relationship, only a bit less. Accordingly, they wouldn't adopt the Euro. In the short run, they would probably continue using the GBP, until they could float an independent currency - you don't want to be stuck using the GBP when the rest of the UK's central bank has no reason to consider you when making currency decisions. So in the long run you'd almost certainly have a Scottish pound.

Please Crab, lets not pretend the BoE has ever truly gave a ratsarse about Scotland, they may have considered impacts but comparative size if nothing else means that countervailing considerations (cough City of London) would naturally take precedence.

 

[WhateverItTakes]

Can't really blame them for wanting another go. The Tories 'leadership' of the UK has been abysmal and I can't see​ any hope as an Englishman, maybe they'll find something better outside the union. It's gonna be tough for everyone on these Isles though, so I hope noone's under the illusion any result of this vote is gonna lead to an easier economic time. Brexit will fuck us all.

 

[Acorn]

They most certainly will/could. Just not automatically.

One of the reasons why I think this is a bad call is that we don't even know what kind of Brexit the UK is going to get, so there's no way Scotland can plan for any kind of transition just yet.

We're withdrawing from the eu economic area and ehrc. It's pretty clear basis regardless of prosecco and German cars to work from..

 

[Rixa]

I thought it was an ambition (whether feasible or not) to have every EU country joining the Eurozone, except for those (like the UK) that gained exemptions at the creation of the Eurozone.

Sweden has its Crown.
Denmark has its Crown.

Both are members in European Union.

 

[SomethingInTheSea]

As always, all that matters about Spain is dismissing the daft sabre rattling that Spain will be vetoing left, right and center



https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/...scotland-joini?utm_term=.srLMbN69x#.ldl94pVnj

It's such a flimsy ground to rest all your bettertogether fear hope on, as it's pointed out time and time again Scotland gaining legal independence is nothing like Catalonia.

I ultimately don't think they'd block it, but there's no way that its going to be a seamless transition like some people are going to claim, for a start all the other accession countries that are on hold (and their EU sponsors) would have something to say about Scotland suddenly jumping to the front of the line when the whole process is supposed to be on hold right now.
That's before we even get to things like joining the Euro and other membership requirements that Scotland as part of the UK currently has an opt out on.

 

[gerg]

The poster I replied to above outright stated "what part of independence lets you use another countries currency".

I think you're reading that statement too literally. Sure, with independence you have the right to use any currency you want, but why become independent to secede all fiscal control to a country that has no obligation to recognise your needs and desires?

Sweden has its Crown.
Denmark has its Crown.

Both are members in European Union.

Both countries were members of the EU ahead of the creation of the Euro, as I wrote.

 

[oti]

Back to fantasy land politics again. If Scotland leave they will not be allowed to join the EU so what is the point? What currency are they going to have? In this thread alone you've got people claiming the impossible was going to happen last time, none of the questions have been answered at all. This is just negligence.

Absolute fucking nonsense.

Because the picture of a post Brexit UK May is painting isn't fantasy land politics.

 

[Busty]

That's the way I'm leaning as well. Two and a bit years of this..... boak!

*nods*

Spain can be forced in line.

By who exactly?

 

[Palette Swap]

Back to fantasy land politics again. If Scotland leave they will not be allowed to join the EU so what is the point? What currency are they going to have?

Absolute fucking nonsense.

Having a referendum is the sensible option. The Brexit vote has created a conundrum that can only be solved through another vote, for the very same reasons and the same caveats as Brexit.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Please Crab, lets not pretend the BoE has ever truly gave a ratsarse about Scotland, they may have considered impacts but comparative size if nothing else means that countervailing considerations (cough City of London) would naturally take precedence.

Scotland is closer to the UK average than any other region, so the BoE has actually served Scotland surprisingly well, if only by accident. England has London simultaneously overheating with every other region undercharged!

 

[Rixa]

Both countries were members of the EU ahead of the creation of the Euro, as I wrote.

Yeah, youre right.

 

[Billy_Pilgrim]

They most certainly will. Just not automatically.

One of the reasons why I think this is a bad call is that we don't even know what kind of Brexit the UK is going to get, so there's no way Scotland can plan for any kind of transition just yet.

I'm sorry but you need brexiter levels of fantasist before you even get close to this being a possibility. Precisely zero has changed from the last time around with regards to whether Scotland is allowed to join the EU (it won't be for years, if ever) except now the consequences are writ already. Hard border, no free trade, no currency union. Absolute madness, as bad as the brexit lot, yet for some reason nationalism is a good excuse when it isn't the mental tories who are flag waving and tub thumping.

 

[Joni]

I thought it was an ambition (whether feasible or not) to have every EU country joining the Eurozone, except for those (like the UK) that gained exemptions at the creation of the Eurozone.

Yes. There is however nothing forcing a country to immediately join the Euro. One of the criteria having a stable currency conversion rate with the Euro through the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. 8 EU countries currently do not meet this criteria. That includes Sweden and the United Kingdom, with the last one having an opt-out. Scotland would just be added to the list of countries like Bulgaria and Czech that do not yet meet the criteria.

Spain can be bought. And Rajoy would need some significant reassurances.

Simplest suggestion: Independent nations can join if their former mother country isn't a EU member. That would cover Kosovo and Scotland.

Both countries were members of the EU ahead of the creation of the Euro, as I wrote.

Sweden does NOT have an optout. It simply fails to meet the criteria for Euro membership.

 

[kmag]

I think you're reading that statement too literally. Sure, with independence you have the right to use any currency you want, but why become independent to secede all fiscal control to a country that has no obligation to recognise your needs and desires?

Are those needs and desires being recognised just now.

For instance if the BOE is faced with a set of indicators which suggests two courses of action, one which would benefit Scotland and hurt the City of London or another course which would hurt Scotland and benefit the City of London, what would they choose?

Even if you threw the North of England into the equation, I think we know what the answer would be and what it has been.

 

[Audioboxer]

All Scotland needs is to promise some tax deductions for his golf things there. And to demolish those wind mills.

That ain't happening, hence the handbags fights between Salmond and Trump.

I ultimately don't think they'd block it, but there's no way that its going to be a seamless transition like some people are going to claim, for a start all the other accession countries that are on hold (and their EU sponsors) would have something to say about Scotland suddenly jumping to the front of the line when the whole process is supposed to be on hold right now.
That's before we even get to things like joining the Euro and other membership requirements that Scotland as part of the UK currently has an opt out on.

I don't think it would be seamless or instant either, but a starting point for campaigning is to swat down utter nonsense that is used to cannonball fear. No one likes lying and bending the truth, so it's going to be met with blowback. These decisions are too weighty and important to have it be another squabble based on misinformation and fear.

Spain is the new bogeyman, as it's the strongest fallacy on the table right now to be like "oh but Spains blocking you!". Even when people in Spain say, no we're not, or if things are all done legally, nothing to do with us. It's still going to be wheeled out and plastered over Murdoch's papers.

I think you're reading that statement too literally. Sure, with independence you have the right to use any currency you want, but why become independent to secede all fiscal control to a country that has no obligation to recognise your needs and desires?

To be fair, many people were literal, and still are, stating the pound could not be used at it was a bullet point against indyref to say we cannot use the pound. The complexities of it being used are a thing, but not the question of can it.

 

[gerg]

Are those needs and desires being recognised just now.

I'm not suggesting that the UK currently has a good economic and political set-up!

I'm saying instead that you're sacrificing the capacity for some, limited pressure and official political representation for absolutely none at all.

To be fair, many people were literal, and still are, stating the pound could not be used at it was a bullet point against indyref to say we cannot use the pound. The complexities of it being used are a thing, but not the question of can it.

But, when we're actually discussing sensible possibilities, the pound could not in a long run be used. As I said, it's like exclaiming again and again that you could shoot yourself in the foot. Why would you want to?

Yes. There is however nothing forcing a country to immediately join the Euro. One of the criteria having a stable currency conversion rate with the Euro through the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. 8 EU countries currently do not meet this criteria. That includes Sweden and the United Kingdom, with the last one having an opt-out. Scotland would just be added to the list of countries like Bulgaria and Czech that do not yet meet the criteria.

Sweden does NOT have an optout. It simply fails to meet the criteria for Euro membership.

Cool. I did not know this.

 

[SomedayTheFire]

Wrong.

Spain can be bought. And Rajoy would need some significant reassurances.

Isn't that what Spain really wants at the end of the day?

 

[Hazzuh]

It's remarkable seeing all of the remainers and leavers in the EU referendum swapping arguments as soon as it becomes an discussion about Scotland.

 

[Uzzy]

They won't use the British pound. That was explained last time.

They could use it in an informal currency union, but that would have considerable downsides, as was explained in the referendum.

The third option is a realistic one? In what scenario would it be acceptable to the UK or the EU?

Well, the only way for Scotland to have it's own monetary policy would be to have their own currency. Further, if they wanted to join the Euro at some point in the future, they'd need their own currency to start the process. So it'd probably be for the best.

Still, we don't even know if May is going to allow them to have a referendum yet. They need approval from Westminster if they want a legal one, after all.

 

[SymbiantXenos]

I say go for it Scotland.

 

[efyu_lemonardo]

Thanks for all the educating answers about a Scottish currency!

 

[KingSnake]

Both countries were members of the EU ahead of the creation of the Euro, as I wrote.

Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania,

None of them uses Euro or will realistically adopt it in a foreseeable future.

 

[Audioboxer]

I'm not suggesting that the UK currently has a good economic and political set-up!

I'm saying instead that you're sacrificing the capacity for some, limited pressure and official political representation for absolutely none at all.



But, when we're actually discussing sensible possibilities, the pound could not in a long run be used. As I said, it's like exclaiming again and again that you could shoot yourself in the foot. Why would you want to?



Cool. I did not know this.

The pound in 2014 is not the pound in 2016. This time around I'd question whether or not it would be wise to use it. I'd need to be convinced afresh.

 

[Sevenfold]

Haven't you heard, the UK is going to trade freely with everyone.

Lets take back control.

Just need to get Scotland on side this time eh?

http://imgur.com/DAKUBsz

 

[PJV3]

I think the SNP could win the referendum this time, the tories are fairly useless in my opinion and if negotiations go badly then it could be enough to sway the vote.

Timing is the difficult thing this time around.

 

[Billy_Pilgrim]

It's remarkable seeing all of the remainers and leavers in the EU referendum swapping arguments as soon as it becomes an discussion about Scotland.

It really is. Complete mentalists.

 

[jelly]

That ain't happening, hence the handbags fights between Salmond and Trump.

I remember recently Salmond was asked if he had spoken to Trump on the phone since his election win and Salmond said, no but if he did, Trump would have reversed the charges. No love lost there and seems spot on with what Trump is like not paying his due.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Are those needs and desires being recognised just now.

For instance if the BOE is faced with a set of indicators which suggests two courses of action, one which would benefit Scotland and hurt the City of London or another course which would hurt Scotland and benefit the City of London, what would they choose?

Even if you threw the North of England into the equation, I think we know what the answer would be and what it has been.

I don't actually think this is true. If the BoE was in the City of London's pocket, interest rates would be a lot higher than they are right now. Right now as we speak, the interest rates and Bank policy are actually more favourable to Scotland than they are the City. So your theory isn't playing out.

 

[Joni]

Well, the only way for Scotland to have it's own monetary policy would be to have their own currency. Further, if they wanted to join the Euro at some point in the future, they'd need their own currency to start the process. So it'd probably be for the best.

That depends on how the Eurozone looks at informal usage of the Euro currency.

It's remarkable seeing all of the remainers and leavers in the EU referendum swapping arguments as soon as it becomes an discussion about Scotland.

We want the European Union to cover Europe. Scotland in the EU and independent of Britain covers that objective if Britain fucks up better than Scotland in Britain and out of the EU.

 

[Funky Papa]

Isn't that what Spain really wants at the end of the day?

Rajoy seems content enough with Puigdemont being largely ignored by the EU, but there's just way too much posturing to draw a clear picture out the current situation.

I don't think that Spain will block Scotland if it decides to join the EU, but it may make some particular demands on top of asking Scotland to join the line. Whatever happens, I don't believe Scotland will get accelerated membership.

 

[SomedayTheFire]

Rajoy seems content enough with Puigdemont being largely ignored by the EU, but there's just way too much posturing to draw a clear picture out the current situation.

I don't think that Spain will block Scotland if it decides to join the EU, but it may make some particular demands on top of asking Scotland to join the line. Whatever happens, I don't think Scotland will get accelerated member status.

Yeah, he postures about not letting Scotland join, but with Brexit and Scotland getting independence it's kind of a perfect storm for him when it comes to making demands to the EU.

 

[Madness]

The Scots had their clear chance the last referendum and they didn't take it... and look what happened. It was clear to anyone that a lot of English/Brits wanted to leave the EU then so they need to stop lying to themselves about how they had no idea they would vote to leave the EU. They shouldn't have squandered the last opportunity to be independent after centuries and finally have their own country again etc.

Whatever though. I am all for people determining whether they want to go indepedent or not. They will have it really rough as entry to the EU is never guaranteed and will take a long time to complete. Especially if by then Brexit has happened and the UK has effectively left.

 

[Audioboxer]

It really is. Complete mentalists.

Staying in the EU as an inclusive nation backed by all the rest > staying in a closed off rUK.

It's not hard to follow the train of thought. Voting remain and then voting leave this time around falls in line with the ideological thinking to be a part of something "bigger" than a few nations floating on an island who want to look inwards rather than outwards.

If you mean rUK remainers getting angry at Scotland voting leave the UK to stay in the EU (the thing they (rUK remainers) voted for...), it's usually about not wanting the UK to break up or the flag to change... Rule Britania and all that jazz.

 

[ClosingADoor]

Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania,

None of them uses Euro or will realistically adopt it in a foreseeable future.

The goal is very much to get them in the Eurozone, but there is no set timeline. However, if the economic circumstances are right, it will happen.

 

[DavidDesu]

Yeah my whole family have changed opinions, I was very much a no voter for all my life. Given now that we face a lifetime of Conservative right wingers hanging over Scotland, I have had enough. I will vote yes, something I never ever thought I would do.

Welcome aboard!

As for this Spain talk. Literally just the other day an MEP from Spain's ruling party said to the BBC in a televised interview that Spain would NOT block an Indie Scotland joining the EU. He even mentioned that the Catalonian issue is unrelated.


Edit: Also lots of vitriol here about Scotland being screwed if we go independent. And the UK threatening to leave the EU without a deal and literally putting itself into the wilderness in terms of trade is looking economically rosy...? Hahahaha!

 

[Frankfurter]

Back to fantasy land politics again. If Scotland leave they will not be allowed to join the EU so what is the point? What currency are they going to have? In this thread alone you've got people claiming the impossible was going to happen last time, none of the questions have been answered at all. This is just negligence.

Absolute fucking nonsense.

I keep on reading this. Some people than argue that Spain won't ever allow Scotland to join the EU, while some say that's BS. What are the actual facts?

 

[KingSnake]

The goal is very much to get them in the Eurozone, but there is no set timeline. However, if the economic circumstances are right, it will happen.

Sure. In maybe 20 years.

 

[Audioboxer]

Welcome aboard!

As for this Spain talk. Literally just the other day an MEP from Spain's ruling party said to the BBC in a televised interview that Spain would NOT block an Indie Scotland joining the EU. He even mentioned that the Catalonian issue is unrelated.

That doesn't matter, shhh, no facts against the narrative. I posted remarks earlier echoing this (actual quotes), but as I said it'll still be all over Murdoch's papers and spewed non-stop during any upcoming debates.

Risky game to play considering fear mongering caught a lot of shit in the aftermath of 2014. Then again for Brexit around immigration. It's a decreasingly unwise set of cards to play in the UK, let alone in Scotland.

 

[efyu_lemonardo]

It's remarkable seeing all of the remainers and leavers in the EU referendum swapping arguments as soon as it becomes an discussion about Scotland.

I mean obviously leavers would want the UK to remain intact.

Some people (like myself) who were against the UK leaving the EU are just interested in understanding what's best for Scotland now that Brexit is happening.

 

[Protome]

It's remarkable seeing all of the remainers and leavers in the EU referendum swapping arguments as soon as it becomes an discussion about Scotland.

Because the reasons for leaving are completely different in the two situations. Its remarkable how context changes things, right?

 

[Billy_Pilgrim]

I keep on reading this. Some people than argue that Spain won't ever allow Scotland to join the EU, while some say that's BS. What are the actual facts?

The actual facts are the same as last time, which is that Scotland would have to join the EU like any other country, they wouldn't be able to use the £ and there is zero leverage with the scottish economy for any other scenario. In fact they're worse off than they were last time, when socialist land of milk and honey nonsense was calculated on the back of a fag packet and funded by fantasy oil money.

This is truly nuts, it's nuts to see otherwise progressive and sensible people supporting it.

The amount of lies that are eaten wholeheartedly. Just staggering.

 

[Makoto-Yuki]

I'll be voting for Yes again. A lot of people I've spoke to that voted No have changed their mind. Biggest issues were the £ + EU. They wanted to stay in the EU and keep the £ so voted to stay part of the UK. Now, we're being dragged out the EU and the £ is fucked.

Time to get off this sinking ship. Thank goodness for a second chance. Too much has changed and will change.

 

[ClosingADoor]

Sure. In maybe 20 years.

Sure, it depends on their economic state and if they meet the requirements. We just saw Lithuania join a year or so ago, and not long before the other Baltic states. Some Eastern European countries will probably join in the next decade or two again. Same thing can be done for Scotland if a switch to the euro now is not in their best interest.

 

[ss1]

If this doesn’t push May et al. for a soft-Brexit with Europe nothing will in my honest opinion. Only a soft-Brexit will kill the support for independence.

However, I doubt May politically is able to do so in her party and therefore Sturgeon has every chance of winning.

 

[KingSnake]

I keep on reading this. Some people than argue that Spain won't ever allow Scotland to join the EU, while some say that's BS. What are the actual facts?

Spain wants some guarantees against Catalonia plus it's a good negotiating chip within EU. In reality I very much doubt Spain will want to die on this hill, it brings nothing to them really.

The situation 2 years ago was very different as UK was in EU and a parallel to Catalonia could be made. Now, as long as Spain is in EU there's no precedent.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Staying in the EU as an inclusive nation backed by all the rest > staying in a closed off rUK.

This isn't true, though. Scotland conducts over three times as much trade with the rUK as it does with the entire rest of the EU does together. The economic ramifications of Scotland joining the EU make Brexit look pretty tiny in comparison.

Like, if you want to make the case 'it'll be painful as fuck, but sovereignty is worth it' or whatever, be my guest, but the case that independent Scotland would choose to be an EU member or that independent Scotland being in the EU would be economically good is just ignorant.

An independent Scotland would probably work much more closely with the EU than the rUK would. But they'd both be outside it.

 

[HigXx]

Yeah my whole family have changed opinions, I was very much a no voter for all my life. Given now that we face a lifetime of Conservative right wingers hanging over Scotland, I have had enough. I will vote yes, something I never ever thought I would do.

Right here with you man. My social media has literally just errupted with Yes voters