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Nicola Sturgeon Brexit statement : Independence Referendum Mk II
- Thread starter Bits N Pieces
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SomedayTheFire
Member
Anecdotal sure, but I know a number of No voters that have now switches to Yes in the wake of Brexit too.
Maybe this will help them..
http://www.thenational.scot/news/15...arty__We_won_t_veto_Scotland_s_EU_membership/
Taken from this BBC article
As two popular votes have just shown I think it's unwise to use immediate social media as an indicator of the public mood.
Audioboxer
Member
Not necessarily talking just economics, but the countries forward ideological thinking. Some of the benefits that come from the EU are incredibly important for Universities as well (financially and around free movement of students).
If you're going to wheel out trade arguments, isn't it the UKs prime minister who keeps saying all these nations will still do business with the UK, because, of course they will? Won't that same logic apply to Scotland and the rUK? Or is the rUK going to make some petty scene with Scotland and say we're not doing trade because you left us? That would be quite ironic in the face of Brexit...
It requires some brain gymnastics to say Scotlands trade with the rUK is fucked if they leave, while stating everything is okay for the rUK leaving the EU with trade. Honest answers are it's complicated and messy, but I'm pretty certain the rUK will take all the trading it can outside of the EU, even from Scotland if it does become independent.
Billy_Pilgrim
Member
You'd be dealing with Liam Fox, David Davis and Boris Johnson. Think about what you're proposing from anything other than a 100% perfect pie in the sky angle and it crumbles. Exactly like Brexit. Jesus christ.
Huw_Dawson
Member
This is Sturgeon being opportunistic, but you cannot fault her - she has just cause for this now thanks to the three Brexiteers/May/England rejecting centrist parties. If not now for her cause, when?
If/when Brexit goes badly, the UK economy may be in freefall. Sturgeon triggers the referendum for just about the time we leave, basically giving the Scottish people (and only the Scottish people) a referendum on the final deal. By then the Labour party will have in effect collapsed, meaning Scotland is choosing between another decade of negotiating with unwilling Tories for more powers and funds or going it alone.
Scotland will also be in no worse a situation thanks to Brexit - any quick deal with Europe would be better than being shackled to Tory deals with New Zealand.
The fact is that May and the Tories in Westminister are deliberately only looking ahead as far as triggering A50, and then as far as (presumably) crashing out vs an uncompromising Europe lead by Europhiles like Macron, Schultz and Merkel.
To get a good deal May would be hoping on massive victories for anti EU parties in Europe. Which is bananas foreign policy.
Brexit is thus the equivalent act to closing your eyes and punching yourself in the face over and over again.
If/when Brexit goes badly, the UK economy may be in freefall. Sturgeon triggers the referendum for just about the time we leave, basically giving the Scottish people (and only the Scottish people) a referendum on the final deal. By then the Labour party will have in effect collapsed, meaning Scotland is choosing between another decade of negotiating with unwilling Tories for more powers and funds or going it alone.
Scotland will also be in no worse a situation thanks to Brexit - any quick deal with Europe would be better than being shackled to Tory deals with New Zealand.
The fact is that May and the Tories in Westminister are deliberately only looking ahead as far as triggering A50, and then as far as (presumably) crashing out vs an uncompromising Europe lead by Europhiles like Macron, Schultz and Merkel.
To get a good deal May would be hoping on massive victories for anti EU parties in Europe. Which is bananas foreign policy.
Brexit is thus the equivalent act to closing your eyes and punching yourself in the face over and over again.
Audioboxer
Member
What is name dropping shite got to do with anything? Not really the Scottish people's fault those scumbags keep getting into power. Either way, my point still stands. The rUK would probably do any trade it could in a post brexit world, even with Scotland outside of the UK.
The issue with May is she is burning bridges by acting like a cunt towards other countries. Regardless of the fact the UK will still get trade when outwith the EU, we could be doing with a more diplomatic, inclusive and compassionate leader.
gutter_trash
Banned
IMO, Scotland should wait.
They screwed up with their 1st Referendum by making it one year too early before Brexit.
They screwed up with their 1st Referendum by making it one year too early before Brexit.
Makoto-Yuki
Banned
i prefer this picture
Audioboxer
Member
While I would have preferred a win, the people did accept a vote. Big arrogant Alex did do a fairly decent job getting to 45% as well, and ultimately I am far happier the loss dethroned him for Sturgeon. She is much better, although wheeling out Alex for the occasional shitposting, verbally, at the opposition is a laugh. For the abundance of faults the guy has, at least he stepped down as a leader after losing, unlike Corbyn. Two men with some morally decent views and opinions, but not leaders.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
The rUK wouldn't be doing a trade deal with Scotland, though. They'd be doing it with the whole EU, because that's how the EU works. And that deal is going to be terrible, because the EU has to make it terrible and because Theresa May is enthralled to the nutcase brigade.
Which is why I'm not making those gymnastics. I didn't vote Leave. I'm pointing out how the case for Leave and the case for Independence-to-join-EU are the same case, economically, except Independence-to-join-EU is *worse*. The UK will take a big economic hit from leaving the EU - it accounts for nearly a third of the UK's trade. But Scotland would take an even huger hit from not being able to arrange a trade deal with the rUK due to EU membership, because the rUK is over two thirds of Scotland's trade.
Be honest. An independent Scotland would not join the EU. Its main priority by far would be guaranteeing close integration with the rUK's markets, which it cannot do from inside the EU.
Daffy Duck
Member
Sheesh, this island is going to tear itself apart.
Audioboxer
Member
Yes it would, if all goes well. It's what the SNP want, are campaigning on and what the people voted for. You can argue all you want it's not what the country should do, but it's more than certain where we are heading. That's honesty from me, to answer your "be honest".
Quite honestly I think your ideological reasoning is flimsy. If the people want to be in the EU, and the people backed by a government that believe in it we should give it a go. There will be continued trade in some form between Scotland and the rUK.
SomedayTheFire
Member
Sevenfold
Member
Huw_Dawson
Member
The only thing that matters to Sturgeon is independence, and getting the vote she wants once. She is in an analogous situation to Farage and Brexit. The arguments are exceptionally similar, the economic caveats are similar, the rhetoric is similar. And Brexit just won. Why not try again in Scotland?
It is 100% irrelevant what happens after the vote. It's the idea (Trump, Brexit) vs reality. And so far since 2015, idea is winning 2-0.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
The SNP are campaigning on it because bluntly speaking the average voter in any country has no idea how trade works (see: Brexit, Trump) and because it sounds appealing to people who don't know how it actually works. The moment Scotland became independent and an SNP leader actually had to push the button marked "forego having a trade deal with the source of two thirds of our trade", they'd back off sharpish, because it would have consequences. The exception being if the SNP backbench are as nutty as the Tory backbench/Trump and force a stupid thing to happen anyway because Make Scotland Great Again. If your argument is that they actually are this nutty after all, you're not really helping your case in the long run.
Audioboxer
Member
It's more to do with what the people want and believe in. I don't doubt if an acceptable centre-left leaning party who believe in forms of socialisation challenged the SNP minds would be more divided up here. Instead what we have is constant Tory-lite and right-wing pandering. Hence a large rejection of Labour.
Corbyn has zero chance of unification of the party as there are so many Tories in red within the Labour ranks.
A lot of the SNP campaigning is ideological, but guess what, people navigate towards inclusiveness, forward-thinking and generosity/compassion. Okay, sometimes not fully understanding costs, but that is what the government has to handle. If the people have confidence in the government a lot of the finances are rested with them. Rather than every tom, dick and harry needing an accounting degree and reading up on global finances. Although some understanding can be given towards thinking, Trident, over 100 billion, whilst an NHS crumbles... so some financial priorities can get through to Joe Bloggs.
People often understand hard times will mean hard times, but to say it again, ideological political policies often win hearts. No one wants to be a shite, grumpy, inward looking, xenophobic and elitist Nation. Brexit largely won on immigrant rhetoric, and that does not go down well for many hearts.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
What about the Shetland islands, though. Surely enough any clear thinking Briton treasures their fabulous ponies.
In Service
Member
For those who think that Scotland gets an automatic pass into the EU (and good luck there) then this is your next problem.
It raises the prospects of customs' borders (Scotland can't have preferential treatment) and that raises the grim prospects of immigration borders.
Speaking as someone with a Scottish wife and living in the borders (on the English side thank god) things aren't going to go very well for anyone if the Scots vote to leave.
Audioboxer
Member
https://twitter.com/SturgeonAbuse/status/840840786174459904
lol. Of course, minorities and all that jazz, but Twitter continues to be a gold mine with idiots.
SomedayTheFire
Member
Same thing that's going to have to happen with NI.
You don't tackle the issue that none of this is Scotland's doing. Cameron and his Tories gave us Brexit thanks to chasing after UKIP votes. This was thrust upon us, completely against our parliament's will, and the people's will (62% and every voting area in Scotland pro EU). We're making the best of a terrible situation. If we have to just like it and lump it even against the clear majority of the people (SNP vs Tories) then it highlights how imbalanced this union is. No liking it and lumping it from me and many many others.
autumnleaf
Member
Sad times, I'd rather the Union stayed together but it is better for Scotland to go alone at this point. It's a shame London can't follow.
It's not even that. A lot of people are happy with a soft brexit, precisely because the vote was so tight. Everyone wins. But that's not enough for Tory hardliners, they want everything. They want to take the UK out of the EU, and fully control all of the nations from Westminster.
Scotland has to see that this is an opportunity for them to escape the claws of the Tory hardliners.
In Service
Member
No. If the Scots choose to vote for independence then good luck to them. If it works out, i can move 30 miles North without much trouble and join the wonderful world of the free folk.
Only, I don't think it will work out. I'm sorry that it's none of Scotlands doing (and I agree with you) but that doesn't make the decision any more fiscally responsible. I just see it ending in tears. And that's sad for all my family that still live North of the border.
Yes. I hate to say it but the more that Scotland wriggles about this, the less likely I personally think that NI gets a deal that preserves the border situation over there.
Audioboxer
Member
The vote has to be honoured, which it is, but it doesn't mean you cannot democratically seek alternatives. Arguably considering the weight of the vote more could probably have been done in the ways of clauses. All the nations needing to vote leave could have been one, or a majority (3 vs 1), but then of course you'd have England say it's unfair that a small nation can veto their large nation votes.
Which, technically, is true, but it highlights the issue with a Union where one country vastly out-populates the others and has so much of the power. It's why devolved parliaments really needed to be a thing, but they only help so far when it comes to such a big vote like Brexit, and ultimately your tiny nation has very little say and cannot really defend it's own vote. Or it can, which is what we're doing right now, trying to defend our vote. First by pressuring May, which has failed, and finally by considering independence.
I can't imagine they'll be stupid enough to do anything before the EU terms are known but their agenda is clear and they might not get another chance so who knows. I hope sense prevails and all this ugly nationalist rhetoric dies down but they seem hell bent on doing it because it was in their manifesto (hmm, where have we heard that before?)
Woow, I suppose it is safe to say there is a vocal sect who are just drinking the extremist soda. I wonder how some people really think it is acceptable behaviour to go around saying things like that.
SomedayTheFire
Member
As long as May pushes for a hard brexit NI won't get a deal. There's no way they can if they're still part of the Union.
It depresses me so many people have this notion Scotland is unsustainable. As if leaving the UK will instantly make Scotland a wasteland or something. We're a small nation with many strong exports, with leading universities and leading the way with renewable energy, and with a big chunk of Europe's renewable energy potential with wind and wave. We STILL have oil as much as it's not wise to be reliant on that, EVEN WHEN taking into account the low price currently it's still a great asset to have that we hold over many of the other small nations in Europe that do just fine.
Plus this is about far more than just the economy. It's about living in a country we recognise as being the bastion of our beliefs. The ever right wing shitshow in Westminster, Tories looking likely to hold power for at least a couple of parliaments, god knows what Labour will end up doing, is absolutely the polar opposite of where Scotland is as a nation. As Scotland strives to be socially inclusive May and her Tories are kicking out people who have lived here and raised families here for decades! The NHS will absolutely not exist in bottom of the barrel in Brexit UK in a decades time. It will have morphed into some US style fuckery that will cost people dearly. That's just the beginning.
Audioboxer
Member
Put a woman leader in power and some of it comes naturally, challenge the Union and a boatload of it follows. Salmond got personally called everything under the sun, so it's not new. As did Cameron, May, etc. Most people tend to draw a line at damn death threats and calls to violence, though.
Just this week Mhairi Black has been talking about calling it quits ~ https://www.theguardian.com/politic...depressing-parliament-after-single-term-as-mp
More to do with politics in general, but she has been outspoken about how iffy it is to be a female in Westminster politics.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Right, the SNP probably does campaign that way for ideological reasons even though they know they're not right about the EU, but I'm not talking to Nicola Sturgeon here, I'm talking to you, Audioboxer, and I still haven't seen you concede that joining the EU post-independence would be a significant economic hit. You're not a politician, you're a citizen and a voter like I am, and we ought to be able to have serious and meaningful conversations about these things, instead of saying 'if everyone believes really hard in the SNP, trade barriers will have no effect!' which is a surprisingly accurate summation of the second sentence of this quoted section.
Audioboxer
Member
Anything post independence will be an economic hit. A lot of what is going on up here right now is ideological. It's not always a bad thing though, when your alternative is such a toxic ideological setup with a bunch of loonies in Westminster that will stink up the UK for generations to come.
You generally inspire and motivate people, and they will often work hard and try to prosper in a small nation. A small nation can be self-serving in the EU, out of the EU, wherever. Part of the key to having a successful citizen base is instilling confidence, belief and inclusiveness. Of course, you do need the educational institutes around to educate and give people skills, so its a good thing for all our failings up here, we do still prioritise basic higher education for free. Tax payers pay for that, but if you can educate students they often become high tax payers themselves. Rinse/repeat.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Yes, but some things will be bigger hits than others. What is more damaging for an independent Scotland economically? Joining the EU and foregoing a bilateral trade deal with rUK? Or staying outside of the EU and forming a bilateral trade deal with the rUK?
I just want a former/latter response. You're not a politician, you don't have to give me the Tony Blair non-answers about hope/confidence/unicorns full of self-esteem.
Audioboxer
Member
Are you the arbitrator that states 100% those are the only options? As this sounds very like your own "Audioboxer gotcha" scenario, with you throwing in the Blair snark to boot.
Out of your two procured choices, probably joining the EU. Happy? It doesn't change anything else I've said answering your demand. If that's the way you want it framed in the bettetogether campaign, prepare to lose, badly.
In Service
Member
Look, I admire your goals here. You're clearly passionate and optimistic about things. If this is about your independence for independence's sake then I'd vote (if I had a vote) for independence.
But it's not just that. It's also a vote for the economic future of Scotland and that's what worries me. A lot of my family on that side voted to remain not because they weren't proud of Scotland but because they couldn't see economic survival without the assistance of the Union. I can't see anything that changes that now. In fact, being outside of the EU just makes things worse. Credit to you for your beliefs and never change though!
Now, a true Indy2 would be open to 16+ and also Scots living outside of Scotland. Let's get that on the agenda to fairly reflect the Scottish voice.
This is going to be the battleground for Indy2. Scotland wants to stay in Single Market and that might mean they want to stay in Europe. Will Europe have them and how long will that take?
The proposition of Scotland becoming independent without EU membership is a little scary. Nicola has talked alot about how she thinks she could be grandfathered into the EU but comments from EU leaders suggest not. I think her speech today might get EU tongues wagging. I'm watching this space in particular over coming weeks.
nelsonroyale
Member
Bring it. The UK is currently on the road to disaster given the environmental and geopolitical forces that are likely to be unleashed over the comming century. Scotland may not fair well either, but the least it can do is choose to tread a somewhat less destructive, ignorant and cynical path.
In Service: The whole discourse around Scotland's economic future was filled with misinformation from both sides. The level of discourse was atrocious, with many people articulating views of macroeconomic issues that had little clue how the nation would be impacted, let alone personal impacts. There was also the fact that many partisan factions (i.e., Deutsch Bank) were given a mouth piece and printed verbatum in the press. I hope to hell we can move beyond narrow economics in the upcoming debate, because the world is far more complex then partisan field of speculative economics would dupe us into believing.
In Service: The whole discourse around Scotland's economic future was filled with misinformation from both sides. The level of discourse was atrocious, with many people articulating views of macroeconomic issues that had little clue how the nation would be impacted, let alone personal impacts. There was also the fact that many partisan factions (i.e., Deutsch Bank) were given a mouth piece and printed verbatum in the press. I hope to hell we can move beyond narrow economics in the upcoming debate, because the world is far more complex then partisan field of speculative economics would dupe us into believing.
bonesmccoy
Banned
IndyRef2: May or Merkel?
How are you feeling about Britain's economy going forward? It looks like it is massively cutting it's nose off to spite it's face. Real talk of the Tories leaving the EU WITHOUT a deal would be truly disastrous for us all, and any hopes of an advantageous deal for the UK seem slim. An independence vote for me is now seeking to make the best of a bad situation and setting us up to be in the best position we can be in a few years from now once the dust has settled. The UK is not the world powerhouse economy it seems to think it is. Scotland can be a self-sufficient decently wealthy economy, while I'm sure many will argue against me mentioning deficits (which we have not actually had any control over, look to Westminster for mismanagement of our huge oil wealth for the past 30 years) etc.
A couple of other thoughts. Who would even lead the pro-Union campaign in this referendum? Ruth Davidson is probably the most effective Scottish politician outside of the SNP, but I can hardly see her appealing to supporters of the other parties. Darling's in the Lords now, and Brown left front line politics, so I don't see either of them wanting to lead the campaign.
Also, should the SNP win the campaign for Independence before the final vote about Brexit in Westminster is taken, May would have such large majority that she'd be able to force through any kind of deal.
Also, should the SNP win the campaign for Independence before the final vote about Brexit in Westminster is taken, May would have such large majority that she'd be able to force through any kind of deal.
I think it is safe to say the best thing for Scotland to do if they do leave the UK is to join the EU. It is a small country that really cannot muscle its way into negotiating with incumbents. I think as an idea, it is best if it joins the EU if it does exit the UK because it helps keep its devotion towards sustainable energy and it can attract lots of FDI from investors who might see it as a reasonable alternative to the UK. That said though, I think the UK would best invest aggressively towards ensuring that the exit doesn't become a doom prophecy come true. Personally I hope all parties do well for their respective journeys.
There is no gain in hoping that Brexit turns into a failure, same with the EU. I see lots of Brexit people praying and hoping that the EU collapses which is a rather selfish evil thing to do and the same for the remain who pray the exit turns into a horrible nightmare, everyone should hope that there is success for everyone. I think there are bigger issues that threaten humanity way more than political view points
There is no gain in hoping that Brexit turns into a failure, same with the EU. I see lots of Brexit people praying and hoping that the EU collapses which is a rather selfish evil thing to do and the same for the remain who pray the exit turns into a horrible nightmare, everyone should hope that there is success for everyone. I think there are bigger issues that threaten humanity way more than political view points
nelsonroyale
Member
English people need to start building up a movement to oppose the Tories, and look to increase parties that support real change...The younger generation need to look to new political options, including the greens. The populace has become so shorn of political imagination it is no wonder that England is in such a state politically.
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