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Nintendo lowers forecast from ¥55B profit to ¥25B loss [3DS 18M->13.5; WiiU 9M->2.8M]

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
I think Nintendo has a real issue with the software. Their customers outside Japan don't buy software (1st or 3rd party). For Wii U the situation is really bad in that area, when you have the likes of Pikmin 3 and LCU with 230-250k LTD on an install basis of almost 2 mio. But for 3ds it isn't much better. 3ds is the best selling platform in US, JP and UK and still the 3DS games didn't fire up the charts anywhere.
I think Nintendo needs to re-think their pricing model and how they sell the games to their own base.

Edit: and the Wii U price cut is hurting them badly because of the software under-performing, I don't expect any other price cutting soon. Not until they find a way to cut costs dramatically. And Gamepad is not a solution if the R&D cost for that move are way too high.
 

MisterHero

Super Member
Nintendo think it exists in a vacuum; that somehow it isn't competing directly against Sony, Microsoft, and to a certain extent, Steam. Their services suffer because they don't feel the need to match the competition, so we have instances where their digital eco-system not only lags far behind their competitors, it's also anti-consumer as well. If I have a choice between, say, buying a voucher for Steam or buying one for the eShop, I'm going to get better value for my money from Steam. Therefore, my eShop purchases are reserved for essential downloads, rather than loading up my account as I would with Steam.

Nintendo needs to do more to persuade consumers that the services they offer, with digital being absolutely paramount and essential this generation, value for money. I buy Steam/PSN vouchers on a whim, I won't do the same for the eShop just yet. I bought my Wii U in December, knowing that it's practically on life support, I have a lot of affection for the brand, but I also want value for money. Nintendo needs to realise they can't put their "Nintendo Tax" on games anymore, not when the competition is so fierce.
Maybe their Online service is the way it is because they don't want to charge for it. PS4 and XBO require subscriptions for multiplayer. The respective consoles ignore their predecessors' libraries. Wii U doesn't, but the price for compatability is the potential for matching PS4.

I'm not crazy about Nintendo ending support for their current library, while giving away games like PS+, and putting MP behind a paywall. Improved service usually means extra costs for the user. You get what you pay for, I suppose.
 
Iwata said he’s considering a new business structure, and any announcement about a pay cut would come later this month when the company releases third-quarter earnings. There are no plans to reshuffle management in the near term, he said.

What an asshole
 

jmizzal

Member
Mario Kart won't do shit just like with 3D Land they have been spamming way too many Mario Kart games in a short period of time. Its just more of the same. Yawn inducing. By the time Smash Bros comes out hopefully most gamers have moved on to bigger and frankly better things. I really hope Nintendo learns a HARSH lesson for resting on their laurels.

But yet COD, Madden, AC, 2K, and Just Dance yearly games top the charts, plz stop
 

B.O.O.M

Member
Horrible numbers. Simply horrible. This misses everyone's most pessimistic expectations for operating income expectations by $400M+ USD and baseline estimates by over $650M+ USD. No one seriously thought they were going to hit $1 B USD in operating profits. Most people were seeing Nintendo hitting 30% of the target as a baseline. That they are expecting a loss for the year of $350M USD is mind-boggling.

Only four things can explain these losses IMHO:

1. Nintendo's gross margins on software must have shrunk dramatically. Meaning that they are barely making any money on their own software much less third party software which has all dramatically dried up on both of their platforms globally. This bodes very badly for Nintendo in general - even if they were able to go third-party and hypothetically sell 2-3X the number of games (which I very much doubt) - what this shows is that Nintendo has lost its pricing power at retail - people aren't ready and willing to pay the Nintendo premium.

2. Nintendo bled money at retail trying to push hardware - far more than anyone expected - they must be eating close to a $100+ loss per Wii U sold right now or more - not just because of manufacturing cost - but because they are literally having to compensate retailers to provide them with shelf space and having to eat the price drop at the same time. This is horrible - because even if they take that much of a loss - the low gross margins on their own first-party games isn't sufficient to help them break even.

3. Nintendo isn't going to get Mario Kart or Smash out by early April - otherwise they would have been able to book orders under the current fiscal year. It looks like both games are going to be delayed well into the summer or into the Fall now. I am almost 100% positive that if it were even possible to get the games out by April or May - Nintendo would have done everything in their power to do so. It looks like Nintendo still hasn't effectively transitioned to HD development - not because of capability - but because they want to preserve gross margin based on their lower expected revenue numbers - and it's compromising their ability to get projects out the door on-time.

4. Nintendo is playing shell games with their accounting - booking contractual payments to Intelligent Systems and their other closely related entities as operating losses for tax purposes but which are effectively asset purchases - it means that they are dramatically restructuring their teams and it's going to be far more expensive than we thought.

If these estimates hold up - Nintendo will have generated a $1 B+ operating loss over the past three years. Here's the kicker though: Nintendo is still sitting on over $1 B+ in inventory that they haven't impaired yet (the IR report makes no mention of it). There is a good chance that over 80% of that is Wii U hardware which means that it's going to continue to be a drag on earnings over the next twelve months.

In any case, I don't foresee any major changes for Q3 happening. Nintendo is still going to engage in a buyback of 5% - which is going to drain their cash by another $1 B USD.

That means in three years Nintendo's war chest will have been depleted close to $2.5 billion USD from inventory impairment, operating losses, and share repurchases. Another $500M USD is going to be gone for asset / real estate purchases and capital investments. Their next hardware projects are going to require about ~$1.5 B USD in capital reserves at a minimum that are going to be tied up in the next two years as they wind down their existing platforms, and I don't see third-party licensing revenue coming back in a big way to offset declining gross margins on their first-party software.

Basically that means Nintendo could burn through ~$4 B in cash throughout this entire cycle and in anticipation of the next, with a very high cost structure intact. Like Sony, they will have effectively wiped out cumulative years of profit.

If we assume that Nintendo keeps building up human resources this coming year to meet their hiring targets, they are probably going to break-even in terms of operating profit for the next fiscal year or make a slight profit - but I'm even second guessing my own ability to understand Nintendo's gross margins now - someone at NOA or NOE is effectively writing giant checks to retailers to keep the channel alive - and that's really not good at all - Apple was in this same position in the late 90s and had to create their own retail stores to stop bleeding money to major retailers. Nintendo isn't going to have the investor support to launch a giant retail project in the US and EU, particularly when they no longer have proven pricing power which would be the primary argument to go that route.

Difficult time to be a Nintendo shareholder.

Fantastic break down of the situation.
 
Mario Kart won't do shit just like with 3D Land they have been spamming way too many Mario Kart games in a short period of time. Its just more of the same. Yawn inducing. By the time Smash Bros comes out hopefully most gamers have moved on to bigger and frankly better things. I really hope Nintendo learns a HARSH lesson for resting on their laurels.

I don't believe so. Mario Kart 7 came out in 2011 and the last console Mario Kart, Mario Kart Wii, was released in April 2008. That's one Mario Kart every 3 years, or one Mario Kart per handheld/console every 6 years since Super Circuit (2001).
 

AniHawk

Member
Well I'm not a financial person but I would assume IF Nintendo did fall into a situation so dire that they would become 3rd party I would expect both Sony and Microsoft to make serious plays to acquire them if only for their legendary IP library. Activision and EA would put in similar bids. The only alternative is if they pull a Square and merge with another big Japenese Company (konami or capcom?) to stay viable

as far as i know, ea, activision, and sony don't have it in them to buy nintendo. it would cost them too much.

capcom is really small comparatively and not worth merging with. konami is bigger, but they don't offer anything of worth to nintendo outside of a pachinko business.

microsoft could make a play to buy them, but there are already doubts over the billions they've spent on the xbox division so far, and then they'd spend billions upon billions more just to have a first-party studio ill-suited for their console.

i suppose there could be a partnership, but it would have to be with a company looking to expand their presence in the living room somehow. it certainly wouldn't be a gaming company, but perhaps something like panasonic.
 
One well known fact is that Nintendo games are traded in far less than Xbox and Playstation games. Go to any Gamestop and you'll see that.

I wonder if that has had any psychological effect on the perception of the Wii U library.

Of course, it DOES have a lot less games, but without a fully fleshed out 'used' section, I wonder if that effectively halves the perception of the library size even further.
 

ninjarr

Neo Member
I think Nintendo has a real issue with the software. Their customers outside Japan don't buy software (1st or 3rd party). For Wii U the situation is really bad in that area, when you have the likes of Pikmin 3 and LCU with 230-250k LTD on an install basis of almost 2 mio. But for 3ds it isn't much better. 3ds is the best selling platform in US, JP and UK and still the 3DS games didn't fire up the charts anywhere.
I think Nintendo needs to re-think their pricing model and how they sell the games to their own base.

I think you're absolutely right that their pricing model is hurting them. There are so many games being produced right now, I am more inclined to buy one closer to my taste for cheaper than potentially against my taste for more expensive. That goes for mechanics, story, art, whatever. The market is getting saturated, in a good way, and they need to compete.
 
But yet COD, Madden, AC, 2K, and Just Dance yearly games top the charts, plz stop

Madden tops the charts because its arguably the best Football game and the mass market loves football. AC, COD, and Just Dance are fads that will soon be joining tony hawk, guitar hero, rock band, and medal of honor in oblivion.
 

DieH@rd

Banned
N64
96/97 - 5.80 million
97/98 - 9.42 million
98/99 - 7.86 million
99/00 - 6.49 million
00/01 - 2.85 million
01/02 - 0.50 million

Total - 32.92 million

GameCube
01/02 - 3.80 million
02/03 - 5.76 million
03/04 - 5.02 million
04/05 - 3.92 million
05/06 - 2.35 million
06/07 - 0.73 million
07/08 - 0.16 million

Total - 21.74 million

Wii
06/07 - 5.84 million
07/08 - 18.61 million
08/09 - 25.95 million
09/10 - 20.53 million
10/11 - 15.08 million
11/12 - 9.84 million
12/13 - 3.98 million
13/14 - 0.47 million?

Total - 100.30 million


Wii U
12/13 - 3.45 million
13/14 - 2.80 million?


336hpau.jpg



wii-u-sad-1534973.jpg
 
Even if they actually decided to go third party, that wouldn't happen nor be announced shortly. They have to release their big loads still and give them breath to sell at their best to overcome lossess, devlopment costs and maybe profit. Furthermore, they should have comparable big titles from their main franchises ready to make their 3rd party exploit effective, and this won't be the case sooner than a 2-3 year time at best. (unless they want to port WiiU titles such as MK and Smash)
 

LoveCake

Member
Not good reading from a investor point of view nor a gamer point of view either, the WiiU is going to be even harder to turn around now i would think.

As for people looking for someone to blame, maybe Iwata set Luigi up for this roll, being the 'Year of Luigi" ?
 
Wonderful post. Thanks so much for this summary. I would give a smiley to this post, but then I realize the predicament I'm in. :-(

:(

The revision to their forecast was released after 3 PM in Japan, meaning after the markets closed. It's going to be a blood bath when Tokyo opens up in ~13 hours. I mean, Nintendo still has ample cash... but the difference between that cash and the value of their operating business could see a 10-15% decline in 7974 (or a ~25% decline in the perceived value of their operating business accounting for goodwill on their intellectual property).

Again the issue here is the loss of pricing power. This is all Nintendo had going for it. Without that their entire software business falls apart - whether they remain first party or go third party is irrelevant - because it means the premium-paying audience is gone.

Moreover, I have a bad, bad feeling this isn't going to be a Nintendo-only problem.

NPD numbers for the Playstation 4 and Xbox One on the software revenue side were not very healthy either even if NPD was trying to spin it positively. Software revenues were flat relative to the past year despite new console launches and huge numbers of new SKUs - many of which had higher production and development costs - and that's before the retailer kickbacks and marketing outlays that inevitably ate into the gross margins of all publishers.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sony books another loss on video games - and at this point they basically are playing derivatives games and selling insurance to pay off their debt servicing requirements. Ironically Microsoft might make it out ok as they are losing the least on their console - and the tie-in for Xbox Live Gold was close to 90%. Still, third party publishers are going to be in miserable pain and I wouldn't be surprised if Activision starts resorting to desperate tactics - and even takes another cash infusion from Tencent to stockpile cash - because if Destiny flops - well - it's not going to look pretty... They have so much riding on that game that if it underperforms significantly, the depletion of cash to cover debt servicing could wipe out the equity holders.

As an aside: I've been building a model that attempts to price in the implied value of piracy into the original DS. The thing is, there are estimates that between 30-50% of DS units were purchased for piracy, and Nintendo was able to keep a fairly high price for their hardware as a result. In many ways - the games that some people pirated effectively had a value of less than $2-5 each - the same price as most smartphone apps. I'll post the results when I get a chance.
 

L Thammy

Member
capcom is really small comparatively and not worth merging with. konami is bigger, but they don't offer anything of worth to nintendo outside of a pachinko business.

Again, MT Framework, Panta Rhei, Fox Engine, those sort of things could actually be a really useful asset. Capcom of America is pretty good as far as data collection from what I can tell, could also be useful.

It's more that these companies are moving to mobile. Why would they want Nintendo?
 

JoeM86

Member
Mario Kart won't do shit just like with 3D Land they have been spamming way too many Mario Kart games in a short period of time. Its just more of the same. Yawn inducing. By the time Smash Bros comes out hopefully most gamers have moved on to bigger and frankly better things. I really hope Nintendo learns a HARSH lesson for resting on their laurels.

What? How have they been spamming "too many" Mario Kart games. They have been one per console...
 
Again, MT Framework, Panta Rhei, Fox Engine, those sort of things could actually be a really useful asset. Capcom of America is pretty good as far as data collection from what I can tell, could also be useful.

It's more that these companies are moving to mobile. Why would they want Nintendo?

I'm pretty sure this was just a fad until everyone got wind of PS4 sales numbers and realized game consoles were still viable.
 

MisterHero

Super Member
as far as i know, ea, activision, and sony don't have it in them to buy nintendo. it would cost them too much.

capcom is really small comparatively and not worth merging with. konami is bigger, but they don't offer anything of worth to nintendo outside of a pachinko business.

microsoft could make a play to buy them, but there are already doubts over the billions they've spent on the xbox division so far, and then they'd spend billions upon billions more just to have a first-party studio ill-suited for their console.

i suppose there could be a partnership, but it would have to be with a company looking to expand their presence in the living room somehow. it certainly wouldn't be a gaming company, but perhaps something like panasonic.
MS tried to buy them for $25 billion before the Xbox. That was like 5-6x their actual worth at the time.

Nintendo's a bit bigger than back then. Maybe the buyout price wouldn't increase proportionately, but it would be a lot of money in any case.

I'm not interested in seeing Nintendo contribute to making another monolithic corporation more monolithic. One never knows though...
 
NPD numbers for the Playstation 4 and Xbox One on the software revenue side were not very healthy either even if NPD was trying to spin it positively. Software revenues were flat relative to the past year despite new console launches and huge numbers of new SKUs - many of which had higher production and development costs - and that's before the retailer kickbacks and marketing outlays that inevitably ate into the gross margins of all publishers.

Wouldn't the lack of digital tracking make things seem worse than they actually are? Or are we taking into account comments from the platform holders that I didn't see?
 
What? How have they been spamming "too many" Mario Kart games. They have been one per console...

Mario Kart 7 came out in 2011 and now we are getting Mario Kart 8 with marginal changes aside from HD graphics a little over 2 years later. They need to give MK a break for a whole generation like how there was no Metroid game on n64. You need to give franchises a break so they can have a big revival later.
 

JoeM86

Member
What an asshole

How? You realise they reshuffled management just a few months ago and the results of which won't hit until later this year. What use would doing it again do?

Mario Kart 7 came out in 2011 and now we are getting Mario Kart 8 with marginal changes aside from HD graphics a little over 2 years later. They need to give MK a break for a whole generation like how there was no Metroid game on n64. You need to give franchises a break so they can have a big revival later.

Because Metroid selling less than 2 million is a comeback compared to

Mario Kart Double Dash: 7 million
Mario Kart Wii: 32 million
Mario Kart 7: 8 million (when it was in a "doomed" console).

No.
 

Zinthar

Member
Losses don't just disappear when a fiscal year is over. They're just not carried over on the books. The Xbox division has significant cumulative losses that a few good years don't make magically go away.

Again, the calculation as to whether to continue operating a business rest entirely with the future prospects for the business (accounting for the opportunity cost of what you could do with the assets received from dispensing with it). As such, the loss on the original Xbox is completely irrelevant because they're not even operating the same business model now from a hardware cost reduction standpoint. The Xbox 360 appears to be quite profitable but for the RROD writedown (and possibly profitable nonetheless with it included, but we lack the information).

With the Xbone, at worst they're taking a small per unit loss at launch (initial game sales, XBL subs, and accessories probably swing that to a profit). Both they and Sony learned from past mistakes and opted to modify the traditional razor blade business model by not taking a huge loss on the hardware at launch. With Nintendo becoming a non-factor, both companies look poised to move 80M units. If this happens, they're going to make a lot of money this generation.

But hey, if you'd like to value a business based on balance sheets & income statements from 5 years prior rather than future prospects, I'd be happy to sell you some RIM stock. Please base your valuation off of the $1.89 billion profit they earned in FY2009 and the resulting hoard of cash they had on hand. Conversely, Facebook over the course of its lifetime has lost billions of dollars... guess they should just close up shop.
 

Dark_castle

Junior Member
Nintendo just needs to ditch consoles. There's a future for them on dedicated handhelds, especially if they keep a lock on Japanese titles. There is no future for them in home consoles.

The truth.

Sell Monolith Soft to Sony, and transfer SMT x FE to 3DS.

The only games left for Wii U that're really attractive are HD Zelda and Platinum games. Smash is already on 3DS, and there already is a great Zelda game for 3DS.
 

AniHawk

Member
That could actually work. One could as well be a semi-rebranded 3DS, and the other a Wii U compatible machine. Some people are worried that by launching a new console in 2015, Nintendo might lose potential growth in 3DS for no reason -- yet at the same time, there needs to be a move in the Wii U front, and maintaining the home system doesn't seem too viable.

If Nintendo essentially supports 3DS for 5 more years as a budget / entry-level portable (that will surely get another Pokémon generation), and still introduces their next platform in 2015 (in the form of a portable Wii U -- also 3DS compatible), they will be able to breath a little from the current situation. Considering Wii U's low sales and cherry-picked library quality-wise, such platform will also be very attractive to the (many) non-Wii U owners.

Of course that all depends on how likely a ≥$200 system with a Wii U SoC is. Let's not forget that even on its current form, people debate that Wii U should drop the GamePad, and that's not possible for a handheld. I suppose that such platform won't suffer from big R&D costs (Wii U's streaming technology, for example, is readily available), but that's still one thing to consider.

Another risk lies in the branding of those two machines. If they embody a reform for Nintendo and fail, it will be a PR nightmare. It reminds a little of the replacement of the Game Boy brand from Nintendo DS. That went well, but it took a long while for Nintendo to confirm to the world the Game Boy brand is actually succeeded.

i think the problem is that the software may be too similar across both platforms. while the interaction is somewhat different (the wii u allows for more social multiplayer), the design of a lot of the games can be similar, and the libraries kinda blend together. if nintendo has certain games that sell to a wide audience like pokemon and mario, they can have that in 3d goodness while keeping the same graphical jump their handhelds have always enjoyed. instead of turning their console into a handheld, it's more about making a handheld that hooks up to the tv... so it interacts like their last console.

the smaller handheld would feature a simpler interface. maybe just the ds's control scheme and only one screen. this would push design differences in software between the two as well as requiring less teams. this would be a 'new line' of hardware to replace their dead console line, even though it's another handheld. then imagine if the hybrid has wii fit u installed on it, and the 'game boy' has a pedometer function, and that there would be other ways to have the two devices to interact.
 

Sandfox

Member
I'm pretty sure this was just a fad until everyone got wind of PS4 sales numbers and realized game consoles were still viable.
I'm pretty sure that's not true.


Mario Kart 7 came out in 2011 and now we are getting Mario Kart 8 with marginal changes aside from HD graphics a little over 2 years later. They need to give MK a break for a whole generation like how there was no Metroid game on n64. You need to give franchises a break so they can have a big revival later.

Pretty much every big game on the market is coming out once a year and you have a problem with two Mario Kart games coming out on different platforms two years apart from each other.
 

AzaK

Member
What about the un-sold inventory for 7M WiiUs ?. At this rate it will take 2 years for them to sell it. They can't simply store it in warehouses in China for that long. I see a dramatic price cut coming soon to clear up those units.
There are 7m unsold Wii U's?

:(
Again the issue here is the loss of pricing power. This is all Nintendo had going for it. Without that their entire software business falls apart - whether they remain first party or go third party is irrelevant - because it means the premium-paying audience is gone.

Could you explain what that means and why you think Nintendo has lost their pricing power?
 

Nessus

Member
Over the past 30 years, Nintendo has faced a grand total of two losses, both of which were under Iwata's reign. It's time for him to leave.

Perhaps, but people seem to forget that Nintendo's most successful portable AND its most successful home console were both also under Iwata.

Prior to Iwata the sales of Nintendo's consoles had been successively less with each generation (NES: 61 million -> SNES: 49 million -> N64: 32 million -> GameCube: 21 million, and though way more impressive, the sales of their portables declined under Yamauchi too, Game Boy: 118 million -> GBA: 81 million).

Whatever else he did, Iwata reversed this trend.

Also, I would hardly consider the 3DS a "loss"; it has already far outsold the GameCube, which you are apparently not considering a loss.

The only other true failure for Nintendo was the Virtual Boy, which was under Yamauchi.

All of this isn't to say that Nintendo shouldn't maybe discuss the possibility of him stepping down, but give credit where credit is due.
 

69wpm

Member
Iwata needs to resign anything less is totally unacceptable.

Yep, I can totally see the masses rushing out, buying Wii Us and burning flags with Iwata's head on it screaming "please understand". /s

Also: People really thinkg firing Iwata will get a better person up there? Who? A suit who will fire 500 people without blinking?
 
Still a game that sold 8million and has a massive cult following that seems to have a endless amount of new blood (most of my areas current smash bro players where not around 3 years ago)
I dont think anyone can deny that smash will help it massively, much more then wind waker did.

Sure, I deny that it will help massively. Same goes for Mario Kart. They will give it a temporary boost, but it won't last long and those games won't even sniff the sales of Wii entries.

The Wii U is a lost cause, and i don't think it will ever be a success. 20 million lifetime sales if it's lucky.

I have one so I want it to be a modest success... but I don't have much faith at all.
 

B.O.O.M

Member
Because that would suddenly make the Wii U sell?

Are you 'trying' to avoid reality? A new leadership could lead to a new path. Nintendo needs a fresh start. It's not only about short term but mainly for the long term impact to the company
 

Kosma

Banned
There is not much Nintendo can do with the WiiU except

1) lower price (possible padless sku)
2) ride it out

Even if they started making games people care about now those still wouldnt come out till the gen is over with 3/4 years dev time.
 

JoeM86

Member
Are you 'trying' to avoid reality? A new leadership could lead to a new path. Nintendo needs a fresh start. It's not only about short term but mainly for the long term impact to the company

New leadership would throw the company into turmoil and chances are it would actually put the company onto the path to death.
 

Jomjom

Banned
Maybe their Online service is the way it is because they don't want to charge for it. PS4 and XBO require subscriptions for multiplayer. The respective consoles ignore their predecessors' libraries. Wii U doesn't, but the price for compatability is the potential for matching PS4.

I'm not crazy about Nintendo ending support for their current library, while giving away games like PS+, and putting MP behind a paywall. Improved service usually means extra costs for the user. You get what you pay for, I suppose.

I'm not buying this because free PSN was and is lightyears ahead of what Nintendo has currently on both the 3ds and the Wii U. Just because its free doesnt mean it has to be crappy.
 
Time to reboot the Gamecube brand, now that the Wii brand is dead !

GAMECUBE 2


It's Time for Nintendo to stop fucking around with hardware altogether! Seriously Nintendo just stop.


Even if Nintendo somehow pulled its head out of its ass to figure out how to put out decent hardware at a decent price, does anyone here really think Nintendo has it in them to maintain a hardware platform in today market? Against very mature and well integrated platforms like PSN, Live, or Steam?
 
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