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Nintendo Shares Drop 5% Following Pre-TGS Announcements, Analysts Comment

Cygnus X-1

Member
Maybe the only problem is that during the DS/Wii era, Nintendo got way too much attention and too many people became shareholders hoping the company would become the Apple of the videogame industry. And now that revenue and income of Nintendo returned to the pre-DS and Wii era, these shareholders are surprised and keep making suggestions that do not suit Nintendo's way to make business at all.

Well, things are back the way they were before I guess. Nintendo has more money then before though :lol
 

MaddenNFL64

Member
It's mostly because even while Nintendo was exploding in market cap, they are still a conservative company with a relative low workforce for their size. They should have their fingers in every pie, expanding their armada & buying up companies like their is no tomorrow, expanding their own services larger, and larger. Creating their own app stores, ad revenue streams, and whatnot to create more revenue.

But Nintendo doesn't want to make a DVD player, or be an entertainment hub. They make games, and while I guarantee they have consultants smashing their heads on a wall every day over it, the dudes who run the company want to just do what they do.

These investors bought into a company they didn't understand, at all.

edit: shit, just imagine what a dude like John Riccitello would do with Nintendo. People think EA, and Activision are scary, Nintendo could stomp around like a mad man with the right(wrong?) man at the helm.
 
krypt0nian said:
Go to the iOS gaming thread here on GAF. Endless amazing games by word of mouth is far better than the best market UI.

It's good to have GAF.

That's fine for us, but to the general public if you're not angry birds and not in the top 25, you don't exist.
 

_Xenon_

Banned
I think it's kind of pointless to bring articles like this into gaming board because what investors care about and what gamers care about (or rather, what 3rd parties care about) are essentially different things.

Investors only care about market expending (because you can't stop inflation), and Nintendo is dropping their newly expended market (mobile casual games) and going back to the core party. 3rd parties only care about console companies market share, they don't care about how much Nintendo make each year, or what the current price of SONY stock is. And gamers only care about what kind of game they can get (3rd party support), which is influenced by market share, which is also where this "my company owns your company in this conference" mindset comes from.

So yeah, oranges and apples.
 
M3d10n said:
Now this is much more logical than releasing their games on AppStore (they don't get to pay anyone 30% of their revenue) and is basically what Sony is trying to do with PS Suite, the difference being that Nintendo themselves have enough content of their own to feed the store while PS Suite relies on 3rd parties.

However, it's too soon for this. The Android app market is still incredibly chaotic, hardware is still heavily in flux and app sales are a far cry from compared to iOS. Right now it would hurt more than help, but I can see this happening in 3-5 years.
Baby steps. Maybe first they put the "Virtual Console" on Steam, Android store, etc. Classic properties is one of Nintendo's unique strengths versus their competition, and it would conflict less with the new R&D being done on/for their own platforms. It'd be a nice way to gauge what sort of money Nintendo could actually make on someone else's platform, and could even strengthen some relationships with outside firms like Valve or Google, which could down the road come back to benefit Nintendo's own machines.
 

megalowho

Member
This investor doom and gloom is really puzzling, did not think things would turn on Nintendo so quickly and so irrationally. Sure, no one likes making less money. But Nintendo has been at this for a long, long time. They've had failures both big and small in the past, the jury is still out on the not even 12 month old 3DS yet for some reason people insist on painting it as the worst thing to happen to the company and basically a reason to close up shop.

So many shortsighted ideas on how to "fix" Nintendo with no regard to their corporate culture or history. These articles never come across as being knowledgeable about the gaming industry at large but hey they know Apple, and Apple=$$$. Why settle for $ when there's $$$ to be made??!? Get on that F2P MarioVille already, Nintendo!!
 

ymmv

Banned
jman2050 said:
The big masterstroke about all this is that Apple will end up being the big winner in all this. They've taken an entirely hands-off approach to the gaming sector of the App Store, only really improving their already existing game development tools for developers. No matter what happens to individual companies, Apple gets 30% of everything while investing very little above what they normally would. When the other shoe drops and investors end up losing money, so what, it's not like they cared about games in the first place. It was and always will be a bullet point for them to sell their shiniest and newest iDevices to the masses.

And I can't see how anyone can begrudge them for that.

It's funny how Steve Jobs always gloated about the NUMBER of available apps on their mobile platform, and never about the quality.
 

Instro

Member
_Xenon_ said:
I think it's kind of pointless to bring articles like this into gaming board because what investors care about and what gamers care about (or rather, what 3rd parties care about) are essentially different things.

Investors only care about market expending (because you can't stop inflation), and Nintendo is dropping their newly expended market (mobile casual games) and going back to the core party. 3rd parties only care about console companies market share, they don't care about how much Nintendo make each year, or what the current price of SONY stock is. And gamers only care about what kind of game they can get (3rd party support), which is influenced by market share, which is also where this "my company owns your company in this conference" mindset comes from.

So yeah, oranges and apples.
I think the biggest issue is that most of these investment articles are quoting people who have very little interest or knowledge of the industry who are providing ways to drive up stock price that probably won't or can't work.
 

jman2050

Member
ymmv said:
It's funny how Steve Jobs always gloated about the NUMBER of available apps on their mobile platform, and never about the quality.

Well yeah, I just said it. It's all a bullet point to them. They're not looking to create a thriving video game ecosystem, they're looking for ways to get people to buy their $500 phones and tablets and mobile games are the hot topic at the moment.
 

KingJ2002

Member
I don't think Nintendo should stick it out with the 3DS... if anything... they should re-design the hardware and just drop the 3DS title from the name.

as far as the Wii U is concerned... Nintendo needs to fix the controller issues and get it working properly... it's a pretty big an intimidating thing compared to the Wiimote... so they will have to convince the family that it's the way to go.


Also... some key things nintendo needs to hit:

- Similar UI between console and mobile devices (like microsoft achieved with their Metro UI)
- Embracing online mobile gaming (wi-fi isnt enough... partner with mobile companies and allow people to play anywhere at anytime)
- More apps... netflix is a nice start... but people want more social features... especially if Nintendo would like this system to remain in the living room... i mean... imagine skype for Nintendo Mobile and Wii U... that would be big for them!)... create dev tools that companies small and large can leverage to make applications for their platform.... but also have a review board to keep fart apps out.


Nintendo is still a company look to for a quality product... and the 3DS is a powerful blow to the ego... but Nintendo can recover from this... they did it before with the 3DS and losing Mindshare with the GameCube.... they can do it again.
 

StevieP

Banned
SmokyDave said:
Why not compete with Sega's back catalogue at £1.49 - £2.49?

These 8/16-bit ROM's might well be worth much more to you, but I assure you they aren't to the mass market.

Sega's games play like shit on the iphone.
 
BurntPork said:
Nintendo just shot themselves in the foot.

I don't know how much the rest of you know about Japanese culture (I'm an expert), but honor and shame are huge parts of it. It's not like it is in America where you can become successful by being an asshole. If you screw someone over in Japan, you bring shame to yourself, and the only way to get rid of that shame is repentance.

What this means is the japanese public, after hearing about this, is not going to want to purchase 3DS, nor will they purchase any of Nintendo's stock. This is HUGE. You can laugh all you want, but Capcom has alienated an entire market with this move.

Nintendo, publicly apologize and cancel all hardcore games for 3DS or you can kiss your business goodbye.

Way to copypasta from the 3DS conference thread.
 

[Nintex]

Member
Nintendo has Japan locked now that's for sure but remember that games like Bravely Default and Monster Hunter have limited appeal outside Japan. Not to mention that some might not make it overseas at all.
 

mAcOdIn

Member
Duxxy3 said:
If the drop was for nintendo's disinterest in non-japanese markets i'd probably side with the investors, but it's not. It dropped because they are disappointed that nintendo isn't a third party developer for apple.


It's not going to happen. If investors really want that to happen they should just jump ship now. Yamauchi will burn that bitch to the ground before they get to that point.
It's not that at all. Well it sort of is but at the start it's that Nintendo's sales will not match the past, so the stock needs to go down as Nintendo will not be raking in as much cash as before. Now some vocally oppose that and want it to continue to go up while others have thankfully bailed. It's about making money not buying into a favorite company of yours just to be a part of it.

But that aside it's not just that Nintendo isn't releasing anything for iOS it's that Nintendo has no desire to counter it with anything competent of its own. This doesn't mean that they need to make their own phone but their DSi/eShop is total ass, it is not a competitor, it is not attracting the same amount of apps, the same amount of customers nor the same amount of attach rate amongst the users it does have. It's shit. it was shit on the Wii as Wiiware, it was shit on the DSi as DSiware and now it is shit on the 3DS. Nintendo is not executing.

Nor is Nintendo executing on cross platform interoperability. Windows Live has some features that work on their smartphone platform, PSN is fairly consistent between the PSP and the PS3 along with a usable PC option for the store along with an admittedly weak first foray but a foray nonetheless in bringing the Playstation brand to the phone, Nintendo has none of this. Again Nintendo is not executing.

Nintendo brought a lot of casuals to the table with the DS and Wii and where are the titles for them? Where's Brain Age and Wiisports? Again Nintendo is not executing.

The 3DS launched at a higher price point than all its predecessors and now the talk is that the Wii will also probably be more. Now Nintendo is taking a loss on every 3DS sold not to mention has came out with a ridiculous add-on within a year of it's life. Not learning from competitors' past mistakes and the original 3DS price point placed it above the casual market.

So take that into account and you have a situation where last generation Nintendo failed to secure the "core gamer" but got the casual gamer, now Nintendo wants to get the core gamer but is now seen to be abandoning the casual gamer. Problem with this is Nintendo never had the "core gamer" they had Nintendo fans. The Wii-U will likely again be the last choice for the console "core gamer," Nintendo was always all but guaranteed the Nintendo fan and now they're seemingly ditching the casual gamer. At that rate it is impossible for Nintendo to reach the height they were before let alone go further up.

Now if this were a single generation, eh, who cares right except the mobile market will continue to get eaten away by smartphones. Right now I can buy something on the Apple Appstore and play it on an iPhone, iPod and the Ipod. That's right, there's tons of apps that have a universal app for all the iDevices that you can play anywhere on any iDevice without rebuying. Many games on these platforms have cloud syncing as well! Same thing for Android. Apple has an excellent groundwork set up where people get trapped in by the amount of money they spent on their iOS devices. Nintendo could have that except they throw out their system and past each other generation to just resell the titles to you again at full price. If you have to lose your progress every generation what's keeping the casual with Nintendo? Nothing. Now Google's getting it set up too, laying the groundwork. Sony's got it set up on the PS3 and PSP and has started with phones.

So it's not just that Nintendo is under-performing against prior years it is that by all accounts they are going to under-perform every generation going forward. Their mobile share will no longer be a sacred cash cow that they can always rely on like in the past and they've been essentially third place amongst gamers since the N64. There will always be a handheld market so long as companies bother to keep it going but it will continue to shrink until it's a lot smaller than it is now, will that mobile market still be worth Nintendo releasing dedicated machines? Who knows. The console market will fare better but on that front can Nintendo actually compete with Sony and MS? Much like the smartphone market people are getting trapped by the amount of money and the friends they have on that platform. It's no longer just the games you bought at retail that you may give up when you buy a new system but the friends list, DLC, tons of digital only content, it's essentially an online identity you're throwing away now. And besides, gamers expect these to carry over to some degree with each system. Nintendo can't even enable shit like moving content from one Wii or 3DS to another yet while the competitors allow that and more, like moving it from one platform to another in Sony and Apple's case.

So the investors are stupid in what they want Nintendo to do for fast cash but they are right to say that Nintendo is not only under-performing now but under their current leadership with their current philosophy has no chance of ever being back where they were a year or two ago.
 
[Nintex] said:
Nintendo has Japan locked now that's for sure but remember that games like Bravely Default and Monster Hunter have limited appeal outside Japan. Not to mention that some might not make it overseas at all.


Bravely Default is going to kill in Europe and they won't have to wait too long before it's unified with America in its ideas.
 

Zee-Row

Banned
I don't understand even if all the casual gamers leave Nintendo having regular gamers buy your system isn't enough to maintain a business anymore?
 

RagnarokX

Member
I just love how journalists and investors can't remember the past. When Mario Kart 7 and Super Mario 3D Land hit 3DS it's gonna explode.
 

mAcOdIn

Member
Zee-Row said:
I don't understand even if all the casual gamers leave Nintendo having regular gamers buy your system isn't enough to maintain a business anymore?
Of course it is enough to run a business but think of all that money stockholders would lose if it went right back to GC/GBA levels.
 

_Xenon_

Banned
Instro said:
I think the biggest issue is that most of these investment articles are quoting people who have very little interest or knowledge of the industry who are providing ways to drive up stock price that probably won't or can't work.
To be honest you can't really tell that especially on this board where Wii and Kinect were dead in water before release and Microsoft should pull out of market after every year's E3.

But regardless you know what MH4 is or not, you can tell this time Nintendo definitely won't be as successful as they were back in the NDS era, and that's bad enough for share holders.
 

Diffense

Member
Cheech said:
"Nintendo succeeded by pulling in people who weren't gamers and their needs now are no longer being filled by Nintendo, they are happy playing games on their mobile phones."

Right on the money.

In another thread people were arguing minutiae, whipping out lists of games, and ignoring the major point being made.
The phenomenal successes of Nintendo's Wii and DS were not built on Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest and the people who buy them but Wii Fit, Wii Sports and Nintendogs.
NO first party game sold more on DS than Nintendogs not even POKEMON!

While Nintendogs+Cats is no bomba by ordinary standards observers are seeing much slower uptake than would be expected if Nintendo still had a captive audience.
(This is an entirely different sales characteristic from the usual successful Nintendo game franchise; the word 'fad' comes to mind.)
So business analysts are anticipating that the sucessors to Wii and DS may not be able to replicate the success of their predecessors and are getting wary of Nintendo -- as an investment.
It doesn't mean Nintendo is destined for insolvency but we're not in 2008 anymore.

So we see Nintendo digging in and fighting for the red ocean which makes Neogaf happy.
However, investors who observed the growth during the DS/Wii eras see something different.
 
3DS flop? What a drama queen. lol

Seriously though, I think Nintendo are pretty much a victim of their own success. Even if they flooded the 3DS now with 1$ casual games, there is little chance that the casuals would abandon their iPhones for it. The best Nintendo can try to do now is to get some of that Japanese PSP market for themselves. They will never again reach the kind of success they did with the DS and Wii. Not at least for another ten years, when there is another major market shift.

Becoming another third party developer for iOS would not really be a good idea. Nintendo's strength as a software developer comes from the fact that they make the hardware they develop for, and the quality of their games from the fact that their games really need to be good enough to sell the hardware.

They could make a handsome profit by relying on their franchises for a while, but I think ultimately Nintendo would suffer the same fate as Sega. But of course, short term profit seems to be the only thing investors seem to care about so...
 

Mudkips

Banned
Zee-Row said:
I don't understand even if all the casual gamers leave Nintendo having regular gamers buy your system isn't enough to maintain a business anymore?

Of course it is.

It's not enough to keep the attention of the media and the "investors" looking for infinite profits, though.

The 3DS has sold what, 4-5 million? It's first holiday season is yet to come, and it's a "flop"?
It's the fucking Nintendoooomed horse shit from the 90s all over again.
 

EvilMario

Will QA for food.
Zee-Row said:
I don't understand even if all the casual gamers leave Nintendo having regular gamers buy your system isn't enough to maintain a business anymore?

Investors had a taste of the success the Wii and DS offered for the last half decade. They don't want to go back to the 'profitable, but not spectacular' eras like the Gamecube / Game Boy Advance.

Investors are reading the dozen articles printed every week about how iOS is the future of gaming, and how doomed the rest of the market is. Even if the 3DS has a successful holiday season and Nintendo rebounds, investors still won't understand why Nintendo is not on iOS.

Reuters article (and countless others) are way too pre-mature. If sales stay low, and Mario Kart 7 (and Super Mario 3D Land.. and others) don't push the system this holiday season.. then all the articles about Nintendo's era ending will at least be backed by something other than Apple slurping.
 
Diffense said:
So we see Nintendo digging in and fighting for the red ocean which makes Neogaf happy.
However, investors who observed the growth during the DS/Wii eras see something different.

And to combat that they're asking Nintendo to go iOS.

It doesn't add up.
 

BurntPork

Banned
By the way

In Japan, 3DS sales leaped to more than 200,000 units in the week of the price cut, but swiftly fell back to about 55,000 units, according to research firm Enterbrain.

How does a financial site have no idea how price cuts work? The price cut failed because it didn't stay at the obviously inflated 200k? Does the iPhone sell the numbers it sold on launch day every day?

I can't wait until January. "In Japan, the troubled 3DS sold over 1 million units in December but fell to a mere 250k in January."
 

dream

Member
effingvic said:
nintendo should make the wiiu with an actual tablet and have their version of an app store with non gaming apps. the wii channels were a good start but make it available to other developers as well.

that will shut up the investors.
Not really -- they'd still need to sell the thing. Who would buy something like that over an iPad?
 

Orayn

Member
The Bookerman said:
I think the gaming industry is due for another crash. ala 1983.
No. If you think we can or should have another crash like that one, your understanding is sorely lacking.
 

muu

Member
Pretty obvious they're skewing the news to make their story. If they wanted to they could have easily put a positive spin by saying that sales stabilized at double the rate pre-price cuts.

I have no doubts that Iwata will ignore these short-term investors, though; unless you really wanted good profits for one quarter to dump some stock, you won't be diluting the value of characters that have as much name recognition as Ronald McDonald and the golden arches.

And besides, if these investors were right all the time we'd be talking in our very own Second Life islands. Anyone remember them now?

BurntPork said:
How does a financial site have no idea how price cuts work? The price cut failed because it didn't stay at the obviously inflated 200k? Does the iPhone sell the numbers it sold on launch day every day?

I can't wait until January. "In Japan, the troubled 3DS sold over 1 million units in December but fell to a mere 250k in January."
 
Nintendo Is Killing Itself

Nintendo is dying. Today the company attempted to wow gamers with an "extensive line-up that has probably never been seen before in the history of video games," announced company president Satoru Iwata, but the offerings failed to impress, Reuters's Isabel Reynolds reports. "Nintendo's attempt to rescue its failed 3DS handheld games gadget failed to dispel market gloom, triggering a 5 percent share slide and stoking deep worries for an iconic brand desperate to win back users."

Nintendo doesn't get that nobody wants Nintendo gaming systems anymore. The 3DS stinks.

http://news.yahoo.com/nintendo-killing-itself-164557665.html
 

Angelcurio

Member
mAcOdIn said:
So take that into account and you have a situation where last generation Nintendo failed to secure the "core gamer" but got the casual gamer, now Nintendo wants to get the core gamer but is now seen to be abandoning the casual gamer. Problem with this is Nintendo never had the "core gamer" they had Nintendo fans. The Wii-U will likely again be the last choice for the console "core gamer," Nintendo was always all but guaranteed the Nintendo fan and now they're seemingly ditching the casual gamer. At that rate it is impossible for Nintendo to reach the height they were before let alone go further up.

I think that this is a huge part of the problem. I dont't think that shareholders were actually expecting Nintendo to release games on the iphones or the likes, i think the problem is more in line with Nintendo not announcing the type of games that made both the DS and the Wii casual games platforms. While i personally don't enjoy those types of games, it's a fact that games like Nintendogs, Trauma Center, Brain Training and the like were games that actually atracted new people into gaming, and were enjoyed by a much bigger crowd than the clasic hardcore or core gamers.
 

BorkBork

The Legend of BorkBork: BorkBorkity Borking
I'm going to bookmark this particular gloom and doom thread to revisit in January, after a Monster Hunter/Mario Land/Mario Kart filled holiday season.
 

dream

Member
BurntPork said:
By the way



How does a financial site have no idea how price cuts work? The price cut failed because it didn't stay at the obviously inflated 200k? Does the iPhone sell the numbers it sold on launch day every day?

I can't wait until January. "In Japan, the troubled 3DS sold over 1 million units in December but fell to a mere 250k in January."
I haven't seen any specific figured but judging by Apple's quarterly sales figures, the iPhone 4 no longer being supply constrained like it was at launch, and the fact that it's still the best selling phone on Verizon and AT&T in its 15th month on the market, I wouldn't be surprised if Apple is selling as many of them on an average day as they did on launch day.
 

Diffense

Member
Pureauthor said:
And to combat that they're asking Nintendo to go iOS.

It doesn't add up.

Because in their minds Nintendo needs to go where their market has gone.
Nintendo, OTOH views its exclusive software as key to bolstering its own platforms and building its licensee business.
With the annoucements yesterday, Nintendo upped the ante within it own philosophical boundaries but some investors want a paradigm shift.
I don't think it's happening any time soon and I'm not convinced it's the right move anyway.
 

BurntPork

Banned
east of eastside said:
What+the+fuck+am+I+reading.jpg


dream said:
I haven't seen any specific figured but judging by Apple's quarterly sales figures, the iPhone 4 no longer being supply constrained like it was at launch, and the fact that it's still the best selling phone on Verizon and AT&T in its 15th month on the market, I wouldn't be surprised if Apple is selling as many of them on an average day as they did on launch day.
Wouldn't they be at, like, 100 million in that case?
 

EvilMario

Will QA for food.
Source: http://news.yahoo.com/nintendo-killing-itself-164557665.html

Nintendo is dying. Today the company attempted to wow gamers with an "extensive line-up that has probably never been seen before in the history of video games," announced company president Satoru Iwata, but the offerings failed to impress, Reuters's Isabel Reynolds reports. "Nintendo's attempt to rescue its failed 3DS handheld games gadget failed to dispel market gloom, triggering a 5 percent share slide and stoking deep worries for an iconic brand desperate to win back users." Nintendo's not just some one-hit wunderkind to come out of the digital revolution. For many decades the company has popped out gaming and console hits alike. But things are different now; gaming has changed. Its gone mobile and Nintendo refuses to jump on that. And its reluctance to evolve is suicidal.

Nintendo doesn't get that nobody wants Nintendo gaming systems anymore. The 3DS stinks. From NES to N64 to the Gameboy to Wii, Nintendo has produced gaming systems that people want to play. Not many want to touch the 3DS. Sales are way down, reports The Wall Street Journal's Juro Osawa. This might have something to do with a general lack of support for 3D tech, argues The Guardian's Charles Arthur. "It may also signal that 3D technologies --which were held up at the start of 2010 as a new way to encourage people to buy new laptops, TVs and consoles--are not grabbing the attention of buyers in the way that hardware makers had hoped." But, more likely, it's a result of Nintendo's bad timing, explains Osawa. "An attempt to replicate the great success of its predecessor, the DS, released in 2004, the 3DS hit the market at a time when smartphones such as Apple Inc.'s iPhone are rapidly emerging as videogame platforms." Gamers prefer playing on their iPhones, iPads, or laptops. And Nintendo's not adapting, as Reynolds explains. "Nintendo has been criticized for sticking rigidly to its own hardware, meaning it has no access to the new generation of mobile devices." We bet you'd buy Super Mario for your iPad if you could.

Not only has Nintendo not segued onto hipper platforms, but the company hasn't developed the types of games people play now-a-days. "Analysts and investors dismissed the line-up as lackluster and largely irrelevant in the face of cheap or free games played on the likes of Apple's iPhone and iPad and Google-powered Android devices," continues Reynolds. The whole gaming scene has gotten less expensive and more social--Nintendo hasn't adapted. Like we said, the company hasn't opened itself up to smart phones nor has it developed games for the changing consumer. Think: More Farmville, less Mario.

Amazing article, clearly iOS is our future.
 
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