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Nintendo Switch #1 Selling Hardware in September. Nintendo Systems = 2/3 Total sales.

Celine

Member
Oct 4, 2009
12,673
194
995
It's consolidating their Handheld and console audiences under one roof. That's as red ocean as you can get. They consolidating not branching out.
Not true.
Switch goal is targeting people that have little time to play games due to a busy schedule (which means in Ads you we'll see a bunch of young adults and above).
This is achieved through the versatility offered by a modular design.
Nintendo guessed that a subset of the audience who have little time are old gamers who now got a family and a full time job which find increasingly difficult to enjoy their hobby.
Retro/lapsed gamers were targeted from the beginning, it's evident by games like Bomberman, Street Fighter 2, Seiken Densetsu Collection, Puyo Puyo Tetris, Doom.
All iconic franchises from the '90s with a multiplayer component (the latter is important because Nintendo always pushed for local multiplayer but due to Switch versatility the chance to setup quickly local multiplayer sessions increase).

To understand Switch success one shouldn't ask "what it is" but "why" (its mission) and "how" (its execution).

Wii / DS success can't be explained simply citing the touch screen or the Wiimote because those alone wouldn't have worked.
Back in the early '00s Nintendo saw potential in the audience who had difficulty or were intimidated to play with traditional controls ("why") therefore they lowered the interface barrier by introducing as default control schems more immediate control interfaces and of course designing games around them ("how").

Chasing the Wii / DS audience (lower input barrier) is not feasible anymore for Nintendo today because that space is occupied by Smartphone gaming and Nintendo has no intention to compete directly with a market based on F2P or $0.99 because Nintendo is a premium videogame brand.
Thus Nintendo is going in the opposite direction, they are chasing the audience that are used to the standard controls (and that recognize Nintendo standard button as seen in the new company motto below) but offer the convenience to play a game session whenever and how one would like based on his life style.



If that were true they would not have made an effort and a big deal out of a late port of Skyrim, which is exactly the samey western-cinematic AAA game u speak of.
As I've written above, Nintendo goal with Switch is to set itself apart by offering convenience to play anywhere and anyhow one can/likes.
To prove this mantra Nintendo need to set apart the Switch from other gaming devices through the software output.
In particular Nintendo need to set apart Switch from ubiquitous devices like Smartphones that are in everybody pocket.
This is achieved by offering:
- Engrossing experiences like BotW and Skyrim that aren't well suited for Smartphones.
- Arcade-like experiences that need twitch reflex and physical controls to work properly.
- Local multiplayer experience (yes, ideally how Switch works not only could help how to maximize the play time in the daily schedule but also could facilitate to setup quick local multplayer sessions).
 

Cipherr

Member
Dec 15, 2007
28,080
1
1,025
Kansas City Missouri
I've learned to not trust what GAF says about availability. Back when the Wii was popular, someone mentioned that they worked at a WalMart ~10 miles from my house, in the electronics department and that, "they had pallets of Wiis they just couldn't get rid of." So I sent him a PM, offering him $20 if he could set one aside for me, and that I could be there in 15 minutes to pay for it.

He sent me back a long, strange PM about how he didn't hate Nintendo, he just "didn't like the direction they were going in."

I wish I hadn't cleared my inbox five years ago. lol

Daaaaaaamn. Dude got busted hard. You made him write a think piece on "Nintendos direction".

Hilarious.
 

geordiemp

Member
Sep 5, 2013
11,897
24,898
1,010
UK
If it sells well at second year then the goalpost will me moved to ”wait until the third year".We already went from dead from arrival -> wait until the second month-> it will collapse after MK8D-> wait until the honeymoon is over-> wait until summer-> it sure will collapse before Odyssey-> Destiny 2 will blah blah blah blah blah-> wait until the second year

Read what I said, carefully. I will take the console names out so it does not cloud your thinking..

You can only extrapolate / estimate a new products trajectory when it is not supply constrained and it is readily available in that market.

Only then can statistics and extrapolation be applied to future numbers. So you would need 3-4 months of non supply constrained stock in a market to be able to do any estimates logically (other than fanboy rambling either way).

That applies to all products in all markets.

Now, on to gaming - Sony can estimate yearly sales because its on shelves at 70 million and 4 years. MS can do the same but Xb1X clouds that.

Nintendo probably cant estimate their year 2 sales as its supply constrained still after 6 months, so nobdoy knows other than a guess based on emotions..
 

D.Lo

Member
Aug 20, 2006
9,836
1
1,320
Sydney Australia
I'm mainly referring to these terms in the context of play time and habbits. The way I personally see it in this case, casual gamers buy and play comparatively less games per year on average (I'm guessing one or two), and generally have less time and patience to play games, which is part of the reason mobile gaming became so huge. Hardcore gamers however typically buy many games per year, and are willing to put forth the time to commit to traditional home console games. The PS4 may target the hardcore gamer primarily, but there's no denying that it's also got a base with casual gamers, who likely bought it as primarily a cheap media/DVD/Blu-Ray player that plays the occasional game of FIFA or Destiny.

The Switch's purpose meanwhile, is to streamline console gaming for casual gamers. Making the experience less demanding and more simple for those who don't have the time or patience to sit in front of a TV for hours on end just to even enjoy the typically more demanding and time consuming console games. Of course, there's peripheries outside those goals as well. The Switch has enough chops to be considered a good supplement platform for the core gamer, while the PS4's popularity and media features make it a good choice for casual gamers too. But the primary mission statements of the two platforms couldn't be anymore different.
The Switch's purpose is no such thing. You seem to have decided it is casual and walked the concept backward to try and justify it.

Its purpose is to make gaming flexible to anyone, no matter how much they play. It's a convenient form factor, not a design for a specific demographic, it has nothing to do with if the games are 'demanding and time consuming'. It launched with Zelda, a game many have put over 100 hours into. It has fully featured controllers (more than 'fully' really) as a standard, unlike the Wii Remote's specific simplicity, which, along with the DS touchscreen, were Nintendo's only ever console designs specifically for 'casual' players.

Of course the ads have relatively casual 20-somethings in them, all fucking companies do that.
 

Bumhead

Banned
Nov 14, 2010
8,202
0
0
Not true.
Switch goal is targeting people that have little time to play games due to a busy schedule (which means in Ads you we'll see a bunch of young adults and above).
This is achieved through the versatility offered by a modular design.
Nintendo guessed that a subset of the audience who have little time are old gamers who now got a family and a full time job which find increasingly difficult to enjoy their hobby.
Retro/lapsed gamers were targeted from the beginning, it's evident by games like Bomberman, Street Fighter 2, Seiken Densetsu Collection, Puyo Puyo Tetris, Doom.
All iconic franchises from the '90s with a multiplayer component (the latter is important because Nintendo always pushed for local multiplayer but due to Switch versatility the chance to setup quickly local multiplayer sessions increase).

To understand Switch success one shouldn't ask "what it is" but "why" (its mission) and "how" (its execution).

Wii / DS success can't be explained simply citing the touch screen or the Wiimote because those alone wouldn't have worked.
Nintendo saw potential in the audience who had difficulty or were intimidated to play with traditional controls ("why") therefore they lowered the interface barrier by introducing as default control schems more immediate control interfaces and of course designing games around them ("how").

Chasing the Wii / DS audience (lower input barrier) is not feasible anymore for Nintendo today because that space is occupied by Smartphone gaming and Nintendo has no intention to compete directly with a market based on F2P or $0.99 because Nintendo is a premium videogame brand.
Thus Nintendo is going in the opposite direction, they are chasing the audience that are used to the standard controls (and that recognize Nintendo standard button as seen in the new company motto below) but offer the convenience to play a game session whenever and how one would like based on his life style.




As I've written above, Nintendo goal with Switch is to set itself apart by offering convenience to play anywhere and anyhow one can/likes.
To prove this mantra Nintendo need to set apart the Switch from other gaming devices.
In particular Nintendo need to set apart Switch from ubiquitous devices like Smartphones that are in everybody pocket.
This is achieved by offering:
- Engrossing experiences like BotW and Skyrim that aren't well suited for Smartphones.
- Arcade-like experiences that need twitch reflex and physical controls to work well.
- Local multiplayer experience (yes, ideally how Switch works not only could help how to maximize the play time in the daily schedule but also could facilitate to setup quick local multplayer sessions).

Very good post.

At the moment I'm 35 hours into Zelda, since buying the Switch 4 weeks ago. Just due to how my free time shakes down, to play a similar game on PS4 would take me literally months, and I would probably have got bored and dropped it as a result of such sporadic play, irrespective of quality.

Me and my girlfriend have also played about 20 hours of Mario Kart during the same period. We've played it almost every night. Other than a couple of hours of Overcooked she's never been bothered about touching games on either the Xbox or PS4.

I think the Switch is a marvellous little machine. The flexibility of its design is no accident and I think Nintendo are onto a real winner.
 

CaviarMeths

Member
Mar 20, 2015
7,428
1
0
Read what I said, carefully. I will take the console names out so it does not cloud your thinking..

You can only extrapolate / estimate a new products trajectory when it is not supply constrained and it is readily available in that market.

Only then can statistics and extrapolation be applied to future numbers.

That applies to all products in all markets.

No, on to gaming - Sony can estimate yearly sales because its on shelves at 70 million and 4 years. MS can do the same but Xb1X clouds that.

Nintendo probably cant estimate their year 2 sales as its supply constrained still after 6 months, so nobdoy knows.
How did you feel about the Switch's chances of success around the January presentation? Or shortly after launch? Same impartial approach?
 

Celine

Member
Oct 4, 2009
12,673
194
995
At the moment I'm 35 hours into Zelda, since buying the Switch 4 weeks ago. Just due to how my free time shakes down, to play a similar game on PS4 would take me literally months, and I would probably have got bored and dropped it as a result of such sporadic play, irrespective of quality.
How many time have I read on GAF people that have trouble to finish games because they lack time and it takes too long so they lose interest?
Plenty of time!
Well, Switch is a console thought for those GAFfers.
Regardless of gender, skin color or location the lack of time is common problem shared transversally in the world (or at least in the Countries Nintendo sell the Switch).


Me and my girlfriend have also played about 20 hours of Mario Kart during the same period.
Speaking of you and your girlfriend (well, not literally :)), Nintendo should keep pushing experiences like Snipperclips which strongly target local coop between two sex.
Humans have an innate need to share a good experience with his/her better half, therefore is a powerful concept (and very marketable).
 
Mar 6, 2017
167
0
0
I'm mainly referring to these terms in the context of play time and habbits. The way I personally see it in this case, casual gamers buy and play comparatively less games per year on average (I'm guessing one or two), and generally have less time and patience to play games, which is part of the reason mobile gaming became so huge. Hardcore gamers however typically buy many games per year, and are willing to put forth the time to commit to traditional home console games. The PS4 may target the hardcore gamer primarily, but there's no denying that it's also got a base with casual gamers, who likely bought it as primarily a cheap media/DVD/Blu-Ray player that plays the occasional game of FIFA or Destiny.

The Switch's purpose meanwhile, is to streamline console gaming for casual gamers. Making the experience less demanding and more simple for those who don't have the time or patience to sit in front of a TV for hours on end just to even enjoy the typically more demanding and time consuming console games. Of course, there's peripheries outside those goals as well. The Switch has enough chops to be considered a good supplement platform for the core gamer, while the PS4's popularity and media features make it a good choice for casual gamers too. But the primary mission statements of the two platforms couldn't be anymore different.

Launching a 300$ device running 60$ software would be a very poor way to go after mobile gamers. Nintendo do have their eyes on mobile gamers and I believe they will rake in billions from them over the coming years, but that would happen through mobile games.

Regarding the casual vs hardcore debate, I don't think we have any evidence that Switch owners are buying less games than PS4 owners. If anything Switch software is doing great so far.

If you look at the software Nintendo has lined up for Switch, they are clearly going after the core gamers. Xenoblade 2, Prime 4 and a mainline Fire Emblen aren't only hardcore but also somewhat niche games. Both BOTW and Oddysey aren't exactly dumbed down entries in their respective franchise.

All consoles offer stuff for casual and hardcore gamers. Nothing about the pricing, the content or the consumer behavior of owners suggests that the Switch is more casual than the PS4. I believe all such claims are based purely on interpretation and speculation.
 

geordiemp

Member
Sep 5, 2013
11,897
24,898
1,010
UK
How did you feel about the Switch's chances of success around the January presentation? Or shortly after launch? Same impartial approach?

My opinion at beginning :

Nothing of interest in UK (online coop gaming land).
Sell out in mobile land (Japan)

USA - when will we have 3 months of fully stocked data points I am sure analalysts will be writing articles of lifetime estimates. I dont have an opinion on US yet.

To get 3 months of non supply constrained data points can take 3 - 12 months in a market was my original opinion, it has not changed as its logical

After 6 months, its 2.8 million US, 1.8 million Japan, say 2 million WW, so getting on for 7 milion is my guess - so early days still.
 

ArtHands

Member
Oct 14, 2012
10,385
522
945
www.arthands-vr.com
I've learned to not trust what GAF says about availability. Back when the Wii was popular, someone mentioned that they worked at a WalMart ~10 miles from my house, in the electronics department and that, "they had pallets of Wiis they just couldn't get rid of." So I sent him a PM, offering him $20 if he could set one aside for me, and that I could be there in 15 minutes to pay for it.

He sent me back a long, strange PM about how he didn't hate Nintendo, he just "didn't like the direction they were going in."

I wish I hadn't cleared my inbox five years ago. lol

I have asked them to provide the address/photos when i saw those posts but needless to say they went total silence
 

Celine

Member
Oct 4, 2009
12,673
194
995
How did you feel about the Switch's chances of success around the January presentation? Or shortly after launch? Same impartial approach?
This is a PM exchange I had with another gaffer in late January 2017 (verbatim, only the snippets he quoted since I can't find the folder with the messages I sent):

EDIT:
Found the Sent folder:

IMO the most interesting aspect of Switch is that is a modular system (free form) that allow to customize your experience that adapt to everyone lifestyle, regardless of situations and region where you live in a seamless way (it takes a few seconds to "switch").
It's unimportant if one customer will buy Switch thinking to only use it like a home console or handheld (or tabletop).
If at a point the same consumer feel the need to "switch" (taking a shit while keep going with the game session or want the game in be displayed on a bigger screen compared to the handheld unit) they can do it effortlessly and quickly.

The concept of Switch is ambitious (and still unproven) in the same way DS or Wii were at the time of release.
If it is successful it will kill (replace) both the 3DS and WiiU heritage line.
I also expect the Switch to be expandable over time with new SKU (handheld only, console only) and new control inputs bundled with key games down the road.

I believe some core gamers on GAF will have trouble to understand Switch potential because they are trapped in established classification which Switch is set up to destroy in the attempt to serve the current dynamic lifestyle and strike gold (who knows if they will).
They look at what is shown on the screen (be it a TV or Switch own screen) instead to observe how Switch fruition is multifaced and dynamic.
Not just what screen you will look to but also how the player can manage the game session:
for example joycons can be use in a "free hand" configuration like the Wiimote+nunchuck combo (this is a subtle consideration but is a testament that Switch is trying to give the player as much liberty as possible) or for 2 multiplayer on the spot or can be substituted with custom new controllers.
You can set up play session everywhere: living room, bathroom, on a table in the garden with a friend, on a train while traveling.
For instance if I was Nintendo I would marketed the hell out of Snipperclips by showing an ad where a couple play its coop mode in a bed room through Switch tabletop mode.
I believe this kind of intimate experience which require a small screen to be shared with each a own set of controllers in an uncommon place for a console like the bed room of a married coupled cannot be matched as well by traditional consoles or mobiles/tablets and can sell the console (who doesn't want to share a fun experience with his better half?).

The launch software line up is also interesting, it's signaling that Nintendo want to return to "pick & play" experiences which were abundant on DS and Wii but not through casual games you can find on smartphones instead through "retro" arcade-like games that cannot fit well on mobiles because they lack buttons (Street Fighter 2, Sonic, Bomberman, Puyo Puyo Tetris).
Local multiplayer everywhere and at any time is also a priority (Puyo Puyo Tetris, SF2, Bomberman, the added PvP mode for Setsuna) and something that cannot be served as well by traditional console and smartphones (and even gaming handheld because you don't always have a friend with another system with him).
The other casual piece of software available at launch is also very interesting because is born to contradict one of the established truth about gaming: you need a screen!

Switch business plan is very interesting (similar to DS or Wii instead of 3DS and WiiU which were reactionary projects that hoped to coast on the previous success of DS and Wii).
After reading that thread where many gaffers missed the point about Switch being the successor of neither WiiU or 3DS I was almost tempted to open a thread about Switch business plan lol.
 

Zaru

Member
Oct 2, 2012
3,333
273
480
Didn't expect the Switch to do this well. But a successful console means loads of games which can only be good for me.
I'm not in a hurry to buy the console - only got a new 2DS XL and PS4 Pro this year - but unlike Wii and WiiU, I might actually buy this one down the road.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
Dec 17, 2011
16,590
0
570
But that doesn't indicate that they're targeting the PS4 or Xbox One audience. Nothing about the Switch, from it's design, to it's games, really sell that idea. The Switch targets casual gamers, that's what Nintendo has shown. It's a console designed for gamers who find traditional home console too demanding or intimidating.

They are targeting anyone that has owned a Nintendo console/handheld before and yes many XB1 and PS4 owners have done that as well as people that don't own those two consoles like pc and people that moved onto mobile. Red Ocean doesn't meant literally just mean PS4 and XB1 audience, not in the slightest.
 

Cepheus

Member
Feb 16, 2016
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twitter.com
This is great considering I initially only bought the Switch because I'm the token 'friend that buys the Nintendo systems so we don't have to' and also because I thought it was going to bomb and become a collector's item like the Dreamcast. Before the Switch came out people were seriously thinking that it might be Nintendo's last home console, me included.
 

TheMisterManGuy

Junior Member
Feb 15, 2016
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Middle of Nowhere
Launching a 300$ device running 60$ software would be a very poor way to go after mobile gamers. Nintendo do have their eyes on mobile gamers and I believe they will rake in billions from them over the coming years, but that would happen through mobile games.

You have to remember the Switch is billed as a home console, thus standards are different for Switch games than conventional mobile gaming. With Smartphones, yes many games are free, but a lot of them are often too simplistic and shallow to hold your attention for any long period of time. Which is why many of the most popular ones die out after only a few months. With the Switch, the games are a more premium price, but they are full fledged console games that are mobile friendly, rather than dinky apps on a phone. So I think people will recognize the distinction here and be willing to pay more premium $20-60 prices accordingly.

Regarding the casual vs hardcore debate, I don't think we have any evidence that Switch owners are buying less games than PS4 owners. If anything Switch software is doing great so far.

If you look at the software Nintendo has lined up for Switch, they are clearly going after the core gamers. Xenoblade 2, Prime 4 and a mainline Fire Emblen aren't only hardcore but also somewhat niche games. Both BOTW and Oddysey aren't exactly dumbed down entries in their respective franchise.

A truly successful console would have a wide variety of users playing it, that's what leads to good software attachment ratios. Generally speaking, Nintendo is casting as wide a net as possible with the Switch. But their main concern is offering casual gamers a new kind of console. As for first party. Xenoblade Chronicles 2, Metroid Prime 4, and the new Fire Emblem are certainly titles for hardcore Nintendo fans. But Breath of the Wild and Mario Oddyssey are aimed at a much wider audience.

True, they're not dumbed down games, but both take what are seemingly daunting console experiences, and simplifies them into more digestible chunks for newcomers. Breath of the Wild is a good example of this. Sure it's an intoxicating open world with a shit ton of things to do. But rather than give you an arbatrary list of tasks to complete in order to enjoy the game, BotW instead only asks you to do one thing, just explore. The world is so well designed, that there's always something rewarding to do, even if you only have 30 minnutes to spare. It's apparently caught on too, as BotW was successful enough among people who have never even played a Zelda game before.

All consoles offer stuff for casual and hardcore gamers. Nothing about the pricing, the content or the consumer behavior of owners suggests that the Switch is more casual than the PS4. I believe all such claims are based purely on interpretation and speculation.

True, a lot of this is based on my own interpretation, and I'm not trying to say all Switch owners are casual by default, like I said, a good console needs to appeal to a variety of demographics. But I feel there's plenty of evidence based on what Nintendo has said and done regarding the Switch to suggest that they're targeting primarily casual gamers.

The Switch's purpose is no such thing. You seem to have decided it is casual and walked the concept backward to try and justify it.

Its purpose is to make gaming flexible to anyone, no matter how much they play. It's a convenient form factor, not a design for a specific demographic, it has nothing to do with if the games are 'demanding and time consuming'. It launched with Zelda, a game many have put over 100 hours into. It has fully featured controllers (more than 'fully' really) as a standard, unlike the Wii Remote's specific simplicity, which, along with the DS touchscreen, were Nintendo's only ever console designs specifically for 'casual' players.

Of course the ads have relatively casual 20-somethings in them, all fucking companies do that.

Again, it's important to understand the difference between casuals and non-gamers. The Wii and DS were mainly aimed at non-gamers, as in the people who never touched a video game in their entire life. The Switch is aimed at people who play games, but don't have time to park their butt in front of a TV for hours to enjoy something. Yeah it launched with Breath of the Wild, a game that many put over 100 hours into, but it's also a game that can be digested in small chunks as well.
 

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
Sep 5, 2004
66,969
13
1,590
Arakeen
Man super mario world was always my favorite mario and it’s amazing how well it holds up today. Gameplay is a given but the graphics are gorgeous. Style up the wazoo. When I first got a snes back in the day I remember laughing out loud at how good and packed with content it was. Mario 64 was almost as astonishing but nothing quite reaches the level of smw imo.


Tbh I’m ready for a Switch pro. I need the menus to at least be in 4K. They look so bad on my TV 😩

Huh. Mine looks a little fuzzier than I’d like but not 480 source bad.
 

Renna Hazel

Member
Mar 15, 2017
849
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200
But that doesn't indicate that they're targeting the PS4 or Xbox One audience. Nothing about the Switch, from it's design, to it's games, really sell that idea. The Switch targets casual gamers, that's what Nintendo has shown. It's a console designed for gamers who find traditional home console too demanding or intimidating.

Not that I disagree about Switch targeting casual gamers, I think it's silly to assume to if you don't go after the same market as Sony and MS that you aren't targeting hardcore gamers.

All 3 companies target casual and dedicated game players. They all have comparable attach ratios which means the average consumer purchases about the same amount of games per console for all 3, plus or minus a game or two depending on the generation.
 

TheMisterManGuy

Junior Member
Feb 15, 2016
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Not that I disagree about Switch targeting casual gamers, I think it's silly to assume to if you don't go after the same market as Sony and MS that you aren't targeting hardcore gamers.

All 3 companies target casual and dedicated game players. They all have comparable attach ratios which means the average consumer purchases about the same amount of games per console for all 3, plus or minus a game or two depending on the generation.
Of course, these companies do take other demographics into consideration when developing these consoles, they don't want to be stuck with just one type of buyer. However, they all have a primary target they want to reach. The PS4 is mainly aimed at the mainstream core gamer, with some good media features and a few neat extras like Play Link designed specifically to entice more casual gamers too. The Switch is aimed mainly at casual gamers, but is also designed to be powerful and fully featured enough for core gamers to enjoy it as well. These companies aren't stupid, they know these consoles have to be versitile enough to reach a wide audience, they just go about it in different ways.
 

billyxci

13 year old console warrior. Put me on ignore.
Aug 3, 2014
13,814
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970
Tbh I'm ready for a Switch pro. I need the menus to at least be in 4K. They look so bad on my TV ��

shouldn't the switch be able to put out a 4K image of the menus? can't be that demanding surely?

once/if you get the menus in 4K you'll be back on here asking for games to be in 4K lol and you can forget about that right now. 4K gaming is a long long loooong time away from being on handheld. we're getting ~3 hours battery at 720p right now lol.
 

Renna Hazel

Member
Mar 15, 2017
849
5
200
Of course, these companies do take other demographics into consideration when developing these consoles, they don't want to be stuck with just one type of buyer. However, they all have a primary target they want to reach. The PS4 is mainly aimed at the mainstream core gamer, with some good media features and a few neat extras like Play Link designed specifically to entice more casual gamers too. The Switch is aimed mainly at casual gamers, but is also designed to be powerful and fully featured enough for core gamers to enjoy it as well. These companies aren't stupid, they know these consoles have to be versitile enough to reach a wide audience, they just go about it in different ways.

If you say so. You just seem to think that "hardcore" gamer = person that play PS4 or Xbox One. I disagree with that sentiment. Attach rates will give a clear answer here though.
 

TheMisterManGuy

Junior Member
Feb 15, 2016
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If you say so. You just seem to think that "hardcore" gamer = person that play PS4 or Xbox One. I disagree with that sentiment. Attach rates will give a clear answer here though.
Well typically, a hardcore gamer would at least have a PS4 in their console roster, but that's not to say they have to. I'm speaking largely in general terms, so I'm not claiming that "all hardcore gamers have these consoles and nothing else", but your average core gamer would typically have a PS4 and/or Xbox One.
 

Renna Hazel

Member
Mar 15, 2017
849
5
200
Well typically, a hardcore gamer would at least have a PS4 in their console roster, but that's not to say they have to. I'm speaking largely in general terms, so I'm not claiming that "all hardcore gamers have these consoles and nothing else", but your average core gamer would typically have a PS4 and/or Xbox One.

Yeah I think most hardcore gamers will have a PS4, Xbox One or a Nintendo console. Some may have a combination of them or all of them. I do think all 3 companies largely target the same market, some better than others.
 

//DEVIL//

Member
May 28, 2014
2,110
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610
Well. I am responsible for 2 consoles sales. one I bought at release date, the other I bought yesterday ( sold the controllers though along with the charger, the dock. kept the device only )

the only reason I did this because I want a console with a low firmware for hacking purpose. while the other I can enjoy games on it.

thank god both systems I have zero scratches / dead pixels / screen light leak

I was honestly debating by spending that money on a switch or a PS4 pro or xbox one X ( even though I said before the console is useless for me due to having a high end gaming pc, but sometimes hype makes me do weird things. ) but I decided to go with a second switch because once old models are gone, will be very hard and expensive to obtain one.
 

legend166

Member
Jan 31, 2007
19,429
0
0
Read what I said, carefully. I will take the console names out so it does not cloud your thinking..

You can only extrapolate / estimate a new products trajectory when it is not supply constrained and it is readily available in that market.

Only then can statistics and extrapolation be applied to future numbers. So you would need 3-4 months of non supply constrained stock in a market to be able to do any estimates logically (other than fanboy rambling either way).

That applies to all products in all markets.

Now, on to gaming - Sony can estimate yearly sales because its on shelves at 70 million and 4 years. MS can do the same but Xb1X clouds that.

Nintendo probably cant estimate their year 2 sales as its supply constrained still after 6 months, so nobdoy knows other than a guess based on emotions..

That really doesn't make much sense. Supply constraints make it difficult to estimate the true demand for a product, but we can still estimate the lower bound of sales. If the Switch sells 10 million in its first four quarters (which seems like a reasonable estimate at this stage), that's still a great data point to extrapolate with. Using your logic the Switch could have sold 20 million in its first year whilst being supply constrained and you could say "but we don't know if it's successful yet because it's supply constrained!"

If you look at past console performance, especially Nintendo, the only time they've ever experienced a decline from year 1 to 2 was with the Wii U, which was their worst selling console ever by a significant margin. Looking at other consoles, none of them peak in their first 12 months on the market. So that means we can use that 10 million figure as a baseline and work out how the Switch could sell if it followed a standard sales curve for a successful console. The thing to remember would be that it could be higher because of the supply constraints.
 

CrisKre

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Read what I said, carefully. I will take the console names out so it does not cloud your thinking..

You can only extrapolate / estimate a new products trajectory when it is not supply constrained and it is readily available in that market.

Only then can statistics and extrapolation be applied to future numbers. So you would need 3-4 months of non supply constrained stock in a market to be able to do any estimates logically (other than fanboy rambling either way).

That applies to all products in all markets.

Now, on to gaming - Sony can estimate yearly sales because its on shelves at 70 million and 4 years. MS can do the same but Xb1X clouds that.

Nintendo probably cant estimate their year 2 sales as its supply constrained still after 6 months, so nobdoy knows other than a guess based on emotions..


Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm sure these companies have more sofisticated sales tracking than that. Rate of sales, for example, can offer a more clear view of demand even in a situation of demand outpacing supply (seeing how fast shipments are sold is one way of extrapolating demand).

I'm sure a company like Nintendo has fairly robust market analysis and can make a fairly educated guess at this point in Switch s lifespan. Not perfect, of course, but also not as uncertain as I interpret your post to paint it! Good points otherwise.

I do think you are right that Nintendo's predictions at this point in time are less accurate than, say, PS4 predictions at this point in time, but the absolutely should be able to predict demand for 2018 (arbeit with a higher percentage of probable error).
 

Jon Carter

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*Read the article*. Wow.. Did he admitted and accepted that he was dead wrong in that article? Otherwise, we shouldn’t seriously talk about any of his comments.

No, he defends himself by saying people who make fun of him for the article forget what the situation was when the article was written.

It was written on October 22nd, 2011, so that’s bullshit since the price cut had happened and Monster Hunter 3G and 4 had been announced, and it’s also irrelevant because he talks about the future, so he’s supposed to take into account more than what the situation was at the time of writing anyway. The situation changes nothing to his claim that the Vita is “destined to sell better” than the 3DS and that the only thing the 3DS had going for it in its fight against the Vita are N64 ports, when there had only been two with no other announced, but plenty of big exclusives on the horizon. It’s a hilariously fanboyish article that should never have been published on a professional website and he forever forfeited his right to claim he would still know more about the industry than 95% of gaming journalists even after a long hiatus.
 
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As for first party. Xenoblade Chronicles 2, Metroid Prime 4, and the new Fire Emblem are certainly titles for hardcore Nintendo fans. But Breath of the Wild and Mario Oddyssey are aimed at a much wider audience.
Agreed, but the idea that either Breath of the Wild or Odyssey might appeal more to casual gamers than core gamers is still rather silly. Nintendo was not specifically targeting casual gamers with either title, as there’s little to no chance that either will be enjoyed more by those mobile game fans you’ve mentioned than by traditional gamers. It seems to me that most of the company’s biggest Switch titles so far are all aimed at core gamers, which certainly goes against the idea that the mobile gaming crowd is their main target audience. I don’t believe that those players secretly want hardcore games and only choose the popular F2P titles because they are limited on time either.
 

James Scott

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Not sure why Colin is relevant to this conversation (or at all, really)

He left the gaming industry to appeal to some lonely men with money to burn on patreon. Probably best to leave it at that.
Agreed, but the idea that either Breath of the Wild or Odyssey might appeal more to casual gamers than core gamers is still rather silly. Nintendo was not specifically targeting casual gamers with either title, as there's little to no chance that either will be enjoyed more by those mobile game fans you've mentioned than by traditional gamers. It seems to me that most of the company's biggest Switch titles so far are all aimed at core gamers, which certainly goes against the idea that the mobile gaming crowd is their main target audience. I don't believe that those players secretly want hardcore games and only choose the popular F2P titles because they are limited on time either.
Yeah, a game having a wide appeal doesn't make it a casual game in the same sense as wii sports and the like.
They're just good game that a lot of people are into.
 

AmFreak

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If you look at past console performance, especially Nintendo, the only time they've ever experienced a decline from year 1 to 2 was with the Wii U, which was their worst selling console ever by a significant margin. Looking at other consoles, none of them peak in their first 12 months on the market. So that means we can use that 10 million figure as a baseline and work out how the Switch could sell if it followed a standard sales curve for a successful console. The thing to remember would be that it could be higher because of the supply constraints.
Discount WiiU cause it doesn't fit into the picture.
Then use all the other consoles that only existed in part(s) of the overall market for a considerable amount of time in these 12 months as an example.

Nintendo consoles that had a simultaneous worldwide launch: WiiU, 3DS
Nintendo consoles that peaked in their first 12 months: WiiU, 3DS (these aren't even all)
Oops ...
 

The Jag

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Yeah I think most hardcore gamers will have a PS4, Xbox One or a Nintendo console. Some may have a combination of them or all of them. I do think all 3 companies largely target the same market, some better than others.

Yeah, that's me. I own all 3.

I'm a fan of video games, not companies.
 

DrGrus

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Well typically, a hardcore gamer would at least have a PS4 in their console roster, but that's not to say they have to. I'm speaking largely in general terms, so I'm not claiming that "all hardcore gamers have these consoles and nothing else", but your average core gamer would typically have a PS4 and/or Xbox One.

Depends on what the average core gamer is into. The only games I play is more or less Paradox grand strategy or 2D platformers. For me the need for a PS4 and/or a Xbox One is very small.

I do not know if I am a hardcore gamer. I certainly do not feel the need to buy the latest games all the time. I find myself enjoying the 8-bit and 16-bit era more. I do however have gaming as one of my main interest.
 

magnumpy

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I'm so excited for the nintendo switch! I can't wait to buy it used.

any game related anything loses most of its value within what, like after the first month? when it's ~$50 I'll buy one.
 

jts

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I'm so excited for the nintendo switch! I can't wait to buy it used.

any game related anything loses most of its value within what, like after the first month? when it's ~$50 I'll buy one.
You’ll be all sorted out by 2025. Will have an even better library by then tbh.
 

TheMisterManGuy

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Agreed, but the idea that either Breath of the Wild or Odyssey might appeal more to casual gamers than core gamers is still rather silly. Nintendo was not specifically targeting casual gamers with either title, as there’s little to no chance that either will be enjoyed more by those mobile game fans you’ve mentioned than by traditional gamers. It seems to me that most of the company’s biggest Switch titles so far are all aimed at core gamers, which certainly goes against the idea that the mobile gaming crowd is their main target audience. I don’t believe that those players secretly want hardcore games and only choose the popular F2P titles because they are limited on time either.

Breath of the Wild and Mario Odyssey appeal to core and casual gamers equally. But these games were designed to be accessible and enjoyable even in short bursts. Short play sessions are inherently casual friendly. I'm not saying that the Switch has no core gamer appeal, or that casuals like it more. I'm saying that the Switch was designed to make console gaming more accessible to those put off by it.
 

DrGrus

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Breath of the Wild and Mario Odyssey appeal to core and casual gamers equally. But these games were designed to be accessible and enjoyable even in short bursts. Short play sessions are inherently casual friendly. I'm not saying that the Switch has no core gamer appeal, or that casuals like it more. I'm saying that the Switch was designed to make console gaming more accessible to those put off by it.

Some of the hardest games out there is enjoyable in short bursts. What has time it take to play a game with casual or hardcore?

If time was the deciding factor tons of games would be inherent casual on all platforms.

EDIT. As an example, the original super Mario bros can be played extremely casual but also extremely hardcore.
 

The James

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Breath of the Wild and Mario Odyssey appeal to core and casual gamers equally. But these games were designed to be accessible and enjoyable even in short bursts. Short play sessions are inherently casual friendly. I'm not saying that the Switch has no core gamer appeal, or that casuals like it more. I'm saying that the Switch was designed to make console gaming more accessible to those put off by it.

I think the way you are using the term 'casual gamer' is different than how most would interpret it, and that is leading to some confusion.

If you are saying that Nintendo is trying to accommodate players who can't fit long play sessions into their lives, then it's hard to disagree with that. If you are suggesting that Nintendo are going for the Candy Crush crowd (what people understand casual gamers to be), then you couldn't be more wrong.
 

legend166

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Discount WiiU cause it doesn't fit into the picture.
Then use all the other consoles that only existed in part(s) of the overall market for a considerable amount of time in these 12 months as an example.

Nintendo consoles that had a simultaneous worldwide launch: WiiU, 3DS
Nintendo consoles that peaked in their first 12 months: WiiU, 3DS (these aren't even all)
Oops ...

The 3DS did not peak in its first 12 months.

I'm not discounting the Wii U because it doesn't fit the picture. I'm discounting it because it was obviously a completely massive flop after the first six months. It's got no relevance when we're talking about the sales patterns of relatively successful consoles, which is what the Switch appears to be.

Why are you excluding the Wii? It launched worldwide within what, 3 weeks?