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November 2010 NPD Predictions - Closes December 5th

D

donny2112

Member
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 5 p.m. EST on Sunday, December 5th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: October 31-November 27 (4 weeks, October was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: December 9th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Format:

[360]
[NDS]
[PS3]
[PSP]
[WII]

Code: 
Good              Bad
[NDS] 500K        [NDS] 500 thousand
[NDS] 500,000     [NDS] 500.000
[NDS] 500000      [NDS] - 500000


Potential hardware impacting events in November:
November
Kinect 360 - November 4
Mario 25th DSiXL - November 7
Mario 25th Red Wii - November 11
Gran Turismo 5 PS3 - November 24


October's Results - thanks to EviLore/Nirolak

EviLore said:
New! 01. NBA 2K11 (360, PS3, PS2, PSP, WII, PC) TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE - 1.15 Million (Double Last Year)
02. Fallout: New Vegas **(360, PS3, PC) BETHESDA SOFTWORKS - 1,117,000
New! 03. Medal of Honor **(360, PS3, PC) ELECTRONIC ARTS - Over 1 Million
04. Fable III **(360) MICROSOFT - 580K - Second highest individual SKU
05. Star Wars: The Force Unleashed II **(360, PS3, WII, PC, NDS) LUCASARTS
06. Halo: Reach **(360) MICROSOFT - 315K
07. Just Dance 2 (WII) UBISOFT - 286K
08. FIFA Soccer 11 (PS3, 360, WII, PS2, PSP, NDS, PC) ELECTRONIC ARTS
09. Madden NFL 11 (360, PS3, WII, PS2, PSP) ELECTRONIC ARTS
10. WWE Smackdown vs. Raw 2011 (PS3, 360, PS2, WII, PSP) THQ - 225K

**(includes CE, GOTY editions, bundles, etc. but not those bundled with hardware)

Nintendo DS - 342k (-25.3%)
Xbox 360 - 325k (+30.2%), is now the best selling console year to date, only console that's up year over year
PS3 - 250k (-22.0%)
New! Wii - 232k (-54.3%)
New! PSP - 75k (-57.0%)
Click to expand...
Oct-09 -> Nov-09 transition:

Code: 
      Oct-09  Nov-09   % change
360     250K    820K   +228%
NDS     458K   1700K   +271%
PS3     321K    710K   +121%
PSP     175K    294K   + 68%
WII     507K   1260K   +149%

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
T

Thunder Monkey

Banned
[360] 1,120,000
[NDS] 1,540,000
[PS3] 960,000
[PSP] 135,000
[WII] 1,005,000

First time to play the game in a bit and wanted to get in early.

I like this time of year.:D
 
G

Gadfly

While flying into a tree he exclaimed "Egad!"
Thunder Monkey said:
[360] 1,120,000
[NDS] 1,540,000
[PS3] 960,000
[PSP] 135,000
[WII] 1,005,000

First time to play the game in a bit and wanted to get in early.

I like this time of year.:D
Click to expand...
Wow.. what makes you think 360 and PS3 will see such a year over year jump?
 
D

donny2112

Member
[360] 900K
[NDS] 1500K
[PS3] 600K
[PSP] 205K
[WII] 1150K

WII - sold better than last year's Black Friday (by 50K), but probably entered lower. Figure the difference works out to about the same end result. 443% resulting increase over October gives a fair bit of pause, though. :lol Edit: Reduced to 1150K for a 395% increase over October. :lol
NDS - Lowest November sales since the DSLite was introduced. :0
360 - Best ever November sales for it.
PS3 - Price cut's looking a little long in the tooth nowadays. 2nd highest November, but down from last year.
PSP - About what PS2 did last year from a similar October.

By the way, the prediction thread archive is now filled out back to 2008. Working on the point results page on the website next ... :)
 
F

FrankT

Member
In-re Donny;

If anything now I would probably adjust my 360 number between 50-100k since it would seem at least MS didn't match the BF week of the Wii, but gonna stick with it anyhow as I know the month overall was strong. As for Wii still don't think it will match the 1260 it did last year even with the 50k better for BF week. I just see little way it kept up with what it did for the first three weeks last year with it in such decline before even with the extra 50k for BF week. Also when was the price cut last year? Last week in October? I really think all those $169 deals for BF hit the sweet spot. Otherwise, pretty fair on the others. PS3 is kind of the oddball, but I only have it slightly lower than last year based on it being lower the last two months YOY mainly due to the fact that it had the slim+price cut and Uncharted 2. Not sure the bundles were as great this year and GT5 I don't really know what kind of impact it had for the four days.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Jtyettis said:
Also when was the price cut last year? Last week in October?
Click to expand...

Last week of September.

If Wii had kept its October 2009 rate (already high from the immediate price cut at the end of September) for the first three weeks of November 2009 and then added BF 2009 week sales, November 2009 would've been 930K. It sold 1.26m, so there's got to be a ramp up in there somewhere for 2009. The same calculation for 2010 would put Wii at 774K in November. If the extra ramp up %-wise was the same in 2010 as 2009, it'd put Wii at ~1.05m for November. That's still a 353% increase over October's numbers. Therefore, the expectation in any event will probably be for a ridiculous (in historical terms) increase over October for Wii. May end up reducing the Wii number to the 1.05m later on, but will let it stew for a while first. :)
 
S

SteveSteve

Banned
[360] 1,100,000
[NDS] 1,500,000
[PS3] 650,000
[PSP] 180,000
[WII] 1,000,000

360 will continue to outpace the Wii for the remainder of the year.
 
Jonsoncao

Jonsoncao

Banned
donny2112 said:
[360] 900K
[NDS] 1500K
[PS3] 600K
[PSP] 205K
[WII] 1260K

WII - sold better than last year's Black Friday (by 50K), but probably entered lower. Figure the difference works out to about the same end result. 443% resulting increase over October gives a fair bit of pause, though. :lol
NDS - Lowest November sales since the DSLite was introduced. :0
360 - Best ever November sales for it.
PS3 - Price cut's looking a little long in the tooth nowadays. 2nd highest November, but down from last year.
PSP - About what PS2 did last year from a similar October.

By the way, the prediction thread archive is now filled out back to 2008. Working on the point results page on the website next ... :)
Click to expand...

just some anecdotal evidence from my grocery shopping on Sunday in Walmart n Target
DS: plenty of vanilla DSL but not the colored ones
Wii: plenty of Wii sitting on the shelf
PS3: plenty of PS3 move bundles
360: none in Walmart, one 250G in Target

I guess either, MS supply chain sux during last few days, or 360 was doing great but not Wii level great, we knew Nintendo managed to ship an insane number of Wii during last November n December

I guess I ll wait a few more days to carry out my prediction since this month the discrepancies between predictions should be huge, and chances are I could catch up with guys above me if I nailed the extrapolation correctly
 
S

SlipperySlope

Banned
Saiyar said:
600k Wii
900k DS

Nothing from Microsoft or Sony yet.
Click to expand...

I think that may be our biggest hint. If they had comparable/better hardware numbers, you'd think they would have released it in their Black Friday PR.
 
D

dofry

That's "Dr." dofry to you.
I will ask a stupid question that is asked before, but will NPD release numbers anymore? Or is there another way to get them?
 
K

Kenka

Member
dofry said:
I will ask a
stupid
question that is asked before, but will NPD release numbers anymore? Or is there another way to get them?
Click to expand...

It is a good question, are we assured to get further hardware numbers in the forthcoming months ? :(
 
R

Road

Member
Kenka said:
It is a good question, are we assured to get further hardware numbers in the forthcoming months ? :(
Click to expand...
We have already had 2 months since NPD stopped giving out numbers.

We're relying on news outlets, companies and analysts since then, and that's the current plan for the future.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Road said:
We have already had 2 months since NPD stopped giving out numbers.

We're relying on news outlets, companies and analysts since then, and that's the current plan for the future.
Click to expand...

Yep. We'll predict for what we can while we can. :)
 
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