The Faceless Master
Member
oh myNirolak said:
excitement in NPD again?
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November 2010 NPD Predictions - Closes December 5th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
excitement in NPD again?
Sho_Nuff82
Member
Given the press releases by all 3 companies the week after black friday, why do they even bother to wait for NPD to post positive sales results anymore? Its unlikely that NPDs first report will have numbers for anything outside of GT5, BLOps, and Assassins Creed.
Not sure if this has been posted yet, but here is the wedbush prediction for November...
Http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/8673029a-0235-11e0-aa40-00144feabdc0.html
Xbox 1.075m
Wii 975k
Ps3 650k
Http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/8673029a-0235-11e0-aa40-00144feabdc0.html
Xbox 1.075m
Wii 975k
Ps3 650k
A mere 15 posts back...jedimike said:
jamesinclair
Banned
jedimike said:
I think Wii will win.
The fact that MS and Sony didnt release black friday numbers is telling. I doubt they;re saving it for a surprise.
Gadfly said:
Still 6:30 is it not? 4 for the press I think;
jamesinclair said:
Could go either way. Kind of like last year when everyone assumed PS3 was ahead for Nov based on Black Friday week. Personally, I believe 360 had the better first three weeks and may have been very close to Wii numbers for BF week. So could be tight and I have them pretty much tied. The overall average has them at 17k difference. Either way should be fun. I also think it is very possible Greenberg had the numbers as of that posting (Tuesday night) as they have been known to have the numbers as early as Monday/Tuesday during the week. Not sure if NPD gives client numbers that early anymore.
Souldriver
Member
Ok, here's something strange.
Monday, the local (Belgian) free paper when you travel by train gave a report on November NPD results. They said that the 360 had sold either 1.1 or 1.3 million consoles and that sales were up something like 33%, while the PS3 had gone down in sales by 20% and the Wii by 23%, or something like that.
Eeeh, how's that possible? Did the newspaper get the whole thing completely wrong? Are the numbers out there already but gaf is not allowed to talk about it? ...
(!!! The numbers are at the top of my memory. the exact numbers and percentages might be a bit different, but the overall order is correct.)
Monday, the local (Belgian) free paper when you travel by train gave a report on November NPD results. They said that the 360 had sold either 1.1 or 1.3 million consoles and that sales were up something like 33%, while the PS3 had gone down in sales by 20% and the Wii by 23%, or something like that.
Eeeh, how's that possible? Did the newspaper get the whole thing completely wrong? Are the numbers out there already but gaf is not allowed to talk about it? ...
(!!! The numbers are at the top of my memory. the exact numbers and percentages might be a bit different, but the overall order is correct.)
Souldriver said:
Sounds like numbers based on an analyst estimate. They maybe out for clients, but some random paper like that wouldn't have them yet.
Kind of like this;
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/8673029a-0235-11e0-aa40-00144feabdc0.html#axzz17ceZA0xS
Souldriver
Member
Exactly. I was really surprised by the article. I thought to myself "how did I miss the NPD November thread on gaf? Surely it would be on the top of the thread list for days!".Jtyettis said:
Pretty shitty journalism if they portray some analysts predictions as actual sales.
The Dutch Slayer
Member
spits or metro?Souldriver said:
And yes I'll bet its the annalist nr's.
Souldriver
Member
Metro. It was a little article at the bottom-corner of a page.The Dutch Slayer said:
Sho_Nuff82
Member
If Wikileaks had the numbers, they would publish them.
The Dutch Slayer
Member
Well noting about the nr's in the .be page of the metro :O
http://www.metrotime.be/digipapernl.html?pag=12&kdate=
http://www.metrotime.be/digipapernl.html?pag=12&kdate=
Cosmonaut X
Member
The figures just about fit - if the 360 was up 33% on last year's Nov figures, it would be around the 1.1 million figure. If so, Wii is at just shy of 1 million, and PS3 will be around 570k.
Agent Icebeezy
Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
Looks like 360 is going to beast this NPD
Cosmonaut X
Member
Hammer24 said:
Why? GT5 didn't hit until the very end of this reporting period, IIRC, and there's no indication from the only other territory we have figures for (Japan) that it's having a huge impact on hardware sales.
Souldriver
Member
http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=h...iPaper/nl/20101208/15/MVLMP-0-20101208-15.pdfThe Dutch Slayer said:
OR
http://www.metrotime.be/digipaperArticlenl.html?storyId=38455114
It was the newspaper of yesterday (odd that I thought it was earlier this week).
Edit: it used the Wedbush analysis:
- 360 sells 1.08 million consoles, up 31%
- DS down with 16%
- PS3 down 8%
- Wii down 23%
The Dutch Slayer
Member
Thanks for your post!Souldriver said:
Yeah that looks like the annalist stuff.
Cosmonaut X said:
Thats rather irrelevant. Huge franchises, especially when they are that long awaited, are very very frontloaded.
Every big game sells hardware. Thats proven time and time again. If these numbers (<600k) would indeed be true, that´d mean that even with the GT5 hw bump, PS3 would be on a steep decline - and in bad need of a price cut. I just don´t see this.
Cosmonaut X
Member
Hammer24 said:
...and has nothing to do with discussion of hardware.
That's far from "proven time and time again", but even if it were the case it's readily observable that some games have far more impact than others and in the case of a game like GT5, there's a chance that a huge part of the audience waiting for it already had a PS3 (thanks to Prologue and the length of time the console has been on the market, coupled with price drops and redesigns) and we're not going to see a significant bump.
Cosmonaut X said:
?? Maybe I got you wrong, but didn´t you say there were only a couple of days of GT5 sales counted?
Thats kinda like the we-wont-see-a-bump-as-every-fanboy-has-a-360-already discussion.
This generation is far from the saturation point. Big franchises tend to be the tipping point for purchase decisions. Either for PS2 owners finally making the jump to next gen (numbers suggest there are still lots of them), or for people rebuying a PS3 (switch to slim), or getting a triple as a secondary/tertiary console.
Smaller reporting periods, like f.i. in Japan, show this effect nicely. And every time. Over the course of a month things get muddier, as several different, and even longtime effects get mixed up.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
The PSP just sold 300k in a week thanks to Monster Hunter in Japan, the 360 sold nearly 500k during the launch of Reach.Dynoro said:
Truly big games will always move hardware. The question then becomes, is GT5 truly a big game in the states? Im guessing ~500k launch week, which is roughly half of the debut months of GoW3 and FF 13 on PS3. It will probably be close to 1million by January. I just see Black Ops and Assassin's Creed being too big to be knocked aside at this point in the generation.
Dynoro said:
These are effects that do not really differ between regions. The impression, that this wouldn´t be the case in the US anymore, is given by the monthlong NPD reporting period.
To discern the bumps now, you have to take out longterm effects (that you don´t have earlier in a generation) like general yoy decline/rise, price cuts, and nowadays important accessories (Wii+, Move, Kinect). Oh, and right now the holiday effects.
But for all these effects we have data, so you can still extrapolate the hw bump from huge sw franchises.
I have no idea. What stock exchange is still closing at that hour? Something in California.szaromir said:
Sorry, I really have no idea why they do it this way. Could be perfectly mundane like "that's how we've always done it, and we can't remember why it started at that time".
Cosmonaut X
Member
Hammer24 said:
Ah, I see what you mean now. Sorry about that!
Not really. All I'm saying is that for this particular title, there is a good chance - in my mind at least - that it will have a minimal effect on HW sales. I understand that big, hyped releases can have an effect on sales; I just disagree that they always do, or that the effect is always that significant.
In this particular case, I think any boost in HW due to GT5 is going to be minimal because:
- I don't believe the people waiting for GT5 are still to "jump in" - I think Prologue and the price drops, other releases and redesign will have pulled in most people already committed to buying GT5.
- It's falling right at the end of a reporting period, and I don't believe that anyone not already committed to buy GT5 is going to be snapping up a console ASAP just based on pre-release ads and word-of-mouth, so any hardware boost may well be missed in this NPD. It may show up in better-than-expected sales next month though.
BriareosGAF
Member
There are no important exchanges in Cali that I know of. The western most are the Chicago futures exchanges (some other minor midwest ones).jvm said:
Very excited for this NPD, hoping for some megaton hilarity.
Cosmonaut X said:
Well, I think they always do. They are just not as easy to see as earlier in a generation, as longterm effects are in play too.
There are so many probable scenarios why people buy consoles at big game releases, some I mentioned earlier. To make a camparison, look at PS2 data of very late in its life cycle. Big gaming franchises still produced hw bumps.
This might very well be the case, but as we are in a holiday reporting period it´ll be statistical white noise lost in different and larger longtime effects.