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November 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9th

Are Pachters predictions BF numbers or is that his prediction for November NPD?

November NPD. So, the four weeks beginning November 2nd and ending on November 29th (the day after Black Friday, NOT including Cyber Monday).

Whats his track record again? (Not being rhetorical, I'm seriously asking here)

Pachter's predictions track record in the past 5 months:


June 2014:

PS4 - Pachter was 14K off
XB1 - Pachter was 47K off


July 2014:

PS4 - Pachter was 18K off
XB1 - Pachter was 34K off


August 2014:

PS4 - Pachter was 15K off
XB1 - Pachter was 10K off


September 2014:

PS4 - Pachter was 288K off
XB1 - Pachter was 41K off


October 2014:

PS4 - Pachter was 43K off
XB1 - Pachter was 32K off


Remember not to take these numbers the wrong way. Pachter may have been doing reasonably well on predictions (outside of his crazy September 2014 PS4 prediction), but that doesn't mean his numbers are more reliable than an experienced GAFfer.
 
[PS4] 750k
[X1] 800k
[WiiU] 320k

I have little doubt Microsoft took November. As they should have with such ridiculous deals. Won't be a September type win though as it was for the Ps4.
 
Pachter's Predictions:

XB1: 750K
PS4: 600K
WIU: 300K


Please, GAF, be smart about this.

DO NOT make a new thread about his predictions. And if a site like VentureBeat picks it up for some stupid reason, DON'T bring it over to GAF. Threads about Pachter's predictions just lead to a whole bunch of nonsense that isn't conducive to proper discourse.

Pachter only channel checks a few stores and his predictions are NOT IN ANY WAY a reliable source. He predicts video game sales for FUN. His real day job is to help investors make sound investment decisions.

And yes, Pachter deserves every penny he gets for the real work that he does every day.

These are very close to mine, dunno if I should feel validated or worried.

Fake Edit: Actually I think I have the WiiU a fair bit higher.
 

Welfare

Member
Remember not to take these numbers the wrong way. Pachter may have been doing reasonably well on predictions (outside of his crazy September 2014 PS4 prediction), but that doesn't mean his numbers are more reliable than an experienced GAFfer.
But how close was he in September if you don't count the Destiny bundle :p
 

muleth

Banned
Pachter's Predictions:

XB1: 750K
PS4: 600K
WIU: 300K


Please, GAF, be smart about this.

DO NOT make a new thread about his predictions. And if a site like VentureBeat picks it up for some stupid reason, DON'T bring it over to GAF. Threads about Pachter's predictions just lead to a whole bunch of nonsense that isn't conducive to proper discourse.

Pachter only channel checks a few stores and his predictions are NOT IN ANY WAY a reliable source. He predicts video game console sales for FUN. His real day job is to help investors make sound investment decisions.

And yes, Pachter deserves every penny he gets for the real work that he does every day.

this, odd that the mods let that kind of crap go on for days before thread gets locked
 
Chartz actually made it in on time.

Chartz Predictions:

XB1 1439K
PS4 1057k
3DS 534k
WIU 381k
360 310k
PS3 156k

Well at least someone is being insanely optimistic?

That's like a 8 fold increase on XB1 numbers MOM, almost 4 fold on PS4 MOM. Seems like a terrible bet to me.
 

Welfare

Member
Well at least someone is being insanely optimistic?

That's like a 8 fold increase on XB1 numbers MOM, almost 4 fold on PS4 MOM. Seems like a terrible bet to me.
Dat $50 price drop for the entire month and getting a further $20-$50 price drop for BF.

I really would like to see both consoles to hit such high numbers.
 

le.phat

Member
By how many units must the bone outsell ps4 to actually stop the worldwide gap from widening in November? 80k? 100?
 
By how many units must the bone outsell ps4 to actually stop the worldwide gap from widening in November? 80k? 100?

We don't get GfK hardware numbers leaked on a regular basis, so we don't have the data to make that conclusion.

If you think NPD Ninjas are bad, GfK Ninjas can be ruthless!
 

GamerJM

Banned
Is it just me, or did the time between NPD releases just fly by this month?

I can't believe NPD releases in 3 days...

I feel the same way though that's likely just a personal issue for me. This year in general feels like it's gone by very quickly to me.
 
Do you know what's weird?

NPD hits in 3 days and given how X1 gutted the price massively and threw in a load of games, we know for absolutely certain it's outsold the PS4 for NA and Black Friday.

However, where oh where is MS with the PR on this? You'd think they'd have dropped that bomb right in the middle of the PSX event, but now it's practically over, they've kinda missed their cue on that one.

Are they just going to release their PR an hour before the numbers hit GAF? If that's the case, could it be that they only outsold PS4 by like 100-200k for the month?
 

Duxxy3

Member
By how many units must the bone outsell ps4 to actually stop the worldwide gap from widening in November? 80k? 100?

Would just need to outsell it worldwide for the month. XB1 is available in more than just three countries. Obviously the U.S. is making up for the majority of sales, but it is available worldwide.

If it was just the U.S. XB1 sales versus WW PS4 sales, there would likely be anywhere from a 500k to 1m gap.
 
Do you know what's weird?

NPD hits in 3 days and given how X1 gutted the price massively and threw in a load of games, we know for absolutely certain it's outsold the PS4 for NA and Black Friday.

However, where oh where is MS with the PR on this? You'd think they'd have dropped that bomb right in the middle of the PSX event, but now it's practically over, they've kinda missed their cue on that one.

Are they just going to release their PR an hour before the numbers hit GAF? If that's the case, could it be that they only outsold PS4 by like 100-200k for the month?

In the worst case scenario, they'll release a combined Black Friday PR on NPD day...with something general like this:

"Xbox One was the best-selling console in the month of November. With many thousands of sales on Black Friday, our fans have shown that the Xbox ecosystem is as strong as ever. We look forward to capitalising on our momentum in 2015!"


This would be the best way of spinning underwhelming results...like if Microsoft only sold 700K (which must be disappointing relative to MS expectations).

But the problem with that is GAF won't get any numbers...
 

freefornow

Gold Member
could it be that they only outsold PS4 by like 100-200k for the month?

It'll be a win, but for everything they put into it, it will not make that much of an inroad into the sales disparity. Maybe it's why they are so quiet (shocked how small the margin is).
Mind you, Sony not exactly screaming from the rooftops either.

3 days!!!
 
In the worst case scenario, they'll release a combined Black Friday PR on NPD day...with something general like this:

"Xbox One was the best-selling console in the month of November. With many thousands of sales on Black Friday, our fans have shown that the Xbox ecosystem is as strong as ever. We look forward to building on our momentum in 2015!"


This would be the best way of spinning underwhelming results...like if Microsoft only sold 700K (which must be disappointing relative to MS expectations).

But the problem with that is GAF won't get any numbers...

Yeah it's such a shame we won't know exactly how both did, but I wonder if any sites will give any sort of indication at all.

It'll be a win, but for everything they put into it, it will not make that much of an inroad into the sales disparity. Maybe it's why they are so quiet (shocked how small the margin is).
Mind you, Sony not exactly screaming from the rooftops either.

3 days!!!

Do Sony ever do that though? Up until now, apart from the milestone announcements, do Sony have big PR brags?
 
Yeah it's such a shame we won't know exactly how both did, but I wonder if any sites will give any sort of indication at all.



Do Sony ever do that though? Up until now, apart from the milestone announcements, do Sony have big PR brags?

Not really they do a small twitter message for NPD and that's it. They only do some PR when they reach a milestone like 5 and 10 million units sold etc.
 

jryi

Senior Analyst, Fanboy Drivel Research Partners LLC
I can't believe it's still 3 days until NPD releases.
Yeah, and how long after that until we get the actual numbers.

I'm just itching to see, what all those firesales did for Xbox. Especially in relation to PS4. I'd be happy with just one piechart showing the relative sales of XOne and PS4. (hint hint...)
 
Do you know what's weird?

NPD hits in 3 days and given how X1 gutted the price massively and threw in a load of games, we know for absolutely certain it's outsold the PS4 for NA and Black Friday.

However, where oh where is MS with the PR on this? You'd think they'd have dropped that bomb right in the middle of the PSX event, but now it's practically over, they've kinda missed their cue on that one.

Are they just going to release their PR an hour before the numbers hit GAF? If that's the case, could it be that they only outsold PS4 by like 100-200k for the month?

How do we know this for absolutely certain?
 
How do we know this for absolutely certain?

Doesn't it seem a bit odd how Microsoft is so silent and evasive about Black Friday?

After all, take this:


Microsoft 2008 Black Friday PR (released December 1st, 2008):

"Xbox 360 Registers Biggest Black Friday in Its History"

REDMOND, Wash. — Dec. 1, 2008 — Microsoft Corp.’s Xbox 360 video game and entertainment system kicked off the holidays with record-breaking console sales on one of the biggest shopping weekends of the year in the U.S. Retailers reported Xbox 360 console sales over the Black Friday weekend were on pace to beat previous years, outselling the PlayStation 3 by a three-to-one ratio and estimating a 25 percent increase from Xbox 360 Black Friday sales figures from 2007.

Strong game sales rounded out a historic Black Friday for Xbox 360, with record-paced software sales continuing for key Microsoft titles, such as “Gears of War 2,” “Fable II,” and “Lips.” Xbox 360 continues to have the highest game attach rate of any console at 8.1 games per console.

“We entered into the Black Friday sales period with cautious optimism, knowing that dollar for dollar, Xbox 360 offers more social entertainment value than any other console on the market,” said Don Mattrick, senior vice president of the Interactive Entertainment Business at Microsoft. “Record Black Friday sales in the U.S., coupled with our existing global install base of 25 million and an online community of more than 14 million Xbox LIVE members, have laid the groundwork for continued global sales momentum in 2009.”

Xbox 360 sales have also surged worldwide since the September price drop, outselling the PlayStation 3 week over week across Europe. Console sales in Europe are up as much as 400 percent, with sales nearly double year over year and reaching 7 million consoles sold this generation.

With a mass-market price point starting at $199.99 worldwide (estimated retail price) for Xbox 360 Arcade, a games lineup of more broad-appeal social titles than any other platform, and the recently launched New Xbox Experience, Xbox 360 is leading the industry and inviting everyone to play.

About Xbox 360

Xbox 360 is a premier video game and entertainment system. It is home to the best and broadest games plus more entertainment than any other device connected to the TV. The digital center of the living room, Xbox 360 blends unbeatable content, including personal pictures and music, with a unified online social network to create a limitless entertainment experience that can be shared at home or across the globe. More information can be found online at http://www.xbox.com/xbox360.

About Xbox LIVE

Xbox LIVE connects more than 14 million members across 26 countries to each other and the entertainment they love. Home of more entertainment from one remote than can be found from any device connected to the television, Xbox LIVE is also a unified online social network bringing friends together, no matter where they are — in the living room or across the world. More information and Xbox LIVE membership can be found online at http://www.xbox.com/en-us/live.

About Microsoft

Founded in 1975, Microsoft (Nasdaq “MSFT”) is the worldwide leader in software, services and solutions that help people and businesses realize their full potential.

* Requires Xbox LIVE Gold Membership and a Netflix unlimited subscription plan. More details about the Netflix service are available in the Netflix Terms of Use.

Note to editors: If you are interested in viewing additional information on Microsoft, please visit the Microsoft Web page at http://www.microsoft.com/presspass on Microsoft’s corporate information pages. Web links, telephone numbers and titles were correct at time of publication, but may since have changed. For additional assistance, journalists and analysts may contact Microsoft’s Rapid Response Team or other appropriate contacts listed at http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/contactpr.mspx.


Microsoft 2009 Black Friday PR (released November 30th, 2009):

Aaron Greenberg enthusiastically tweeted:

"Great #BlackFriday results just in, biggest sales week of the year for #Xbox360, more than 2xs previous week sales"


Microsoft 2010 Black Friday PR (released November 29th, 2010):

"Xbox 360 Surpasses 2.5 Million Kinect Sensors Sold"

REDMOND, Wash. — Nov. 29, 2010 — Microsoft Corp. today announced that strong demand over the Black Friday weekend has propelled retail sales of Kinect for Xbox 360 to more than 2.5 million units worldwide since it launched just 25 days ago.

“We are thrilled about the consumer response to Kinect, and are working hard with our retail and manufacturing partners to expedite production and shipments of Kinect to restock shelves as fast as possible to keep up with demand,” said Don Mattrick, president of the Interactive Entertainment Business at Microsoft. “With sales already exceeding two and a half million units in just 25 days, we are on pace to reach our forecast of 5 million units sold to consumers this holiday.”

“Kinect on Xbox 360 was a top performer at Target this weekend,” said Nik Nayar, vice president, merchandising, Target. “We expect Kinect will be a must-have gift this holiday season, so Target will continue to receive consistent shipments of Kinect throughout December. The hands-free, active gaming experience that Kinect offers is something that everyone in the family can enjoy.”

Kinect is now available at more than 60,000 retailers in 38 countries. It is the only controller-free games and entertainment system available that lets you control games, movies, music and television with gestures and your voice. Retailers, reviewers and analysts are calling it a must-have gift this holiday season.

More information on Xbox 360 and Kinect for Xbox 360 is available at http://www.xbox.com/Kinect or http://www.facebook.com/xbox.

About Xbox 360

Xbox 360 is a premier home entertainment and video game system. With the addition of Kinect, Xbox 360 will forever transform social gaming and entertainment with a whole new way to play — no controller required. Xbox 360 is also home to the best and broadest games as well as the largest on-demand library of music, standard- and high-definition movies, TV shows and digital games, all in one place. The entertainment center of the living room, Xbox 360 blends unbeatable content with a network of 25 million Xbox LIVE members to create a limitless entertainment experience that can be shared at home or across the globe. More information about Xbox 360 can be found online at http://www.xbox.com.

About Microsoft

Founded in 1975, Microsoft (Nasdaq “MSFT”) is the worldwide leader in software, services and solutions that help people and businesses realize their full potential.


Microsoft 2011 Black Friday PR (released November 29th, 2011):

"Xbox 360 Sells Nearly 1M Consoles in Biggest Week in Xbox History"

Entering the seventh year of its lifecycle, Xbox 360 just closed the biggest sales week in the history of the hit digital entertainment system, selling more than 960,000 consoles in the U.S. during the week of Black Friday.

Sales highlights in the U.S. during the week of Black Friday include:

· Xbox 360 sold more than 960,000 consoles in the U.S. alone, with more than 800,000 sold within a period of 24 hours.

· More than 750,000 Kinect for Xbox 360 sensors were sold in the U.S. – standalone and bundled.

Xbox 360 has a growing Kinect portfolio of more than 75 new Kinect for Xbox 360 titles – four times more than last holiday season. New titles include sequels to best sellers, including “Kinect Sports: Season Two” and “Dance Central 2.” Xbox 360 also released exclusive games this holiday season with titles like “Gears of War 3,” “Forza Motorsport 4” and “Halo: Combat Evolved Anniversary.” Below is a screenshot of “Kinect Sports: Season Two”:

In addition to games, on Dec. 6th, the next generation of TV entertainment will begin with the availability of a new Xbox 360 experience, and the launch of the first group of custom entertainment apps on Xbox LIVE. By the end of the year, nearly 40 world-leading TV and entertainment providers, including Comcast and HBO GO, will be available on Xbox LIVE.

Xbox 360 should deliver its eleventh straight month as the number one console in the US. Given the robust holiday portfolio and the new Xbox LIVE dashboard going live on Dec. 6th, Microsoft expects holiday momentum to continue, driving Xbox 360 to finish the year as the number one console in the U.S.


Microsoft 2012 Black Friday PR (released November 27th, 2012):

"Xbox 360 Black Friday Report"

I just checked the internal data for our Black Friday numbers* and wanted to let you know that over the Holiday weekend:

Xbox 360 sold more than 750,000 consoles in the U.S. alone –exceeding internal forecasts.
Xbox LIVE Gold Subscription sales increased more than 50 percent compared to last year’s Black Friday week.
We saw incredible activity on Xbox over the weekend. For example, on Sunday alone we had more than 14 million people on Xbox LIVE across the world, racking up more than 72 million hours of use in just one day.
Compared to 2011, we’ve seen a 43 percent increase in U.S. entertainment application hours logged on Xbox LIVE during the week of Black Friday.

* Sunday, Nov. 18 – Friday, Nov. 23



Microsoft 2013 Launch / Black Friday PR (released December 11th, 2013):

"Xbox One Sells More Than 2 Million Units in the First 18 days; Sold Out at Most Major Retailers"

Since its launch 18 days ago, Xbox One is proving to be the must-have gift this holiday season with more than 2 million consoles sold through to consumers worldwide, averaging over 111,111 units sold per day – a record-setting pace for Xbox. Millions of fans around the world who have purchased Xbox One have shown incredible engagement with the all-in-one games and entertainment system, spending over 83 million hours in games, TV, and apps on Xbox One since the system launched on Nov. 22.

“We continue to be humbled and overwhelmed by the positive response from our fans. We are thrilled to see sales of Xbox One on a record-setting pace, with over 2 million Xbox One consoles in homes around the world. Demand is exceeding supply in our 13 launch markets and Xbox One is sold out at most retailers. We’re also particularly excited to see consumers engaging in a wide range of games and entertainment experiences on the platform, with more than 1 million paid transactions* on Xbox Live to date,” said Yusuf Mehdi, corporate vice president of strategy and marketing, Xbox.

Xbox One is also proving to be the most popular online multiplayer community for gamers with over 39 million Xbox One achievements unlocked and 595 million total Gamerscore achieved.

“Demand for next generation gaming continues to be very strong,” said John Love, director of video games at Amazon. “At peak demand, customers were ordering the Xbox One console at over 1000 units per minute on Amazon.com.”

“The Xbox One entertainment system is one of our hottest selling products this holiday season,” said Bob Puzon, senior vice president of Merchandising at GameStop. “GameStop is experiencing high demand from our customers for this innovative console and we are working closely with Microsoft to receive more units to fulfill our customers’ holiday shopping lists.”

“Xbox One is one of the hottest Christmas gifts this holiday season and was a top seller this Black Friday,” said Chris Nagelson, vice president of entertainment for Walmart U.S. “We are refreshing our inventory as fast as we can to ensure customers can give and receive the new console for Christmas.”

The Xbox team is continuing to work hard to meet consumer demand, delivering consoles to retailers as fast as possible this holiday season. To help people find Xbox One, Major Nelson recently shared some tips for consumers this holiday season.

Xbox One brings the best games, live TV, Skype, sports, fitness, music and more to one system at the center of the living room, all available at the command of your voice. With 22 hotly anticipated games, including 10 exclusive titles, and entertainment apps, YouTube, Netflix, Hulu Plus, and many more – Xbox One fans have the best entertainment and games available on one console this holiday season.

* includes both digital games and video purchases


...Compared to this:


Microsoft 2014 Black Friday PR (released November 29th, 2014):

Aaron Greenberg was asked: "@aarongreenberg happy with the Black Friday sales numbers your seeing?"

He responded: "@OhImLaughin sales were incredible, grateful for all the support and new fans."


Aaron Greenberg didn't even brag about Xbox One sales. He only responded haphazardly when asked by someone via Twitter, and he used a vague "incredible" instead of anything concrete.
 

muleth

Banned
meh, the only thing that shows is how Microsoft respond. i remember how when Microsoft released pr before October npd, you guys were saying it was a preemptive strike against bad sale, now they don't do so, it means they failed.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
When you think about it, if no one asked Greenberg about BF sales casually, we wouldn't even have that tweet! A stark contrast compared to past few years!
 
Pachter sounds reasonable.
XboxOne will win november, but not by a wide margin.
But a win is a win and everyone will be happy, at least not crying.
 
When you think about it, if no one asked Greenberg about BF sales casually, we wouldn't even have that tweet! A stark contrast compared to past few years!
You wonder what he is doing all day long. Nelson also very silent.
Give us some PR, entertain us!
 

Xando

Member
[XB1] 830K
[PS4] 850K
[3DS] 470K
[WIU] 300K
[360] 250K
[PS3] 130K


I think Sony won because they had more stock(speculation). If MS had won BF they would've screamed it from every PR angle possible.
 
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