Orthogonal
Member
That would be a shockingly low month for current gen.
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November 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
That would be a shockingly low month for current gen.
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
Not really. It is only the second holiday after all.
Sounds about right if you think that the primary driver of sales is still the core market.
Personally I think its higher but looking at it from this perspective is not unreasonable.
Why would it be? It goes in line with the November sales of the Xbox 360 during the first half of the previous gen.
I don't think we should expect a repeat of last November's sales; This isn't a console launch year.
But hey, if I'm wrong then I would be happy -- more current gen consoles in people's homes.
Not as low as my predictions
. I should probably adjust, but I'm going full-on doom and gloom for this month with an outlandishly low prediction.Orthogonal
Member
If PS4 can push over 500k for september, the holidays should be nearly double I would expect.
The Xbox One bundles at $330 are like a full tier price drop that will appeal beyond the core gamer.
The Xbox One bundles at $330 are like a full tier price drop that will appeal beyond the core gamer.
It got over 500K thanks to the pre-order build up of the Destiny bundle.
panda-zebra
Member
[XB1] 999k
[PS4] 888k
[WIU] 444k
[3DS] 333k
[360] 222k
[PS3] 77k
[PS4] 888k
[WIU] 444k
[3DS] 333k
[360] 222k
[PS3] 77k
shinra-bansho
Member
There should be some BF PR at some point this week, I think, that should help inform predictions a bit.
Yeah, I find it increasingly hard to believe that PS4 comes out on top. Although, this is an unusually tricky month to predict.
Xbox dominated the month all the way until Black Friday, with their super aggressive pricing and bundles. They might also have concentrated a large majority of their hardware stock in the US to make sure they don't sell out. They are desperate for a PR victory, and I would be shocked, if they didn't break 1M easily.
On the other hand, Sony has been more or less sitting on their hands, and while the two bundles are actually OK, pricing does not reek of desperation in the same way as the One's. Still, I have a tingling feeling that the heavy marketing from Microsoft's part has made more consumers aware of the new gen consoles, which could also benefit Sony, and GTA on Black Friday for what is a relatively decent price... 900K-1M, maybe?
The funny thing is that if PS4 wins, this would be the first time this generation that Amazon tracking would be "wrong". On the other hand, this is also the first time that we have two bundles from one console in top-20 and one console bundle from the other guy in top-10. No definitive conclusions to be drawn from there.
So a 100-300K gap in Xbox's favor, both hovering at around million.
The deals for xbox one are super crazy, I would be shocked if they don't win November. I am just curious about the gap. If xbox one keeps winning in NA for the next few months, do you guys think sony will drop the price?
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
They would pack in a game before they dropped the price, kind of like Microsoft in March until June.
Pop-O-Matic
Banned
[PS4] 880K
[XB1] 820K
[3DS] 600K
[360] 300K
[WIU] 270K
[PS3] 250K
[WII] >20K
[PS2] >10K
[PSV] <10K
[XB1] 820K
[3DS] 600K
[360] 300K
[WIU] 270K
[PS3] 250K
[WII] >20K
[PS2] >10K
[PSV] <10K
[360] 246k
[3DS] 383k
[PS3] 199k
[PS4] 861k
[WIU] 357k
[XB1] 861k
MS PR said that XB1 tripled the last week of October in the first two weeks of November. Week 3 it didn't outsell PS4 (~75k/week in Oct) if I understand correctly what Abdiel wrote. Assuming 45k/week in October and BF amounting to 60% of November sales like it did in 2007 for the 360, XB1 would have sold 135k+135k+75k+516k.
I think it is too close to predict a winner between PS4 and XB1.
The other numbers are just TFMA.
[3DS] 383k
[PS3] 199k
[PS4] 861k
[WIU] 357k
[XB1] 861k
MS PR said that XB1 tripled the last week of October in the first two weeks of November. Week 3 it didn't outsell PS4 (~75k/week in Oct) if I understand correctly what Abdiel wrote. Assuming 45k/week in October and BF amounting to 60% of November sales like it did in 2007 for the 360, XB1 would have sold 135k+135k+75k+516k.
I think it is too close to predict a winner between PS4 and XB1.
The other numbers are just TFMA.
#3 is not necessarily more than #17 and #20 combined. In February, PS4 was at #3 vs. XB1 at #23 on Amazon, yet they were only 28k apart in NPD.
sacrificengineer
Member
[360] 115K
[3DS] 275K
[PS3] 100K
[PS4] 890K
[WIU] 260K
[XB1] 690K
[3DS] 275K
[PS3] 100K
[PS4] 890K
[WIU] 260K
[XB1] 690K
michaelius
Banned
Sample size seems ok but the problem is total lack of control over who submits data.
If people are sending it to get some kind of reward from company then demographic would be skewed towards most active price sensitive bargain hunters.
3DS 180k???
Yep. That latter part was an important note.
Jeez, there's just really no way to know before NPD release their numbers. I'm just dying to hear the results...
anonymous_abc
Member
[360] 70k
[3DS] 125k
[PS3] 70k
[PS4] 900k
[WIU] 250k
[XB1] 900k
[3DS] 125k
[PS3] 70k
[PS4] 900k
[WIU] 250k
[XB1] 900k
2014
It seems they were really accurate last year.
PS4 sold 1 million in Nov. 15 for NA. Guess: ~900k in the US, leaving ~240k for Nov 16-30 (16k per day in average).
XBO sold 1 million in Nov. 22 in NA, ~EU, AU, BR. Guess: ~600k in the US, leaving ~310k for Nov. 23~29 (51k per day in average).
It is within the realm of reality that that xbox one outsold the ps4 2:1 during black friday 2013 due to the stock situation.
Now the xbox one outselling the ps4 1.7:1 this year's black friday would be surprising to me, but who knows.
Not the whole month though.
The week when GTA V was released, following the Amazon rankings, it looks like that week might have been a PS4 week (was hard to tell due to borked monthly update on Amazon).
Edit: looking at those posts taking the laughably bad infoscout data for granted... If the PS4 either equals or beats the XB1 for the month... The meltdowns will be truly a sight to behold.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
From the retail side (or at least Best Buy going by last NPD thread) this was the case as well. Week 1 and 2 Xbox1, week 3 PS4, so maybe a 100K~ lead going into Black Friday for Xbox1. I am waiting for this week's PR statements and the retail report before calling anything. Too much anecdotal stuff going around to make solid numbers just yet...
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
To kinda put this Amazon stuff in perspective; like Aqua said they only account for maybe 6%, but that GTA5 bundle sold out in a manner of two days, while the ACU bundle (as just one example) is still in stock, and has been available for about the whole month.
So either MS sent a shitton of those, or Sony shipped the equivalent of what MS did the SO bundle. And you know that 2nd one is literally impossible; it's GTA5+TLOU we're talking here!
No, 507k (which is where I'm putting XBO's November number, w/ some wiggle room but no higher than 545k) would be 'shockingly low' for current gen, especially November's best-seller.
Press release came out on the 12th. The price cut wasn't until Nov.2. It was only 10 days of tracking. I'm waiting for Abdeil before I submit my predictions. Should also note that the GTA V PS4 bundle sold out on yesterday on Amazon. I still Microsoft edges one out but barely. Unless there is a major gap, then they can't really consider this a win. I wonder how much they are losing for every system sold.
theprodigy
Member
should also note Abdiel said PS4 drew even again early on November 8, since some of you are so intent on waiting
oh yes, how did this rumor spread....it's hasn't lead for any of the first 3 weeks on Amazon, so if you're using that as your evidence it's not going to work
oh yes, how did this rumor spread....it's hasn't lead for any of the first 3 weeks on Amazon, so if you're using that as your evidence it's not going to work
anexanhume
Member
Some really pessimistic numbers in this thread. I think both current gens will be over 700K and we'll have at least 1 one million seller.
Aquamarine
Member
People often compare the PS4 to the PS2.
The PS2 only managed 909K in its second November and only hit a >1 million November mark once in its entire 10-year lifespan.
I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that PS4 will hit >1 million this month.
If MS wins November only by 50k-100k difference, they lost November!
Aquamarine
Member
360 = Expecting -55% YOY
3DS = Expecting -39% YOY
PS3 = Expecting -68% YOY
PS4 = Expecting -29% YOY
WIU = Expecting +40% YOY
XB1 = Expecting -2% YOY.
[360] 291K
[3DS] 468K
[PS3] 144K
[PS4] 769K
[WIU] 312K
[XB1] 839K
Numbers are subject to change with additional retail information.
3DS = Expecting -39% YOY
PS3 = Expecting -68% YOY
PS4 = Expecting -29% YOY
WIU = Expecting +40% YOY
XB1 = Expecting -2% YOY.
[360] 291K
[3DS] 468K
[PS3] 144K
[PS4] 769K
[WIU] 312K
[XB1] 839K
Numbers are subject to change with additional retail information.
Why was it borked?
I just can't see it doing under a million with the way it's selling. That would be bad. Especially for MS who's practically giving away their system for free.
1.2mil should be easily doable.
Aquamarine
Member
1.2+ million is the kind of sales numbers that Kinect did at its absolute prime when the Xbox 360 was on fire.
Is Xbox One really at that same level?
Mikey Jr.
Member
I don't think Sony is worried about losing November and probably December.
Going against MS in this pricecut war would would be a losing battle. I mean, look at what drastic lengths MS is willing to go to.
Sony's thought process is that last gen, they got absolutely stomped in NA and UK by the 360, but they survived and came close to the 360 because of Europe and Japan and all the rest.
Current gen, Sony still has Europe and Japan on lock down, they don't have to worry about that. What Sony has going for them is that they are leading in NA and UK too. Even if they lose ground in NA and UK, they'll still have a healthy lead because they are so strong everywhere else.
Going against MS in this pricecut war would would be a losing battle. I mean, look at what drastic lengths MS is willing to go to.
Sony's thought process is that last gen, they got absolutely stomped in NA and UK by the 360, but they survived and came close to the 360 because of Europe and Japan and all the rest.
Current gen, Sony still has Europe and Japan on lock down, they don't have to worry about that. What Sony has going for them is that they are leading in NA and UK too. Even if they lose ground in NA and UK, they'll still have a healthy lead because they are so strong everywhere else.
But what about the market, isnt it larger than last generation? More people are playing games than before. That's my thinking for the numbers. More specifically for PS4.
This, but there is no way Microsoft lost
Huge price cuts and giving away a bunch of stuff free = appeals to the common shopper.
It's the cheaper console and the cheaper console always wins as long as it's not a wii u