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November 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9th

rokkerkory

rokkerkory

Member
I hope Wii U sells a boatload... great games on the system now.

Great sales hopefully means 3rd parties will pick up support.
 
O

On Demand

Banned
Bgamer90 said:
I remember Gamestop's website showing the Wii U above the Xbox One during a previous month; I remember seeing it but I don't remember how long the system stayed in that position. (I never put much weight into what GameStop's website showed due to that reason alone haha).



Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze doing better than Call of Duty on the 360? Ehhh...
Click to expand...

I doubt it was any long lenth of time. These rankings are not perfect obviously. That's why I use all 3 and watch if they're consistent with each other over the course of a month.
 
G

GifGafIsTheBestGaf

Member
Donny can we swap the tags around as long as we keep the quantities formats?

also thanks Donny and Aqua(and whoever else contributes really) for the work put into this even if we sometimes are ungrateful.
 
J

jhmtehgamr20xx

Banned
Ty4on said:
Isn't a tripling of sales in the weeks before BF quite rare? I know that they weren't a tripling of baseline sales, but still.
Click to expand...

Not really, I think. There was a Forbes article (yeah, Forbes, but not a contributor) that talked about it some. I'm sure Aqua or Cream or Swift could chime in on that point tho; YOY, MOM and deep numbers regarding this is not my thing.

That said, take into account it sold only 178k in October, the last week of that sales were depreciated b/c of the announcements, the PR is based on sales from that last week.

If anything I'd say tripling is rare in that it isn't big enough in their case. Not with that October number.
 
H

hawk2025

Member
Bgamer90 said:
I remember Gamestop's website showing the Wii U above the Xbox One during a previous month; I remember seeing it but I don't remember how long the system stayed in that position. (I never put much weight into what GameStop's website showed due to that reason alone haha).



Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze doing better than Call of Duty on the 360? Ehhh...
Click to expand...




The point isn't the ranking at a certain time, but across the whole month.

The relevant information is in the "movie", not the "snapshot", if you will.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
On Demand said:
I doubt it was any long lenth of time. These rankings are not perfect obviously. That's why I use all 3 and watch if they're consistent with each other over the course of a month.
Click to expand...

Unless I have the wrong settings, it looks like Gamestop's website is showing the Wii U Mario bundle above the AC Unity XB1 bundle.:
http://www.gamestop.com/browse?nav=28-xu0,134f-6

_________________

hawk2025 said:
The point isn't the ranking at a certain time, but across the whole month.

The relevant information is in the "movie", not the "snapshot", if you will.
Click to expand...

Yes, definitely. That's why I mentioned I didn't know how long it stayed in that position.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Dinjooh said:
This might be a stupid question, but i''m not American so I haven't a clue:

Is Amazon as relevant around Black Friday as it is the rest of the year? I had always imagined BF as being a go to the actual shop kind of thing, and not as much a order it online thing.

Can we look back at Amazon rankings for 2013/2012 and compare those with NPD rankings, or do they not go that far back?
Click to expand...

I would say...not really.

Traditional big-box retailers like to subsidise lots of holiday deals to attract people to their stores.

Amazon doesn't have that kind of draw.



Amazon November 2012:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2012-11/videogames/

#16 - Assassin's Creed III Liberation PlayStation Vita Wi-Fi Bundle
#20 - Xbox 360 4GB Console with Kinect Holiday Value
#33 - PS3 250 GB Black Friday 2012 Bundle
#46 - PS3 500 GB Assassin's Creed III Bundle
#64 - PlayStation Portable 3000 Core Pack System - Piano Black
#74 - Xbox 360 4GB with Kinect Holiday Value Bundle (Amazon exclusive Bonus Value)
#75 - Xbox 360 Limited Edition Halo 4 Bundle
#76 - Xbox 360 250GB Holiday Value Bundle
#79 - Xbox 360 250GB with Kinect Holiday Value Bundle
#80 - PS3 250GB Uncharted 3: Game of the Year Bundle


NPD November 2012:

360 - 1259K
PS3 - 762K
WIU - 425K
WII - 420K





Amazon November 2013:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2013-11/videogames

#29 - Xbox 360 E 250GB Holiday Value Bundle
#38 - PlayStation Vita - Walking Dead Bundle
#51 - Xbox One Console - Day One Edition
#78 - PlayStation 3 The Last of Us & Batman: Arkham Origins Bundle
#88 - Xbox 360 4GB

NPD November 2013::

PS4 - 1138K
XB1 - 909K
360 - 647K
PS3 - 425K
WIU - 223K
WII - 83K
 
F

Fox_Mulder

Rockefellers. Skull and Bones. Microsoft. Al Qaeda. A Cabal of Bankers. The melting point of steel. What do these things have in common? Wake up sheeple, the landfill wasn't even REAL!
[360] 300k
[3DS] 600k
[PS3] 140k
[PS4] 900k
[WIU] 550k
[XB1] 1300k

[PSV] 150K
 
H

hawk2025

Member
Bgamer90 said:
Unless I have the wrong settings, it looks like Gamestop's website is showing the Wii U Mario bundle above the AC Unity XB1 bundle.:
http://www.gamestop.com/browse?nav=28-xu0,134f-6

_________________



Yes, definitely. That's why I mentioned I didn't know how long it stayed in that position.
Click to expand...



Right, I didn't mean to go completely against your post, just sort of develop it a little more :p

Taking one or two snapshots and running with them can be very misleading.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Bgamer90 said:
I've never heard of Infoscout before....

"Xbox One beats PS4 on Black Friday, according to market-research firm":
http://venturebeat.com/2014/11/29/x...ack-friday-according-to-market-research-firm/
Click to expand...

Infoscout last Black Friday:

http://blog.infoscout.co/black-friday-console-war/

HVCOTbi.jpg


"Of over 102k shopping receipts tracked by InfoScout on Black Friday, slightly over 1,500 included purchases of a gaming console or console game. The data includes purchases at all major retailers carrying electronics including Walmart, Target, Best Buy, GameStop, RadioShack, and others. For more information related to our data and panel representation, visit our data page."
 
H

hawk2025

Member
Aquamarine said:
Infoscout last Black Friday:

http://blog.infoscout.co/black-friday-console-war/

HVCOTbi.jpg
Click to expand...



Oh wow.

They either need to work on their sampling and receipt scanning incentives, or perhaps the stock levels for the PS4 were indeed much larger at launch than at Black Friday relative to the Xbox One?



Loris146 said:
360 --> 30% share ar Wal-Mart? How is this possible?

Edit: lol is last year
Click to expand...

Regardless of being last year, the incentives are possibly low-powered for relatively higher incomes and are therefore oversampling the cheaper options.


On Demand said:
That's not real data I think. More like estimates.
Click to expand...



It's likely real data, as far as being from actual purchase receipts go.
 
R

Ricky_R

Member
Bgamer90 said:
I've never heard of Infoscout before....

"Xbox One beats PS4 on Black Friday, according to market-research firm":
http://venturebeat.com/2014/11/29/x...ack-friday-according-to-market-research-firm/
Click to expand...

To get this data, InfoScout uses two smartphone apps that reward consumers for uploading their purchases by taking pictures of their receipts. The intelligence firm tracks over 200,000 shoppers, and it gets more than 125,000 receipts on an average day. On Black Friday, consumers uploaded more than 182,000 receipts, which helped InfoScout declare Xbox One the Black Friday winner.
Click to expand...

Not sure if accurate. Xbone should take November either way.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Aquamarine said:
Infoscout last Black Friday:

http://blog.infoscout.co/black-friday-console-war/

HVCOTbi.jpg
Click to expand...

Very interesting. Last November was a big month as a whole (and not just on Black Friday) for the PS4 and Xbox One due to them launching obviously. That shows a big difference between the Xbox One and the PS4 there but maybe it was a preview of December 2013 due to those stats being so close to the start of the month (Xbox One was above PS4 that month too).

But yeah, like I said, I never heard of Infoscout before. Posted it here to get more info on them.
 
N

Nightengale

Member
Bgamer90 said:
Very interesting. Last November was a big month as a whole due to the new console launches. That's a big difference between the Xbox One and the PS4 there but maybe it was a preview of December due to those stats being so close to the start of the month?

But yeah, like I said, I never heard of Infoscout before. Posted it here to get more info on them.
Click to expand...

Even taking into account December, the gap between XB1:pS4 wasn't 50%.
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
travisbickle said:
So they were spot on last year?
Click to expand...

I am really poor with sarcasm, so I hope I do not offend, but in case your question is serious compare the above graph to these numbers to get an idea of their accuracy^^

With many thanks to Auqa^^

NPD November 2013::

PS4 - 1138K
XB1 - 909K
360 - 647K
PS3 - 425K
WIU - 223K
WII - 83K
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Nightengale said:
Even taking into account December, the gap between XB1:pS4 wasn't 50%.
Click to expand...

True but that chart is simply based on Black Friday. I'm wondering if late November was when PS4 supply began to not meet demand; Pretty much a poplar fact here that Xbox One beat PS4 in December due to stock.
 
G

gtj1092

Member
Bgamer90 said:
True but that chart is simply based on Black Friday. I'm wondering if late November was when PS4 supply began to not meet demand; Pretty much a poplar fact here that Xbox One beat PS4 in December due to stock.
Click to expand...

What's a popular fact? Ps4 outsold it in November and every month since December. I'd say it's just a fact.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
gtj1092 said:
What's a popular fact? Ps4 outsold it in November and every month since December. I'd say it's just a fact.
Click to expand...

Yeah. Never said otherwise. I was simply referring to December 2013.

And yeah, I said "popular" because it's brought up pretty often when someone mentions the fact that the Xbox One beat the PS4 for December 2013 NPD.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
[360] 221k
[3DS] 431k
[PS3] 113k
[PS4] 922k
[WIU] 492k
[XB1] 844k

This is mostly based on a mix of anecdotal evidence from friends throughout the month along with reports from 2 college roommates currently working in different retail chains saying that GTAV PS4 bundle stock was ~30% more than XB1 AC:U bundle for the month of November. So since both bundles sold out mostly everywhere I give a slight edge to PS4 this month. Granted I will be updating as more retailer impressions and PR come out. Honestly this month is a really tough one to call and I could see it go either way.
 
E

El-Pistolero

Member
RexNovis said:
[360] 221k
[3DS] 311k
[PS3] 113k
[PS4] 1322k
[WIU] 410k
[XB1] 1244k

This is mostly based on a mix of anecdotal evidence from friends throughout the month along with reports from college roommates currently working in retail chains saying that GTAV PS4 bundle stock was ~30% more than XB1 AC:U bundle for the month of November. So since both bundles sold out mostly everywhere I give a slight edge to PS4 this month. Granted I will be updating as more retailer impressions and PR come out. Honestly this month is a really tough one to call and I could see it go either way.
Click to expand...

I read from different GAF forum dwellers that piles upon piles of the LOU-GTA5 bundles were left untouched. Maybe the pace at which they have been disappearing pales in comparison to that of their rival's bundles?
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
El-Pistolero said:
I read from different GAF forum dwellers that piles upon piles of the LOU-GTA5 bundles were left untouched. Maybe the pace at which they have been disappearing pales in comparison to that of their rival's bundles?
Click to expand...

If you're talking about the retail musings thread I take that with copious grains of salt. I prefer to go off of impressions from college friends all across the country and nearly every one if them said both bundles were sold out everywhere except for Target for some reason. Apparently a handful of GTAV bundles are still hanging around at some Target stores. No idea why Target would be any different than BestBuy or WalMart but it would seem it is.
 
T

ThoughtsOfSpeaking

Banned
Does anyone know the largest gap between the PS3 and 360 in november just for historical context?

Was it 700k in 2011?

Edit: Found it. Ok.

I think im happy with my 150k difference prediction now.

Aquamarine said:
Nope. It was in 2010, where 360 sold 1374K and PS3 sold 530K (a 844K gap).


2010 > 2011 > 2012 > 2008 > 2006 > 2007 > 2013 > 2009
Click to expand...

Thank you.
 
K

kyser73

Member
RexNovis said:
If you're talking about the retail musings thread I take that with copious grains of salt. I prefer to go off of impressions from college friends all across the country and nearly every one if them said both bundles were sold out everywhere except for Target for some reason. Apparently a handful of GTAV bundles are still hanging around at some Target stores. No idea why Target would be any different than BestBuy or WalMart but it would seem it is.
Click to expand...

Didn't Target have the $50 store credit on top of the $329 console bundle? Could explain why there are still some PS4s left.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
Some Black Friday PR can put a light on sales for this month.

Can anyone say if 3DS 137k and PS3 43k for october is accurate? Will help my predictions.
 
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