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October 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 11th

L

lonedigitalwolf

Banned
Graphics Horse said:
Regarding november, aren't like half the sales from around Black Friday? I think it's best to wait and see what happens through the month, there's too many unknowns right now, we might even see stock shortages coming back.
Click to expand...

Sony coming trough with the killer and cheap BF bundles!!!... (I hope).
 
G

GamerJM

Banned
Guys, we don't have the numbers anymore. There was no embedded joke.



[360] 59k
[3DS] 111k
[PS3] 31k
[PS4] 407k
[WIU] 89k
[XB1] 229k
 
K

Kayant

Member
Speaking of Amazon - XB1 has done well this week -

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-10-27/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar

tVrzyMQ.png


Assassin's Creed Unity Bundle with kinect is at 48

If it can keep up that pace then XB1 surely will win November

Assuming Amazon is still right like they have been for each month so far

[360] 59k
[3DS] 110k
[PS3] 55k
[PS4] 237k
[WIU] 93k
[XB1] 198k
 
O

orochi91

Member
S

SwiftDeath

Member
orochi91 said:
Yea, PS4's NPD streak is over.

Oct./Nov./Dec. is going to the XB1.

There's too much value for customers to ignore.
Click to expand...

What new value offer in October is going to make XB1 sell the most in October?

The SO bundle? Which by all accounts had very low stock allocated to it?
 
O

orochi91

Member
SwiftDeath said:
What new value offer in October is going to make XB1 sell the most in October?

The SO bundle? Which by all accounts had very low stock allocated to it?
Click to expand...

It had low allocation? Nvm then, and that $50 price-cut doesn't apply to October it seems.

I'll make the amendment:

PS4's NPD streak is over.

November and December is going to the XB1.

There's too much value for customers to ignore.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
orochi91 said:
It had low allocation? Nvm then, and that $50 price-cut doesn't apply to October it seems.

I'll make the amendment:

PS4's NPD streak is over.

November and December is going to the XB1.

There's too much value for customers to ignore.
Click to expand...

That's far more reasonable a prediction I think

I don't like making definitive predictions unless I truly feel certain about it but I will say this

I give it a 75 | 25 split that MS wins November versus Sony winning November. Everything seems stacked for MS to claim November but after March and June, I can never quite tell what will happen

I feel mostly the same about December but I'll focus on November for now
 
A

Abdiel

Member
Best Buy retail check in:

Sony and the PS4 stayed strongly in the lead through October, though that isn't to say that the XB1 was doing poorly this month. Just... the trends continue to favor the PS4. We see some customers bringing in their friends to buy the same systems as they have, and since we've had more PS4's going out the door (both the original model and the white Destiny bundle), it just ends to work in that cycle, so to speak.

SO has done better than expected (at least the game itself), but we didn't really get much in the way of stock for the bundles, or of the preorders. I'll be interested to see how it does nation wide. And when I say better than expected... our expectations were pretty low. Maybe the positive reviews helped make it more visible, and some positive impressions from employees/customers help others give it a chance. Not setting the world afire, but it's doing okay.

For Prodigy: Bayonetta 2 released to virtually no fanfare, I'm sorry to say. Wii U continues to exist in a space with the Vita, where people do come in and get them, but they are always well informed as to what they are getting. it's never an 'impulse' purchase. More like people reach their tipping point for 'justification'.
 
N

Nintendojitsu

Banned
PS4 benefited largely from Destiny hype in September. That has most definitely cooled since then. Expect PS4 numbers to reflect that drop in enthusiasm for the game. Bayonetta 2 will improve Wii U numbers slightly higher in October. Not a large increase but a significant amount nonetheless.
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
Thanks Abdiel!

SO looks to be selling fine, which I didn't expect to happen even with the good reviews. Good thing for Insomniac.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
I'll post predictions later when I have more time to think about it.

But just a note in case it was missed in donny's OP it's a 4 week month and last month was a 5 week month.

I'm not sure why people are predicting unit increases with very few positively hardware impacting events, aside from the 3DS.

E.g. the 140k Wii U predicted above would require a weekly average increase of 100%... :/
 
3

3rdamention

Member
orochi91 said:
Yea, PS4's NPD streak is over.

Oct./Nov./Dec. is going to the XB1.

There's too much value for customers to ignore.
Click to expand...

I agree with you about November, for sure. December probably. But I completely disagree about October. Destiny bundle is still stocked and selling very well, Microsoft didn't have these aggressive promos in October, PS4 will win October...


I've said this before, but what I find interesting about sales these last 4 months of the year is, even with Microsoft winning November and probably December, will those 2 months do anything to cut into the lead/gap that Sony has/will create and extend with September and October sales.


Will it be Microsoft Xbox One November+ December sales difference> Sony PS4 September + October sales difference???

Or vice versa?? I'm not talking about Total sales, just the differences/ the amount one console outsold the other....
 
B

BlackBuzzard

Banned
3rdamention said:
I agree with you about November, for sure. December probably. But I completely disagree about October. Destiny bundle is still stocked and selling very well, Microsoft didn't have these aggressive promos in October, PS4 will win October...


I've said this before, but what I find interesting about sales these last 4 months of the year is, even with Microsoft winning November and probably December, will those 2 months do anything to cut into the lead/gap that Sony has/will create and extend with September and October sales.


Will it be Microsoft Xbox One November+ December > Sony PS4 September + October???

Or vice versa??
Click to expand...

November is going to depend on black friday more then anything else.
 
W

wachie

Member
[PS4] 285,000
[XB1] 219,000
[3DS] 108,000
[WIU] 69,000
[360] 57,000
[PS3] 33,000

Will probably amend later.
 
O

orochi91

Member
3rdamention said:
I agree with you about November, for sure. December probably. But I completely disagree about October. Destiny bundle is still stocked and selling very well, Microsoft didn't have these aggressive promos in October, PS4 will win October...
Click to expand...

El-Pistolero said:
You can forget about October...November is a different story though...
Click to expand...


I agree.

I made an amendment in the post after that one.

Initially, I had forgotten about the $50 promo starting in November and the low SO bundle allocation.
 
3

3rdamention

Member
wachie said:
You dont think the price drop to $349 + free games month long will not skew the other 29 days?
Click to expand...

I personally don't know. But it's Black Friday for a reason, the one day most stores operate in the black because of such huge sales. And those sales normally start now the day before or day of thanksgiving and run through Cyber Monday...For many families, that is the weekend many families get their holiday shopping started so that will make for a lot of console sales.


Black Friday will have a big impact on console sales, but whether it impacts the remaining days in the month we will probably never know that type of data...
 
3

3rdamention

Member
stryke said:
It feels like you're really underestimating holiday months. How is this even a question?
Click to expand...

Road said:
That will 100% happen.

It seems you don't know how big November and December are. Check some npd history when you have time: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=18

Wii U November + December > PS4 September + October?

Now, that's something that may or may not happen.
Click to expand...



I guess my point is, and I didn't explain myself well at all.....Both consoles will sell like crazy.... I'm talking about sale differences, not total sales...


PS4 outsold the Xbox One pretty well in September, and let's assume it outsells the One again in October. That would increase the PS4s sales gap over the One in North America....


Assuming the Xbox One outsells the PS4 in November and December...Will that difference be enough to cut into the lead that the PS4 extended in September and October? That's just what I find interesting....


If the Xbox One outsells the PS4 by 150,000 units total in November and December, will that be enough to cut into the gap the PS4 extended the previous 2 months? That would mean the Xbox One basically "won" the last 4 months of the year and can create great momentum heading into 2015...
 
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