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NPD HW Predictions for 2015 (entire year) - Closes Feb 3rd
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
TheCarrotKiller
Banned
[3DS] 3057k
[PS4] 5769k
[WIU] 1749k
[XB1] 5250k
[PS4] 5769k
[WIU] 1749k
[XB1] 5250k
Thunder Monkey
Banned
[3DS] 2600k
[PS4] 5650k
[WIU] 1375k
[XB1] 5300k
[PS4] 5650k
[WIU] 1375k
[XB1] 5300k
Final Verdict
Member
All I was trying to say was that if he was going to mention PS4's Batman AK marketing deal, then it would only be fair to mention X1's marketing deals, not that those deals would sell a brick ton of xbones.
And also I think that Witcher 3 could do better in the US than people are expecting if it gets good word of mouth. Just because it is a European game doesn't mean it can't have appeal in the US.
EDIT: Also interesting that you are predicting X1 over PS4 for NPD. I think it will be an *interesting* year for sure.
Some nice logic there, though you forgot a couple Xbox games like Quantum Break, and Screamride, plus the likely hood that Rare will have another game this year (they keep saying that this will be a "Big" year for rare).
Also, Xbox has a marketing partnership with Evolve, The Withcher 3, and The Division.
I think that they will both have a big year
I have serious doubts about Quantum Break releasing this year. Every single Remedy game in recent history has been delayed at least once prior to release and nothing shown so far indicated that the game is anywhere close to finished. Yes that includes the limited demo they displayed.
I can't see I can see Screamride driving any hardware sales. It is the very definition of a niche market title and its niche is far smaller than most.
I think Rare's recent track record has pretty much ruined most of the pedigree their name once had and that's if they even actually release a game this year. The fact that nothing has been shown and just incessantly hinted should give you pause. In this generation MS has a tendency to reveal titles incredibly early in development with substantial time until release (Scalebound, Crackdown etc) and yet we haven't seen a single trailer or teaser on whatever it is Rare is working on. Yea I wouldn't hold my breath on that.
The Marketing partnerships with MS while often successful in securing software sales on their platform seem to struggle to push hardware sales so far this gen. When you account for the fact that all of those titles are releasing day and date on the competitors hardware with most likely superior performance (confirmed with Witcher 3, assumed with Evolve and Division) due to a power gap in graphical performance it doesnt exactly provide a compelling argument to purchase on the platform. With lower performance being a trend the only marketing deals that might push serious hardware sales would be those that include timed exclusivity on release like Rise of the Tomb Raider. But I have my doubts as to how well that will perform as well given the platform preference shown by the most recent release in the series.
Given what we know now, this gonna be an uphill battle for MS this year and barring further purchased exclusivity deals or incredibly heavy discounting in comparison to the competition I don't see that changing. Much of XB1s future will hinge on consumer reaction to windows 10. If its a success no doubt that it will propel XB1 sales but given the absolute failure of Windows 8 I'm certainly not gonna take that bet.
[PS4] 5100k
[XB1] 4400k
[3DS] 2500K
[WIU] 1300K
i think that the wii u does slightly worse than 2014 pretty much all year. the big may-july run it had in 2014 will be gone, and splatoon won't be a good substitute. however, it should receive a price cut to $250 to keep sales steady yoy in the holidays, and zelda will be a last hurrah of sorts before the system goes into a freefall.
new 3ds should keep some interest in the platform this year, but the 3ds doesn't have any real hardware-driving software anymore (i'd argue they haven't had any since 2013 and pokemon x/y). just down slightly yoy as existing 3ds owners will probably re-up, and the standard new 3ds should actually be out before year's end.
for the paywall twins, i'm expecting that they generally do a little worse than last year until they get to the holidays. sony will actually have a holiday lineup this year, and microsoft might once again go for deep price cuts in the short term to drive interest with halo 5. i don't think there will be a permanent price cut until 2016 for the ps4. instead of simply cutting the price, i would expect sony to have a new model out that is also cheaper for them to manufacture. microsoft is probably preparing something similar for around then too. 2016 will probably be the biggest year for those platforms, and that's when i would expect some market-leader style numbers out of the ps4 on a monthly basis, finally.
[XB1] 4400k
[3DS] 2500K
[WIU] 1300K
i think that the wii u does slightly worse than 2014 pretty much all year. the big may-july run it had in 2014 will be gone, and splatoon won't be a good substitute. however, it should receive a price cut to $250 to keep sales steady yoy in the holidays, and zelda will be a last hurrah of sorts before the system goes into a freefall.
new 3ds should keep some interest in the platform this year, but the 3ds doesn't have any real hardware-driving software anymore (i'd argue they haven't had any since 2013 and pokemon x/y). just down slightly yoy as existing 3ds owners will probably re-up, and the standard new 3ds should actually be out before year's end.
for the paywall twins, i'm expecting that they generally do a little worse than last year until they get to the holidays. sony will actually have a holiday lineup this year, and microsoft might once again go for deep price cuts in the short term to drive interest with halo 5. i don't think there will be a permanent price cut until 2016 for the ps4. instead of simply cutting the price, i would expect sony to have a new model out that is also cheaper for them to manufacture. microsoft is probably preparing something similar for around then too. 2016 will probably be the biggest year for those platforms, and that's when i would expect some market-leader style numbers out of the ps4 on a monthly basis, finally.
michaelius
Banned
[PS4] 5200K
[XB1] 4200K
[3DS] 1900K
[WIU] 1200K
[XB1] 4200K
[3DS] 1900K
[WIU] 1200K
archnemesis
Member
[3DS] 2400k
[PS4] 5800k
[WIU] 1400k
[XB1] 4900k
[PS4] 5800k
[WIU] 1400k
[XB1] 4900k
AmaterasuOni
Banned
[PS4] 5400K
[XB1] 4600K
[3DS] 3400K
[WIU] 1200K
[360] 560K
[PS3] 440K
[XB1] 4600K
[3DS] 3400K
[WIU] 1200K
[360] 560K
[PS3] 440K
Final Verdict
Member
Well considering it was originally planned for 2014, I think that there is a good chance we will see it this year, but I do get why you don't think it will.(I give it 70% probably that it will launch this year.)
I agree, but you named some smaller games that won't move much HW in your original post such as RIME, Ratchet&Clank remake, and FF7 port.
So fair is fair.
MS anounces some games just 6 months or less from release like FH2, MCC and Dance Central Spotlight to name a few.
Also, on RARE...People know by now that they are not the old RARE, but they still make quality games.
KSR for example, was a fairly good game, it just wasn't the game that people wanted from them.
From what we have heard though, they are going back to making core games like they used too, so I think people will be excited to see what they come up with....they are still a very unique studio with a lot of potential.
MS has sold a lot of Xboxes with their parterships, but only when they have a bundle to go with the marketing. I think if they can do that with some of these games, then it will help them sell more Xboxes.
Also, when the average Joe in the US. Sees an add for a game like ACU (or whatever) it creates brand association between that game he wants and Xbox, and if they have a hardware bundle with it, that just makes it all the more enticing. And I would bet you that the average Joe doesn't know or care about the resolution of that game... he may have heard that PS4 has better graphics, but most people don't even know exactly what that means.
The whole generation will be an uphill battle for them, and I think they know that.
I am not sure though why you think W10 will affect Xbox sales though?
Also, Windows history shows that W10 will be a good OS that people will like (I call it the good-bad Windows cycle), and if you watch their reveal conference, then I think you will be more confident of that too.
I never heard MS ever say Quantum Break was coming in 2014. I heard fans say "oh they showed that awesome trailer at E3 it has to be coming this year." The first official comment from MS on release timeline (as far as I know) was 2015. SO in all likelihood if the game follows remedy tradition it will be delayed at least once. If I somehow missed a 2014 announcement from an official source by all means please show me and I will gladly admit my error.
If you reread my post I was talking about the breadth of titles available of PS4 not the titles with the most sales potential. Why? Because I think it is the sheer variety offered by their catalogue that will be its biggest selling point (outside of a price reduction) ths year. Whereas, when talking about the XB1 I was specifically talking about titles that could push sales for the system because they simply do not have that same breadth of exclusive content. I also did mention both Ori and Cuphead because those actually have some potential for pulling non trivial sales numbers. Screamride, however, does not considering how niche it is.
The titles that they announce shortly form release are either yearly releases in a seminal series (Forza) or small scale projects (indies, kinect titles, and remasters). In short its the titles we expect or they titles that have a shorter dev cycle. All of MSs big AAA anouncement seemed to be pushed out incredibly early in development. If rumors of Rare's game are to be believed and its a big AAA core franchise then I can see it being revealed this year but I seriously doubt a release announcement for 2015.
The bundles sold more on the strength of the deal itself and the packaged value of the games than the strength of the games. So far, the bundles that were successful for MS were either heavily discounted or offered some other hook for the consumer (white console, exclusive title, more than one packaged game, gift cards, live card etc). The consumers seem to indicate it is the price point more than the titles themselves that are pushing sales and I just don't see Evolve or Witcher 3 changing that perception of value for the consumer. The division is a wild card but Ubisoft games haven't exactly set an impressive precedent so far this gen so I am half expecting it to be downgraded into oblivion prior to release. But we shall see.
I think it will affect XB1 sales because they will be putting Windows 10 on XB1. If people like the integration the OS provides across all devices than it is sure to help push some systems. If the reaction is similar to Windows 8 where most of the market loathes using it then it is sure to hurt sales of the system as people will not want to use the OS to navigate as they view it as frustrating. Thus far what I have seen of Windows 10 is surely impressive but I am taking the presentation with a giant grain of salt as it seems too good to believe (outside of them creating their own locked game ecosystem in Xbox for windows). Just like hololens the proof will be in consumer reactions post release as MS has proven time and time again they are willing to distort the truth to illicit the reaction they want (early kinect demos, zune, surface multitasking which was severly limited and performance killing in early surface tablets). They've earned a reputation of a company to be incredibly skeptical of when revealing new products. Windows 10 is no different and I dont think many actually put stock in the whole good bad os cycle despite its holding true for recent years.
Graphics Horse
Member
[PS4] 5554K
[XB1] 4443K
[3DS] 2221K
[WIU] 1110K
edit:
Dammit Road!
I have edited to be distinct from yours.
[XB1] 4443K
[3DS] 2221K
[WIU] 1110K
edit:
Dammit Road!
I have edited to be distinct from yours.
BoxManLocke
Member
[PS4] 6300K
[XB1] 4800K
[3DS] 1900K
[WIU] 1300K
[XB1] 4800K
[3DS] 1900K
[WIU] 1300K
spatenfloot
Member
[3DS] 2111K
[PS4] 5110K
[WIU] 1430K
[XB1] 4360K
[PS4] 5110K
[WIU] 1430K
[XB1] 4360K
CosmicQueso
Member
[3DS] 1922K
[PS4] 5378K
[WIU] 1321K
[XB1] 5021K
[PS4] 5378K
[WIU] 1321K
[XB1] 5021K
~7.5 hours left to predict for the full year, and remember to predict for just January, too!
Aquamarine
Member
[PS4] 5123K
[XB1] 4612K
[3DS] 1449K
[WIU] 1214K
I'm predicting sharper declines for the 3DS in 2015 from what most people are predicting.
Basically, I'm betting on an extremely underwhelming New 3DS, continued cuts in 3DS advertising, and a distinct shift away from ailing businesses towards what's next.
I really do think that 2014 is Wii U's peak. We'll only see declines into 2015, and sharp declines into 2016 before an official discontinuation.
PS4 and XB1 are growth businesses.
[XB1] 4612K
[3DS] 1449K
[WIU] 1214K
I'm predicting sharper declines for the 3DS in 2015 from what most people are predicting.
Basically, I'm betting on an extremely underwhelming New 3DS, continued cuts in 3DS advertising, and a distinct shift away from ailing businesses towards what's next.
I really do think that 2014 is Wii U's peak. We'll only see declines into 2015, and sharp declines into 2016 before an official discontinuation.
PS4 and XB1 are growth businesses.
SmartWaffles
Member
[PS4] 6200K
[XB1] 5700K
[3DS] 2800K
[WIU] 1800K
PS4 and XB1 both doing great in 2014 with PS4 leading by 500K - 1M I think, 3DS was sadly in decline due to less games released and general incompetence by NoA, Wii U on the other hand had a great year critically and it reflects back at the sales number, albeit still not what people hopes.
[XB1] 5700K
[3DS] 2800K
[WIU] 1800K
PS4 and XB1 both doing great in 2014 with PS4 leading by 500K - 1M I think, 3DS was sadly in decline due to less games released and general incompetence by NoA, Wii U on the other hand had a great year critically and it reflects back at the sales number, albeit still not what people hopes.
Preach it.
SwiftDeath
Member
I wonder if 3DS results might be the most interesting for next year as amongst those I recognize as regular sales-agers, it appears the most varied
Duxxy3
Member
Full years are a bitch to project. Every company holds their secrets as close as possible.
3DS looks like it will have an awful year, but maybe they cut the price, or the second coming of brain age/nintendogs gets released. Maybe the n3DS bombs, maybe it's a hit.
The next gen twins look to run roughly even throughout the year, but there is a possibility for slim models or redesigns. Those always spike up sales. This is also the year when price drops happen.
The one consensus is the Wii U falling. Kart and Smash are the two big system sellers and they're already out. Zelda is a premiere game, but it usually doesn't sell anywhere near the two I mentioned.
perfectchaos007
Member
Glad I got here in time
[3DS] 3825K
[PS4] 4450K
[WIU] 1900K
[XB1] 4175K
[3DS] 3825K
[PS4] 4450K
[WIU] 1900K
[XB1] 4175K
CosmicQueso
Member
Jeez jvm & Aqua, this is the first time in a while I've felt like an optimist.
slavesnyder
Member
[PS4] 6000K
[XB1] 5000K
[3DS] 2500K
[WIU] 1500K
I have no idea, but still betting on Sony revealing some convincing stuff (price drop, morpheus, the "better graphics label", huge titles.
For Xbox it depends if they can keep the price advantage and bring out some big guns in time (and not rushed). They cannot afford to delay just one of their huge titles. A huge surprise moneyhat could change a lot, but I have not enough imagination for that.
All in all it will be an entertaining year for gaming and "meta-gaming".
[XB1] 5000K
[3DS] 2500K
[WIU] 1500K
I have no idea, but still betting on Sony revealing some convincing stuff (price drop, morpheus, the "better graphics label", huge titles.
For Xbox it depends if they can keep the price advantage and bring out some big guns in time (and not rushed). They cannot afford to delay just one of their huge titles. A huge surprise moneyhat could change a lot, but I have not enough imagination for that.
All in all it will be an entertaining year for gaming and "meta-gaming".
Aquamarine
Member
1 hour, 30 minutes left to predict
Aquamarine
Member
20 minutes until predictions close.
Last chance, people.
Last chance, people.
I'm prepared to be disappointed.
Aquamarine
Member
Predictions are now closed.
NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - 2015
1. PS4 - 5591K
2. XB1 - 5005K
3. 3DS - 2253K
4. WIU - 1420K
Going to use the below for prediction results for 2015. (Thanks, Welfare!)
Edit:
GAF_Agg was pretty dang good! (^o^)
1. PS4 - 5591K
2. XB1 - 5005K
3. 3DS - 2253K
4. WIU - 1420K
Going to use the below for prediction results for 2015. (Thanks, Welfare!)
Edit:
GAF_Agg was pretty dang good! (^o^)
perfectchaos007
Member
GAF Aggregate is da real MVP
NeoGAF Prediction Results - 2015
Units
1. archnemesis - 180,000
2. Paskil - 430,000
3. GAF_Agg - 460,700
4. astrogamer - 530,000
5. Welfare - 540,000
5. donny2112 - 540,000
7. slavesnyder - 560,000
8. Thunder Monkey - 665,000
9. kefka2030 - 674,000
10. Bruno MB - 705,000
11. NamikazeBurst - 730,000
12. theprodigy - 880,000
13. GifGafIsTheBestGaf - 884,000
14. Final Verdict - 890,000
15. BlackBuzzard - 922,000
16. Khaos_Knight - 923,000
17. ForsakenLotus - 930,000
18. KenPokesBarbie - 940,000
19. gtj1092 - 950,000
20. CosmicQueso - 960,000
20. RespectThySole - 960,000
20. prag16 - 960,000
23. jjonez18 - 980,000
24. anexanhume - 1,010,000
25. 1st Course - 1,040,000
26. skedar897 - 1,048,000
27. HalfBaked - 1,060,000
28. Xando - 1,080,000
29. ascii42 - 1,095,000
30. Road - 1,108,000
31. Chobel - 1,110,000
31. Darth Smurf X - 1,110,000
31. monegames - 1,110,000
34. Graphics Horse - 1,112,000
35. Prototype Viktor - 1,131,000
36. MasterSheen - 1,165,000
37. Zero-Crescent - 1,196,000
38. Tratorn - 1,205,000
39. RexNovis - 1,210,000
40. Kill3r7 - 1,235,000
41. SwiftDeath - 1,240,000
42. BoxManLocke - 1,260,000
43. AniHawk - 1,300,000
43. Javin98 - 1,300,000
45. Trust me, I'm a PhD - 1,360,000
46. TheCarrotKiller - 1,385,000
46. ferrasvansen - 1,385,000
48. Lexxus - 1,460,000
49. Dragonborn - 1,540,000
50. FliXFantatier - 1,580,000
50. Phoenician_Viking - 1,580,000
52. spatenfloot - 1,609,000
53. noobie - 1,630,000
54. Megadragon15 - 1,640,000
54. jvm - 1,640,000
56. Duxxy3 - 1,795,000
57. AmaterasuOni - 1,800,000
57. DBT85 - 1,800,000
59. jnWake - 1,815,000
60. TNH853 - 1,900,000
61. michaelius - 1,940,000
62. Aquamarine - 2,042,000
63. SmartWaffles - 2,060,000
64. Mr. RPG - 2,920,000
65. Untalkative_Bunny - 3,549,999
66. perfectchaos007 - 4,020,000
67. pager99 - 4,060,000
Congratulations, archnemesis!
Units
1. archnemesis - 180,000
2. Paskil - 430,000
3. GAF_Agg - 460,700
4. astrogamer - 530,000
5. Welfare - 540,000
5. donny2112 - 540,000
7. slavesnyder - 560,000
8. Thunder Monkey - 665,000
9. kefka2030 - 674,000
10. Bruno MB - 705,000
11. NamikazeBurst - 730,000
12. theprodigy - 880,000
13. GifGafIsTheBestGaf - 884,000
14. Final Verdict - 890,000
15. BlackBuzzard - 922,000
16. Khaos_Knight - 923,000
17. ForsakenLotus - 930,000
18. KenPokesBarbie - 940,000
19. gtj1092 - 950,000
20. CosmicQueso - 960,000
20. RespectThySole - 960,000
20. prag16 - 960,000
23. jjonez18 - 980,000
24. anexanhume - 1,010,000
25. 1st Course - 1,040,000
26. skedar897 - 1,048,000
27. HalfBaked - 1,060,000
28. Xando - 1,080,000
29. ascii42 - 1,095,000
30. Road - 1,108,000
31. Chobel - 1,110,000
31. Darth Smurf X - 1,110,000
31. monegames - 1,110,000
34. Graphics Horse - 1,112,000
35. Prototype Viktor - 1,131,000
36. MasterSheen - 1,165,000
37. Zero-Crescent - 1,196,000
38. Tratorn - 1,205,000
39. RexNovis - 1,210,000
40. Kill3r7 - 1,235,000
41. SwiftDeath - 1,240,000
42. BoxManLocke - 1,260,000
43. AniHawk - 1,300,000
43. Javin98 - 1,300,000
45. Trust me, I'm a PhD - 1,360,000
46. TheCarrotKiller - 1,385,000
46. ferrasvansen - 1,385,000
48. Lexxus - 1,460,000
49. Dragonborn - 1,540,000
50. FliXFantatier - 1,580,000
50. Phoenician_Viking - 1,580,000
52. spatenfloot - 1,609,000
53. noobie - 1,630,000
54. Megadragon15 - 1,640,000
54. jvm - 1,640,000
56. Duxxy3 - 1,795,000
57. AmaterasuOni - 1,800,000
57. DBT85 - 1,800,000
59. jnWake - 1,815,000
60. TNH853 - 1,900,000
61. michaelius - 1,940,000
62. Aquamarine - 2,042,000
63. SmartWaffles - 2,060,000
64. Mr. RPG - 2,920,000
65. Untalkative_Bunny - 3,549,999
66. perfectchaos007 - 4,020,000
67. pager99 - 4,060,000
Congratulations, archnemesis!
I expect it in the Fall to prop up continually dropping 3DS sales. That and the face plates would make a good marketing tool going into Christmas.If it gets pushed out to 2016, you can have laughed off its release three years running!
Was right on regular n3DS, but you got it going with that FFXV release laughter. Guess I'll have to put it down for 2016 now. It's a tradition!
CosmicQueso
Member
Top 20!!! Never been more proud.
1st Course
Member
fukkk I lowballed Ninty hard.
I don't understand why I had the 3DS so low when they were releasing a new hardware. N3DS totally went over my head.
I don't understand why I had the 3DS so low when they were releasing a new hardware. N3DS totally went over my head.
Darth Smurf X
Member
I tied with Chobel, the loser of bets??!?!?!
I'll show myself out...
I'll show myself out...
archnemesis
Member
Wow, I didn't expect that. Predicting a full year is so much harder than a single month. A lot of things can happen, especially with new systems.