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NPD Sales Results for February 2012 [Up 3: Kingdoms Of Amalur, Syndicate, Asura]

pieatorium

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I am most certainly hoping thats what he meant, I felt there was some ambiguity there so I clarified it. Then proceeded to join the discussion.


It is what he meant because there is only one way to read what he wrote.


But this is where you lose it. There's nothing wrong with adding clarification when he on the previous page mentioned a generational winner in context that addressed solely the US and not worldwide data, which is what is actually used to determine who wins a generation,

And when in the second post he very clearly mentions worldwide data, then goes on to again mention the winner of a generation,

And especially when I tagged the post where I included the clarification with this:

No he didn't he specifically mentioned the US in that post and only used US numbers, in a NPD thread about US sales. Just because he used the words winning the generation, which in the context of that post and this thread is regarding only the US.

Further explaining why I felt said clarification was necessary. You want to argue in circles about semantics on something thats really pointless. And you aren't really adding to the discussion at all. I mean, the more I think about this, I could have run into this thread and said something about japan and left, and you still would just have to live with it.

I clarified a statement he made that I felt could have been confusing the people arguing with him. If you don't feel it was necessary, fine, live with it. But I'm done with you, your circular nonsense and the off-topic discussion.
Thats fine you can call it semantics and circular nonsense I don't really care either way I only started this because you were an ass in your post to jetjevons about being a drive by poster when you were clearly reading to much into these posts and felt the world needed your clarification when noone was taking that post out of context but you.
 

guek

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I think so, they had a lot of trouble in 2011 just handling the Wii and the 3DS/DS and keeping the releases tight. I have no reason to believe they will be able to do any better with the WiiU/3DS and Wii on top of that. You have to really think about it, even if they want to keep the Wii alive, third parties arent going to. The Wii is no PS2, if they hope to keep the Wii selling, they would have to release games themselves for it.

Not going to happen. And with MS officially stating there will be no new Xbox hardware this year, I think that seals it for the 360 in the U.S. It will eventually pass the Wii. When the WiiU hits its going to murder the Wiis monthly sales. I don't see the Wii having much of a tail at all.

I'm inclined to agree. I don't think it's set in stone, but yes, you're probably right. Wii will likely hit $99 shortly after E3 and then breathe its last sputtering breaths before its younger sibling hits the scene.

I'm very curious though how Wii U is going to affect PS360 sales. A lot of people on this board will likely have knee jerk reactions to that question and say dumb crap like they're not going to be competing, wii u is current gen, blah blah blah or some horseshit.

I love video games, but I also really enjoy observing sales and trends in the industry :-D It's yet another reason I'm excited to see new hardware this year.

edit: as for the whole "winning the console war" mumbo jumbo, It's unlikely that 360 will ever surpass Wii worldwide, even if you subtract sales in Japan. But at the same time, 360 worldwide software sales could very well surpass wii's numbers (if it hasn't already. I thought last time I checked though, Wii was well ahead). It'll probably be more accurate to say the two will end in a tie at best for the 360.
 

Cipherr

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I'm inclined to agree. I don't think it's set in stone, but yes, you're probably right. Wii will likely hit $99 shortly after E3 and then breathe its last sputtering breaths before its younger sibling hits the scene.

I'm very curious though how Wii U is going to affect PS360 sales. A lot of people on this board will likely have knee jerk reactions to that question and say dumb crap like they're not going to be competing, wii u is current gen, blah blah blah or some horseshit.

I love video games, but I also really enjoy observing sales and trends in the industry :-D It's yet another reason I'm excited to see new hardware this year.


For the bolded, I think its going to depend heavily on just how hard Nintendo tries to go for the userbases of those platforms. They pushed awful hard into the PSP's territory with the DS. I mean, HARD, and it really seems to be working out for them so far. Prior to them pulling that off I wouldnt have ever assumed they had a chance at putting the bullseye on that demographic and succeeding.

But now Im a little curious as to whether or not they can manage to do it. I hate to say it because I dont like the franchise, but Call of Duty 2012. They probably have to get that if they want to effect the PS360 saleswise. If I dont see that at E3 for the WiiU, Ill be nearly content to say they wont have much effect of the HDtwins.
 

Christine

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I agree with this, but still, a victory is a victory. The others are right tbh, I dont see why we would draw some imaginary finish line just because the WiiU launches. If the 360 takes NA even after the WiiU launch, then they take it, period. I dont see why anyone would see it differently.

If the Xbox 360 sells more total units in America than the Wii in the long run, it will have sold more total units than the Wii in America in the long run, yes.

But it's almost a little insulting to the Xbox if you fail to understand that it didn't and doesn't need to. Microsoft's share gains in 3rd party revenue, their successes with subscription network services and downloadable products, and how these victories affect their extremely favorable strategic positioning for the next generation are far worthier subjects of discussion than the number of players sold through to customers.

Whether or not 360 passes Wii is an irrelevance next to the question of how well it can continue to retain 3rd party revenue vs. Wii U, the PS3, the shades of PS4 and its own successor, and to some extent, Vita. Or its retains or gains in migrating its network services to the next platform.

Microsoft won the generation, albeit perhaps not decisively. They may not have anticipated Nintendo's results, but they won every symmetric competition required by their business plan. The lines crossing is just something kind of cool that might happen, like seeing how high PS2 and DS totes could get long term.
 

Cipherr

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If the Xbox 360 sells more total units in America than the Wii in the long run, it will have sold more total units than the Wii in America in the long run, yes.

But it's almost a little insulting to the Xbox if you fail to understand that it didn't and doesn't need to. Microsoft's share gains in 3rd party revenue, their successes with subscription network services and downloadable products, and how these victories affect their extremely favorable strategic positioning for the next generation are far worthier subjects of discussion than the number of players sold through to customers.

Whether or not 360 passes Wii is an irrelevance next to the question of how well it can continue to retain 3rd party revenue vs. Wii U, the PS3, the shades of PS4 and its own successor, and to some extent, Vita.

Microsoft won the generation, albeit perhaps not decisively. They may not have anticipated Nintendo's results, but they won every symmetric competition required by their business plan. The lines crossing is just something kind of cool that might happen, like seeing how high PS2 and DS totes could get long term.

Definitely true. Especially on the point of third party relations and establishing their online presence. Those two alone will likely play a tremendous role in who has the most success next generation. In the shadow of those two things, the overall importance of whether or not they sell more units than the Wii is pretty small.

They definitely have a leg up, I'm just not so sure they have enough of a leg up over Sony atm to bet on MS taking #1 next gen. Its pretty close with those two IMO in terms of third party support and their online networks. MS has a lead there, but its not insurmountable IMO. Really makes me wonder though how far out ahead MS would have been this gen without the silliness of the RROD and other missteps. They accomplished nearly everything despite all that. If those hurdles weren't there.....
 

Brashnir

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For the bolded, I think its going to depend heavily on just how hard Nintendo tries to go for the userbases of those platforms. They pushed awful hard into the PSP's territory with the DS. I mean, HARD, and it really seems to be working out for them so far. Prior to them pulling that off I wouldnt have ever assumed they had a chance at putting the bullseye on that demographic and succeeding.

But now Im a little curious as to whether or not they can manage to do it. I hate to say it because I dont like the franchise, but Call of Duty 2012. They probably have to get that if they want to effect the PS360 saleswise. If I dont see that at E3 for the WiiU, Ill be nearly content to say they wont have much effect of the HDtwins.

I think this is a bit of an odd argument for several reasons.

First - I'm not sure that "slightly better graphics" is going to be much, if any draw for the Wii U version as far as impacting sales of other platforms. Graphics whores bought the PS3 or 360 5+ years ago, and would probably play the PC version before the Wii U release.

Second - CoD is seen primarily as an online game, and Nintendo is notoriously poor with online implementations. Perhaps they'll improve the situation with the Wii U, but if the 3DS is any indication, they're going nowhere fast. Additionally, most people looking to pick up a console to play an online game are going to go with the one where most of their friends are playing - which isn't going to be Wii U except in a few corner cases where someone's friends are all Nintendo fans and early adopters.

In the short term, I don't think Wii U will have much of an affect on PS3 and 360 sales at all. By the time it does, the other next gen systems will be on the market as well, so it will be hard to tell how much of that effect is even due to Wii U's influence.
 

donny2112

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Xbox's meaningful victories don't depend on it and it's not necessary as evidence of Wii's failings.

Exactly. As said before, there's not a "winner" this generation like there was the last two generations. The "winners" this generation all need astericks.

* Wii was the "winner" in most hardware overall, but was pitifully supported by the industry
* PS3 and 360 split territories for the lead between themselves in 2nd/3rd place, but the industry supported them far and away as the real "winners" of the generation

Just talking about the U.S.,

* Wii far and away dominated as the sales "winner" during its life, but that life was "only" a normal console life due to massive lack of most meaningful industry support. Therefore it ended well before its competitors
* 360 far and away dominated as the industry-supported "winner" for meaningful software support, but its sales when placed up against the Wii/PS2 didn't match up. However, the support it received combined with expensive initial price gave it a much longer "life" in the U.S. allowing it to eventually sell comparable numbers over a longer span
* PS3 survived with industry support as a tag-along to 360, but it still outsold last generation's 2nd/3rd place consoles

For personal perspective, I value Babe Ruth's 714 homeruns as being more meaningful to the game than Hank Aaron's 755.

If the Xbox 360 sells more total units in America than the Wii in the long run, it will have sold more total units than the Wii in America in the long run, yes.

But it's almost a little insulting to the Xbox if you fail to understand that it didn't and doesn't need to. Microsoft's share gains in 3rd party revenue, their successes with subscription network services and downloadable products, and how these victories affect their extremely favorable strategic positioning for the next generation are far worthier subjects of discussion than the number of players sold through to customers.

Whether or not 360 passes Wii is an irrelevance next to the question of how well it can continue to retain 3rd party revenue vs. Wii U, the PS3, the shades of PS4 and its own successor, and to some extent, Vita. Or its retains or gains in migrating its network services to the next platform.

Microsoft won the generation, albeit perhaps not decisively. They may not have anticipated Nintendo's results, but they won every symmetric competition required by their business plan. The lines crossing is just something kind of cool that might happen, like seeing how high PS2 and DS totes could get long term.

Good post. :)
 

Parmenides

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May 9, 2006
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I don't care about politics,and it takes too much time to explain,but the Xbox 360 will probably be the best selling console of all time in the US. Morover,its cumulative software sales in the US will probably top 400 million units


The PS3 will probably overtake the PS1 in the US (in the PAL region and certain key emerging markets,the PS3 will be light-years ahead of the PS1.The reason: PS2,a last-generation console,took care of business,did the dirty work and handed the Wii60 head to the PS3 on a silver plate)


Point is: PS360 will print money in the coming years.Unfortunately for Sony,the Blu-ray is not worth the trouble.
 

guek

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I don't care about politics,and it takes too much time to explain,but the Xbox 360 will probably be the best selling console of all time in the US.

Um, no. I don't think 360 has 15-20 million more lifetime sales left in the states.
 

shinra-bansho

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But at the same time, 360 worldwide software sales could very well surpass wii's numbers (if it hasn't already. I thought last time I checked though, Wii was well ahead). It'll probably be more accurate to say the two will end in a tie at best for the 360.

I thought there were no 360 worldwide software numbers.
 

guek

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Unless you are predicting a total collapse of the US home console video game industry, it is easily going to sell another 15-20 million.

Going back and adding up all of 2011 NPD's, 360 sold roughly 7.23 million in the US last year. Signs are pointing to 360 sales likely being down YoY for 2012, but lets say for the sake of idiocy that the 360 can match its best year ever...it would have to do so for almost 3 years in a row in order to beat PS2 sales.

15 million left in the US is a high end, best case scenario for 360. Possible but extremely unlikely. 2012 sales are most likely going to be under 2011 sales. 2013 sales will be below for sure. If Wii U takes off, 360 will probably have about 10 million sales left in its lifetime in the states.

I thought there were no 360 worldwide software numbers.

I swear back in their 2010 or 2009 statements, nintendo talked about worldwide software numbers vs. the competition. I can't for the life of me find them though so I might be remembering things incorrectly.
 

donny2112

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Unless you are predicting a total collapse of the US home console video game industry, it is easily going to sell another 15-20 million.

It would need a PS2 tail to sell another 15-20 million in the U.S. Do the math. 2012 will not be bigger than 2011, even with a price cut. Look at the history.

If Wii U takes off, 360 will probably have about 10 million sales left in its lifetime in the states.

360's own successor will be launching in 2013, so that's going to cut into a great deal, as well. As said, it'd need a PS2 long tail to get to those levels.

I thought there were no 360 worldwide software numbers.

There aren't. Sometimes people confuse the NPD tie ratio given by Microsoft as a shipped tie ratio to get "worldwide" numbers, but obviously, that doesn't work.
 

guek

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360's own successor will be launching in 2013, so that's going to cut into a great deal, as well. As said, it'd need a PS2 long tail to get to those levels.

Yeah, I don't think it'll get that high either, but it does depend roughly on when xbox3 launches. 360 is down YoY so far but it's only been 2 months. Though seemingly unlikely at this point, 360 might hit 6 million in 2012 and around 3-4 in 2013.
 

bigtroyjon

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It would need a PS2 tail to sell another 15-20 million in the U.S. Do the math. 2012 will not be bigger than 2011, even with a price cut. Look at the history.



360's own successor will be launching in 2013, so that's going to cut into a great deal, as well. As said, it'd need a PS2 long tail to get to those levels.

History shows that consoles in the US don't have sharp decreases in sales and there has always been a large market of consumers who are looking to buy cheap hardware. And it doesn't need to be bigger than 2012. 20% drop for the next 5 years and there is your 20 million sales.

360 successor is not going to cut into 360 sales. Early adopters are not the same people who are looking to buy a cheap $100-150 console. The only thing that would cut into 360 sales would be if the PS3 had some kind of spark that resulted in it being the go to cheap console for the next 5 years but that's incredibly unlikely due to the standard hard drive which will keep it's production costs higher.
 

donny2112

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History shows that consoles in the US don't have sharp decreases in sales

Then you aren't looking at history (unless you're just looking at PS2, which is what I already said).

20% drop for the next 5 years and there is your 20 million sales.

:lol

Oh, my. You really aren't looking at history.

:lol

Edit:
Numbers.

GameCube:
Peak Year (2003) - 3.27m
Peak+1 => -30%
Peak+2 => -26%
Peak+3 => -56%

Xbox:
Peak Year (2004) - 4.01m
Peak+1 => -44%
Peak+2 => -83%

PS2:
Peak Year (2002) - 8.39m
Peak+1 => -25%
Peak+2 => -26%
Peak+3 => +18% (PSTwo shortages at end of 2004 pushed sales into 2005 making 2004's drop higher and 2005 an increase)
Peak+4 => -15%
Peak+5 => -16%


Edit2:
Throw in Wii, too.

Wii:
Peak Year (2008) - 10.2m
Peak+1 => -6%
Peak+2 => -26%
Peak+3 => -36%
 

bigtroyjon

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Then you aren't looking at history (unless you're just looking at PS2, which is what I already said).



:lol

Oh, my. You really aren't looking at history.

:lol
The only consoles that had big sharp drops from it's peak were the Wii and the xbox. Everything else had more gradual declines until they died off. The graph from last month's thread makes that pretty clear, even the gamecube didn't sharply drop off in sales over it's last few years. It started at a much lower point so the sales weren't huge but it still gradually dropped until death. Shoot, the PS1 was flat between years 7 and 8.

And my comment earlier was about 15-20, I don't think 20% over the next 5 years is going to happen but that's what they would need for 20 million. 15 million is basically assured at this point.
 

donny2112

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And my comment earlier was about 15-20, I don't think 20% over the next 5 years is going to happen but that's what they would need for 20 million. 15 million is basically assured at this point.

If 360 followed GameCube, it'd sell 10.5m over the next 3 years.
If 360 followed Xbox, it'd sell 4.8m over the next 2 years (and be basically dead at that point).
If 360 followed Wii, it'd sell 15.1m over the next 3 years.

If 360 followed PS2, it'd sell 21.7m over the next 5 years.

Knocks against 360 selling like PS2 over next five years:
* PS2 had three years after peak before the next generation started. 360 has one.
* PS2 had four years after peak before its successor came out. 360 has two.

In short, it is extremely unlikely that 360 will sell substantially over the next five years. That'd be four years into the next generation. 360's peak is most likely too late to still have that kind of longevity.

Edit:
On a personal note, this is the most I've posted in the monthly NPD thread since April 2010 and December 2009. Thought I was posting in it a lot more than usual. :lol
 

bigtroyjon

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If 360 followed GameCube, it'd sell 10.5m over the next 3 years.
If 360 followed Xbox, it'd sell 4.8m over the next 2 years (and be basically dead at that point).
If 360 follwed Wii, it'd sell 15.1m over the next 3 years.

If 360 followed PS2, it'd sell 21.7m over the next 5 years.

Knocks against 360 selling like PS2 over next five years:
* PS2 had three years after peak before the next generation started. 360 has one.
* PS2 had four years after peak before its successor came out. 360 has two.
So it clearly doesn't need to do PS2 numbers to hit 15-20 and I never said it would. Why not look at the PS1 and N64 while you're at it?

One huge thing in favor of the 360 compared to every other console is that all of them(aside from the xbox which is a clear outlier and is basically irrelevant to this type of comparison) sold for more years post peak compared to before the peak due to getting cheaper over time. That demand doesn't just disappear over night and all the new consumers that are looking to purchase cheap consoles will look to the 360 which will be the go to cheap console for people looking to play Madden/NBA/COD/GTA.

I'll ask this again, if they aren't buying 360's what other console are the cheap, new to market consumers going to be buying over the next 3-5 years?
 

donny2112

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Why not look at the PS1 and N64 while you're at it?

Because the numbers are more suspect. Here's what I have, though.

N64:
Peak Year (1997) - < 5m
Peak+1 => -14%
Peak+2 => -9%
Peak+3 => -30%
Peak+4 => -60%

PS1:
Peak Year (1998) - < 10m
Peak+1 => -12%
Peak+2 => -53%
Peak+3 => -30%


If 360 followed N64, it'd sell 17.6m over the next 4 years.
If 360 followed PS1, it'd sell 11.5m over the next 3 years.

Notice how the earlier the peak the system has, the longer it sells going forward?

One huge thing in favor of the 360 compared to every other console is that all of them(aside from the xbox which is a clear outlier and is basically irrelevant to this type of comparison) sold for more years post peak compared to before the peak due to getting cheaper over time.

Each of them (outside of Xbox) also had their peak much earlier in the generation. In reality, it's peak coming so late is a huge mark against the 360 holding up very well for several more years.

I'll ask this again, if they aren't buying 360's what other console are the cheap, new to market consumers going to be buying over the next 3-5 years?

Where do you see history pointing to the "cheap, new to market consumers" heavily buying consoles well into the new generation of consoles?

In other words, nowhere, because they usually don't. At least not in the numbers you're talking about.
 

Brashnir

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Each of them (outside of Xbox) also had their peak much earlier in the generation. In reality, it's peak coming so late is a huge mark against the 360 holding up very well for several more years.

First off, thanks for putting the historical numbers in perspective.

However, the 360's trajectory has thus far been pretty dissimilar to any console that came before it, hasn't it? In fact this whole generation has been pretty dissimilar to those that came before. In what other generation has a console leapt out to a massive sales domination, and then tailed off quickly, while one of its competitors did reasonably well for most of the generation, only to start selling gangbusters near the end?

Everything about this generation has sort of flown in the face of history, so I'm not sure how well past generations will serve as predictors of the 360's future.

On one hand, it could certainly go just as you say. People could get bored with Kinect and the 360's sales could drop off the face of the Earth in the next few years.

On the other hand, if the next consoles come out and none of them are real performance monsters, 360 and PS3 could continue to sell pretty well for a long, long time.

I'm not confident enough in either notion to put my money down one way or the other.
 

AHA-Lambda

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So anyway of determining just how much money EA/Starbreeze lost on Syndicate, and Capcom on Asura's Wrath?
 

Version 3.0

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Everything about this generation has sort of flown in the face of history

It most certainly has. And we know next to nothing about how the next gen will be handled yet, either. Last gen, Microsoft stopped shipping the Xbox to kick-start the 360. We don't know if they'll do something similar, or strongly promote the 360 as a budget purchase, or anything in between. We know almost nothing about launch dates, pricing, or software lineups.

In other words, this gen isn't over. It might even have a surprise or two left in it, who knows?
 

StevieP

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It most certainly has. And we know next to nothing about how the next gen will be handled yet, either. Last gen, Microsoft stopped shipping the Xbox to kick-start the 360. We don't know if they'll do something similar, or strongly promote the 360 as a budget purchase, or anything in between. We know almost nothing about launch dates, pricing, or software lineups.

In other words, this gen isn't over. It might even have a surprise or two left in it, who knows?

The downward trajectory has already started for the 2 HD consoles. The Wii's on its death bed. This generation has 1 last breath left in this fall.
 

jcm

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The downward trajectory has already started for the 2 HD consoles. The Wii's on its death bed. This generation has 1 last breath left in this fall.

Last FY was 360's best, and they are likely to surpass that this FY. The 360 has been up YOY 6 of the last 7 quarters. Last FY was PS3's best, and they're likely to be flat this year. PS3 was up YOY the last 2 quarters, and 4 of the last 6. Where is the downward trajectory?
 

jvm

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For anyone who cares, I've been informed that weekly software sales charts from Rentrak have ceased. No reason given, yet, and no answer yet on whether something like monthly charts might still happen. :(
 

donny2112

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For anyone who cares, I've been informed that weekly software sales charts from Rentrak have ceased. No reason given, yet, and no answer yet on whether something like monthly charts might still happen. :(

:(

Was hoping they'd work out as a good alternative to NPD.
 

specialguy

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Regarding the 360 vs PS2 thing, the problem is we stopped getting PS2 NPD a long time ago, right?

So how will we know?

The same issue might rear it's head with 360 vs Wii, considering how spotty the hardware data we get is. There's no guarantee we'll get Wii number for long after Wii U launches. Even though I think anybody arguing it isn't a pre ordained outcome in favor of 360 by this point is fooling themselves.

Also, these 360 projections need to take into account MS still has a lot of pricing ammo left, including likely one this year. I agree that like the Wii cuts, it feels like the gen is dying and they wont have a huge effect, but I could very well be wrong, and they'll certainly give some boost.

My personal opinion is Charlie's "Oban" SOC is likely a redesigned 360 on a chip. He rumored that for 2013, so my opinion is that's the last 360 revision and will take it down to very low price points eventually. If so 360 will likely have a long tail.
 

bigtroyjon

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Regarding the 360 vs PS2 thing, the problem is we stopped getting PS2 NPD a long time ago, right?

So how will we know?

The same issue might rear it's head with 360 vs Wii, considering how spotty the hardware data we get is. There's no guarantee we'll get Wii number for long after Wii U launches. Even though I think anybody arguing it isn't a pre ordained outcome in favor of 360 by this point is fooling themselves.

We'll know because Microsoft will tell us. They are big fans of NPD bragging.
 

BishopLamont

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The Wii is this generation's clear winner on every level except longevity due to a lack of proper support. 360 maybe passing up on it in one territory sometime down the line is pretty meaningless. I mean the whole console race was meaningless in the first place. It use to mean better third party support, but these days due to this generation has played out, companies in general aren't going to look at how consoles are selling, they'll just look whether the console will sell their game, ofcourse how big the userbase matters, but it doesn't mean as much as it use to, the game has changed from what it use to be. PC ports in general sell nothing compared to console counterparts, but they still get em in the end. As long as the process isn't a hassle and it makes a return, your platform will get supported, its just less of a priority if it doesn't sell as well though (late ports, lack of dlc, less marketing, lack of optimisations etc etc).