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NPD Sales Results for July 2014 [Up1: 3DS LTDs, Wii U LTDs, Tomodachi]

SwiftDeath

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May 31, 2013
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while that's true, i don't know what's so different that will have people flocking to these platforms in general. assassin's creed some more? call of duty and battlefield again? i guess mario mario and more mario works for nintendo, but it only works to a point. i'm not seeing the exciting new games for these platforms that are generating buzz. i guess there's petey. that's basically it though.

Oh I could see the holidays potentially disappointing. I'm just optimistic because I choose to be, not out of some diehard belief it will happen.

I think COD and AC will allow for a larger sense of breadth that what is actually there. You have a new Far Cry, a new Dragon Age, Shadows of Mordor etc. and then they can also buy the new COD and new AC afterwards. Perhaps it won't be enough though

i had smash bros. there for a moment, but i decided to go with my heart.

I suppose it does look to be one of Nintendo's most innovative games in a while I think? Or has there been Toad games in that vein before?

i think this will be the wii u's best year. 2015 has a bunch of niche games and unproven titles, ending with zelda in november. maybe they drop the price or bundle smash bros. at a certain point, but i don't see what can bring it to 100k/month when other platforms seen as having more worth are struggling to sell over 150k and 200k a month respectively.

Wii U does seem to be following Gamecube's sales trends relatively closely and from here that would suggest the second full year after launch is the highest selling year in its life which would correspond to 2014 for the Wii U. Pity that Bayonetta 2 is going to launch on such a small install base albeit I suppose it'll do much better than TW101 [not port-begging as Nintendo did good via Platinum]
 

AniHawk

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Jun 7, 2004
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Oh I could see the holidays potentially disappointing. I'm just optimistic because I choose to be, not out of some diehard belief it will happen.

I think COD and AC will allow for a larger sense of breadth that what is actually there. You have a new Far Cry, a new Dragon Age, Shadows of Mordor etc. and then they can also buy the new COD and new AC afterwards. Perhaps it won't be enough though

ah, dragon age. that's right. i forgot it was out the week before black friday. i might pick it up for my ps3 or 360 if it's any good.

I suppose it does look to be one of Nintendo's most innovative games in a while I think? Or has there been Toad games in that vein before?

it's a weirdass game that's up my alley. it will sell 100,000 units and that will be it.
 
May 21, 2014
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there is no market leader performing like a market leader from the previous two gens. there is no handheld performing like a handheld from the previous two gens (well 3ds is kinda like the psp). if large swaths of the market can disappear over the course of a couple of years, that's not healthy, and it doesn't bode well for everything else, especially when the remnants don't pick up the slack.

The PS4 is currently outselling the PS2 (and is about even with the Wii), launch-aligned. There's no reason whatsoever to ignore 2013 sales. The Xbone is performing extremely well for a second-place console.

The Wii's swath of the market appeared and disappeared over the course of a couple of years. That's why it's an anomaly.

Handheld is a different can of worms.
 

Amir0x

Banned
Oct 27, 2004
103,709
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August is probably going to be nasty for all three consoles. Very few compelling new releases that month. Sony's July numbers are nothing to be proud about either, despite the win.

Thankfully September is Destiny month and should bolster the industry a bit, and the PS4 a lot.
 

SwiftDeath

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ah, dragon age. that's right. i forgot it was out the week before black friday. i might pick it up for my ps3 or 360 if it's any good.

Yeah cross-gen could certainly hurt 8th gen console uptake this fall.

it's a weirdass game that's up my alley. it will sell 100,000 units and that will be it.

It is kind of out of left field right? I don't think I've seen Nintendo turn out a similar game previously.
 

metalslimer

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Jun 9, 2012
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Yeah cross-gen could certainly hurt 8th gen console uptake this fall.



It is kind of out of left field right? I don't think I've seen Nintendo turn out a similar game previously.

That's why I think Assassin's Creed Unity will be a very big title. Of course Ubisoft is going to release Rogue at the exact same time and cannibalize both games.

It is kind of out of left field right? I don't think I've seen Nintendo turn out a similar game previously.

I don't know, it seems like a very Nintendo game to me. Taking an existing character in an already known universe and making it a spinoff game. I think it's only weird because we really didn't see Nintendo do much in the way of new games like it on the Wii.
 

Game Guru

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Imru’ al-Qays;125765360 said:
The Wii wasn't a pure outlier. People buy Nintendo consoles. Some proportion of the people who bought the Wii would have bought it even if the motion control fad had never happened. What proportion, exactly? Probably a proportion somewhere between the proportion that bought the GameCube and that is currently buying the Wii U.

There's a happy medium between taking the Wii's sales at face value and dismissing them all as sales to grandma. Neither one of those perspectives makes sense.

I am pretty sure the total sales of PS2 + Xbox are more than the total sales of 360 + PS3... Not much more mind you, but still a couple of million more which would be a decline though I see it as more stagnant. Comparing just the combined PlayStation & XBox ecosystem also removes Nintendo as a variable, whose traditional gaming market would have theoretically also declined from GameCube to Wii had they focused on the traditional gaming market if we followed the general sales trends of Nintendo consoles that aren't the Wii.

Certainly the sales of handhelds have cratered due to mobile taking a chunk away from it. However, I don't think console gaming, or at least the PlayStation & Xbox ecosystems are declining. What I believe is that they are stagnant and that the big difference between the sales of this generation so far and past ones is that sales were frontloaded at launch due to more availability at launch and that customers have been trained to buy their stuff Day 1.
 

AniHawk

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Imru’ al-Qays;125767592 said:
The PS4 is currently outselling the PS2 (and is about even with the Wii), launch-aligned. There's no reason whatsoever to ignore 2013 sales. The Xbone is performing extremely well for a second-place console.

The Wii's swath of the market appeared and disappeared over the course of a couple of years. That's why it's an anomaly.

Handheld is a different can of worms.

but did the ps4 and xbox one see very frontloaded sales? what's the trajectory? it seems they both experienced a rather big burst and are now performing at a severely reduced level for what would have been expected after their launches.

it's unhealthy when a demographic disappears from the market. if the ps2 era started and all the people who jumped in because of voice acting and fmvs decided they really really liked pc gaming all of a sudden, and the dreamcast sold about 25m units and the gamecube sold 50m units, would that be returning to a trendline or wouldn't you see that as a huge decline?

if entire demographics are totally done with traditional gaming for forever and ever, i'm inclined to believe that it's more likely to happen with other demographics as time goes on. because what consumer doesn't want less expensive and more accessible entertainment? what developer doesn't want cheaper development tools and shorter production timelines? what happened with the wii is an omen, not an anomaly.
 

metalslimer

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Jun 9, 2012
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I am pretty sure the total sales of PS2 + Xbox are more than the total sales of 360 + PS3... Not much more mind you, but still a couple of million more which would be a decline though I see it as more stagnant. Comparing just the combined PlayStation & XBox ecosystem also removes Nintendo as a variable, whose traditional gaming market would have theoretically also declined from GameCube to Wii had they focused on the traditional gaming market if we followed the general sales trends of Nintendo consoles that aren't the Wii.

Certainly the sales of handhelds have cratered due to mobile taking a chunk away from it. However, I don't think console gaming, or at least the PlayStation & Xbox ecosystems are declining. What I believe is that they are stagnant and that the big difference between the sales of this generation so far and past ones is that sales were frontloaded at launch due to more availability at launch and that customers have been trained to buy their stuff Day 1.

Yes, it does seem so and Opiate has discussed this before and the problems that go along with it. Gaming either has to expand it's audience, or they have to lower development costs. Costs don't seem like they are going down anytime soon, so the expansion to mobile is going to be very evident with many publishers this generation.

if entire demographics are totally done with traditional gaming for forever and ever, i'm inclined to believe that it's more likely to happen with other demographics as time goes on. because what consumer doesn't want less expensive and more accessible entertainment? what developer doesn't want cheaper development tools and shorter production timelines? what happened with the wii is an omen, not an anomaly.

Well, yes I think dedicated consoles are a dead end at some point. However, this point you are speaking of seems a decent ways off. I mean things did change dramatically from last gen to this gen, but I don't think the CoD/Madden/Fifa audience is ready to just move on other platforms. I think the idea of talking about this huge decline in the traditional gamer will be more practical when developers begin putting their bigger games on these platforms because the developers will drive consumers to them and not the other way around. I think consumers definitely want cheaper entertainment; however, there is a certain level many of these consumers will not drop below to get cheaper entertainment.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Mar 20, 2007
20,961
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August is probably going to be nasty for all three consoles. Very few compelling new releases that month. Sony's July numbers are nothing to be proud about either, despite the win.

Thankfully September is Destiny month and should bolster the industry a bit, and the PS4 a lot.

I wonder if the news about EA Access will push some to get an Xbox One this month -- especially since Madden is coming soon.

Heh, well it has made some people get an Xbox One this month (I know since I visit sports gaming forums) so I guess what I should say is if the number of people will be significant.
 

SwiftDeath

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Thanks Aqua. You're the best as per usual

I wonder if the news about EA Access will push some to get an Xbox One this month -- especially since Madden is coming soon.

Heh, well it has made some people get an Xbox One this month (I know since I visit sports gaming forums) so I guess what I should say is if the number of people will be significant.

I would think the madden XB1 bundle will have a stronger effect in August/September than EA access will on XB1 sales
 
May 21, 2014
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but did the ps4 and xbox one see very frontloaded sales? what's the trajectory? it seems they both experienced a rather big burst and are now performing at a severely reduced level for what would have been expected after their launches.

Actually the curve is more or less what we'd expect for a not-supply-constrained console. Let's assume the same number of people want to buy a PS4 in its first year as wanted to buy a PS2 in its first year. The PS2 was supply constrained, the PS4 is not. This means that the PS4 will drastically outsell the PS2 in its first few months and then undersell it for the rest of the year, because the PS2's sales curve was artificially smoothed out by supply issues.

Of course we don't know if that hypothetical is accurate or not. But the simple fact that the PS4 is underperforming the PS2 during the off-season doesn't mean anything.

it's unhealthy when a demographic disappears from the market. if the ps2 era started and all the people who jumped in because of voice acting and fmvs decided they really really liked pc gaming all of a sudden, and the dreamcast sold about 25m units and the gamecube sold 50m units, would that be returning to a trendline or wouldn't you see that as a huge decline?

if entire demographics are totally done with traditional gaming for forever and ever, i'm inclined to believe that it's more likely to happen with other demographics as time goes on. because what consumer doesn't want less expensive and more accessible entertainment? what developer doesn't want cheaper development tools and shorter production timelines? what happened with the wii is an omen, not an anomaly.

People who like voice acting and FMVs aren't a demographic, though. At least they're not a coherent demographic. The core console demographic, the demographic that accounts for the vast majority of console sales, has traditionally been youngish guys who like video games.

The people who the Wii attracted into the console market were always done with traditional gaming because they were never interested in traditional gaming in the first place. The fact that they came and went in the space of a few years doesn't really tell us anything about the health of the core console demographic.

Console gamers are hobbyists. They're spending hundreds of dollars on dedicated computers that exist (almost) exclusively to play video games: they're obviously not concerned principally with cost and "accessibility," or they'd have been playing graphically unimpressive browser games on the computers they all have owned for years. It's possible that mobile gaming will eat away at this market like it's been eating away at the handheld market, but it's hardly a foregone conclusion - and as of this moment we've seen basically no evidence of it. People have been buying powerful gaming computers to stick under their TVs for so long because they like playing good-looking games on their TVs, not because there were no cheaper, more accessible alternatives, because there were.
 

joecanada

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Nov 15, 2013
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August is probably going to be nasty for all three consoles. Very few compelling new releases that month. Sony's July numbers are nothing to be proud about either, despite the win.

Thankfully September is Destiny month and should bolster the industry a bit, and the PS4 a lot.

I would be surprised if august was compelling in very many years. I can remember sitting around many an august thinking wow there's no good releases. I always thought it was strange with kids on holidays but maybe they do actually go outside
 

Codeblew

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Jun 24, 2010
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I am pretty sure the total sales of PS2 + Xbox are more than the total sales of 360 + PS3... Not much more mind you, but still a couple of million more which would be a decline though I see it as more stagnant. Comparing just the combined PlayStation & XBox ecosystem also removes Nintendo as a variable, whose traditional gaming market would have theoretically also declined from GameCube to Wii had they focused on the traditional gaming market if we followed the general sales trends of Nintendo consoles that aren't the Wii.

Certainly the sales of handhelds have cratered due to mobile taking a chunk away from it. However, I don't think console gaming, or at least the PlayStation & Xbox ecosystems are declining. What I believe is that they are stagnant and that the big difference between the sales of this generation so far and past ones is that sales were frontloaded at launch due to more availability at launch and that customers have been trained to buy their stuff Day 1.

360 and PS3 are not done selling yet though.
 

Bgamer90

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Mar 20, 2007
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I would think the madden XB1 bundle will have a stronger effect in August/September than EA access will on XB1 sales

EA Access and its news (which was pretty big; and it's funny since I would say that Sony's response made the service even more known to people who would be attracted to it) + Madden Bundle could possibly make things pretty close between the Xbox One and PS4 for this month -- especially since August is usually an even lower month for console sales than July. Going to be a hard month to predict.
 

Game Guru

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360 and PS3 are not done selling yet though.

They may as well be given just how many sales they do need to surpass the sales of PS2 and Xbox. We are talking about 15 million here, which is possible but not at the prices Sony and Microsoft are asking for the last-gen consoles.
 

Opiate

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360 and PS3 are not done selling yet though.

That's true, but they also had significantly more time in the spotlight than PS2+Xbox did. PS3/360 had a combined 15 years as their company's flagship platform before being replaced; PS2+Xbox had 10. I'd call it a wash in terms of "advantage," as you can never get a perfectly suitable comparison.
 
Jul 7, 2014
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EA Access and its news (which was pretty big; and it's funny since I would say that Sony's response made the service even more known to people who would be attracted to it) + Madden Bundle could possibly make things pretty close between the Xbox One and PS4 for this month -- especially since August is usually an even lower month for console sales than July. Going to be a hard month to predict.

That Madden Bundle isn't even in Top 20 on Amazon and the game releases in less than two weeks. I don't think it will make much of difference. The Sunset Overdrive and COD bundles did better.
 

Amir0x

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I wonder if the news about EA Access will push some to get an Xbox One this month -- especially since Madden is coming soon.

Heh, well it has made some people get an Xbox One this month (I know since I visit sports gaming forums) so I guess what I should say is if the number of people will be significant.

I am still in a state of shock that any gamer is willing to trust EA with a subscription to anything after all the underhanded shit they pulled through the gen. To me this is the most remarkable part of any of this. I mean The Sims 4? Sim City? Dungeon Keeper? Their Machinima Ad buy scandal? The online passes? The horrific applications of DLC? Basically 90% of their decisions last gen were fucked up.

But, I don't really think it'd have a major impact. If I had to bet, anyway. It's a unknown quantity to say the least, so I could be very wrong.

I would be surprised if august was compelling in very many years. I can remember sitting around many an august thinking wow there's no good releases. I always thought it was strange with kids on holidays but maybe they do actually go outside

Sometimes there is a good game that gets released in the month, it's not unprecedented or anything. But I really do think August is going to seem particularly brutal for these consoles. People might overreact a bit :p
 

Nightengale

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EA Access and its news (which was pretty big; and it's funny since I would say that Sony's response made the service even more known to people who would be attracted to it)

I'm not in any shape or form having any touch-base with the American gaming market, but has EA Access ever gotten any form of marketing awareness at all?

It seems to be 'beta one day', and then got a soft launch in a short span of time. It felt like EA just threw it out there without any real marketing push for the service.

I agree that something like EA Access has a way bigger potential in terms of turning XB1's console tide as opposed to say... Sunset Overdrive or Fable Legends, but it seems like it's been quite muted as far as exposure goes.

I am still in a state of shock that any gamer is willing to trust EA with a subscription to anything after all the underhanded shit they pulled through the gen. To me this is the most remarkable part of any of this. I mean The Sims 4? Sim City? Dungeon Keeper? Their Machinima Ad buy scandal? The online passes? The horrific applications of DLC? Basically 90% of their decisions last gen were fucked up.

EA has a monopoly of mega-seller casual games like FIFA & Madden, and frankly, I don't think many of those gamers care so much about EA's shittiness.

IMO, EA Access potentially has a big opportunity if they can convince those sports-audience that their deal is best for those gamers who basically do nothing but buy FIFA/Madden every year.

The question, of course, is reaching out to said audience, because I'm also not entirely convinced that they'd be aware of such a service without a massive marketing push.
 

AniHawk

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Jun 7, 2004
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Imru’ al-Qays;125770163 said:
Actually the curve is more or less what we'd expect for a not-supply-constrained console. Let's assume the same number of people want to buy a PS4 in its first year as wanted to buy a PS2 in its first year. The PS2 was supply constrained, the PS4 is not. This means that the PS4 will drastically outsell the PS2 in its first few months and then undersell it for the rest of the year, because the PS2's sales curve was artificially smoothed out by supply issues.

Of course we don't know if that hypothetical is accurate or not. But the simple fact that the PS4 is underperforming the PS2 during the off-season doesn't mean anything.

i don't know about it not meaning anything. when the ps2 exploded out of the gate, it didn't really slow down for a couple of years. even after having sold millions upon millions in the us, it was selling over 200k a month in july until 2008. that stands in stark contrast to the recent performance of these systems that are supposed to be healthy, systems that apparently lots of people want and paradoxically have no interest in currently.

People who like voice acting and FMVs aren't a demographic, though. At least they're not a coherent demographic. The core console demographic, the demographic that accounts for the vast majority of console sales, has traditionally been youngish guys who like video games.

The people who the Wii attracted into the console market were always done with traditional gaming because they were never interested in traditional gaming in the first place. The fact that they came and went in the space of a few years doesn't really tell us anything about the health of the core console demographic.

Console gamers are hobbyists. They're spending hundreds of dollars on dedicated computers that exist (almost) exclusively to play video games: they're obviously not concerned principally with cost and "accessibility," or they'd have been playing graphically unimpressive browser games on the computers they all have owned for years. It's possible that mobile gaming will eat away at this market like it's been eating away at the handheld market, but it's hardly a foregone conclusion - and as of this moment we've seen basically no evidence of it. People have been buying powerful gaming computers to stick under their TVs for so long because they like playing good-looking games on their TVs, not because there were no cheaper, more accessible alternatives, because there were.

i think a hobbyist sort of audience could remain. it won't be enough to sustain the console market, but it will be there, probably supporting whatever's left in some ouya-like dominated world.
 

Amir0x

Banned
Oct 27, 2004
103,709
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EA has a monopoly of mega-seller casual games like FIFA & Madden, and frankly, I don't think many of those gamers care so much about EA's shittiness.

IMO, EA Access potentially has a big opportunity if they can convince those sports-audience that their deal is best for those gamers who basically do nothing but buy FIFA/Madden every year.

The question, of course, is reaching out to said audience, because I'm also not entirely convinced that they'd be aware of such a service without a massive marketing push.

Many don't, but many do. And we probably shouldn't be celebrating gamers willingness to be fucked over repeatedly :p

But yeah, I'm not convinced it'll actually move systems. The service itself might be a success, but I doubt it'll be a major impact in the so-called "console wars."
 

Balb

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i think a hobbyist sort of audience could remain. it won't be enough to sustain the console market, but it will be there, probably supporting whatever's left in some ouya-like dominated world.

I think the console market is viable. I don't think a 3 console market is viable, however. It'll be interesting to see who'll stick around for the next generation.
 
May 21, 2014
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i don't know about it not meaning anything. when the ps2 exploded out of the gate, it didn't really slow down for a couple of years. even after having sold millions upon millions in the us, it was selling over 200k a month in july until 2008. that stands in stark contrast to the recent performance of these systems that are supposed to be healthy, systems that apparently lots of people want and paradoxically have no interest in currently.

We don't know what PS4/Xbone sales will look like in future years. All we know is that right now they're healthy. Maybe a year or two from now we'll be able to say that the market has shrunk, but at the moment the evidence at least suggests that it hasn't.

i think a hobbyist sort of audience could remain. it won't be enough to sustain the console market, but it will be there, probably supporting whatever's left in some ouya-like dominated world.

The hobbyist audience has sustained the console market this long, I don't see where exactly it's going to go that would cause it to disappear. PCs, maybe, with the percolation of Steam Big Picture into the gaming consciousness? But that's just the consolification of Steam, not a sign of the demise of consoles. Certainly I don't see any reason why console gamers would switch to mobile games all of a sudden: if they valued cost and portability over graphics and couchability they would be integrated graphics laptop gamers and not console gamers by now.

The main problem with the market right now isn't console or software sales, it's development costs. Eventually they'll have to stagnate, at which point I suppose we'll see mobile devices begin to catch up to consoles in terms of graphics output (and therefore begin to pose a serious threat to the console market). But that isn't happening right now, and I see no reason to assume it'll happen anytime soon.
 

shinra-bansho

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The problem with these comparisons is often timeframes. Combine the PS2 and XBX sales and they exceed the PS3 and 360 sales. But part of the former occurred over the course of like 13 years and in part concurrent to the PS3 and 360 sales (assuming we're talking worldwide here, as they don't if we're just looking at NPD). Much of that presumably then in developing markets.

I prefer annualised sales rate comparisons for that reason.

As for the Wii, we seem to have this discussion monthly. But to me, segmentation for garnering analysis and insight still makes a whole lot more sense than not segmenting.

Then we get into the whole who was the PS2 selling to, where one perspective says that the same demographic audiences/market segments buying now are those that were buying then, while another says that the PS2 was more mainstream and/or casual friendly and thus was more successful at attracting other audiences that are now being swayed away by mobile. I subscribe to the former, with the caveat of again timeframes, in that in this early phase I don't think the market segments being targeted are particularly different, but later in the PS2's life the product positioning transitioned towards being more "casual" as the PS2 price dropped into much more mass market realms. I think the two makers will follow a similar strategy again this generation, but who knows if they a) will and b) whether it will work.
 

AniHawk

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Imru’ al-Qays;125773913 said:
We don't know what PS4/Xbone sales will look like in future years. All we know is that right now they're healthy. Maybe a year or two from now we'll be able to say that the market has shrunk, but at the moment the evidence at least suggests that it hasn't.

it's probably a matter of perception. you think it's healthy because it still fits into the overall sales of outselling previous gen leaders. i think they're worrying at the very least because i'm reminded of the 3ds 'outselling the ds' when the ds was initially a bomb and didn't become what it was going to be until about 18 months in, and 3ds sales were actually mediocre at best.

The hobbyist audience has sustained the console market this long, I don't see where exactly it's going to go that would cause it to disappear. PCs, maybe, with the percolation of Steam Big Picture into the gaming consciousness? But that's just the consolification of Steam, not a sign of the demise of consoles. Certainly I don't see any reason why console gamers would switch to mobile games all of a sudden: if they valued cost and portability over graphics and couchability they would be integrated graphics laptop gamers and not console gamers by now.

The main problem with the market right now isn't console or software sales, it's development costs. Eventually they'll have to stagnate, at which point I suppose we'll see mobile devices begin to catch up to consoles in terms of graphics output (and therefore begin to pose a serious threat to the console market). But that isn't happening right now, and I see no reason to assume it'll happen anytime soon.

i don't think the traditional market will transition to mobile without mobile becoming a lot more complex. i think something will happen so that gaming on the television with a controller will evolve beyond the need for hardware. we're already seeing the seeds of it now with ea's game vault, steam, and ps now. even nintendo's viewing digital games as a sort of platform unto itself. it's really a matter of time before technology renders these machines obsolete aside from a few hobbyists. it could be 10 years from now, or it could be 20 years from now, but i think what gaming is going to be has already started.
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
Jul 29, 2010
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Hey Aqua, any chance you could give some US LTDs for like the top 5-10 GC titles? Also, folks were debating whether console Zelda sells above 5m, and so I was wondering whether Wind Waker hit that number worldwide. If it did, it'd probably help steer that discussion. Thanks as always.
 

jryi

Senior Analyst, Fanboy Drivel Research Partners LLC
Jun 11, 2013
710
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I wouldn't be worried about market shrinking, at least not yet. First of all, from publishers' point of view it doesn't matter, how much each individual console sells, only the combined install base, which is not the same as sum of console sales. Meaning, the total install base at this moment can be anything from 10M (all multi-console owners) to 20M (every console owner only has one brand). If PS4 ends up selling 100M and Xbox One and Wii U never break 20M, the total install base could still be larger than it was last generation.

Another thing is that the initial burst was humongous, so the market could already be closed to saturated at this price level. How much did PS2 sell before its first price cut? Saturation is not a function of time but of install base, right? Maybe the time for first price cut for PS4 is closer than has been anticipated so far.
 

Gamerblood

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I wonder if the news about EA Access will push some to get an Xbox One this month -- especially since Madden is coming soon.

Heh, well it has made some people get an Xbox One this month (I know since I visit sports gaming forums) so I guess what I should say is if the number of people will be significant.

I don't see EA Access moving the needle in any significant Way. Anyone interested in the new Madden, won't wait a year to play it with the service.
 

ascii42

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I am pretty sure the total sales of PS2 + Xbox are more than the total sales of 360 + PS3...

Worldwide? Yes. In the US? No.

And anyway, as I've said before, the PS2's long lifespan makes things tricky. Over 50 million of its sales actually occurred during the PS3/360/Wii generation.
 

StevieP

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Sep 10, 2006
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The problem with these comparisons is often timeframes. Combine the PS2 and XBX sales and they exceed the PS3 and 360 sales. But part of the former occurred over the course of like 13 years and in part concurrent to the PS3 and 360 sales (assuming we're talking worldwide here, as they don't if we're just looking at NPD). Much of that presumably then in developing markets.

I prefer annualised sales rate comparisons for that reason.

As for the Wii, we seem to have this discussion monthly. But to me, segmentation for garnering analysis and insight still makes a whole lot more sense than not segmenting.

Then we get into the whole who was the PS2 selling to, where one perspective says that the same demographic audiences/market segments buying now are those that were buying then, while another says that the PS2 was more mainstream and/or casual friendly and thus was more successful at attracting other audiences that are now being swayed away by mobile. I subscribe to the former, with the caveat of again timeframes, in that in this early phase I don't think the market segments being targeted are particularly different, but later in the PS2's life the product positioning transitioned towards being more "casual" as the PS2 price dropped into much more mass market realms. I think the two makers will follow a similar strategy again this generation, but who knows if they a) will and b) whether it will work.

I don't see the software output being viable for the most part for the mass market from... Any publisher on the ps4/one, first or third (edit: there are a few smaller projects meant for that demo already, but they aren't destined to do well based on the rest of the majority of focus). Software development costs are pushing everyone into safer and safer territory software wise. The key to attracting these demos obviously isn't just price of the box.

Imo this is where the ever increasing development costs neuter the market. It's already neutering software output for everybody.
 

anexanhume

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ah, dragon age. that's right. i forgot it was out the week before black friday. i might pick it up for my ps3 or 360

I still expect these titles to perform better. I think this will be the last Fall for prominent non sports titles to support 360/ps3.

That's why I think Assassin's Creed Unity will be a very big title. Of course Ubisoft is going to release Rogue at the exact same time and cannibalize both games.

Overall AC sales still up though. I doubt anyone doesn't buy one or the other because the other exists. And many will just buy both.
 
it could be 10 years from now, or it could be 20 years from now, but i think what gaming is going to be has already started.

That scenario describes a change in all of computing, not just consoles. If we're indeed in a fully connected era a couple decades from now, everything will be streamed, even the OS of your phone and all of its contents.

For the foreseeable future(that is atleast 10 years), content delivery systems will remain the same.

PS Now and the likes will only replace consoles when 1. average global internet connection rates(not just the West and few Asian countries) reaches satisfactory levels, Sony released the PS4 in +100 countries already, many of them are developing markets that won't have the infrastructure anytime soon 2. PS Now to be a substitute for next gen dedicated hardware at launch, and that every 5-6 years. 3. most importantly, consoles are not a viable gaming platform anymore, and which they still are. Even if the PS4 sold half of PS3, we would still get a PS5, because PS4 is making them and 3rd parties money.
 
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Imru’ al-Qays;125770163 said:
Actually the curve is more or less what we'd expect for a not-supply-constrained console.
...
People have been buying powerful gaming computers to stick under their TVs for so long because they like playing good-looking games on their TVs, not because there were no cheaper, more accessible alternatives, because there were.

This poster gets it. The shape of sales is very different this generation due to better online shops, easy preordering and much better supply chains. In a supply unconstrained market like we have today, you'd expect the sales to closely track the release schedule. I'd expect September and Q4 to be pretty beastly just as I'd expect the summer to be pretty weak.

He's also right (imo) about the future of (home) console gaming. Its not going anywhere. I do agree that handheld consoles are done and that the 3ds successor will likely be the last dedicated handheld but that's because there are plenty of alternatives to handhelds. We're at least 15 - 20 years away from global internet connections being good enough to make a streaming only solution viable across the board without local compute. PC gaming will remain something with very little mainstream overlap and mobile will continue to not offer a "couch gaming" solution due to power constraints. For high fidelity gaming on a TV there simply isn't any competition to a home console.

It is possible that the PS4 + XBO don't sell nearly as many units as the PS3 + 360 (on a per year basis) but I think attach rates will drive better profitability. Fewer, safer AAA titles seems to be a guarantee at this point. Just the big annual franchises alone - COD, sports games, AC and the occasional GTA level blockbuster have sufficient revenues to support the business. The creativity will come from the independent space and looking at the number of graphically intensive "indies" with high production values, that's no bad thing.
 

Dunlop

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I am still in a state of shock that any gamer is willing to trust EA with a subscription to anything after all the underhanded shit they pulled through the gen.
You shouldn't trust any of them..but I don't understand this mentality, what is the risk? You commit 5 or 30 dollars and can really cancel it'd it dies not live up to what you expect.

I'm talking about the investment to what the service is now at sign up, not the bringing of the gaming apocalypse as many forsee
 

TSM

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i think a hobbyist sort of audience could remain. it won't be enough to sustain the console market, but it will be there, probably supporting whatever's left in some ouya-like dominated world.

I think the biggest problem going forward is that for most of the market portable handheld and console controls are complete overkill. So many buttons, directional controls and maybe a touch screen. Why would a casual gamer want anything to do with that? Of course as core gamers most of us would be fine with them finding a way to add more buttons. Look at all the people asking for a second analog stick on the 3DS. I personally think that if Nintendo doesn't realize this, their next handheld portable is in real trouble in the west.
 

Death2494

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I wonder if the news about EA Access will push some to get an Xbox One this month -- especially since Madden is coming soon.

Heh, well it has made some people get an Xbox One this month (I know since I visit sports gaming forums) so I guess what I should say is if the number of people will be significant.

How can you blindly attribute that to EA Access? It actually went down from 39.4k a week (5 weeks in June) to 32.75k /week. PS4 also dropped but this was expected wasn't it? I think the price drop looks like it may have stopped the bleeding. Xbox One isn't performing bad in America, MSFT problem is Europe. They really need to make a push over there.
 

Dire

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Aug 18, 2007
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...PC gaming will remain something with very little mainstream overlap ....

As a small heads up Steam announced 75million active users at the end of last year - they gained about 10million new users in the launch window of the new consoles alone. Oh yeah... and LoL is a PC game that has erm about 70million unique players per month. And Steam/Lol are < PC_GAMERS_TOTAL.

But yeah let's keep talking about something like the 360 that sold 80million total units, give or take, as the "mainstream" device because that makes just tons of sense.
 

Bgamer90

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Mar 20, 2007
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I don't see EA Access moving the needle in any significant Way. Anyone interested in the new Madden, won't wait a year to play it with the service.

The service isn't just for the vault. The service is to also be able to play EA games early and get discounts on the games themselves + their DLC.

Madden 15 will be up on the service five days before it releases in retail.

________________

I'm not in any shape or form having any touch-base with the American gaming market, but has EA Access ever gotten any form of marketing awareness at all?

It seems to be 'beta one day', and then got a soft launch in a short span of time. It felt like EA just threw it out there without any real marketing push for the service.

I agree that something like EA Access has a way bigger potential in terms of turning XB1's console tide as opposed to say... Sunset Overdrive or Fable Legends, but it seems like it's been quite muted as far as exposure goes.

No it hasn't in terms of actual media marketing. The service has been advertised on the Xbox One dashboard and it got a lot of attention online. I know a lot of the "core" sports gamers know about it but I don't know how many "mainstream/casuals" know about it.

_________________

How can you blindly attribute that to EA Access? It actually went down from 39.4k a week (5 weeks in June) to 32.75k /week. PS4 also dropped but this was expected wasn't it? I think the price drop looks like it may have stopped the bleeding. Xbox One isn't performing bad in America, MSFT problem is Europe. They really need to make a push over there.

???

I'm talking about EA Access & Madden possibly helping the Xbox One for this month. Not last month (July). The service was announced on the 30th of last month too iirc.
 

donny2112

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Apr 18, 2005
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but did the ps4 and xbox one see very frontloaded sales? what's the trajectory? it seems they both experienced a rather big burst and are now performing at a severely reduced level for what would have been expected after their launches.

Curious what limiting the chart to #1+#2 in each gen would result in so made one.



Full console comparison, for reference.


it's unhealthy when a demographic disappears from the market. if the ps2 era started and all the people who jumped in because of voice acting and fmvs decided they really really liked pc gaming all of a sudden, and the dreamcast sold about 25m units and the gamecube sold 50m units, would that be returning to a trendline or wouldn't you see that as a huge decline?

if entire demographics are totally done with traditional gaming for forever and ever, i'm inclined to believe that it's more likely to happen with other demographics as time goes on. because what consumer doesn't want less expensive and more accessible entertainment? what developer doesn't want cheaper development tools and shorter production timelines? what happened with the wii is an omen, not an anomaly.

"Listen to the mad man."
Cross tag with Stump :p