Support NeoGAF

[Firesprite121984]

Actuall sales numbers? plus some guessing for Europe

And given how iffy European numbers are as they stand... they're about the best we can do?

Sounds good enough to me.

Especially, when you've got the smarty pants like donny tallying up and many others putting their colorful (and pretty) spins on graph work.

GAF has become near competition with NPD, and the figures you guys come up with are free. Not to knock them. They have helped spur an entire generation of armchair analysts. Gamers seem to become obsessed with the deconstructed numbers.

I've always been a Nintendo fan, and MS made me a fan of theirs last gen, Sony... I was once a fan and they've fallen out of favor for me. My PS2 died, about a year before SotC released, my PSX did the same years before. After that price was uttered I decided I wouldn't be on their numbers this gen.

I never denied reality. When the GCN and Xbox released to Sony already passed the 15 million unit mark (I think. :S) I knew it would be one hell of an uphill battle. That battle never came. The Xbox was screwed in Japan right from the start, the GCN had stumbled right out of the gate that first January out. I knew it was Sony's win again.

I've seen so many people act like there's anyway Sony can get out of it, but I don't see how it can. Momentum drives this industry. Nintendo has the momentum, Microsoft has the games for cheaper, and Sony by their own mistakes leaves themselves out in the cold. This fall will hurt Sony badly if they can't pick up interest by then.

It would be very hard to come back if both of your competitors have hit areas of 6-7 million units ahead of you. And that price of $599 will do nothing but hurt them. They need to be done with that price completely.

I seem to have started ranting. I'll apologize in advanced.

My point was NeoGaf numbers are good enough to take at face value.

 

[Monk]

Uh huh. So something like this?

8.5 + 300k(Jan) - 250k(Feb) / 2 + 185K(March) -...+....x.... = 9.9 million.

Next month 9.9 + 300k = 9.99999999 million LTD.

Maybe actual npd + media create numbers with some european guesstimates based on chart track?

 

[titiklabingapat]

Wasn't there an established, confirmed and reconfirmed ratio of almost 50% that of NA's totals for the European /PAL market? Australia, Japanese and the rest of the world's sales are more or less inconsequential for the 360(and for the other two for the last market).

 

[Nolan.]

Tenchu z... anyway I wonder if sigma doesn't get great numbers if they will port it, seeing as NG2 has yet to be officially announced and revealed.

 

[titiklabingapat]

Spoiler

Port the original to the Wii

. Shirley, the game's amazing amazingness alone will stop the casuals on thier tracks!

 

[Randy Lanzarote]

I have Chart Track figures here, but they are only for up to 9th June, I don't have any more recent data than that. I got these figures off a guy I know who works for a software publisher in the UK.

UK (june 9th)
Wii – 618,278
PS3 – 281, 977
Xbox 360 - 1,193,088

Remember, no figures for Europe at all.

 

[titiklabingapat]

I have Chart Track figures here, but they are only for up to 9th June, I don't have any more recent data than that. I got these figures off a guy I know who works for a software publisher in the UK.

UK (june 9th)
Wii – 618,278
PS3 – 281, 977
Xbox 360 - 1,193,088

Remember, no figures for Europe at all.

Did you add the recent Media Create and NPD figures into this chart?

 

[Randy Lanzarote]

Did you add the recent Media Create and NPD figures into this chart?

Yes, latest NPD and Media Create are both in there. (June NPD and 9/7-15/7 MC)

As stated though, UK data is only good up to 9th June.

 

[JonathanEx]

Maybe actual npd + media create numbers with some european guesstimates based on chart track?
http://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f64/donny2112/Sales Numbers/WorldwideHW-1.png

Some quick and very dirty looking at this graph makes me think we'll see this trend:
July: gap gets to around .5million.
August: gap gets too close to call, 360 might just pull ahead as it actually has releases
September: Any chance for the Wii to overtake (or stay in the lead) is set back by a Halo 3 surge.

 

[titiklabingapat]

Yes, latest NPD and Media Create are both in there. (June NPD and 9/7-15/7 MC)

As stated though, UK data is only good up to 9th June.

Canadian ones, too?

 

[besada]

Lovely numbers, lovely thread.

I have entered surreal age. I'm reading the NPD thread while CNN talks about the NPD numbers. Since when did CNN cover NPD numbers?

 

[Randy Lanzarote]

Canadian ones, too?

No, good call, forgot they were released first.

I'll add them into Excel and update the hosted jpg graph.

Just gimme 5 minutes

 

[titiklabingapat]

No, good call, forgot they were released first.

I'll add them into Excel and update the hosted jpg graph.

Just gimme 5 minutes

I thought something was off

Anyway, nice work on the chart and hope to hear more "leaked" charttrack stuff from you.

 

[Haunted]

holy ****ing shit! :lol

 

[Randy Lanzarote]

I thought something was off

Anyway, nice work on the chart and hope to hear more "leaked" charttrack stuff from you.

Right, Canadian data for June is now included, the jpg should update with a refresh.

And if I hear any other chart track numbers, I'll do my best to get them up here.

I just wish we could get some solid sales data, specifically from MS, for the European region. It gives us armchair pundits something to chatter over at the very least.

 

[EktorPR]

Some quick and very dirty looking at this graph makes me think we'll see this trend:
July: gap gets to around .5million.
August: gap gets too close to call, 360 might just pull ahead as it actually has releases
September: Any chance for the Wii to overtake (or stay in the lead) is set back by a Halo 3 surge.

I honestly don't think Halo 3 will push that many consumers to buy a 360...I mean, the game is not as anticipated as Halo 2 was, under the same circumstances. We'll see.

 

[p3tran]

Lovely numbers, lovely thread.

I have entered surreal age. I'm reading the NPD thread while CNN talks about the NPD numbers. Since when did CNN cover NPD numbers?

cnn doesnt do npd gifs

 

[JonathanEx]

I honestly don't think Halo 3 will push that many consumers to buy a 360...I mean, the game is not as anticipated as Halo 2 was, under the same circumstances. We'll see.

Well, it's going to make a difference, just how significant that difference is I don't really know, but playing with guestimates, it should be enough to slightly delay the Wii from taking the lead.

 

[Forsete]

Per Oscarsson?

 

[mr_bishiuk]

I'm lazy at what rate is the Wii catching up with the 360?


Also do Western 3rd party developers consider Japan hardware sales when they know they cant sell anything there anyway?

 

[Frankfurter]

Some quick and very dirty looking at this graph makes me think we'll see this trend:
July: gap gets to around .5million.
August: gap gets too close to call, 360 might just pull ahead as it actually has releases
September: Any chance for the Wii to overtake (or stay in the lead) is set back by a Halo 3 surge.

I really don't see how Halo 3 could turn around the market situation in NA AND compensate the sales the Wii has in Japan (~200-400k monthly).

 

[JonathanEx]

I really don't see how Halo 3 could turn around the market situation in NA AND compensate the sales the Wii has in Japan (~200-400k monthly).

I'm not saying turn around. Looking at the WW estimation graphs, the Wii will probably close the gap in the August sales, so they'd be almost neck and neck. A normal month would mean the Wii would overtake for September, but I think there's a chance of Halo 3 boosting 360 to maybe a point where the monthly sales are equal. After that? Wii will probably continue to rise, and 360 return to its old pace. Actually, not old pace, as then it'd be going into the lovely Holiday season.

 

[jimbo]

I really don't see how Halo 3 could turn around the market situation in NA AND compensate the sales the Wii has in Japan (~200-400k monthly).

It won't with just NA. But Europe will see an increase in 360 sales as well. Halo 3 and GTA4 won't just affect NA, but also Europe.

If you factor in Europe they will either be really close or the Wii will outsell it world wide by a small margine because of the Japan factor

 

[SovanJedi]

Fixed

I wonder if Reggie or his son will see this? He should forward it to Miyamoto and Iwata too, give them a great chuckle.

Although they might also be quite disturbed by the whole thing.




























:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

 

[sebthelobster]

I'm lazy at what rate is the Wii catching up with the 360?


Also do Western 3rd party developers consider Japan hardware sales when they know they cant sell anything there anyway?

at a rough estimate. Wii is selling around 1 to 1.2 million per month, while 360 is around 250-300k.

so wii is eating away around 700k worth of the existing 360 lead per month. It is now not a matter of whether the wii can catch up or not, it is a matter of when.

 

[norinrad21]

whenever i look at this, it reminds me of an 80s rap video :lol :lol :lol

 

[Frillen]

You don't know.




erm

First off, good games sell on consoles. Period. There's no magical aura that surrounds consoles with "Nintendo" badging that prevents games from certain publishers from selling. What prevented games from selling on N64/Cube were 1. limited demographic and 2. poor efforts by third parties. Wii is obviously expanding Nintendo's demographic at this point, and there are already a handful of solid performing third party games (even with none of them being hugely invested). These include:

Sonic
Madden
Red Steel
Rayman
Tiger Woods
Call of Duty 3
Resident Evil 4
Super Monkey Ball
Trauma Center

That's 6 different happy publishers. EA, Ubisoft, Activision, Sega, Capcom, Atlus. Not a bad roundup.

The only exclusive third party bomb on Wii is Elebits.

The fact is that GOOD GAMES TEND TO SELL. Even GameCube had its hits when it was selling only to cheapo gamers and Nintendophiles. Wii is expanding far beyond GameCube's scope in userbase, and there is no significant bomb in Wii's lineup to merit this constant "gee will people buy a good game" bullshit.

The average person doesn't know what a 'publisher' is. They buy what looks interesting and is well-marketed. Wii is bound to receive more of these games than Cube or N64 did from third parties, and they will sell.



As far as 360/PS3. 360 is only making money for publishers in the US, and sometimes in Europe. PS3 isn't making much money for third parties ANYWHERE. In a market where the minimum cost of entry is a $400 console that's bombing in one territory and doing just ok in another, PUBLISHERS ARE ****ED. The market would see a massive contraction.

Elebits actually cracked 100k in the US back in February. Don't know how much it has sold afterwards.

 

[jimbo]

I'm not saying turn around. Looking at the WW estimation graphs, the Wii will probably close the gap in the August sales, so they'd be almost neck and neck. A normal month would mean the Wii would overtake for September, but I think there's a chance of Halo 3 boosting 360 to maybe a point where the monthly sales are equal. After that? Wii will probably continue to rise, and 360 return to its old pace. Actually, not old pace, as then it'd be going into the lovely Holiday season.

Halo 3 will push it in Sept, but sales will not drop after that. They will continue through OCT, and then GTA4 will increase them even further. In NOV they will maintain just because it's NOV, and in DEC they will shoot sky high.

They won't come down until January or February of 08 once Halo 3 hits.

The 360 has a chance to outsell the Wii big time in both US and Europe this NOV + DEC for one reason and one reason only. MS CAN have 4-5 million units shipped just for those two months(probably already has most of them ready), while the Wii will be limited by its shipment.

It did around 1.5 million last DEC alone in NA and that was with just GOW. With Halo 3, GTA4 and all other releases, it has the potential of doing well over 2 milllion just for DEC and just in NA and I don't see Nintendo being able to ship that many Wii's considering there is no backstock and there will not be a way of stocking any as its constantly selling out.

 

[JonathanEx]

Halo 3 will push it in Sept, but sales will not drop after that. They will continue through OCT, and then GTA4 will increase them even further. In NOV they will maintain just because it's NOV, and in DEC they will shoot sky high.

Backpeddling on myself, you're probably right there. With Halo 3 being released the end of September, it will have quite a lot of sales in October too...

 

[Snaku]

Fixed

There ya go. :lol

 

[mr_bishiuk]

[/B]

Halo 3 will push it in Sept, but sales will not drop after that. They will continue through OCT, and then GTA4 will increase them even further. In NOV they will maintain just because it's NOV, and in DEC they will shoot sky high.

They won't come down until January or February of 08 once Halo 3 hits.

The 360 has a chance to outsell the Wii big time in both US and Europe this NOV + DEC for one reason and one reason only. MS CAN have 4-5 million units shipped just for those two months(probably already has most of them ready), while the Wii will be limited by its shipment.

It did around 1.5 million last DEC alone in NA and that was with just GOW. With Halo 3, GTA4 and all other releases, it has the potential of doing well over 2 milllion just for DEC and just in NA and I don't see Nintendo being able to ship that many Wii's considering there is no backstock and there will not be a way of stocking any as its constantly selling out.

I agree with you some what, if Nintendo have not been keeping back at least 2 million units for Christmas then the 360 could win the holiday and retake the lead if they have lost it. Is it likely that Nintendo have 2 million units in storage??

 

[E-phonk]

Ok I think it's safe to assume X360 and Wii will be status quo around august.

Knowing this I'd like to look ahead till januari 2008.

Let's take 4 million as a realistic number for x360 for september - januari. This is what microsoft expects afaik.

We know nintendo is currently shipping around 1.1 (400NA, 350 JAP, 350 EU?) million/month, and it's safe to assume keeping some aside for the end of the year and galaxy/smash. This means nintendo could ship +/- 6 million consoles in this september - januari period (1.1/month + some backup).

I think it's possible X360 sales could follow this path:
SEP: 500.000 (halo! + slight pricecut)
OKT: 350.000
NOV: 600.000
DEC: 1.000.000
JAN: 400.000
This means 2.85 million for NA, which leaves 1.15 for EU.

In this same period, nintendo could potentially ship (and sell) 6 million (including Japan offcourse), bringing the lead to 2 million consoles at the beginning of Februari.
Xbox would still be ahead in NA though.

EDIT: Those who assume 5 million x360's sold can adjust the numbers a bit as they see fit.

 

[JonathanEx]

I agree with you some what, if Nintendo have not been keeping back at least 2 million units for Christmas then the 360 could win the holiday and retake the lead if they have lost it. Is it likely that Nintendo have 2 million units in storage??

Highly unlikely for them to keep so many back. But, it is possible a smaller amount is being kept back, or they are ramping up manufacturing. We've seen in Japan with the DS that before a big release sales will drop down as they ship less (back in the 100% sold-out days), so...

 

[titiklabingapat]

Highly unlikely for them to keep so many back. But, it is possible a smaller amount is being kept back, or they are ramping up manufacturing. We've seen in Japan with the DS that before a big release sales will drop down as they ship less (back in the 100% sold-out days), so...

There's actually a few precedent of Nintendo shipping significantly more Wiis for the release of big games and upcoming important holidays so it won't surprise me one bit.

Wii shipments increased by 30% for Golden Week/Super Paper Mario and Dragon Quest Swords so its not a stretch that they might be stockpiling now for the biggest spending period of the year alongside the release of their biggest release for the year. Couple that with the million a month shipments already being pumped into the channel monthly and the 360 should have some substantial challenge come September and onwards.

Another consideration: Nintendo said that they might be capable of producing 1.5M Wiis 3 months ago. Chastise them all you want; it makes business sense to stockpile units for Super Mario Galaxy and Smash Brothers Brawl, and to a lesser extent, Metroid Prime 3.

 

[the thoroughbred]

[/B]

Halo 3 will push it in Sept, but sales will not drop after that. They will continue through OCT, and then GTA4 will increase them even further. In NOV they will maintain just because it's NOV, and in DEC they will shoot sky high.

They won't come down until January or February of 08 once Halo 3 hits.

The 360 has a chance to outsell the Wii big time in both US and Europe this NOV + DEC for one reason and one reason only. MS CAN have 4-5 million units shipped just for those two months(probably already has most of them ready), while the Wii will be limited by its shipment.

It did around 1.5 million last DEC alone in NA and that was with just GOW. With Halo 3, GTA4 and all other releases, it has the potential of doing well over 2 milllion just for DEC and just in NA and I don't see Nintendo being able to ship that many Wii's considering there is no backstock and there will not be a way of stocking any as its constantly selling out.

I wouldn't at all doubt Nintendo's ability to make money. They have proabably sorted out and planned manufacturing for the holiday season. They have more than enough DS's out, and they're probably working on increasing Wii supply, yet again. I predict everywhere is getting equal amounts of Wii's. Around 350k for Japan over 5 weeks, 380k June NPD, then another 350k for Europe gives us 1.1million per month. Anyone know what they are poducing?

I still see "Wii's in stock" signs at places. Yesterday I saw it at HMV, as if they are still selling out on a daily bases.

 

[brain_stew]

[/B]

Halo 3 will push it in Sept, but sales will not drop after that. They will continue through OCT, and then GTA4 will increase them even further. In NOV they will maintain just because it's NOV, and in DEC they will shoot sky high.

They won't come down until January or February of 08 once Halo 3 hits.

The 360 has a chance to outsell the Wii big time in both US and Europe this NOV + DEC for one reason and one reason only. MS CAN have 4-5 million units shipped just for those two months(probably already has most of them ready), while the Wii will be limited by its shipment.

It did around 1.5 million last DEC alone in NA and that was with just GOW. With Halo 3, GTA4 and all other releases, it has the potential of doing well over 2 milllion just for DEC and just in NA and I don't see Nintendo being able to ship that many Wii's considering there is no backstock and there will not be a way of stocking any as its constantly selling out.

What makes you so sure of this? We have already seen Nintendo releasing excess stock for big titles, such as Dragon Quest Swords and Paper Mario in Japan and Mario Strikers in Europe, so they're keeping some behind. Nintendo have repeatedly stated that Wii production is increasing all the time yet weekly shipments to the US have been virtually flat for 5 months now. I think its foolish to think Nintendo aren't building up some healthy reserves for the Christmas rush.

With regards to Microsoft, I see them struggling to push far past 2 million for the holidays in NA at the current price point, there's only so many people willing to pay $400/$480 for a console. At $300? The sky's the limit.

 

[Jirotrom]

Wow at PSP numbers! Nintendo numbers are to be expected. Anyone have the PS2 numbers?

 

[Stop It]

I wouldn't at all doubt Nintendo's ability to make money. They have proabably sorted out and planned manufacturing for the holiday season. They have more than enough DS's out, and they're probably working on increasing Wii supply, yet again. I predict everywhere is getting equal amounts of Wii's. Around 350k for Japan over 5 weeks, 380k June NPD, then another 350k for Europe gives us 1.1million per month. Anyone know what they are poducing?

I still see "Wii's in stock" signs at places. Yesterday I saw it at HMV, as if they are still selling out on a daily bases.

They probably are, stores around me have Wii in stock one day, then the next day they are gone, supplies are up but they still can't get enough out there, totally unthinkable that this would be the case 8 months after release, espcially in the UK (We totally shunned the GC).

 

[mr_bishiuk]

What makes you so sure of this? We have already seen Nintendo releasing excess stock for big titles, such as Dragon Quest Swords and Paper Mario in Japan and Mario Strikers in Europe, so they're keeping some behind. Nintendo have repeatedly stated that Wii production is increasing all the time yet weekly shipments to the US have been virtually flat for 5 months now. I think its foolish to think Nintendo aren't building up some healthy reserves for the Christmas rush.

With regards to Microsoft, I see them struggling to push far past 2 million for the holidays in NA at the current price point, there's only so many people willing to pay $400/$480 for a console. At $300? The sky's the limit.

MS sold 1.5m consoles last Nov/Dec even at the current price point I can see them hitting 2m seeings at it will be the cheapest console to play GTAIV, not forgetting Halo 3 and a true next gen Madden.

Being at a $400 price point is bound to make it more likely to Spike during the holiday season as it is bought as a presant rather than as a treat

 

[jarrod]

Nintendo always stockpiles for the holidays, they're obviously not shipping out full production these days... why do you think we keep getting "artificial shortage" questions?

 

[titiklabingapat]

Nintendo always stockpiles for the holidays, they're obviously not shipping out full production these days... why do you think we keep getting "artificial shortage" questions?

I used to not believe the heresy but after DQS? No way they are doing 100% with their production lines. Still, a million a month is nothing to scoff at and probably pretty close to full capacity.

 

[meddow]

Wow

Good for Nintendo, I hope 360 sales pick up tho, sony will be singing next npd numbers

 

[VanMardigan]

SO ******* CLOSE!!11!!!!!oneoenoen!11!!

 

[Stumpokapow]

Elebits actually cracked 100k in the US back in February. Don't know how much it has sold afterwards.

As of February it was at 99k; it's a little under 130k now and around 62k in Japan. Assuming it bombed in Europe, we could give it 50k there, which puts it at 240k or so worldwide.

 

[Whipped Spartan]

Sorry if this was already posted (didn't see it):


10 Fast Facts from Nintendo – First Half 2007*

1. Through the first half of 2007, the total Wii™ hardware sell-through in the United States and Canada combined is more than 2.3 million units (2.1 million United States, 222,000 Canada).
2. For the first half of 2007, Nintendo represents nearly 70 percent of the industry growth in the United States and Canada combined.
3. In June alone, Wii was once again the top-selling home console with nearly 435,000 units sold in the United States and Canada combined (381,800 United States, 53,000 Canada).
4. In June alone, Nintendo DS™ was the top-selling video game system overall with nearly 608,000 units sold in the United States and Canada combined (562,000 United States, 46,000 Canada).
5. Nintendo remained the top video game publisher in the United States and Canada in June, as well as the top publisher for all of 2007.
6. In June alone, Nintendo has six of the top 10 best-selling games in the United States, including the top four: Mario Party® 8 and Wii Play™ for Wii, and Pokémon® Diamond and Pokémon® Pearl for Nintendo DS.
7. Of the top 30 best-selling games in the United States for all of 2007, half are for Nintendo systems.
8. The three best-selling games in the United States for all of 2007 are for Nintendo systems: Pokémon Diamond, Wii Play and Pokémon Pearl.
9. Wii already boasts more than 180 games, including 120 downloadable Virtual Console™ titles. By the end of the year, that total number will climb to about 330 games, including an additional 100 new games from every major third-party publisher, along with an additional 50 Virtual Console titles.
10. Approximately 300 games are already available for Nintendo DS, with another 140 titles expected by the end of the year from every major third- party publisher.

*Sources: NPD and NPD Canada


as orginally found on Teamxbox (http://news.teamxbox.com/xbox/14056/10-Fast-Facts-from-Nintendo-First-Half-2007/)

 

[norinrad21]

As of February it was at 99k; it's a little under 130k now and around 62k in Japan. Assuming it bombed in Europe, we could give it 50k there, which puts it at 240k or so worldwide.

just enough for a sequel

 

[GhaleonEB]

Ok I think it's safe to assume X360 and Wii will be status quo around august.

Knowing this I'd like to look ahead till januari 2008.

Let's take 4 million as a realistic number for x360 for september - januari. This is what microsoft expects afaik.

We know nintendo is currently shipping around 1.1 (400NA, 350 JAP, 350 EU?) million/month, and it's safe to assume keeping some aside for the end of the year and galaxy/smash. This means nintendo could ship +/- 6 million consoles in this september - januari period (1.1/month + some backup).

I think it's possible X360 sales could follow this path:
SEP: 500.000 (halo! + slight pricecut)
OKT: 350.000
NOV: 600.000
DEC: 1.000.000
JAN: 400.000
This means 2.85 million for NA, which leaves 1.15 for EU.

In this same period, nintendo could potentially ship (and sell) 6 million (including Japan offcourse), bringing the lead to 2 million consoles at the beginning of Februari.
Xbox would still be ahead in NA though.

EDIT: Those who assume 5 million x360's sold can adjust the numbers a bit as they see fit.

The two variables to this scenario I'd mention is 1) Nintendo may be stockpiling units for the Holidays (as someone pointed out to me earlier when I described a similar scenario), and 2) if Microsoft makes a large price cut, as opposed to something like $50, it will have a huge impact.

Also, with even a small price cut, they'll outsell what they did last year given that and their software lineup. They did 500k and 1m in November and December respectively, so I'd bump up both of those a bit in your scenario. It all depends on what MS does with price.

 

[Stumpokapow]

just enough for a sequel

Well, besides the fact that Elebits was almost certainly intended as a loss leader considering both Konami's admissions that it was their way of learning the Wiimote and the fact that the Elebits team is still together and now making Dewy's Adventure... I'm pretty sure it was profitable in its own right.

240,000 copies * 10 bucks per copy (conservatively) = 2,400,000. Elebits was not substantially marketed... the only thing I remember were the EBGames Elebit stuffed animal pre-order bonuses.

Given that the magic number floated around online is that Wii games cost three million to make, and I'd hazard a guess that Elebits cost less than that (because there weren't a whole lot of assets, engine is not hyper-complex or really something that couldn't have been done on GameCube, voice acting is both low budget and there's not a lot of it, etc), it seems very likely that it was profitable.

 

[tha_con]

Why is there no PS2 sales data?

 

[Pureauthor]

So, looks like I'm late.

And I really don't have much to contribute now. Oh, well. Nice work, Nintendo. And good on RE4.