• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

NPD Sales Results for March 2015 [Up1: Nintendo numbers, PS4 placing]

i saw him making a pretty tame and commonly held argument which only comes across as controversial due to the charged hostility of the environment, whereas this is the definition of an empty shitpost which only serves to derail discussion and encourage everyone to play the man instead of the ball.

Shitposting, eh? As compared to your wonderfully insightful comments below? /sarcasm

we must never forget the order. those who ignore the past are doomed to repeat it. it's a warning from history.

febuary 20th shall always be the order remembrance day. we cannot let future generations fall into the same cycle of empty hope and unceasing despair.

when favourably compared with its rivals, mistress PS4 is mark cerny's engineering masterpiece.

when unfavourably compared with a PC, it's those AMD hacks holding it back.

sounds great for countries that don't have the internet.

the first next gen game worth buying a new console for and it brings all the performance problems of the last gen with it.

blows my mind how deeply entrenched in its aging preferences this forum can be sometimes.

the writing has been on the wall for some time. you don't have to read it, you don't have to look at it and you don't have to acknowledge it, but to argue it isn't there is taking a willful blindspot and turning it into a fullblown delusion.

one size no longer fits all.
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Combining PS3, X360, Ouya, Shield, Vita and Vita TV literally accounts for less than 15% of hardware sales so far this year.

Not worth tracking.

I'm positive Ouya sold the most out of the above.

It was number 1 on Amazon Canada.

I believe Amazon Chartz
 
The 360 and PS3 still have significant current and upcoming software support as shown by 6/10 of this months top selling software titles being available for them.

Might as well release them if you spent the money to make them. Plus, you have (like I mentioned) LATAM and EMEA that will still buy the old gen games. But not the US market (which is what I'm referring to when it comes to old gen being basically closed at this point).

EDIT:
more utterly baffling lack of self-awareness below

Talking to me?

No, not at all - the Posters proving ghst wrong on his stance people would rather attack the poster than the argument they present by attacking the poster.

Ahh... yeah this behavior is weird, unnecessary and dumb and really needs to stop.
 
Talking to me?

No, not at all - the Posters proving ghst wrong on his stance people would rather attack the poster than the argument they present by attacking the poster.

I agree that there are very good reasons why cross platform is definitely still a thing, I was disagreeing that asking about 360 or Ps3 numbers is akin to asking about the DC, because the 360 and PS3 are still relatively viable platforms from a publisher perspective, whereas the DC clearly is not.
 
lol Oh wow, burn.

The following quote was what ran through my mind when I saw his post targeting me.

"I'm used to having lots of ill-bred dogs bark at me. Most of the time I ignore them. But every once in a while, I turn around and I kick a dog for its own good."

-Reinhard von Lohengramm, Legend of the Galactic Heroes


But I digress.

Going back on topic, did we ever get numbers for the various Amiibo flavors? That seemed to be something that I don't think I've seen in any of the previous NPD threads.
 
Dunno, but if it's "just as bad" as Driveclub and Knack, I should probably check it out.

The Order is $30 at GameStop for PRO members right now, I'm tempted myself to buy it but don't know if I should wait till a $20 drop. $30 does seem good for a 8 hour campaign, just like the good old days only more beautiful....Dammit I don't know what to do, help me out Gaf, should I buy it?
 

Welfare

Member
The Order is $30 at GameStop for PRO members right now, I'm tempted myself to buy it but don't know if I should wait till a $20 drop. $30 does seem good for a 8 hour campaign, just like the good old days only more beautiful....Dammit I don't know what to do, help me out Gaf, should I buy it?

You'll be one of the 1,886 people that buy it in April.
 

TomShoe

Banned
The Order is $30 at GameStop for PRO members right now, I'm tempted myself to buy it but don't know if I should wait till a $20 drop. $30 does seem good for a 8 hour campaign, just like the good old days only more beautiful....Dammit I don't know what to do, help me out Gaf, should I buy it?

I don't know about you, but I'm waiting for it to hit $20 @ Best Buy before I pick it up. If it's already $30 by now, chances are it'll hit $20 soon enough.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Moving the subject on.

Annual%20Xbox_zpsw9se3gwm.jpg


Annual%20PlayStation_zpspa70ujh8.jpg


Annual%20Nintendo_zps81b3in8x.jpg
 
Moving the subject on.

*cool charts*

Do we have any data about yearly sales of NES and SNES? This year could be lowest yearly sales for Nintendos home consoles since the launch of N64 (Wii dies off completely and I just don't see how WiiU will be able to keep up with its last years pace without Mario kart and Smash.)
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Do we have any data about yearly sales of NES and SNES? This year could be lowest yearly sales for Nintendos home consoles since the launch of N64 (Wii dies off completely and I just don't see how WiiU will be able to keep up with its last years pace without Mario kart and Smash.)

Unfortunately I don't. Maybe someone else does.

NES: 34 million units sold in
SNES: 23.35 million units sold in.

(Includes North America, not just USA)
 
Do we have any data about yearly sales of NES and SNES? This year could be lowest yearly sales for Nintendos home consoles since the launch of N64 (Wii dies off completely and I just don't see how WiiU will be able to keep up with its last years pace without Mario kart and Smash.)

So, could be wrong, but I believe consistent NPD tracking didn't start up until 1995. There might have been other sources before then (I imagine there must have been?) but I've never seen an NPD data point earlier than PS1 1995.
 
I'm going through older NPD threads and compiling some data for personal reference. I'm guessing there isn't a more concrete database of info anywhere right?

ZhugeEX, those graphs paint an interesting picture. What's the general consensus (or even just your opinion) on what year a console's sales will peak, especially in regards to PS4/X1?
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
I'm going through older NPD threads and compiling some data for personal reference. I'm guessing there isn't a more concrete database of info anywhere right?

Just be aware that the NPD Group made adjustments to numbers regularly. So some older numbers may be incorrect.

ZhugeEX, those graphs paint an interesting picture. What's the general consensus (or even just your opinion) on what year a console's sales will peak, especially in regards to PS4/X1?

Personally I believe that we won't see PS2 or Wii like peaks on any console this gen. In fact I'm only going with 6 million+ this year for PS4 which is under PS1/PS2 peak years. As to 2016 and beyond I'm not entirely sure but its highly likely that sell through could be higher than 2015, It's very difficult to say what will happen though.

For reference here is my WORLDWIDE 5 year forecast for the generation as a whole.

You can apply a rough estimate of ~60% for PS4, 30% for X1 and ~10% for Wii U. Margin for error, give or take 5%.

5YearforecastREV2_zpsoljkq8vq.jpg
 
Just be aware that the NPD made adjustments to numbers regularly. So some older numbers may be incorrect.



Personally I believe that we won't see PS2 or Wii like peaks on any console this gen. In fact I'm only going with 6 million+ this year for PS4 which is under PS1/PS2 peak years. As to 2016 and beyond I'm not entirely sure but its likely that sell through could be higher than 2015, It's very difficult to say what will happen though.

For reference here is my WORLDWIDE 5 year forecast for the generation as a whole.

You can apply a rough estimate of ~60% for PS4, 30% for X1 and ~10% for Wii U. Margin for error, give or take 5%.

5YearforecastREV2_zpsoljkq8vq.jpg

Interesting stuff. Thanks for the heads-up on the NPD data changes.

Is your 6+ million prediction for PS4 anticipating a price drop?
 

ascii42

Member

You forgot the Dreamcast again :p

Interesting forecast. I'd like to think it'll be closer to Gen 6, but I guess we'll see. Hard to say how long this gen will last, and what kind of price point they'll be able to get to. I'd think the 360 could have outsold the PS2 in the US if they had been able to get as cheap as the PS2 did, but I guess that's a lot harder when you have things like built in storage and such.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
You forgot the Dreamcast again :p

Interesting forecast. I'd like to think it'll be closer to Gen 6, but I guess we'll see. Hard to say how long this gen will last, and what kind of price point they'll be able to get to. I'd think the 360 could have outsold the PS2 in the US if they had been able to get as cheap as the PS2 did, but I guess that's a lot harder when you have things like built in storage and such.

Even if i added the dreamcast you wouldn't notice a difference on that graph :p

Yeh the X360 really was on track to match and even exceed the PS2 but then next gen happened and since then all last gen consoles have seen sales decline drastically. Obvious why that has happened.

The forecast I have is based on historical data, financial reports, market research reports and estimates from myself and so far I've been right, going back to 2014 I was one of the crazy ones who estimated that PS4 would be over 19m and X1 would be 11.7m.

Whilst others like Wedbush estimated that PS4 would only get to 16.5m.
 
Personally I believe that we won't see PS2 or Wii like peaks on any console this gen. In fact I'm only going with 6 million+ this year for PS4 which is under PS1/PS2 peak years.
This is a safe bet. Will we ever see numbers like this again? I don't think so. PS2 and Wii were before the boom of smartphones, tablets and Steam as it is now. Gaming has changed a lot. The biggest surprise is that console gaming still seems to be healthy.
As to 2016 and beyond I'm not entirely sure but its highly likely that sell through could be higher than 2015, It's very difficult to say what will happen though.
2016 will be higher if they lower the price (they will), add some interesting new stuff (VR & AR) and attack the casuals (rock band, buzz, whatever).
For reference here is my WORLDWIDE 5 year forecast for the generation as a whole.
You can apply a rough estimate of ~60% for PS4, 30% for X1 and ~10% for Wii U.
Sounds shocking first, but with X1 on par in the US and everywhere else struggling or dead this seems absolutely realistic. Things can change of course with a must-have for x1 (but I can not imagine what that could be), also, Nintendo is the dark horse. If they come out with a new console with a really new and cool feature this could generate some trouble. Nobody expected the Wii, and if someone can do a freak move, in positive or negative way, it's Nintendo.
Bonus Question: Will the steam machine count as PC or console?
This is really well done and very informative. Thank you.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
This is really well done and very informative. Thank you.

Thanks for the kind words.

Yup, I do expect 2016 to be higher, it's just a case of "how much" higher.

Of course my forecast can change and I expect it to do so. But for now I'm settling on 150m ish by end of 2019.
 
Unfortunately I don't. Maybe someone else does.

NES: 34 million units sold in
SNES: 23.35 million units sold in.

(Includes North America, not just USA)

So, could be wrong, but I believe consistent NPD tracking didn't start up until 1995. There might have been other sources before then (I imagine there must have been?) but I've never seen an NPD data point earlier than PS1 1995.

Well that's a shame.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
i thought ps4 sold twice as much as the x1 in the U.S. That looks like that it only sold a few hundred thousands more. i guess i had the wrong idea :)

You're thinking of worldwide where it is very close to 2:1 ratio.

In the USA it's close but the PS4 is still leading by over 700,000 units.

MARCH%20FINAL_zpsdb05rn6w.jpg


March1_zps4rjgbzrl.jpg
 
Zhuge, the PS2 dropped from $300 to $200 in May 2002. I see that their 2002 sales were about a third higher than their 2001 sales in the US, but do you happen to have the data comparing the 12 months before the cut to the 12 months after? Just wondering how the cut affected their sales trajectory. U.S. and WW, if it's not too much trouble. <3
 

hawk2025

Member
Sales are very very close in the USA. It takes just one really good holiday for Microsoft to take the lead.


A holiday season that closes a (what I'm assuming will be) between 800,000 and 1,000,000 gap isn't just really good, it would be unprecedented.

ZhugeEX, can you produce "January aligned" graphs of PS4 and Xbox One monthly sales?

What I'm thinking is: How was the gap in January 2014 versus January 2015, and how it has evolved over the past couple of months compared to 2014. Does that make sense?
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Zhuge, the PS2 dropped from $300 to $200 in May 2002. I see that their 2002 sales were about a third higher than their 2001 sales in the US, but do you happen to have the data comparing the 12 months before the cut to the 12 months after? Just wondering how the cut affected their sales trajectory. U.S. and WW, if it's not too much trouble. <3

Not right now for worldwide buddy. I got to sleep and work in the morning (UK time). Will probably get this done tomorrow evening If i get time. I don't have all the numbers to hand right now.

For US here ya go-

PS2%20price_zpsbs1jte2v.jpg
 
He gets banned quite frequently, imagine he must be on his final warning for perm or something close to it.

*shrugs*

They're kind of persistent though, like cockroaches.

I've made it a habit to make liberal use of the forum's "ignore user" feature.


A holiday season that closes a (what I'm assuming will be) between 800,000 and 1,000,000 gap isn't just really good, it would be unprecedented.

ZhugeEX, can you produce "January aligned" graphs of PS4 and Xbox One monthly sales?

What I'm thinking is: How was the gap in January 2014 versus January 2015, and how it has evolved over the past couple of months compared to 2014. Does that make sense?

Worldwide or US/North America?
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
A holiday season that closes a (what I'm assuming will be) between 800,000 and 1,000,000 gap isn't just really good, it would be unprecedented.

ZhugeEX, can you produce "January aligned" graphs of PS4 and Xbox One monthly sales?

What I'm thinking is: How was the gap in January 2014 versus January 2015, and how it has evolved over the past couple of months compared to 2014. Does that make sense?

Do you mean something like this? That shows the cumulative gap over time.

Highest the gap has been - 1.13m (Oct 2014)
Lowest the gap has been - 0.19m (Dec 2013)
(Numbers rounded)

cumulative%20gap_zpsjply2mdy.jpg


Theoretically speaking the gap could be over 1.25m come October should PS4 continue to outsell X1 in the same way it did during 2014. Of course I'm expecting October (Halo) and the holiday season to hinder further growth for PS4.
 
I can't understand this assumption that BF: Hardline has 'sold well' any more than people's assumption that it bombed hard.

Sure, it's got good first month sales but of course it is going to sell well initially because of the BF name. I expect it is going to sell considerably less than BF3/4.
 
Top Bottom