Xbone is down even being sold at $299.A slim model will mean 2016 is up YoY. Why would it be down big YoY even without it when it's only down 5% YTD so far?
A price drop will happen this year, and more likely than not, a Slim model will accompany that.
Xbox 360 sales in January - May 2009: 1,380,000
Xbox 360 sales in June - October 2009: 1,261,200
Xbox 360 sales in January - May 2010: 1,473,200
Xbox 360 sales in June (Slim launch) - October (before Kinect) 2010: 2,060,900
And that was with no price cut accompanying the slim model.
Two things are possible to happen this year. One is a guarantee, the other is highly likely. Both of them happening is the smartest thing MS can do.
The guarantee is a price cut to $299. The highly likely one is a slim model.
Unless the price cut go to $249 than it won't change the actual situation.