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NPD Sales Results for March 2016

Sterok

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Nov 3, 2014
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I just realized Fire Emblem is going to end up as the biggest exclusive of the first 4 months of 2016. What a weird time we're in.

What's the consensus on what will take April, Division or Dark Souls? I'd imagine Division would come out on top, but I don't know its leg situation is.
 

Kill3r7

Member
Jun 19, 2014
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I just realized Fire Emblem is going to end up as the biggest exclusive of the first 4 months of 2016. What a weird time we're in.

What's the consensus on what will take April, Division or Dark Souls? I'd imagine Division would come out on top, but I don't know its leg situation is.

I think DS3 has a legitimate shot at taking the number 1 spot. It depends on how big a drop will the Division have.
 

AnthonypUK

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Feb 18, 2014
1,199
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0
Microsoft?
I mean I know the new IP statement doesn't say too much but considering the final LTDs of both Ryse and SO, especially RYSE, it looks promising so far, especially if it keeps pace.

A Microsoft PR statement is your only evidence?

And comparing against 2 games in SO and Ryse?

SO - So successful Insomniac went back to the R&C well, and are now making VR games, microsoft doesn't seem to have green lit a sequel.

Ryse - So successful Crytek nearly went broke?

Again its only one indicator, but QB is below Pokken and Fifa 16 on the 360 in the YTD's for 2016 for Amazon, theres nothing that shows its selling well, its down there with SFV.
 

CosmicQueso

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Feb 16, 2010
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Microsoft?
I mean I know the new IP statement doesn't say too much but considering the final LTDs of both Ryse and SO, especially RYSE, it looks promising so far, especially if it keeps pace.

 
Jun 15, 2015
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I heard that Ryse had a good launch week sales (correct me if I'm wrong) and sold over 1 million (correct me if I'm wrong.)

If QB being the best selling new IP (which I assume also means fastest) is a true statement by Microsoft than that would mean in a lot less time, if it keeps this pace up,it could cross 1 million.

But of course Microsoft did not give actual numbers so we'll have to wait until may to find out what best selling new IP really means.
 
Jun 15, 2015
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A Microsoft PR statement is your only evidence?

And comparing against 2 games in SO and Ryse?

SO - So successful Insomniac went back to the R&C well, and are now making VR games, microsoft doesn't seem to have green lit a sequel.

Ryse - So successful Crytek nearly went broke?

Again its only one indicator, but QB is below Pokken and Fifa 16 on the 360 in the YTD's for 2016 for Amazon, theres nothing that shows its selling well, its down there with SFV.

I wouldn't use Amazon for software.

Also didn't Ryse sell over 1 million and have a good launch week? I heard this before anybody have numbers?
 

Abdiel

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Nov 2, 2013
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Quantum Break has had zero movement since launch. I can safely say that almost all, if not all, the bundles picked up in in my home store were accompanied by a trade in of an existing system. Someone going to the white model. The game hasn't had any kind of energy behind it, no buzz.

Ratchet has been a likewise fairly muted launch, but the cheaper price, existing ip, and family friendly aspect all help a bit more. Also, the movie might help too. Our Sony rep certainly seems to hope so. They're hopeful that it will garner new energy for the brand.

But seriously. Those division and quantum break bundles are more wasted space on our shelves. Sigh. Talk about failing to move the needle.



Also. I'm thinking of making a thread on the retail perspective of the new console stuff. But I think I'll wait until we have more info on the other systems.

I'm just getting exasperated with some of the blanket statements about market perspectives from people that have no idea how this stuff works.

Cosmic and I have traded comments on it.
 

chubigans

y'all should be ashamed
Dec 7, 2006
27,115
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1,290
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Abdiel said:
Also. I'm thinking of making a thread on the retail perspective of the new console stuff. But I think I'll wait until we have more info on the other systems.

I'm just getting exasperated with some of the blanket statements about market perspectives from people that have no idea how this stuff works.

Cosmic and I have traded comments on it.

Man that would be super interesting, I'd be all for that. Thanks for the post!
 

Bitch Pudding

Member
Oct 3, 2014
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570
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Also. I'm thinking of making a thread on the retail perspective of the new console stuff. But I think I'll wait until we have more info on the other systems.

I'm just getting exasperated with some of the blanket statements about market perspectives from people that have no idea how this stuff works.

Cosmic and I have traded comments on it.

I'd appreciate that. And thanks of course for your insights!
 

cilonen

Member
Mar 24, 2007
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0
I wouldn't use Amazon for software.

Also didn't Ryse sell over 1 million and have a good launch week? I heard this before anybody have numbers?

Ryse did not make the top 10 all formats NPD in launch month (Nov '13) but I don't have numbers.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...om-24-percent-decline-but-industry-sales-rise

Edit: There's also this from Cervat Yerli saying Crytek weren't happy with Xbox One sales for Ryse and that a sequel could be multi platform

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/crytek-we-are-not-100-happy-with-xbox-one-sales/1100-6421586/
 

Rymuth

Member
Jun 8, 2014
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Also. I'm thinking of making a thread on the retail perspective of the new console stuff. But I think I'll wait until we have more info on the other systems.
Do it, Abdiel. We can never have too much info from your perspective (unless it, you know, hurts your job or something like Aqua)
 

kswiston

Member
Mar 25, 2005
35,134
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I just realized Fire Emblem is going to end up as the biggest exclusive of the first 4 months of 2016. What a weird time we're in.

What's the consensus on what will take April, Division or Dark Souls? I'd imagine Division would come out on top, but I don't know its leg situation is.

I think Dark Souls 3 will top it. The Division was out at the beginning of March, and debuted under 2M. I doubt it breaks 400k next month. I wouldn't be surprised if it was closer to 200k.

EDIT: Steam version has moved 40k copies in the past 2.5 weeks, compared to around 700k in March.
 
Jun 15, 2015
284
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0
Quantum Break has had zero movement since launch. I can safely say that almost all, if not all, the bundles picked up in in my home store were accompanied by a trade in of an existing system. Someone going to the white model. The game hasn't had any kind of energy behind it, no buzz.

Ratchet has been a likewise fairly muted launch, but the cheaper price, existing ip, and family friendly aspect all help a bit more. Also, the movie might help too. Our Sony rep certainly seems to hope so. They're hopeful that it will garner new energy for the brand.

But seriously. Those division and quantum break bundles are more wasted space on our shelves. Sigh. Talk about failing to move the needle.



Also. I'm thinking of making a thread on the retail perspective of the new console stuff. But I think I'll wait until we have more info on the other systems.

I'm just getting exasperated with some of the blanket statements about market perspectives from people that have no idea how this stuff works.

Cosmic and I have traded comments on it.

Hmm, thought the cheap price and good reviews would have given Ratchet more momentum.

Good game though, best Ratchet since UYA.
 

Figboy79

Aftershock LA
I'm generally not big into sales numbers, but who the fuck is buying GTAV?! Who?!

My god, that game is an animal. I admit I own the PS3 version, as well as the PS4 version, but wow, I am genuinely amazed/impressed at how it manages to be in the top 10 every month. I wonder if it's a symbiotic thing with new console owners?

GTAV is a great game, and perhaps people that passed up on it on Xbox 360 and PS3 are picking it up with their Xbox ONE's and PS4's? Not bundles, just grabbing the game along with the console. I actually own the digital version of GTAV, because I think I grabbed it on one of the PSN sales, but this is about physical copies. Amazing.
 

PanicFreak

Member
May 10, 2013
5,561
1
0
In the embrace of a wind hug.
Quantum Break has had zero movement since launch. I can safely say that almost all, if not all, the bundles picked up in in my home store were accompanied by a trade in of an existing system. Someone going to the white model. The game hasn't had any kind of energy behind it, no buzz.

Ratchet has been a likewise fairly muted launch, but the cheaper price, existing ip, and family friendly aspect all help a bit more. Also, the movie might help too. Our Sony rep certainly seems to hope so. They're hopeful that it will garner new energy for the brand.

But seriously. Those division and quantum break bundles are more wasted space on our shelves. Sigh. Talk about failing to move the needle.

I wonder how much money Microsoft stands to lose on Quantum Break. It's been in production for a really long time and I can't imagine that the game will breakeven when you factor in the Xbox division's cost of capital.

Does anyone think that there was anything that they could have done to improve the sales?
 

slavesnyder

Member
Nov 18, 2013
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I wonder how much money Microsoft stands to lose on Quantum Break. It's been in production for a really long time and I can't imagine that the game will breakeven when you factor in the Xbox division's cost of capital.

Does anyone think that there was anything that they could have done to improve the sales?
Marketing would have helped, but would also have set the recoupment bar even higher.

Also: thank you, Abdiel
 

Welfare

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Feb 24, 2014
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I wonder how much money Microsoft stands to lose on Quantum Break. It's been in production for a really long time and I can't imagine that the game will breakeven when you factor in the Xbox division's cost of capital.

Does anyone think that there was anything that they could have done to improve the sales?

Not delay the game past 2014 and not let Remedy recast the game? Maybe scrap that TV section or reduce it significantly after the drop of the whole TV TV TV mentality of pre launch?

Quantum Break and other games like it (Order 1886) should not have launched past 2014. Perfect spectacle game for the honeymoon phase of the generation, average game for mid life cycle.
 

Sterok

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Nov 3, 2014
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April will be a fun battle of mid-tier exclusives between Quantum Break, Ratchet, Star Fox, and Bravely Second. Not sure who will win between Quantum and Ratchet, but I feel confident in guessing Bravely will lose.
 

Chobel

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Mar 26, 2013
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I wonder how much money Microsoft stands to lose on Quantum Break. It's been in production for a really long time and I can't imagine that the game will breakeven when you factor in the Xbox division's cost of capital.

Does anyone think that there was anything that they could have done to improve the sales?

Steam release. They can still do it and it will definitely help sales big time (after they fix the PC version issues of course)
 

Steverulez

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Dec 13, 2006
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I wonder how much money Microsoft stands to lose on Quantum Break. It's been in production for a really long time and I can't imagine that the game will breakeven when you factor in the Xbox division's cost of capital.

Does anyone think that there was anything that they could have done to improve the sales?

I think when trying to build a new brand you have to have some consideration (particularly with the style of QB) thats its unlikely to be a giant seller at first.

I think they overestimated the critical reception, had they known some of the reviews they got they wouldn't have done an early embargo and that might have impacted sales but i'd be legitimately surprised if they thought it was going to be the next Halo or something. Its tough to know how much if any loss they are going to make on it when we don't know much it cost to produce, Remedy have been staffing up but aren't exactly a giant studio.

They are better off bundling the game in their base sku (which they are doing) over the summer at a good price, maybe stick Halo 5 in, clear out the other bundles which I don't think add much and work towards building a bigger opening for a sequel.

The game is pretty fascinating having played it, I get why it doesn't resonate with some people though.

Not delay the game past 2014 and not let Remedy recast the game? Maybe scrap that TV section or reduce it significantly after the drop of the whole TV TV TV mentality of pre launch?

Quantum Break and other games like it (Order 1886) should not have launched past 2014. Perfect spectacle game for the honeymoon phase of the generation, average game for mid life cycle.

One of the developers on twitter said they only had one delay which was into 2016. I know there was an Xbox Wire post that said 2014 but... Remedy have said it only had 1 delay before.

Also the re-casting was great, the performances were really good imo. You're assuming there would have been a game to actually launch if they didn't delay it (which according to them they didn't in 2014)

Steam release. They can still do it and it will definitely help sales big time (after they fix the PC version issues of course)

I am wondering if they might try and salvage PC sales with a Steam release...
 

Welfare

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Feb 24, 2014
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One of the developers on twitter said they only had one delay which was into 2016. I know there was an Xbox Wire post that said 2014 but... Remedy have said it only had 1 delay before.

Also the re-casting was great, the performances were really good imo. You're assuming there would have been a game to actually launch if they didn't delay it (which according to them they didn't in 2014)

I thought they delayed it from 2014, and people speculated it was to 2015, but it was really 2016.

No way was Quantum Break originally a 2015 launch back in 2013.

Also MS owns QB, so a Steam release is impossible.
 

get2sammyb

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Feb 9, 2009
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New IP is tough, you have to set your expectations appropriately. Until Dawn didn't do exceptionally well, but it was well-liked critically and performed above its achievable expectations. As a result, Sony has a new brand now, which will surely get a sequel.

If Quantum Break's expectations were similarly reasonable, then I'm sure it'll hit them and be considered a success.
 

Loris146

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Dec 6, 2012
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New IP is tough, you have to set your expectations appropriately. Until Dawn didn't do exceptionally well, but it was well-liked critically and performed above its achievable expectations. As a result, Sony has a new brand now, which will surely get a sequel.

If Quantum Break's expectations were similarly reasonable, then I'm sure it'll hit them and be considered a success.

No way.
 

Steverulez

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Dec 13, 2006
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I thought they delayed it from 2014, and people speculated it was to 2015, but it was really 2016.

No way was Quantum Break originally a 2015 launch back in 2013.

Also MS owns QB, so a Steam release is impossible.

As I said there was an Xbox Wire post that mentioned 2014, but Remedy have said a couple of times it was only delayed once... (here is a more recent source of that) I think with some of the changes they made (TV show, re-casting, game originally had 4 playable characters, then 3) perhaps they knew it wasn't coming out all that soon - or Remedy weren't really aware of that Xbox Wire post, idk.

It was in development for 4 years, they were very quiet on it after VGAs 2013 (which was only a tiny snippet) and Gamescom 2014 where they said it was due in 2015, presumably thats when a lot of changes were made - in particularly dropping it down to 1 playable character plus the Junction Point bits.

MS have supported Steam in their past, Remedy have had a lot of success there, I think it might get an exception to help build it up for a possible next one. Ori DE is getting a Steam release, they still launch new stuff in some of their RTS games on Steams too
 

jayu26

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Feb 24, 2013
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New IP is tough, you have to set your expectations appropriately. Until Dawn didn't do exceptionally well, but it was well-liked critically and performed above its achievable expectations. As a result, Sony has a new brand now, which will surely get a sequel.

If Quantum Break's expectations were similarly reasonable, then I'm sure it'll hit them and be considered a success.

I don't think Sony's expectations of Until Dawn sales were even in the ballpark of MS's expectations of Quantum Break sales. Sony basically gave up on Until Dawn before release. Only the positive word of mouth saved it. Whereas, Quantum Break's ads were everywhere for almost a month.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Jul 7, 2015
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April will be a fun battle of mid-tier exclusives between Quantum Break, Ratchet, Star Fox, and Bravely Second. Not sure who will win between Quantum and Ratchet, but I feel confident in guessing Bravely will lose.

Bravely won't be good. Not even bad, but i Can see a barely sufficient Launch...
 

Rymuth

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Jun 8, 2014
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New IP is tough, you have to set your expectations appropriately. Until Dawn didn't do exceptionally well, but it was well-liked critically and performed above its achievable expectations. As a result, Sony has a new brand now, which will surely get a sequel.

If Quantum Break's expectations were similarly reasonable, then I'm sure it'll hit them and be considered a success.


Lol, no
 

PanicFreak

Member
May 10, 2013
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In the embrace of a wind hug.
I think that Microsoft was hoping that Quantum Break would get outstanding reviews and have very good legs off of strong WOM. I agree with Welfare that this game should have been released earlier but that would only happen in an idealized version of our world. The game wasn't ready in time for the window where it would have succeeded. Ironically, I think that exact same thing affected the sales of Alan Wake.

When I look at Microsoft's future games, I don't see any new IP that will be successful outside of Scalebound (maybe).
 

get2sammyb

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Feb 9, 2009
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Well, fair enough. If there expectations were high then I've no idea what they were smoking - it never looked like it'd be a huge hit to me.

When I look at Microsoft's future games, I don't see any new IP that will be successful outside of Scalebound (maybe).

We need to see more, but I doubt it. Scalebound looks like the kind of game that will get a huge up-swell of hype on sites like this, but will struggle outside of it.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Jul 7, 2015
5,237
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twitter.com
Just checked, the XB1 sold 187K last April. Now, it may be flat YoY, down or even up. A bit hard to predict, but it should be around that region.

And it sold 115,000 in April 2014... and the PS4 sold 174,000 last April.
I don't see why XB1 should sell at 2015 April level, if was barely up YOY this month.

I mean, for sell 187,000, XBO should have a -3% decrease in weekly sales. Why you think so?

Last year seem legit XBO did better in weekly sales because March was a normal month with XBO at $350 and Battlefield Hardline which sold 420,000, while April was the Mortal Kombat month which sold 515,000 and the insane deals.

This time March was way stronger, with The Division witch sold over 870,000 on XBO including bundle, and the official price drop the last 2 weeks.

What have XBO in April better than in March?

In term of software The Division will crush Dark Souls III and Quantum Break combined.
And the pricedrop was already a thing in March...

The only difference is that this time the pricedrop and the deals are for 4 weeks and not 2 weeks, but still, considering March is almost always WAY bigger than April, hemm...

I just don't see why XBO should drop by only < 5% in weekly sales.

The usual drop is 30% more or less, look at PS4 in 2014 and 2015. I can see a 20-15% drop, but a super small drop, let alone a flat trend seem just too unlucky.
 

Welfare

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Feb 24, 2014
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Maybe I should drop this dank March to April comparison soon.

Sneak peak. Software has no effect on the weekly average drop. Also, Xbox One weekly sales actually went up 2% in April 2015 from March. That's almost unheard of. Wii did it in 2008 with Mario Kart Wii, which was also in a period of time where the Wii was constantly doing insane because supply was < demand, but besides that, any deviation from "average" is only thanks to hardware related deals.
 

slavesnyder

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Nov 18, 2013
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We need to see more, but I doubt it. Scalebound looks like the kind of game that will get a huge up-swell of hype on sites like this, but will struggle outside of it.
Scalebound feels like a strange echo from 360's early nippon shopping tour.
I just see impulse buying but no strategy here.
 

Steverulez

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Dec 13, 2006
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Scalebound feels like a strange echo from 360's early nippon shopping tour.
I just see impulse buying but no strategy here.

Do you mean impulse buying of games/IPs?

Platinum are an incredibly well regarded developer, generally make good/great games... Microsoft don't have an action RPG so it fits their line-up well and dragons are pretty bitchin' too.

I don't think theres much impulse at all, if anything it shows their strategy is diversification in the line-up. It would be much easier to go and make another FPS to sit alongside Halo which will sell probably a guaranteed baseline of X units, instead they are trying to expand their portfolio. They don't really have much choice but to go after new IPs, they want to own IPs, I think they consider Platinum a safe bet for making something good and are happy to shoulder the burden of risk associated with that.

Its probably less of a risk than Quantum Break and Sunset Overdrive because of the TV integration and humour/art style.

I doubt Microsoft go into these projects with their heads in the clouds over sales. Obviously you have a budget, a break-even level and you believe in your product to be good and sell, but if they aren't willing to take risks then they shouldn't bother at all. Im not saying Scalebound will be a hit, but it fits them pretty well i'd say.

A more obvious questionable strategy is why LH spent so long on Fable Legends only to shut them down close to launch and why Press Play also went and made a MP game that got them closed.
 

Welfare

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Feb 24, 2014
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Actually, as an aside, I've looked at every March to April for the 6th, 7th, and 8th gen, and these were all the times April's weekly average was higher than March's.

Code:
2004

XBX March: 198,400 / 5 = 39,680
XBX April: 297,400 / 4 = 74,350

Weekly average up 87%

Code:
Notable Impacts in April

Full 4 weeks of new price at $149. Drop started week 5 in March.

Code:
2006

360 March: 192k / 5 = 38,400
360 April: 295k / 4 = 73,750

Weekly average up 92%

Code:
Notable Impacts in April

Low supply finally fixed.

Code:
2007

360 March: 199k / 5 = 39,800
360 April: 174k / 4 = 43,500

Weekly average up 9%

Wii March: 259k / 5 = 51,800
Wii April: 360k / 4 = 90,000

Weekly average up 74%

Code:
Notable Impacts in April

360: 120GB Elite model @ $479 released in week 4.

Wii: Demand>>>Supply. Nintendo sent a big shipment this month.

Code:
2008

Wii March: 721k / 5 = 144,200
Wii April: 714k / 4 = 178,500

Weekly average up 24%

Code:
Notable Impacts in April

Wii: Again. Demand>>>Supply. Nintendo sent a big shipment this month.

Code:
2009

PS2 March: 112k / 5 = 22,400
PS2 April: 172k / 4 = 43,000

Weekly average up 92%

Code:
Notable Impacts in April

Full 4 weeks of new price at $99. Drop started week 5 in March.

Code:
2015

One March: 229k / 5 = 45,800
One April: 187k / 4 = 46,750

Weekly average up 2%

Code:
Notable Impacts in April

[3 weeks] Gamestop Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $125 towards Xbox One. [$225]

[1 week] Best Buy Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $175 towards Xbox One [$175]

And as a note, the XB1 this year.

Code:
2016

One March: 242k / 5 = 48,400
One April: ??? / 4 = ???

Weekly average up ???%

Code:
Notable Impacts in April

Full 4 weeks of a temporary price of $50. Drop started week 4 in March.

[3 weeks] Gamestop Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $100 towards Xbox One. [$199]


I thought there was a Wii bundle, but it was MK with the Wii wheel.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Jul 7, 2015
5,237
0
0
Italy
twitter.com

Great post, as always.

So well, as you said, in 11 years this is happen "only" 7 times, and only with very important things like new model / pricedrop / random deals.

But worth of notes i believe is that of those 7 times, only one was from 8 gen, and was only up by 2% in weekly sales, this even with those insane deals for $125 / $175 ...

I believe this just show that in the recent year the rule "March >>>>> April" is becomed way stronger than in gen 7 and gen 6.

What i can say more? I already said my opinion above... i would like to know you expect from April.

And if you expect an increase in weekly sales, or a drop, or i don't know, i would like to know how big / small you think it will be.
 

Castef

Mambar
Sep 7, 2011
5,792
313
990
Italy
it.ign.com
April will be a fun battle of mid-tier exclusives between Quantum Break, Ratchet, Star Fox, and Bravely Second. Not sure who will win between Quantum and Ratchet, but I feel confident in guessing Bravely will lose.

Quantum Break and R&C... "Mid tier exclusive".

Ok.
 

slavesnyder

Member
Nov 18, 2013
4,304
0
355
Do you mean impulse buying of games/IPs?
Platinum are an incredibly well regarded developer, generally make good/great games... Microsoft don't have an action RPG so it fits their line-up well and dragons are pretty bitchin' too.
I don't think theres much impulse at all, if anything it shows their strategy is diversification in the line-up.
basically yes.
They were in need for content and came around with a game that doesn't fit their portfolio. You could say this means diversity, okay, but for me it looks like trial and error, or shotgun shooting. Platinum is an awesome developer who not really makes big hits. I wish Scalebound all the luck in the world, but with a platform that is by no means associated it will get really tough.
It would be much easier to go and make another FPS to sit alongside Halo which will sell probably a guaranteed baseline of X units, instead they are trying to expand their portfolio. They don't really have much choice but to go after new IPs, they want to own IPs, I think they consider Platinum a safe bet for making something good and are happy to shoulder the burden of risk associated with that.
Maybe at this point, another exclusive shooter would have helped more. Xbox is heavily associated with shooters, but in the end there are not so many XboxOne exclusives here. It would have helped the western market far more than Scalebound. And Japan is lost anyway.
Its probably less of a risk than Quantum Break and Sunset Overdrive because of the TV integration and humour/art style.
Absolutely not. On paper, Quantum Break and Sunset look fine. The TV-stuff was an USP nobody actually wanted, but the game had huge potential, looked nice and had some clever mechanics. Sunset Overdrive is stupid fun, college humour. I don't know why this would have been risky.

I doubt Microsoft go into these projects with their heads in the clouds over sales. Obviously you have a budget, a break-even level and you believe in your product to be good and sell, but if they aren't willing to take risks then they shouldn't bother at all. Im not saying Scalebound will be a hit, but it fits them pretty well i'd say.
So far they did not treat their 3rd party exclusives with great care. Believe in your product looks different. I hope Scalebound gets a good treatment and will be successful, but I feel it will drown, because it doesn't fit.
A more obvious questionable strategy is why LH spent so long on Fable Legends only to shut them down close to launch and why Press Play also went and made a MP game that got them closed.
Well, here I agree. I also want to see what kind of game the pirate thing from rare will be. I sense heavy free to play mechanics.
 

demigod

Member
Apr 17, 2007
8,677
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Quantum Break and R&C... "Mid tier exclusive".

Ok.

R&C imo is mid tier since its a reimagining of the first. QB is higher tier imo. The game was hyped to hell by gaf, remedy and ms. Anything less than 400k npd for this title is bomba material.